tom rye, professor of transport policy and mobility management transport research institute napier...
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Tom Rye, Professor of Transport Policyand Mobility ManagementTransport Research InstituteNapier UniversityEdinburgh
Transport’s contribution to GHG emissions, and
how to reduce it
Presentation structure
Trends and problems Backcasting Policy options and possible
impacts International comparisons Conclusions
Transport emissions as proportion of total - Scotland
CONTEXT
Source: CHANGING OUR WAYS SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME, Scottish Executive
2006Excludes international air travel
More detail
Source: Scottish Transport Statistics 2007
Summarising…
22.7% of net Scottish emissions from transport 2005 (17.3% 1990)
Transport second largest source of emissions
1990-2003 largest percentage increase in emissions by sector – from transport
If current trends in transport use continue CO2 emissions in the UK will increase by 60% in the next 20 years (excl. int. air)
UK transport CO2 emissions 1952-2004 (source: DTI)
Addressing the problem
Transport energy use is a product of: Population Vehicle technology Carbon intensity of fuel Mode choice Trip frequency Trip length Vehicle occupancyLimit discussion here to surface transport
Back-casting – emissions index - UK
Trip
length
Motorised trips per person
Emissions per v km
Carbon intensity Mode share Total
Current situation 1 1 1 1 1 1 2025 Business as usual 1.5 1.2 0.9 1 1 1.62 Engine efficiency 1.5 1.2 0.29 1 1 0.52 Engine efficiency and new fuels 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.72 1 0.52 Mode specific 2005 Car 1 1 1 1 0.88 0.88 Bus 1 1 1 1 0.1 0.10 Rail 1 1 1 1 0.02 0.02 1.00 2025 - mode shift only Car 1.5 1.2 0.97 1 0.65 1.13 Bus 1.5 1.2 0.44 1 0.25 0.20 Rail 1.5 1.2 0.53 1 0.1 0.10 1.43 2025 - combination Car 1.3 1.1 0.55 0.8 0.65 0.41 Bus 1.3 1.1 0.25 0.8 0.25 0.07 Rail 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.03 0.51
Source: based on Potter (2008)
So we need to:
Reduce motorised trips Stabilise trip length Change vehicle technologies and
carbon intensity of fuels Achieve mode shift
Unlikely that any one strategy alone could achieve GHG reduction targets
Current Scottish transport policy trends National level – approx equal spend by TS
on PT and roads Significant road and rail investments Bus use falling/stable outside Lothian and
SPT areas Real bus fares stable since about 2000 SOA/NPF – less emphasis on transport at
LA level; and almost no ring-fenced funds for tspt
Land use planning – NPF, SPP17
Transport Spending
Source: Transport Scotland Corporate Plan 2008 In addition SG spends £250m/yr mainly on air, ferry and BSOG
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Rail Services in Scotland 689.2 35% 672.9 30% 667.1 29% Concessionary Fares 187.5 9% 189.5 9% 191.5 8% Major Public Transport Projects
157.7 8% 262.9 12% 230.7 10%
Motorways and Trunk Roads
383.1 19% 468.2 21% 532.3 23%
Roads Cost of Capital Charge
546.5 28% 595.5 27% 649.1 28%
Other 23.2 1% 24.2 1% 26.2 1% Total 1,987.20 2,213.20 2,296.90
NTS and reducing emissions “Reduce emissions” – one of three key
objectives of National Transport Strategy Methods proposed:
Travel plan coordinators, smarter choices – influencing travel behaviour through mkting/awareness - £11m over three years
Renewable Fuels Obligation Reviewing speed enforcement on motorways Bus strategy, to improve service quality
If transport’s GHG emissions are to fall significantly, we need… Shift to smaller vehicles (NL, Italy) –
taxation? Incentives to use 2nd generation biofuels Mode shift:
Cheaper, more frequent PT esp within towns – with cheap integrated ticketing
PT faster than car Safe infrastructure for walking and cycling –
taking space from parked and moving cars Smarter choices
Trip reduction, trip shortening: Land use encouraging slow modes, short
distances Pricing/parking restraint
Mode shares compared
% trips by mode, Scotland
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1997 2000 2003 2005 2006 Edinburgh2004
Source: Transport Statistics Scotland 2007 and Edinburgh LTS 2007
Other
PT inc taxi
Car pass or driver
Bike
Walk
Specific example: Freiburg
550,000 people Public transport has priority Cars and parking restricted; P+R Tram network mostly new since 80s Integrate planning and transport March 84 - Enviro Season ticket (all
modes) Prices and subsidy reduced - 70%
farebox
Freiburg results
Freiburg tram…
Conclusion
CO2 emissions rising faster from transport sector than any other
Current Scottish transport policy – very mixed picture on emissions reduction – low emphasis on zero-emissions modes
Using technology to reduce consumption by engines or further develop alternatively powered vehicles is part of the solution
BUT Changing peoples travel behaviour to
sustainable modes needs to occur also