top 20 growth suburbs in nsw, australia
TRANSCRIPT
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Top 20 fastest growing
suburbs in NSW
August 2015
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Top 20 growth suburbs in New South Wales2011 - 2021
Using .id’s Small Area Forecasts (SAFi) we take a look at top
twenty population growth areas in New South Wales.
We also offer some insights into the factors driving growth, and
share our thoughts on how businesses and planning authorities
can best use the detailed information contained in the SAFi
population forecasts.
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Areas with
the largest
growth are
also
growing
the fastest
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Areas with
the largest
growth are
also
growing
the fastest
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Areas with
the largest
growth are
also
growing
the fastest
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It’s a two horse race
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Riverstone – Marsden Park in North West Sydney
It’s a two horse race
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Cobbity – Leppington in South West Sydney
Riverstone – Marsden Park in North West Sydney
It’s a two horse race
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Why are these areas forecast to grow?
Not all growth is the same, and at .id, we are always interested in the ‘why’
not just the ‘what’.
In simple terms, demographic changes such as births, deaths and
migration determine the size of the population. Housing development
influences where that changing population will be accommodated.
Therefore it is a key driver of local area population growth.
For the purposes of this analysis we have identified three types of housing
development that drive change:
• Greenfield development – where land is repurposed, usually from agricultural
uses, and is given over to housing;
• Industrial redevelopment – where areas of a city are converted from other
uses to residential, such as an old industrial site, or a golf-course. Also known
as brownfield; and
• Urban intensification – where medium and high-density units and apartments
start to replace detached housing.
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Main drivers of growth
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Strongest population growth is occurring in areas where large greenfield developments are currently underway
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Greenfield development
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Urban intensification
Urban intensification is an important
contributor to increases in dwellings
and the associated population growth.
Population growth in Waterloo –
Beaconsfield is driven by inner-city
medium and high-density
developments, while growth in
Homebush Bay – Silverwater area will
come from apartment construction at
Sydney Olympic Park.
With a number of high-density
developments in train the Sydney –
Haymarket – The Rocks area is
expected to add almost 10,000 people
to its population in the decade to 2021.
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Not all growth is the same
At .id we specialise in helping business and government prepare for the future. In this
sense, it is important to know where growth will occur, not just what growth itself will
be.
For example, if you were to purchase a Jim’s Mowing franchise in a fast growing area
in inner city Sydney based on the forecast increase in population, you would be
severely disappointed. Different development drivers create different opportunities for
different businesses.
It is also important to know what the makeup of the population will be. An area might
be growing fast, but who is moving there?
• Is it families?
• Young or mature families?
• Empty-nesters?
SAFi forecasts include a breakdown of the population by age and sex, with data
available on household size and type, to further understand the changing dynamics
within communities and help you pinpoint your target market.
For example, The Catholic Education Office use them to plan when and where to
open schools. The YMCA use test the viability of different health centres, and Japara
Healthcare use them to plan their investment in aged care facilities.
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If your business could benefit from a nuanced, high-
definition understanding of how your market is going
to grow, learn more about SAFi here
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