this paper is the logical continuation of my earlier article:
DESCRIPTION
SHOCK THERAPY VERSUS GRADUALISM RECONSIDERED: LESSONS FROM TRANSITION ECONOMIES AFTER 15 YEARS OF REFORMS Vladimir Popov. This paper is the logical continuation of my earlier article: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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SHOCK THERAPY VERSUS GRADUALISM RECONSIDERED: LESSONS FROM TRANSITION ECONOMIES AFTER 15 YEARS OF REFORMSVladimir PopovThis paper is the logical continuation of my earlier article:Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the Transformational Recession)Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 42, No. 1, Spring 2000, pp. 1-57. The arguments of this earlier article, however, are reconsidered in light of new research and evidence.
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GDP change in selected transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Chart1
100100100100100100100100100100
88.495.397.596.598.894.490.99696.61990
82.286.883.38587.482.280.391.285.41991
84.38277.982.484.67574.47873.71992
87.684.37581.985.176.171.171.263.21993
92.188.878.684.38779.172.362.248.71994
98.692.584.185.592.184.773.959.642.71995
104.695.789.686.696.588.266.457.538.51996
111.8100.195.190.695.682.161.75837.21997
117.1103.999.29594.676.163.955.336.61998
121.9109.3101.199.395.175.265.457.136.51999
126.8114.3103.3104.598.276.568.96338.72000
128117.8106.7108.3101.380.671.76642.22001
129.8121.5111.4111.9103.384.575.16944.22002
133.7124.3115.7115.3106.488.178.573472003
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Sheet1
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973Russia
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247Ukraine
Aver100.0Aver
Bulgaria100.090.980.374.471.172.373.966.461.763.965.468.971.775.178.5Bulgaria
Romania100.094.482.27576.179.184.788.282.176.175.276.580.684.588.1Romania
Aver100.0Aver
Czech Republic100.098.887.484.685.18792.196.595.694.695.198.2101.3103.3106.4Czech Republic
Hungary100.096.58582.481.984.385.586.690.69599.3104.5108.3111.9115.3Hungary
Poland100.088.482.284.387.692.198.6104.6111.8117.1121.9126.8128129.8133.7Poland
Slovak Republic100.097.583.377.97578.684.189.695.199.2101.1103.3106.7111.4115.7Slovak Republic
Slovenia100.095.386.88284.388.892.595.7100.1103.9109.3114.3117.8121.5124.3Slovenia
Central Europe100.095.384.982.282.886.290.694.698.6102.0105.3109.4112.4115.6119.1CE
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973Russia
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247Ukraine
Belarus1009795.886.680.17063.764.471.177.179.784.388.392.496Belarus
Moldova10097.680.557.156.438.838.335.335.732.731.231.933.836.238.2Moldova
Estonia10093.580.869.363.161.864.56774.177.677.182.888.193.497.6Estonia
Latvia100102.992.26051.151.25152.55759.259.363.368.372.577.2Latvia
Lithuania1009589.670.559.153.355.157.661.86562.364.86973.678Lithuania
BALTICS10097.133333333387.533333333366.657.766666666755.433333333356.866666666759.033333333364.367.266666666766.233333333370.375.133333333379.833333333384.2666666667BALTICS
Armenia10092.676.736.43132.734.93738.140.842.244.74955.460.3Armenia
Azerbaijan10088.387.767.952.241.93737.439.643.646.85257.163.269.1Azerbaijan
Georgia10087.669.638.428.625.42628.731.832.733.734.3363841Georgia
CAUCASUS10089.57847.566666666737.266666666733.333333333332.633333333334.366666666736.539.033333333340.943.666666666747.366666666752.256.8CAUCASUS
Kazakhstan10099.686.784.176.466.861.361.662.761.562.668.77885.493.1Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan10010397.8579.366.653.250.353.959.260.562.766.169.669.272.8Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan10098.491.464.957.752.646.14444.847.248.95358.463.768.8Tajikistan
Turkmenistan10010297.292.182.868.563.659.352.655.364.175.484.388.697.2Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan100101.6101.189.987.884.183.484.786.890.694.397.998.3102.4102.9Uzbekistan
CENTRAL ASIA100100.9294.8582.0674.2665.0460.9460.761.2263.0266.5272.2277.7281.8686.96CENTRAL ASIA
Sheet1
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Sheet2
: EBRD.
. 5. , 1989 .= 100%
Sheet3
19931993100100
19941994112.687.43
3.63.4124.483.8
3.63.5136.480.9
3.63.55148.481.5
3.53.35159.977.4
3.63.5171.179.8
3.43.7186.585.8
3.553.720012001
GDP, 1993=100%, left scale
CHINA
RUSSIA
Index of economic freedom , right scale
Index of China
economic Russia
freedom China
1993= 100 Russia
GDP as a % of 1994
Fig. 3. Indices of economic freedom and GDP growth in Russia and China
-
,
Aver
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Lithuania
Latvia
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
-
INITIAL LIBERALIZATION AND OUTPUT CHANGE DURING RECESSION
-
LIBERALISATION AND OUTPUT CHANGE IN CHINA AND RUSSIA
Chart3
19931993100100
19941994112.687.43
3.63.4124.483.8
3.63.5136.480.9
3.63.55148.481.5
3.53.35159.977.4
3.63.5171.179.8
3.43.7186.585.8
3.553.720012001
GDP, 1993=100%, left scale
CHINA
RUSSIA
Index of economic freedom , right scale
Index of China
economic Russia
freedom China
1993= 100 Russia
GDP as a % of 1994
Fig. 3. Indices of economic freedom and GDP growth in Russia and China
Sheet1
LIBER1998 GDP as a
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003LIBER19952003 as a % of 1995% of 1994
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973122.4832214765RussiaAlbania2.3122
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247110.0702576112UkraineBelarus107
Aver100.00AverBulgaria89
Bulgaria100.090.980.374.471.172.373.966.461.763.965.468.971.775.178.52.96106.2246278755BulgariaChina140
Romania100.094.482.27576.179.184.788.282.176.175.276.580.684.588.1104.0141676505RomaniaCzech Republic3.61119
Aver100.00AverEstonia2.93120
Czech Republic100.098.887.484.685.18792.196.595.694.695.198.2101.3103.3106.4115.5266015201Czech RepublicHungary4.11113
Hungary100.096.58582.481.984.385.586.690.69599.3104.5108.3111.9115.3134.8538011696HungaryKazakhstan1.31102
Poland100.088.482.284.387.692.198.6104.6111.8117.1121.9126.8128129.8133.7135.5983772819PolandKyrghyzstan1.81113
Slovak Republic100.097.583.377.97578.684.189.695.199.2101.1103.3106.7111.4115.7137.5743162901Slovak RepublicLatvia2.39112
Slovenia100.095.386.88284.388.892.595.7100.1103.9109.3114.3117.8121.5124.3134.3783783784SloveniaLithuania2.62157
Central Europe100.095.384.982.282.886.290.694.698.6102.0105.3109.4112.4115.6119.1131.4929328622CE Moldova1.6287
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973122.4832214765RussiaMongolia2.27106
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247110.0702576112UkrainePoland4.14127
Belarus1009795.886.680.17063.764.471.177.179.784.388.392.4961.07150.7064364207BelarusRomania2.35100
Moldova10097.680.557.156.438.838.335.335.732.731.231.933.836.238.299.7389033943MoldovaRussia1.9289
Estonia10093.580.869.363.161.864.56774.177.677.182.888.193.497.6151.3178294574EstoniaSlovakia3.53123
Latvia100102.992.26051.151.25152.55759.259.363.368.372.577.2151.3725490196LatviaSlovenia4.16116
Lithuania1009589.670.559.153.355.157.661.86562.364.86973.678141.5607985481LithuaniaTurkmenistan0.6367
BALTICS10097.133333333387.533333333366.657.766666666755.433333333356.866666666759.033333333364.367.266666666766.233333333370.375.133333333379.833333333384.2666666667148.182883939BALTICSUkraine0.882
Armenia10092.676.736.43132.734.93738.140.842.244.74955.460.3172.7793696275ArmeniaUzbekistan1.11104
Azerbaijan10088.387.767.952.241.93737.439.643.646.85257.163.269.1186.7567567568AzerbaijanVietnam3.72126
Georgia10087.669.638.428.625.42628.731.832.733.734.33638411.32157.6923076923GeorgiaArmenia1.44125
CAUCASUS10089.57847.566666666737.266666666733.333333333332.633333333334.366666666736.539.033333333340.943.666666666747.366666666752.256.8174.0551583248CAUCASUSAzerbaijan1.03100
Kazakhstan10099.686.784.176.466.861.361.662.761.562.668.77885.493.1151.8760195759KazakhstanCroatia4.02121
Kyrgyzstan10010397.8579.366.653.250.353.959.260.562.766.169.669.272.8144.731610338KyrgyzstanGeorgia125
Tajikistan10098.491.464.957.752.646.14444.847.248.95358.463.768.80.95149.2407809111TajikistanMacedonia FYR3.92107
Turkmenistan10010297.292.182.868.563.659.352.655.364.175.484.388.697.2152.8301886792TurkmenistanTajikistan91
Uzbekistan100101.6101.189.987.884.183.484.786.890.694.397.998.3102.4102.9123.381294964Uzbekistan
CENTRAL ASIA100100.9294.8582.0674.2665.0460.9460.761.2263.0266.5272.2277.7281.8686.96142.6977354775CENTRAL ASIA
Mongolia10097.47888.47074036680.070266626877.661993217479.444491285884.460139798686.487267613989.946758318593.094894859695.906360684496.961330651998.318789281100102120.7670271956Mongolia
China1001.04E+021.14E+021.30E+021.47E+021.66E+021.84E+022.01E+022.19E+022.36E+022.53E+022.73E+022.93E+023.16E+023.45E+022187.7595564461China
Vietnam100105.1111.2120.9130.7142.2155.7170.1184.1194.8204.1218232.8248262.8Vietnam
Mongolia1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
GDP growth (annual %)8.34E+005.83E+005.93E+005.71E+009.38E+003.46E+005.11E+004.18E+00-2.52E+00-9.24E+00-9.50E+00-3.01E+002.30E+006.31E+002.40E+004.00E+003.50E+003.02E+001.11.4
GDP, 1989=100%1009.75E+018.85E+018.01E+017.77E+017.94E+018.45E+018.65E+018.99E+019.31E+019.59E+019.70E+019.83E+01
China1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
GDP growth (annual %)..-2.71E+01-6.11E+001.03E+011.58E+011.64E+018.32E+00-2.35E+00-2.73E+001.01E+011.41E+015.74E+002.72E+007.98E+002.69E+006.94E+00-1.56E+005.56E+001.02E+017.29E+005.96E+005.75E+009.57E+001.09E+011.52E+011.26E+018.55E+001.12E+011.07E+014.12E+003.99E+009.19E+001.43E+011.35E+011.28E+011.05E+019.58E+008.84E+007.80E+007.05E+0087.389
1001.04E+021.14E+021.30E+021.47E+021.66E+021.84E+022.01E+022.19E+022.36E+022.53E+022.73E+022.93E+023.16E+023.45E+02
Sheet1
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Fig. 1a. GDP change in selected European transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet2
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
: EBRD, World Bank.
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
Sheet3
19931993100100
19941994112.687.43
3.63.4124.483.8
3.63.5136.480.9
3.63.55148.481.5
3.53.35159.977.4
3.63.5171.179.8
3.43.7186.585.8
3.553.720012001
GDP, 1993=100%, left scale
CHINA
RUSSIA
Index of economic freedom , right scale
Index of China
economic Russia
freedom China
1993= 100 Russia
GDP as a % of 1994
Fig. 3. Indices of economic freedom and GDP growth in Russia and China
-
,
Aver
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
Source: EBRD, World Bank.
China
Vietnam
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Fig. 1b. GDP change in Asian transition economies, 1989 = 100%
1990199019907.28237994573.56372258568.855639830519904.5952270046
1991199119918.7225437884.186782962110.788308671919914.7171817228
199226.482768945519922.63627080664.433077525911.127616466212.15625615074.8125208828
14.738974610314.001806624818.04698233977.60460829284.409923541410.585461835815.3696847224.504501737
12.832677100613.89292845217.751286189111.46429451415.88337140510.71341615937.78109197275.2448069319
18.766612869714.894189624917.468493187417.57581481536.56057960349.49416903213.27789893555.602641249
14.750244984913.591953343915.636041935819.80892855968.67738904989.98318839113.2265490665.1352521158
18.146546027213.639997610210.498915828119.55207108489.037656250110.598830787412.68107587185.6209324055
15.165511480911.94030243437.727350735515.35983704278.91249381038.997698364210.22265500425.133665818
14.218963257412.004421242710.41555474315.64051623179.89939769857.42347620638.85168584775.0488054545
15.919427126815.061011690116.290375054516.163231588710.84830360787.47560939519.05567659295.794378712
16.542535414712.874875529614.168763417112.550077114710.32490051826.90616011158.01408435895.622896995
17.811087581213.251653062212.524324058512.502815072410.40624892047.78316724867.08499549866.2689933727
50.038774606369.3984391555171.6858384992292.005022013187.88938346158.2827098306136.4240192358
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Tajikistan
Vietnam
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
China
Fig. 12. Share of export in PPP GDP in North and Central Asian countries, 1990-2002, %
122
107
89
140
119
120
113
102
113
112
157
87
106
127
100
89
123
116
67
82
104
126
125
100
121
125
107
91
CZ
HU
POL
SLOVAK
SLOVEN
VIETN
CROAT
MACED
CHINA
LITH
CIS countries
BULG
EST
ALB
LATV
MONG
ROM
Cumulative liberalization index, 1995
1998 GDP as a % of 1994 GDP
Fig. 2. Liberalization index by 1995 and performance in 1994-98
87
63
68
189
89
69
86
45
52
52
42
35
83
104
88
57
90
96
57
42
84
156
39
38
70
31
56
37
CHINA
VIETN
SLOVEN
HUNG
MACED
CZECH
CROAT
EST
ARM
Distortions in industrial structure and external trade, % of GDP
1996 GDP as a % of 1998 GDP
Fig. 7. Aggregate distortions in industrial structure and external trade before transition and GDP change during transition
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 3. Government expenditure, % of GDP
8788
6375
6866
189225
8998
6977
8695
4563
5260
5258
4263
3534
8388
104118
8878
5755
90100
96103
5744
4237
8488
156177
3940
3842
7080
3135
5659
3741
UZB
CHINA (1986/88)
VIETN
TURKM
KAZ
AZERB
TADJ
1996
1998
Ratio of the rule of law to democracy index
1998(1996) GDP as a % of 1989 GDP
Fig. 15. Ratio of the rule of law to democracy index and output change
5.18333333336.11111111127.7833333333
4.63333333334.63333333331.6666666667
2.21666666672.21666666670
3.33333333333.33333333330
8.157.81
5.23.67
8.33333333337.63
7.78333333337.26
53.56
4.454.45
9.458.55
2.21666666672.2166666667
4.26666666674.2666666667
7.67.92
8.88333333337.52
55
7.78333333335.5
9.06666666678.35
5.18333333336.16
6.11666666676.1166666667
8.158.52
8.88333333338.78
1.66666666671.6666666667
0.550.55
6.11666666676.1166666667
0.73333333330.7333333333
1.66666666675
06.67
07.41
VIETN
CHINA (1980--89)
CHINA (1990-98)
CIS and BALKANS
CENTRAL EUROPE & BALTICS
MONG
RUS
CENTRAL ASIA, AZERB
CHINA (1990--98)
CIS, MONG, BALKANS
CENTRAL EUROPE & BALTICS
BULG
ALB, ROM
MACED, CROAT
BEL
KYRG
Non-CIS
CIS
Asian non-CIS
Rule of law index
Political rights (democracy) index
Fig. 14. Indices of the rule of law and political rights (democracy), 0-10 scale, higher value represent stronger rule of law and democracy
122
107
89
140
119
120
113
102
113
112
157
87
106
127
100
89
123
116
67
82
104
126
125
100
121
125
107
91
CZ
HU
POL
SLOVAK
SLOVEN
VIETN
CROAT
MACED
CHINA
LITH
CIS countries
BULG
EST
ALB
LATV
MONG
ROM
Cumulative liberalization index, 1995
1998 GDP as a % of 1994 GDP
Fig. 8. Liberalization index by 1995 and performance in 1994-98
159
150.7064364207
106.2246278755
187.7595564461
115.5266015201
151.3178294574
134.8538011696
151.8760195759
144.731610338
151.3725490196
141.5607985481
99.7389033943
120.7670271956
135.5983772819
104.0141676505
122.4832214765
137.5743162901
134.3783783784
152.8301886792
110.0702576112
123.381294964
169.6
172.7793696275
186.7567567568
112.3
157.6923076923
110.2
149.2407809111
LIBER_94
Cumulative liberalisation index
2003 GDP as a % of 1995
Fig. 10. Liberalisation increase and output change in transition economies in 1995-2003
75.8611
57.378
49.4566
87.7541
44.3246
44.3246
28.6445
36.5837
26.5005
9.55188
37.2064
Electric energy
Fuel
Non-ferrous metals
Light
Food
Wood
Constr. materials
Machinery
Chemicals
Petrochemicals
Steel
Ratio of 1998 proices to 1990 prices as a % of industrial average
January 1998 output as a % of January 1990 output
Fig. 4. Change in relative prices and output in 1990-98 in Russian industry
-
GDP change in Asian economies, 1989 = 100%
Chart1
100100100100100100100100100100
103.988105.195.3101.697.47810299.69610398.4
113.545433092111.284.94101.188.47074036697.286.791.297.8591.4
129.7438245769120.982.2489.980.070266626892.184.17879.364.9
147.3124358629130.782.7887.877.661993217482.876.471.266.657.7
166.2096751354142.286.1684.179.444491285868.566.862.253.252.6
183.7115539271155.790.5683.484.460139798663.661.359.650.346.1
201.3090999662170.194.684.786.487267613959.361.657.553.944
219.1009995303184.198.6486.889.946758318552.662.75859.244.8
236.1917538977194.8101.9690.693.094894859655.361.555.360.547.2
252.8510668754204.1105.3494.395.906360684464.162.657.162.748.9
273.0791522254218109.4297.996.961330651975.468.76366.153
293.0139303379232.8112.4298.398.31878928184.3786669.658.4
316.4550447649248115.58102.410088.685.46969.263.7
344.9359987937262.8119.08102.910297.293.17372.868.8
Source: EBRD, World Bank.
China
Vietnam
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Fig. 1b. GDP change in Asian transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet1
LIBER1998 GDP as a
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003LIBER19952003 as a % of 1995% of 1994
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973122.4832214765RussiaAlbania2.3122
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247110.0702576112UkraineBelarus107
Aver100.00AverBulgaria89
Bulgaria100.090.980.374.471.172.373.966.461.763.965.468.971.775.178.52.96106.2246278755BulgariaChina140
Romania100.094.482.27576.179.184.788.282.176.175.276.580.684.588.1104.0141676505RomaniaCzech Republic3.61119
Aver100.00AverEstonia2.93120
Czech Republic100.098.887.484.685.18792.196.595.694.695.198.2101.3103.3106.4115.5266015201Czech RepublicHungary4.11113
Hungary100.096.58582.481.984.385.586.690.69599.3104.5108.3111.9115.3134.8538011696HungaryKazakhstan1.31102
Poland100.088.482.284.387.692.198.6104.6111.8117.1121.9126.8128129.8133.7135.5983772819PolandKyrghyzstan1.81113
Slovak Republic100.097.583.377.97578.684.189.695.199.2101.1103.3106.7111.4115.7137.5743162901Slovak RepublicLatvia2.39112
Slovenia100.095.386.88284.388.892.595.7100.1103.9109.3114.3117.8121.5124.3134.3783783784SloveniaLithuania2.62157
Central Europe100.095.384.982.282.886.290.694.698.6102.0105.3109.4112.4115.6119.1131.4929328622CE Moldova1.6287
Russia100.09691.27871.262.259.657.55855.357.163666973122.4832214765RussiaMongolia2.27106
Ukraine100.096.685.473.763.248.742.738.537.236.636.538.742.244.247110.0702576112UkrainePoland4.14127
Belarus1009795.886.680.17063.764.471.177.179.784.388.392.4961.07150.7064364207BelarusRomania2.35100
Moldova10097.680.557.156.438.838.335.335.732.731.231.933.836.238.299.7389033943MoldovaRussia1.9289
Estonia10093.580.869.363.161.864.56774.177.677.182.888.193.497.6151.3178294574EstoniaSlovakia3.53123
Latvia100102.992.26051.151.25152.55759.259.363.368.372.577.2151.3725490196LatviaSlovenia4.16116
Lithuania1009589.670.559.153.355.157.661.86562.364.86973.678141.5607985481LithuaniaTurkmenistan0.6367
BALTICS10097.133333333387.533333333366.657.766666666755.433333333356.866666666759.033333333364.367.266666666766.233333333370.375.133333333379.833333333384.2666666667148.182883939BALTICSUkraine0.882
Armenia10092.676.736.43132.734.93738.140.842.244.74955.460.3172.7793696275ArmeniaUzbekistan1.11104
Azerbaijan10088.387.767.952.241.93737.439.643.646.85257.163.269.1186.7567567568AzerbaijanVietnam3.72126
Georgia10087.669.638.428.625.42628.731.832.733.734.33638411.32157.6923076923GeorgiaArmenia1.44125
CAUCASUS10089.57847.566666666737.266666666733.333333333332.633333333334.366666666736.539.033333333340.943.666666666747.366666666752.256.8174.0551583248CAUCASUSAzerbaijan1.03100
Kazakhstan10099.686.784.176.466.861.361.662.761.562.668.77885.493.1151.8760195759KazakhstanCroatia4.02121
Kyrgyzstan10010397.8579.366.653.250.353.959.260.562.766.169.669.272.8144.731610338KyrgyzstanGeorgia125
Tajikistan10098.491.464.957.752.646.14444.847.248.95358.463.768.80.95149.2407809111TajikistanMacedonia FYR3.92107
Turkmenistan10010297.292.182.868.563.659.352.655.364.175.484.388.697.2152.8301886792TurkmenistanTajikistan91
Uzbekistan100101.6101.189.987.884.183.484.786.890.694.397.998.3102.4102.9123.381294964Uzbekistan
CENTRAL ASIA100100.9294.8582.0674.2665.0460.9460.761.2263.0266.5272.2277.7281.8686.96142.6977354775CENTRAL ASIA
Mongolia10097.47888.47074036680.070266626877.661993217479.444491285884.460139798686.487267613989.946758318593.094894859695.906360684496.961330651998.318789281100102120.7670271956Mongolia
China1001.04E+021.14E+021.30E+021.47E+021.66E+021.84E+022.01E+022.19E+022.36E+022.53E+022.73E+022.93E+023.16E+023.45E+022187.7595564461China
Vietnam100105.1111.2120.9130.7142.2155.7170.1184.1194.8204.1218232.8248262.8Vietnam
Mongolia1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
GDP growth (annual %)8.34E+005.83E+005.93E+005.71E+009.38E+003.46E+005.11E+004.18E+00-2.52E+00-9.24E+00-9.50E+00-3.01E+002.30E+006.31E+002.40E+004.00E+003.50E+003.02E+001.11.4
GDP, 1989=100%1009.75E+018.85E+018.01E+017.77E+017.94E+018.45E+018.65E+018.99E+019.31E+019.59E+019.70E+019.83E+01
China1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
GDP growth (annual %)..-2.71E+01-6.11E+001.03E+011.58E+011.64E+018.32E+00-2.35E+00-2.73E+001.01E+011.41E+015.74E+002.72E+007.98E+002.69E+006.94E+00-1.56E+005.56E+001.02E+017.29E+005.96E+005.75E+009.57E+001.09E+011.52E+011.26E+018.55E+001.12E+011.07E+014.12E+003.99E+009.19E+001.43E+011.35E+011.28E+011.05E+019.58E+008.84E+007.80E+007.05E+0087.389
1001.04E+021.14E+021.30E+021.47E+021.66E+021.84E+022.01E+022.19E+022.36E+022.53E+022.73E+022.93E+023.16E+023.45E+02
Sheet1
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Fig. 1a. GDP change in selected European transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet2
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
0000000000
: EBRD, World Bank.
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
Sheet3
19931993100100
19941994112.687.43
3.63.4124.483.8
3.63.5136.480.9
3.63.55148.481.5
3.53.35159.977.4
3.63.5171.179.8
3.43.7186.585.8
3.553.720012001
GDP, 1993=100%, left scale
CHINA
RUSSIA
Index of economic freedom , right scale
Index of China
economic Russia
freedom China
1993= 100 Russia
GDP as a % of 1994
Fig. 3. Indices of economic freedom and GDP growth in Russia and China
-
,
Aver
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
Source: EBRD, World Bank.
China
Vietnam
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Fig. 1b. GDP change in Asian transition economies, 1989 = 100%
1990199019907.28237994573.56372258568.855639830519904.5952270046
1991199119918.7225437884.186782962110.788308671919914.7171817228
199226.482768945519922.63627080664.433077525911.127616466212.15625615074.8125208828
14.738974610314.001806624818.04698233977.60460829284.409923541410.585461835815.3696847224.504501737
12.832677100613.89292845217.751286189111.46429451415.88337140510.71341615937.78109197275.2448069319
18.766612869714.894189624917.468493187417.57581481536.56057960349.49416903213.27789893555.602641249
14.750244984913.591953343915.636041935819.80892855968.67738904989.98318839113.2265490665.1352521158
18.146546027213.639997610210.498915828119.55207108489.037656250110.598830787412.68107587185.6209324055
15.165511480911.94030243437.727350735515.35983704278.91249381038.997698364210.22265500425.133665818
14.218963257412.004421242710.41555474315.64051623179.89939769857.42347620638.85168584775.0488054545
15.919427126815.061011690116.290375054516.163231588710.84830360787.47560939519.05567659295.794378712
16.542535414712.874875529614.168763417112.550077114710.32490051826.90616011158.01408435895.622896995
17.811087581213.251653062212.524324058512.502815072410.40624892047.78316724867.08499549866.2689933727
50.038774606369.3984391555171.6858384992292.005022013187.88938346158.2827098306136.4240192358
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Tajikistan
Vietnam
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
China
Fig. 12. Share of export in PPP GDP in North and Central Asian countries, 1990-2002, %
122
107
89
140
119
120
113
102
113
112
157
87
106
127
100
89
123
116
67
82
104
126
125
100
121
125
107
91
CZ
HU
POL
SLOVAK
SLOVEN
VIETN
CROAT
MACED
CHINA
LITH
CIS countries
BULG
EST
ALB
LATV
MONG
ROM
Cumulative liberalization index, 1995
1998 GDP as a % of 1994 GDP
Fig. 2. Liberalization index by 1995 and performance in 1994-98
87
63
68
189
89
69
86
45
52
52
42
35
83
104
88
57
90
96
57
42
84
156
39
38
70
31
56
37
CHINA
VIETN
SLOVEN
HUNG
MACED
CZECH
CROAT
EST
ARM
Distortions in industrial structure and external trade, % of GDP
1996 GDP as a % of 1998 GDP
Fig. 7. Aggregate distortions in industrial structure and external trade before transition and GDP change during transition
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 3. Government expenditure, % of GDP
8788
6375
6866
189225
8998
6977
8695
4563
5260
5258
4263
3534
8388
104118
8878
5755
90100
96103
5744
4237
8488
156177
3940
3842
7080
3135
5659
3741
UZB
CHINA (1986/88)
VIETN
TURKM
KAZ
AZERB
TADJ
1996
1998
Ratio of the rule of law to democracy index
1998(1996) GDP as a % of 1989 GDP
Fig. 15. Ratio of the rule of law to democracy index and output change
5.18333333336.11111111127.7833333333
4.63333333334.63333333331.6666666667
2.21666666672.21666666670
3.33333333333.33333333330
8.157.81
5.23.67
8.33333333337.63
7.78333333337.26
53.56
4.454.45
9.458.55
2.21666666672.2166666667
4.26666666674.2666666667
7.67.92
8.88333333337.52
55
7.78333333335.5
9.06666666678.35
5.18333333336.16
6.11666666676.1166666667
8.158.52
8.88333333338.78
1.66666666671.6666666667
0.550.55
6.11666666676.1166666667
0.73333333330.7333333333
1.66666666675
06.67
07.41
VIETN
CHINA (1980--89)
CHINA (1990-98)
CIS and BALKANS
CENTRAL EUROPE & BALTICS
MONG
RUS
CENTRAL ASIA, AZERB
CHINA (1990--98)
CIS, MONG, BALKANS
CENTRAL EUROPE & BALTICS
BULG
ALB, ROM
MACED, CROAT
BEL
KYRG
Non-CIS
CIS
Asian non-CIS
Rule of law index
Political rights (democracy) index
Fig. 14. Indices of the rule of law and political rights (democracy), 0-10 scale, higher value represent stronger rule of law and democracy
122
107
89
140
119
120
113
102
113
112
157
87
106
127
100
89
123
116
67
82
104
126
125
100
121
125
107
91
CZ
HU
POL
SLOVAK
SLOVEN
VIETN
CROAT
MACED
CHINA
LITH
CIS countries
BULG
EST
ALB
LATV
MONG
ROM
Cumulative liberalization index, 1995
1998 GDP as a % of 1994 GDP
Fig. 8. Liberalization index by 1995 and performance in 1994-98
159
150.7064364207
106.2246278755
187.7595564461
115.5266015201
151.3178294574
134.8538011696
151.8760195759
144.731610338
151.3725490196
141.5607985481
99.7389033943
120.7670271956
135.5983772819
104.0141676505
122.4832214765
137.5743162901
134.3783783784
152.8301886792
110.0702576112
123.381294964
169.6
172.7793696275
186.7567567568
112.3
157.6923076923
110.2
149.2407809111
LIBER_94
Cumulative liberalisation index
2003 GDP as a % of 1995
Fig. 10. Liberalisation increase and output change in transition economies in 1995-2003
75.8611
57.378
49.4566
87.7541
44.3246
44.3246
28.6445
36.5837
26.5005
9.55188
37.2064
Electric energy
Fuel
Non-ferrous metals
Light
Food
Wood
Constr. materials
Machinery
Chemicals
Petrochemicals
Steel
Ratio of 1998 proices to 1990 prices as a % of industrial average
January 1998 output as a % of January 1990 output
Fig. 4. Change in relative prices and output in 1990-98 in Russian industry
-
GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
Chart1
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6
84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5
82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1
82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4
86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8
90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3
94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3
98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7
105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2
109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8
115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2
119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2
12411010610310510477858476787866534441
128.411511411311211193929082828073554844
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet1
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
Poland142
Slovenia126
Slovakia121
Hungary120
Uzbekistan115
Czech Republic114
Turkmenistan112
Estonia112
Belarus111
Kazakhstan103
Romania100
Armenia98
Croatia94
Latvia90
Bulgaria89
Lithuania89
Russia82
Kyrgyzstan80
Azerbaijan72
Tajikistan69
Ukraine57
Georgia45
Moldova44
CAUCASUS
CENTRAL ASIA
Sheet1
100100100100100100100100100100
88.495.397.596.598.894.490.99696.61990
82.286.883.38587.482.280.391.285.41991
84.38277.982.484.67574.47873.71992
87.684.37581.985.176.171.171.263.21993
92.188.878.684.38779.172.362.248.71994
98.692.584.185.592.184.773.959.642.71995
104.695.789.686.696.588.266.457.538.51996
111.8100.195.190.695.682.161.75837.21997
117.1103.999.29594.676.163.955.336.61998
121.9109.3101.199.395.175.265.457.136.51999
126.8114.3103.3104.598.276.568.96338.72000
128117.8106.7108.3101.380.671.76642.22001
129.8121.5111.4111.9103.384.575.16944.22002
133.7124.3115.7115.3106.488.178.573472003
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Fig. 2. GDP change in selected transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet2
14.788.1650654
15.687.7106063
19.387.98328176
17.287.98328176
15.187.89238994
15.986.52901264
15.786.8016881
15.586.16544536
15.186.89257992
14.387.43793084
15.586.52901264
15.386.89257992
1488.3467205357
15.289.1498725405
16.588.4359596473
18.289.3283507639
2088.0790032007
24.588.8821552056
24.589.5960680988
23.988.8821552056
23.188.9713943172
22.989.6853072105
16.890.577698327
17.891.0238938852
15.489.6853072105
1590.3992201037
16.989.4175898755
1690.0422636571
14.686.204981856
16.286.6511774143
18.481.1183524919
12.578.6196573656
12.776.0317231277
13.679.6905267054
12.882.2784609433
12.285.0448734045
11.686.7077695201
11.485.9065683643
10.888.3101718315
11.288.2211494809
11.990.5357305975
12.292.3161776102
11.993.6515128697
11.294.8978257786
11.295.8770716357
11.890.8027976494
11.594.0966246229
12.594.0076022723
12.995.7
13.799.4
15.597.8
17.196.8
19.699.1
21100.2
23.3100.5
23.7101.5
25101.8
25.9101.8
27.7102.7
27.9102.7
27.5103.1
27.6102.5
29.1102.4
30.9103.6
32.8106.1
34.3103.9
35.8105
36.8106.6
36.9105.7
36.8107
35.9107.5
34.5105.4
36.6105.4
36.4104.5
36.9106.2
37.3108.1
39.2109
42.2108.5
43.6113.2
43.3110.2
44.3110.0001996761
45.6109.4357212668
46.8108.9216178811
48.2108.9392336869
47.8109.9177899649
49.2111.0061549032
53.1112.2092835358
55.5113.0284185065
59.8113.564927961
64.9114.125543255
64.4114.9902629863
64.5116.325355638
62.8116
62.1116.8
64.9117.7
68.2118.8
76.9119.6
84120.1
86.338047
FOREX
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Source: Russian Economic Trends, Goskomstat, CBR.
Fig. 8. Index of industrial output (2000 = 100%, left scale) and foreign exchange reserves, bln dollars (right scale)
Sheet3
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
Source: (Popov, 2000).
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 5. Government expenditure, % of GDP
87
63
68
189
89
69
86
45
52
52
42
35
83
104
88
51
90
96
57
42
84
156
39
38
70
31
56
37
China (1979-86)
Vietnam
Armenia
Source: (Popov, 2000).
Decrease in the share of government revenues in GDP from 1989-91 to 1993-96, p.p.
1996 GDP as a % of 1989 GDP
Fig. 4 Change in government revenues and GDP
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
20047
Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100121.6
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 4. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, end of year, bln. $
133.513.518.214.8
138.319.51020
132.815.77.721.5
117.212922.3
104.29.711.323.8
97.77.514.233.8
93725.567.6
97.1832.573.7
Government
CB (including government debt to IMF)
Banks
Non-financial enterprises
Fig. 3. Russia's external debt, billion $
65.844.2-21.61992
43.336.1-7.21993
4534.6-10.41994
37.732.2-5.51995
3526.1-8.91996
36.327.9-8.41997
30.424.5-5.9-11000
26.325.1-1.226.3
26.529.42.926.5
26.729.62.926.7
27.330.22.927.3
29.831.11.329.8
27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
Surplus
Exp
Gov rev
Def
Figure 2. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
8.77.2197019701970
9.810.3197519751975
1112.91980198034.8
11.310.5991.838.5431.1
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.7
11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4
11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5
12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731
14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1
15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1
1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4
14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939
13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738
13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935
14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139
15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539
15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940
16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6
16.429.5190721.865457184335.9
1627.22004200434.4
Mortality rate (per 1000)
Murder rate (death statistics)
Crime rate
Murder rate (crime statistics)
Suicide rate
Fig. 5. Crime rate (left scale), mortality rate (per 1000), murder rates and suicide rate (right scale) per 100,000 inhabitants
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6
84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5
82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1
82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4
86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8
90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3
94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3
98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7
105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2
109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8
115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2
119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2
12411010610310510477858476787866534441
128.411511411311211193929082828073554844
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
Slovakia
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.693.51029799.695102.99610388.398.492.696.687.697.6
84.94101.180.897.295.886.789.692.291.297.8587.791.476.785.469.680.5
82.2489.969.392.186.684.170.5607879.367.964.936.473.738.457.1
82.7887.863.182.880.176.459.151.171.266.652.257.73163.228.656.4
86.1684.161.868.57066.853.351.262.253.241.952.632.748.725.438.8
90.5683.464.563.663.761.355.15159.650.33746.134.942.72638.3
94.684.76759.364.461.657.652.557.553.937.4443738.528.735.3
98.6486.874.152.671.162.761.8575859.239.644.838.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.655.377.161.56559.255.360.543.647.240.836.632.732.7
105.3494.377.164.179.762.662.359.357.162.746.848.942.236.533.731.2
109.4297.982.875.484.368.764.863.36366.1525344.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.184.388.3786968.36669.657.158.44942.23633.8
115.58102.493.488.692.485.473.672.56969.263.263.755.444.23836.2
119.08102.997.697.29693.17877.27372.869.168.860.3474138.2
: EBRD.
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
65.844.2-21.61992
43.336.1-7.21993
4534.6-10.41994
37.732.2-5.51995
3526.1-8.91996
36.327.9-8.41997
30.424.5-5.9-11000
26.325.1-1.226.3
26.529.42.926.5
26.729.62.926.7
27.330.22.927.3
29.831.11.329.8
27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702
: .
Exp
Gov rev
Def
. 4. , %
133.513.518.214.8
138.319.51020
132.815.77.721.5
117.212922.3
104.29.711.323.8
97.77.514.233.8
93725.567.6
97.1832.573.7
: .
( )
. 5. , . .
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
20047
: .
. 3. , %, 1990-2004 .
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100121.6
: .
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
. 6. (1995=100%) - , . .
8.77.2197019701970
9.810.3197519751975
1112.91980198034.8
11.310.5991.838.5431.1
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.7
11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4
11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5
12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731
14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1
15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1
1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4
14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939
13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738
13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935
14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139
15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539
15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940
16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6
16.429.5190721.865457184335.9
1627.22004200434.4
: .
( )
( )
100 .
(), 100 .
. 2. , , 1970-2004 .
-
Russia was leading in economic liberalization, while Belarus was lagging
Chart1
5105
5105
251010
401510
504015
554515
605015
705520
705520
705520
706020
706020
706525
706525
706525
656525
656525
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Belarus
Private sector share in GDP, %
Russia-Ukraine-belarus
COUNTRY_NAMEIND1_DESC198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
BelarusAid per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,18.3470726.7325818.1580211.6495621.872677.5305125.4531973.8792333.9162933.961023.9347023.973804
BelarusCorruption (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,17.9
BelarusCourts (% of managers surveyed lacking confidence in courts to uphold property rights),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,48.12
BelarusCourts (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11.2
BelarusCrime (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12.3
BelarusEnergy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 2000 PPP $),,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.81940070.69702270.67014220.69633950.68974780.61890830.55839570.52604090.50639910.48558910.4681626
BelarusGDP growth (annual %),,,,,,,,,,,,-1.2-9.6-7.6-11.7-10.42.811.48.43.45.84.757118
BelarusGDP per capita, PPP (current international $),,,,,,,,4344.9464440.7034097.9923863.0353493.6243201.3293359.783831.1364215.1244430.0124802.115162.9815542.0636894
BelarusGeneral government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,23.7875321.2399515.6733418.5005920.5112120.5500520.5516920.3220519.8647219.5036419.4785321.5527721.0295
BelarusGINI index,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30.35,,,,
BelarusGross capital formation (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,26.512729.0470731.7912441.0303332.9363124.750223.5190226.8368126.7120223.7067725.3986723.7608622.17685
BelarusHealth expenditure per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9073648293
BelarusHealth expenditure, public (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4.9264.94714.88614.9834.7296
BelarusLife expectancy at birth, total (years)70.9926871.5495170.9902471.3414671.5878170.8365970.3780570.0219568.9707368.768368.4609868.612268.4609868.4073267.9073268.2073168.1
BelarusLiteracy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,99.59073,,,,,,
BelarusMilitary expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.5143322.6184393.3923071.5922231.1811981.657171.4005331.2802111.2617971.4382881.402115
BelarusMoney and quasi money (M2) as % of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10.244711.7993111.6015819.5846611.9411711.6006312.3200112.53605
BelarusMortality rate, adult, female (per 1,000 female adults),,,,,,,,,,97.906,,,,,,,,,,,,128,,,,133,,,,
BelarusMortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults),,,,,,,,,,254.417,,,,,,,,,,,,361,,,,381,,,,
BelarusMortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births),,,,,,,,,,14,,,,,,,,15,,,,,,,,14,,,,
BelarusMortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000),,,,,,,,,,17,,,,,,,,18,,,,,,,,17,,,,
BelarusPPP conversion factor to official exchange rate ratio,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.3228970.42479270.36372170.35865680.27304970.21683360.240010.2653384
BelarusProcedures to register property,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
BelarusPublic spending on education, total (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,4.8346426.0000126.0000066.000013
BelarusResearch and development expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,998.5212729.9991705.7797845.22580.72210140.70876370.6208954
BelarusResearchers in R&D (per million people),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2295.671937.141902.171875.141969.721919.061869.72
BelarusVehicles (per 1,000 people),,,,,,,,,,60.5265.9271.876.5686.5793.08102.82111.8,,,,,,,,,,
Russian FederationAid per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,1.7129723.7928613.0237616.3021812.4567210.881668.6795635.3834927.33817113.299810.750927.6809999.033475
Russian FederationCorruption (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13.7
Russian FederationCourts (% of managers surveyed lacking confidence in courts to uphold property rights),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,65.3
Russian FederationCourts (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,9.5
Russian FederationCrime (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12.4
Russian FederationEnergy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 2000 PPP $),,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.63328770.6675250.67032750.67186670.68016720.64246760.64780040.63422650.59525820.5803350.5483519
Russian FederationGDP growth (annual %),,,,,,,,,,-2.999996-5.046939-14.53107-8.66854-12.56976-4.143528-3.61.4-5.36.4105.0919844.6759417.37.16
Russian FederationGDP per capita, PPP (current international $),,,,,,,,8183.8998231.5718077.2767109.6416653.2445913.5855814.3595758.3276000.215893.9826360.0277086.3477572.6158130.1389721
Russian FederationGeneral government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,20.1221620.7854716.5105513.8574420.0391819.0994719.0759519.4939721.0672418.7328914.5795315.0911616.4352217.71204
Russian FederationGINI index,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,31.018
Russian FederationGross capital formation (% of GDP),,,,,,,,33.8394430.1303936.2674334.6133627.0071725.5374525.4392723.667721.9765214.9642514.830418.6938821.9497720.208
Russian FederationHealth expenditure per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11270102128150
Russian FederationHealth expenditure, public (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.40992.9123.22053.2643.4596
Russian FederationLife expectancy at birth, total (years)67.8568369.3897669.4469.4643969.1717168.9024468.4743966.8731764.9358564.4670765.2212266.1941566.9507366.7839166.0436665.3414665.8487865.3
Russian FederationLiteracy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,99.44097
Russian FederationMarket capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,4.79E-024.74E-024.14E-033.82E-024.0199389.49654631.610677.60279136.8544514.9783324.8530135.93621
Russian FederationMilitary expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,23.3333319.15554,,5.5181485.2690815.8763814.4256224.1082284.4838423.2542593.4308553.7328354.0853124.062861
Russian FederationMoney and quasi money (M2) as % of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,13.9757714.1936315.7654217.4526120.801416.8646117.5357620.7254123.10237
Russian FederationMortality rate, adult, female (per 1,000 female adults)127112110110114116119131160178169154142139151156,,149
Russian FederationMortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults)332284283288304316323364441484464426391383416428,,420
Russian FederationMortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births),,,,,,,,,,21,,,,,,,,18,,,,,,,,18,,,,
Russian FederationMortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000),,,,,,,,,,21,,,,,,,,22,,,,,,,,21,,,,
Russian FederationPPP conversion factor to official exchange rate ratio,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.17502710.31781410.36376360.46088040.458150.31294120.21053240.25179640.27972250.2946025
Russian FederationProcedures to register property,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Russian FederationPublic spending on education, total (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,3.4518783.6710382.9429483.1060183.751241
Russian FederationReal effective exchange rate index (2000 = 100),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,102.9587112.8573137.6172145.1805128.467390.53033100118.7202122.6617
Russian FederationResearch and development expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.96592741.0437430.9538360.99623691.049841.1769391.248019
Russian FederationResearchers in R&D (per million people),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3804.483614.763352.63397.133479.233494.13414.59
Russian FederationStocks traded, total value (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6.78E-020.11756420.75512854.0078873.8733641.4491667.8210767.47155910.47106
Russian FederationStocks traded, turnover ratio (%),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11.124.40.025.936.939.130.06
Russian FederationVehicles (per 1,000 people),,,,,,,,,,,,87.0793.09100.45110.3120.07139.68154.4162.9170.8176.1,,,,
UkraineAid per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,5.5692597.08255610.692226.2935285.5852166.2048097.7884735.2849289.23881211.4028410.9331110.575449.930764
UkraineCorruption (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,27.8
UkraineCourts (% of managers surveyed lacking confidence in courts to uphold property rights),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,49
UkraineCourts (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,15.3
UkraineCrime (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major constraint),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,19.6
UkraineEnergy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 2000 PPP $),,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.58087550.59039260.66120740.74669640.74355760.72944810.69566610.68712220.63920370.5936080.5687186
UkraineGDP growth (annual %),,,,,,2.5664633.873103-6.345235-8.410644-9.698998-14.22611-22.93405-12.15059-10.04362-2.988259-1.943986-0.19999155.99.25.29.412.14
UkraineGDP per capita, PPP (current international $),,,,6493.7276858.3597240.3116982.7826618.3426228.5115592.2034343.8293961.5913649.1373628.8233653.13756.0694108.694572.3644905.6096414
UkraineGeneral government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,17.3418716.5141917.3992617.5589815.9833619.361621.2696521.7593427.3989224.6079219.829520.9184519.6224118.39555
UkraineGINI index,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,28.96,,,,,,
UkraineGross capital formation (% of GDP),,,,,,,,28.8813827.4638226.3493634.4523136.2925135.3314526.6832122.6707921.4459420.8172117.5129520.2499121.8056720.19131TotalPropertyRobberySex assaultAssaultCorrr
UkraineHealth expenditure per capita (current US$),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4127263440Kiev (Ukraine) 199929.18.92.51.21.516.2
UkraineHealth expenditure, public (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.51332.95842.8983.04923.3417La Paz (Bolivia) 1995 39.8 18.1 5.8 1.5 2.0 24.4
UkraineLife expectancy at birth, total (years)70.0463470.4951270.4975670.5390270.1365968.8780568.8780567.8780567.8731767.1170767.3107367.2953667.9682968.193967.8634168.1682966.1Manila (Philippines) 1995 10.6 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 4.3199019921,9941996199820002002
UkraineLiteracy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,99.43041,,Maputo (Mozambique) 2001 40.6 29.3 7.6 2.2 3.2 30.5
UkraineMarket capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7.3179871.3609263.5464776.0137823.9990177.359724Minsk (Belarus) 1999 23.6 11.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 20.6
UkraineMilitary expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.53617322.8020323.0541263.4752633.670543.6152562.9959673.6396782.8698762.794385Moscow (Russian Federation) 1999 26.3 10.9 2.4 1.2 1.1 16.6
UkraineMoney and quasi money (M2) as % of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,17.0858715.356569.3051349.99420811.7309413.6934114.3454615.7218318.8043524.24766
UkraineMortality rate, adult, female (per 1,000 female adults),,,,,,,,,,105.13,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,135,,,,
UkraineMortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults),,,,,,,,,,267.771,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,365,,,,
UkraineMortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births),,,,,,,,,,18,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,17,,,,
UkraineMortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000),,,,,,,,,,22,,,,,,,,24,,,,,,,,21,,,,
UkrainePPP conversion factor to official exchange rate ratio,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.11211030.16296610.1812860.23889320.27260640.22791740.16847470.15370670.16932660.1773842
UkraineProcedures to register property,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
UkrainePublic spending on education, total (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,5.1495554.4488423.6180834.1662264.6804935.433329
UkraineReal effective exchange rate index (2000 = 100),,,,,,,,,,,,,,113.721449.7778670.538984.3580499.35748112.4835109.7412106.7676100100.388795.14735
UkraineResearch and development expenditure (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.4123581.2290941.1914091.2032331.1913021.156593
UkraineResearchers in R&D (per million people),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2890.252134.012006.081898.091801.821759.231749.1
UkraineStocks traded, total value (% of GDP),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.22204590.39264560.92126020.59459060.2995785
UkraineStocks traded, turnover ratio (%),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0.110.2619.6413.914.84
UkraineVehicles (per 1,000 people),,,,,,,,,,63.0568.6572.6277.8582.0586.7292.66,,119126127129135
COUNTRY_NAMEIND1_DESC198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
BelarusGeneral government final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$),,,,,,,,,,2.79E+092.58E+092.06E+091.84E+091.80E+091.76E+091.73E+091.86E+091.98E+092.10E+092.22E+092.30E+092.31E+09
Russian FederationGeneral government final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$),,,,,,,,,,5.21E+104.63E+104.08E+103.82E+103.71E+103.67E+103.78E+103.69E+103.73E+103.84E+103.92E+103.89E+103.99E+10
UkraineGeneral government final consumption expenditure (constant 2000 US$),,,,,,,,,,8.75E+099.40E+099.76E+099.77E+098.58E+097.90E+097.47E+097.30E+097.05E+096.49E+096.54E+097.22E+097.17E+09
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
COUNTRY_NAMEIND1_DESC
BelarusGeneral government final consumption expenditure (2000=100%)100.092.573.865.964.563.162.066.771.075.379.682.482.8
Russian FederationGeneral government final consumption expenditure (2000=100%)100.088.978.373.371.270.472.670.871.673.775.274.776.6
UkraineGeneral government final consumption expenditure (2000=100%)100.0107.4111.5111.798.190.385.483.480.674.274.782.581.9
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002
BelarusGov purch of G&S without def14.15900815.88215117.11890318.95782719.37049218.6648818.46418718.22342918.21673320.11448219.627385
Russian Federation1.629938.33929214.77009913.22308914.65032815.38574216.58339815.47863111.14867511.35832512.34990813.649179
Ukraine15.447186816.55956818.21552418.28407723.7283820.99266416.83353317.27877216.75253415.601165
Gov rev,% of GDP19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Belarus38.247.546.156.247.34342.746.844.445.345.844.944.645.846.2
Russian Federation43.547.271.144.745.937.340.440.734.433.636.937.337.636.738.6
Ukraine58.258.454.545.836.331.334.635.631.933.433.535.63735.6
FDI in 1989-2004 per capita
Belarus218
Ukraine168
Russian Federation54
Private sector share in GDP, %19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Belarus55101015151520202020202525252525
Russian Federation55254050556070707070707070706565
Ukraine1010101540455055555560606565656565
Electricity tariffs, US cents per 1 kWh1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Belarus1.51.10.41.41.33.23.23.3
Russian Federation2.22.3333.22.73.2
Ukraine1.043.53.73.342.72.62.72.72.7
Russia-Ukraine-belarus
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6
84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5
82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1
82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4
86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8
90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3
94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3
98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7
105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2
109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8
115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2
119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2
12411010610310510477858476787866534441
128.411511411311211193929082828073554844
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
142
126
121
120
115
114
112
112
111
103
100
98
94
90
89
89
82
80
72
69
57
45
44
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
Hungary
19851985198519850.593
19900.8130.7850.7980.627
19950.7710.7520.7510.683
200020000.7750.7620.721
0.8090.7950.790.7770.745
0.8170.7950.7860.7660.755
Cuba
Russia
Belarus
Ukraine
China
Human Development Index for China, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
Belarus
Russian Federation
Ukraine
GDP growth rates, %
Russian Federation
Belarus
Ukraine
PPP GDP per capita, current international dollars
Belarus
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Life expectancy at birth, years (1995-2002 - WDI, 2003 - HDR)
26.512727.4638230.13039
29.0470726.3493636.26743
31.7912434.4523134.61336
41.0303336.2925127.00717
32.9363135.3314525.53745
24.750226.6832125.43927
23.5190222.6707923.6677
26.8368121.4459421.97652
26.7120220.8172114.96425
23.7067717.5129514.8304
25.3986720.2499118.69388
23.7608621.8056721.94977
22.1768520.1913120.208
Belarus
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Investment as a % of GDP
0.58087550.63328770.8194007
0.59039260.6675250.6970227
0.66120740.67032750.6701422
0.74669640.67186670.6963395
0.74355760.68016720.6897478
0.72944810.64246760.6189083
0.69566610.64780040.5583957
0.68712220.63422650.5260409
0.63920370.59525820.5063991
0.5936080.5803350.4855891
0.56871860.54835190.4681626
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Belarus
Energy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 2000 PPP $)
5.5692591.7129721990
7.0825563.7928618.34707
10.6922213.0237626.73258
6.29352816.3021818.15802
5.58521612.4567211.64956
6.20480910.8816621.87267
7.7884738.6795637.530512
5.2849285.3834925.453197
9.2388127.3381713.879233
11.4028413.29983.916293
10.9331110.750923.96102
10.575447.6809993.934702
9.9307649.0334753.973804
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Belarus
Aid per capita (current US$)
17.3418720.122161990
16.5141920.7854723.78753
17.3992616.5105521.23995
17.5589813.8574415.67334
15.9833620.0391818.50059
19.361619.0994720.51121
21.2696519.0759520.55005
21.7593419.4939720.55169
27.3989221.0672420.32205
24.6079218.7328919.86472
19.829514.5795319.50364
20.9184515.0911619.47853
19.6224116.4352221.55277
18.3955517.7120421.0295
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Belarus
General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)
14.15900819928.339292
15.88215115.447186814.770099
17.11890316.55956813.223089
18.95782718.21552414.650328
19.37049218.28407715.385742
18.6648823.7283816.583398
18.46418720.99266415.478631
18.22342916.83353311.148675
18.21673317.27877211.358325
20.11448216.75253412.349908
19.62738515.60116513.649179
Belarus
Ukraine
Russian Federation
General government final consumption expenditure without defense expenditure (% of GDP)
4.8346425.1495553.451878
199119911991
199219921992
199319931993
199419941994
199519951995
199619961996
199719971997
6.0000124.4488423.671038
6.0000063.6180831999
6.0000134.1662262.942948
20014.6804933.106018
20025.4333293.751241
Belarus
Ukraine
Russian Federation
Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)
46.171.158.4
56.244.754.5
47.345.945.8
4337.336.3
42.740.431.3
46.840.734.6
44.434.435.6
45.333.631.9
45.836.933.4
44.937.333.5
44.637.635.6
45.836.737
46.238.635.6
Belarus
Russian Federation
Ukraine
General (consolidated) government revenues (% of GDP)
51.252.347.24136.236.519.3
51.646.741.8199040.3199019.1
47.437.338.3199136.623.716.9
49.134.231.444.230.922.314.7
4933.935.236.127.415.513.8
49.438.232.934.625.616.312.4
4836.833.732.220.411.51995
45.534.333.730.418.8121996
-
%
. 4. %
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 3. Government expenditure, % of GDP
218
168
54
FDI in 1989-2004 per capita
Cumulative FDI inflows in 1989-2004 per capita, US$
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Belarus
Private sector share in GDP, %
19942.21.04
19952.333.5
1.533.7
1.13.23.34
199819981998
0.419991999
1.420002.7
1.320012.6
3.220022.7
3.22.72.7
3.33.22.7
Belarus
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Electricity tariffs, US cents per 1 kWh
19851985198519850.593
19900.8130.7850.7980.627
19950.7710.7520.7510.683
200020000.7750.7620.721
0.8090.7950.790.7770.745
0.8170.7950.7860.7660.755
. 3. , , ,
-
But Belarus and Uzbekistan are doing better (even though they are net importers of fuel), not to mention net exporters like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
Chart3
177
158
145
144
139
137
137
135
134
129
126
125
121
113
113
106
105
100
93
87
79
63
53
49
2006 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2006 as a % of 1989
Sheet1
2006 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
Turkmenistan177
Poland158
Estonia145
Albania144
Slovenia139
Slovakia137
Uzbekistan137
Belarus135
Hungary134
Czech Republic129
Armenia126
Kazakhstan125
Azerbaijan121
Romania113
Latvia113
Lithuania106
Croatia105
Bulgaria100
Russia93
Kyrgyzstan87
Tajikistan79
Ukraine63
Georgia53
Moldova49
CAUCASUS
CENTRAL ASIA
UNEMPL RATE
19947.4
19958.5
19969.6
199710.8
199811.8
199912.9
200010.6
20019.1
20028
20038.7
20048.2
20057.6
20067.2
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6HSEdataREVconsEXPconsREVfedEXPfedGDP
199336.143.3-7.2. (.) .. (.) .. (.) .. (.) .REVconsEXPconsREVfedEXPfed
199434.645-10.4199349.757.625.535.4171.5199328.979591836733.586005830914.868804664720.6413994169
199532.237.7-5.51994172.4230.481.7142.7610.7199428.229900114637.72719829713.378090715623.3666284591
199626.135-8.91995437486.1232.1275.31,428.50199530.591529576534.028701435116.247812390619.2719635982
199727.936.3-8.41996558.5652.7281.9356.22,007.80199627.816515589232.5082179514.040243052117.7408108377
199824.530.4-5.9-1000000019981997711.6839.5343.4436.62,342.50199730.377801494135.837780149414.659551760918.6382070438
199925.126.3-1.226.319991998686.8842.1325.9472.22,629.60199826.118040766732.023881959212.39351992717.957103742
200029.426.52.926.5200019991213.61258615.5666.94,823.20199925.161718361326.08226903312.761237352813.8269198872
200129.626.72.926.7200120002097.71960.11132.11029.27,305.60200028.713589575126.830102934715.496331581314.0878230399
200230.227.32.927.3200220012683.72419.415941321.98,943.60200130.006932331527.051746500317.822800661914.780401628
200331.129.81.329.8200320023519.23422.32204.72054.310,817.50200232.532470533931.63669979220.380864340218.9905246129
200432.346192814727.80520657024.540986244527.8052065702200420034135.63964.92583.12358.613,201.10200331.327692389330.034618327319.567308784917.8666929271
200535.227.57.727.5200520045427.34669.73426.32698.917,048.10200431.83521917427.391322200120.097840815115.8310896815
1.01.19981.01. 19991.01.20001.01.20011.01.20021.01.20031.01.20041.01.20051/1/061/1/0720057611.65941.45125.13512.221,614.70200535.214923177327.487774523823.711178040916.2491267517
Government133.5138.3132.8117.2104.297.79997.471.344.7200610642.883846276.34281.326,621.30200639.97851344631.493578450323.576234068216.0822349021
CB (including government debt to IMF)13.519.515.7129.77.57.88.2113.9200730880.70820070000
Banks18.2107.7911.314.224.832.550.2101.2
Non-financial enterprises14.82021.522.323.833.850.376.4126159.9
Total external debt179.9187.8177.8160.5149153.2182214.5258.5309.7
Real incomesReal wagesProductivity
20018.719.95.8
200211.116.25.1
20031510.97.3
20049.910.65.2
200511135.8
200610136.4
HDI1985199019952000200220032004
Belarus0.7850.7520.7750.790.7860.794
Ukraine0.7980.7510.7620.7770.7660.774
Russia0.8130.7710.7950.7950.797
China0.5930.6270.6830.7210.7450.7550.768
Cuba0.8090.8170.826
Goods and services, National accounts
REAL19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
ExpImpEXPIMP 12294.1231.8179.284.186.8103.210387.887.284.2
1994 143.5199467.550.6103.799.5101.9111.2109.5104.2110.3112.5111.8106.4107.2
24.53.7199581.160.9101.3100.482.683132.4118.7114.6117.7123.3117121.7
34.74.1199688.668.81995=100%19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
44.93.7199788.273.7EXP103.7103.1815105.1419485116.917846732128.0250421715133.4020939427147.1425096188165.5353233212185.0684914731196.9128749274211.0906019222
564.1199874.659.8IMP101.3101.705284.008495269.72705101692.3186155452109.5821966521125.5811973633147.8090692967182.2485824428213.230841458259.5019340544
66.64.2199975.639.5Goskomstat
75.83.9200010544.9
86.24.22001101.953.8
96.74.52002107.361
105.84.32003135.976.1
116.24.82004183.297.4
126.45.52005243.6125.3
1995 15.73.92006304.5163.9
26.34.5
375
46.74.4
56.94.9
67.15.3
76.65.5
86.75.2
97.25.1
107.15.7
117.86.4
127.86.7
1996 15.94.8
275.7
37.95.9
47.26.1
57.75.6
67.15.5
77.56
87.25.8
97.35.2
108.85.6
118.25.5
128.86.3
1997 16.74.7
26.55
37.15.5
46.86.1
56.65.4
66.85.7
77.56.3
876
97.16.1
107.96.7
118.26.4
128.88.1
1998 15.75.6
25.75.9
36.66.3
46.26
565.6
66.45.7
76.75.5
86.24.9
96.33
105.92.9
115.72.9
127.13.5
1999 14.52.7
24.93
35.83.5
46.63.3
55.12.9
65.44
76.33.2
86.23.1
96.43.1
1073.4
117.63.5
129.74
2000 16.82.9
283.4
39.13.7
48.33.4
58.53.4
68.73.6
78.63.6
89.13.8
993.8
108.94.1
1110.14.4
1210.14.9
2001 18.43.2
28.23.7
38.94.3
48.54.4
58.54.6
69.24.7
78.14.4
894.6
98.54.2
1084.8
118.45.1
128.25.7
2002 16.73.7
26.74
38.54.7
49.55.1
58.64.7
68.25
79.35.5
8105.1
99.75.1
109.95.9
119.35.7
12116.5
2003 19.64.7
29.95.2
311.66
410.26.2
510.55.9
611.16.1
711.46.7
8126.4
911.66.5
1012.67.1
1111.56.8
12148.5
2004 111.35.6
212.16.6
3147.8
414.27.8
513.67.4
614.97.9
715.48.4
816.88.3
916.38.3
1017.28.9
1117.89.4
1219.211.2
2005 114.27
216.28.5
319.810.2
419.99.7
520.39.6
619.410.1
721.610.9
821.610.8
921.710.8
1022.111.6
1122.212.4
1224.813.9
2006 120.98.4
22210.2
324.512.4
42411.4
527.112.9
625.414.6
725.913.7
828.214.5
925.814.6
1024.916
1125.516.3
1229.719.8
2007 121.411.6
223.614.2
326.417.2
427.716.5
530.317.6
Sheet1
14.788.1650654
15.687.7106063
19.387.98328176
17.287.98328176
15.187.89238994
15.986.52901264
15.786.8016881
15.586.16544536
15.186.89257992
14.387.43793084
15.586.52901264
15.386.89257992
1488.3467205357
15.289.1498725405
16.588.4359596473
18.289.3283507639
2088.0790032007
24.588.8821552056
24.589.5960680988
23.988.8821552056
23.188.9713943172
22.989.6853072105
16.890.577698327
17.891.0238938852
15.489.6853072105
1590.3992201037
16.989.4175898755
1690.0422636571
14.686.204981856
16.286.6511774143
18.481.1183524919
12.578.6196573656
12.776.0317231277
13.679.6905267054
12.882.2784609433
12.285.0448734045
11.686.7077695201
11.485.9065683643
10.888.3101718315
11.288.2211494809
11.990.5357305975
12.292.3161776102
11.993.6515128697
11.294.8978257786
11.295.8770716357
11.890.8027976494
11.594.0966246229
12.594.0076022723
12.995.7
13.799.4
15.597.8
17.196.8
19.699.1
21100.2
23.3100.5
23.7101.5
25101.8
25.9101.8
27.7102.7
27.9102.7
27.5103.1
27.6102.5
29.1102.4
30.9103.6
32.8106.1
34.3103.9
35.8105
36.8106.6
36.9105.7
36.8107
35.9107.5
34.5105.4
36.6105.4
36.4104.5
36.9106.2
37.3108.1
39.2109
42.2108.5
43.6113.2
43.3110.2
44.3110.0001996761
45.6109.4357212668
46.8108.9216178811
48.2108.9392336869
47.8109.9177899649
49.2111.0061549032
53.1112.2092835358
55.5113.0284185065
59.8113.564927961
64.9114.125543255
64.4114.9902629863
64.5116.325355638
62.8116
62.1116.8
64.9117.7
68.2118.8
76.9119.6
84120.1
86.338047
FOREX
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Source: Russian Economic Trends, Goskomstat, CBR.
Fig. 8. Index of industrial output (2000 = 100%, left scale) and foreign exchange reserves, bln dollars (right scale)
Sheet2
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
Source: (Popov, 2000).
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 5. Government expenditure, % of GDP
Sheet3
87
63
68
189
89
69
86
45
52
52
42
35
83
104
88
51
90
96
57
42
84
156
39
38
70
31
56
37
China (1979-86)
Vietnam
Armenia
Source: (Popov, 2000).
Decrease in the share of government revenues in GDP from 1989-91 to 1993-96, p.p.
1996 GDP as a % of 1989 GDP
Fig. 4 Change in government revenues and GDP
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5-10000000
26.325.126.3
26.529.426.5
26.729.626.7
27.330.227.3
29.831.129.8
27.805206570232.346192814727.8052065702
27.535.227.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
Surplus
Exp
Rev
Fig. 6. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6
84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5
82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1
82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4
86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8
90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3
94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3
98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7
105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2
109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8
115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2
119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2
12411010610310510477858476787866534441
128.411511411311211193929082828073554844
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
2006 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2006 as a % of 1989
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100124.5
110182.2
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 3. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%(left scale), and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $ (right log scale)
133.513.518.214.8
138.319.51020
132.815.77.721.5
117.212922.3
104.29.711.323.8
97.77.514.233.8
997.824.850.3
97.48.232.576.4
71.31150.2126
44.73.9101.2159.9
Government
CB (including government debt to IMF)
Banks
Non-financial enterprises
Russia's external debt, billion $
-31990
-51991
-14.51.95
-8.75.8
-12.76.5
-4.117.2
-3.415.3
0.917.8
-4.912.2
6.412.5
1028
5.134.5
4.747.8
7.376.9
7.2124.5
6.4182.2
GDP growth rates
FOREX
GDP growth rates
Gross reserves
Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale) and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $, left log scale
1994Q11994Q3
1994Q21994Q4
1994Q31302
1994Q41588.3333333333
-3.34101848051690.6666666667
-0.42178933941629.3333333333
-4.20599655161699.3333333333
0.62483090361824.6666666667
6.82199406141678
4.77661308231690.3333333333
4.26994498581848.3333333333
1.84993127812051.6666666667
3.40074247742075.3333333333
4.12671009832308.3333333333
0.93592158932168.3333333333
4.87698830651831.3333333333
1.19372104691805.6666666667
-0.33815686961820
9.69431637981395.3333333333
-3.85313926251265
-11.54082010981222.6666666667
-14.38728306751132.6666666667
-22.06188781081103.6666666667
-9.0799290021565.3333333333
-3.03893972951977.3333333333
-1.46397941862318.6666666667
-1.13343629142715
0.60967041882685.3333333333
2.29928714872962.6666666667
5.63605156582931.3333333333
4.64510112752519.6666666667
6.61154624372470
5.46303228462397.6666666667
3.38920939471793.3333333333
4.99084228841927
3.29717782062439.3333333333
1.86912339482633.6666666667
1.42740226242607.6666666667
0.5108013563139
-0.00170982822656
3.23256119632803
4.03393640752843.6666666667
5.05887887593191
6.48661472263480.6666666667
2005Q13943.3333333333
2005Q24149.6666666667
2005Q3
2005Q4
Cons-GDP
Oil price, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters
Difference between annual (quarter to previous year quarter) real private consumption and GDP growth rates (left scale)) and oil prices, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters (right scale)
142
126
121
120
115
114
112
112
111
103
100
98
94
90
89
89
82
80
72
69
57
45
44
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
Hungary
9.71950
19511951
19521952
9.11953
19541954
8.267
7.61956
7.81957
7.268
195968.6
7.11960
196169
196269
19631963
19641964
7.370
196670
19671967
19681968
19691969
8.268.93
197169.5
19721972
19731973
19741974
9.368.13
9.568
9.61977
9.71978
10.167.9
10.367.61
10.268
10.168.2
10.41983
10.867.9
10.668.4
9.869.6
9.969.8
10.169.5
1069.5
10.369.3
11.469.01
12.267.89
14.565.14
15.763.98
1564.64
14.265.89
13.866.64
13.667.02
14.765.93
15.465.27
15.665.3
16.364.8
16.465.1
1665.2
16.465
Mortality (left scale)
Life expectancy (right scale)
Mortality rate (per 1000)
Life exp
Moratlity rate, per 1000 inhabitants
Average life expectancy, years
Mortality rate (per 1000) and average life expectancy, years
19.98.75.8
16.211.15.1
10.9157.3
10.69.95.2
13115.8
13106.4
Real wages
Real incomes
Productivity
Annual growth rates of real wages, real incomes and productivity, %
40921-12589
1461-244413866
16574411-11584
168145775-35834
14928618-5434
1102-946-14108
-463-10334-21832
216-653-6449
-722960-1755
-1769-48806180
2073597-9419
FDI
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Inflows (+) abd outlows (-) of capital to and from Russia, mln. $
-12159
12883
-5516
11622
4676
-13952
-32629
-6886
1133
-469
-6749
Foreign investment, total
5014.285714285735.71428571430
35.675675675714.054054054135.675675675717.0886075949
46.30186410117.9194227327.84125075178.6218158067
47.09570957122.557755775625.74257425744.8261546445
52.089604480219.075953797725.43927196363.5144927536
52.332281176419.610200911923.80880805654.4372351002
54.753468516521.067235859121.97652081112.2523898904
58.739845298719.147199440315.29521514367.3165644684
53.543290761314.579532260714.830403051920.5498625344
46.187855891415.091162943518.693878668425.0423620026
49.166258515516.362037490521.852041497814.4422221939
51.317350836217.737419809420.121815552312.1370577901
50.401301028517.547320393320.742670421212.7506409277
49.589562478416.712801116821.07369978414.4478202984
48.670597657316.195431745521.131806835116.2819954253
Private consumption
Government consumption
Investment
Net export
Structure of Russian GDP, %
100100
94.863.1
93.944.5
90.930.6
88.527.3
86.223.5
88.622.5
86.712.4
85.711.5
90.520.2
96.723.6
103.423
109.926
12029.6
130.3233
Consumption
Investment
Growth of real investment and total (private and government) consumption, 1991=100%
5.71
2.70
80
2.70.396039604
6.9-0.1972386588
-1.62.9644268775
5.62.6871401152
10.23.9252336449
7.35.5755395683
61.7035775128
5.7-0.5025125628
9.61.0101010101
10.92.1666666667
15.211.0929853181
12.64.845814978
8.55.4621848739
11.212.7490039841
10.78.7161366313
4.18.3423618635
2.75.1
10.69.5147478592
14.314.5091225022
13.519.6509863429
12.813.1896005073
10.55.9383753501
9.60.7403490217
8.8-2.3622047244
7.8-2.1505376344
7.10.9340659341
7.90
7.3-0.8
81.2
9.1
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
455
1071
747
2049
437
488
821
4080
3693
1502
2128
1573
54
168
218
255
2995
1686
1217
333
1190
386
1413
112
76
300
42
Belarus
Czech
Hungary
Estonia
Slovak
Croatia
Uzbekistan
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Slovenia
Russia
Georgia
Ukraine
Poland
FDI inflow per capita in 1989-2004
Share of private sector in GDP, mid 2005, %
FDI inflow per capita in 1989-2004, $
Share of private sector in GDP and FDI inflow per capita in 1989-2004
100100100100100100100100100100
88.495.397.596.598.894.490.99696.61990
82.286.883.38587.482.280.391.285.41991
84.38277.982.484.67574.47873.71992
87.684.37581.985.176.171.171.263.21993
92.188.878.684.38779.172.362.248.71994
98.692.584.185.592.184.773.959.642.71995
104.695.789.686.696.588.266.457.538.51996
111.8100.195.190.695.682.161.75837.21997
117.1103.999.29594.676.163.955.336.61998