INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL EDITION THE KIEV TIMES

www.thekievtimes.ua

NOVEMBER 2013

UKRAINE – EUROPE: ACCESSION OR RETURN?

Millions of Ukrainians are waiting for the President to make a monumental decision. It will be a historical choice, the same one for Donetsk and Lviv, Chernigov and Kherson, Uzhgorod and Zaporozhe. This choice will have to be made by politicians and officials, miners

and foresters, scientists and students, sportsmen and artists. Moreover, it must not be vigorously opposed, or made just for the sake of appearance, and definitely not in the familiar mode «It’s not my funeral».The country is already changing because we understand it is high

time to change. But how? How do we find compromise and not get lost looking for a phantom El dorado? First of all, stereotypes must be broken. All of them. Or the maximum possible amount. How many of you have read the actual text of the Association

Agreement with the EU? Is it worth believing everything politicians of different ranks claim? What is the Russian embrace like: fraternal or sinister?«They always say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself»; minds crave stability, parents think

that happiness awaits their children. The country lives with the expectation of a promising future. Ukrainian history is bound tightly with the history of Europe. We have always been Europe. The current situation is more urgent, in choosing the future

of our economy, than any other that has come before.This issue of The Kiev Times will attempt to sort out where we are moving as a country. We believe that the right way will be chosen. So where are we heading? We are moving to the future.

THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 2 SPECIAL ISSUE

Ruslan Skobley, Warsaw: There are definite laws on

the labor and educational market, in the legal sphere, for protec-tion of private and intellectual property. Perhaps it will be easy for us to adopt but not so much with planting it into Ukrainian ground.

The West will open its market for the national commodities; the competition will rise inside the country leading to a push for a small- and midscale business.

European integration is an

impulse for the country and its citizens. A chance to become better, get more possibilities for education, work and business. Based on the example of Poland it can be stated 100% sure that it used its chance to the fullest.

European standard is not a stereotype or a cliché. It is a reflection of national wellbeing. Standard on the road, in a court room and in a shop. Believe the one who has been living in Poland for the last 5 years.

Ekaterina Grinevich, Kherson:I honestly hope that Ukraine will

get out of this bugging crisis in the near future. Pro-western course of the country? I would like to believe that European companies will be investing more into the development of Ukraine.

I sincerely hope that there will be more work places and that our employers will finally hire young specialists, develop their skills and give them opportunity to go up the career ladder.

So long as the situation with work places in our city is very tense, this is my main unsolved issued for now.

Olexandr Brygynets, people’s deputy of Ukraine:

Real integration is important to us, not just formally signing the papers. I am certain that Viktor Yanukovych can do it. However, I do not believe that he can do something for the real integration.

The thing is not the desire, it is

just that he has not set that task! The Association is a formality of the government to help them get loans. I would really appreciate it if Ukrainian government was able not only to sign the agree-ments but also deal with real matters.

Vasiliy Shaposhnikov, Kremenchug:

Association membership of Ukraine in the European Union, unconditionally, has both pros and cons. As a man of European culture sharing the values of people in this hemisphere I support the global and civilizational choice of my country. I want to live in a state where the highest value is its citizens and people are more afraid of criminals than police officers; people’s deputy and a plant worker are equal before the law not just de-jure but also de-facto.

On the other hand, on the local level I, as a public figure, see very negative perspectives for Ukrainian economy. The Agreement is not signed yet but Kremenchug is already wit-nessing a negative effect. Russia is cutting off the oxygen to local firms restricting

the export of industrial production. This is a very painful question for us because 80% of total Kremenchug export of industrial products belongs to our northern neighbor.

The biggest employer in the city, Kremenchug wagon car plant, has recently announced the planned dismissal of 500 employees. Some other enterprises such as steel-works have al-ready practically collapsed. The situation keeps getting worse.

What does the fall of industrial production mean for us, dwellers of the industrial city? The worst comes to worst it means going back to the 90s. Dark streets, high crime rate, inse-curity about tomorrow and possibility to earn for a living… We have been through this and we do not want to do it again.

All these factors lead me to conclude that as thousands of Kremenchug residents I wel-come European vector of Ukraine’s development theoretically. But practically it is not quite soothing to go there on empty stomach and with empty pockets.

Ivan Sidun, Uzhgorod: I would like to single out the key

word «potential». The West will allow Ukraine open its po-tential which is surely big.

Let us imagine you got a dog that cannot do anything. But the dog has everything to learn new skills. Until it is too late. We all realize that Ukraine has an undiscovered

potential (in particular, economic) that needs to be realized. Again, the biggest role is played by the temporal factor. However, how much is our country ready for large-scale transformations, to my mind, remains a mystery.

Vasiliy Gorbal, London: In my opinion, the signing of

the Association Agreement with the EU does not mean Euro-pean integration. I think that many politicians have not dug deep enough into the issue yet and they believe that once the agreement is signed we will immediately become Europe.

We need to estimate all the risks we can face and keep in mind things important for the social point of view: culture and history.

Anna Levina, Kiev:Honestly speaking, European

integration and its rhetoric get under the skin! How much longer can we be choosing? If I have picked out the dress, approached the cash desk and want to pay for it, will I start messing about with the shop assistant or go look for a

better dress in another shop? I have been to Europe many

times and I surely want European standards to come to our country. However, I am more worried about mentality rather than import and export. I would Ukraine to have European mentality so that it is possible to ne hired not through the buddy system but owing to professionalism. And that the salary is not only enough to buy food and some clothes but also travel somewhere abroad.

…You asked me a question and all I keep thinking about is: «Is anyone going to hear an average Ukrainian in this country?»

Vadim Kolesnechenko, people’s deputy of Ukraine:

22 years of moving in a vicious circle should probably have taught Ukrainians that nothing is free; you have to pay for everything. We will get what we invest.

One should not wait for manna from the heaven from moving westwards. This is just a set of tools and arguments for us to start modernize the economy, society and most importantly ourselves.

For example, if the citizen of Ukraine wakes up tomorrow and thinks how to change himself, I am sure, we can move any way we want. We will be able not only to proclaim sovereignty of the country but also reach this sovereignty along with independence and general recognition of the country.

NOT A WORD ABOUT YULIA TIMOSHENKO

In anticipation of the Vilnius summit reporters of The Kiev Times took on board the vox populi technology asking random people and people’s deputies one and the same question: «What would you like to tell the readers of our newspaper in the context of the European integration? But – not a word about Yulia Timoshenko! Everything is already said…»

By Rostislav Bunyak

On April 7, 2013, Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych,

by Decree №197/2013, pardoned the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Yuri Lutsenko.

Lutsenko had been serving his 4-year sentence in the Mena colony №91, which was imposed by the Pechersk District Court of Kiev.

Press services of the General Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine, the Presidential Administration of Ukraine and the human rights spokesman of the Verkhovna Rada affirmed that Lutsenko hadn’t personally addressed the President of Ukraine with a petition for pardon.

An official petition was filed by ombudsman Valeria Lutkovska and an unspecified national of another country.

The subject of presidential pardons in our country is extremely knotty for many people. Few people actually know that according to current Ukrainian legislation, the pardoning procedure, including that of Lutsenko, cannot be legally implemented without a petition from the convicted person.

It is a paradox, but in Ukraine not only can you be imprisoned against your will, you can also be freed.

In an attempt to preserve some semblance of justice, several Ukrainian citizens filed a lawsuit to invalidate the President’s decree pardoning Lutsenko. Volodymyr Olentsevych, known for his

controversial appeals to the court in the past, was among them.

Naturally, on the eve of the Vilnius summit the court is not in a

hurry to examine these lawsuits.Just as a reminder, clemency

eligibility and pardoning procedures are regulated by the Constitu-tion of Ukraine. There are two laws to consult: «Provisions of pardoning procedures» confirmed by the Decree of the President of Ukraine № 902/2010 of 16.09.2010 and «Submission order of a pardon application to the President and the approved clemency application enforcement» con-firmed by the Decree of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine №1439/5 of 28.09.2012.

To be pardoned, convicted criminals have to personally file a petition to the President of Ukraine.

Yuri Lutsenko has never filed such a petition to the President.

Based on the above-mentioned facts, there are some very obvious

questions. Why haven’t the legal povisions regulating presidential pardons been changed?

Why has the pardoning of Yuri Lutsenko become an exception to the law?

Why did the Ombudsman for Human Rights in Ukraine unprecedentedly file a clemency application with no legal power to do so?

Why did the President of Ukraine approve such an illegal

clemency application filed by the Ombudsman?

Of course, these curious questions invite rich and imaginative speculation. Perhaps, Lutsenko’s pardoning is a conscious step made under pressure of the European Union on the eve of the Vilnius summit. Perhaps, the pardoning of the former Minister of Foreign Affairs is the result of negligence of legal services of the head of state and the ombudsman in Ukraine.

Perhaps, «teammates» of Yuri Lutsenko deliberately neglected to adhere to the pardoning procedure and have other plans for the newly released ex-minister.

Perhaps, there is another reason for the special treatment of Yuri Lutsenko and his unique pardon.

However, no reason can be good enough to magically transform Presidential Decree №197/2013 of April 7, 2013, into being compliant with current Ukrainian law.

IS YURII LUTSENKO’S PARDONING LEGAL?

Several months ago the former Minister of Foreign Affairs was unconditionally released from prison. However, there are still debates concerning whether his pardoning was appropriate, or even legal.

By Igor Nikitin, Lawer

In Ukraine not only can you be imprisoned against your will, you can also be freed

The Agreement is not signed yet but Kremenchug is already witnessing

a nega-tive effect

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www.thekievtimes.ua 3SPECIAL ISSUE

Applying the principle «onlookers see more

than players» can help us to understand the process, its history, development and consequences better.

Most important for the Ukrainian population, events leading the country to close relationship with the European Union should be considered as if one is lifted clear from the surface; from a historical gradient. Ukraine is an im-portant object of world politics that should serve its geopolitical and civiliza-tional purpose to help the world community, meaning the West, establish control over Eurasian territories; first and foremost Russia where 40% of world’s mineral resources are found. Liquidation of the USSR solved one important problem, yet the final occupation of Eurasia appeared to be more remote in time than Zbigniew Brzezinski expected. Russia, on the contrary, did not follow the way of self-destruction outlined for Boris Yeltsin by the West. Separation of Ukraine from

the countries of the Customs Union is a crucial task the solution of which allows for the creation of a self-sufficient geopolitical pole – a threat for the West. It is just a partial solution, though. The West shall not follow Eastern traditions and perch on the river bank hoping that the water’s current will bring them the corpse of their enemy. Especially since many river banks are already occupied by the Chinese. «Controlled chaos» in various territories and «multicolor revolutions» elsewhere together with new and changing technologies speed up the process. Sparking conflicts on inter-ethnic grounds is an excellent opportunity to trigger confrontation within Russian, Caucasian, Central Asian peoples, between Orthodox Christians and Muslims (30% in Russian Federation). Some more homicides «at the mundane level» regardless of nationality and religion can move things to the breaking point. Representatives of the aforementioned groups become

tempted to harden positions and fight for their coreligionists or compatriots. Foreign organizers rub their hands over these deaths and the masses that never fully realize democracy or modernity, moved by sincere, righteous rage, yet it sometimes feels as if this entire situation is programmed in advance and artificially directed from outside.

In order to accelerate the placement of resources under the control of the «democratic world community» and support possible domestic conflict in the territory of Russia we can expect the creation of «controlled chaos» territories in adjacent countries. Ukraine suits that purpose well, and much is already done.

Unlike counties of the Middle East and Africa Ukraine is not populated by the Muslims to such extent as to apply a traditional, well-mastered scheme with highly inflammable «Islamists» can be applied by outside groups. Different ideas are required. It is not difficult to pay for an organized

protest; however, some people can make much more money by doing other work than putting up barricades because they have necessary skills and education. Some are moved to action not only for money but by ideas and therefore an appeal to ideology is much more effective. Firstly, it is cheaper for the organizers; secondly, it is «sincere»; thirdly, young unemployed people without education can be widely recruited! «An idea becomes a material force as soon as it has gripped the masses».

Mainstream religious groups in Ukraine are too peaceful to trigger civilian conflict. Therefore, the ideal substitution of religion would be ideology with the extremism. Educational system degradation and imposed havoc that challenges family and social traditions can make themselves felt. Liquidation of the USSR implied the disappearance of youth organizations with their military and patriotic games – «zarnitsi»

(wildfires), pioneer camps, and work and recreation camps. In spite of the absence of ideology young people are still striving for the idea of politics in action. «Until we haven’t won their hearts» the latter are warmly welcomed by scout organizations and fan formations. And «zarnitsi» go on…

Recently the «tip of this iceberg» showed up in the incident at the Lvov stadium during the football match between the national teams of Ukraine and San-Marino. The use of fascist symbolism at this match led to the disqualification of the stadium and our national team. For some time now Ukrainian fascist «variants» sentenced by at the Nurnberg Trials became «heroes of Ukraine» for some people who even today adore them. These people are primarily youngsters and members of hooligan groups of mainly adolescents age (12-17 years of age). 95% of the population does not hold much truck with this Bandera propaganda, yet it is extensively promoted and

covered by Ukrainian TV-programs. Irreconcilability and intolerance of these groups to views different from their own cannot but cause resistance from the rest of the population which so far silently watches organized columns «sieg heiling» as they march. Fights break out with the police and adherents of other ideologies following initiation by pro-fascist youth organizations.

Using youth organizations as a powerful destructive force inside the state is not a new idea. Similar examples are numerous in the post-war period. Under the auspices of western intelligence agencies a number of clandestine military style youth groups were created in Hungary. «Junker Association», «Lux» as well as more «mature» organizations such as «White Partisans», «National Resistance Movement» and others were the actors of the well-known events of 1956 in Hungary. As late as 1956 the security agency disclosed 45 clandestine

organizations and arrested numbers of espionage agents. During the coup in Budapest in 1956 such youth «specialists» as Jacek Kuroń and Karol Modzelewski with the help of MI6 and CIA organized the «Young Rebels’ Union» constituted of adolescents aged 12-15 and successfully used

their experience in 1968 during the «Prague Spring». Later theoretical and practical groundwork was used in the events of the late ‘70s to implement plan «Polonia» aimed at destabilization and coup in Poland.

There are some examples of successful participation of youth organizations in military operations – wars on the territory of the former Yugoslavia immediately come to mind. Serbian voluntary guard «Arkan’s Tigers» was formed by some of «Crvena Zvezda» football club fans who took part in the battle of Vukovar at the end of 1991. The «Tigers» defended the Republic of Serbian Krajina from Croatian army and performed police functions. They also took part in the liberation of Bijeljina and Zvornik fighting against the armies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and restored autonomy of the Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia. The most skillful guerilla fighters (former football fans) later made up SF «Supertigers» who were dismissed in 1996 after the end of the war between Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Taking into consideration constant work of military type summer camps outside Kiev where Bandera formations train, earlier discussed experiences should not be underestimated. Nonetheless, I would not Bandera followers and the «Tigers» next to one another.

The delay in the transfer of the Ukrainian army to the contract base is a great success for Ukraine. Apart from the existing external threats (Romanian territorial claims for the part of Ukrainian territory and actual return of 80% of the questionable territories off the shelf of the island of Zmiinyy to Romania is just the beginning) the contract based army could become a real

threat to the integrity of Ukraine. As judged by economic «achievements» there is no money to provide for contract based army because these soldiers need to be paid and have accommodation. A natural way to save on accommodation is to organize contract service by place of residence. In fact, this policy is

being practiced today. Dominant points of view on how the country should develop, on religion, and political preferences of Galichina and, for example, Donbas, differ significantly. Sometimes they are irreconcilable. Local politicians are actively seeking to play on differences instead searching for the common ground and the unification of our country. The «Arab Spring» shows that a few shots of anonymous snipers are enough to kindle a civil war. Under our conditions the first victims could be, for instance, visiting football fans of, say, «Shakhter» – «Karpaty», or participants of torch-light processions and divisons of «SS-Galichina» in Kiev. Further Yugoslavian or Syrian scenarios may follow. Provided that such regions as Galichina or Donbas get contract-based armies equipped with heavy artillery.

An inevitable decrease of the quality of life in Ukraine as a result of Ukraine’s signing agreements with the EU in November, 2013 has resulted in the inflammation of domestic affairs. Russia will be, of course, blamed for pauperization of Ukraine. By no means will the European Union be held to account. Black Sea Fleet, trade wars, industrial espionage, customs misunderstandings – everything will be picked up and fomented by the mass media.

Apart from this, there are also Crimean problems. There are those in the re-gion who are gaining political importance despite being unregistered organizations, which are literally, criminal groups under the law. Among these, the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People are campaigning for Crimean separation from Ukraine and the establishment of an independent

nation state. The Crimean Tatars have become skilled in combat and tactics, with some volunteering in Syria against the Syrian state. Banned in many countries, Hizb-ut-Tahrir advocates for the creation of a world caliphate which would operate openly in the Crimea.

The combination of domestic

problems in Ukraine and tensions with Russian may very well make Ukraine into a new «flash point» on the world map and lead to the deployment of «peacekeepers» from the «civilized» and «democratic» world. By turning voluntarily into a territory controlled by the West, and betraying its historical allies Ukraine increases its chances of finding itself adrift in dystopian chaos which has as its goal the establishment of a regime of control over natural resources and the extermination of the geopolitical competitors of the West.

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ARABIAN SPRING IN UKRAINE? AUTHORS BEING THE SAME

It is impossible to comprehend the incomprehensible. Focusing on a separate tree we sometimes do not notice the forest. Scrutinizing the sky can make you fall into a ditch. Swords cross and skulls are shattered over arguments about choosing the «vector» of integration and collide against walls erected by the government and opposition: between people and state.

By Alexander Dudchak, Economist

Ukraine facilitates the solution of a more important civilizational task – establishing control over Eurasian territories

Aggravation of feud between Russia and Ukraine can turn the latter into a new “flash point” on the world map

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THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 4 SPECIAL ISSUE

Two years ago within the framework of the project:

«Ukraine: History of the Great Nation» the Shevchenko National Theater of Opera and Ballet was on tour in Lviv where it gave performances of the ballet «The Master of Borisphen» and the opera «Norma». As it turned out, the last time artists of the Kiev Opera Theater were on tour in Lviv was just before 1941… It took the two

cultural capitals of Ukraine and Europe more than 70 years «to start talking». A stupendous display of pseudo-patriotism and pseudo-democracy!

Ukrainians cherish playing games of patriotism. They adore political extremism. They love playing games of «who’s the bigger patriot/democrat».

As The Eastern Partnership Summit approaches the fiery rhetoric of martyrdom among patriots and democrats alike is heating up in my Motherland. Who is THE bigger patriot? The opposition member or the member of the Party of Regions; Lviv folk or Donetsk dwellers, He or She? Everyone wants to cross the river of European integration as in a magic fairytale… With the wave of a wand. Yet history is not a fairytale. I recall the beginning of the 90’s having the same patriotic and democratic games within the Supreme Council of democrats, at Independence Square, and all over Ukraine. Then and now the country was drowning in the same manipulations: the language, attitude to democracy, criticism of the government, love for Europe, and the threat of Russia.

Obviously, I was not one of the democratic patriots back then. I am from the Donbas region of East Ukraine. I spoke mainly Russian. I was a member of the CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet Union) and never took part in Narodny Rukh campaigns. At that time I was assigned to the local chapter no. 239 – God what slurs they hurled at me! All the way down to the cruelest, «traitor of Ukraine».

I was asked: «Why don’t you issue statements in Ukrainian?» I answered: «The time hasn’t come yet. I would be embarrassed of my language, and therefore, of myself. I think in Russian. Speaking on a stage I need to sound persuasive…» Everything fell into place in time. Today I am on friendly terms with Ukrainian. I think this language does not nurse a grievance against me, as it allowed me to compose poems and songs…

Ever since then I have had to go through the government and opposition. I have seen democracy in different lights: in authoritative chambers and interrogator’s offices… Getting ready to be

arrested in 2005, I hastily published «Philosophy of Democracy» written in a flurry after the «Orange Revolution». A few years later «Democracy of Many Faces» appeared, as an analysis of the phenomenon of democracy from the individual’s point of view.

Democracy is multi-faced indeed: controlled, speculative and manipulative but claiming to be invaluable and unconditional.

The leader who plays both sides, winking to the East and then to the West, turns his native language into a mere political football. He abuses his native language. He is weaker and more cowardly than the ones wishing to grow to the level of idioma.

One needs to look ahead so that Ukrainian becomes a native language, Russian does not turn into a foreign one, and English is sought after and is not just some fashionable exotic trend.

The same thing should be said for a government resting upon pseudo-democratic standards. When there is a double-standard, there is a divided government. Government – opposition, us – them, old ones – young ones, Donetsk people – others and so on.

Democracy is not accountable for the failings of a nation; however, the government is. The government protects itself with its instinct for self-preservation while the progress of our society fades into the background. Under such circumstances the ones bestowed with power very quickly become cursed by it. It is only a matter of time… Viktor Yushchenko’s reign is a striking example.

The government today faces a strategic choice and the regular elections at the same time. The choice is global. The elections are presidential. Such a chain of events is witnessed for the first time in our history. It is also the first time that the government and the opposition agree on a path for foreign policy. In this case, their agreement is purely ad hoc.

Meanwhile the rest of the world watches a wild dance: not one performed by Ukrainian pop star Ruslana, but by Ukrainian politicians. So, as long as they are eloquent, passionate, and have a clear motivation, the world will continue to watch.

These politicians could be called patriots yet there is one «but»… One cannot be called a patriot if he has never been one. Neither can one be a fake democrat. The current situation reminds me of the

creation of the Ukrainian National Football Team. Formally it has been here through all the years of independence, but a squad with some real potential was created only this year when there seemed to be no chance of getting to the final round of the World Cup. But…

A wise man once wrote: «…experience is born of errors…» Trial and error; conflicts and diplomatic victories; and successes and

failures direct the world toward unity, a persontoward wholeness, a politician toward balance, and Ukraine toward the future.

We will say to ourselves one day that there are not two Ukraines; no divide between Lviv folk and Donetsk folk; no communists or Bandera admirers; democrats and patriots; globalists and nationalists… There will be no people outliving the tragedies of the past, or confusion and uncertainty of the present… One day there will

be no desire to snub Donbas or cut off a slice of Galicia, imprison or purge political rivals, steal, or neglect their civic duties.

Then life will be changed at the grassroots level, and we will simply have the country of Ukraine where citizens live together happily.

The Eastern Partnership Summit is an achievement and a barrier at the same time. The same can be said for Ukrainian-Russian relations.

These two directions are not simply ways to the West or the East. The choice is a way forward – to the realization of a broader mission, to the Ukrainian dream, to the national dream. We can do it as soon as we stop playing patriots and democrats and become them for real.

P.S.There is one difficult issue

which is tearing Ukrainian society apart: The Ukrainian, European, and American political obsession with liberating the imprisoned Ukrainian maiden in the tower, Yulia Timoshenko – is this the height of national spirit or the depth of its fall? To my mind, regardless of the political situation, Timoshenko deserves to be treated fairly. If a person is sick, he or she should get proper help. Ukraine, being her home, is the obvious choice for such treatment. But for the sake of life, it surely would be even better to go abroad, provided that no one mocks the virtues of our legal processes. Some politicians have become far too absorbed in playing humanistic games, and are fast approaching the limits of their moralizing.

The agreement between Ukraine – the Cossack Republic, which

had an elected government, and the Moscow state (later the Russian one), which possessed some traits of despotism, was quite unnatural. Most of modern-day Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire and was ruled by the successors of Alexis, Tsar of Russia, for centuries to come.

After Bogdan Khmelnitskiy’s death in 1657, Ukraine passed through the so-called «Ruin». During this 20-year period, it was ruled by nine consecutive hetmans. Starting in 1660, individual representatives among them were in power on the banks of the Dnieper. From a global point of view, this led to a definite slowdown of the process of state-building as well as to the collapse of provisional institutions and traditions of independence. Moscow took full advantage of the situation. It

continued restricting the authorities of the Cossack Empire. In the days of Peter the Great, this process greatly accelerated. This led to the conflict between Peter the Great and hetman Ivan Mazepa and subsequent victory for the young emperor, near Poltava, over Charles ХІІ of Sweden. After such a defeat, Sweden gave up its imperial ambitions forever, while in Russia they considerably intensified.

Speaking about what is referred to as the «betrayal of hetman Ivan Mazepa», we should keep in mind an important moment which has already been examined by Russian historian Tairova-Yakovleva: «We should refrain from denouncing and cursing Mazepa and try to learn

from the tragedies of our ancestor. Don’t follow those propagandistic stamps used to explain the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the beginning of the 18th century. Blame for the conflict is overly simplified, and is far too often placed squarely on the shoulders of Ivan Mazepa, the «betrayer». We must be brave and affirm that the interests and goals of the young Russian Empire and the depressed Hetmanate differed from each other. Ukraine was a sort of hostage of Russia’s geopolitical plans».

This also manifested itself in the ambition of Petersburg to achieve full political liquidation of Ukrainian autonomy. A secret guide to the Senate Prosecutor General written by Catherine ІІ

stated the following: «Little Russia, Livland and Finland are provinces ruled by the granted privileges. It would be obscene to violate the privileges, but these provinces can’t be considered foreign and we mustn’t treat them as the foreign lands. These provinces, as well as Smolenshchyna, must be Russified and stop scowling».

This happened in 1764. They liquidated the Hetmanate institution and established a special college. Eleven years later, in 1775, they liquidated the Zaporizhian Sich, destroyed its fortifications, took away its archives and cruelly punished its foremen. Then they began the liquidation of the remaining pillars of Ukrainian autonomy: the regimental military-administrative system and the Cossack army.

But those negative events of Ukrainian history were accompanied by an important factor: at the end of

the 18th century, the formation of the national territory of Ukraine was completed. The migratory processes distinguished in different areas were of particular importance.

Administrative changes came along with some cultural innovations. Migration of Ukrainian cultural figures started in the mid 18th century. This was a sort of ideological movement, the wish to apply intellectual potential within the state which was militarily and politically more powerful, but less culturally developed in those times. Kiev scientists brought their own educational model to Muscovy, contributed to the appearance of new literature and painting genres, and helped the creation of

a new style called baroque. Due to the initial infusion of Ukrainian culture into Russian culture, later Ukrainians became influential shapers of Russian culture on par with Russians themselves.

The impact of the new nationalities also affected the religious field. Under Peter the Great, the leading roles in the earlier empire’s church were held by representatives of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Stefan Yavorsky and Theophan Prokopovich. Only in the 18th century did the situation generally change in favor of the «Great Russians».

It should be stated that in the 19th–20th centuries, the Russian Empire was one of the most powerful European structures.

That’s why during the process of creating a centralized state, it created the «native Russian lands» conception. The theory decreeing that «Moscow is a third Rome», appeared in the 19th century, and was consolidated by an appeal to the heritage and values of the Kievan Rus’ and unity of the Orthodox world. Excluding historical realities, this situation continues today. But then the Russian government needed local governors, so it provided definite privileges for the local social elites. The rights of the Ukrainian gentry, fixed in the Charter of the Gentry of 1783, were a great stimulus for further unification of the Ukrainian and Russian parts of the two nations’ respective elite circles. Tsarism afforded Ukraine opportunities for military or secular careers, thus encouraging their loyalty. That’s why the gentry’s representatives fought to protect

their own corporative interests rather than fighting for the rights to previously seized lands. The words of Vasyl Kochubey, an advisor to Nicholas II of Russia, were a great example of such mentality. When his countrymen from the Dnieper Left Bank came to help him, he said: «No matter that I was born a Little Russian, I’m a greater Russian than anyone else… My status raises me above all shabby arguments. I see your provinces’ problems from the point of view of our entire society’s common interests. I don’t care about microscopic views».

In the second part of the 19th to the beginning of the 20th century, relations between the two nations’ representatives were developing

in different directions. As a result, the great reformer Peter Stolypin classified Ukrainians as «aliens» (we know how his life ended in Kiev). In other words, at the beginning of the 20th century, this notion was used in regard to the entire non-Russian population, and the Russians were accepted as a «state» nation. So, then the project of the «Great Russian nation» nominally composed of Russians, Ukrainians, and Byelorussians, was buried by the authoritarian government. Other projects of co-existence of different nations in one state were absolutely lifeless and unpromising in the historical sense.

We all know how history’s most recent – and perhaps overly ambitious – project ended.

PATRIOTS, DEMOCRATS, AND THE GAMES THEY PLAY

UKRAINE IN THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE

Democracy is not accountable for the failings of a nation; however, the government is. The government protects itself with its instinct for self-preservation while the progress of our society fades into the background.

By Anatoliy Tolstoukhov, PhD in Philosophy

In 1654 The Pereyaslav Treaty was signed. Its initial aim was to create a union of two states, which later transformed into a protectorate. Basically this treaty became grounds for the annexation of a weaker country by a young empire. From global and national points of view, the events occurring after the treaty were historically absurd.

By Alexander Motsya, PhD in History

When there is a double standard, there is a divided government

Kiev scientists brought their own educational system to Muscovy

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Vorovskogo, 29-E, office 13, Kyiv, 01054

044 486 3360www.lg-d.com

Nearly every guest to Kyiv considers it a must to walk

down the Andriivsky Spusk, marvel at local monuments, and buy Ukrainian souvenirs, a great part of which are handmade images of «Ukrainian women» and «Ukrainian men». Be it a hospitable «Ukrainian» peasant’s wife of an unknown age, wearing a wreath, lots of makeup and bragging about her huge breasts, or permanently inebriated men in kuchmas and vyshivankas (traditional Ukrainian clothing), with enormous beer mugs. Or a mythical Cossack Mamay, armed to the teeth, an upland pirate of the late Middle Ages, wearing Turkish garments; he plays mandolin in his time off from pillaging and killing innocent people. He is not committed to either family, or society, or state. He is some sort of an asocial element, a member of an organized gang.

This image of our people is imprinted in the mass consciousness of our neighbors. However, the true image of the country, shaped by the last

thousand years, is an integral part of Central European cultural, intellectual, spiritual, political and economic identity. A century ago this country formulated a concept of the world order, enforced the

principles of a constitutional state for equal free people regardless of their origin, religion, language, and place of birth. Who and what does this article deal with? This text deals with some events in the history of peoples that populated

the present-day territory of Ukraine years ago. Some of those areas were part of powerful world empires – the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium), the Mongol Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Some others formed Kievan Rus (Lat. Regnum Russiæ). Others used to be both sovereign principalities and integral parts of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and also The Republic – Polish Rzeczpospolita. Its Latin name

(Res Publica, Pol. Rzeczpospolita) – translates as «public matter». The «public matter» of three peoples – the Lithuanians, the Poles and the Kievan Russians. Political leaders established this Res Publica – «a dual state of three nations», that lasted for almost 300 years and influenced immensely the development of Ukrainians, Lithuanians, Poles, Jews and other

peoples who inhabited the territory from time immemorial.

This text doesn’t offer any scandalous claims. What it offers is an account of the well-known events, chronologically presented,

which resulted in the formation of the community we call «citizens of Ukraine» today.

Kievan Russian (not «Russian» – this notion appeared only in the 18th century) people did not know the notion of «Ukrainian» until the

middle of the 19th century, as has been proven by Natalya Yakovenko, a professor of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. The concept of Ukraine in political, administrative and legal senses came into existence only in August 1917 when the Russian Provisional Government led by Alexander Kerensky recognized the right of Ukrainian people to autonomous existence within the Russian Democratic Republic. From that time on it was the only power structure to do so. This text

defines key concepts and provides a systematic account of main events that took place on the present-day Ukrainian and adjacent territories from the middle of the 10th century till the proclamation of independence of Ukraine on August 24, 1991. Throughout this century – from the 10th to the end of the 18th – the Right Bank of present-day Ukraine was an inseparable part of

Central European space. Meanwhile, the Left Bank – «Wild Steppe» – served as a permanent battlefield for numerous nomad hordes from prehistoric times on.

Between 1772 and 1995, large

parts of this territory became occupied (from the Dnieper to Zbruch) or annexed (present-day Left Bank) by the Russian Empire. However, contemporary Western Ukraine was embraced by the Habsburg Dynasty of European

monarchs who ruled over the immense part of the world as it was known at that time.

The occupation of Rzeczpospolita divided a once inseparable nation for a very long time. Its smaller part developed legally, culturally, and spiritually within the Austria-Hungarian Empire. After the fall of the Empire in 1918 and until the first Soviet occupation in 1939 present-day Western Ukrainian lands were the provinces of Poland.

The bigger part of Kievan Russian

people found themselves under the rule of the Romanov Dynasty. 150 years of being a part of the Russian Empire spilled over into a bloody Civil War, unprecedented «black repartition» of private property and abolishment of all legal and moral norms. During the first 30 years of communist dictatorship (1918-1948) 20 million people living on the present-day territory of Ukraine

were exterminated, disappeared or perished. This figure was 70% of the entire population as of 1917, or almost 50% in 1941. Moreover, it became the biggest manmade anthropological catastrophe in the history of Europe in the last thousand years. Reasons and consequences of this catastrophe are not comprehended by either our society or political leaders. One of the reasons is a lack of knowledge of the real history of our country and people that populated its territory from the remotest times. Historical knowledge in the consciousness of our state leaders and people has been replaced by myths formulated

by the most famous, quoted, and prolific national historian. The Head of the Central Council of Ukraine, later Soviet academician Mykhaylo Grushevskyy, formulated axioms about a long-established existence of «Ukraine» and «Ukrainian people» who over the course of history never had their own state and were forced to live under the rule of foreign invaders. He absurdly attributed aspirations to create a state to Zaporozhean Cossaks: people who terrorized adjacent lands for centuries and were against any legal codes. In short, he formulated radical anti-Polish and anti-Catholic, meaning anti-European concepts and ideas.

The postulations of Grushevskyy were appropriated and perfected by both Ukrainian Soviet and Ukrainian Diaspora’s historical sciences, which by the way heavily criticized each other. A strange mix of their conclusions became dogmas after the proclamation of the independence of Ukraine. As a result, school and university textbooks, political platforms,

foreign and domestic policies are based upon those misconceptions.

Foundational concepts of Ukrainian history, the way they function in our consciousness, are bases for the fake Ukrainian history. It is about non-existent «Ukrainian» people. It is sadly the history of people on the outskirts of European history and its nations: first and foremost Lithuanians, Poles, Hebrews, Tatars, Germans, Romans, Hungarians, Slovaks and others. In short, it is a history of a nation that never existed in a country that did not exist until August 1917. In fact, the history of Kievan Rus (which started to identify itself as «Ukraine» at the end of the 19th century) is a part of a larger historical frame which includes East Slavs and other ethnicities that for ages have occupied the land in between Oder and Dnieper – from west to east, and in between the Baltic and Black Seas – from north to south. In 2013 Ukraine should not ENTER the European community but RETURN to it. Read more at thekievtimes.ua

UKRAINE – EUROPE: ACCESSION OR RETURN?

This text defines key notions and provides a systematic account of main events that took place on the present-day Ukrainian and adjacent territories from the middle of the 10th century till the proclamation of independence of Ukraine

By Danylo Yanevskyy, PhD in History

Grushevskyy absurdly attributed aspirations to create a state to Zaporozhean Cossaks

The notion of Ukraine in political, administrative and legal senses came into existence only in August 1917

The concept of "Ukraine" came into existence in 1917 under Kerensky's rule

The postulations of Grushevskyy were appropriated by both Ukrainian Soviet and Ukrainian Diaspora’s historical sciences

The bigger part of Kievan Russian people found themselves under the rule of the Romanov Dynasty

THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 6 SPECIAL ISSUE

Contemporary historical science has elaborated on the quite

reasonable opinion that was presented by the academician of NAS of Ukraine, P. Tolochko, in his article «From Rus’ to Ukraine».

Speaking of the first formation stage of such terminology, it needs to be mentioned, that national and foreign written sources contain the names «Rus’sian land», or just «Rus’» designating the first state of the eastern Slavs; in scientific literature it is called «Kievan Rus’» (named after the first capital on the banks of the Dnieper river). Worth mentioning is that in the geographical sense, this specific region was Rus’sian land in a narrow meaning of the term: local princes, members of the clergy and merchants from Novgorod the Great in the north of the Slavic world, Suzdal and Ryazan in the north-east, and Halych in the Ciscarpathian region gathered here to discuss important state issues.

The word «Ukraine» also appears in the Old Russian times. Analysis of records from 1187, 1189, 1213 state that back then it referred to the outskirts of Pereyaslav, Galych and Volyn principalities, i.e. the term «Ukraine» did not mean the actual name of the territory but rather implied its frontier character.

After the time of the Golden Horde, the old «Rus’sian» name (not to mix with «Russian») continued to be used as the name of the country. It is no coincidence that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania was additionally named «Rus’sian» after Slavic lands were absorbed.

After the Pereyaslav Treaty of 1654 significant popularity was

given to the term «Minor Rus’» in the documentation and on the pages of historical compositions. This term was formed gradually between the 14th and 17th centuries, and first signified the territory of the Galych and Volyn principality later extending over the entire Southern Rus’. The name «Major Rus’» crystallized out in the northwest over time.

The notions «Major» and

«Minor» were used in essays of medieval geographers referring to some other countries and implied their inner political and territorial divisions (we can mention Wielkopolska and Małopolska). The «Minor» part of the country is its metropolis; the «Major» one is a colony, an extended territory. There is no need to get offended by the Minor Rus’sian designation of present-day Ukrainian territories, at that time, for it is supported by the old Rus’sian tradition. However, the «Ukrainian» variant was not covered by the mantle of oblivion. Moreover, the word «Ukraine» found a sound explanation then. It was cleared in the 17th century by P. Chevalier – the French diplomat who spent a long time at the court of the Polish king and had direct contacts with Ukrainian Cossacks: «The country where the Cossacks live is called Ukraine». From the point of view of the French national the region of East Europe really was the «outskirts» of European agrarian civilization – beyond that the

world of wild nomads began. A new impetus for the

development of Ukrainian consciousness and self-signification dates back to the 19th century; however, even then there was no unanimity about the issue either. As a bright example, let us address the point of view of M. Kostomarov: «In the 17th century, the names Ukraine, Malorossia, Getmanshchina were coined and

soon became archaisms as none of them embraced the sphere of the entire nation and only meant local and temporary occurrences in its history. The recently made up name Yuzhnorossy remains bookish, unless it stays so forever». The quite renowned historian had a point there, except the last prediction: «endurance» of the Ukrainian name. An important role here belongs to T. Shenchenko who, as noted by M. Gruchevskiy, «solved this issue of what his fellow countrymen should call themselves; they are people that speak Ukrainian, keep to their lifestyle and history». This designation was not only picked up by the national elite but also representatives of the social gutter.

The outcome of this complicated process was that from the very beginning of the 20th century, from the times of the Ukrainian revolution of 1917-1920, the term «Ukraine» was finally assigned to a particular part of the European world.

It is true that very few of the «sieg heiling» crowd can explain which of the OUN and which of the

UPA they demand to glorify. One way to do it is en masse – Melnikov followers who devotedly killed «heroes» that followed Bandera, or vice versa. Maybe they even see the Bolsheviks and Makhnovists among their idols?

Applying for all possible meetings and torch-lit parades to honor the «heroes of UPA», nationalists like to cite anti-historical and questionable, from a legal point of view, edict of Yushchenko «On Honoring the Participants in the Struggle for Independence of Ukraine in the 20th Century». Issuing it just a few days before resigning his post as the President,

Yushchenko conferred a title «Participant in the Struggle for Independence» to members of everything he could think of at the moment: UPR, Hetmanate, OUN, UPA, «Carpathian Sich». While doing so he never really got into definitions. Guess now, allegedly, who I have in mind!

As a «historian» deriving his knowledge from questionable sources, Yushchenko was not aware

of many peculiarities of his own country’s history as well as the history of the republics, unions and gang formations enlisted in the edict. For example, at the time the edict was being signed, he had no idea that the Ukrainian People’s Republic was the name of two administrative formations of 1917–1918: not only was it the UPR of Grushevskiy-Petlyura-Vinnichenko but also… Soviet Ukraine proclaimed December 25, 1917 in Kharkov by the decree of the All Ukrainian Convention of the Soviets! Thus, honoring the fighters of the UPR, you can easily drink to both the Reds and the Yellow and Blue. As for the abbreviation UPA, and the use of the term «Ukrainian Insurgent Army» this is an entirely

different story. Knowing only about the existence of Bandera’s UPA, Yushchenko probably did not realize that combat units of Nestor Makhno were also called the UPA. The same designation was used by the Commander-In-Chief of Soviet armies Antonov-Ovseenko, referring to the Reds who fought for the expulsion of the Blue and Yellow fighters from Ukraine at the end of 1918 and the beginning of 1919. Which of them should we honor? Or does it really matter?

Okay, let us put aside historical sophistry for a moment, and assume that, per se, «sieg heiling» torch carriers and Yuschenko himself honor the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and Ukrainian Insurgent Army of 1930

to the 1950s. However, similar organizations and formations, proudly calling themselves «armies», were numerous! At that, we all know the way Bandera’s OUN atrociously avenged Melnik’s OUN and the latter’s reciprocation. Not less atrocious was the struggle between Shukhevitch’s UPA and Bulba-Borovets’ UPA.

70–80% of memories of the Bandera or Melnik followers consist

not so much of accusations of the Bolsheviks or Hitlerites, but labeling main enemies of Ukraine found among the «heroes» of the other OUN or other UPA. This proportion is applicable to the numbers of people killed. No matter how much is said about how UPA (any of them) were struggling to restore the independence of Ukraine against the occupants of different kinds, for the most part they were killing Ukrainians! One can easily find the lists of victims of newly-minted «heroes». For example, much ado was made about the list of dwellers of the Gorodotsk district, Lviv region who died at the hands of Bandera’s followers. The overwhelming majority of this awful list – 596 surnames – are

Ukrainians, not Germans, Poles, Jews or Russians!

Feeble attempts to pass these people off as «occupiers» fail at the start. The majority are farmers, grain-growers, teachers, women and children. How is 10-year-old Petya Vavrinov related to the PCIA when he was killed by Bandera followers in Ugry village? What about the children of the collective farm chairman atrociously killed in front of his parents? One was 8, the other one – 10… A 6-year-old daughter of village council secretary Kantsyar axed to death! And 2-year-old Anna and 4-year-old Hryhoriy Klyuchnik who were killed that exact same way in front of their mother just because their father was fighting at the front within the Red Army and he was

really fighting against fascists! How can one now equate these children to SS-soldiers, and atrocious murders to acts of bravery?

While Ukrainians are encouraged to call UPA combat soldiers «heroes» as well as «Galichina» divisions, the USA started a trial against such a «hero» – 94-year-old Mikhail Karkots, a veteran of several subdivisions of the OUN, «Galichina» and even Wehrmacht.

American journalists are shocked that the «Nazi commander could live quietly in the USA for 60 years, hiding from justice». Do you know what caused the proceedings against the aged Ukrainian? His book published a few years ago in Ukrainian and presented in Western Ukraine openly distributed in Ukrainian public libraries and educational institutions. Karkots was received in Ukraine as another «hero» who, supposedly, fought the «occupiers». His memories do not shock Ukrainian citizens nor the aforementioned «sieg heiling» ladies. This is where we strongly differ from the civilized world, which still considers Nazi actions as bloody crimes, not heroic deeds that have no expiration date.

UKRAINE BEFORE 1917. BUT WAS IT «UKRAINE»?

WHO DO THE «SIEG HEILING» LADIES SALUTE?

Analysis of records from 1187, 1189, 1213 state that the notion «Ukraine» did not mean the actual name of the territory but rather implied its frontier character.

By Alexander Motsya, PhD in History

The lechery around glorification of OUN and UPA is unceasing in Ukraine. The «UPA veterans» are treading around Kiev again, on Khreschatyk the youngsters organize torch-lit parades to honor «heroes», and exalted ladies salute onlookers with a distinctively straight and upward-angled arm – «heil!» – assuring that the UPA never collaborated with the Nazis.

By Vladimir Kornilov, Director of Eurasia Research Center

The country where the Cossacks live is called Ukraine

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Very few of the «sieg heiling» crowd can explain which of the OUN and which of the UPA they demand to glorify

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Nothing comes from nowhere. Nobody can ever substitute

the dogma of private property’s immutability. Each of us guards the cherished deed to our apartment or house, land or dacha like a precious golden ring, hiding it in a number of packages somewhere behind the cupboard (so nobody could find it) ready to fight a dragon with our bare hands if necessary. We don’t have to open the door to anybody. Each of us can go on at length about the sanctity of property

rights. And there is one strong excuse in response to all reproaches of neighbors: «I can walk on my head at home». Not too long ago, about 60–70 years, there were other times that we keep silent about now, and hope to forget them, as they were very bad.

The middle of the last century was marked by violent vandalism against private property and land owners who were left naked and barefoot in a single moment. Nobody asked them permission to open the door or show their documents for the property. KGB officers simply came and took away their property, which had been earned by whole families.

Everybody swallowed that. And everybody was quite egoistically satisfied with this ardent vandalism. Because it isn’t ours. It isn’t mine. Because one could take things away from Poles. Why did Count Dzieduszycki need that whole villa? As for the Jews, it’s good that they’re gone: there is a place for people from the neighboring villages. And we will remember only those stories about our poor compatriots being evicted from their houses and sent to Siberia. We will somehow forget about what happened to other people.

The dirty little word «restitution» will continue exciting the imagination of the descendants of those who owned property before the war, as well as the descendants of those who came to everything ready-made, to the drawers full of clothes and started to live in a comfort they hadn’t earned nor created themselves. Property

restitution is one of the conditions for European integration. These items are optional and irrelevant, but in fact the most emotional because they are intended to capture the imagination. A scene showing the overseas descendants of Count Potocki’s family coming to Lviv and throwing innocent people out of their homes, forcing them to go to sleep at the train station followed by ORT (Channel One Russia) cameras, cries out to be imagined.

Let me offer a different picture for the sake of balance. Why don’t thousands of people from the families of the «dekulakization» period (those Ukrainians who lost their houses and lands) bring the issue of return of their hard-earned property to a head? Any restitution should be directed first of all toward the satisfaction of the interests of all citizens. There are a lot of Ukrainians who were left barefoot or put out of this world. Eastern and southern Ukraine swarms with family stories with only one person to blame. How are the repressed peasants worse than the Danube Swabs, Serbia so generously presents lands to?

The problem is that our people are not shy, not passive, and not undereducated. They simply would do nothing. Theoretically, even if there were some restitution mechanism, our people would be terrified to file a lawsuit requiring the state to compensate them with a sum of money equal to the

price of a confiscated family house turned into a village council by the Bolsheviks. They would rather live in mass-produced apartment blocks, eat Mivina (ramen noodles) and remember those glorious times when their grandfather fed half of the village and had 5 morgens of land.

Legally, restitution is the most difficult process of changing the owner. First of all, this requires a

nation-wide law that Ukraine, I’m sure, will never have. It won’t have it because appropriation of what belongs to others is a characteristic feature of a nation with a long history of lacking its own cohesive nationality while simultaneously building up other empires. Today’s patriots sincerely believe that the ancient city of Lviv is totally theirs, a Ukrainian city. Amnesia forces them to forget that only 16-18% of the population was Ukrainian before the war. So, wandering near

the Potocki Palace, the Bandinelli Palace or the villa of Joseph Franz, the majority of Lviv residents sincerely consider this heritage to be theirs. To accept the fact that the Bolsheviks, like racketeers, took this private property «on behalf of the masses» means to confirm at least the moral right of Potocki’s, Bandinelli’s or Franz’s descendants to claim their property. This will never happen for a number of reasons, including Ukrainian pride, insatiable drive for profits, a national inferiority complex, and historical resentment towards the «aggressors». Furthermore, Ukrainians will never admit that there is much more to the

Ukrainian history of Lviv and will never go beyond a Pan-Ukrainian mentality, according to which even the sun shines in a special, Ukrainian, way. More to the point – no restitution until Ukrainians live in Ukraine.

The problem of restitution (which currently doesn’t exist) does not lie

with a legal or juridical question, but first of all with an ethical one. The Ukrainian (in my particular case – the Galician) ethic definitely doesn’t acknowledge that Lviv was forced to become a Ukrainian city – at the hands of the Soviets that simply came and took away the private property of the Poles or the Jews on behalf of the modern citizens of Ukraine. The Galician ethos is based on opposition, on

revenge and on punishment for unforgettable offenses. The fear of losing Ukrainian Lviv, modeled in the Soviet era, is so strong that even innocent statements that mention the many displaced Poles and murdered Jews are seen as Ukrainophobic and a threat to the city’s Ukrainian identity. However, modern Lviv’s charm is in fact the charm of Polish and Jewish influences. The fate of «authentic» Lviv, now inhabited by present day Ukrainians, is not much different than that of the Austrian apartments they moved into: an aristocratic veneer, majestically adorned, housing ignorant peasants.

That’s why restitution is based on an important notion – justice. All those palaces, villas and castles were built by someone! Somebody lived and received guests in them. Somebody formed the family stock

with the purpose to hand over these estates to their children and grandchildren. They are real people, pre-war businessmen, aristocrats, Seym deputies, counts, collectors and employers. All of them by our common efforts are dissolved in an atmospheric and very convenient excuse, namely «that was a very long time ago». For the majority of contemporaries, the feeling that «that was a very long time ago» means anonymity, impersonality, and conditionality. Is it true that each of us, in some 60 years, agrees to become nobody, some kind of a lost wisp of smoke, without a name, a surname, or trace of existence?

Why is Europe passing through the restitution catharsis in throes and protests? Not with the objective of capitalistic gains. And not even with the objective of taking revenge against a communistic or nazi monster. Restitution is a declarative gesture of rendering justice. This

is rehabilitation of the neglected right of private property. This is an attempt to tell ourselves that «to come and roughly take away» is punished even after a half century. We (the nation without legal consciousness, without the culture of respect for those who are not one of us) will never understand this. We will assess restitution as a second seizure of property, not as the return of everything to those who were innocently robbed of it in the first place. (Or at least to compensate them for that which was lost). We are unable to make out that the pre-war owners were not only Counts and millionaires, but minor owners of small shops and ordinary residents of Lviv. Let’s pretend that their tragedies had never happened. Suicides, destructions and hard times had never happened either. And that they didn’t accept violent property loss as a personal apocalypse.

Restitution mostly scares those who wish to forget history or, to be more precise, selectively remember and apply it. It’s impossible to acknowledge aloud that history is tragic and unfair, and simultaneously do everything possible to «cut down» the triumph of justice. If a state (I emphasize – a state but not ordinary people) rejects restitution, it demonstrates its connection to the great-power racket. It seems redundant to mention the mentality of people again, but our peasants with their whole families fight for two meters of a homestead. However, all of them devoutly ignore thousands of square meters of other’s property that was simply illegally taken away. That’s why the attitude to restitution is a test for the attitude to the past. Those who wish to tailor it to their profit will continue to consider the villa of Joseph Franz to be Ukrainian.

Europe has already passed through this property catharsis, or is currently passing through it. Poland, Hungary and Romania are balanced by stocks and securities. The Czech Republic pays back money with a definite coefficient. Serbia returns land to the repressed Swabs. Latvia prohibited evicting current residents and committed to providing them with equal accommodation. Lithuania is in the process of returning land properties. Bulgaria assigned all non-liquid enterprises sunk by inflation to the new owners. All of these countries have opened up a discussion, and the number of the displeased has increased. Their number will increase even more. The reason is that there are always more people who prefer to leave the unpleasant past behind. On the other hand, restitution as it is approached by European countries is inspiring, with its great respect toward the practice and the confidence it instills in the ordinary citizen that his private property is inviolable. It costs states a lot of money and effort to teach its citizens that human crimes cannot be divided into those that need to be punished and those that can be ignored. Scary stories saying that European bourgeois will come and take everything away can impress nobody except the communistic electorate. Restitution is implemented by a state under its guarantees. Residents of the former stone buildings can sleep peacefully. There are no mechanisms of restitution and they won’t appear soon. The prewar archives have been destroyed. Most of the property has been reshaped and repurposed. Ukraine is not the USSR’s legal successor.

Finally, justice is not our forte nor will it be in the foreseeable future.

PHANTOM OF RESTITUTIONRestitution mostly scares those who wish to forget history or, to be more precise, selectively remember and apply it. It’s impossible to acknowledge aloud that history is tragic and unfair, and simultaneously do everything possible to «cut down» the triumph of justice.

By Ostap Drozdov

No restitution until Ukrainianslive in Ukraine

Property restitution is one conditions for European intergation. These items are optional irrelevant,

but in fact the most emotional

THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 8 SPECIAL ISSUE

The Polish state considered proximity with Russia as its

main strategic problem, since the Russians tried to take the role of regional leader in Eastern Europe away from Poland. From the time of Ivan the Terrible, Polish geopoliticians have suggested various recipes for dealing with this struggle, and all of them agreed that without tearing Russia along its ethnic «seams» there was no chance for Poland to gain regional leadership. The idea to cut national and ethnic minority groups off from Russia had never left the Polish diplomatic agenda, and in the 20th century it received its final conceptual component in the form of the Prometheism Doctrine. Poland compared itself with the legendary Prometheus who brought people the fire of freedom. As

Prometheus was devotedly fighting for human happiness, Poland was devotedly fighting for the freedom and independence of nations «enslaved» by Russia.

It was up to Warsaw, as for whom to add to the list of the «enslaved». As a result, this list contained nations that had never been at odds with the Russians, for instance, Byelorussians, Karelians, and Zyrians. In general, the Polish Prometheism had the aim to establish a whole group of legally independent states, which would completely depend on Poland and its allies (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkestan, Ingria, Idele-Ural, the Don and Cuban Cossack republics, the Crimea, Belarus, Moldavia and, of course, Ukraine) after the destruction of the Russian Empire. A whole network of expert, analytic

institutes and «Prometheus» offices were founded to promote this «Prometheus» ideology not only in Poland but also in Teheran, Helsinki, Harbin, Paris, Cairo, and Berlin.

The idea of Prometheism served as an additional ideological tool of the so-called Doctrine of Intermarium, supposedly sponsored by Josef Pilsudski. The essence of this proposal was the consolidation of all pseudo-independent states located between the Baltic and the Black Seas around Poland. The Doctrine of Intermarium was a concealed attempt to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth «from sea to sea» organized as federal republics. According to Pilsudski’s idea, this would be a federation of states driven by, like Poland, Russophobia, but, due to their insignificant political

authority, not daring to dispute the regional leadership over Warsaw.

Ukraine took a special place both in the Prometheism Doctrine and in the Doctrine of Intermarium, because its geographical position turned it into a «fence» closing off the road to Europe from Russia.

Polish support of Ukrainian independence in any form was not an altruistic impulse of heart but a bare geopolitical intention. For instance, let’s read the article of the famous geopolitician Wlodzimiers Baczkowski titled «We are not Ukrainophiles». «We are not Ukrainophiles… we are not moved by Ukrainian history; the image of steppe…or a cherry orchard doesn’t touch us, and we won’t shelter the abstract freedom… We look on Ukrainianism (Byelorussianism, Lithuanianism) as an ally […], realizing our own purposes and expansion’s course… That’s why we shout: «Ukraine must be independent!» Baczkowski wrote – if there is no Ukrainian nation, it is necessary to create one, artificially deepening the gap between Ukrainians and Russians in order «to stay out of the nationally united 90 million Great Russians plus 40 million Little Russians», because «a Ukrainian deprived of his Ukrainianism is a political Russian».

In these ideas Ukraine by default

takes the current role of Poland in the con-frontation of Western countries with Russia. Formerly, Poland was considered the «last bastion of Europe» in front of the «Eurasian threat». Now, Ukraine has all the chances to become this bastion. The closer Kiev is to the EU, the more responsibilities Ukraine will have to accept. Those include military and political obligations, which will not always be declared officially. If the civilizational «frontline» shifts from the Polish territory to the Ukrainian territory, Poland will no longer be the battlefield between two worlds – the Polish-Catholic and the Russian-Orthodox. From then on, the major conflicts will break out exclusively on the territory of Ukraine. Poland will stay away from this battle, while Ukraine as a buffer, which prevents Russian expansion towards the West, will have to carry all of the political and economic burdens on its own. All of it will be under the empty slogans of the triumph of the pro-European choice.

Poles, as a nation belonging to the Western-Catholic world,

aspired to join both the EU and NATO and were duly admitted to these organizations. This progression to full-fledged NATO and EU member was not without its own cultural intricacies.

Each nation and every country exists not only in real astronomical time but in social time as well. Social time can be understood as a period of social activities filled with events and facts that encode cultural traditions, norms, values, and beliefs on the inhabitants of a country. The prevailing civilizational (or cultural) code

of the Polish state is one that casts Poles as defenders: the Polish state is the last outpost of Western Christianity, locked in an eternal struggle on its eastern borders against the schismatic East Slavs. This narrative has acquired a politically correct gloss over the years, yet it has remained essentially the same. Additionally, the wish to integrate the post-Soviet republics that are located between Poland and Russia has become a fixture of this narrative’s ideology. Such cultural codes and practices develop over centuries. Therein lies the challenge of rapid social change.

This is precisely why certain members of a certain relatively successful economic union remain, to put it mildly, unhappy compared to more prosperous members. The leaders of these discontented nations were quick to join the union, and did not fully consider the slow-moving clock of social time.

Nobody can be an African today and turn into a European tomorrow, in one day. One can’t belong to one civilization, and in a night, after joining another one, wait for manna from heaven. Fissures between moral, economic and political standards that have developed over

many centuries will be immediately revealed, stranding the newly-arrived without the promise of a bright future.

In socio-cultural terms, Poles have never felt themselves to be different from the West, and entering the EU was a good fit for their cultural norms and political goals.

Since that time, Poland has achieved relatively firm economic stability, and could achieve even more, if instead of holding to the aforementioned narrative of the honorable defense of Western Christendom against the gnarly «eastern hordes», it would prioritize less ethereal matters such as cooperation with CIS countries, most of all – with Russia.

Moscow has effective economic relations with Berlin that have developed «over the head» of Warsaw, due to its own stubbornness. The economic

axis of Moscow – Warsaw – Berlin would benefit all three capitals, but the Polish national conscience isn’t able to dismiss the psychological directive, which has set the historical mission of Poland as a buffer of the western world on its eastern borders (this is a perfect demonstration of an acquired cultural code). That’s why, according to political mythology, Poles call Poland the «European Winkelried» (Winkelried was a Swiss patriot who threw himself upon Austrian spears during the Battle of Sempach and thus brought victory to his brothers in arms) and are very proud of it. Poles feel the rest of Europe should be indebted to them for the endless sacrifice they have made in confronting Russian Orthodox civilization.

As a member of the European Union and NATO, Poland took part in the occupation of Iraq, welcomed the aggression of NATO against

Serbia, supported the invasion of Afghanistan, and did not object to Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence. It’s impossible to be in the European family and not take part in its foreign policy decisions. It is just as impossible to isolate oneself from its obtrusive gay propaganda – the corner stone of European politics. The Poles must digest all this somehow, and while they managed to justify their participation in the NATO operations (the USSR was the occupant in Afghanistan, but we defend democracy there; rejection of Kosovo from Serbia is a fair punishment of Belgrade for human rights violation), as a Catholic nation they can hardly accept the homosexual «values» of an «enlightened» Europe.

That’s why in the future, Polish society will have quite a dilemma to resolve: how to preserve traditions and not become the black sheep?

UKRAINE IN THE EU: A SUCCESS OF POLISH GEOPOLITICS

Kiev's steadily increasing proximity to the European Union can be viewed as a success of Polish geopolitical thought. Let’s analyze the benefits of an EU-integrated Poland, also known as Kiev's lawyer in Europe.

By Vladislav Gulevich, Political Analyst

POLISH IDENTITY IN THE EU – EXAMPLE FOR UKRAINE

When discussing the future of Ukraine in the EU, supporters of European in-tegration often reference the Polish experience. Look at Warsaw, they say, they are quite content with life in the EU. The reality of the situation is a bit more complex however.

By Vladislav Gulevich, Political Analyst

www.thekievtimes.ua 9SPECIAL ISSUE

No country has left the EU so far, but many of them have

repeatedly tried to avoid European Union commitments. This «EU aversion» became a particularly prominent topic five years ago when the world financial crisis of 2007–2008 entered its most active phase.

In Britain, 100 thousand signatures for a referendum on the country’s proposed secession

from the European Union have already been collected. Such views are shared by almost 50% of the citizens of the United Kingdom. In January 2013, Prime Minister James Cameron promised to hold a referendum between 2015 and 2017. His own words, spoken in the Parliament and spread by the media, have come to be seen as the views of a «Euro-skeptic».

Sir James Cameron said the following: «Great Britain will attempt to recover authority granted to the EU after 2015. When we agree to new conditions, we’re going to give the British people two simple choices at the referendum: to stay in the EU under these new conditions or to leave quietly. It would be wrong to ask people whether they wanted to stay or to leave before the opportunity to establish correct relations appears. If Britain leaves the EU, it will be a one-way ticket without a chance to come back. Britain wishes to be a part of the reformed EU, but the level of disappointment over the European Union is currently higher than ever. We are a family of democratic nations based on a single market, not a single currency. Those who are outside the Euro-zone admit

that those who are inside of it need institutional changes». So, EU members that are not a part of the Euro-zone have their own reasons to keep it this way. In addition to Great Britain, these countries include Denmark and Sweden, as well as Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The countries of a «non-Euro-zone» are quite satisfied with their current

status in the EU. They don’t want to transfer control over their national finances to the European Central Bank or surrender their microeconomic policy to the Euro-commissars of Brussels.

But the main Euro-skeptic today is Hungary. On January 1, 2012, a new anti-European Union Constitution, adopted by the parliament on April 25, 2011, came into force. The preamble of the new Hungarian Basic Law specifies: «Spiritual and intellectual unanimity of the Hungarian people rests upon God and Christianity». A scandal flared up after an attempt to include an item about Christian values to the draft constitution of the European Union (2004–2005). Another similar scandal that comes to mind was around the Treaty of Lisbon (2007–2009) when the topic of religion was entirely ignored. A quite logical conclusion of the Christian values primacy became a law which is formulated as follows: «Hungary defends the institution of marriage between a man and a woman, as well as voluntarily established marital relations and a family as the basis for the country’s survival. Hungary supports the birth of children». This article actually outlaws same-sex marriage

and commits the state to protecting human life, understood as starting from conception, meaning a prohibition of legal abortion.

In a section devoted to economic policy, it states that the Hungarian forint is the na-tional currency. It also specifies that a switch to the euro requires a corresponding decision by the Parliamentary constitutional majority. Article 36, about the country’s budget,

includes standards restricting Hungarian national debt to 50% of GDP and presetting the income tax rate in the country. Alas, within the current European Union all this is referred to as the competence of its central authorities!

Another article of the Constitution of Hungary is extremely controversial. It says: «Being guided by the ideal of a united Hungarian nation, Hungary must be responsible for the destiny of Hungarians living outside its borders, must favor their survival and development, and must continue to support their efforts directed toward the preservation of their Hungarian culture. It will also favor their cooperation with each other and Hungary». Considering the large size of Hungarian communities in neighboring countries, this may provoke various conflicts and misunderstandings.

Today we have a curious fact and a lesson for Ukraine: one of the member-countries of the EU already has a current Constitution written up in case the European Union disappears. But what prevents other EU countries, especially those outside the Euro-zone, from adopting a similar basic law?

The government of Greece is trying to introduce an

amendment to the Criminal Code, which, if approved, will essentially forbid any criticism of the EU. If violated, it will be followed by six or more months of imprisonment. The text of the amendment was brought to light by journalist Jorgos Delastik in the Greek newspaper Ethnos (Oct.24). The amendment is as follows: «Whoever with intent to violate sanctions or restrictive measures imposed against States or entities or bodies or natural or legal persons by the decisions of the UN Security consultative or EU regulations, shall be punished with imprisonment of at least six months…»

In particular, this law will be able to regulate the protests of Greeks against intervention into Syria or any other country in the future if there is a corresponding sanction of the EU council. The Greek government has earlier accused the opposition of «extremism» because it dared to officially criticize the EU and its economic policies. In other words, criticism of the EU in Greece has become so widespread that it threatens the existence of the Greek state and it needs to be fought by the sword of the Criminal Code. For the wheels of state never spin without oiling. As a matter of fact,

the Greeks have become the most anti-EU nation of Europe.

This spring, the Head of the Church of Cyprus, Archbishop Chrysostomos II urged the Greek government to withdraw from the EU, which is, in his opinion, doomed

to fall apart. The Archbishop blamed the crisis of the EU on three creditors – the EU, European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. Chrysostomos II stated that the EU’s fate will be defined by the current state of affairs in Italy. As a reminder, the economy of Cyprus came to the verge of a default as a result of a financial crisis this spring, when the government had to confiscate foreign deposits in the local banks in order to somehow make ends meet.

Of course, you can think of Euro-skepticism as an exclusively Greek feature. However, today many European politicians no longer view a withdrawal from the EU as an impossible development for their countries. Moreover, many of them even rally for establishing special procedures for a possible secession from the EU, taking into account all possible factors.

In mid-October, ex-President and ex-Prime Minister of Czech Republic, Václav Klaus, published a book entitled Czech Republic at the Crossroads – Time to Decide.

According to Klaus, the EU is the source of all the negative things happening in Czech society, its politics, and national economy. He insists that abundant and omnipresent regulations, practical

liquidation of national governments’ sovereignty, and dilution of responsibility are some of the chief faults of the present-day EU. He also believes that by continuing EU membership, it will be impossible for the Czech Republic to implement

long overdue fundamental and systematic reforms. 15 years ago, as Prime Minister, Václav Klaus took part in negotiations about the future EU membership of the Czech Republic, at that time calling this idea an «arranged marriage». Today, the Czech Republic would have to file for divorce, says Václav Klaus.

However, current President of the Czech Republic, Miloš Zeman, publicly questioned the ex-President’s position. «I have a totally opposite opinion. I consider myself a Euro-federalist. I strongly believe that not only is the EU helpful for the Czech Republic, but the Czech Republic is helpful for the EU – they equally need each other», stated Miloš Zeman.

The head of the state is sure that the EU as it is today should be viewed not only as a free market and trade zone but as a special community with a specific cultural identity. «I hope that Václav Klaus admits the existence of such phenomenon as «European culture», argued Zeman. However, does everybody benefit from the European culture in its current version? Miloš Zeman did not mention anything about the economy and finances of the EU in this hypothetical argument with the Ex-President – let sleeping dogs lie. However, it must be taken

into account that the wish to leave the EU is now quite widespread among the ruling elite, not to mention marginal political forces. Thus, the question persists: where is the European Union heading to today?

ON «REAL» AND «VIRTUAL» EURO-SKEPTICS

WHO WANTS TO LEAVE THE EU AND WHY?

After reading a couple of statements made by European politicians wishing to leave the EU, I was reminded of the old saying «One ruble (in this case euro) to get in and ten to get out!»

By Eugeni Morin

The Kiev Times readers have probably heard before that in many European countries a punishment for public denial of the Holocaust is imprisonment. Europe intends to continue with such practices of fighting «thought crimes».

By Evgeni Morin

One of the member-countries of the EU already has a current Constitution written up in case

the European Union disappears

Czech Airlines presents

A 330 comingsoon... www.czechairlines.com

Criticism of the EU in Greece has become so widespread that it threatens the existence of the Greek state

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THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 10 SPECIAL ISSUE

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Has the Ukrainian population again turned into «sincerely

mistaken» people? This happened for the first time during the perestroika era, on December 1, 1991, at the referendum for «independence». The second time this happened was on Kiev’s Independence Square «Maidan Nezalezhnosti» in the winter of 2003-2004 when foreign benefactors assisted the residents of a tent camp who, even without that, were well equipped by special funds. And, the third time this took place was when they supported the idea of joining the World Trade Organization.

Our life strongly depends on information received by the brain. This information influences the generation of our thoughts and opinions. But even open access to information may not always help. So, one needs its full comprehension. Perhaps, the authorities read the agreement with the EU but didn’t understand it.

This fragment of the Association Agreement can be found on the Internet: part 2, clause 44, paragraph 2. «Duty introduced according to provisions of the paragraph 1 of this clause mustn’t exceed the lowest of duties introduced within the most favorable treatment regulations on the day that precedes the day the Agreement comes into force, or the rate of import duty fixed in the Schedule of Ukraine in Addendum ІІ of this Agreement. Import duty can be applied only to the import before the end of the year as is stated in Addendum ІІ of this Agreement». It seems it’s impossible to understand it.

Examination of the original text, beginning from February this

year (without claim to thorough comprehension) shows a classic manipulation of information by professional European agitators, and promises to lead to discrepancies between the text and application of the document, which is going to be signed by Ukraine in November.

Agitation for European integration more often starts with a trap-question: «Are you against integration with the European Union?» The audience can’t always reply as it is on the other side of the TV screen, or maybe because no one would wish to take the initiative and have problems. Or maybe because this question is addressed to a limited and specially trained contingent of a special studio. Such a question has only one answer

in that context. But look: nobody talks about actual membership of Ukraine in the EU anywhere! It’s worth remembering those countries that have signed the Association Agreement: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Libya, Morocco, Mexico, Palestine (temporary treaty), Tunisia, Chile, and South Africa. Are we on the way to joining that list?

There is also an Agreement of association and stabilization, signed by Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Montenegro. But in contrast to our Agreement, the above-mentioned agreement contains at least a reference to the prospect of membership.

The former premier of Great Britain, Tony Blair, «sees Ukraine in the EU in 2025». But the same

Britain is preparing a referendum about withdrawing from the EU! The Populus Company conducted a survey, commissioned by the British newspaper The Times. If the referendum had been held at the beginning of 2013, 40% of the British electorate would have voted for withdrawal from the EU. 37% are against withdrawal, and 23% found it difficult to reply. It seems Britain is simply warming up a place for Ukraine in order to give it up in the future.

European integrators reserved Ukraine the right to be considered a «developing county» (while at the end of the 80s the Ukrainian SSR, according to UN classification, was a super-developed state): paragraph IV, chapter 2, part 1 of clause 43 «A country that develops.

To the extent to which Ukraine is considered a developing country, for the purposes of the clause 9 of this Agreement, no protective measures applied by the EU part won’t be applied to it, subject to fulfilling conditions stated in the clause 9 of this Agreement».

Here are some facts and quotations

Quotation from the Agreement: part 2, clause 56, paragraph 2. «For achievement of goals stated in the paragraph 1 Ukraine must follow the schedule of Addendum III of this Agreement:…(і) to implement correspondent acquis of the EU for its legislation;…»

The same clause, paragraph 8. «Ukraine will gradually introduce

the code of European standards (EN) as national standards, particularly harmonized European standards, whose voluntary application is considered not meeting the legislation requirements stated in Addendum ІІІ of this Agreement. In addition to this implementation, Ukraine will cancel the controversial national standards, in particular application of so called All-Union State Standards (GOSTs) developed before 1992…». Does this mean that Ukrainian State Standards are «controversial national standards»?

Prime-Minister Mykola Azarov, during his meeting with delegation of «The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe» held on October 3, 2013, said: «The Agreement of Association is comprehensive and quite complex

for Ukraine. For example, the technical regulations adaptation for Ukraine in 10 years requires about 165 million euro. This is a huge work. We’ll need to rebuild our entire economy to the standards totally new for us». This is 4 times larger than the total volume of all direct foreign investments to Ukraine for the years of «independence». Nobody will give

this money to Ukraine. And Ukraine doesn’t have its own money.

Mykola Azarov affirms: «Within the first year, the EU reduces import duties almost to zero in 98% of all our commodity positions. In our turn, during 5 years we reduce duties not to zero, but to weighted average 2.75%. We preserve a definite level of protection for a considerable period».

Until Ukraine fulfills requirements for ecological and labor legislation, one can declare openness for Ukrainian goods without any risk. According to academician Heiz, Ukraine needs to spend 50-100 billion euros to fulfill the EU ecological requirements! While Ukraine adapts these requirements, Ukrainian goods are going to be outside the Free Trade Zone.

The Europeans have made plain that they won’t allow competition of the Ukrainian side on their markets. Azarov provided a quotation of the words of the Airbus representative who clearly stated that he won’t allow Antonov planes to compete in world markets.

European agitators try to convince us of the «new possibilities» somewhere out there in the EU to apply our talents… Statistics indicate otherwise: 140 thousand qualified workers migrated from Spain to Germany; 35 thousand migrated from Italy to Germany; 40 thousand migrated from Greece to Germany… Unemployment in Spain makes up more than 25% including more than 56% among its youth; in Greece unemployment has reached about 30%, including 60% among its youth! 2.5 million people have left Romania. 400 thousand people have left Latvia, and this makes up 15% of the population!

At the demand of European integrators we must equalize prices for electricity. European manufacturers won’t allow us to resort to dumping (pricing policy) with regards to the European goods. Ukraine will have to raise prices within the country.

Recently, Petro Poroshenko noted that the volume of Russian export to the EU considerably exceeds the volume of export to the CU (Customs Union) countries. The

volume of RF (Russian Federation) exports to the EU reaches $118 billion, with only $18.5 billion to the CU. But the EU population, which consists of 28 countries as of 01.07.13, is 504 million people, and the population of CU countries – Belarus and Kazakhstan – is 27 million people. This means that Russia exports almost 3 times as much per capita to the EU as it does to the CU. Ukraine is persistently against NATO, though we’ve been graciously offered the role of cannon fodder: part 2, clause 10, paragraph 1. «The Parties will strengthen practical cooperation in prevention of conflicts and in the sphere of anti-crisis management, particularly with the purpose to provide more active participation of Ukraine in civil and military operations of the EU organized to overcome crisis situations, as well as in correspondent studies and trainings, in particular those held in the context of the Common security and defense policy».

And…it is very important that the agreement mention unconditional fulfillment of all items!

So, let’s review:- we won’t ever become an EU member;- it will be a long time before cooperation with the CU returns;- entry of Ukrainians to EU countries isn’t specified in the agreement;- a rise in prices for public services will inevitably lead to a decline in stand-ards of living;- land sale will become unavoidable;- The Ukrainian defense industry will die once the EU companies are able to participate in the Ukrainian arms procurement contracts;- Ukraine will become a buffer zone between Europe and Eurasia, until it becomes the enemy of Russia.

The worsening of standards of living will have to be explained somehow! Of course, an external enemy will be required. And this enemy will be actively formed by the controlled Russian media. And a new scenario will start then… But this is quite another story.

Nowadays almost everybody – oppositional and

ruling majority politicians, experts, analysts, mass media representatives are estimating the prospects of signing the Association Agreement with the European Union.

Without pursuing the task of refuting the Euro-skeptics and Euro-optimists let us concentrate upon purely sober estimates of the

AA project provisions which the majority of Ukrainian citizens will not read.

Current Ukrainian legislation has consciously chosen a path toward European Integration. Ukrainian law «On the Basis of Domestic and Foreign Policy» adopted in 2010 after the initiative of President Viktor Yanukovych provides a means for the integration of Ukraine into European political, economic and legal space so that Ukraine can become a fully legitimate member of the EU. Therefore, the creation of the free trade area is one of the strategic goals of dual trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and the EU. Taking into account aspirations of integration of our country, the EU offered to create the free trade area in the format of a

free trade area plus (FTA+). It is essential to distinguish

a «classic free trade area (FTA)» from a more advanced format, a «universal free trade area (FTA+)».

Classic free trade area foresees the creation of clusterization of two or more customs territories, cancellation of tariff restrictions and other preventive measures for considerable trade volumes. At that particular exemption from

free trade, a regime of so-called «delicate» goods is allowed. The FTA+ format includes not only trade of commodities but also services, and provides access to the markets of state purchases. Making deals in FTA+ format involves a number of specific provisions concerning: - deep liberalization of goods and services trade, differing significantly from the provisions corresponding to the agreements of the WTO; - Liberalization of the foreign investment regime; - Liberalization of the state purchases regime;- Application of more severe measures on intellectual property protection;- Implementation of common ecological norms and standards, as well as labor standards.

The ultimate purpose of creation of the FTA between Ukraine and the EU is the formation of a common economic space. Future FTA will serve the purposes of achieving the deepest possible economic integration with both parties of the Agreement.

The project of the AA contains the entire chapter on the creation of the FTA. It is the most important part of the document for it regulates

goods and services trade between 46-million Ukrainians and 500 million EU residents.

It foresees such revolutionary innovation as free transfer of commodities (some part of them will have the quota, for example, milk, meat or grain, the others will be imported to the territory of Ukraine and the EU customs-free) and provision of the possibility for the Ukrainian party to render services for the EU (for example, transportation of goods).

The instruments of trade security are also foreseen; introduction of sanitary and phytosanitary norms; assistance to the development of relations in the power field.

What are the advantages of the free trade area?

Based on the analysis of the

provisions of the project Agreement it is necessary to single out the following advantages of the FTA: - improving the access of Ukrainian goods and services onto the EU market; - improving export conditions for Ukrainian production due to price advantage gain owing to cancellation of import duty. - re-equipment and modernization of national enterprises; - increase in investment volumes from the countries – members of the EU into Ukrainian economy; - increase in volumes of dual trade and grow of the foreign currency flow; - increase in sales volumes of agricultural production of traditionally export-oriented branches (grains, sunflower oil): - increasing effectiveness of labor resources allocation; - extension of product and service mix on the Ukrainian national market; - improving the competitiveness of domestic products with the introduction of the new standards;- reduction of non-tariff barriers for trade in agricultural products within the framework of cooperation in the field of sanitary and phytosanitary measures;- harmonization of customs procedures and improving the efficiency of the customs authorities in the context of trade facilitation;

- establishment of a harmonized legal framework for the activities of the subjects of trade relations by bringing Ukrainian legislation to EU legislation;- encouraging the development of competition and restricting monopoly;- improving access to high-quality imported machinery, seeds, crop protection, etc.

What risks does the FTA carry?Any integration processes contain

risks. Experts define the following risks for Ukraine: - the need to raise significant funds to enable the adaptation and implementation of new legislative acts;- increase in competitive pressures in the domestic market;- losses in some industries due to their low competitiveness on the European market;- increase in the level of unemployment;- displacement of domestic producers on the domestic market;- increase in the bilateral trade deficit due to the deterioration in the structure of exports in connection with the reorientation of domestic exporters from export of end products to export of raw materials and semi-manufactured goods;- shortage of domestic goods in the domestic market due to the reorientation of export producers;

- lack of funds and the need to find partners and investors for the purpose of modernization of existing facilities;- need to upgrade and change production technologies;- limited ability to provide protection of «young» sectors of the economy who have not reached the proper level of competitiveness and are in need of government support;- reducing the competitiveness of agricultural products in the domestic market due to the presence of a strong system of state support of the EU agriculture;- reduction of demand for agricultural machinery of the national production.

Based on the facts discussed above it can be said that signing of the Association Agreement with the EU is an unconditional progress that will manifest itself in about five years.

Sliding down to the Customs Union will mean «comfortable stagnation» today or a lukewarm bath of some kind where the water will be cooling down with time. Thus, the blow against non-modernized outdated Ukrainian economy, which will wish to hide in the post-Soviet markets, and it will be even more painful than it can be today as it follows from the CU restrictions imposed upon the access of Ukrainian goods to their markets.

EUROPEAN TRAP FOR THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY

10 ADVANTAGES OF THE ASSOCIATION WITH THE EU

The groundlessness of legends about the alleged niceties of life that are supposed to flood Ukraine after signing the Association Agreement and Free Trade Zone with the EU has been scientifically proven. However, both the Ukrainian government and the opposition would risk anything, including their honor, dignity, and a chance for Ukraine to ever join the list of developing countries, in order to sign the agreement.

By Alexander Dudchak, Economist

Nowadays almost everybody – oppositional and ruling majority politicians, experts, analysts, mass media representatives are estimating the prospects of signing the Association Agreement with the European Union.

By Vladimir Denysiuk, senior analyst at of strategic intelligence Geostrategy

Examination of the agreement’s original text reveals a classic manipulation of information by European agitators

The Association foresees such revolutionary innovation as the free transfer of commodities

www.thekievtimes.ua 11SPECIAL ISSUE

The document was marked «confidential» for a long time

with a Ukrainian translation being offered only recently. This circumstance left little time to analyze the necessity of Ukrainian products in the EU, if the fateful agreement is signed.

An open secret is the dire state of the country’s economy following the 2008 crisis. Strange as it may seem, many view the Association Agreement as Ukraine’s entry into the EU. The Agreement stipulates the opening of the Ukrainian market on a unilateral basis. However, there is no mention of Ukraine’s chances of becoming a member of the EU in the agreement.

Considering Ukraine’s export markets, it is not difficult to notice that a number of different raw materials are exported to the EU, but a majority of Ukraine’s value-added commodities are exported to the countries of the Customs Union (further – CU).

In Europe there is no need for industrial branches with the high potential of growth that could become a driving force of the Ukrainian economy (aircraft

industry, rocket and missile engineering, defense industry, atomic machine manufacturing). Branches required to apply EU standards at once won’t be able to compete on the home market. The reason is that by accepting the conditions of the Association Agreement, Ukraine will have to switch to the technical standards of the EU for the domestic market. After signing the Agreement, guidelines for machinery and equipment for the home market will be imposed, thus annulling the old norms of technical regulation. It seems infeasible from any point of view. Within the EU, the processes of transfer and adaptation to the guidelines of the European Union typically take 20 years. Ukraine has been enouraged to reorganize its production in 1-3 years. According to the regulations

of the Agreement, this norm would be practically impossible to change after the agreement is signed because all the decisions on

changes are made by the Council of Association where the EU has 50% of the votes. In addition, unlike processes for current and past EU candidates, the text of the Agreement makes no provisions for the system of compensatory measures, possibilities and sources of concessional loans for Ukrainian producers within a transitional period and a period of adjustment to the new requirements. Correspondingly, enterprises do not have the financial possibility to transfer to the standards prescribed by the Agreement because there is no model on how to do so.

Enterprises will be obliged to reequip their production on their own and under strict time constraints; otherwise the realization of their production on the territory of Ukraine will be banned according to the conditions

of the Agreement. In fact, nowadays the majority

of Ukrainian hi-tech and food enterprises export their

production to the markets of the CU, in compliance with the free-trade agreement. Almost all commodities for high-grade processing are exported to the CU markets (it can be deduced from the structure of Ukrainian export to the territories of the CU and EU). Signing the EUAA will lead to the revocation of 70% of import duties from EU countries to Ukraine in the course of the first year. Vice Prime Minister of the Russian Federation D. Shuvalov made an official statement that

as progressively as Ukraine will be canceling the duties, the CU will have to introduce duties similar to the European

ones for the goods coming into the market from the EU (most favored nation treatment). Such asituation would cause Ukrainian producers to lose the ability to compete on the markets of the CU against European producers. The EU subsidizes its manufacturers on all stages of production and export, which is forbidden for the Ukrainian government to do. Based on the Agreement of WTO membership, the subsidies mentioned are compensated by the rates of customs duties of the CU (for example, 15% of dairy production under most favored nation treatment) and the regime of free trade for Ukraine, but the association agreement does not envisage the absence of subsidies for European manufacturers on third-party markets.

Thus, Ukrainian enterprises

will lose both home and export markets. A year will be enough to replace Ukrainian-produced goods with those imported from Europe, causing the destruction of Ukrainian enterprises and an increase in the number of unemployed, hastening the growth of social tension in the country. This situation puts Ukrainian manufacturers into a very difficult position.

Without proper and deep analysis of the upcoming risks and losses for Ukrainian enterprises as well singling out special tools to eliminate them in the area of technical regulation, the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU will lead to the collapse of the idea of European integration for Ukraine and irreparable growth of social tension within the country.

Former USSR citizens, as well as everyone living in socialist

countries up until 1989-1991 are quite familiar with the vegetables, fruit, wine, brandy, and tinned foods produced in Bulgaria. At that

time Bulgaria was jokingly referred to as the «veggie patch of the Eastern Bloc». Both the climate and natural conditions of Bulgaria were quite conducive to agricultural development; a number of products

became brands: «Bulgarian sweet peppers» or «Bulgarian sour milk» that were popular all over the Eastern Bloc.

However, when transformed from the «16th republic of the USSR»

(as it was informally called) into a «new member of the EU» the country almost completely lost markets in the post-socialist world for their agricultural production. Bulgaria’s market share in Eastern Europe and the former USSR was quickly snatched up by other countries. Today it is rather difficult for Bulgaria to return to its

former markets. Due to its minimal use of mineral fertilizers, Bulgarian production is highly praised in Europe but it cannot get through to Russian, CIS and former Soviet markets. Why?

First of all, the EU forbids imports of cheap food products from outside the borders of the EU, thus maintaining a high price for food on the continent. This has caused a permanent conflict between «developing countries» and the EU on one side and the USA and some other WTO countries on the other called the «Doha Development Round» (Doha is the capital of Qatar where the WTO summit took place in 2001).

Secondly, the agricultural budget for CAP is made up of the tax liabilities of all countries and amounts to nearly a half of the EU budget. The trick is that in order to raise marketability the EU returns this money only to those countries that boast a high level of agricultural production, i.e. the same «old» EU members like France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. Other members of the EU, such as Finland, are somehow less subsidized. After having entered the EU at the beginning of the 1990s more than 5,000 farming households went bankrupt. Still others, like Latvia, get no subsidies at all. There is no point in wasting the budget on petty producers getting in the way!

It is interesting to wonder if the Romanians and Bulgarians ever stopped to consider what awaited their small agrarian countries in the European Union? Did they ever infer that they would be granted the honorable right to subsidize the agriculture of Old Europe and watch their own production grow feeble without subsidies? It would appear that some countries revel in «agricultural socialism» while others have to sort out the charms of «market competition».

Hence, poor countries – new members of the EU – are put under such conditions that they cannot either fully seek subsidies or agricultural funds from the EU to develop their industry. Their lot in life is to pay EU taxes and be a market outlet for the powerful countries of the «Old EU».

In the meantime, the

European Commission refused to adjourn the privatization of Romanian agricultural lands by foreigners. Land sales will start in January 2014. This will make the agricultural situation in the country even more complicated.

The Romanian government asked the European Commission to allow sales only to the attested investors, the ones who have necessary experience and want to invest in the development of agriculture. Bucharest wants to create a

special body that will ensure the correct estimation of land prices in transactions. Yet the European Commission decided against any exemptions previously granted to other EU members.

Meanwhile, the EU intends to cut down on agricultural funding of neighboring Bulgaria. Currently, the agricultural branch of this

Balkan country is in need of modernization and protection of the domestic market from cheap (subsidized) products imported from Western European countries which have practically driven the fruit and vegetables of local producers out of the market.

It turns out that the EU is willing to support only strong producers. Sink or swim fits European logic best. However, the old members of the EU are not ready to let go of their life jackets.

MARKETABILITY OF UKRAINIAN GOODS

EU DOUBLE STANDARDS OR AN AGRICULTURAL BUGABOO OF THE WEST?

Signing the cherished European Union (further referred to as the EU) Association Agreement is the #1 topic in Ukraine and a matter of both concern and interest for anyone somehow related to Ukraine. This event has many directions and points to consider; one of them is marketability of Ukrainian goods in EU countries.

By Oleg Naginskyy, CEO of the Customs Union Suppliers Association

The EU forbids imports of cheap food products from outside the borders of the EU, thus maintaining a high price

for food on the continent

A year will be enough to replace Ukrainian-produced goods with those imported from Europe

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Many countries aspire to join the EU for the benefits of membership… It is interesting to wonder if the Romanians and Bulgarians ever stopped to consider what awaited their small agrarian countries in the European Union?

By Evgeni Morin

THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 12 SPECIAL ISSUE

One of the key promises stated by this agreement is the

creation of a «visa free regime» and «free trade market in the EU». In other words, something not provided by the Agreement!

The funniest thing is that while talking western countries into signing the «fateful» docu-ment, the Ukrainian diplomats responsible for such agreements stated quite the opposite in Western European capitals!

The Ambassador of Ukraine in the EU Konstantin Eliseev, who is on an endless tour of the countries still hesitant to support the Agreement, in his interviews for the European mass media assures them that there is nothing about visas or trade migration in the document! The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant quotes Eliseev: «Do not be afraid. Ukrainians are not getting right to work in the EU!»

A senior Ukrainian diplomat understands the main fears of the developed EU countries! Actually, the Dutch reporter talks about them obliquely: he calls it «a concern that after the Poles, Bulgarians and Romanians West and North will also attract your fellow citizens». And the West is, of course, scared, knowing how difficult it would be to digest millions of hungry Ukrainians!

What was the real purpose of the EU expansion in the 1990s? Let us recollect the worrying statistics of the 70-80s. The population of practically all developed countries was decreasing rapidly as burgers’ salaries rose due to the lack of an abundant work force (unskilled). Europe was overwhelmed with mostly uneducated migrants from the poorest African and Asian countries, unwilling to fit within the European environment.

The fall of the Berlin Wall could not have come at a better time. Apart from eliminating its main geostrategic business competitor Western Europe got a cheap work force of millions of migrants, qualified enough and used to hard physical labor yet not so completely different from the Western public as the

ones from Somali and Pakistan. Certainly, burger Europe did not feel like sharing its highly paid positions with migrants from Poland or Lithuania. That is why the expression «Polish plumber» has become so common a phrase in Europe as «Russian vodka» or «American rides» in the mind of

an average person. Ukrainians are fed with tales of the «Polish economic wonder». However, some information is kept back; for example, for the last few years the second ranked language spoken in Great Britain is Polish, and it is the Poles that keep their first place among criminals those sent

to prison. One may ask: if there is such a boom in Poland, why do the Poles take off to neighbor Germany, England or France at the next opportunity? The answer is simple: Polish professors (Lithuanian, Estonian, Slovakian) working in England receives higher wages as a plumber or cab driver

than as an academic teaching in his or her home country.

Overall, Western Europe has solved its demographic problem! The population of developed countries keeps steadily growing owing to the constant inflow of «Polish plumbers», a cheap work force from Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, a vacuum is created at the borders of the EU! Now Poland, Lithuania and Estonia (further as the text goes) are in need of unskilled work force as their «plumbers» have moved to the West for big money. What should the Poles do under such circumstances?

The have found the answer in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands migrants from Galichina dragged along to Poland to occupy those low-paid positions regarded by average Ukrainians as a possibility to have at least some income. The cheap work force from Ukraine is literally saving Poland and neighboring countries of Eastern Europe from depopulation!

In private conversations the Poles never try to conceal why they need Ukraine. Former Presi-dent Alexander Kwaśniewski in his interview for the Wpost magazine has recently openly, in spades, called Ukrainians a «convenient (read – cheap. – Auth.) work

force» for the Poles explaining: «We are interested in it because several hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians work in Poland today having almost replaced two millions of the Poles who moved to the West. Moreover, Ukrainian emigration to Poland is convenient because it does not

trigger religious, civilizational or any conflicts. They are, in fact, from our point of view, the easiest, most pleasant migrants we need right now». Rather explicit, isn’t it? An indication of the acceptance of this view was demonstrated by a recent Polish reporter, who was interviewing the ex-President, was very surprised at such formulation: what is the big secret? It is obvious for the Poles! Furthermore, it is the essence of the Eurointegration of Ukraine for them!

What will Ukraine get from sending its sons to work as low-paid servants of the Polish families who have sent their own breadwinners into the West for rich pickings? Europe solves

its demographic problem at the expense of the Poles; the Poles use Ukrainians in that sense also. Where should Ukraine get labor resources in order to sustain its economy and businesses? We have no such source of labor as the Ukraine is for Poland! It turns out

that those merrily promising «free trade market in Europe» really may bring about the de-population of Ukraine?

We need to realize that the goals of the western and eastern parts of the EU regarding Ukraine are different. The West has not digested the intake of labor

migration from Poland and the Baltics and is waiting in horror for January 1, 2014 when all the restrictions will be taken off the migrants from Romania and Bulgaria. This is precisely why Brussels does not intend to lift such restrictions from Ukrainians in neither the short- nor long-term. Yet Poles need cheap «plumbers» to replace the ones that moved west. This is absolutely essential to the Polish miracle!

Speaking honestly, they need to reach quite a few goals: closing down of Ukrainian enter-prises that will both eliminate competitors and provide a stable flow of an even cheaper work force; keeping Ukrainian salaries

at the same low level (what is the point in highly paid Ukrainians?); maintaining, however contradictory it sounds, some of the barriers for labor migration – illegal migrants are always cheaper that the legal ones, all barriers lifted will make Poland a transit

country for Ukrainian workers. This is the real essence of the

Association Agreement! This is implied by the words «free trade market in Europe»! This is why such expensive advertising campaign of «living in a paradise», meaning the EU. Think about that!

Locking its gates to low-skilled foreign immigrants, the Old

World still follows the American model of development by devouring those young and zealous, brainy innovators with empty pockets. Nevertheless, considering the ubiquitous nature of the internet nowadays, you can connect with these skilled and motivated people in their home countries.

This story is just a snapshot of the many examples.

Ukrainian IT-specialists took second place at the international online competition «Brainbench 2013». More than 11 million participants from 50 countries

registered. 56 Ukrainian programmers showed outstanding results in individual tests on databases, several different programming languages, frameworks and graphs. First place was awarded to the American team. Other developed countries such as Germany, Israel and Canada did not even make it into the top 10.

Brainbench.com is an online platform for specialist certification in all professional spheres ranging

from biotechnologies to economics worldwide. The «Bench Games Championship» has been held for several years now; its projects allow participants to take free

qualification tests (free access is granted to more than 600 tests) in various disciplines and to receive a certificate confirming the qualification. The lack of demand upon the return to Ukraine is one of the biggest problems today. For example, specialists and national companies working in the IT-sphere who are able to develop a high-quality product, are growing fewer every year. Ukrainian institutions train around 50,000 IT-specialists

per year! However, today Ukraine faces a deficiency of professionals working this sphere.

A survey of the IT labor market in the first quarter of 2013 showed that

in the field of software development there was a tremendous (the largest of the survey, in fact) deficiency in the number of programmers for: mobile technology, Net, Java, Flash and others. The main reason is that they prefer to cooperate with foreign outsourcing companies. Despite being recognized by the government, Ukrainian talents are more frequently applied in other countries. One great example of this is the European turbofan

plane A-400 which first took to the skies in 2009. Interestingly enough, European aviation workers studied the analogous Ukrainian An-70 which made its first flight 15 years prior to that. Its possible construction was even discussed in Europe. As a result, these planes are surprisingly similar.

Brain drain has become a much more serious problem for Ukraine in recent years. According to the official data, almost 2,000

specialists moved abroad, for permanent residence, to the USA, Germany, Russia and other countries between 1996 and 2011. Moreover, experts predict that the flight pace of «Ukrainian brains» abroad could threaten national security. Many factors drive this intellectual exodus, but the main one is fairly obvious – low salaries. Ukraine is losing its intellectual potential, and because of this – its future.

THE ESSENCE OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION IS TO REPLACE PLUMBERS IN POLAND?

UNSUNG UKRAINIAN GENIUSES

For the last few weeks Ukrainians have been hammered with abundant advertising promising an enormous amount of benefits and goodness brought by the upcoming Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU…

By Vladimir Kornilov, Director of Eurasia Research Center

The West knows how difficult it will be to digest millions of hungry Ukrainians

Despite being recognized by the government, Ukrainian talents are more frequently applied in other countries

If you've ever purchased a complex and technologically advanced product from Europe, there is a good chance that a significant number of its parts were manufactured by the technical genius of Ukrainian-born engineers and developers. Sadly, these people remain nameless in a time when Ukraine needs heroes of a new level, intellectual heroes. However, Europe needs them too.

By Vladimir Novikov

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Who should determine foreign economic policies

for the country – politicians or economists?

Usually, politicians have the last word when it comes to government’s decisions. However, before defining foreign economic policies, one should seriously take economists’ opinions into consideration. Politics is a form of radically formulated economics.

Discussions about either signing the Association Agreement with the European Union, or joining the Customs Union indoctrinate the society with many myths and stereotypes. What is your opinion about this?

There are two major myths. The first one is that after signing the Association Agreement Ukrainian life conditions will drastically improve. The second myth is that joining the Customs Union is the only right choice predetermined by the history of Ukraine.We will have a European life only after we raise our producing capacities to the European level, start to use natural resources reasonably, and when the citizens of the country unconditionally follow the laws and legal provisions in every area of life – from the most intricate to the routine ones. As for the historical choice, Ukrainian people

made it more than 20 years ago. It is documented by the existing legislation and supported by the overwhelming majority of political forces and population. This choice lies in the European future.

After the Association Agreement is signed, the Ukrainian mechanical engineering industry will be in ruins. How would you comment on this popular stereotype?

Manufacturing companies that adhere to high standards now and those that will learn to be competitive in the world market will continue functioning. They will have some time to learn. Companies that will be unable to adapt to new quality standards simply will have no future in any union. Does anyone really think that Russia will buy

outdated machinery and equipment in Ukraine? Now, we are in the CIS and all of a sudden Russia refuses to like our candies.

Now mass media are heatedly discussing a scenario that the EU will shut down Ukrainian factories. Do the market leaders face the same threat?

The EU will not shut down Ukrainian factories. The ones unable to work according to the EU standards will be compelled to shut down. This is the law of economics. People who operate Ukrainian industry understand this very well.

Those who stand up for the European integration claim that agro-industrial sector of Ukraine will step into an unclouded future. Their main thesis is: Ukraine is one of the world leaders of grains and sunflower oil export and Europe will not be able to withdraw from the trade with Ukraine. Will agriculture become the basis of national economy?

Experts warn about a possibility of a global shortage of food supplies in the near future. Ukraine is blessed by God because it is given the most fertile lands in the world and has an advantage that surpasses the capacities of many other countries. And I am not talking only

about grains and sunflower oil. It is hard to enumerate everything our agrarians can grow. Yet, I would not view agriculture as one and only locomotive of the economy.

Do you support a widespread opinion that Ukrainian light industry is dead?

The light industry situation is really difficult. My hope is that it will recover. Modernization can help, as well as the fact that it can be more profitable for the European companies to produce goods in Ukraine rather than in China. Let’s take a look at neighboring Poland. Light industry is developing quite successfully there. New work conditions should create additional opportunities for small – and midscale businesses. And it is not only true for the light industry.

Can the EU trick us by giving a formal consent to our tight cooperation and at the same time protecting its producers from competition by quota?

The Agreement does not impose quota on the majority of goods. However, when they are required, the parties have already agreed on their conditions and amounts for the foreseeable future. Apart from that, the Agreement contains an article about their regular review in case of a necessity.

How do you estimate the risk of Ukraine getting low-quality products disguised as «high-quality European products»?

Low-quality products from the EU should not be imported into Ukraine. One of the main functions of a state is to prevent inferior goods from entering its markets. This function is not fully implemented in Ukraine. There are legislative disadvantages in this sphere, too. To improve the quality of products should be a top priority for us now. Otherwise, no markets will be open to our country.

When one opens up domestic market, should they more concentrate on selling the products abroad or keeping positions of Ukrainian manufacturers within the country?

Domestic market is the most important outlet for producers of any country. The possibility to saturate one’s own market with goods is a key to stable economic development. For national producers the main consumer

should be the Ukrainian nation. Otherwise, we will break the basic laws of economics.

Regarding the importance of the European integration, former leader of the Ministry of the Interior Yuri Lutsenko, who then fell from grace, noted that he is actually willing to pay more for high-quality butter and other commodities from the West. What is your opinion?

Quality is not strictly defined. However, there are quality criteria which are stated and described in a variety of documents. Producers of inferior goods will be compelled to shut down their business if

their products are not in demand. What we really need is an effective system of quality control.

By signing the Association Agreement, the country, apart from fears and superstitions, hopes to receive investments. How will that go?

The Association Agreement, certainly, will lead to the growth of investments from the EU countries. It will become a signal for the investors that our country is establishing civilized rules of business management. This is justified by the experience of the post-socialist countries, in which the co-operation with the EU led to the increase in investments. I am sure that the investments will be brought to the industrial sector as well. For example, our IT-specialists, instead of going abroad, will be able to find a job in Ukraine and work for the biggest Western companies which are either already present in Ukraine or will come soon. I am also sure that Ukrainian military industrial sector after receiving foreign investments will be able to effectively realize its potential. There are not too many «aerospace countries» or countries that produce super-airliners, best in their kind: An-70 or An-158.

Can the risk level of choosing the Western direction be calculated?

There is a risk. Businesses and manufacturers unable to meet European quality requirements will be shut down or perform a new function. Exporters unable to handle high standards will have to look for other market outlets for their products. To move forward cannot be easy, and to increase the level of life takes much effort.

While moving westwards, we keep the East in mind. Different experts warn us that Russia will close off its markets for us. Is it a possibility?

I don’t want to pass a judgment over the Russian actions towards some of the Ukrainian products

because their intent is clear. However, Russia is our important trade and economic partner and we need to take this into consideration. Russia, too, understands Ukraine’s importance for its economy. Nevertheless, by raising the quality of its products, Ukraine will be looking for other market outlets apart from the Russian ones.

What is the role of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce in similar situations?

The UCC systematically facilitates national businesses and among other things assists them in their work with foreign markets.

After the Agreement is signed,

the importance of the UCC will increase especially for small- and midscale businesses. Large-scale Ukrainian companies have their own marketing departments but the small ones can learn about the rules of the EU market, its quality and safety requirements, only from the UCC.

We are planning to create a Department of co-operation with the EU and pay a lot of attention to helping our businesses to become competitive at the European market. Ukrainian products, which are certainly competitive, have to find their buyers. Maybe they will be

from the EU, Russia, or even Africa, or any other market. Assistance to the Ukrainian manufacturers is one of the UCC priorities.

The UCC has all the opportunities and necessary tools. We are members of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Chambers Federation, and the Eurochambers. We founded more than 20 bilateral business councils and other similar structures with foreign partners; we have established business relations with colleagues from more than 80 countries.

For the last 10 years, 40% of Ukrainian foreign trade is with the CIS countries; the EU share is

30%. Now, we are witnessing the tendency of the growing EU share in the foreign trade of Ukraine. So, where will we lose and where will we gain in future?

In the period from 1996 to 2012 foreign trade volume between Ukraine and the CIS countries increased by 3.2 times and export – by 3.5 times. Within the same period, Ukraine’s foreign trade with the EU countries grew by 5.5 times and export – by 5.2 times. Thus, the growth pace of foreign trade volume between Ukraine and the EU increased approximately by 70%. And this growth is stable.

GENNADIY CHIZHIKOV: IT IS TIME TO REFUTE CERTAIN MYTHS

The President of the Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine is confident that the future of Ukrainian economy does not depend on the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU or co-operation with the Russian Customs Union. First and foremost, it depends on modernization of manufacturing companies.

By Rostislav Bunyak

The EU will not shut down Ukrainian factories. The ones unable to adapt to the EU standards will be compelled to shut down

Does anyone really think that Russia will buy outdated machinery and equipment in Ukraine?

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THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 14 SPECIAL ISSUE

Some experts state that trade between Russia and Ukraine

decreased by $19 billion dollars in one year.

The explanation is easy: Ukraine has cut down on their demand for Russian energy supplies; Russia has introduced a number of restrictions on domestic exports from Ukraine, such as confectionary and dairy products. In addition, problems with Ukrainian meat have recently arisen. Of course, we realize that Ukrainian exports can be quickly replaced by other suppliers. What is more, we need to mention that Russia has been extremely critical of Ukraine

for entering the World Trade Organization only to turn around and join the club itself, getting an even better deal in the process.

What are you hinting at? It is not improbable to suggest

that the step towards European integration, which Ukraine is making today, is making Russia sit up and take notice. Moreover, in the long-term, Russia could follow our lead and deepen economic and even political cooperation with the European Union. Even if that happens, today’s political manipulations could

lead the country to a dead end. The choice of a foreign economic

partner is, ultimately, a matter of politics.

Certainly, choosing European integration can cause serious threats such as restriction of external business volume with the countries of the Customs Union, and «inconvenient» conditions for energy export. «Gazprom», which initiated discussions of preliminary payments for gas import to Ukraine, is perhaps the most obvious example of this inconvenience.

The choice has to be made anyway. Political clarity allows for

a better perspective and is more efficient.

But is there such a thing? I have heard several times that Viktor Yanukovych is still on the fence with this issue.

Actually, it is clear that the president has made his choice. When the Party of Regions was experiencing ambiguity, we got together and discussed this issue. Our decision was unanimous – Euro-integration. Furthermore, we decided in favor of the EU not just a few days ago; the issue was always a part of the foreign policy of the Party, and now it is its top priority.

Political Scientist Vadim Karasev thinks that until the Olympic Games in Sochi have been completed, Russia will behave modestly. After that, a real war for market outlets will descend upon us.

We are already paying a high enough price for European integration. Obstacles to Ukrainian exports to CU countries are real concerns, their economics impacts already being felt. We realize that the pressure can swell even more. However, we have always proposed the idea that Ukraine could serve as a sort of bridge for Russia in its desire for European integration.

The same idea was finally articulated by the Prime Minister of The Russian Federation, Dmitriy Medvedev. He noted that extended relations between Ukraine and the European Union along with

the signing of the Association Agreement can alternatively become a competitive advantage for Russian companies which could cooperate with Ukrainian businesses exporting to the EU.

The Customs Union is a system of international treaties between

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This system comprises a single customs territory, abolishes customs duties within the Union, and shapes uniform customs and foreign trade policies towards third-party countries. 92% of Russian foreign duties were taken as the basis for establishing tariff rates. According to international agreements within the Customs Union, the Russian budget receives 87.95% of the total import customs duties. The Belarusian budget receives 4.7%, and the budget of Kazakhstan – 7.35%. In the Customs Union Commission, which is its main regulating body, representation is distributed as follows: Russia – 57%, Belarus and Kazakhstan – 21.5% each.

It is worth noticing that the CIS countries have an imbalanced common structure of foreign trade. Raw materials are dominating in exports; manufacturing prevails in imports. Thus, about 60% of

Ukraine’s exports are made up of raw materials (agricultural products, chemical products, metallurgy and mineral products). The CU countries’ exports are mostly comprised of energy resources and raw materials. So, upon entering the CU, Ukraine would be competing with its CU partners on the world raw materials market because it would be exporting similar raw materials. Subject to the Ukrainian economy’s dimensions, most export duties will be directed to the Russian Federation’s budget. One may recall recent statements made by Alexander Lukashenko about the transfer of $3.8 billion dollars of export duties to the Russian budget made by Belarus in 2012 for petroleum derivatives made from Russian oil and delivered to third-party countries. To compare, in 2011 the transfer was $3.07 billion dollars.

About 1/3 of all Ukrainian imports are made up of energy resources, which is quite a

considerable percentage of the total. On average, Ukraine imports about 60–65% of the entire volume of gas consumed within the country, 65–70% of all oil processed in the country, and 100% of the nuclear fuel for Ukrainian Atomic Power Stations. 90% of imported gas is delivered by a single supplier – «Gazprom». Ukraine receives 80–85% of all imported oil from Russia. We receive 92% of all nuclear fuel elements from a single supplier as well – from the Russian OJSC TVEL. So, considering the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on energy, joining the CU may considerably cheapen energy resources and make the power intensive products of Ukrainian enterprises more competitive on the world market.

According to the Statistics Committee, for the last ten years, about 40% of Ukrainian foreign trade has been with CIS countries and about 30% – with EU countries. At the same time, trade with developing Asian countries is

becoming increasingly common. During the EU financial crisis of 2008, Ukraine managed to avoid considerable reduction of its exports due to the reorientation of export flows to the countries of the CIS and Asia. On the other hand, it should be noted that CU countries are actively diversifying their foreign trade, and orienting

it mostly to China and other fast-growing Asian markets. According to the Institute of Strategic Studies (founded by Leonid Kuchma), a part of inner-party trade in the CU makes up only 11%, which is 6 times lower than that of the EU index, 5 times lower than in the FTZ of «China–АСЕАН», and 4 times lower than that in the Northern American FTZ «NAFTA».

Ukraine has a negative foreign

trade balance both with the CIS and the EU. Import exceeds export. In 2012 a foreign trade balance with Russia totaled -$9.8 billion. In 2013 this index reached –$10.1 billion with European countries. Ukraine has a positive foreign trade balance with Asian and African countries. So, it doesn’t really matter if Ukraine joins the CU or

the FTZ in the EU. This won’t solve the problem of the negative foreign trade balance of the country.

It should also be noted that after becoming a member of the CU, Ukraine would be committed to raising import duties on certain commodities in its trade with third-party countries to the current level of the CU. For example, currently crude oil is imported to Ukraine with a zero percent

import duty. After joining the CU this duty would be 5%. So, Ukraine will have to purchase goods (light industry products, food industry and mechanization equipment) from partner countries of the CU, because import from third-party countries would be unprofitable and much more expensive than it is now. While choosing a course of

integration, Ukraine needs to focus on its competitive advantages in the world division of labor. What kind of Ukraine is it going to be? Highly technological or agrarian, power-intensive or science-intensive, a transit state or a hub at the center of Europe? The answers can help us select the best international union that will be most beneficial to our government.

VLADISLAV LUKYANOV: «WE REALIZE THAT THE PRESSURE CAN SWELL EVEN MORE»

THE CUSTOMS UNION: HOW PROFITABLE COULD IT BE FOR UKRAINE?

The People’s Deputy of Ukraine from the Party of Regions believes that Russia will choose the same way toward European integration as Ukraine.

By Rostislav Bunyak

While choosing a course of integration, Ukraine needs to focus on its competitive advantages in the world division of labor.

By Alexey Leshchenko, Gorshenin Institute

What kind of Ukraine is it going to be? Highly technological or agrarian, power-intensive or science-intensive, a transit state

or a hub at the center of Europe?

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www.thekievtimes.ua 15SPECIAL ISSUE

BRICS has come to be a well-known acronym, with each

letter representing the developing industrial powers Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This title appeared almost 12 years ago in the work of economist Jim O’Neill, who was the then head of one of the largest commercial banks in the world – Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

In his 16-page review, published on November 20, 2001, the author used the acronym BRIC in a report on the world economy, entitled «The World Needs Better Economic BRICs». The homophonous connotation of the word «brick» implicit in the acronym drove home the point that these countries were acting as a foundation for future world economic growth. This is how BRIC came to be. (Later the BRIC countries would be joined by the letter «S» for South Africa).

12 years later the idea to merge four countries into one union seems to be bold and well-planned, but then it looked completely scandalous. O’Neill himself said

that he felt constantly compelled to exclude several countries from BRICS, owing to their excessive differences – geographical, historical, cultural, religious, not to mention language and world view. But in spite of that, Brazil, Russia, India and China are bound by their status of having rapidly developing economies as well as a common aspiration to achieve a more balanced world order. That’s why the Chinese version of the acronym BRICS is more colorful and metaphoric than its English connotation: «传统金砖四国» (jinzhuan guojia) which is literally translated as «countries erected

from golden bars» but not simply «the bricks».

In his 2001 report, which has become a historical one, Jim O’Neill noted a unique characteristic about each country, according to their functions in the world division of labor: Brazil is a «world raw-material base», Russia is a «world filling station», India is a «world chancellery», and China is a «world factory». Many scholars and critics who write about the economy today consider Jim O’Neill to be one of the greatest specialists in world finance over the last decade. This seems to hold true today, as evidenced by his regular publications in some of the most prestigious finance and business journals, including Bloomberg.

So, what did the author of the term BRICS last write about these countries? He examined the topic: «So what do the Brics countries want from their new development bank?» That’s what he called the article published in the British newspaper «The Independent» on August 8, this year.

The author compares the BRICS countries on the basis of different criteria. China and India are the largest importers of raw materials; Brazil, Russia and SAR are their exporters. In Russia the annual income per capita in 2012 was about $24 thousand – on the level of the European Union. In Brazil, China and SAR it varied between $9 and $12 thousand. India is much poorer – its income per capita is about $4 thousand. Four of the five BRICS countries are the largest states with a developing market economy. But in financial terms, the economic growth of China exceeds the economic growth of all BRICS

countries put together. J. O’Neill especially emphasizes the economic role of China (the world factory of goods) and the geopolitical role of SAR (the world center of gold mining), supposing that the new development bank will be established in one of these states.

«During this period I saw a really strange subject in China. Not because of its dimensions but also because, in spite of the recent GDP growth decline, it is the only country from BRICS that met my 2001 expectations in relation to the economic growth over this decade», O’Neill writes.

According to the article’s author, to succeed, these large countries with developing markets really need to develop three spheres of the key factors of 18 criteria for stable economic growth. They are: public administration, education and access to modern technologies. These are the criteria used by Goldman Sachs’s analysts to single out BRICS countries.

But there is another comparative criterion – the joint common

(external and internal) debt of the West and BRICS. Both in gross and in per capita terms. It turned out that BRICS represented the creditor-countries, and all countries of the West were the debtors. So, it is unclear: either a high standard of living and development is connected with high rates of debt burden, or accumulation of debts will last forever in the modern world and the BRICS countries will endlessly credit the West… And what if the debt pyramid immediately stops growing – what would happen to the West? Alas, there is no word about this in the article by the creator of the term BRICS.

For the first time in Ukraine, all the most progressive world

practices ranging from therapeutic horse riding to art-therapy will be integrated and offered at a single facility. Kameliya, the first eco-rehabilitation center of «hippotherapy», is a fairytale land with its own rules and laws; a world of children and horses.

Eco…«Green» principles inform the center’s architecture. All buildings blend into the natural landscape; everything is made of environmentally safe materials and equipped with energy-saving systems. Human ecology, or the relationship between people

and their environment, is highly emphasized.

The first one…The novel center will unite various practices of rehabilitation. Moreover, it is an unusual architectural complex, a sheltered space where children should feel safe, as if in a cozy, beautiful world.

Rehabilitation…The Center is being established for the benefit of children suffering from ICP, autistic and nervous disorders, and psychological traumas. The underlying concept also involves harmonization of children and adolescents with antisocial inclinations as well as

psychological support and training for their parents, as it is important that children feel comforted beyond the Center.

Center…Kameliya is an impetus to encourage the establishment of such centers across the country. Scientific research and international conferences dedicated to networking in the sphere of «hippotherapy» will be held here. Plans call for the formation of a national scientific database in order to efficiently keep statistics and records about children with special needs. Additionally, in the future the training and resource center will offer internships for students.

Of hippotherapy…Hippotherapy is tremendously effective in the rehabilitation of children with special needs. No technical simulator compares to what a child gains from the contact with a real horse.

«Kameliya»……was the name of the horse that began the history of hippotherapy in our country. Social support is exceptionally important for the realization of this project. The level of social responsibility in our country is mounting up; more and more people are becoming aware of their own personal responsibility for our society, its present and future. www.kameliya-centre.com

In recent years, the world has become increasingly focused

on US national debt. The US government is compelled constantly to raise the maximum debt limit. In 2008 it amounted to only $9.9 trillion; in 2011 it reached $15.1 trillion. The main US creditors are China and Japan, which have granted almost half of all US loans. The remaining US credits have been

granted by a number of European countries, OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Brazil.

Default rehearsal Leading world economists

forecast that on October 17, a technical default of the US economy would be inevitable because there wasn’t enough money to serve the enormous volume of state financial liabilities. This would entail the failure of the whole current financial system. But a day before the ostensibly unavoidable default, on October 16, US Senate leaders managed to reach an agreement. This enabled President Barack Obama to sign an appropriations bill, as well as to raise the US debt ceiling and borrowing limits. In addition, the

US leadership managed to continue financing government institutions until January 15, 2014. The Kiev Times previously reported that on September 27, the US government had partially shut down budget-financed organizations after it was unable to approve state budget distribution for next year. The main point of contention was President Barack Obama’s keystone issue, in

the run-up to the 2012 election, of healthcare reform, which was signed into law almost three years ago and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2012. According to the international ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, the US economy lost $24 billion as a result of the partial shutdown of government institutions. Moreover, the stalemate felt by budget-financed organizations reduced US GDP growth in the fourth quarter by 0.6, approximately 2%.

Currency concerns Naturally, the slowing of the US

economy had a negative effect on the dollar’s value and exchange rate in regard to other world currencies. Within the last week of the budget disputes in the USA, the dollar depreciated, even in spite of a

positive outcome and avoidance of a technical default. From the 14th to the 18th of October, the value of the American currency dropped by 1.1% compared to the six major world currencies. «If these trends prevail, we could see a rate of $1.40 per euro soon» – the treasurer of the «National Credit» Bank, Oleg Zorenko, stated.

The more the national debt grows,

the more dollar bills are issued. This naturally leads to the devaluation of the currency. That’s what the president of the Ukrainian analytic center, Olexander Okhrymenko, said, confirming the treasurer’s concerns. As a result, goods in dollars rise in price, and the dollar debts, on the other hand, depreciate. «If US securties fall in price, there is a risk that the world investors would wish to sell them. But the United States already can’t reacquire all of its public bonds, nor even a part of them» – Okhrymenko explains.

There are a number of other reserve currencies in the world, such as the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc. «But they are not so popular. The world isn’t ready to trade and sign contracts in these currencies» – Okhrymenko says. The Chinese Yuan is of key interest, but this currency is not yet a freely convertible one.

Crisis for exportAfter a brief slump to the

American currency and its devaluation, owing to the FRS Quantitative easing program, the economic gaps are going to intensify, first in export-oriented countries – due to more expensive imported goods for the American consumer. Ukraine will also be negatively influenced, and pressure on the hryvnia will increase. That’s what the head of the analytic department of the investment company Concorde Capital, Olexander Parashchiy, predicts.

Unfortunately, the Ukrainian economy still strongly depends on the American currency. That’s why its depreciation may lead to a price surge in Ukraine as well, Olexander Okhrymenko complains. As a result, all savings and deposits of Ukrainians, as well as the National Bank’s international reserves in dollars, will drop in value, he explains.

Analysts believe that the rate of the US dollar’s devaluation will grow in the near future. «Perhaps the USA will switch on the dollar printing-press to pay its debts. This will certainly lead to the reduction of the dollar’s value» – Oleg Zorenko complains. Only if the USA will start to reduce its expenses and avoid the printing of new banknotes, analysts believe, would the American currency be saved.

EU AND BRICS: WHO OWES WHAT TO WHOM?

AMERICAN THREAT

By Evgeniy Morin

America is impetuously increasing the volume of its national debt, which has already exceeded $17 trillion. Experts believe that this may have a negative effect on the value of the dollar which, in turn, will reduce international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the savings of ordinary Ukrainians.

Could the young BRICS oppose the old West?

By Mike Garbuz

BRICS represented the creditor-countries, and all countries of the West were the debtors

The rate of the US dollar’s devaluation will grow in the near future. «Perhaps the USA will switch on

the dollar printing-press to pay its debts

«KAMELIYA» – A LAND OF CHILDREN AND HORSESNearly 20,000 children living in Ukraine today are diagnosed with cerebral palsy (and the numbers are sadly increasing). Holistic rehabilitation is the only way to help these children find a place in society.

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THE KIEV TIMES | NOVEMBER 2013 16 SPECIAL ISSUE

You hosted one of Ukraine’s most famous political Talk

shows, and thus you were able to see the political life of Ukraine from the inside. What has made the biggest impression upon you? How is the Ukrainian political scene different from that of Russia?

When my Moscow colleagues ask me this question I tell them to imagine a country in which all of the major TV-channels belong to private businessmen. These channels run political shows only live and they always, as a matter of fact, feature leaders of the opposition parties. In this country, supporters of the oppositional politicians have almost a half of the spots in the parliament and opposition parties and movements are represented in all the regional legislative meetings and hold the majority in some the regions of this country. Some of its city mayors support the opposition, marches and protests are allowed throughout the land, and its media have a variety of voices and opinions. Journalists, who harshly and at times excessively criticize the government, don’t go to prison, and media owners don’t lose their jobs. The president of this country, according to all of the opinion polls, has at most 30–35% public support but there is no doubt that there won’t be a second round at the elections. No matter which political technologies are employed by the supporters of the ruling party, everybody knows that the 2015 elections will be with a sharp and even fierce struggle. This freedom, in my opinion, is what distinguishes Ukraine from Russia.

You have just said that the government is harshly and uncompromisingly criticized. Earlier, in a different interview, you mentioned that in Ukraine, high voltage oppositional critique sometimes lacks competence and constructive commentary. Does it refer to exclusively to the reality in Ukrainian?

I do not renounce my words: Ukrainian journalism is characterized by uncritical adherence to the opposition. To use an old Soviet expression, many Ukrainian journalists suffer from a «children’s Left disease». It manifests itself when bloggers, authors of investigative publications, and columnists very often replace constructive critique with accusatory zeal and then a measure of journalistic honor becomes the harshness of incriminations towards the government. For a regular reader it can be difficult to distinguish between an op-ed of a blogger

who keeps a blog on an online newspaper and a position of an editorial board of the newspaper. I am saddened when I notice that some of my younger colleagues don’t bother putting their arguments together in order to justify the wrathful claims they make. For many of them, this current government is a priori «thuggish», «criminal», and «lawless», «corrupt» etc., and it seems it is an etiquette rule now to trash them. The situation is a bit different in Russia. I feel there is an increasing drop in professionalism of Russian journalists. For the last 14 years, from the moment when Vladimir Putin became Prime Minister, slowly, step by step, inch by inch, the nuts were tightened harder and harder. The censorship was becoming more and more strict. Certainly there are certain «reservations» where it is allowed to freely express one’s opinion: New Times journal, Novaja Gazeta (New Newspaper), radio station Ekho Moskvy (Echo of Moscow), Internet TV-channel Dozhd (Rain) and some other news websites. But these media are allowed to exist

only because the Kremlin needs to defend against Western criticism. They are simply a decoration which creates the illusion of a free press in the country. Also, their small circulation and limited distribution prevents these resources from becoming politically influential and receiving a significant viewership. If that happened, there is no doubt about their immediate shutdown. All of the important TV-channels and newspapers with a vast circulation are living in a situation of increasing pressure and in an increasingly complex system of taboos. In such an environment, the brains of my younger colleagues are drying out. By the way, sooner or later, they will end badly. I remember that at the end of the 1980s in the USSR, including Ukraine, as a result of Gorbachev’s perestroika, the system of obstacles and censure started to collapse. The majority of journalists that received their experience in the USSR could not adapt to the new world. By the beginning of the 1990s, there were, I think, 80–90% new journalists in the media. I think it will inevitably happen in present-day Russia and it is only a matter of time.

Some people think that you have used your status as a public figure with access to the political arena in Ukraine in order to take revenge on Russia to some

extent. What would you say to these people?

People who say these things are complete fools. Does it even make sense to lead a discussion with fools?

I would tell you, though, that

one shouldn’t confuse Russia and its political regime. Russia is my motherland and it didn’t wrong me, so why would I want to take revenge on it? The current government is what I really dislike. I will continue to criticize it, using the language of facts, and will speak out in media that allow me to do so. From time to time I write articles for New Times, I am invited to talk at Dozhd or at Ekho Moskvy whenever I happen to be in Moscow. In 2008 I was unexpectedly invited to work in Kiev – it was a matter of chance because I never looked for a job in Ukraine. I have been living and working here already for 6 years now and the major topic of my shows has been Ukrainian politics. When I had to speak about the Russian situation I talked about it the way I understand, interpret, and assess it. Another thing is that some people allow one way of talking about Russian politics and I would describe it as enthusiastically obsequious. Such people remind me of aardvarks – this is how deeply and thoroughly they lick the Kremlin’s ass.

The most discussed topic in the media today is the future of Ukraine. What are your thoughts?

I think Ukraine sooner or later will join the EU. I am not sure that the Association Agreement will be

signed this year and nobody can claim responsibly what will happen. I am absolutely sure that in 10, 15, 20 years Ukraine will be a full EU member. This is a question of time because the direction was chosen a long time ago and determined by a number of geographical, cultural, political, and economic reasons.

Why do you mention cultural reasons?

Ukraine is not Russia. I think that the wish to be embraced again by mother Muscovy exists only in the heads of rabid outcasts and people of older generations who were not able to adapt to the post-Soviet reality. Moreover, a positive attitude towards Russia is perceived by many mistakenly as a wish to go back to the former Empire. For example, today Americans have very good relations with the British. However, a long time ago English colonists in North America with weapons in their hands fought for independence from the British crown. Later they stopped fighting, reconciled, and became strategic allies and partners. But one would never interpret the friendly attitude of Americans toward the English as the intent of the former to become again part of the British Empire. Similarly, the fact that many Ukrainians still speak Russian, at home and at work, read Russian-speaking publications,

and sometimes watch Russian channels doesn’t mean that they are ready to merge with the mother land led by the KPU (Communist Party of Ukraine), Ukrainian Choice (Another Communist Party of Ukraine) or to follow those fervent journalists who even don’t

consider themselves Ukrainians. If I remember it right they think of themselves as «South Russian» voices.

What does the European choice mean for Ukrainians?

I think it is a choice of a civilization type. As a trivial example, where do Ukrainians go on vacation? To Italy, Greece, France or to Lake Baikal?

But do they understand the difference between going on vocation to Europe and living according to the European standards, which includes paying taxes, cutting out bribes, and ceasing to spit on the ground?

I think they understand. I completely agree with you here. My good old friend always says, «one shouldn’t confuse tourism with migration». It is not very easy to live in the West, and certainly not as a westerner does. But I think a normal human after learning good manners starts feeling differently. After some time people will understand how great it is to live by European norms and standards. One gets used to a good life really fast. I also want to emphasize that a geopolitical choice is not about economics. The history of the country is not about short-term economical gains or losses; it is a choice that will define a

destiny of the country for the next centuries. Every society ultimately chooses to emulate a model that has competitive strengths and attractive prospects.

Ahead of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, the number of publications in which Russia was represented as backward in the Western media has increased. These negative depictions were called «information wars» between Russia and the West. Was there a war?

There is really nothing to represent when it comes to Russia. The country is notorious for its corruption. Russia has a well-established government capitalism «for friends», or what is referred to as crony capitalism. It means that only those businessmen who are close to the political elite in the hierarchy sign the most profitable contracts. Enormous amounts of money are made on the Olympic objects constructions, APEC Summit in Vladivostok, and most certainly the circle of the President’s closest friends (which is known in Russia as club Ozero) are now making money on the preparation for the future World Soccer Championship, which will be held in Russia in 2018. Why is Russia trying so hard to host another international forum or another championship? The answer is simple: these events are easy

to use in order to convert public funds into private capital. Finally, there are the geopolitical interests and motives of the current ruling party and the President. The former hopes to be remembered in the History books as Ivan Kalita of the 21st century, who managed to unite the former territories of Kievan Rus around Moscow. Driven by the same geopolitical interests, the West doesn’t want Russia, which has recently become overtly anti-Western, to strengthen and expand. Zbigniew Brzeziński once said, «there never will be a new Russian Empire without Ukraine» that is why the propaganda machine is in full swing. A big geo-political game is going on, so it is natural that there are information and ideological wars at every frontline. It has always been and will always be this way.

And the last question, once on air at Dozhd, you said that «the devil is not as black as it is painted» describing nationalism in Ukraine. Do you still believe that the political party Svoboda does not constitute a threat to democratic values?

Svoboda is so radical and blatant in its nationalism that it will never get more than a small percentage of national support. The fact that so many people voted for Svoboda during the last presidential

elections can be explained by the wish of many people to vote out of spite against the ruling party. Many of those who voted for Svoboda do not even share its basic ideological claims. To vote «against all» psychologically would mean a desperate gesture, whereas to vote «for» has something, if you want, perversely constructive. On one hand, people were disappointed by the current party and on the other side – by the opposition. In the last decades many European countries witnessed, when in the period of a crisis people were tired and annoyed by the same old politicians who were rotating in turns and as a result, out of nowhere, radical right figures emerged on the political scene. They even became quite popular for a short period of time. This happened in Austria, the Netherlands, France and other countries. I think that Svoboda will be still enjoying significant support in some areas of Western Ukraine and mostly among its village population. Probably its new adherents will appear in Central and Eastern Ukraine but it will remain a party of the minority. Yes, many don’t like it and I am among them. But, you know, as long as this party acts in the framework of a parliamentary democracy, does not promote illegal ideas or slogans, and doesn’t urge the citizens to start a coup, we will have to tolerate its supporters. Well, this is how democracy functions.

EVGENI KISELEV: SOONER OR LATER UKRAINE WILL BE PART OF THE EU

Ahead of the Vilnius Summit, famous political scientist and former TV show host Evgeni Kiselev shared his ideas about the probable outcome of a political tug of war with Ukraine in the middle.

By Maryana Priven

Ukrainian journalism is characterized by uncritical adherence to the opposition

The geopolitical choice of a countryis not defined by economics

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