toronto office market report q3 2014

Accelerating success.

GTAOffice MarketReportTHIRD QUARTER 2014

THIRD QUARTER 2014

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND

Office Inventory 184,344,128 184,381,007

Net Absorption (66,258) (321,035)

Vacancy Rate 6.1% 6.3%

Availability Rate 10.2% 10.3%

Average Asking Net Rent $18.63 $18.11

Average Additional Rent $16.94 $15.66

Average Asking Gross Rent $35.56 $33.77

*There are 2,044 office buildings surveyed in the GTA ** Average Rents are calculated using a weighted average.

focused on transit-oriented assets. Development of new office product is filling the current void for opportunity-starved investors, but quality sites and large-lead tenants remain scarce.

CURRENT TENANT DEMAND

The financial services sector is leading the pack with regards to demand for office space this quarter. Banks, investment companies and credit rating service providers are the leading tenants looking for large pockets of space, mainly in the Downtown market. The strength in the GTA housing market, and the upward momentum in prices, has provided a boost to consumer-oriented industries as well as the financial services sector. The second largest industry demanding space is the tech sector. The tech industry is continuing to gain momentum within the Toronto market as international companies are beginning to view Canada as a viable expansion opportunity.

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1,000,000

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Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate

MARKET OVERVIEW

Toronto’s central markets are continuing to exhibit strong tenant demand, specifically, the Downtown market where vacancy is still on the decline, we are reporting 3.5% this quarter. Deal activity is up and deals are being done in large pockets of upcoming vacant space as well as in upcoming new builds. In the Suburban markets, we are seeing a very different trend with vacancy is rising in every major market since the last quarter. The high vacancy rates in some suburban areas connect to the pattern of employers seeking central locations where their talent pool is choosing to walk or commute to work. In addition, traffic congestion and long commute times in parts of the GTA, have been another significant driver to workforces taking up residence in centrally-located hubs in and around the city. Companies are beginning to address the link between heathy bottom lines and ease of accessibility for their employees.

INVESTMENT MARKET

The trend of limited available large-scale office product continues throughout the Toronto market. Only a handful of larger deals have made it to market this year, with 180 Wellington Street West being the notable deal for Q3. A stable REIT market has caused constraints on the supply of purchasing opportunities which has buoyed aggressive pricing within the GTA. Assets located in the Downtown core are seeing aggressive lifts in terms of valuations, while potential vendors of non-core assets continue to look for similar figures to Q2. This has only added to lack of deals being completed and additional pushback from buyers for non-core / suburban product. Investors are not willing to apply value to vacant assets in the suburban markets and continue to stay

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500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

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Financial Services

Technology/Software/Internet

Media/Marketing/Advertising

Architectural/Engineering

Wholesale Trade

Legal Services

Institutional

Retail Trade

Asset Management/Pension

Other*

27%

19%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

4%

3%

9%

Financial Services

Technology/Software/Internet

Media/Marketing/Advertising

Architectural/Engineering

Wholesale Trade

Legal Services

Institutional

Retail Trade

Asset Management/Pension

Other* (Security Services, AutomotiveManufacturing/Printing,Communications/IT, Construction/ Mining, Insurance, Hospitality,Travel Services, Consulting)

*

SEPTEMBER 2014 3,129,000 SF

Other includes Security Services, Automotive Manufacturing/Printing, Communications/IT, Construction/Mining, Insurance, Hospitality, Travel Services, Consulting

OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY

GTA MARKET OVERVIEW

MARKET SUMMARIES

Downtown 1

Midtown 2

Central North 3

Central East 4

GTA East 5

GTA North 6

GTA West 7

GLOSSARY 8

FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 8

TABLE OF

CONTENTS

1

NOTABLE NEW SUPPLYPCOMING NEW SUPPLY ADDRESS STATUS COMPLETION DATE CLASS FLOORS OFFICE AREA (SF) DEVELOPER10. 88 Queens Quay Under Construction Q4 2014 AAA 30 933,020 Oxford Properties Group

11. 120 Bremner Boulevard Under Construction Q4 2014 A 30 732,480 GWL Realty Advisors Inc.

12. 134 Peter Street Under Construction Q2 2015 A 17 299,178 Allied Properties REIT

13. 22 Adelaide Street West Under Construction Q1 2016 AAA 44 1,020,000 Brookfield Financial Real Estate Group

14. 351 King Street East Under Construction Q2 2016 A 17 500,000 First Gulf Corporation

15. 1 York Street Under Construction Q3 2016 A 35 800,000 HOOPP / Menkes

16. 100 Adelaide Street W Under Construction Q2 2017 AAA 40 905,722 Oxford Properties Group

TRENDS

Notable Lease Notable Sale New Supply

TORONTO

Union

Dundas

Bloor / YongeBayDufferinCastlefrank

Wellesley

Queen’s ParkCollege St

Dundas St

Queen St

King St

Spad

ina

Ave

Univ

ersi

ty A

ve

Yong

e St

Parli

amen

t St

4

Duffe

rin S

t

Bloor St

13

Gardiner Expwy

111

52

367

8 912 14

15

16

Lake Ontario

10


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-200,000

0

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600,000

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1,000,000

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Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate %

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The Downtown market is continuing to see a decline in vacancy this quarter. Leasing activity has been strong and leases are being done in large blocks of space in existing office inventory in addition to properties that are still under construction. The Financial Core continues to command high rental rates and Class A and AAA Tenants. However, although new supply is delivered to the Downtown South market in the coming months, vacancy is expected to rise in Financial Core as big block tenants, such as Marsh Mercer, take space southward. With roughly 5.19 million square feet of office development currently under construction in the Downtown market, we will see landlords of older assets begin to upgrade their properties, seek sustainability through LEED or BOMA certifications and compete for deals on price.

» RBC WaterPark Place and Bremner Tower are set to be completed in Q4 2014 and will deliver more than 1.6 million square feet of office inventory to the Downtown South market. Both new towers are approximately 80 percent preleased.

» New builds are experiencing interest from tenants who are located in B class assets in addition to tenants from suburban markets.

» There has been growth in small to mid-sized tenants who are increasing their space requirements.

» Downtown West fringe office assets are experiencing significant increases in taxes and operating costs beyond inflation. This rise in additional cost could have a substantial impact on net rents for properties in this market.


DOWNTOWN

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND

Office Inventory* (SF) 70,514,344 70,479,113

Net Absorption (SF) 134,792 107,423



Average Asking Net Rent** $26.18 $26.83


Average Asking Gross Rent** $49.99 $51.45 *There are 488 office buildings surveyed in the GTA ** Average Rents are calculated using a weighted average.

NOTABLE LEASE TRANSACTIONS

TENANT TYPE ADDRESS APPROX. SIZE (SF)

1. National Bank Headlease 130 King St West 130,000

2. Amazon Headlease 120 Bremner Blvd 108,000

3. Scotiabank Headlease 1 Adelaide St East 56,980

4. Valencia Ventures Headlease 65 Queen St West 21,940

5. BDO Canada LLP Headlease 123 Front St West 17,347

NOTABLE SALE TRANSACTIONS

PURCHASER PRICE ADDRESS APPROX. SIZE (SF)

6. Allied Properties REIT $100,000,000 555 Richmond St West 297,294

7. 25 Liberty Management $16,351,000 25-35 Liberty St & 51-65 Jefferson Ave 70,000

8. Bel-Three Property Management $16,000,000 53 Ontario St

& 102 Berkeley St 48,744

9. Youth & Phil. Initiative $9,500,000 573 King St East 18,150

2


MIDTOWN

Bloor St

Dundas St

Queen St

Eglinton Ave

Lans

dow

ne A

ve

Yong

e St

Bayv

iew

Ave

Duffe

rin S

t

Lawrence Ave

Gardiner Expwy

31

2TORONTO


TENANT PRICE ADDRESS APPROX. SIZE (SF)

1. Ponte Gadea Group $254,500,000 150 Bloor St West 274,329.00

2. Oxford/CT REIT $93,620,439 "Canada Square" 843,675.00

3. First Capital Realty $8,000,000 30/30A Hazelton Avenue 12,780.00


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TRENDS

Notable Sale

The Midtown market is seeing an increase in availability since last quarter, which has been impacted by the Manulife space at 250 Bloor Street East coming onto the market. There are currently two large space opportunities of more than 30,000 square feet in the Yonge and Bloor submarket. Although there is healthy leasing activity in small- to mid-sized space opportunities, big block leasing velocity is down in the Midtown market. Large tenants are choosing to take space southward, such as LinkedIn vacating its space at Yonge and Eglinton this quarter to relocate to a new office Downtown.

» There are currently 26 active condominium development projects underway in the Yonge-Bloor submarket. Eight of these developments are currently under construction.

» Yonge-Eglinton has seen a slowdown in transaction volume this quarter. Tenants looking to relocate to Yonge-Eglinton have been deterred by the construction of the Crosstown light rail which has caused traffic congestion in the area.

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND

Office Inventory* (SF) 17,447,313 17,435,725

Net Absorption (SF) (22,900) 38,411



Average Asking Net Rent** $18.43 $18.78


Average Asking Gross Rent** $37.54 $38.21

*There are 208 office buildings surveyed in the GTA ** Average Rents are calculated using a weighted average.

3


CENTRAL NORTH



1. Hagger Canada Co. Headlease 777 Supertest Road 23,178

2. Bluecat Networks Inc. Headlease 4101 Yonge Street 20,380

NOTABLE NEW SUPPLY

ADDRESS STATUS CLASS FLOORS TOTAL OFFICE AREA (SF) DEVELOPER

3. 2 Anndale Drive Under Construction A 10 210,000 Hullmark/Tridel

4. 4050 Yonge Street Planned 7 367,000 Build Toronto Inc.

5. 4800 Yonge Street Planned A 25 393,000 Oxford Properties Group

Sheppard Ave

Highway 401

Lawrence Ave

Finch Ave

Hig

hway

400

Yong

e St

Bayv

iew

Ave

Keel

e St

Steeles Ave

Eglinton Ave

Jane

St

Bath

urst

St

Old Cummer

Oriole

York University

5

Weston

4

1

23

TORONTO

VAUGHAN

Lawrence

Sheppard

Finch

Downsview

Lawrence West

Eglinton West Eglinton


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Although vacancy rates continue to remain low in the Central North market, this market has seen a dramatic slowdown in transaction volume especially in the North Yonge Corridor. Availability in the sublet market remains high with 32.2 percent of available space being sublet. Landlords competing in the sublease market are being directly affected by the slowdown in the market. For tenants looking to relocate to the Central North market, this is an ideal time to secure an aggressively priced deal on a sublease space.

» The types of deals taking place this quarter have most commonly been short-term renewals as tenants are choosing to wait for the market to change and bring new space and price opportunities.

TRENDS

Notable Lease New Supply

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND


Net Absorption 7,608 10,543







4


CENTRAL EASTHighway 407

Eglinton Ave

Finch Ave

Hig

hway

404

Yong

e St

Vict

oria

Par

k Av

e

Kenn

edy

Ave

3

Sheppard Ave

Steeles Ave

Highway 401

Mar

kham

Rd

6

Keel

e St

12

4

5 SCARBOROUGH

TORONTO

Finch

Kennedy

Union

Lake Ontario



1. Lenovo Headlease 55 Idema Road 36,000

2. Hidi Rae Consulting Engineers Inc. Headlease 156 Gordon Baker Road 24,069

NOTABLE NEW SUPPLY


4. 1 Steelcase Road West Planned 18 400,500 Liberty Development Corporation

5. 101 Gordon Baker Road Planned A 12 250,000 Osmington Inc.

6. 3377 Steeles Avenue East Planned A 6 280,000 Bentall Real Estate Services



3. 7300 Warden Business Park Inc. $23,500,000 7300 Warden Avenue 141,296


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Leasing activity within the Central East market remains steady, with reported vacancies shifting downward since Q2 2014. Notably, Woodbine-Steeles and Consumers Road submarkets have seen heightened leasing activity and positive absorption this quarter. Deals are taking place in small to mid-sized space opportunities.

» The Toronto East market remains tight and has seen minimal leasing activity with no reported absorption since Q2 2014. However, with a reduction in the amount of available B and C class space this quarter, we expect to see vacancies get filled in the coming months.

TRENDS


2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND


Net Absorption (20,447) 49,893







5


GTA EAST

Taunton Rd

Kingston Rd

Highway 407

Broc

k Rd

Harm

ony Rd

Sheppard Ave

Steeles Ave

Highway 401

ScarboroughTown Centre

Stouffville

Pickering Oshawa

Markham

12

TORONTO

OSHAWA

PICKERING

Lake Ontario



1. Public Works and Government Services Canada Headlease 55 Town Centre

Court 17,360

NOTABLE NEW SUPPLY


2. 65 Bayly Street West Under Construction 2 31,500 Medallion Corporation


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There has been a slowing in leasing activity in the GTA East market. The Pickering and Oshawa submarket reported an 8.6 percent vacancy in Q2 2014. Since then, we have seen a significant jump in vacancy up to 11.4 percent this quarter. The two properties: 1600 Champlain Avenue and 2 Simcoe Street South directly affected the increase in vacancy within the Pickering and Oshawa submarket as both properties had large vacancies this quarter.

» NERs remain stagnant within this market due to a slowing of leasing activity.

TRENDS

Notable Lease New Supply

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND


Net Absorption 33,517 (41,201)







6


GTA NORTHAvailability within the GTA North market has risen since last quarter – B class space in particular has jumped from 10.2 percent in Q2 2014 to 17.7 percent this quarter. With a rise in the amount of available space in the GTA North market, leasing activity has increased, particularly within the Highway 404 and Highway 407 submarket. This submarket has experienced an increase in transaction volume with properties leasing up large amounts of space. Notably, 125 Commerce Valley Drive has done 80,000 square feet in deals within the last three months.

» Technology companies remain major occupiers within the GTA North market.

» While there is a trend for large multinational companies like Coca Cola and Apple taking space in Downtown market, there is still value and demand for office space located near highways in suburban markets. Seasoned employees and senior executives with established lifestyles in the suburbs are opting to drive home from work rather than commute.

TRENDS


2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND


Net Absorption (45,745) (88,532)







Newmarket

Stouffville

RichmondHill

King City

Highway 407

Wellington St

Yong

e St

Stouffville Rd

War

den

Ave

Steeles Ave

King Rd

McC

owan

Rd

Hig

hway

27

Davis Dr

1 234 5

6

10

8

79 11

12VAUGHAN

RICHMOND HILL

MARKHAM

AURORA



1. Morrison Hershfield Headlease 125 Commerce Valley Drive West 50,484

2. Leisureworld Senior Care Corporation Headlease 302 Town Centre

Boulevard 27,950

3. Lexmark Headlease 125 Commerce Valley Drive West 24,000

4. OnX Inc. Headlease 165 Commerce Valley Drive 16,000

NOTABLE NEW SUPPLY

ADDRESS STATUS CLASS FLOORS TOTAL OFFICE AREA (SF) DEVELOPER7. 9131 Keele Street Completed B 1 45,104 Melrose Investments Incorporated

8. KPMG Tower - VMC Under Construction A 15 300,000 Calloway REIT/Smart Centres

9. 3100 Rutherford Road Under Construction 4 64,769 Lorwood Holdings Inc. - Elmgate Holdings

10. 180 Bass Pro Mills Drive Under Construction 3 39,000 The Typhon Group Ltd.

11. 2833 16th Avenue Planned A 60 9,000,000 Cadillac Fairview

12. 2320 Steeles Avenue West Planned A 8 232,000 The Milestone Group



5. McCormick Holdings Canada Inc. $10,600,000 80 Micro Court 84,364

6. Mohawk Medical (Mohawk Vaughan Inc.) $24,250,000 8333 Weston Road 60,000


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7


GTA WEST

Kipling

Georgetown

Milton

Burlington

Lake OntarioQEW

Highway

407

Highway

403

Highw

ay 427

Highway 10

Highway 401

Highway 6

13

45

6

7 138 11 91210 2

MISSISSAUGA

TORONTO

BRAMPTON

OAKVILLE

MILTON



6. Scepter Corporation (Shi Properties Inc.) $6,400,000 1060 Speers Road 27,200

The GTA West market saw a rise in vacancy since last quarter. The Airport West submarket was the largest contributor to the rise in vacant space where Blackberry vacated approximately 238,800 square feet of space at 4701 and 4715 Tahoe Boulevard causing significant negative absorption this quarter. Although the velocity of deals taking place has slowed since last year, there is still a concentration of markets that are seeing momentum in lease deals and continued growth through developer interest. These markets are Meadowvale, Sheridan-Winston and Oakville. Notably, all three of these markets are directly intersecting with at least two major highways.

» Developer interest remains strong in the GTA West where there are numerous office developments totaling an estimated 1,175,520 square feet of new inventory to be delivered to the market in the coming years.

» There are several large RFPs in the market between 50,000 and 150,000 square feet.

TRENDSNotable Lease Notable Sale New Supply



1. Newsprint Productions Headlease 2200 Islington Ave 47,517

2. PWGSC Headlease 2 Robert Speck Parkway 37,266

3. AV Net Headlease 6950 Creditview Rd 27,000

4. IPEX Headlease 1425 North Service Rd 22,800

5. Bentley Canada Inc. Headlease 5046 Mainway Drive 19,350

2014 Q1 2014 Q2 TREND


Net Absorption (153,083) (397,572)







NOTABLE NEW SUPPLYPCOMING NEW SUPPLY ADDRESS STATUS CLASS FLOORS TOTAL OFFICE AREA (SF) DEVELOPER7. 7025 Langer Drive Completed A 3 64,613 GWL Realty Advisors Inc.

8. 6600 Financial Drive Completed B 44,960 2725312 Canada Inc. Bentall Capital

9. 4980 Tahoe Boulevard Under Construction A 6 202,000 Metrus Properties Ltd.

10. 60 Standish Court - West Tower Under Construction A 7 179,000 Orlando Corporation

11. 60 Standish Court - East Tower Under Construction A 6 156,000 Orlando Corporation

12. 1 Prologis Boulevard Under Construction A 5 146,863 Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan

13. 5015 Spectrum Way Under Construction A 5 134,000 HOOPP-Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan


0.0%

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12.0%

14.0%

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

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8

Weighted Average Asking Net Rent: The dollar amount requested by landlords for direct available space, not including subleases, expressed in dollars per square foot per year.

Availability: The amount of available space and available space to be delivered to the market within six months, divided by the market’s inventory base including those future deliveries. Available space is space that is available for lease, and may or may not be vacant.

Net Absorption: The net change in physically occupied space between the current measurement period, and the last measurement period. It can be either positive or negative.

Vacancy: The amount of vacant space divided by the building inventory base. Vacant space is physically unoccupied, and it may or may not be available for lease or sublease. This is physical vacancy. It is not determined whether a tenant is paying rent on the space.


GLOSSARY


FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

Absorption was calculated using moving averages of historical absorption data and supplemented with incoming new speculative and build-to-suit developments.

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Sarah GouldingAnalyst | Toronto

DIRECT: +1 (416) 643-3765 [email protected]

Join us at The Chair’s Reception for the Toronto Real Estate Forum December 2, 2014 Metro Toronto Convention Centre - South Building

toronto office market report q3 2014

Real Estate

gta housing market

toronto market

downtown market

major market

gta east

construction q2

gta north

gta west