tory policy convention poll october 2010

8/8/2019 Tory Policy Convention Poll October 2010

1/31

PC Alberta Strategic Update

Survey

STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIALJune, 2010

Prepared for:

Innovative Research Group, Inc.

www.innovativeresearch.ca

Toronto :: Vancouver


2/31

Methodology


3/31

Methodology

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding

numbers.

3

A proportional telephone survey of 601 adults in Alberta, 18 years and older

conducted from June 17 to June 26, 2010 AND a proportional telephone survey of 601adults in Alberta, 18 years and older conducted from October 21st to 26th, 2010.

Sample was broken down into three regions as follows (June/Oct):

- Calgary n= 187; n=180

- Edmonton n= 151; n=175

- North/South/rural n= 263; n=246

Margin of error for total sample approximately +4.00, 19 times out of 20.

Margin of error for regional results is approximately 6.93%, 19 times out of 20.

The data has been weighted by region, age and gender according to the 2001 / 2006Canadian Census data.


4/31

Albertans Values


5/31

Majority believe that the government should

create equal opportunity for people to competeIt is more important for government

Note: Blank and Refused (3%) not shown

Q

5

60%

28%

10%

To create equal opportunity so that

everyone can compete on their own to be

the best they can be.

To redistribute wealth so that the poor

and disadvantaged have more than they

would if left on their own.

Don't know


6/31

Majority believe that the profit system teaches

people the value of hard work and successDo you think the profit system


Q

6

26%

56%

15%

Bri

gs o t t

e worst i

ma

at re?

eac

es eo le t

e val e of

ar wor

a

s ccess?

Do

't

ow


7/31

Three-in-four believe that Alberta has a pressing

social deficitDo you agree or disagree with the following statements?Q

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

7

We ha

e a pressin

so

ial defi

it in

Alberta that is measured b

problems su

h as homelessness

waitin

lists for health

are and

la

k of a

ess to post se

ondar

edu

ation.

It's hard for people li ke me to

et

ahead in Alberta.

Prote

tin

the en

ironment is

more important than

reatin

jobs.

Stron

l

a

ree Somewhat a

ree Neither a

ree nor disa

ree Somewhat disa

ree Stron

l

disa

ree


8/31

Majority believe the govt should decide spending

based on the publics need, not affordabilityWhich of the following statements is closest to your view? When governments make ma or decisions

concerning spending on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on

Q

8

26%

6 %

10%

Their ability to afford the programs and

services

The public's need for the programs and

services

Don't know


9/31

By a 2:1 margin, Albertans believe in funding

social programs over eliminating the deficitWhich statement is closest to your view?

The provincial government should increase finding for social programs such as health and education even if it

means running a deficit

-or-

The provincial government should eliminate the deficit, even if it means reducing funding for social programs

such as health and education

Q

9


10/31

Three-in-four believe that people should be left

alone to decide what is right on moral issuesWhen it comes to moral issues like same sex marriage and abortion, do you think


Q

10

17%

75%

6%

Gover me t s o l legis late clear

comm ity moral sta ar s?

Peo le s o l

e left alo e to eci e

w at is rig t for t emselves?

Do 't

ow


11/31

PC Party Brand


12/31

PC Party scores highest in questions relating to

leadership, competence and responsibilityThinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the

NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the following words or phrases.Q

12

37%

33%

33%

32%

12%

11%

10%

13%

5%

6%

7%

5%

16%

10%

13%

17%

12%

18%

14%

18%

18%

17%

14%

12%

1%

1%

1%

Pr

par

d t!

run th

" !

v

rnm

nt

#

!

mp

t

nt

Str!

n"

t

am

F $ nanc $ a % %&

r

sp!

ns $ b %

Th

PC Part&

Th

' $ b

ra % Part&

Th

N ( P Th

)

$ % dr!

s

0

% % $ anc

1

th

r Non

/)

ou % d not vot

Und

c $ d

d/DK


13/31

Extreme used by a plurality to describe the

NDP, WildroseThinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the


13

9% % % 9%% % %2 3 t 4 5 6 5

T 75

8 C 8 a 4 t9

T 75

@ i A5

4 al 8 a 4 t9

T 75

NDP T 75

B

ilC

4 os5

Allia DE 5

Ot 75

4 No D5

/B

o F lC

D otG

ot5

H D

C

5 E

iC

5

C

/DK


14/31

Stands for values I believe in used by plurality

to describe the PC partyThinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the


14

27 14 10 1021 4 12Stands for va I uP

s I bP

I Q

P

vP

Q n

ThP

PC PartR

ThP

S Q bP

ra I PartR

ThP

NDP ThP

T

Q I drosP

U

I I Q ancP

V

thP

r NonP

/T

ou I d not votP

UndP

c Q dP

d/DK


15/31

Leader Brand


16/31

Stelmach scores highest on record, competence

and leadershipThinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David

Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose

Alliance which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Q

16

28%

23%

21%

%

9%

%

%

9%

8% 20% 14%

%

18%

21%

9%

ProW

X

Y record o

acco a b lis c a ent

Co a b etent

Strong leader

EdStel a ach o

thePC Partd

Dr.DaW

idSwan o

the e i f eral Partd

Brian Mason o

the NDP

DanielleS a ith o

theg

ildroseAlliance None



17/31

Stelmach scores highest on being a regular

person, caring about voters and their problemsThinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David



Q

17

30%

20%

21%

8%

9%

9%

12%

10%

11% 14% 16%

15%

16%

7%

17%

Is a regu h ar person

Cares about peop h e h i p e q e

Cares about the probh

ems ofmy commun i ty

Ed Stelmach of thePC Party Dr.Dav i d Sr

an of the s i beralPartyBr i an Mason of theNDP Dan i elleSmith of the

t

ildroseu

lli anceNone

Note: Dont v no w /Refused not sho w n


18/31

Ed Stelmach is reliable

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David



Q

18

25% 7% 9% 13% 15%Reli able

Ed Stelmachx

f the y C y arty Dr.David S

anx

f the iberal y arty Brian Masx

nx

f theND y

DanielleSmithx

f the

ildrx

se

ll iance Nx

ne

Note: D nt kn /Refused n t sh n


19/31

Ed Stelmach balances the interests of all regions

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David



Q

19



20/31

Stelmach compares positively to other leaders

Thinking again of the main party leaders ... which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following

words or phrases?


Q

20


21/31

Stelmach has increased favourable impressions,

while Smith, Swann, Mason stayed the sameNow, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently.

For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or

unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, ust say so. Would that be strongly

favourable/unfavourable impression or ust a somewhat favourable/unfavourable impression?

Q


21


22/31

Ed Stelmach top choice for Premier

And which of the following leaders would make the best Premier ofAlberta?Q

22

Note: Refused (1%) not shown


23/31

The Snapshot Question


24/31

PCs have a plurality, and have widened their lead

over Wildrose Alliance.Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local

riding? Would it be?

Q

24

Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%) not shown

Liberal candidate PC candidate NDP candidate The Wildrose

Alliance

candidate

Other Undecided/DK


25/31

Almost a third of those decided and leaning

would vote PCNow, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local

riding? Would it be? [Vote + lean]

Q

25

Liberal candidate PC candidate NDP

candidate

The Wildrose

Alliance

candidate

Other

Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%) not shown


26/31

PCs lead with 40% of decided vote, opening a gap

on The Wildrose AllianceNow, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local

riding? Would it be? [Decided Vote]

Q

26

Liberal candidate PC candidateNDP

candidate

The Wildrose

Alliance

candidate

Other


27/31

PCs lead in Edmonton and rural; statistical tie in

CalgaryNow, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote for in your local

riding? Would it be? [Decided vote]

Q

27

Calgary

Rural

Edmonton

PC

NDP

LiberalWildrose Alliance


28/31

PC voters vs. Wildrose voters (June & Oct. 2010):

Really not all that different

28

25% 25%

PC Wildrose

Attendchurch at least once a week Believe govt should bedoing more orat least the same to protect free,

high quality healthcare.

2%67%

PC Wildrose

Agree that theprofit system teaches people the valueof

hard work andsuccess

63% 63%

PC Wildrose

Believe govt should bedoing more orat least the same toreduce GHGs.

%

68%

PC Wildrose


29/31

Key Findings Summary

PC brand strengths are leadership, competence, team,responsibility.

Premier Stelmachs brand strengths are accomplishment,

competence and leadership.

Also cares about voters, balances regional interests and isreliable.

Wildrose supporters similar to PC voters in attitudes,

demographics, and position on issues.

29


30/31

Key Findings Summary

The PC party has improved its position since June

Decided vote lead doubles from 7 to 14 points

Gains in Edmonton and Calgary stable in rural

Underlying party numbers also show improvements

The Premierhas improved his standing since June

Best Premier - leading by 8

Favourables up 6 and unfavourables down 9

Underlying numbers all show similar gains


31/31

Contact Information

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3rd Floor

Vancouver BC | V6E 2E9

Toronto Office

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3rd Floor

Toronto ON | M5H 2S6

Innovative Research Group, Inc. | www.innovativeresearch.ca

31

Managing Director

Direct: 416-642-6429

Email: [email protected]

Greg Lyle

tory policy convention poll october 2010

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