total united states occupancy and adr percent change ytd … · 2012. 7. 2. · 1 industry overview...
TRANSCRIPT
1
InduSTRy Overview
Anaheim Hotel & Lodging Association
June 27, 2012
Brittany Baldwin Director of Business Development - Destinations
2
Agenda : • Total U.S. Overview
• Anaheim Market
• Pipeline
• 2012 / 2013 Forecast
3
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”
4
Total U.S. Review
5
Supply / Demand Drive Results. Pricing Power is Back (?)
% Change
• Room Supply* 727 mm 0.3% • Room Demand* 430 mm 3.5% • Occupancy 59% 3.2% • ADR $104 4.2% • RevPAR $62 7.5% • Room Revenue* $45 bn 7.9%
YTD May 2012, Total U.S. Results * All Time High
6
On An Annualized Basis: Most Rooms Sold - EVER
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Billi
ons
Total U.S. Number of Rooms Sold, 12 MMA, 1/89 – 12/11
7
YTD May 2012: Highest Demand - EVER
(430 Million Rooms Sold)
8
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply Demand
Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue
-6.9%
-0.9%
- 4.7%
Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 5/2012
8.0%
4.0%
9
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Demand ADR
ADR Changes More Erratic in Each Downturn
-6.9%
-4.7%
-0.9%
-4.6%
-0.2%
-8.7%
4.0%
Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 5/2012
10
ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases
95
100
105
110
2008 2009 2010 2011
Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA 2007 - 2011
Apr ‘10 $97
Sept ‘08 $108
Dec ‘11 $102
+4.6%
-10%
19 Months
19 Months
11
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F
Nominal ADR
2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
Total US, ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
$85
$101
$104
$85
$107 $109
$107
$117
2013F
Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach
2007 ADR Grown By CPI
12
U.S. Chain Scales
13
• Luxury – Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott
• Upper Upscale – Sheraton, Embassy Suites, Hyatt, Marriott
• Upscale – Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier
• Upper Midscale – Fairfield Inn/Suites, Holiday Inn, Clarion, Hampton Inn/Suites, Best Western PLUS, Country Inn & Suites
• Midscale –, Best Western, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn/Suites
• Economy – Extended Stay America, Red Roof, Days Inn, Microtel
2012 STR Chain Scales
14
Scales: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue
-0.9
0.2
1.5 1.8
0.6
-0.2
2.8 3.1
4.3
5.8
3.9
1.7
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply Demand
Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, YTD May‘12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
15
Q1: Strong Beginning to 2012
3.7
2.9 2.8
3.9
3.3
2.0
4.9
4.0 4.3
3.8
3.2
4.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occupancy ADR
OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, Q1 ‘12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
16
Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night
72.5
70.5 69.6
65.6
59.0 57.0
72.1 70.1 70.3
62.2
54.3 53.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy
2007 12 Months end 5/12
Absolute OCC %, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
17
ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet)
$293
$159
$121
$94 $75
$54
$266
$150
$114 $95
$73 $51
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy
2007 12 Months end 5/12
Absolute ADR $, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
18
U.S. Segmentation
19
Transient Demand Breaks Records, But....
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012
Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
Mill
ions
20
… Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012
Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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5.3
4.6
6.4
5.4 5.9
5.1 5.0
3.7
4.7 4.3
4.6
3.7 3.8 3.4
4.0
5.5
4.2
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
*Transient ADR % by Month, 1/11 – 5/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue
22
Group Demand Has Not Changed Over Time, But…
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ions
2007 2011 2012
Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
23
… Group ADRs Still Depressed (& Could Dampen Future Absolute ADRs)
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2011 2012
Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
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2.6 2.4 2.4
0.3
3.7
2.0 2.0 1.7
3.0 2.7
3.7
-0.5
2.8 2.6
2.2
4.2
2.3
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Group ADR % by Month, 1/11 – 4/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)
Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed
25
Market Review
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Top 25 26 - 50 51 - 75 76 - 94
Top 94 Metro Markets By Size
Orlando, FL Chicago, IL Washington, DC-MD-VA New York, NY Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Houston, TX Phoenix, AZ San Diego, CA Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Boston, MA Miami-Hialeah, FL Tampa-St Petersburg, FL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Detroit, MI Seattle, WA Denver, CO St Louis, MO-IL Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI New Orleans, LA Nashville, TN Oahu Island, HI
San Antonio, TX Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Baltimore, MD Kansas City, MO-KS Charlotte, NC-SC Indianapolis, IN Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Knoxville, TN Fort Lauderdale, FL Austin, TX San Jose-Santa Cruz, CA Myrtle Beach, SC Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Jacksonville, FL Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Portland, OR Columbus, OH Sacramento, CA Oakland, CA Pittsburgh, PA Oklahoma City, OK Memphis, TN-AR-MS Richmond-Petersburg, VA Cleveland, OH Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT
Louisville, KY-IN Greensboro-Winston Salem, NC Newark, NJ Charleston, SC Albuquerque, NM Birmingham, AL Tucson, AZ Milwaukee, WI West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Savannah, GA Tulsa, OK Maui Island, HI Long Island Daytona Beach, FL Harrisburg, PA Hawaii-Kauai Islands Omaha, NE Hartford, CT Buffalo, NY Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA Mobile, AL Little Rock, AR Fort Myers, FL Albany/Schenectady, NY
Columbia, SC Dayton-Springfield, OH Grand Rapids, MI Lexington, KY Des Moines, IA Colorado Springs, CO Jackson, MS Rochester, NY Macon/Warner Robbins, GA Bergen-Passaic, NJ Chattanooga, TN-GA Allentown-Reading, PA Florida Keys Augusta, GA-SC Madison, WI Melbourne-Titusville, FL Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Syracuse, NY
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-10
-5
0
5
10
2002 2007 2012
Top 25 26-50 51-75 76-94
Demand Performance Distinctly Different This Time
Metro markets by size, in 25 market increments, Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 5/2012
28
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2002 2007 2012
Top 25 26-50 51-75 76-94
ADR Swings in Top 25 Markets Most Erratic
Metro markets by size, in 25 market increments, ADR % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 5/2012
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California Areas
30
1.4
2.3
-0.3
1.0
2.3
0.1 0.4
-0.3
0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5
-0.3
0.1
-0.5
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
Supply % Chng vs. LY May YTD 2010 – 2012
Supply Growth Muted Everywhere
31
7.1
5.0
7.4 6.2
7.2
5.8 6.0 6.8
3.7
7.5
2.4 3.5
1.8
4.5 4.1
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
Demand Growth on Par With Total U.S.
Demand % Chng vs. LY May YTD 2010 – 2012
32
5.7
2.6
7.7
5.1 4.9 5.7 5.6
7.1
3.2
7.2
2.1 3.0
2.1
4.4 4.7
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
L.A. & San Diego Largest OCC Growth YTD
OCC % Chng vs. LY ; May YTD 2010 -2012
33
-5.1 -4.8
-2.5
-7.5
-1.7
4.7
2.7
12.8
4.2 6.1
4.3 3.1
10.1
3.9 4.3
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
San Fran/Mateo Largest ADR Growth for YTD Again
ADR % Chng vs. LY ; May YTD 2010 -2012
34
0.3
-2.3
5.0
-2.8
3.0
10.7
8.5
20.9
7.6
13.8
6.5 6.3
12.4
8.5 9.2
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
RevPAR Growth Mixed of ADR & OCC …
RevPAR % Chng vs. LY; May YTD 2010 – 2012
35
Anaheim/Santa Ana Market
36
Anaheim/ Santa Ana Market:
Hotels 427 Rooms 53,761 STR Sample 80% Occupancy 69.6% 2.1% ADR $115.11 4.3% RevPAR $80.15 6.5% Room Revenue $650m 6.8%
YTD May 2012
37
-11
-8
-5
-2
1
4
7
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Anaheim Demand Far Exceeding Supply
Anaheim/Santa Ana Market: Supply & Demand % Change; 12MMA 2007 - May 2012
38
-16
-13
-10
-7
-4
-1
2
5
8
11
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
-10.6%
ADR Taking the Lead Back; Lagging Since 2009
Anaheim Market: OCC & ADR & Demand % Change; 12MMA 2007- May 2012
39
Anaheim/Santa Ana By Class
40
Definition of Class: …….an industry categorization which includes both chain-
affiliated and independent hotels. An independent hotel is assigned a class based on its
annual ADR, relative to that of the chain hotels in their geographic proximity.
41
-0.1 -0.0
2.2
4.0
0.0
-0.4
6.3
3.2
6.2 6.0
1.5
-2.5
Luxury Upper Up Upscale Upper Mid Midscale Economy
Supply Demand
Upper End Leading in Demand Growth
Anaheim/Santa Ana: Class Segments Supply & Demand % Change, YTD May 2012
42
6.4
3.3 4.0 4.0
1.5
-2.1
7.4
0.6
4.3
1.9
3.4
5.2
Luxury Upper Up Upscale Upper Mid Midscale Economy
OCC ADR
Anaheim/Santa Ana: Class Segments OCC & ADR % Change, YTD May 2011
Economy Class – Large Rate Growth
43
Anaheim/Santa Ana
Segmentation & Weekday vs. Weekend
44
Transient Demand Back...ADR Catching Up!
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trans. Demand % Chg Trans. ADR % Chg
Anaheim Market: Transient Room Demand & ADR % Change By Month Jan. 2007 – May 2012
45
Group ADR ????
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Group Demand % Chg Group ADR % Chg
Anaheim Market: Group Room Demand & ADR % Change By Month Jan. 2007 – May 2012
46
Weekday = Sunday – Thursday
Weekend = Friday & Saturday
47
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2010 2011 2012
Weekday Occupancy: WAS Off To A Strong Start ….
Anaheim Market Weekday Occupancy by Month, Jan’07 – May’12
48
Weekday ADR: May YOY Increase of $2.54 …..
Anaheim Mkt Weekday ADR by Month, Jan’07 – May’12
$95
$105
$115
$125
$135
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2010 2011 2012
$121.56
$114.17
$111.63
$105.38
49
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2009 2010 2011
Weekend Occupancy: Demand is Back
Anaheim Mkt Weekend Occupancy by Month, Jan’07 – May’12
50
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2010 2011 2012
$123.16
$114.01
$110.17
$104.31
Weekend ADR: May YOY Increase of $3.84 …..
Anaheim Mkt Weekend ADR by Month, Jan’07 – May’12
51
Pipeline
52
Pipeline Definitions:
In Construction: Ground broken or bids on general contractor being made
Final Planning: project out for bids, or construction to start
within 4 months Planning: An architect/engineer selected & plans are underway. (Initial approvals have usually been granted) Pre-Planning: No architect has been selected
53
Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012
Phase May 2012 May 2011 Dec 2007
In Construction 60 50 211 “Planned Pipeline” 230 261 204
Active Pipeline 290 311 415
*Total US Pipeline, in ‘000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge
54
Upscale / Upper Midscale Sees Activity
1.6
7.7
17.4 19.5
3.0 1.0
12.0
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
Rooms In Construction by Scale (‘000s), 5/12 Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge
55
Anaheim/Santa Ana Active Development Pipeline
Phase Projects
Rooms
In Construction 2 186
Final Planning 6 901
Planning 5 853
Active Pipeline 13 1940
Pre-Planning 4 1620
Total 17 3560
As of May 2012
56
Anaheim New Room Supply = Independent Hotels
275
562
335
1,141
UpperUpscale
Upscale
UpperMidscale
Independent
Anaheim/Santa Ana Market – May 2012 Active Pipeline: planning/final planning/in-construction by chain scale *Chain scales not shown do not have projects in the active pipeline at this time.
57
2012 / 2013 Forecast
58
Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012
Forecast 2013
Forecast
Supply 0.5% 1.1%
Demand 2.0% 1.8%
Occupancy 1.5% 0.7%
ADR 4.0% 4.6%
RevPAR 5.5% 5.4%
59
2012 Scale Forecast
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury +2.6% +5.1% +7.9%
Upper Upscale +1.5% +4.2% +5.7%
Upscale +2.3% +4.6% +7.1%
Upper Midscale +1.4% +4.0% +5.5%
Midscale +2.8% +1.4% +4.3%
Economy +1.4% +3.1% +4.5%
Independent +0.5% +3.5% +4.0%
Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5%
Key Performance Indicator Forecast, by Scale, 2012
60
2012 Year End RevPAR Forecast (as of 3rd QTR 2011 forecast)
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
Nashville St Louis
Los Angeles-Long Beach Miami-Hialeah
Philadelphia Detroit
Anaheim-Santa Ana Boston
Orlando Minneapolis-St Paul
Washington DC New Orleans
Atlanta San Diego
Norfolk-Virginia Beach Oahu Island
Tampa-St Petersburg
Seattle
Phoenix
Houston
Dallas
San Francisco-San Mateo
Chicago
New York
Denver
61
Takeaways
Supply Muted Demand Back Pricing Power Slow to Improve Need Rate to Start Driving RevPAR Overall Positive Environment
62