topics’in environmental’science food’production’and ... ·...

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TOPICS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE:FOOD PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ENVSTUA 331 SONALI P. MCDERMID,PH.D. SPS246@NYU.EDU OFFICE HOURS:THURS 34:30 PM SPRING SEMESTER 2017 This syllabus is subject to modification and exact lecture topics will be determined as we make progress through the course. However, this will provide for you an overview of what to expect. COURSE DESCRIPTION AND OVERVIEW Roughly 40% of our Earth’s land surface is devoted to agriculture. Grasslands have been plowed over for industrial sized farming operations; forests have been razed to make fuel and highvalue commodities. The food we eat has a significant environmental impact, and, in turn, our food system stands to be tested with a changing environment. Food Production and Climate Change provides an overview of our current global food system embedded within larger environmental systems that it both impacts and depends on. We will explore the evolution of intensive food production, specifically in how humans have changed the land surface, and the environment, in order to meet increasing food demand. We will also learn how climate change, and the associated extreme events and variability, will challenge our ability to grow and harvest crops in a timely fashion to meet nutrition standards across the world. The impacts of climate change on food production vary largely across geographic, economic and even gender space. Finally, this course will review the environmental footprint of emerging food movements, their efficacy, and a host of alternative future food production trajectories that promise a range of environmental, socioeconomic and nutritional impacts.

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Page 1: TOPICS’IN ENVIRONMENTAL’SCIENCE FOOD’PRODUCTION’AND ... · your)comprehension)and)criticalthinkingoftheassignedreadingsandissues discussed)in)class.)The)questions)will)generally)ask)you)to)summarize)or)describe)

TOPICS  IN  ENVIRONMENTAL  SCIENCE:  FOOD  PRODUCTION  AND  CLIMATE  CHANGE  ENVST-­‐UA  331  SONALI  P.  MCDERMID,  PH.D.  [email protected]  OFFICE  HOURS:  THURS  3-­‐4:30  PM    

SPRING  SEMESTER  2017    

This  syllabus  is  subject  to  modification  and  exact  lecture  topics  will  be  determined  as  we  make  progress  through  the  course.  However,  this  will  provide  for  you  an  overview  of  what  to  expect.      COURSE  DESCRIPTION  AND  OVERVIEW    Roughly  40%  of  our  Earth’s  land  surface  is  devoted  to  agriculture.  Grasslands  have  been  plowed  over  for  industrial  sized  farming  operations;  forests  have  been  razed  to  make  fuel  and  high-­‐value  commodities.  The  food  we  eat  has  a  significant  environmental  impact,  and,  in  turn,  our  food  system  stands  to  be  tested  with  a  changing  environment.  Food  Production  and  Climate  Change  provides  an  overview  of  our  current  global  food  system  embedded  within  larger  environmental  systems  that  it  both  impacts  and  depends  on.  We  will  explore  the  evolution  of  intensive  food  production,  specifically  in  how  humans  have  changed  the  land  surface,  and  the  environment,  in  order  to  meet  increasing  food  demand.  We  will  also  learn  how  climate  change,  and  the  associated  extreme  events  and  variability,  will  challenge  our  ability  to  grow  and  harvest  crops  in  a  timely  fashion  to  meet  nutrition  standards  across  the  world.  The  impacts  of  climate  change  on  food  production  vary  largely  across  geographic,  economic  and  even  gender  space.  Finally,  this  course  will  review  the  environmental  footprint  of  emerging  food  movements,  their  efficacy,  and  a  host  of  alternative  future  food  production  trajectories  that  promise  a  range  of  environmental,  socio-­‐economic  and  nutritional  impacts.    

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     This  course  will  require  approximately  30-­‐40  pages  of  reading  per  week,  sometimes  supplemented  with  web-­‐based  research  and  an  occasional  quantitative  analysis.  Readings  will  be  a  combination  of  peer-­‐reviewed  studies,  popular  articles,  white  and  concept  papers  and  book  chapters.  The  variety  of  publication  mediums  is  meant  to  serve  a  multi-­‐fold  purpose  for  you:  it  will  familiarize  you  with  the  field’s  cutting  edge  research;  enable  you  to  evaluate  the  public’s  response  to  such  research  and  how  it  is  communicated;  and  allow  you  to  understand  more  deeply  the  implications  of  such  research  on  food  producers,  consumers  and  processors.  Some  of  these  readings,  particularly  those  taken  from  scientific  literature,  will  be  dense  and  may  prove  initially  challenging.  In  these  cases,  other  materials  will  be  supplied  to  help  you  gain  a  more  full  understanding  of  the  findings  and  implications.  You  will  also  be  required,  and  encouraged,  to  conduct  literature  searches  to  access  more  information  and  delve  more  deeply  into  weekly  topics.    Most  of  the  required  readings  will  be  provided  to  you  as  pdfs  on  NYUClasses,  or  emailed  out  just  after  class.      STUDENT  EXPECTATIONS    

On-­‐time  attendance  to  Lecture  and  Participation  Completion  of  ~30-­‐40  pages  of  weekly  readings  

Completion  of  weekly  assignments    One  15  page  (minimum,  excluding  references)  Final  Term  Paper  

 It  is  NYU  policy  that  all  work  is  expected  to  be  your  own.  Plagiarism  of  any  kind  will  result  in  a  failing  grade  for  the  class,  and  referral  to  an  academic  dean.  Plagiarism  

includes:  copying  sentences  or  fragments  from  any  source  without  quotes  or  

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references;  not  citing  every  source  used  in  your  papers;  citing  internet  information  without  proper  citation;  presenting  someone  else’s  work  as  your  own;  or  copying  verbatim  from  any  source.  You  are  subject  to  CAS’s  guidelines  for  Academic  

Integrity:  http://cas.nyu.edu/page/ug.academicintegrity    You  will  be  expected  to  attend  every  class,  as  the  readings  will  cover  some  of  the  topics  we  discuss  in  class  in  more  detail,  but  not  all  topics.  Your  active  listening  in  class  will  help  you  to  create  a  more  thorough  response  to  some  of  the  homework  prompts,  and  those  responses  that  receive  full  marks  will  incorporate  this.  This  is  college,  and  so  I  also  expect  that  you  will  take  initiative  to  look  further  into  terms  and  topics  you  are  unfamiliar  with  in  the  readings  (this  includes  asking  me).    Active  participation  will  be  encouraged  –  it  can  behoove  you  to  be  a  visible  contributor  in  class.  There  will  be  many  opportunities  to  do  so,  as  an  individual  and  as  discussions  questions  posed  to  groups  of  students  in  class,  so  please  be  ready  to  take  advantage  of  these  opportunities.  I  also  encourage  out-­‐of-­‐class  discussion  on  readings  and  response  topics,  and  if  several  are  you  are  pursuing  similar  lines  of  research  for  your  final  paper,  I  expect  that  you  will  discuss  this  amongst  yourselves.  However,  at  all  times,  all  work  should  be  your  own.        PREREQUISITES    ENVST-­‐UA  100  -­‐  Environmental  Systems  Science,  or  Permission  of  Instructor  

 GRADING  CRITERIA    

RESPONSIBILITY   PERCENT  OF  FINAL  GRADE  Assignments   60  Term  Paper   40  

Total   100      ASSIGNMENTS    As  you  are  about  to  learn  about  a  dynamic,  constantly  changing  field,  the  readings  for  this  course  are,  likewise,  being  constantly  being  updated.  As  such,  what  you  will  actually  be  assigned  to  ready  might  deviate  a  bit  from  the  readings  listed  here,  although  these  are  some  key  references  in  the  field  that  should  act  as  a  guide.  I  will  post  all  readings  you  are  responsible  for  on  NYUClasses  –  Resources,  and  it  is  your  responsibility  to  check  the  NYUClasses  course  page  regularly  for  updates,  assignments,  and  readings.  My  main  mode  of  communication  with  you  will  be  through  NYUClasses  messaging  service  as  well.  You  are,  of  course,  free  to  email  me  for  clarification  at  any  time.      When  assigned,  you  will  have  approximately  one  (1)  week  to  complete  each  assignment.  These  will  comprise  of  numerous  (~4-­‐10)  questions  designed  to  test  

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your  comprehension  and  critical  thinking  of  the  assigned  readings  and  issues  discussed  in  class.  The  questions  will  generally  ask  you  to  summarize  or  describe  various  concepts  in  your  own  words,  and  then  challenge  you  to  apply  these  concepts  in  thinking  about  climate-­‐agriculture  interactions.  The  responses  will  most  often  be  written,  in  short-­‐answer  or  short-­‐essay  form.  There  will  also  be  a  few,  general,  quantitative  questions  relating  to  observed  and  projected  trends  in  climate  variables  and  agricultural  production  over  time.  These  are  given  so  that  you  can  better  understand  the  transient  nature  of  global  environmental  change,  and  how  such  change  may  impact  interactions  between  our  food  system,  food  security,  and  the  environment.    The  assignment  will  generally  be  posted  Fridays  directly  following  the  week’s  classes,  and  is  due  by  5:00  pm  the  following  Friday.  Assignments,  along  with  all  class  correspondence,  will  be  posted  using  the  NYU  Classes  system.  Assignments  are  expected  to  be  typed  using  12  pt  font  and  spaced  with  either  single  of  1.5  spacing  (double  spacing  is  NOT  acceptable).  Assignments  should  either  be  emailed  to  me  or  uploaded  via  the  NYU  Classes  webpage,  or  maybe  submitted  as  a  GoogleDoc  (although  this  is  the  least  preferred  method).  Please  note:  all  assignments  MUST  have  your  last  name  in  the  filename.  Assignments  that  do  not  have  a  name  in  the  filename  will  automatically  be  deducted  10  points.  The  grading  of  each  assignment  will  follow  a  point  system  out  of  100.  10  points  will  be  deducted  for  each  day  the  assignment  is  late,  and  will  not  be  accepted  after  the  5th  day.  If  you  have  difficulty  in  complying  with  the  above,  or  any  other  questions,  please  contact  me  as  soon  as  possible.      TERM  PAPER    Due  Friday,  May  13th.  The  term  paper  will  be  “open  topic”,  in  that  the  student  may  choose  any  topic  related  to  the  themes  discussed  in  class.  Students  will  be  required  to  submit  a  paper  proposal  and  preliminary  list  of  references  to  the  instructor  for  approval.  If  the  topic  does  not  meet  instructor  approval,  the  student  may  seek  the  instructor’s  guidance  on  how  to  construct  a  topic  that  is  appropriate.    Disability  Disclosure  Statement:    Academic  accommodations  are  available  to  any  student  with  a  chronic,  psychological,  visual,  mobility,  learning  disability,  or  who  is  deaf  or  hard  of  hearing.  Students  should  please  register  with  the  Moses  Center  for  Students  with  Disabilities  at  212-­‐998-­‐4980.    NYU's  Henry  and  Lucy  Moses  Center  for  Students  with  Disabilities  726  Broadway,  2nd  Floor  New  York,  NY  10003-­‐6675  Telephone:  212-­‐998-­‐  4980  Voice/TTY  Fax:  212-­‐995-­‐  4114  Web  site:  http://www.nyu.edu/csd  

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   GENERAL  COURSE  OUTLINE      Unit  1:  Systems  thinking  –  What  are  the  linkages  between  food  production  and  the  environment?  What  happens  when  we  leave  components  out  of  the  system?    Week  1  -­‐  Systems  Thinking  in  Agriculture:  Production  and  the  Environment  

i. What  is  “systems  thinking”  1. How  does  it  apply  to  climate  studies?  2. How  does  it  apply  to  our  food  system?  

ii. Goal:  Identify  components  of  environmental  and  agricultural  systems  

1. Determine  how  they  function  together  2. Diagram  the  climate  and  agricultural  systems  

iii. Understand  implications  of  leaving  out  system  components  1. The  problem  of  “externalities”  (as  per  climate  change)  –  

what  is  the  cost  of  leaving  components  out  of  the  system  

iv. Apply  systems  thinking  to  the  definition  of  FAO  global  food  security  

v. Review  and  understand  course  objectives  1. Structure  and  Expectations  for  the  course  

Readings:    

i. Combs  et  al.,  (2013)  Thinking  in  Terms  of  Food  Systems  (www.css.cornell.edu/FoodSystems/Cnc96.html)  (7  pg)  

ii. TruCost  report  on  pricing  of  externalities  (Tables  and  Figures)  iii. Fearnside  PM  (2001)  Soybean  cultivation  as  a  threat  to  the  

environment  in  Brazil.  Environmental  Conservation  28(1):  23-­‐38  (15  pg)  

iv. FAO  Introduction  to  Food  Security  (3  pg)  v. Garnett  (2013)  Food  Sustainability:  problems,  perspectives  

and  solutions.    Proceedings  of  the  Nutrition  Society,  72:29-­‐39  (11  pages)  

vi. Bawden,  RJ  (1991)  Systems  Thinking  and  Practice  in  Agriculture.  J  of  Dairy  Science,  74:2362-­‐2372  (11  pages)  

vii. Ericksen  PJ  (2008)  Conceptualizing  food  systems  for  global  environmental  change  research.  Global  Environmental  Change  18:  234-­‐245  (12  pages)  

 Unit  2:  Our  Current  Climate  and  Food  Production  Systems      Week  2:  Our  Climate  System  and  its  Role  in  Agricultural  Production  

i. An  overview  of  our  Earth’s  climate  system  1. Earth’s  Energy  Balance  and  the  Greenhouse  Effect  

Page 6: TOPICS’IN ENVIRONMENTAL’SCIENCE FOOD’PRODUCTION’AND ... · your)comprehension)and)criticalthinkingoftheassignedreadingsandissues discussed)in)class.)The)questions)will)generally)ask)you)to)summarize)or)describe)

2. The  role  of  Greenhouse  Gases  ii. Atmospheric  temperature  and  variability,  moisture  and  

convection  iii. General  circulation  –  what  drives  the  atmosphere?  

1. Atmospheric  forces  2. Climate  zones  (water  limited  versus  energy  limited  

regions)  3. Monsoon  regions  

iv. Natural  Climate  Variability  1. ENSO    2. Paleoclimate  temperature  and  CO2  record    3. Climate  forcings  and  feedbacks  

v. Climate  and  soils  1. Cycling  of  important  soil  nutrients  

Readings:  i. IPCC  TAR  Chapter  1:  An  Overview  of  the  Climate  System  (14  pages)  

ii. IPCC  AR4  Chapter  1:  Historical  overview  of  Climate  Change  Science  (36  pages)  

iii. Handbook  of  Climate  Change  and  Agroecosystems  Vol.  1,  Chapter  1,  eds.  Rosenzweig  and  Hillel  (11  pages)  

iv. NASA’s  description  of  Earth’s  Energy  Balance:  http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page1.php  

v. IRI  Primer  on  ENSO:  http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/basics.html  

vi. Hansen  et  al.  (1997)  ENSO  Influences  on  Agriculture  in  the  Southeastern  United  States.  J.  of  Climate,  11:404-­‐411.  (7  pages)  

vii. The  Australian  Bureau  of  Meteorology  ENSO  webpage:  http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-­‐2010-­‐12/ENSO-­‐what.shtml  

viii. NASA’s  Primer  on  Soil  Forming  Factors:  http://soil.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.php?section=78  

   Week  3:  Current  Agricultural  Production    

i. Malthusian  projections  and  meeting  the  worlds  nutritional  needs  1. Why  has  food  production  seemingly  kept  up  with  

population?  2. What  are  the  limits  to  production?  

ii. Soil  Health  and  Fertility    1. The  Role  of  Carbon  2. The  Role  of  Nitrogen  3. Soil  ecosystems  and  nutrient  balance  

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4. Guest  lecture:  Angela  Kong,  soil  scientist,  NASA  GISS  iii. The  Green  Revolution  and  Introduction  to  modern  agriculture    

1. Land  use  change    2. The  introduction  of  High  Yield  Varieties  (HYVs)  3. The  introduction  of  synthetic  fertilizers  4. Management  and  Irrigation    

 Readings:  

1. Alexandratos  (2005)  Countries  with  Rapid  Population  Growth  and  Resource  Constraints:  Issues  of  Food,  Agriculture  and  Development.  Population  and  Development  Review  31(2):  237-­‐258  (22  pages)  

2. Sachs  J  (2008)  Are  Malthus’  Predicted  1798  Food  Shortages  Coming  True?  Scientific  American  (6  pages)  

3. Parikh  SJ,  James  BR  (2012)  Soil:  The  Foundation  of  Agriculture.  Nature  Education  Knowledge  3(10):2  (12  pages)  

4. The  Green  Revolution:  Curse  or  Blessing?  The  International  Food  Policy  Research  Institute  (4  pages)  

5. Hazell  PBR,  Ramasamy  C  (1991)  The  Green  Revolution  Reconsidered.  Chapter  2.  IFPRI  –  JHU  Press  (pages  1-­‐5)    

6. Erisman  JW,  Sutton  MA,  Galloway  J,  Kilmont  Z,  Winiwater  W  (2008)  How  a  century  of  ammonia  synthesis  changed  the  world.  Nature  Geoscience  1:  636-­‐639  (4  pages)  

7. Evenson  RE,  Gollin  D  (2003)  Assessing  the  Impact  of  Green  Revolution  1960-­‐2000.  Science  300,  758.  DOI:  10.1126/science.1078710  (6  pages)    

8. Gleeson  T  et  al  (2012)  Water  balance  of  global  aquifers  revealed  by  groundwater  footprint.  Nature.  DOI:  10.1038/nature11295  (4  pages)  

9. McNeill  JR,  Winiwarter  V  (2004)  Breaking  the  Sod:  Humankind,  History  and  Soil.  Science  304,  1627.  DOI:  10.1126/science.1099893  (3  pages)  

10. Pingali  PL  (2012)  Green  Revolution:  Impacts,  limits,  and  the  path  ahead.  PNAS.  109-­‐31.  DOI:  10.1073/pnas.0912953109  (7  pages)  

11. Ramankutty  and  Foley  (1999)  Estimating  historical  changes  in  global  land  cover:  Croplands  from  1700-­‐1992.  Global  Biogeochemical  Cycles  13:997-­‐1027  (31  pages)  

12. Kibblewhite  et  al.  (2008)  Soil  health  in  agricultural  systems.    Phil  Trans  R  Soc  B  363  (18  pages)  

13. Nafziger  E.  Chapter  5.  Cropping  Systems.  Dept  of  Crop  Sciences.  U  of  Illinois  (15  pages)  

   Weeks  4-­‐5:  Current  Climate-­‐Agriculture  Interactions  

i. Planetary  Boundaries  1.  Carrying  capacity  2.  Limits  to  resources  use  

ii. Potential  Production–  what  are  the  limits  on  agricultural  production  at  the  field  level?  

iii. Defining  and  Evaluating  Yield  Gaps  

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iv. Natural  climate  variability  and  crop  production    1.  Impact  of  El  Niño  events    2.  Food  Shocks  

v. Regional  Perspectives  of  Modern  Agriculture  1. South  Asia  2. Africa  3. South  America  4. USA  

vi. The  Dust  Bowl:  Causes  and  Implications    Readings:    For  the  Assignment  following  Lecture  12,  you  will  be  required  to  watch  Ken  Burns:  The  Dust  Bowl,  Episode  1.  This  is  available  through  Netflix  Instant  Watch,  at  Bobst  Library  or  for  purchase  on  Amazon  or  iTunes.  I  will  arrange  an  after  class  viewing  for  those  of  you  who  are  interested  as  well.      

i. Haggblade  (2004)  Building  on  Success  in  African  Agriculture.  IFPRI  (14  pages)  

ii. Livingston  et  al  (2011)  Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa:  The  state  of  smallholders  in  agriculture.  IFAD  Publications  Report.  Rome.  (20  pages)  

iii. Ittersum  et  al  (2013)  Yield  Gap  analysis  with  local  to  global  relevance  –  a  review.  Field  Crops  Research  143:  4-­‐17  (14  pages)  

iv. Lobell  et  al.  (2009)  Crop  Yield  Gaps:  Their  Importance,  Magnitudes  and  Causes.  Annu.  Rev.  Environ.  Resour.  34:179-­‐204  (15  selected  pages)  

v. Mueller  et  al  (2012)  Closing  yield  gaps  through  nutrient  and  water  management.  DOI:10.1038/nature11420  (4  pages)  

vi. Shiva  (1991)  The  Green  Revolution  in  the  Punjab.  The  Ecologist  21:  57-­‐60  (6  pages)  

vii. Indian  Agriculture  2012-­‐13.  Govt.  of  India,  Ministry  of  Agriculture.  New  Delhi  (pages  1-­‐34)  

viii. Morris  et  al.  Fertilizer  use  in  African  Agriculture.    Directions  in  Development.  The  World  Bank.  (pages  1-­‐29  and  45-­‐61)  

ix. Barona  et  al.  (2010)  The  role  of  pasture  and  soybean  in  deforestation  of  the  Brazilian  Amazon.  Environ  Res  Lett.  DOI:  10.1088/1748-­‐9326/5/2/024002  (10  pages)  

x. The  Economist.  The  miracle  of  the  cerrado.  Aug  26th,  2010.  (7  paegs)  www.economist.com/node/16886442/print    

xi. Rada  (2013)  Assessing  Brazil’s  Cerrado  agricultural  miracle.  Food  Policy  38:146-­‐155  (10  pages)  

xii. Schubert  et  al.  (2004)  On  the  Cause  of  the  1930s  Dust  Bowl.  Science  303,  1855  (6  pages)  

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xiii. Cook  et  al  (2009)  Amplification  of  the  North  American  “Dust  Bowl”  drought  through  human-­‐induced  land  degradation.  PNAS,  106.13:  4997-­‐5001.  (5  pages)  

 Readings  (suggested):      

xiv. Smil  V  (2004)  Enriching  the  Earth:  Fritz  Haber,  Carl  Bosch  and  the  Transformation  of  World  Food  Production.  MIT  Press  ISBN:  0-­‐262-­‐19449-­‐X    

xv. Information  on  modern  agricultural  inputs  and  how  this  affects  soil  and  nutrient  chemistry  

xvi. Warman  A  (2007)  Corn  and  Capitalism:  How  a  Botanical  Bastard  Grew  to  Global  Dominance.  U.  of  North  Carolina  Press.  ISBN:  0807854379  (book)  

xvii. Matson  PA  and  others  (2011)  Seeds  of  Sustainability:  Lessons  from  the  Birthplace  of  the  Green  Revolution  in  Agriculture.  Island  Press.  ISBN-­‐10:  1-­‐59726-­‐525-­‐X  

xviii. USDA-­‐ERS  Primer  on  corn  (and  other  crops)  with  figures  of  production  and  feed-­‐use  (hand-­‐out,  5  pages  plus  data)  

xix. Pimentel  D,  Pimentel  M  (2003)  Sustainability  of  meat-­‐based  and  plant-­‐based  diets  and  the  environment.  Am  J  Clin  Nutr  78(suppl):660S-­‐3S  (4  pages)  

xx. Livestock’s  Long  Shadow:  environmental  issues  and  options  (2006)  FAO  (26  pages)  

xxi. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/A0701E/A0701E00.pdf  xxii. Then  End  of  Cheap  Food  –  The  Economist  

http://www.economist.com/node/10252015  (3  pages,  to  be  revisited  in  “Solutions,  Section  6)  

xxiii. Contradiction  of  the  Green  Revolution  http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1821541?uid=3739832&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21101689221007  

xxiv.  Kaufman,  F  (2012)  Bet  the  Farm:  How  Food  Stopped  Being  Food.  John  Wiley  and  Sons  Inc.  ISBN:  978-­‐1-­‐118-­‐25904-­‐7  

xxv. Comments  on  the  economics  of  industrial  and  highly  mechanized  agriculture  and  food  processing  (and  implications  for  western  diets)  

xxvi. (http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/y5136e/y5136e0a.htm)  xxvii. Patel,  Rajeev  C.  (2012)  Food  Sovereignty:  Power,  Gender  and  

the  Right  to  Food.  PLoS  Medicine.  9:e1001223    Unit  3:  The  impact  of  climate  change  on  food  production      Weeks  6-­‐7:  The  impact  of  climate  change  on  food  production  

i. A  primer  on  climate  change  –  the  scientific  basis  1. Tools  used  in  climate  change  assessments  (models,  

remote  sensing,  etc.)  

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2. Benefits  and  limitations  of  these  methods  ii. Projected  global  changes  and  general  agricultural  

vulnerabilities:  a  problem  of  scale  and  time  1. Spatial  and  timescales  of  evaluation  2. General  global  impacts  on  crop  productivity  3. Specific  climatic  impacts  

a. Extreme  events  b. Drought  c. Rainfall  variability  d. Changes  in  mean  temperature  e. Water  availability  f. Coastal  inundation  

iii. Guest  Lecture:  Delphine  Deryng  –  the  impact  of  rising  CO2  levels  on  crop  production:  interactions,  implications,  and  uncertainties  

iv. Brief  Discussion  integrated  assessments  of  climate  change  on  food:  AgMIP  and  other  coordinated  activities  –  approach  and  generalizability  

v. Regional  perspectives  on  climate  change  impacts  on  agriculture  

1. South  Asia  2. Africa  3. South  America  4. USA  

vi. Characterization  of  uncertainties  in  climate  and  agricultural  projections  and  responses  

vii. Ongoing  efforts  to  understand  and  mitigate  vulnerability  of  agriculture  due  to  climate  change  

1. Pest  and  diseases  2. Market  interactions  

viii. What  are  farmer  options  in  various  regions  around  the  globe?  1. Have  we  seen  evidence  yet  of  climate  change  impacting  

yields  and  food  security?  (See  Chapt.  2  in  Handbook)  Readings:    

i. Lobell  and  Burke,  Climate  Change  and  Food  Security,  Chapter  1,  (pages  3-­‐11)  

ii. IPCC  AR4  Chapter  8  Climate  Models  (pages:  591-­‐593;  600-­‐601;  608-­‐612;  623-­‐625;  632,  Box  8.1)  

iii. IPCC  AR4  Chapter  9  Understanding  climate  change  (pages:  667-­‐678;  696;  727-­‐728)  

iv. IPCC  AR5  Summary  for  Policymakers  (All,  but  emphasis  on  the  highlighted  gold/beige  textboxes,  28  pages)  

v. Lobell,  D.B.  and  Tebaldi,  C.,  2014.  Getting  caught  with  our  plants  down:  the  risks  of  a  global  crop  yield  slowdown  from  climate  trends  in  the  next  two  decades.  Environmental  Research  Letters,  9(7):  074003  (9  pages)  

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vi. Knox  et  al  (2012)  Climate  change  impacts  on  crop  productivity  in  Africa  and  South  Asia.  Environ.  Res.  Lett  7.  doi:10.1088/1748-­‐9326/7/3/034032  (9  pages)  

vii. Funk  et  al.  (2008)  Warming  of  the  Indian  Ocean  threatens  eastern  and  southern  African  food  security  but  could  be  mitigated  by  agricultural  development.  PNAS.  105.  (6  pages)  

viii. Hansen  et  al.  (2012)  Perception  of  climate  change.  PNAS.  (9  pages)  www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1205276109  

ix. Lal  (2011)  Implications  of  climate  change  in  sustained  agricultural  productivity  in  South  Asia.  Reg  Environ  Change  11:S79-­‐S94  (16  pages)  

x. Lobell  and  Burke,  Climate  Change  and  Food  Security,  Chapter  1,  (pages  136-­‐152)  

xi. Oxfam  Issue  Briefing  (2012)  Extreme  Weather,  Extreme  Prices:  The  costs  of  feeding  a  warming  world  (14  pg)  

xii. Howden  SM  et  al  (2007)  Adapting  Agriculture  to  climate  change.  PNAS  104:19691-­‐19696  (6  pages)    

 Readings  (suggested):      

xiii. Fischer  G,  et  al  (2005)  Socio-­‐economic  and  climate  change  impacts  on  agriculture:  an  integrated  assessment,  1990-­‐2080.  Phil  Trans  R  Soc  B  360:2067-­‐2083  (17  pages)    

1. Samples  of  the  types  of  models  and  tools  used  xiv. Rosenzweig,  C.,  J.W.  Jones,  J.L.  Hatfield,  A.C.  Ruane,  K.J.  Boote,  P.  

Thorburn,  J.M.  Antle,  G.C.  Nelson,  C.  Porter,  S.  Janssen,  S.  Asseng,  B.  Basso,  F.  Ewert,  D.  Wallach,  G.  Baigorria,  and  J.M.  Winter,  2013:  The  Agricultural  Model  Intercomparison  and  Improvement  Project  (AgMIP):  Protocols  and  pilot  studies.  Forest.  Agr.  Meteorol.,  170,  166-­‐182,  doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011.  

xv. Alderman,  H  (2010)  Safety  Nets  can  help  address  the  risks  to  nutrition  from  increasing  climate  variability.  J  of  Nutrition  140:  148S-­‐152S  (5  pg)  

xvi. Jones  J,  Comparative  Assessment  of  Agricultural  uses  of  ENSO-­‐based  climate  forecasts  in  Argentina,  Costa  Rica  and  Mexico.  (28  pg)  

xvii. Parry  M,  Rosenzweig  C,  Livermore  M  (2005)  Climate  change,  global  food  supply  and  risk  of  hunger.  Phil  Trans  R  Soc  B  360:2125-­‐2138  (14  pgs)  

 Unit  4:  Interactions  between  Food  Production  and  the  Environment.  The  contribution  of  our  food  system  to  environmental  changes    Weeks  8-­‐9:  Ascertaining  the  global  footprint  of  agriculture    

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i. Agriculture’s  Carbon  Footprint  ii. Deforestation  and  land  clearing    

1. Soil  carbon  contributions  and  exchanges    iii. Inputs-­‐related  emissions  iv. Production-­‐related  emissions  v. Distribution-­‐related  emissions  vi. Effect  of  diet  on  emissions  vii. Breakdown  of  the  CGIAR  agricultural  emissions  tables  viii. Energy  and  carbon  efficiency  of  different  foodstuffs    ix. Foodwaste  x. The  regional/local  footprint  of  agriculture  

1. South  Asia  2. Africa  3. South  America  4. USA  

xi. Soil  and  land  degradation  and  the  impact  of  industrial  farming  on  regional  environments:  case  studies  

xii. Local  changes  in  climate/circulation  xiii. Water  resources  (depletion,  pollution  and  appropriation)  xiv. Impact  on  pollinators    xv. Impact  of  biofuel  production  on  food  crop  production  xvi. Brief  discussion  of  socio-­‐economic  implications  of  

environmental  degradation  associated  with  agriculture  1. Farmer  consolidation,  debt  and  impacts  on  gender  

inequality  2. Implications  for  changes  in  cultural  staples  and  

nutritional  profile  3. The  link  between  palate-­‐development  and  intensive  

farming  practices  related  to  palate-­‐appeasing  crops  4. Impact  of  biofuel  production  on  food  price  volatility  and  

shocks    

 Readings  

i. Readings  from  the  IPCC  Fourth  Assessment  Report:  Working  Group  3,  Chapter  8:  Agriculture  (44  pages)  

ii. Vermuelen  SJ,  Campbell  BM,  Ingram  JSI  (2013)  Climate  Change  and  food  systems.  Ann.  Rev  Environ  Resources  37:195-­‐222  (33  pg)  

iii. DeFries  RS  et  al  (2010)  Deforestation  driven  by  urban  population  growth  and  agricultural  trade  in  the  twenty-­‐first  century.  Nature  Geoscience,  doi:10.1038/NGEO756  (4  pages)  

iv. IPCC  land  use  change:  http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/land_use/index.php?idp=0  

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v. Tubiello  et  al  (2014)  FAO  Report  on  Agricultural  Emissions  (pages  27-­‐50)  

vi. Gray  JM  et  al  (2014)  Direct  human  influence  on  atmospheric  CO2  seasonality  from  increased  cropland  productivity.  doi:10.1038/nature13957  (17  pages)  

vii. WRI  Food  Security  Report:  Reducing  Food  Waste  (pages  1-­‐9)  

viii. DeFries  R,  Rosenzweig  C  (2010)  Toward  a  whole-­‐landscape  approach  for  sustainable  land  use  in  the  tropics.  PNAS  107(46):19627-­‐19632  (6  pg)  

ix. Carlson-­‐Kanyama  A,  Gonzalez  AD  (2009)  Potential  Contributions  of  Food  Consumption  Patterns  to  Climate  Change.  Am  J  Clin  Nutr  89(suppl):1704S-­‐9S  (6  pg)  

x. Weber  CL,  Matthews  HS  (2008)  Food-­‐Miles  and  the  Relative  Climate  impacts  of  food  choices  in  the  United  States.  Envron.  Sci  Technol.  42:3508-­‐3513  (6  pg)  

xi. Smith  P,  Gregory  PJ  (2012)  Climate  Change  and  sustainable  food  production.  Proc  of  the  Nutrition  Soc  72:21-­‐28  (8  pgs)  

xii. Rodell  M  et  al  (2009)  Satellite-­‐based  estimates  o  f  groundwater  depletion  in  India.  Nature,  doi:10.1038/nature08238  (5  pages)  

xiii. Potts  SG  et  al  (2010)  Global  pollinator  declines:  trends,  impacts  and  drivers.  Trends  in  Ecology  and  Evolution  25(6):345-­‐353  (9  pg)  

xiv. Green  RE,  Cornell  SJ,  Scharlemann  JPW,  Balmford  A  (2004)  Farming  and  the  fate  of  wild  nature.  Science  207:550-­‐555  (7  pages)  

xv. Shukla  SP,  Puma  MJ,  Cook  BI  (2013)  The  impact  of  intensifying  irrigation  on  the  South  Asian  summer  monsoon  system  in  GCM  simulations.  Climate  Dynamics.  (and  references  therein)  (8  pg)  

xvi. Tillman  D  (1999)  Global  environmental  impacts  of  agricultural  expansion:  the  need  for  sustainable  and  efficient  practices.  PNAS  96:  5995-­‐6000  (6  pg)  

xvii. Godfray  HCJ,  Beddington  JR,  Crute  IR,  Haddad  L,  Lawrence  D,  Muir  JF,  Pretty  J,  Robinson  S,  Thomas  SM,  Toulmin  C  (2010)  Food  Security:  The  Challenge  of  Feeding  9  Billion  People.  Science  327.  DOI:10.1126/science.1185383  (8  pages)    

Readings  (suggested)    

xviii. De  Fraiture  C,  Molden  D,  Wichelns  D  (2010)  Investing  in  water  for  food,  ecosystems  and  livelihoods:  an  overview  of  the  comprehensive  assessment  of  water  management  

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in  agriculture.  Agricultural  Water  Management  97:495-­‐501  (7pg)  

xix. Every  Thirty  Minutes:  Farmer  Suicides,  Human  Rights,  and  the  Agrarian  Crisis  in  India.  Center  for  human  rights  and  global  justice.  NYU  Law  (53  pg)  

xx. Gender  and  climate  change  research  in  agriculture  and  food  security  for  rural  development.  CGIAR,  CCAFS,  FAO  

xxi. The  state  of  food  and  agriculture  –  Women  in  agriculture.  Closing  the  gender  gap  for  development  (2011)  FAO,  Rome,  Italy  

xxii. Nelson  V  et  al  (2002)  Uncertain  predictions,  invisible  impacts  and  the  need  to  mainstream  gender  in  climate  change  adaptations.  Gender  and  Development  10(2):51-­‐59  (10  pgs)  

     Unit  5:  Interactions  between  Environmental,  Food  and  Social  Systems  –  specific  crop  examples.      Week  10:  These  examples  will  delve  into  the  historical  domestication,  modern  production,  environmental  impacts,  susceptibility  to  climate  change,  social  ramifications,  supply/demand,  and  farmer  options    

i. Maize  ii. Coffee  

Readings    

i. Jaramillo  J,  et  al.  (2011)  Some  like  it  hot.  The  influence  and  Implications  of  Climate  Change  on  Coffee  Berry  Borer  and  Coffee  Production  in  East  Africa.  PLoS  One,  6:9,  e24528  

ii. Rahn  E,  et  al.  (2013)  Climate  change  adaptation,  mitigation  and  livelihood  benefits  in  coffee  production:  where  are  the  synergies?  Mitig  Adapt  Strateg  Glob  Change.  Doi:  10.1007/s11027-­‐013-­‐9467-­‐x  

iii. Naqvi  S,  et  al.  (2011)  High-­‐value  products  from  transgenic  maize.  Biotech.  Adv  29:  40-­‐53.  

iv. Carter  CA,    HI  Miller  (2012)  “Corn  for  Food,  Not  Fuel”.  The  New  York  Times.  Accessed  11/8/2013  at  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/opinion/corn-­‐for-­‐food-­‐not-­‐fuel.html    

Unit  6:  Potential  alternatives  –  does  non-­‐conventional  agriculture  (organic,  bio-­‐dynamic,  etc.)  preserve,  conserve  and  reduce  environmental  damage?  What  are  the  roles  of  the  various  certifications  and  what  components  of  the  above  systems  do  these  certifications  tackle  (Fair  Trade,  USDA,  Good  Guide,  etc.)?  Are  certifications  a  

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band-­‐aid  or  a  means  to  an  (sustainable)  end?  Is  there  climate  change  mitigation  potential  for  agricultural  lands?    Week  11:  What  are  the  different  forms  of  non-­‐conventional  agriculture?  

i. Precision  Agriculture  and  Environmental  Monitoring  1. Are  production  methods  getting  “better”?  2. Future  for  large-­‐scale  production  3. How  can  advanced  monitoring  systems  be  useful  in  

understanding  agriculture-­‐environment  interactions?  ii. Organic  Production  and  environmental  benefits  of  alternatives  iii. Defining  and  Evaluating  Conservation  Agriculture  

1. Review  major  studies  and  initiatives  in  conservation  agriculture  

2. What  impact  does  conservation  agriculture  have  on  plant  nutrient  content?    

a. Soil  health?    b. Soil  moisture  content,  etc?  

iv. To  employ  these  techniques,  do  we  require  more  land  area?  1. Land  sparing  vs  land  sharing  

v. What  is  the  role  of  technology  in  agricultural  adaptation  to  climate  change?  

vi. Studies  showing  impact  of  conservation  agriculture  on  environment  

vii. Studies  showing  impact  of  conservation  agriculture  on  farmer  livelihood  

 Readings    

i. Readings  from  the  IPCC  Fourth  Assessment  Report:  Working  Group  3,  Chapter  8:  Agriculture  (44  pages)  

ii. Garnett  T  and  Godfray  C  (2012).  Sustainable  intensification  in  agriculture.  Navigating  a  course  through  competing  food  system  priorities,  Food  Climate  Research  Network  and  the  Oxford  Martin  Programme  on  the  Future  of  Food,  University  of  Oxford,  UK  (11  pages)  

iii. Pimentel  D  (2004)  Changing  genes  to  feed  the  world.  Science,  306:  825  (1  pg)    iv. Sachs  J  (2010)  Monitoring  the  world’s  agriculture.  Nature,  466:  558-­‐560  v. Gilbert  N  (2013)  A  Hard  Look  at  GM  Crops.  Nature  497:  24-­‐27  (3  pages)  vi. Foley  JA  et  al  (2011)  Solutions  for  a  cultivated  planet.  Nature  

doi:10.1038/nature104523  (  6  pages)  vii. Snapp  et  al  (2010)  Biodiversity  can  support  a  greener  revolution  in  Africa.  

PNAS.  107/48:20840-­‐20845  (6  pages)  viii. Hobbs  PR  (2007)  Conservation  agriculture:  what  is  it  and  why  is  it  

important  for  future  sustainable  food  production?  J  of  Agricultural  Science,  145,  127-­‐137  (11  pages)  

ix. Seufurt  V  et  al  (2012)  Comparing  the  yields  of  organic  and  conventional  agriculture.  Nature  doi:10.1038/nature11069  (6  pages)  

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x. Phalan  B  et  al  (2011)  Reconciling  Food  Production  and  Biodiversity  Conservation:  Land  Sharing  and  Land  Sparing  Compared.  Science,  doi:10.1126/science.1208742  (4  pages)  

xi. Burney  JA  et  al  (2009)  Greenhouse  gas  mitigation  by  agricultural  intensification.  PNAS,  doi:10.1073/pnas.0914216107  (6  pages)  

xii. Gomiero  T,  Pimentel  D,  Paoletti  MG  (2011)  Environmental  impact  of  different  agricultural  management  practices:  conventional  vs  organic  agriculture.  Critical  Rev  in  Plant  Sci.  30(1-­‐2).  DOI:10.1080/07352689.2011.554355  (pages  105-­‐111)  

 Field  Trip  –  Optional  visit  to  Farm  (TBA)    Week  12:  Certifications  and  ratings  

i. Organic,  Fair  Trade,  Rainforest  Alliance,  REDD  etc.  ii. Review  studies  that  comment  on  efficacy  of  ratings    

1. Have  ratings  contributed  to  environmental  health  in  agriculture?    

2. Has  it  prompted  preservation  of  lands  that  would  otherwise  be  abused  due  to  agriculture?  

iii. What  is  the  impact  of  these  certifications  on  farmers?  On  consumers?  

iv. How  does  increased  demand  for  certified  products  impact    global  resource  use?  

1. Who  does  conservation/responsible  agriculture  help  (farmer  perspective,  consumer  perspective)?  

v. Quality  and  Nutrients    1. Climate  change  impacts  to  food  nutrient  content    2. Agricultural  adaptation  strategies  and  nutrition  (how  

do  climate  adaptations  contribute  to  all  facets  of  food  security)?  

3. Jeff  Watts  article  on  focus  on  quality  vi. Across  groups  –  disagreement  on  how  to  move  forward  

(scaling  to  large-­‐holders)  1. Does  Fair  Trade  stay  niche  or  become  new  norm?  

vii. Food  Sovereignty  (short  film  on  La  Via  Campesina)  1. Fundamental  basis  2. Ongoing  practice  3. Efficacy  to  both  environmental  and  ecosystems  services  

and  implications  for  farmer  welfare  and  global  food  system  

4. Can  we  measure  the  impact  of  this  movement  on  the  environment?  

 Readings    

i. Myers  SS  (2014)  Increasing  CO2  threatens  human  nutrition.  Nature  doi:10.1038/nature13179  (11  pages)  

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ii. Anderson,  M.D.  and  Cook,  J.T.  (2000)  Does  food  security  require  local  food  systems?  InJ.M.  Harris  (ed)  Rethinking  Sustainability:  Power,  Knowledge  and  Institutions  (pp.228-­‐248).  Ann  Arbor:  University  of  Michigan  Press  (pages  228-­‐248)  

iii. DeLind  L  (2011)  Are  local  food  and  the  local  food  movement  taking  us  where  we  want  to  go?  Or  are  we  hitching  our  wagons  to  the  wrong  stars?  Agric  Hum  Values  28:273-­‐283  (11  pg)  

iv. Golden  JS  et  al.  (2010)  An  overview  of  ecolabels  and  sustainability  certifications  in  the  global  marketplace.    Corporate  Sustainability  Initiative  Interim  Report  2010-­‐10-­‐1.  Duke  University  

v. Golden  JA  (ed)  (2010)  An  Overview  of  Ecolabels  and  Sustainability  Certifications  in  the  Global  Marketplace.  Duke  Corporate  Sustainability  Initiative  Interim  Report  (pages  29-­‐34)  

vi. Bacon  CM  et  al.  (2008)  Are  sustainable  coffee  certifications  enough  to  secure  farmer  livelihoods?  The  MDGs  and  Nicaragua’s  fair  trade  cooperatives.  Globalizations  5(2):259-­‐274  (17  pg)  

vii. Access  to  opportunity:  enabling  smallholder  and  community  participation  in  social  and  environmental  certification  standards.  CCB  Standards  for  Smallholder  Initiative  2012.  Rainforest  Alliance  

viii. Beyond  forestry:  why  agriculture  is  key  to  the  success  of  REDD+.  IIED  Briefing  November  2010  (4  pages)  www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=17086IIED  

ix. Horrigan  L  et  al.  (2002)  How  sustainable  agriculture  can  address  the  environmental  and  human  health  harms  of  industrial  agriculture.  Environ  Health  Perspectives  110:  445-­‐456)  (12  pg)  

   Week  13  Guest  Lecture  on  farmer  adaptation  strategies  to  climate  change  in  the  developing  world      _________________________________________________________________________________________________  Suggested  Additional  Readings      

i. GM:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6338377.stm  ii. Fedoroff  NV,  Brown  NM  (2004)  Mendel  in  the  Kitchen:  A  scientist’s  

view  of  genetically  modified  food.  Joseph  Henry  Press.  (book)  iii. Matson  PA  and  others  (2011)  Seeds  of  Sustainability:  Lessons  from  

the  Birthplace  of  the  Green  Revolution  in  Agriculture.  Island  Press.  ISBN-­‐10:  1-­‐59726-­‐525-­‐X  

iv. Friedman,  H    From  colonialism  to  green  capitalism:  Social  movements  and  emergence  of  food  regimes.  ISBN:  978-­‐0-­‐76231-­‐250-­‐4  http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1759128  

v. Clancy  K  (2006)  Union  of  Concerned  Scientists.  Greener  Pastures.  How  grass-­‐fed  beef  and  milk  contribute  to  healthy  eating.  

vi. Robertson  GP,  Harwood  RR  (2001)  Agriculture,  Sustainable.  Encyc.  Of  Biodiversity  (1)  99-­‐108  (10  pgs)    

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vii. Al-­‐Kaisi  M  (2008)  Impact  of  tillage  and  crop  rotation  systems  on  soil  carbon  sequestration.  Iowa  State  University  Extension.  PM  1871  

viii. Alderman,  H  (2010)  Safety  Nets  can  help  address  the  risks  to  nutrition  from  increasing  climate  variability.  J  of  Nutrition  140:  148S-­‐152S  (5  pg)  

ix. Report  from  a  fact  finding  mission:  Women,  gender  and  conservation  in  agriculture  in  Zambia.  Norad  Report  5/2011  

x. Kassam  A,  Friedrich  T  (2011  a,b)  Conservation  Agriculture:  global  perspectives  and  developments.  FAO  Regional  conservation  agriculture  symposium  8-­‐10  February.  (33+)  

xi. Michael  Pollan.  In  Defense  of  Food  (book)  xii. FoodWorks  Initiative  by  Speaker  Christine  Quinn’s  office  xiii. Gardner  R  (2012)  Serious  ‘Sustainability’.  Wall  Street  Journal,  Oct  3rd,  

2012  xiv. UN  Collaborative  Programme  on  Reducing  Emissions  from  

Deforestation  and  Forest  Degradation  in  Developing  Countries  (REDD).  Framework  document  20  June  2008  

xv. Brandt  K,  Leifert  C,  Sanderson  R,  Seal  CJ  (2011)  Agroecosystem  Management  and  Nutritional  Quality  of  Plant  Foods:  The  Case  of  Organic  Fruits  and  Vegetables.  Crit  Rev  in  Plact  Sciences  30(1-­‐2).  DOI:  0.1080/07352689.2011.554417  

xvi. Spangler-­‐Smith  C,  et  al.  (2012)  Are  organic  foods  safer  or  healthier  than  conventional  alternatives?  A  systematic  review.  Ann  Intern  Med  157(5):348-­‐66.  DOI:  10.7326/0003-­‐4819-­‐157-­‐5-­‐201209040-­‐00007  (18  pages)