times’ harvest, isp 3360 winter 2005, section 001 class #2: february 25, 2005

Times’ Harvest, ISP 3360

Winter 2005, Section 001

Class #2: February 25, 2005

2/25/05 Time's Harvest, Class 2 2

Bravely into the future… / From The New Yorker


Agenda (hint: it’s too long)• Names• Slow starts• Taking an online class• Review of Syllabus for 3360• Next meetings• Third books• Moodling• Using unchat• Futures Studies, The Third Wave (twice)• Review of Syllabus for 3340


Names• Me: David Bowen

• Check off your name on the sheet

• Pictures – not a requiremento Angela Irelando Jeanine Burrello Kinshasa Hugheso Sandra Williams


Slow Starts

• Many off to a slow start, at least on Moodleo (list in February 11 email)

• I have called all slow starterso Enjoyed discussing course contento Good news: many are doing the reading if not

posting or Essayo Postings: class discussion (*), develop ideas for

Essay, part of grade


Slow Starts

• I have called all slow starterso Some are having problems – do not let this go,

GET HELP (e.g. call me)o Some seem to be “hiding” – please don’t!


Next meetings

6 – 8 PM Friday evenings• March 11 on unchat• April 15 IN 122 Cohn, includes Student

Evaluation of Teaching • April 29 in 122 Cohn, Final Exam for AGS

3340Miss a meeting? Makeup is a one-page summary of the notes


Third Books

• Both are on the shelves at the Barnes and Noble campus bookstore

• ISP 3360. Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, 2004.o Essay questions will be posted.

• ISP 3340. Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 1999.o Quiz/exam questions posted already


Taking an online course

• A lot of working alone (most of course is in writing) but understand when you need help, and get it quicklyo Methods for contacting Instructor

• Do at least something most weeks

• The online discussion will be the most motivating feature – express yourself!


Taking an online course (cont’d)Every week:• Check email, assignment schedule, forums• Reading – active reading. What are you going to

post, applies to what essay topic?• Posting (two posts does not mean two separate

times). This takes the place of class discussion, helps in writing essays

• Thinking about an essay• Passive doesn’t work, be more active…


What counts?• Essays• Postings in Moodle forums (34 total)

o First four special-topic postingso Later postings in Main online discussiono All postings have been good so far

• Attendance at classeso Makeup is a one-page summary of notes, with

any changes from the actual class

• Weekly reports


Useful Moodle Links

What have you turned in on Moodle so far?

Recent Activity• All postings since your last

session• Who is in the chat room


Activity Report

• Under “Administration” on lower lefto Outline: list of all things you have doneo Complete: the things themselves (e.g. the

posting itself)o Logs: what you have done and looked at

• Today only• All – since the beginning of the course


Course stuff in Moodle (cont’d)

• “People” blocko Participants: see list of participants

• Full profile link - this does nothing (privacy?)

o Edit profile

• “Administration” blocko Activity report – everything you have doneo Change your password


Check the (Moodle) Chat

• Under “Recent Activity” block at lower right

• Shows who is in the chat room


Forgot Your Moodle Password?

• No one can get it back for youo What to do – reset it to a new one

• Method 1:o Send me an email with a new password that

you would like to use, and I can change it for you.

o Make sure your name is in the email too! The course helps also


Forgot Your Moodle Password?• Method 2:

o Go to the Moodle login, but enter only your Username. Click on the Login button anyway.

o On the page that appears, down near the bottom left, click on “Send my details via email.”

o Complete the next page and click OK.o Your password will be changed and the new

one will be emailed to you.o This is obviously faster


unchat• A “moderated chat”

o Chat – online discussion, everyone present at the same time (“synchronous”)

o Moderated – One person (the moderator) organizes discussion

• We will use unchat for the third Time’s Harvest class, Friday March 11 6 – 8 PM

• Agenda on course web site beforehand• {Works best if display set to at least 1024 x

768 (see slides 31- 33)}


How to unchat• Go to course web site at http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/thw05• Click on one of the two unchat links

• Click on (the unchatfolks do not like their links to look like buttons)


How to unchat

• Fill in logininformationand click on “LOGIN >>>”o unchat accounts are already set upo Username = first last e.g. david boweno Password = AccessID e.g. aa2012

• You can change this (see next screen) – why? Access ID is not private at WSU

o Password is case-sensitive but not Username


How to unchat

• Under TOPIC LIST,click on Time’sHarvest link.o On this screen, you can change your password

or other information using“EDIT MY PROFILE >>>”

• Under “CURRENT UNCHATS” click on Time’s Harvest link again,then on


How to unchat• Separate unchat window opens, with Rules

on top. Terms for Rules:o Normally must post messages (“Speak”)

through Moderator (David Bowen). This makes it orderly, and so useful for a class.

o Set Moderator: Will not change. Deal with me.o Can “Shout” 1 message past Moderator.o Can “Whisper” privately to another participant.

• Read Rules, close window (see next slide)


How to unchat

Rules window:


How to unchat

2. Your message:speak, shout, whisper

1. Type your message here

3. “Chat space” – messages appear here

[I have a question – Daryl Pace] BOUNCED BACK from moderator with reason: Please be more specfic

[..] – private – only you see this


How to unchat

• Shutting down:o Click on chat window “close box” at top right

o Logout on main unchat window and close browser


unchat Practice Sessions

• Your accounts are already set up

• Try an unchat login in ahead of time

• “Attend” one practice session (10 – 15 minutes should be enough)o Monday February 28, 6 – 7 PMo Friday March 4, 6 – 7 PMo Saturday March 5, 11 AM – Noon


unchat For Real

• Third class, Friday March 11, 6 – 8 PM

• Download Agenda as Word document on course web siteo http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/thw05

• Participate!

• System keeps timed attendance and a transcript


unchat Problems?• Dialup connection quits?

o Just redial your modem. Don’t do anything else.

• Unreliable connection from home?o Go somewhere else! (e.g. campus, WSU Center)

• If you attend a practice & have technical problems on 3/11, you get credit for attending

• I expect to be connecting from home.o 248-549-8518 / [email protected]


unchat: Screen Resolution #1

• You need to see the bottom of the unchat chat window – the SPEAK, SHOUT and WHISPER links.o This works best at a screen resolution of at least

1025 x 768 pixels.o At 800 x 600 pixels, you may have to move the

taskbar at the bottom, to the side of the screen, or drag the chat window up on the screen.

• How to change screen resolution is next



• To change screen resolution, go to “My Computer” and start “Control Panel”o In Windows XP, My Computer is at the Start

buttono In Windows 2000 and earlier, this is a desktop

icon

• In Control Panel,double-click “Display”



• Click on “Settings” tab and drag slider

• Click OK (screen goes dark for a second)

• On Monitor Settings popup, click “Yes” if it looks OK.


Content!

• Background

• Facts (or at least I think they are facts)

• Hypothesis

• Quibbles (one way to escape the Conclusions below)

• Application or Conclusions: the kicker(Iraq)


Background: Futures Studies• Foundations:

o “I will go to Traverse City” – statements about the future may or may not come true. Their present truth is unknowable, better seen as statement of present intent

o A fan of futures – Futures Studieso Forecasting, not prediction of a specific evento Possible, probably, preferable futureso Latin: facta are past events, Vs futurao From Bertrand de Jouvenal, The Art of

Forecasting (1967).


Background: The $1 Economy

• Demonstration

• If economy produces what we want, we are all better off

• Hesitation, doubt economic pain

• Must have confidence in the market, may require self-regulation or government regulation


Background:The Third Wave

• Compare stages of societyo Look for trends

• Characteristics of hunter-gatherer society are highly uncertain

• Compare Agricultural and Industrial society

• Futuring extends this to Third Wave


Background: Toffler’s Spheres

Alvin Toffler, Previews and Premises (1984)1. Techno-sphere (includes energy, production,

distribution)

2. Socio-sphere (includes family, social institutions)

3. Info-sphere (communication)

4. Bio-sphere

5. Power-sphere (government and authority)

6. Psycho-sphere (relationships, intimacy, inner life)

Rough picture, culture cuts across all


Facts: Comparison #1

Aspect of Society

Agricultural Industrial

Type of government

What gives government the

right to rule?

Foundation of government



Aspect of Society


Why get married?

Children per couple

Family structure



Aspect of Society


How do things work?

Status of women, minorities

Science / Technology

Relationship



Aspect of Society


Range of travel

Social mobility

Literacy



Aspect of Society


Basis for wealth

Production is for

Use of money



Aspect of Society


Workplace

Work output is for

Distribution of wealth



Aspect of Society


Typical life span

Type of Religion

Status of judiciary


Hypothesis: What is Going On?• “Structuration Theory” by Anthony

Giddens, Sociology

• Society as individuals creates new institutions

• New institutions constrain individuals

• Example: caro Popular, led to roads, led to sprawlo Now we have to have cars


Hypothesis: So what?

• Whole basis of society changedo Probably impossible to “put yourself in their

shoes”

• Trend is towards more individual autonomyo Increase in activity, production and prosperityo Because we can get what we want

• The Third Wave has lasted so long because this is what Toffler concentrated on


Hypothesis: So what?

• Whole basis of society changedo Probably impossible to “put yourself in their

shoes”o Impossible for earlier stages to imagine our

new choices that they don’t haveo Impossible for us to forget that we have the

new choices

• Not an empty theory – implications for Iraq


Quibbles

• Not a smooth ride like an elevator - conflicto Changing the rules of lifeo Direction and interaction of trends often not

clear

• Not lock step – sectors jostle aroundo Can we just change one sector - Iraq

• Backsliding, e.g. Russia

• Great variety in style – culture


Quibbles• Hunter-gatherer, agricultural and industrial

societies still exist. If fact, they account for the large majority of earth’s populationo Also within each stage, but transformed – hand-

made boots

• Many wrong guesses about the futureo Early guesses about the role of computers

• Number

• Use


Quibbles

• Plateaus or continuous change?o Could be a combination


Conclusions #1 (Iraq)

• One attitude is “cultural relativity” – all cultures and stages are equally valid.

• My conclusion is that the later stages are better ethically because people are treated as individualso NOT that the people are fundamentally any

different- they are noto It’s “the system” – the social arrangements



• Good: the hypothesis says it is a worthy goal to bring Iraq from an agricultural society to an industrial society

• But: the hypothesis also says it is impossible to change only one aspect (strong-man to democracy)



• The hypothesis says:o We might be able to change Iraq to a better

industrial society by changing their whole society

o If we try to change only one aspect (strong-man to democracy), we will fail


The Third Wave

• Each stage is different, but is the reality for those living it, a complete change (more later). Each wave grips those inside it.

• Toffler: transitions are not orderly but full of conflict. The rules change (example)

• What did Toffler get right? DB: autonomy or increased choice, and results - individuation


The Third Wave

• What did Toffler get wrong (at least so far)?o Some examples – Jennifer Levine has pointed

out that there is less of a generation gap now than what Toffler wrote about

• “What is a family” is still a source of social conflict

o Bigger is “small is beautiful” ideas applied to businesses

• Where physical distribution or service is required, consolidation continues


Trends?• Being (electronically) connected• Technological convergence• Biological intervention and engineering

o Cosmetic surgery (genetic change?)o “Copy and paste” across species all new

• Cognitive scienceo Understanding uniquenesso Controlling mental life

• More choices, more autonomy


Trends?• Family change• Disintermediation

o Intermediary – distributor

• Science driving technology – “knowledge society”


Issues• Physical consumption – “the human

footprint”

• Individual responsibility Vs “safety net”

• “Race to the bottom” Vs “floating all boats”

• International governanceo Autonomy of national governments not

absoluteo Coordination to solve problems


Issues• Privacy, identity, control over personal

informationo DNA banks

• Will US pull back from innovation?• Gender identity / roles• Free innovation Vs social controls?

o Would controls (e.g. making human cloning illegal) work?

• Interplay of interdisciplinarity and disciplinarity

The End

times’ harvest, isp 3360 winter 2005, section 001 class #2: february 25, 2005

Documents

notes times harvest

activetimes harvest

coursetimes harvest

gradetimes harvest

passwordtimes harvest

alreadytimes harvest

place of class discussion

new yorkertimes harvest