titre de la présentation comment sortir des politiques de soutien public a la croissance ? institut...

Titre de la présentation

COMMENT SORTIR DES POLITIQUES DESOUTIEN PUBLIC A LA CROISSANCE ?

Institut de l’entreprise12 mars 2010

Philippe D’ARVISENET, Global Chief Economist, Economic Research Department

2| March 2010 |Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

I – CE QU’ONT FAIT LES BANQUES CENTRALES

Similitudes et différences

II – CONSEQUENCES ET RISQUES : l’enjeu de l’exit

III – QUEL EXIT ?


I – CE QU’ONT FAIT LES BANQUES CENTRALES

- Taux- Apports de liquidité Collatéraux Contreparties Maturité Forex

- Intervention sur des segments particuliers des marchés

- Soutien à des institutions spécifiques


graphique 1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Etats-Unis: taux directeur de la FED et inflation, %

sources: Réserve fédérale, BLS

Taux d'inflation, glissement annuel %

Fed Funds (objectif )


graphique 2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Zone euro: taux directeurs et inflation, %

Inflation totale

Taux de refinancement de la BCE

Inflation sous-jacente

sources: Eurostat, BCE

Taux de dépôt de la BCE


tableau 1


tableau 2


tableau 3


graphique 3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Réservefédérale

BCE Banque duJapon

Banqued'Angleterre

BanqueNationale

Suisse

court terme

long terme

Mesures de court terme et de long terme (ou de durée non précisée)

source: OCDE

(en % du PIB de 2007)


graphique 4

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

01-07 07-07 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10

Autres actifs

Actions d'urgence (AIG, Maiden Lane)

Mesures de soutien à certains marchés

Injections de liquidités

MBS et agencies

Treasuries

source: Réserve

Bilan de la FED (milliards USD)


graphique 5

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2007 2008 2009 2010

Autres

Dette publique

Titres émis par les résidents de la Zone euro

Opérations de refinancement à long terme

Principales opérations de refinancement

source: BCE

Ventilation des actifs de la BCE (stocks en milliard EUR)


graphique 6

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Banqued'Angleterre

Réserve fédérale BanqueNationale Suisse

BCE Banque duJapon

Croissance des bases monétaires depuis l'éclatement de la crise, %

(décembre 2009 / moyenne 1er semestre 2007)


II – QUELLES CONSEQUENCES ? QUELS RISQUES ?

- Normalisation des conditions monétaires

- Inflation ?

- Distorsions de prix d’actif et allocation de ressources

- Quid si i < Taylor durablement ?

- Contagion entre marchés d’instruments substituables

- Recorrélations

- Risque de taux et craintes pour l’indépendance des banques centrales


graphique 7

0

100

200

300

400

01-2007 07-2007 01-2008 07-2008 01-2009 07-2009 01-2010

Ecart de taux interbancaire 3mois - OIS 3mois, en points de base

sources: BBA, BCE, Thomson Reuters

US

Zone euro


graphique 8

0

40

80

120

160

200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010sources: Thomson Reuters, Freddie Mac

Etats-Unis: taux hypothécaire 30ans - T.Bond 30ans, points de base


graphique 9

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

aux ménages: créditshypothécaires

aux entreprises

source: BCE (Bank Lending Survey)

(solde de réponses: durcissement-assouplissement, %)

Zone euro: critères de distribution de crédits

aux ménages: crédits à la consommation


graphique 10

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10source: Réserve fédérale (enquêtes Senior Loan Officer)

aux prêts hypothécaires

Etats-Unis: resserrement des conditions d'accès au crédit bancaire

aux grandes et moyennes entreprises

(pourcentage net des banques déclarant durcir les conditions d'accès au crédit)


graphique 11

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

M2

Base monétaire

Etats-Unis: croissance des aggrégats monétaires

source: Réserve fédérale

(glissement annuel %)


graphique 12

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Zone euro: croissance de l'agrégat M3 (gl.annuel, %)

M3

source: BCE

objectif (4,5 %)


graphique 13

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Japon: agrégats monétaires et encours de crédits

M2 + CD

Base monétaire

(glissement annuel, %)

source: BoJ

Encours decrédits bancaires


graphique 14

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

US: output gap et chômage, %

sources: Réserve fédérale, BEA, OCDE

Taux de chômage, %

Output gap, %

périodes de récession

%


graphique 15

7

8

9

10

11

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

sources: Eurostat, OCDE

Output gap, %Taux de chômage, %

Zone euro: output gap et chômage, %


graphique 16

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

sources: BCE, BLS

Zone euro

US/Zone euro: croissance des coûts salariaux unitaires

Etats-Unis

(glissement annuel, %)


graphique 17

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010sources: BCE, Reuters

Zone euro: taux OATei et taux d'inflation, %

Taux d'inflation, %

OATei 10ans : "point mort d'inflation"(anticipation d'inflation à long terme)

Taux d'inflationsous-jacente, %


graphique 18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10sources: *Université du Michigan, Réserve fédérale

Anticipation d'inflation, % :T.Note 10ans - Obligation

indexée sur l'inflation

Confiance des ménages :perspectives des prix pour l'année à venir*

Etats-Unis: perspectives et anticipation des prix

Confiance des ménages :perspectives des prix

pour les 5 années à venir*


III – QUEL EXIT ?

Comment drainer la liquidité ?

- Exit endogène : déjà bien entamé

- Des mesures discrétionnaires nécessaires, mise en œuvre prudente pour les instruments longs (risque de perte et crédibilité de la banque centrale, distorsions…)

- Une gamme d’instruments suffisante : reverse repos, term deposit facility…

- … une tâche moins complexe pour la BCE

- Des modifications dans la conduite de la politique monétaire


graphique 19

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

TauxFed Funds

Taux de chômage

Etats-Unis: taux de chômage et taux Fed Funds, %

sources: BLS, Réserve fédérale


graphique 20

Demande de réserves

Mesures discrétionnaires Réduction automatique

E4 E3

E2

E1

Fonctionnement du marché monétaire et « exit strategy »

Deposit rate

Discount rate

Offre de réserves


graphique 21

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-20

0

20

40

60

80Zone euro: inflation et perception* des ménages sur les prix

Inflation, gl.annuel %

* dans les 12 mois passés

* dans les 12 prochains mois

sources: Eurostat, * Commission européenne


Our publications economic-research.bnpparibas.com

CONJONCTURE focuses each month both on the main economic issues and structural problems.

ECONOMIC MARKET MONITOR provides a detailed follow-up of the economic situation whilst analysing interest and exchange rate developments in OECD countries (8 issues per year).

ECOWEEK focuses on specific and current economic issues (every Friday).

ECOFLASH comments and analyses the main economic events (data releases, economic policy decisions) in the hours following their release.

ECOTV the monthly broadcast programme from BNP Paribas economists. Each month, Philippe d'Arvisenet and his teams will help you to make sense of the economic and financial news in both French and English. These interviews are available on our website.

To receive our publications, please subscribe on our website

BNP Paribas is incorporated in France with Limited Liability. Registered Office 16 boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris.

BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

BNP Paribas London Branch is registered in England and Wales under No. FC13447. Registered Office: 10 Harewood Avenue, London NW1 6AA

Tel: +44 (0)20 7595 2000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7595 2555 www.bnpparibas.com

The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not b e taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates (“collectively “BNP Paribas”) may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and e mployees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (includi ng acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysi s on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.

This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) o r delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

Analyst Certification

Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or i ndirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein.

United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US bro ker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker -dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non -US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”) for the conduct of its designated investment business in the U nited Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons.

Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a securities firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a securities firm registered according to the Securities & Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securitie s (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non -Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch.

Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Inst itution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements.

Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Par ibas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act.

© BNP Paribas (2004). All rights reserved.

titre de la présentation comment sortir des politiques de soutien public a la croissance ? institut...

Documents

philippe darvisenet

global chief economist

global chief economist

banques centrales page

banques centrales similitudes

risque de taux

i taylor

exit endogne