Topic for Today:Transitology and Pacts

1. Types of transition (Huntington).

2. Balance of power in negotiations.

3. Pact-Making.

Types of Transition By Sources of Democratization

Transformation Ruling elites take lead in democratizing

Replacement Opposition groups take lead

Transplacement Joint actions by government and opposition

(Source: Huntington, p. 114)

Conditions for Transformation

1. Emergence of reformers within regime.

– Several possible reasons for emergence.

Conditions for Transformation

2. Reformers must acquire power within regime.

1. Old leader dies.• E.g. Spain.

2. New reformers rise through ranks of party.• E.g. Mexico.

3. Reformers oust hardliners.• E.g. Nigeria.

Conditions for Transformation

3. Failure of liberalization alone – demands for democracy.

• E.g. USSR.

Conditions for Transformation

4. Subdue the hardliners.1. Centralize decisionmaking so only

reformers influence decisions.

2. Purge areas of government, bureaucracy, military where hardliners dominate.

3. In purging hardliners, make argument about “returning to legitimacy.”

Conditions for Transformation

5. Coopt the opposition. • Get prominent opposition

members on side.

• Often through “pacts.”

ReplacementsExamples

• Romania

• Argentina

• Greece

• East Germany

Typically personal dictatorships.

Replacements

1. Regime dominated by hardliners.

2. Opposition gains strength until government collapses or is overthrown.

3. Military support of opposition usually key.

4. Clean break with past.

5. Leaders of old regime often face nasty fates.

TransplacementsExamples

• Poland

• Czechoslovakia

• South Africa

Transplacements

1. Combined actions of government and opposition.

2. Government and opposition both realize they are not powerful enough to determine regime type.

3. Characterized by negotiations, flip-flops.

4. Softliners & moderates come to feel bound together by fate.

Balance of Power between Sides in Negotiations

(Przeworski)

Balance of Power between Sides in Negotiations

• Scenario 1: – Balance of forces is known and

uneven institutional arrangements that ratify this balance.

– E.g. Chile 1932.

Balance of Power between Sides in Negotiations

• Scenario 2: – Balance of forces known to be equal

several potential outcomes: • civil war (e.g. Russia 1993, Argentina

1800s);• institutions that don’t work; • institutions that work and are durable

(e.g. Poland 1989).

Balance of Power between Sides in Negotiations

• Scenario 3: – Balance of forces unknown

institutions will include extensive checks and balances and will be durable.

Pact-Making

“Pact”??

“An explicit...agreement among a select set of actors which seeks to define rules governing the exercise of power on the basis of mutual guarantees for the ‘vital interests’ of those entering into it.”

O’Donnell & Schmitter, p. 37

Timing of Pacts

• Can occur at any time, early or late in liberalizing process.

• Early-stage pact includes few actors.

• Most common in later stages, when both sides realize that neither can impose ideal arrangement.

Afghan Case• Bonn Agreement (Dec. 5, 2001).• Loya jirga as interim Afghan

administration:– Representative, but not fully democratic.– 2002: selected transitional government

to govern until elections.– 2003: negotiated and approved

constitution.

South African Case• 1990: ANC and National Party agreed to form

congress to draft interim constitution.• 1991-1992: CODESA met, included 17 parties and

regional governments. – 1991 Declaration of Intent (on website)

• 1992: CODESA collapse Mandela and de Klerk negotiations – Sept. 1992: Record of Understanding (on website)

• 1993: MPNP drafted interim constitution.• 1994: First full election, interim constitution in force.

– Elected parliament formed Constitutional Assembly to write final constitution.

• 1997: Final constitution in force.

Other examples of Pacted Regimes

• Venezuela (1958)–Pact of Punto Fijo

• Colombia (1957)

• Spain (1975)

• Poland (1989)