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First it’s exit the corn laws (1846); then it’s Brexit (2016);

now what?

Tim LangCentre for Food Policy, City University London

t.lang@city.ac.uk

Food Thinkers, Food Research Collaboration, London, October 26, 2016www.foodresearch.org.uk

Talk summary • Brexit is ‘big league’ food policy change

– Corn Laws 1846, WW1, WW2, joining CAP• It comes just when evidence for food system

change was overwhelming– Environment, health, socio-culture, economics

• Risks from Brexit and to Brexiters• Risks to progressive food agenda

– Can we get a Great Transition not an erosion?• Cool heads + firm resolve + narrative needed

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Quick take 1: where we are

• Signals in the ‘phoney war’• Contradictory narratives• Risks from Brexit• Risks to Brexiters• Risks to progressive agenda

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Quick take 2: where we could be

• What food system ought to be• Need for integrationist framework• Institutional structures• Brexit is a disruptive opportunity

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Quick take 3: Priorities

• SDG2 strategy:– Sustainable Diets from a (more)

Sustainable Food System• Modernising food democracy (food

power)• Narrowing food inequalities• Decent jobs and wages• Continue improving UK food

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Brexit in context

Some background

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This is major food system change• Serious change after 50 yrs European linkage:

– 1966-73 negotiations; ‘73 entry; ‘75 referendum• Corn Laws 1846 (after 20+ yrs):

– Cheap food policy; agric decline; Empire• World War 1 & 2:

– Submarines; insecurity; weak UK; • Post WW2 reconstruction:

– global, Europe, UK UK 1947 Agric Act, etc etc– UK in decline – loss of Empire, identity?

• GATT WTO: 1987-94– Codex Alimentarius Commission as arbiter

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Hot Springs Conference 1943

source: LSE digital library (a) photo: UK delegation; (b) drawing

of Lionel Robbins; US cartoon from Lynchberg News 23.5.1943

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Food architects: Linking food, health, work, income & justice

John Boyd Orr (1880-1971)

public health researcher1st D-G of FAO

Sicco Mansholt (1908-1995)

1st European AgricultureCommissioner for 1958-1972

Political pressures from Food Brexit

UK societyUK food system

Facing C21st challenges

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Immediate political pressures• Tensions ‘consumers’ vs ‘voters’:

– migrants, prices, holidays, culture, control.• Timing:

– Speed; MS elections; £-$-€ effects• Global crowded space:

– EU 27, G20, TTIP, CETA– MidEast, resources (eg phosphates Morocco 75%)

• EU pressures: – DGs Sante & Agri want it over speedily – Others want to use Brexit for reform: Visigrad Grp

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Political Economy of Food• Divided UK:

– London = 25%, areas in EU fund receipt voted out,• Economy after 40 yrs of neo-liberalism• UK food in decline:

– 61% self-sufficient and dropping – Food Trade Gap risen to £21bn

• Cheap food• Big health bill

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Europe in some disarray?• Decades of anti-europeanisation• Inept handling of migration, despite it

being a priority for EU• Decades of expansion slowing?

– Case of Turkey?

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The policy language

ControlFreedom

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Brexit discourse (in part)Issue specifics Debate ranges from….. …. To…Brexit Process Article 50 start-date Soon Delayed   Process itself Quick Protracted   Outcome 2 years on ‘Hard’ exit, ie total exit ‘soft’ exit ie new mix

Managing the process Uncertainty Opportunism Brexit Agenda Labour movement

within EUQuotas /points Open labour deal

  Migration beyond EU Repatriation, controls, quotas Desirable, amnesty, racist  Finance City of London passport City goes non-EU global  Culture British above all New globalism  Democracy External facing Intra-UK restructuring (UK break-

up? Or more devolution Cities?)  Governance Taking back control New era of intergovernmental

negotiation (WTO = 164 MS)Food System impact Endgame Business-as-usual food

systemMore sustainable food system

  Farming Still subsidised No subsidy for farming per se (perhaps for ecosystems services)

Efficiency Disruption Productivity incentive  Cost of food Still ‘cheap’ More expensive  Food flow / availability Loss of fresh food from EU Rebirth of UK horticulture and

primary production  Consumer contentment High visibility of ‘taking back

control’Triumph for Big Food Business

  Food and healthcare NHS has more money(?) Prevention of diet-related ill-healthFood inequalities Ignored / invisible Will widen / hit the poor 15

State of UK food

Some key statisticsThe country doesn’t feed itself

The food trade gap is wide (£21bn)Currency rates matter (if you buy/sell)

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Dollar or Euro: which will UK use for food?

Volatility: € rises, £ falls (2013-16) Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/pound-tumbles-to-three-decade-low-as-angst-over-brexit-persists 17

The long view: 1848 to 2016Financial Times, October 12 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/78478eee-e170-32d3-bdbb-b88a98f2f9bd

17% drop in £ to $ since Brexit

Where UK food comes fromSource: Defra Food Stats Pocketbook 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/food-statistics-pocketbook

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Huge Food

Trade Gapsource: Defra Food Stats

Pocketbook 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/c

ollections/food-statistics-pocketbook

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• Trade deficit of £21 bn (2015).. .and steadily widening..• Beverages in surplus “largely due to Scotch Whisky”• Fruit & Veg imports £9.1bn; exports £1 bn; gap=£8.1bn

– 2 EU countries account for 69% of all Veg imports; 4 countries for 44% of Fruit imports

• Massive meat imports Note: Current Government policy is simply to export more

UK food chain 2015 chart 14.2 p98 Defra

Agriculture in UK 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agriculture-

in-the-united-kingdom-2015

Note: 1. UK food has gross

value added of £105bn

2. Farming gets c8.5% of GVA

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Lots of land but mostly grass

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Source: Defra horticulture statistics July 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/540165/hort-report-22jul16a.pdf

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Food trade gap Note the £bn vs £m

23Source: Defra horticulture statistics July 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/540165/hort-report-22jul16a.pdf

The realities

Disruption and deviationComplexity of negotiations

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How will Brexit affect existing food system dynamics?

• Historical legacy: – pursuit of ‘cheap’, urbanism, off-land power

• Post WW2 food revolution:– Inputs vs farm vs Manuf vs retail vs foodservice– Power and money share

• Rise of consumerism: – food other spending

• Counter forces:– Enviro + health + animals + localism + int justice

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Planetary Boundaries already exceeded?Source: Steffen et al. 2015. Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a

changing planet, Nature, 347, 6223

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Whitehall’s food brexit in-tray• EU inheritance

– Scale of EU Food Law– Multi MS food institutions: EFSA, DG Sante,

WTO negotiations, etc – European Parliament co-responsibility

• How to address this?– New Food Law (England only?)– Weak Codex Alimentarius (created 1963, GATT

1994)27

Key institutions to replace• Council of Ministers• European Parliament• European Commission• DG Environment• DG Sante• DG Trade• DG Research & Innovation

• EFSA• Fd & Vet Office (now

Health & Food Audit)• Rapid Alert System• Euro Medicines Agency• Joint Research Centre

Etc.

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Sensitive issues at stake

Across entire food supply chainAt time of UK state cuts!

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Sensitive issues at stake

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SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK ‘partner’ UK OPTIONS (realistic)

Fisheries / Sea

Fisheries Common Fisheries Policy

Defra / Wales, Scottish, N Ireland governments

Reclaim fishing rights; go line fishing only?

  Inland seafood (mussel and oyster farming etc.)

Water quality control Defra / Wales, Scottish, N Ireland governments

Expand industries (employment)

Agriculture Farmland Directives on water, biodiversity (not one on soil!)

Defra / Wales, Scottish, N Ireland governments

Retain or translate into new UK law

  Subsidies CAP subsidies HM Treasury Repeal / Reduce/ Retain/ Refine

  Labour (seasonal + specialist eg dairy managers)

Free movement within MS

Defra and BIS Renew SAWS; training;

  Agrichemicals Regulated Defra Go organic; LEAF or intensify

  GM EU legislation 2001ff Defra Repeal / Retain / Refine

  Veterinarians EU regulated; membership of Food & Veterinary Office

Defra; Dept Health; Public Health England

New audit function needed

  Animal health EU Animal Health Law 2015

Defra; Dept Health; Public Health England

Opportunity to tighten standards?

Antimicrobials EU role currently weak

Defra; Public Health England

UK could set tougher controls on farm use 31

SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK ‘partner’ UK OPTIONS (realistic)

Food manufacture

Abattoirs Meat inspection toughened post BSE / Food Safety White Paper 2000

Defra; Public Health England

Invest in new localised system? retain or translate inspections into UK law

  Additives Approval system FSA and DH Repeal / Retain / Refine or translate to UK law

  Residues & contaminants

EU fixes all Maximum Residue Limits

FSA, DH & Defra Repeal / Retain / Refine or translate to UK law

  Nutrition & health claims

Food Regulations eg public register

Defra; Public Health England

Repeal / Retain / Refine

  Food labelling Food labelling Regs 2014

Defra; Public Health England; Dept for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

Retain / refine

  Rapid Alert System for Food & Feed

EU MS food safety collaboration, eg recalls

Defra; Public Health England; Dept for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

New infrastructure?

  Food law enforcement

UK system of Environmental Health Practitioners (EHP) sits alongside continental use of veterinarians

Defra; Public Health England; Dept for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

UK to revert to EHP only?

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Cross-cutting issues

EconomicsResearch

Governance and law

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Cross-cutting issues: examplesSECTOR ISSUE EU element UK OPTIONS

Economics Internal Market Single Market 1992 Pay to stay in but out; drawbridge; sector by sector agreements (eg City/Finance ‘in’; food ‘out’?)

  Harmonisation of services

Free movement of services, public procurement, professional qualifications, industrial property,

Likely to be part of package above

  Economic concentration and market power

Competition on EU basis Redraw geographical boundaries for markets

  Food Waste Circular economy action plan 2015

Continue? expand?

Research EU research Eligibility to Horizon 2020 and Joint Research Centre;

Exclusion from EU research partnerships; or membership

  Big Data EU Digital Single Market  

  Digital market Digital Single Market 2016 Maintain EU ‘follow the money’ principle OR revert to WTO baseline

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Cross-cutting issues (cont)SECTOR ISSUE EU element UK OPTIONS

Legal Intellectual Property Rights IPR Directives 2004 and 2016

 WIPO?

  Public sector contracts EU policy on tendering  UK system or DAs?

Governance Health and Food Audits Co-ordinated by DG Health & Food Safety on all MS (formerly known as Food & Veterinary Office)

UK sets up its own scheme, but done by whom?

  Devolved administrations Committee of the Regions created in 1994; collaboration of Mayors etc; Principles of Subsidiarity and Proportionality ratified by Lisbon Treaty

more devolved food powers?

  Parliamentary oversight Euro Parliament has standing committees; some in parallel to UK committees.

Reform UK committees around whichever general Brexit framework emerges (WTO as baseline)

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Whitehall food realities• Apply a ‘Star Chamber’ ‘7 Rs rule’?

– Retain, Reduce, Replace, Reform, Refine, Reject, Redirect

• Institutional weakness:– Already buying in ‘advisors’:

• Sir Jeremy Heywood talks to EY, McKinsey, KPMG etc– A ‘new’ centralisation:

• i.e. duplicate Brussels in London– More decentralisation:

• more powers to DAs, City Regionalism?38

ScenariiLang & Schoen 2016 had 7; now see 3

1. Reformed EU2. Bespoke relationship (EEA+)3. Global trader (WTO baseline)

http://foodresearch.org.uk/food-and-brexit/ 39

Choices, choices: the food politics of Food Brexit… as if…

• …as if citizens, health, environment, justice were top priorities?

• …as if evidence matters?• …as if Sustainable Development Goals

matter?• …as if cheap food is what matters? (1846)• …as if Big Food interests matter? • …as if narrowing inequalities came top?

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1. Stay in (reformed) EU • Likelihood:

– 1% chance on June 24; 5% in Oct?– may not be if EU politics trembles in 2017ff

• eg … if a radical shift on migration occurs.

• What it means: – Heavy politics, shift in middle ground

•  Events:– UK election 2020 (earlier?), 2 years of big politics– Depends on EU MS elections: Italy 2016, Fr & G

2017, Sp 2017?41

2. Bespoke EU-UK ‘special food relationship’

• Likelihood: – less than 30% chance– Favoured by City interests, and 48% Remainers

• What it means:– Years of negotiations, Customs Union case by case

• Events:– Mrs May hint (Oct 24 ‘16– But conflict of freedom of movement of goods and

people (Juncker’s warnings, Sept 14, ‘16)42

3. Global trader• Likelihood:

• most likely 75%; favoured by hard Brexiters• What it means:

• WTO baseline, Codex replaces EU, pick/mix deals• Fruit &lamb from USA and Aus/NZ again? Scottish?

• Events:• do a New Zealand: cut subsidies, ignore small farms,

import more• will the old Empire/Commonwealth food provisioners

welcome the UK back?43

Making the best of Frexit

Our priorities Role of academics and CSOs

Unholy alliancesInformation flow

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My priorities (3 mins with Minister)• Food Production

– Rebuild home growing, less intensive, more agro-ecology, more horticulture, less food imperialism (others’ land),

• Sustainable diets– More equal food, narrow gastronomes vs low income diets,

low impact (not just CO2e), reverse obesity, rein in Big Food, higher paid food labour, less waste

• Food democracy– institutional reforms, English regionalism, city regions, local

identity

= SDG2 strategy: – sustainable diets from sustainable food systems 45

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Thanks!

t.lang@city.ac.uk