tourism pei october 24, 2019 · 2019ytd 2018 2017 2016 ns nb nfld pei. confederation bridge 22...

Chris K. Jones

Director of Strategic Initiatives Tourism PEIOctober 24, 2019

Global Tourism Economy (2018)

2

Source: (1) UNWTO, Tourism Highlights, 2019 Edition , (2) World Travel and Tourism Council, and (3) UNWTO, January 21, 2019 Press Release

Region Arrivals Receipts (US$)

Americas 216M (+2%) 334 billion (+0%)

Europe 710M (+5%) 570 billion (+5%)

Asia and the Pacific 348M (+7%) 435 billion (+7%)

Africa 67M (+7%) 36 billion (+2%)

Middle East 60M (+5%) 73 billion (+4%)

• 1.401 billion international tourist arrivals (+5%).1

• USD $1.451 trillion in international tourism receipts (+4.4%).1

• The worlds 3rd largest exporter.1

• 10.4% of global GDP.2

• 319 million jobs (one in ten of all jobs).2

• Tourism (+3.9%) is the second fastest growing sector in the world.2

Global Travel Purpose

3

Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights, 2019 Edition

Consumer Travel Trends

• Travel “to change”Live like a local, quest for authenticity and transformation.

• Travel ‘”to show”Instagramable moments, experiences and destinations.

• Pursuit of a healthy lifeWalking, wellness and sports tourism.

• Rise of the “access” economy

• Solo travel & multigenerational travelAs a result of aging population and single households.

• Rising awareness of sustainabilityZero plastic and climate change.

Canadian Tourism Economy (2018)

4

Sources: (1) Statistics Canada, Frontier Counts;(2) Statistics Canada National Tourism Indicators 2018;(3) Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0230-01 Tourism demand in Canada; (4) Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0232-01 Employment generated by tourism; (5) Conference Board of Canada, Travel Markets Outlook Autumn 2018/Winter 2019.

Top Markets (1) Arrivals

US 14.4M (+1.4%)

UK 791.6K (-3.3%)

China 737.4K (+6.1%)

France 604.2K (+4.7%)

Germany 405.9K (+1.1%)

Mexico 404.4K (4.9%)

Australia 348.9K (-2.5%)

India 287.4K (+14.7%)

Japan 251.2K (-14.9%)

• 21.13M International arrivals (+1.2%) – all-time high1

• 14.4M US arrivals (+1.4%)1

• +3.7% growth in air arrivals direct from overseas1

• 2.1% of Canada’s GDP2

• +0.5% growth in the number of tourism jobs2

• $95.32 billion in tourism expenditures (+2.8%)3

• +1.7% growth in visits forecasted for 20204

Atlantic Tourism Outlook

5

Short Term Outlook % Growth

2019 2020 2021

CanadaVisits

$

1.8%

5.0%

1.7%

4.6%

1.7%

4.7%

NLVisits

$

2.2%

4.8%

0.9%

3.9%

0.5%

3.4%

NSVisits

$

1.4%

4.9%

1.2%

4.1%

1.3%

4.1%

NBVisits

$

1.3%

3.4%

1.2%

3.5%

1.2%

3.5%

PEVisits

$

2.3%

5.3%

1.7%

4.4%

1.7%

4.3%

Source: Conference Board of Canada. Travel Markets Outlook Autumn 2018/Winter 2019

The Conference Board of Canada’s short to mid-term outlook for tourism is positive, but growth is expected to slow:

• Nationally, visitation is expected to grow by more than 1.7% a year until 2021.

• Revenues are expected to grow by 4.6% annually.

• All of Atlantic Canada is expected to grow at a slower pace than country as a whole.

• Growth rates for PEI are forecast to be comparable to national growth rates.

PEI Visitation and Revenue Estimates

7

Source: PEI Tourism Value and Volume Model Estimates

2018Forecast

% Change

Tourism Volume (Total Non-Resident Visits: Persons)

1,578,400 + 0.7%

Tourism Value (Total Revenue: $ million)

$486.2(f) + 5.7%

Tourism Visitation on PEI

8

1.23M

1.30M1.33M

1.41M

1.48M

1.57M 1.58M

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Annual Growth Rate = 4.3%

+28.7%

Source: Department of Economic Growth, Tourism and Culture. PEI Tourism Volume Model

Tourism Revenues (CAD Millions)

9

$380.4 $381.6

$401.1 $405.6

$432.9

$460.1

$486.2 (F)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+27.8%Average Annual Growth Rate = 4.2%

Source: Department of Economic Growth, Tourism and Culture, PEI Tourism Value Model

$486.2(f)

Tourism Visitation by Origin (2018)

10

83.1%

7.0%

2.0%1.7%

6.2%

Canada Total (1,312,949)

US Total (110,251)

Overseas (31,631)

Motor Coach (26,961)

Cruise Ship Passengers (97,570)


Tourism Visitation by Origin (2018), cont’d

11

28%

29%8%

13%

1%4%

2% 5%

2.0%1.7%

6.2%

NB (449,498)

NS (451,692)

QC (131,790)

ON (206,149)

Nfld (13,662)

Rest of Can (60,158)

New England (35,709)

Rest of US (74,542)


Target Markets (78% of total)

2019 PEI Tourism Traffic Indicators

12

YTD September 30, 2019

+3.3% Airport*

+ 1.6% Bridge*

-3.3% Ferry

-15.0% Motorcoach Overnight Stays

(YTD to Aug - Preliminary)

+23.8%Cruise Ships*

(Passengers and Crew)

Sources: Strait Crossing Ltd (Bridge); Charlottetown Airport Authority (Air); Northumberland Ferries Ltd (Ferry); Charlottetown Harbour Authority (Cruise); and Tourism PEI –ITS (Motorcoach).

2019 Overnight Stays

13

Preliminary YTD August 31, 2019

Combined814,066 ONS

+2.8%

Source: Tourism PEI , ITS (Occupancy Reporting System). August compliance at 94%.

2014 2019 2014 2019

Room-Nights Sold Trend Site-Nights Sold Trend

-2.1%11.7% 4.6% -1.7% 4.3%

516,498297,568

3.6%11.2%

9.5% -1.1% 0.3%

Target Markets Change in ONS (2019)

14

Preliminary YTD August 31, 2019


+7.5%+2.2%-4.4%

+0.3%

+8.7%

New England Mid-Atlantic

+8.7%

Growth in Number of Licensed Establishments

15

52% growth from 2012-2018Average annual growth rate 15%

Source: Tourism PEI

1,200

1,400

1,588

1,834

2005-2016 2017 2018 2019

2018 Atlantic Tourism Economy

17

Sources: (1) Statistics Canada 2016 Census; NLTCR, NSTA, NBTHC, PEIEDT

Tourism is of strategic importance to Atlantic Canada:

• With a population of just 2.3 million1, Atlantic Canada hosted in 2018 in excess of 62 million visitors (24% growth since 2012).

• These visitors spent an estimated $5.5 billion while vacationing in Atlantic Canada (22% growth since 2012).

• Tourism generates upwards of 62,900 (FTEs) jobs for Atlantic Canadians.

• Domestic markets account for more than 85% of non-resident, tourism-related visits.

• The Northeastern region of the USA & the UK are Atlantic Canada’s most lucrative international markets.

Trends in Non-Resident Visits & Revenues

18

5.1 5.2 5.25.0 5.1

5.45.2

5.0 5.0 5.15.4

5.86.2 6.3

$3.67 $3.74 $3.85 $4.02 $4.15$4.38

$4.70$4.50 $4.50

$4.69$4.89

$5.25$5.50

$5.72

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

Arrivals (Millions) Revenues ($Billions)

• 24% growth in non-resident visitation since 2005• 56% growth in revenues since 2005

Source: NLTCR, NSTA, NBTHC, PEIEDT

Atlantic Canada

Non-Resident Visits by Province

19

0.47 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.54 0.55 0.53

2.11 2.14 2.091.95

1.79 1.80

2.072.24

2.43 2.41

1.31 1.351.24

1.551.36 1.38 1.40

1.50 1.62 1.62

1.22 1.24 1.28 1.23 1.30 1.33 1.41 1.49 1.57 1.58

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

NL NS NB PE

1.62(f)

NS + 14%

NB + 24%

NL + 13%

PE + 30%


(in millions)

Room-Nights Sold by Province

20


Annual Growth or Decrease (%)

-2%

0.5%

2.1%

4.2%

-7.5%

3.7%4.4%

2%3%

3%

5%4.3%

-1.1%

4.2%

9.6%

2019YTD 2018 2017 2016

NS NFLD NB PEI

• Total RNS growth 2016-2018:• NS +2.6%• NFLD -4.1%• NB +6.4%• PEI +3.1%

Site-Nights Sold by Province

21


• Total RSNS growth 2016-2018:• NS +10.5%• NFLD -8.5%• NB +5.6%• PEI +9.9%

Annual Growth or Decrease (%)

-1%

2.2%

8.1%

14.0%

6%

-0.3%

5.9%

9.0%

-7.3%

-1.2% -1.6%

0.3%

-1.5%

11.6%10.7%

2019YTD 2018 2017 2016

NS NB NFLD PEI

Confederation Bridge

22

Source: Strait Crossing Ltd.

• 17.5% growth vs 2012

• Record traffic YTD

• 2.8% average annual growth rate

Traffic (2-axles and motorcycles). YTD September 30, 2019

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Charlottetown Airport

13

Source: Charlottetown Airport Authority

Non-Resident Air Traffic. YTD September 30, 2019

• 24.4% growth vs 2012

• Record traffic YTD


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Wood Island Ferry

24

Source: Northumberland Ferries Ltd

Traffic (Personal Recreational Vehicles). YTD September 30, 2019

• 11.9% growth vs 2012


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mechanical issues in 2014

2016 one ferry under repair

Cruise – Charlottetown Port

25

Source: Charlottetown Harbour Authority

Cruise Ship Passengers and Crew Traffic. YTD September 30, 2019

• 82.4% growth vs 2012


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Growth in Room / Camp Nights Sold

26

2012-2019 (YTD August 31, 2019)

Fixed Roof Room-Nights Sold:

• 18.3% growth since 2012


Campground Site-Nights Sold:

• 43.3% growth since 2012


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Fixed Roof Room-Nights Sold Campground Site-Nights Sold


Volume – Non-Resident Visits to PEI

27

1,221

1,225 1,240

1,192

1,2811,299

1,230 1,228

1,298

1,332

1,410

1,485

1,5681,578

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• Strong upward trend in non-residents visits• Average annual growth rate of 2.1%• 29% growth since 2005

Source: PEI Tourism Volume Model

Preliminary – in thousands of visits

PEI Tourism Revenues

28

342.3 346.4360.5 359.5

359.1

378.6

381.7 380.4 381.6

401.1405.6

432.9

459.9

486.2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

• Strong upward trend in tourism revenues• Average annual growth rate of 2.8% • 42% in revenues since 2005

Source: PEI Tourism Value Model

Preliminary – in millions CAD

New Brunswick Visits

30

344348 353

367 369 373363

351

370

400

417

402

449 449

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• Strong upward trend in visitation• 31% of total growth vs 2005 • Average annual growth rate 2.2%• Flat growth 2018 vs 2017

(in 000’s)

Source: PEI Tourism Volume ModelNote: These numbers exclude cruise ship travellers and motor coach tourists.

Fast Facts – New Brunswick

31

Market Overview

PEI’s second largest tourism market in 2018

Accounted for 28% of all non-resident visits to PEI in 2018

Average spending per person per visit was $319.92 in 2018

Strong adult couples (47%) & family (29%) market

Strong (95%) repeat visitor market

Average length of stay – 4.0 nights

Average travel party size – 3.44

Primary travel motivators include outdoor activities & festivals/events

Primary activities include sightseeing, visiting friends/relatives & beaches

Source: PEI Exit Surveys

Nova Scotia Visits

32

426435

443

416

440 443

419

362

380390

400

434

447 452

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• 15% decline between 2005 & 2012• 25% growth since 2012• 1% growth 2018 vs 2017


(in 000’s)

Fast Facts – Nova Scotia

33

Market Overview

PEI’s largest tourism market in 2018

Accounted for 29% of all non-resident visits to PEI in 2018



Strong (97%) repeat visitor market


Average travel party size – 3.01

Primary travel motivators include outdoor activities & festivals/events

Primary activities include sightseeing, visiting friends/relatives & beaches


Ontario Visits

34


144 146

155

132

148158

149

157 158

146

187

216

206 206

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• Strong upward trend in visitation• 43% growth vs 2005• Average annual growth rate of 3.3%• Flat growth, 2018 vs 2017

(in 000’s)

Fast Facts – Ontario

35


Market Overview

PEI’s 3rd largest tourism market in 2018

13% of all non-resident visits to PEI in 2018



Good (64%) repeat visitor market


Average travel party size is 2.91

Primary travel motivators include natural beauty and pastoral settings, beaches and coastlines

Primary activities include sightseeing, culinary, beaches, history/culture, shopping & national parks

Quebec Visits

36


122

118 118

105

128

133

119

113

115118

123

141

132 132

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• Upward trend in visitation • 8% growth vs 2005• Average annual growth rate 1%• Flat growth, 2018 vs 2017

(in 000’s)

Fast Facts – Quebec

37


Market Overview

PEI’s 4th largest tourism market in 2018

8% of all PEI visitation



Good (63%) repeat visitor market


Primary travel motivators include beaches and coastlines, natural beauty and pastoral settings

Primary activities include sightseeing, culinary, history/culture, beaches, shopping and national parks

PEI Visitation and Revenue Estimates

39

Source: PEI Tourism Value and Volume Model Estimates

20182019

Forecast% Change

Tourism Volume (Total Non-Resident Visits: Persons)

1,579,400 1,602,600 + 1.5%

Tourism Value (Total Revenue: $ million)

$486.2 (f) $505.7 + 4.0%

For more about PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TOURISM

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Chris K. JonesDirector, Strategic InitiativesTourism PEI

tourism pei october 24, 2019 · 2019ytd 2018 2017 2016 ns nb nfld pei. confederation bridge 22...

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