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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
1 | P a g e
Nguyn Thanh Tm - TF-K35, 23/8/2012
TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM
MN TH TRNG CHNG KHON PHI SINH
NGY 23 THNG 8 NM 2012 Nhm TF_K35_hc phn
th trng chng khon phi sinh
Ti :
TH YT H P NG
K HN
H v Tn n v
Nguyn Thanh Tm TF02 K35
V Kim Nguyn TF02 K35
Nguyn Duy Thi TF01 K35
V Phng Dim TF01 K35
Trn c Hiu CK02 K35
Nguyn Trng Nht TF01 K35
I NI
Vit Nam giao dch hi oi k hn chnh thc ra i t khi Ngn hng Nh nc
ban hnh Quy ch hot ng giao dch hi oi km theo Quyt nh s
17/1998/Q-NHNN7 ngy 10 thng 01 nm 1998, nhng n nay nhu cu giao dch loi hp
ng ny vn cha nhiu. L do, mt mt, l khch hng vn cha am hiu lm v loi giao
dch ny. Mt khc, do c ch iu hnh t gi ca Ngn hng Nh nc trong sut thi gian
qua kh n nh theo hng VND gim gi t t so vi ngoi t khuyn khch xut khu
nhng vn m bo n nh i vi hot ng nhp khu. Chnh l do ny khin cc nh
xut khu khng cm thy lo ngi ngoi t xung gi khi k kt hp ng xut khu nn
khng c nhu cu bn ngoi t k hn. V pha nh nhp khu, tuy ngoi t c ln gi so vi
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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VND khin nh nhp khu lo ngi, nhng s ln gi ca ngoi t vn c Ngn hng Nh
nc gi mc c th kim sot c nn nh nhp khu vn cha thc s cn giao dch k
hn qun l ri ro t gi. Tuy nhin, trong tng lai khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO v dn
dn hi nhp ti chnh vi quc t th Ngn hng Nh Nc s bt dn can thip vo th
trng ngoi hi, khi y ri ro t gi ng lo ngi v nhu cu giao dch hi oi k hn s gia
tng. Do vy, cc ngn hng v cng ty xut nhp khu nn lm quen vi loi giao dch ny
cng sm cng tt.
Nhm mc ch tm hiu v lm r hn vn nghin cu v hp ng k hn ny, nhm
em xin trnh by ti: l thuyt hp ng k hn
Khi nghin cu l thuyt Forward phi gii quyt mt s vn i lin quan n l thuyt
forward sau:
Lch s hnh thnh ca hp ng k hn nh th no?
Khi nim v th trng k hn v hp ng k hn?
c im v tnh cht ca hp ng k hn?
u v nhc im ca hp ng k hn?
Forward c mua bn Th trng no?V n c thc hin nh th no?
nh gi hp ng k hn nh th no?
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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MC LC
LI NI U
Phn 1:
thuyt v th trng k hn v hp ng k hn
I. ch s hnh thnh:
II. Khi qut v hp ng k hn:
1. Khi ni m :
1.1 Khi ni m Th trng k hn:
1.2 Khi ni m hp ng k hn:
2. Phn loi
III. c im v mc ch ca hp ng k hn:
1. c im.
2. Mc ch
IV. u v nhc im ca hp ng k hn:
1. u im
2. Nhc im
V. i tng tham gia v cc loi giao dch trn th trng k hn.
1. i tng tham gia th trng k hn.
2. Cc loi giao dch trn th trng k hn.
VI. Nhng mt tch cc v hn ch ca th trng k hn.
PHN 2:
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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Nguyn Thanh Tm - TF-K35, 23/8/2012
TH YT V NH GI M T H P NG K HN
I. NH GI K HN gi p dng ti ngy thanh ton H) :
1. Gi k hn cho ti sn u t kh ng c thu nh p
2. Gi k hn i v i ti sn u t it tr c thu nh p
3. Ga k hn i v i ti sn u t it tr c c tc
II. NH GI H P NG K HN
1. i nhu n t hp ng k hn
2. C ng thc nh gi
TNG KT
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Phn 1:
L thuyt v th trng k hn v hp ng k hn
I. Lch s hnh thnh:
Cui th k XIX, Nng sut ngnh nng nghip tng cao, sn phm nng nghip
d tha,vic tiu th rt kh khn;
Nm 1848, ti Chicago,Hi ng mu dch k hn thnh lp mt reung tm giao
dch mua bn nng phm theo phng thc mua bn trc giao nhn hng sau, theo cc k hn,
gi l s giao dch hng ha k hn (Chicago board Of Exchange CBOE).
Thi k u CBOE giao dch ng cc, v sau c thm cc n gia sc, sn phm
ng lnh, u th k XX c thm chng khon, ngoi t v vng.
Tng quan th gii (2010)
Th gii hin c trn 70 SGD hng ha k hn;
Mt hng giao dch ph bin:
- Nng sn, giao dch ti 41 SGD.
- Nng lng v ha cht, giao dch ti 32 SGD,
- Kim loi , vng kim cng, giao dch ti 26 SGD,
Quy m:
o Bc m 7 t hp ng,
o Chu Thi Bnh Dng 5 t hp ng,
o Chu u 4,2 t hp ng,
o Cc chu lc cn li 0,6 t hp ng
II. Khi qut v hp ng k hn:
1. Khi ni m :
1.1 khi ni m Th trng k hn:
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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Th trng hng ha k hn l nhng trung tm giao dch mua bn cc ti sn c s
hng ha, chng khon v cc cng c u t ti chnh, theo phng thc u gi cnh
tranh, hnh thnh cc hp ng mua bn k hn, l nhng cam kt mua / bn trc, giao
/ nhn hng sau, vi s lng, gi c v thi gian n nh.
1.2 Khi ni m hp ng k hn:
Hp ng k hn l hp ng mua hay bn mt s lng nht nh n v ti sn c s
mt thi im xc nh trong tng lai theo mt mc gi xc nh ngay ti thi im tha thun
hp ng.
Thi im xc nh trong tng lai gi l: ngy thanh ton hp ng hay ngy
o hn.
Thi gian t khi k hp ng n ngy thanh ton gi l k hn ca hp ng.
Gi xc nh p dng trong ngy thanh ton hp ng gi l gi k hn.
Ti thi im k kt hp ng k hn, khng h c s trao i ti sn c s hay thanh ton
tin. Hot ng thanh ton xy ra trong tng lai ti thi im xc nh trong hp ng. Vo lc
, hai bn tho thun hp ng buc phi thc hin ngha v mua bn theo mc gi xc
nh, bt chp gi th trng lc l bao nhiu i na.
C 2 loi:
hp ng mua: ngi c hp ng mua l ngi mua
hp ng bn: ngi c hp ng l ngi bn.
Giao dch k hn c rt nhiu trong cuc sng hng ngy:
VD: Vo ngy 1/5/2011, A k hp ng k hn mua ca B 10 tn cafe vi k hn 5
thng (tc l vo ngy 1/10/2011) vi gi 100USD/tn. B c gi l ngi bn trong hp
ng k hn, A l ngi mua trong hp ng k hn. Sau 5 thng B phi bn cho A 10 tn
cafe vi gi 100USD/tn v A phi mua 10 tn caf ca B vi gi , cho d gi cafe trn
th trng sau 5 thng l bao nhiu i na.
2. Phn loi:
Da vo c im ca loi ti sn c s chia hp ng k hn thnh 3 loi:
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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o Hp ng k hn v hng ha: Hp ng k hn l tha thun, theo bn bn cam kt
giao v bn mua cam kt nhn hng ho ti mt thi im trong tng lai theo hp ng.
o Hp ng k hn v tin t: Hp ng ngoi hi k hn l giao dch hai bn cam kt s
mua, bn vi nhau mt lng ngoi t theo mt mc t gi xc nh v vic thanh ton s c
thc hin vo thi im xc nh trong tng lai.
o Hp ng k hn v chng khon: Ti Vit Nam c dch v mua bn chng khon k
hn y khng phi l mt hp ng k hn v chng khon.
III. c im v mc ch ca hp ng k hn:
1. c im:
Giao dch v thc hin hp ng hai thi gian tch bit .
Ch c hai bn tham gia vo vic k kt v t tha thun vi nhau da trn nhng
c tnh c nhn (Gi c t ra mang tnh c nhn v ch quan)
khng c hy b H n phng m phi c s tha thun ca 2 bn.
Mi bn phi c trch nhim thc hin hp ng vo ngy o hn cho d c s
chnh lch gi trn th trng.
Trong thi gian hiu lc, ngi mua c th bn hp ng mua cho ngi th 3,
ngi th ba c th bn li cho nhng ngi sau ; ngi bn c th mua li hp ng bn ,
chm dt v th.
Ri ro thanh ton s tng ln khi mt trong hai bn khng thc hin hp ng.
Hp ng k hn c giao dch trn th trng phi tp trung(OTC).
2. Mc ch:
Hp ng k hn c s dng phng nga ri ro, v d nh ri ro mt gi tin
t (hp ng k hn i vi USD hoc EUR). S ri ro bin ng gi mt loi hng ho no
(hp ng k hn vi du m).
Hp ng k hn c s dng u c
IV. u v nhc im ca hp ng k hn:
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1. IM:
- HKH c s dng phng nga ri ro: ri ro t gi tin t, ri ro bin ng gi c
mt loi hng ho, chng khon no .
Vd : KH c nhu cu chi tr hoc c cc khon phi thu trong tng lai thit lp HKH
c nh t gi.
- HKH c thit k linh hot p ng nhu cu ca c 2 bn c v quy m giao dch
v ngy giao k hn, khng c tiu chun ho (khng c tho thun c th, s lng c th
vo 1 ngy o hn c th trong tng lai), mang tnh cht tho thun c nhn. Cc hp ng k
hn c th c tho ra vi mt hng ho bt k, khi lng, cht lng, thi gian giao hng bt
k, theo tho thun chung gia hai bn bn v mua.
To s linh hot cho 2 bn tham gia, tit kim chi ph, cho php th trng thch ng
mt cch nhanh chng vi cc thay i trong nhu cu ca 2 bn.
- Ngi tham gia HKH khng chu ri ro v l i sut.
- Tnh cnh tranh cao.
2. NH C IM:
- HKH khng th b hy b n phng m khng c s tha thun ca c hai i tc.
Giao dch k hn l giao dch bt buc, chu rng buc php l cht ch
Khi o hn d bt li 2 bn vn phi thc hin H, tr khi 2 bn tho thun hy H
(mi bn phi chp nhn ri ro tn dng ca bn kia, mc gi t ra mang tnh c nhn v ch
quan nn rt c th khng chnh xc) . y c ng l nhc im l n nht ca hp ng k hn.
- Khng c s iu chnh t gi theo th trng hng ngy do NH khng yu cu k qu
chnh thc hoc nu c th khon k qu khng c iu chnh hng ngy (quyt ton l i/l khi
n hn).
- Ri ro v n (default risk) : v khng c thanh ton hng ngy nn ri ro rt ln c th
xy ra nu nh mt bn tham gia H tht bi trong vic thc hin H, khng c g m bo
khng bn no hy b cc ngha v H khi chnh lch qu ln gia TGGN v TGKH ngy n
hn HKH.
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Th trng chng khon phi sinh FORWARD CONTRACT
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- HKH ch p ng c nhu cu khi no KH ch cn mua/bn ngoi t trong tng lai,
m khng c nhu cu hin ti. Tuy nhin trn thc t i khi KH c nhu cu mua/bn ngoi t
c hin ti v tng lai. Lc ny HKH cha th p ng c nhu cu v c thay th bng
cc hp ng hon i.
- Thiu tnh lng (lack of liquidity), bn bn rt kh tm c i tc c cng s thch vi
mnh, nu c tm c th HKH rt d b i tc p gi do kh nng tm kim thm mt i tc
trn th trng i hi chi ph cao.
- Chi ph giao dch thng cao, giao dch phi ln. V vy thng ch thch hp vi cc
cng ty ln.
V. i tng tham gia v cc loi giao dch trn th trng k hn.
1. i tng tham gia th trng k hn.
Ngi bo h gi: l ngi sn xut v tiu th sn phm, mc ch t c
gi mua bn tt nht.
Ngi u t: l nhng ngi mua bn hp ng kim li t gi, l hnh ng
u t c n by ti chnh cao, nhng mo him (nh cc vi th trng).
L nhn t kt ni mi lin h tng tc, cng sinh hon ho gia ngi mun tranh ri
ro vi ngi chp nhn ri ro.
L nhn t duy tr giao dch lin tc ca th trng.
Trn thc t ngi u c v ngi bo h gi tm kim li nhn t nhau.
2. Cc loi giao dch trn th trng k hn.
Giao dch s cp: giao dch ca nhng ngi bo h gi, a hng thm nhp th
trng, hnh thnh cc hp ng k hn.
Giao dch th cp: nhng giao dch mua i bn li cc hp ng k hn.
Trn th trng k hn 99% l giao dch th cp, giao dch th cp a phn l ca ngi
u t.
VI. Nhng mt tch cc v hn ch ca th trng k hn.
Cn bng quan h cung cu hng ha trn h trng v nh hng sn xut.
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Bo h gi cho ngi sn xut v ngi tiu th hng ha.
Cng c u tu mo him, c n by ti chnh cao, nhung khng hon ho.
T hnh thnh nn nhng loi hp ng phi sinh khc.
PHN 2:
TH YT V NH GI M T H P NG K HN
I. NH GI K HN gi p d ng ti ng thanh ton :
K hi u:
T: thi gian giao hng ca hp ng k hn
S0: gi giao ngay ca ti sn gi hi n ti)
r: l li sut phi ri ro.
F0 : l gi k hn.
F : gi k vng.
I : l hi n gi ca khon thu nh p it tr c ca ti sn u t.
q : l mc li sut trung nh nm ca ti sn u t
K : gi pht hnh
f : Gi tr ca hp ng k hn vo h m nay
1. Gi k hn cho ti sn u t khng c thu nhp:
Chng khon khng tr c tc v tri phiu khng c l i l nhng v d ca nhng ti sn
u t khng c thu nhp.
Xt mt hp ng k hn trn ti sn u t khng c li nhun vi gi S0
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Chi ph ban u ca nh u t thc hin chin lc l S0. Hp ng k hn yu cu ti
sn c s phi c trao i vi gi k hn vo thi im T. Gi k hn phi l gi m S0 s tng
nu u t vi l i sut phi ri ro k hn T. Ngha l :
F0 = S0(1+r)T
Nu gi k hn F0 > S0(1+r)T th nh mua bn song hnh c th mua ti sn v k hp ng k hn bn i vi ti sn .
Nu gi k hn F0 > S0(1+r)T h c th bn ti sn v k kt hp ng k hn di hn cho ti sn .
V d :
Xt mt hp ng forward di hn mua bn mt c phiu khng chi tr c tc trong 3
thng.
Gi s gi c phiu hin ti S0 = $ 40 v Li sut phi ri ro r = 5% .
Xc nh gi k hn:
F0 = 40(1+0.05)3/12 =40.5 $.
C 2 trng hp x ra
TH 1: gi s gi k hn mc cao l 43$ ( ln hn S0(1+r)T=40,5)
Nh u t nn va $ 40 vi mc li sut phi ri ro 5% mua 1 c phiu v k mt hp
ng k hn bn c phiu trong 3 thng. Sau 3 thng, nh u t n s bn c phiu n v
nhn c $ 43
li nhun= $43.00 40.5$=2,5$, sau 3 thng.
T 2: Gi s gi k hn tng i thp mc 39$ (nh hn S0(1+r)T=40,5)
Nh mua bn nn bn khng mt c phiu mc 5%/nm v mua mt hp ng k hn 3
thng.
=> Li nhun= $40.50-39$=1,5$, sau 3 thng.
2. Gi k hn i vi ti sn u t bit trc thu nhp :
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Ti sn u t bit trc thu nhp l nhng ti sn u t em li cho ngi nm gi chng mt khon thu nhp hon ton c th d on trc. V d c phiu bit c mc c tc phi tr v tri phiu chu l i sut
C ng thc nh gi
F0 = (S0-I)*(1 + r)T
* Nu F0 > (S0 I)(1+r)T, cc nh u t c th c li nhun bng cch mua ti sn u t v k hp ng k hn bn ti sn u t
* Nu F0 < (S0 I)(1+r)T, cc nh u t c th c li nhun bng cch bn khng ti sn u t v k mt hp ng k hn mua ti sn u t .
V d :
- Gi 1 c phiu: 200,000
- L i sut phi ri ro: 7%/nm
- C tc c chia 3,000 trn mi c phn sau 3 thng, 6 thng, 9 thng
- Hp ng k hn 10 thng
- I l hin gi ca c tc:
* I = 3,000(1+0.07)-3/12+3,000(1+0.07)-6/12+3,000(1+0.07)-9/12 = 8,701.458188
- Vi T l 10 thng th:
F0 = (200,000-8,701.458188)(1+0.07)10/12 = 202,394.2364
Nu nh gi k hn < 202,394.2364/1cp th cc nh u t nn bn khng c phiu v k mt hp ng k hn 10 thng mua c phiu.
Nu nh gi k hn > 202,394.2364/1 cp th nn mua c phiu ngay v k mt hp ng k hn 10 thng bn c phiu.
3. Gi k hn i vi ti sn u t bit trc c tc :
C tin t v ch s chng khon c th c xem nh l ti sn u t bit trc c tc.
C tc bit trc l thu nhp th hin bng s phn trm trn gi ti sn c bit. chng ta gi nh rng c tc c tr lin tc hng nm vi t l q.
T sut c tc Div/EPS=q
Gi nh dng c tc c tr lin tc
* Cng thc xc nh:
F0 = S0(1+r-q)T
Nu F0>S(1+r-q)T
Nh kinh doanh c th bn khng hp ng k hn v mua c phiu hn ch ri ro
Nu F0
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V d : V d trng hp c phiu c t sut c tc q=8%/nm,l i sut phi ri ro l
10%/nm,hin gi c phiu A ang giao dch l 20,000.
Gi s gi k hn 19,000 .
Ta c: S(1+r-q)t =20.000 (1+10%-0,08)1 =20,400
Ta thy F=19,000
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Li nhun
0
F S
V th bn
F: gi k hn S: gi giao ngay Ta c li nhun t hp ng k hn ca v th mua l (S-F) v li nhun t v th bn l
(F-S).
V th mua: li nhun s c c v gia tng khi gi giao ngay thi im o hn c xu hng tng hn t gi k hn k kt (S>F). Hay ni cch khc lc u d on gi s tng trong tng lai, nh u t phng chng ri ro bng cch k hp ng k hn. Khi k hp ng k hn th khch hng mong i gi cng ln cao s cng c li. Tuy nhin hp ng k hn c th em li khon l cho khch hng khi S
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- Gi tr H k hn ca ti sn u t bit trc thu nhp :
f = S0 I K(1+r)-T
vi I l gi tr hin ti
- Gi tr H k hn ca ti sn u t bit trc li sut q :
f = S0 * K(1+r)-T
Tm li:
- L i hoc l ph thuc vo s bin ng ca gi k hn.
- L i l l gi tr hin ti ca s thay i trong gi k hn nhn vi ln ca trng
thi.
TNG KT
Xt mt cch tng th, hp ng k hn (for ard contract) l mt cng c phng nga ri ro c nh gi l kh linh hot v phng din thi hn v s tin giao dch so vi hp ng giao ngay, nhng n li hn ch v mt thanh khon bi v cc bn tham gia hp ng khng th bn hp ng khi thy c li cng khng th xa b hp ng khi thy bt li. V mt ny so vi hp ng tng lai (futures contract) c tiu chun ho v giao dch trn cc th trng tp trung, hp ng for ard vn tn ti nhiu bt cp.
Mc d hp ng k hn c th giao dch da trn c s giao dch cc ti sn c s nh hng ha, chng khon v ngoi t nhng Vit Nam hin nay ch c hp ng k hn da trn c s giao dch ngoi t l ph bin.