Topics1 Global Perspective2 China Situation3 United States4 California5 ConclusionsMark D. LevineMDLevine@lbl.govFor Energy & Climate Mini-WorkshopMonday, 3 November 2008Intensity of Energy Use

Intensity of Energy Use

Definition

Reducing intensity of energy use includes: energy efficiency structural change in economy (producing and consuming less energy-intensive products) energy conservation

1 Global Perspective

Source: Historical 1950-2003 US and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2004-2006 US data from BP via Global Carbon Project. China 1950-2006 emissions data are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon coefficients by LBNL: 1950-2003;2004-2006BP1950-2006-20071996 IPCC.

Annual Global CO2 Emissionsbillion tonnes carbon dioxideChina US Other Global Emissions

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70%.Total GHG emissions05101520253035404550556019701980199020002004Gt CO2 eq/yrWEO 07 base case for 2030 has 55% increase from 2005 (increase of 25 Gt CO2 eq/yr)

IPCC (WGIII) Estimates of Economically Feasible CO2eq/yr Reductions in 2030 by Sector* From Design to Win (2007), a project of several foundations led by the Hewlett Foundationin 2030Total reductionsLow: 13Gt/yrHigh 24Gt/yConstantemissions 25Gt/yr6*4*4*3*3*3*2*

Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001IEA dataEIA datanote: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data- 1.3%- 1.3%Average = - 0.7%

Strategic Considerations

Two crucial immediate actions needed(1) energy efficiency, (2) land use, and (3) cost-effective low carbon (electricity) supplyVery aggressive RD&D, especially on zero-carbon electricity (including electricity storage)

Much stronger government policies neededCarbon tax (or cap and trade) Rigorous policies are needed for all end-use sectorsEfficiency and fuel economy standards, building codes and retrofit requirements, and expanded demand-side management (DSM)Few countries address industrial sector

Beyond energy efficiency: conservation and structural changeChange production processes (e.g., cement)Change industrial output and consumption patternsLifestyle change

2 United States

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19732005

Source: David Goldstein

United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time020040060080010001200140016001800200019471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)Refrigerator Use per Unit1978 Cal Standard1990 Federal Standard1987 Cal Standard1980 Cal Standard1993 Federal Standard2001 FederalStandardEstimated Standby Power (per house)

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High #is worst

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High #is worst

Environmental Energy Technologies* , p. *

High #is worst

3 China

Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - Energy & GDP Growth in China(GDP)Primary Energy Use (EJ)152 EJ (official GDP)152()103 EJ (revised GDP)103()58 EJ (actual)58()Estimated energy use at 1980 GDP energy intensity1980Actual energy use(1950-2002)

Energy-conservation policies & measures in Phase IIEnergy Managementfactory energy consumption quotasfactory energy conservation monitoringefficient technology promotionclose inefficient facilitiescontrols on oil useFinancial Incentiveslow interest rates for efficiency project loansreduced taxes on efficient product purchases incentives to develop new efficient productsmonetary awards to efficient enterprisesR D & Dfunded strategic technology developmentfunded demonstration projects

Information Servicesnational information networknational, local, and sectoral efficiency technical service centers

Education & Trainingnational, local, and sectoral efficiency training centersEnergy Conservation Weekschool curricula

Source: NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth estimates extrapolated from mid-year production data for 2005; targets announced by NDRC(2005)20052005Energy Consumed (billion tce)36Actual GDPEnergy and GDP, Path to 2020(2020)GDP (trillion 2000 RMB)3228242016128402.72.42.11.81.51.20.90.60.30Actual energyenergy targetGDP target(2000)

million tons carbon dioxideAnnual CO2 Emissions: US & ChinaSource: US annual emissions amounts reported by US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007 Flash Estimate; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL: 20062007;20071996 IPCC.ChinaUS

Source: China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL; China population data from NBS and US Census (for 1950-51); global and American emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; global and American population data from US Census20071996 IPCC.(1950-51)Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 1950-20041950-2004tons CO2/personChina US Global Average /

Source: China Iron and Steel Association; Institute of Technical Information for the Building Materials Industry; U.S. Geological SurveyMillion Metric Tons Chinas Steel Production 1990 2007Coal Use & Energy-Related CO2Chinas Cement Production 1990 20071990-20071990-2007

Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2008. Mineral Commodity Summaries: Cement; China National Bureau of Statistics, 20082008 ;2008India 6%Cement Production Worldwide: 20072007United States 4% (includes Puerto Rico)Japan 3%Rep of Korea 2%Russia 2%Spain 2%Turkey 2%Mexico 2%Italy 2%Rest of World 26%China ~50%

Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory- kgce/RMB (2000)Industrial Energy Intensities are Declining1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.2Smelting & rolling of ferrous metals02.0Petroleum, coke & nuclearNon-metal mineral products ChemicalsNon-ferrous metalsPaperCoalElectricityTextiles/2000

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China has mounted an aggressive set of programs to reduce energy intensity by 20% from 2005 to 2010It is likely to achieve a 15% reduction in energy intensityBecause of large future CO2 emissions of China, there is a strong case to be made for international support for China to reduce growth of emissions

4 California

California

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)

Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and StandardsCEC (2005)

Fig3 CumEffSavings

055.6470.2788585068

0147.5496119.0178261592

0259.7184996.7120422606

0635.19741649.9634508271

16.4121038.59063621.1841919833

63.1521225.01585217.2112019485

194.4681359.9697203.2835170288

394.6521405.81328950.4559221165

712.5321520.915410666.7779077929

1101.721878.287412772.0734978989

1531.4362220.890413751.9535464254

1973.4882563.036614460.4019519753

2535.12927.67515013.6630998114

3054.63411.591415232.0950738582

3586.5923826.663815295.3877472892

4069.7164115.939415360.5600712319

4545.2324358.051415862.6804026916

5086.4964674.74516229.4169386753

5579.5324845.55316574.8175688505

6223.3845243.216416901.759330871

6820.6725673.201817753.1282399304

7423.9446033.349817855.2216743267

8029.266463.234218045.8247751999

8628.0446904.988418074.2125167174

9226.7687351.754217926.1199974395

9823.4647818.308417951.8866450506

10407.744838317955.8243868796

10977.016905617783.2451129399

12275973917579

--15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003

Appliance Standards

Building Standards

Efficiency Programs

GWh

Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in California Annual drop averages 4% per year05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006kWh/YEARSource: CEC Demand Analysis Office1992 Federal Appliance StandardCalifornia Title 20 Appliance Standards1976-1982Initial California Title 24 Building StandardsEstimated Impact of 2006 SEER 12 Standards100%33%

Annual Spending on Electricity Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003)

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Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003)Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008)

Projected Impact of EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013)Utilities forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annuallyThe three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to 75% from base case expectations) over coming 10 years!

5 Observations and Conclusions

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Greatest Needs to Reduce Energy IntensityWhat we cant do well enough = need for RD&DNear zero-energy commercial buildingsElectricity storage, especially batteries for vehiclesIndustrial process and product substitution (including dematerialization)Changes in behavior and lifestyleU.S. PolicyMore rigorous standards and codes for buildings, industry, and automobilesTransfer DSM capabilities among utilitiesOpen discussion of cap and trade vs. carbon taxInternational, especially China and IndiaPhase out CDM too expensive and not effectivePrograms to support policies to reduce GHG emissions

Annual reduction in energy intensity (energy/GDP) world wide have averaged 1% over the last 20 years (Note: IEA numbers say energy has growth at 1.8%/y and GWP at 3.2%/yr over past 25 yrs; difference is 1.4%/year rather than 1%/year_GWP had grown 3.2%/yr over the past 25 years (WEO) and is expected to grow at 3.6%/yr over coming 25 years (WEO, 07, p. 61)With ref case energy growing at 1.8%/yr, then energy/GDP decreases by 1.8%/yearShows the estimated growth of standby power, compared to refrigerators. Standby power is still unregulated, and is already 5-10% of world residential kWh use.

This shows the need for vigilance and an aggressive standards program

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