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Changing demographics in semi-rural and rural areas in Tier II & III cities, with high disposable incomes aided by rising Minimum Support Prices of agriculture

produce has developed a strong market For regional print media. Advertisers have been more focused on Tier II & III cities because of higher economic growth, under penetration of products and services and lower penetration of digital media due to lack of infrastructure and language barrier. Under penetration of readership habits – 44% of literate population does not read any publication - may result in increase in circulation and offset any increase in digital media penetration. This structural change alongwith expected increase in ad spend with upcoming elections in six important states (Delhi, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Maharashtra) and general elections, augurs well for print media industry in general and regional print media industry in particular. JPL as consolidated entity, has presence in 15 States including MP, UP, Punjab and Delhi among others. Many of these States have several fast growing cities with high consumption potential and hence are actively targeted by companies. Dainik Jagran is country’s largest read newspaper as per Indian Readership Survey (IRS) - 2012 Quarter 4. JPL has increased its revenues 3.2x in the last seven years and operating profit and net profit by 4.1 x and 7.8 x respectively. Although profits growth has not reported secular trend, ROE has been consistently more than 25% in last four years based on adjusted net profits. In last three years, Company has acquired two loss making publications viz, Midday Infomedia and holding company of Naidunia Media Ltd. Although Company has benefited by way of tax savings because of losses in these subsidiaries, they have been incurring operational losses and turnaround is some quarters away.

u Jagran publications cover ~ 70% of the population in

Hindi belt. It is the market leader in UP with readership of 89

lacs and 40% readership market share. In other states like Bihar,

Uttarkhand, and Haryana it is one of the top two newspaper

publishers and third largest in Jharkhand.

u In most of the markets Dainik Jagran enjoys either No. 1

or 2 positions. This helps in retaining market share despite rise

in competition.

u With economy growing at less than 5% in FY ’13, media

companies were hardest hit in the past decade, as it thrives on

the growing economy. JPL has done well in difficult times and

has controlled its cost while improving realization per copy of

newspaper. Company continues to outperform the print industry

by registering higher revenue growth.

u JPL has strong balance sheet and total debt is still ` 475

Crs. even after making two acquisitions in the last three years.

Company enjoys strong operational cash flows and total debt to

equity is still lower at 0.55 x as on March ’13.

u With increased ad spend, the earnings growth will jump

in FY ’14 & FY ’15, subject to newsprint prices remaining stable.

Although Company buys majority of its newsprint requirements

from domestic markets, Indian prices follow international

trends. Hence, weak rupee should result in more than 3-4% rise

in newsprint prices this year, as earlier expected by management,

due to fresh bout of weakness in the Rupee.

Highlights

PE Band

Jagran Prakashan Ltd. is also available on www.balance-equity.co.in

Jagran Prakashan Ltd.

Shareholding Pattern as on June ‘13 (%)

BSE SENSEX/S & P NIFTY 19294/5817

Sector Printing & Publishing

Market Cap./Free Float ( ` Crs.) 2783/1068

Market Price as on 10/7/13 ` (FV Rs. 2/-) 83.85

52 Week High/Low Rs. 117.5/80.3

Equity Shares Outstanding (in Crs.) 33.19

P/E Ratio (Times) (for March '13) 11.0

P/B (Times) (for March '13) 2.97

EV/EBITDA (Times) (for March '13) 11.4

ROE (%) (March '13) 26.8

62%13%

12%

13%

Promoter

FII

DII

Others



u Exit circulation for Dainik Jagran for FY ’13 was 36 lacs, that for Naidunia 5.2 lacs and for Midday (estimated) was 4.2 lacs.

Company expects to increase Naidunia’s circulation significantly during current year to achieve its goal of becoming strong No. 2 in

MPCG (Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh) market by FY ’15.

u Company expects 10% ad revenue growth for FY ’14 and claims that it does not include election business which will be over

and above this growth.

u Stock has been trading between 13-23x historical earnings in the last three years. After March ’13, it has come down by 10% to

trade at 11 x historical earnings, due to general market volatility and provision of big losses in newly acquired subsidiaries. We feel that

with ad revenues prospects looking up and expectation of reduction of losses in subsidiaries, share price should appreciate, keeping

with the quarterly earnings reported in the coming quarters.

Dainik Jagran group is the publisher of 12 brands of newspapers and magazines and have presence in 15 states and has more

than 100 editions and 250 plus sub-editions in five different languages. Apart from publishing company it is also involved in

outdoor advertising, promotional marketing, event management, on ground activities and digital business. Out of 12 publications,

8 are daily newspapers titles, covering 4 Indian languages and English. With a total readership of 6.8 Crs. for all its publication

titles, the group is the largest print media group of the country. Dainik Jagran continues to be the No. 1 newspaper in the most

affluent segment of the readers in the country – total readership of 5.65 Crs. - across all languages including English (Source IRS

2012 - Qtr. 4). Leadership position in catering to premier audience increases JPL’s ability to charge premium for ad space. Other main

publications are Mid-Day and Nai Duniya, both of which were acquired in last 3 years.

Dainik Jagran has consistently topped the charts of readership among the Hindi language newspapers. According to IRS

Q3 survey (Dec. ’12 qtr.) the newspaper had readership of 1.65 Crs., highest in the category and about 20 to 40 lacs higher than the

second highest competitor. IRS survey has reported that Dainik Jagran has improved its position, and for the first time, has become

number two newspaper of Haryana and number three newspaper of New Delhi, while strengthening its position in all of its core

markets. Drop in readership in Punjab was for everyone, and similarly in spite of drop in readership in Jharkhand, Dainik Jagran

continues to be number three newspaper of the state after Prabhat Khabar and Hindustan. Jharkhand continues to be suffering

politically, and therefore, currently Company does not have any plan to invest further there.

Background


Jagran Prakashan Ltd is also available on www.balance-equity.co.in

Apart from Dainik Jagran, JPL publishes other 3 newspapers – I-Next, first ever bilingual newspaper published in 12 editions

from 5 states. City Plus is a weekly infotainment English newspaper published in 43 editions from 4 states and Punjabi Jagran is

published in 2 editions from Punjab. Company also publishes two magazines – Sakhi, a monthly targeted at Women and Josh for

career oriented youth.

Among other divisions of the Company, Jagran Engage provides ‘Out of Home’ advertising services with a pan India footprint.

Jagran Solutions carries on activities like promotional marketing, event management and on ground activities throughout the

country. While outdoor advertising industry has also been hit by adverse macro economic conditions, Jagran Engage has reported

31% growth in revenues in FY ’13 with improved occupancy of existing media and addition of new properties. Both these businesses

are expected to turnaround in FY ’14.

Company is also present in digital business through its news portals - Jagran.com, Jagranjosh.com Midday.com and

Jagranpost.com - which enjoy leadership positions. It also has gaming portal Jeetle.com and Jagran on mobile, m.jagran.com. J9 is

the value added services division of JPL which is currently working in the field of mobile value added services & home shopping in

an active manner. It has just launched an Online Digital Classified platform (khojle.in). J9Mobile, which is the mobile vertical of J9

offers Text, Voice & WAP services to users. J9Mobile also offers Enterprise & Brand solutions via 57272 platform. Digital advertising

revenues grew by 120% in FY ’13 on a small base.

Acquisitions and new launches

Jagran has been consolidating its position in the last three years. In May 2010, it acquired 96.4% stake in the print business of Mid-

Day Multimedia Ltd. (MML). MML is publisher of dailies - Midday English from Mumbai and Pune, Midday Gujarati from Mumbai

(afternoon dailies focusing on metro markets especially Mumbai) and The Inquilab (Urdu daily) from Mumbai and the states of

Maharashtra, UP, Delhi and Bihar. In addition to its equity holding, the Company has invested Rs.25 Crs. in MML by subscribing

to the Cumulative Non-convertible Redeemable Preference Shares of the aggregate face value of Rs.10 Crs. to retire high interest

bearing debts and to strengthen MML’s capital base and also extended an unsecured interest bearing long term loan of Rs.7.65 Crs.

These Preference Shares carry a coupon rate of 22.5% and are redeemable after 12 years or such other period as may be mutually

decided between the Company and MML.


Jagran Prakashan Ltd is also available on www.balance-equity.co.in

Midday Media operating losses amounted to about ` 5 Crs. and net level losses about ` 15 Crs. during FY ’13, which were

lower than budgeted as per management. This became possible as a result of expansion of circulation and expansion of Inquilab

in North. During the year the Company took control of advertising marketing from October ’12, and complete control of the

management from March ‘13. Ad revenue growth was flat in FY ’13, however, Mumbai market grew by 7%. The Midday Gujarati

continues to strengthen its position as number two Gujarati newspaper of Mumbai, and the Inquilab continues to be number one

Urdu daily of the country. Management expects revenue growth for Midday in FY ’14 to be in the range of 18-20% and it is expected

to contribute to operating profit to the extent of ` 10-11 Crs. It is expected to breakeven in Q4 of FY ’14.

Further, continuing its strategy to pursue the inorganic growth through acquisitions and partnerships, the Company acquired

100% stake in Suvi Info Management (Indore) Pvt. Ltd. (SUVI) on 31/3/12 and also subscribed to the issue of fresh equity shares

for an aggregate amount of ` 20 Crs. SUVI is the holding company of Naidunia Media Private Limited (“Naidunia”), a publisher of

ninth largest Hindi daily ‘Naidunia’ with seven editions from Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Jabalpur, Raipur & Bilaspur. Naidunia alongwith

Navdunia published from Bhopal is the second largest newspaper of MPCG, with readership base of over 20 lacs and circulation of

nearly 4 lacs. Through this acquisition, the Company has marked its entry into the states of MPCG. In order to take Naidunia to its

past glory and make it a strong No.2 player in MPCG, investment needs to be made for three years before it reverts to profit making.

Proposed investment as per management is not significant and will be primarily met out of tax savings as a result of acquisition and

sale of certain valuable surplus assets of Naidunia.

After take over, Company closed New Delhi edition of Naidunia and rationalized employee strength in MPCG. It also

focused on increasing circulation in MPCG, which was up 30%. Overall rise in advertising revenue at Naidunia was 12% in FY

’13 and helped reduce losses by 40-45% to ` 11 Crs. in FY ’13 inspite of increase in circulation by 30% . The strong growth in

the advertising revenue was because of the 30% rise in its national advertising revenue which contributes about 27-28% in total

revenue. Local advertising in Naidunia is more than 62%. Naidunia will start contributing to operating profits in Q4 of FY ’14

and break even in Q4 of FY ’15. Company expects ad revenue to go up by 25% in FY ’14 driven by national advertising. The strong

growth in the advertising revenue was because of the 30% rise in its national advertising revenue which contributes about 27-28%

in total revenue. This reflects the leverage played out for Naidunia from Jagran’s national advertisement network. Jagran would

focus on increasing circulation in FY ‘ 14 also , as it aspires to make Naidunia a strong No. 2 in MPCH by FY ‘15. At present, it holds

a 13% share – 9% lower than the second largest.

In FY ’12 Company also launched Punjabi Jagran in Punjab, expanded City Plus in Mumbai and The Inquilab in Northern

India. Punjabi Jagran continues to be under expansion phase and incurred losses of nearly ` 10 Crs. as expected. Punjabi Jagran

had 90% growth in advertising in FY ’13 although on a small base. It has gained acceptance of both readers and advertisers which



Print Industry

The Indian newspaper industry in general and Hindi newspaper industry in particular has become intensely competitive. In

all its markets JPL faces competition from other newspapers for circulation, readership and advertising. In addition, it faces

competition from other forms of media, such as, television, radio and internet.

Indian print advertising has grown at healthy 11% in last five years from 2007 to 2012, as against degrowth of about 5%

globally. Regional print media is reported to have grown at even higher rate of 14% during this period as against only 6% in English

print media. Growth in regional advertising was aided by growing readership and catch up in ad rates.

Regional Print media enjoys high penetration with its niche positioning and has been less impacted by internet accessibility.

It has been cornering higher portion of total newspaper ad spend from 50% in 2007 to 60% in 2012. This is expected to increase to

70% in 2017. Out of regional print ad spend nearly half is Hindi regional media and other half is other regional languages. With low

capital intensity and high market share the leaders like JPL are poised to derive maximum advantage out of higher share of regional

print media in the ad spend.

As per FICCI- KPMG report 2013, print industry grew at 7.3% y-o-y in calendar year 2012. Advertising revenues for print

industry grew by 7.6% in 2012 as against 10.6% in 2011. However, regional print advertisement pie grew by around 10% in spite of

weak economic conditions. After reaching the bottom in Q2 of FY ’13, ad revenues growth for Hindi Print media has started rising

in the last two quarters. Print media continued to be the preferred choice of advertisers with dominant share of 46% of media

advertising revenue. Based on this, the size of Print media advertising is estimated to be about ` 15,000 Crs.

Hindi and vernacular print markets are growing at faster pace than English on the back of huge population size of around

90% residing in Tier II & III towns. With rising literacy, per capita income and per capita consumption and low print media

penetration as well as continued tide of advertisers wanting to spend in these markets, both Hindi and Vernacular advertisement

revenue grew by 10% y-o-y in 2012 as compared to 11% & 17% respectively in 2011. In 2012, Hindi and Vernacular print market

increased its share of print advertising to 61% from 59% in 2011.

Print industry is expected to grow at CAGR of 8.7% over next 5 years with Hindi and Vernacular markets growing at around

11% CAGR and English growing at 4.8%. Industry expects increase in market share of vernacular newspapers largely due to volume

growth driven by launch of new local editions and gradual improvement in advertisement rates of these markets (Source - FICCI-

KPMG report 2013).



In view of the slow economic growth and rising newsprint prices in India, Print media companies have been cutting corners, in terms of discontinuing loss making editions and cost control.

Difficult economic environment has eased competition in the Hindi reading belt, allowing the players to increase cover prices of their publications. Circulation revenues are therefore expected to increase faster than ad revenues at least in the near future.

Global demand for newsprint has been coming down since year 2000 due to drop in newspaper circulation in developed markets. Hence newsprint prices have been stable in the last 2-3 years. Although regional print media players buy from domestic market,

local prices track international prices. With rupee depreciation, domestic newsprint prices have seen uptrend in last two years, although internationally prices have come down. We expect newsprint prices to remain stable adjusted for rupee depreciation.

Newsprint

Financials

The overall revenue grew by 12.53% in FY ‘13 over the previous year, with advertisement revenues going up by 12.2% and

circulation revenues by 21.3%. The growth in advertisement revenue was attributed mostly to increase in space while yield

per square cm. came down.

In FY ’13, out of total circulation revenue increase, an amount of about ` 15 Crs. was attributed to increase in per copy

realization of Dainik Jagran and i-next. The Company also had a steep growth in digital advertising and outdoor advertising.

Outboard advertising registered a steep growth in top line due to improved occupancy and addition of new properties. In case of

outdoor business, the prices were under pressure and therefore, they could not deliver the expected profit. The event business

had a huge dip in top line, and resulted in loss of nearly ` 15 Crs. The loss in top line was on account of loss of government

revenues due to Company’s decision of discontinuing a particular contract due to non-payment by UP government. Loss was

also on account of provisioning of nearly ` 14 Crs. for this government debt. However, as Company started focusing on corporate

business, it recorded steep growth of nearly 40% to 45% which augurs well for the future and will give a stabilized revenue

stream.



For five competitive quarters starting from October ‘11 till September ‘12, Company has been registering one of the

highest growth in the industry. Only in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of FY ’13 Jagran registered the lower growth. The

reason for third quarter registering lower growth of 7% y-o-y was higher base in the previous year when Company registered a

growth of nearly 15%. In March ’13 quarter, Company had more or less flat revenue as compared to March ’12 due to again higher

base of 12% growth in that quarter, as a result of election impact. If election impact is eliminated, Dainik Jagran has grown by about

5% y-o-y in March ’13 quarter. Overall growth for the year has crossed 10%.

Acquisitions of Midday and Naidunia and launch of Punjabi Jagran resulted in net loss of ̀ 42 Crs. in FY ’13. Company expects

to reduce losses to ` 16-18 Crs. in FY ’14, which will mainly come from Naidunia operations, which is expected to turnaround in Q4

of FY ’15. Due to acquisitions, Company has benefited by way of no taxation in FY ’13 and expects its tax liability to be around 25%

in FY ’14 as against normal 34%. Besides this, JPL is also raising cash by selling surplus assets in Naidunia, resulting in less than

anticipated investments in the acquired entity.

Materials cost comprises of cost of newsprint and art paper (used for magazine) and ink. The newsprint alone constitutes about

90% of the total material consumed. Newsprint accounted for 32% of total revenues in FY ’13. We expect newsprint prices to

increase much more than 3-4% (as expected by management) in FY ’14 as a result of heavy rupee depreciation.

Management expects to incur capex of ` 60-70 Crs. in FY ’14, out of which expenditure for Naidunia will be about ` 23 Crs., net of

surplus asset sale. JPL has invested over ` 200 Crs. in Naidunia in FY ’13.

Revenue Break UpYear Ended (Rs. Crs.) FY '11 FY '12 FY '13

Advertisement Revenue 853.99 938.46 1052.55

Newspaper Subscription 236.6 263.11 319.16

Magazines & Books 1.84 2.24

Outdoor Activities 56.52 60.37 153.79 *

Event Management 37.43 52.57

Digital Services 6.69 8.24

Job Work & Scrap Sale 28.02 30.67

1221.09 1355.66 1525.5

*Revenues other than Advt. & Subscription



Standalone Quarterly Financial Results

Year Ended (` Crs.) June '12 Sept '12 Dec '12 March '13Revenue 317.52 322.1 348.9 342.85Inc./Dec. in Inv. Of Fin. Goods 0.01 -0.11 0.05 0.08Materials Consumed 113.45 110.98 117.84 123.89Employee Cost 41.02 44.33 43.17 49.15Direct Expenses of Outdoor, Event & Digital Business

20.72 22.84 25.94 24.45

Stores & Spares 8.18 7.67 8.13 9.14Other Expenses 55.32 58.22 62.67 82.11Total Expenses 238.7 243.93 257.8 288.82EBITDA 78.82 78.17 91.1 54.03EBITDA Margin (%) 24.8 24.3 26.1 15.8Depreciation 14.77 16.12 16.57 18.55Interest 7.6 5.9 7.73 6.54Taxation 0 0 0 -0.43

Other Income -0.72 13.28 -0.94 10.86

Non Recurring Items 13.78 -7.08 7.02 16.58Net Profit 69.51 62.35 72.88 56.81Net Profit Margin (%) 21.9 19.4 20.9 16.6Equity Capital (FV ` 2/-) 63.25 63.25 63.25 66.38Equity Shares 31.625 31.625 31.625 33.19EPS (`) 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.71Note:1) Print business of Naidunia Media (Naidunia) transferred to the Company w.e.f. 1st April ‘12. 1.56 Crs. shares of the Company were issued for consideration. Naidunia is 100% step down subsidiary as on March ‘13.



u 60% of Company’s advertisement revenues are drawn from local advertisers, which is to an extent resilient to the slow

growth in the economy. Renewed thrust in semi-urban and rural areas by companies in banking, auto, consumer durables, telecom and

education sectors, suggest continued buoyancy in advertising revenues for the Company.

u Ad spend which grew by only 4-7% in FY ’13, is expected to recover in next two years. Increased ad spend by advertisers in

2H of FY ’14, rise in ad rates and scale up in National advertising both in Naidunia and Midday will drive revenues and profit growth

in FY ’14.

u With Naidunia JPL has gained foothold in MP & Chhattisgarh markets. Company has been able to reduce losses in one year and

has started second phase of circulation expansion.

u As against expected growth of 6-7% in ad revenue for the industry in FY ’13, JPL has recorded 12.1% growth, partly due to

contribution from Naidunia, steep increase in local revenues from Citiplus, I-next & Punjabi Jagran and 8% increase in space for Dainik

Jagran. Company has taken increase in ad rates in double digits in FY ’13, which is being gradually accepted by advertisers.

u In FY ’14 Company expects to grow its ad revenues by 10-11%, focusing on rate increase rather than space growth like FY ’13.

It expects 4% growth in circulation of Dainik Jagran, 2-3% for Midday publications and significant growth for Naidunia.

Comments

Concerns

u Company relies substantially on advertising customers for revenue. It derives nearly 75% of total revenues of publication

business from advertisement revenues as against average 67% for print media industry.

u Newsprint forms major raw material for the business and represents significant portion of expenses. For FY ’13, newsprint

cost represented about 32% of total revenues. Newsprint prices track international prices, although Company buys its majority

requirements from domestic markets. Rupee weakness is expected to increase newsprint prices substantially. Company has been able

to control newsprint cost in the past by reduced pagination and change in newsprint mix.



Consolidated Annual Financial ResultsYear Ended ( ` Crs.) FY '10 FY '11 FY '12 FY '13Revenue 941.89 1221.09 1355.66 1525.53Inc./Dec. in Inv. Of Fin. Goods 0.03 0.08 -0.04 0.02Materials Consumed 273.56 358.9 461.3 543.7Employee Cost 121.22 172.66 194.27 227.43Direct Expenses of Outdoor, Event & Digital Business

60.84 74.73 91.1 93.95

Stores & Spares 22.32 27.35 31 38.75Other Expenses 181.64 230.86 261.18 326.46Total Expenses 659.61 864.58 1038.81 1230.31EBITDA 282.28 356.51 316.85 295.22EBITDA Margin (%) 30.0 29.2 23.4 19.4Depreciation 50.75 65.46 70.94 125.53Interest 6.57 9.07 15.78 30.73Taxation 83.32 97.57 77.27 0.45

Other Income 34.25 25.88 25.47 119.02

Adj for share of Ass. & MI 0 -0.21 -0.01 0.38Non Recurring Items 7.28 2.05 12.92 -6.74Net Profit 183.17 212.13 191.24 251.17Net Profit Margin (%) 19.4 17.4 14.1 16.5Equity Capital (FV ` 2/-) 60.23 63.25 63.25 66.38Equity Shares 30.115 31.625 31.625 33.19Reserves 552.26 638.97 688.64 869.13EPS (`) 6.1 6.7 6.0 7.6Book Value (`) 20.3 22.2 23.8 28.2ROE (%) 29.9 30.2 25.4 26.8Note:1) March ‘10 results are for Standalone operations.2) Print business of Midday Multimedia (MML)was transferred to the Company w.e.f. 1st April ‘10. 1.51 Crs. shares of the Company were issued for consideration. MML is 96.4% subsidiary as on March ‘133) Print business of Naidunia Media (Naidunia) transferred to the Company w.e.f. 1st April ‘12. 1.56 Crs. Shares of the Company were issued for consideration. Naidunia is 100% step down subsidiary as on March ‘13.

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