Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike

Dr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.com

Ike’s non-U.S. impacts• Cuba suffered $3-$4 billion in damage, and 2.6 million people were forced to evacuate (23% of the population)

• The Southeast Bahamas had $50-$200 million in damage. Additional heavy damage occurred on the nearby Turks and Caicos Islands.

• Haiti suffered the most from Ike, with 74 deaths and ruinous flooding.

Key West, saved again by the Hurricane Grotto!

A Reason to Worry: High Oceanic Heat Content

Ike’s Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) was higher than Katrina when it was at Category 5 strength

Total destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula

Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time1. Katrina 2005 3 $81,000,000,0002. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,0003. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,0004. Ike (TX/LA/MS)* 2008 2 $19,300,000,0005. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $14,000,000,0006. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $13,000,000,0007. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $10,000,000,0008. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,6759. Frances (FL) 2004 2 $8,860,000,00010. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $8,602,500,000

*Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

Largest U.S. Power Outages from a Weather Disaster

1. “Superstorm” Blizzard 1993 10,000,000 people

2. Hurricane Ike 2008 7,500,000

3. Hurricane Isabel 2003 6,000,000

4. Hurricane Frances 2004 6,000,000

Ike’s Death Toll: 30th deadliest U.S. Hurricane

• 20 direct U.S. deaths

•34 missing from Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula

•64 indirect deaths in Texas

•28 deaths in TN, OH, IN, IL, MO, KY, MI, PA

•146 total dead and missing in the U.S.

What good came of Ike?

•Exposed inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, prompting NHC to propose issuing special Storm Surge Warnings

•Portlight.org disaster relief charity born

Ike helped launched the Portlight.org disaster relief charity

A Preview of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Dr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.com

Seasonal Predictions, December 2008:Dr. Bill Gray: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3.5 intense hurricanes Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes

African Dust Forecast

Since 1995—number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes

4 El Nino years 1997 8,3,1 2002 12,4,2 2004 15,9,6

2006 10,5,2

5 La Nina years 1995 19,11,51998 14,10,31999 12,8,52000 15,8,32007 15,6,2

5 Neutral years 1996 13,9,62001 15,9,42003 16,7,32005 28,15,72008 16,8,5

The wunderground.com March 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

• 14 named storms• 7 hurricanes• 3 intense hurricanes

May the steering currents be your friend!

Costliest U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Rank Disaster Year Deaths Damage (2007 $$)1. Hurricane Katrina 2005 1833 $84,645,000,0002. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1988 7,500 $71,200,000,0003. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1980 10,000 $55,400,000,0004. Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA 1992 26 $48,058,000,0005. Midwest Flooding 1993 48 $30,200,000,0006. Hurricane Wilma, FL 2005 22 $21,527,000,0007. Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS 2008 54 $18,000,000,0008. Hurricane Charley, FL 2004 15 $16,322,000,0009. Midwest Floods 2008 24 $15,000,000,00010. Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL 2004 26 $13,000,000,000

Borden and Cutter, 2008

Is the weather getting more extreme?

The National Climatic Data Center’s Climate Extremes Index:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html

1. Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal.

2. Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal.

3. Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus.

4. Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

5. Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.

Is the weather getting more extreme?•Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s.

•These increases were most pronounced in summer.

•No trends were noted in winter.

•5 of the 15 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1997.

Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?

•Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005).

•Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C.

•Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%.

•Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%.

•Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.

But Sea Level Rise may be Underestimated

•1910-1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year.

•Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year.

•No increases in storm intensity or frequency that •might account for the increasing high water levels.

•Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997)

…Which would lead to increased storm surge damage.

Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?

The Top 10 Most Expensive Weather Disasters of the Next 50 Years

10) Pacific Northwest Extratropical StormProbability: 30%

Damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

9) Galveston/Houston HurricaneProbability: 60%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) New Orleans HurricaneProbability: 70%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

7) Tampa Bay HurricaneProbability: 40%

Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

6) Mississippi/Missouri River FloodProbability: 90%

Waterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 flood

5) New England HurricaneProbability: 40%

Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

4) Midwest DroughtProbability: 90%

Texas Drought, 2006

3) Miami HurricaneProbability: 80%

Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

2) Southwest DroughtProbability: 50%

San Bruno California Fires, June 2008

1) Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control StructureProbability: 30%

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water