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111
This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to-date information about different areas of Turkish Economy.
This document is updated at the first day of every week.
Last update: January 07, 2019
January 2019
TURKISH ECONOMY
Republic of TurkeyMinistry of Treasury and Finance
333
CONTENTS Turkish Economy in the World.................................................................4 Demographic Profile.................................................................................7 Growth....................................................................................................11 Employment............................................................................................27 Inflation...................................................................................................39 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments...............................................50 Public Finance........................................................................................70 Debt Management..................................................................................79 Financial Sector....................................................................................113 Market Indicators..................................................................................125 Investment Environment.......................................................................136 Relationship with the IMF and EU........................................................142 Social Security......................................................................................145 Labor Market.........................................................................................154 R&D......................................................................................................166 Energy Sector.......................................................................................181
444
TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE WORLD
555
World’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dollar, 2017)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2018
666
Europe’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2017)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2018
777
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
888
25.7
15.8
15.6
15.1
15.1
15.0
14.5
14.7
14.9
13.7
63.5
65.2
61.5
63.9
65.7
63.9
64.3
61.4
61.5
59.9
10.8
19.0
22.9
21.0
19.2
21.1
21.3
23.9
23.7
26.4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Turkey
Russia
Europe
Romania
Slovak Rep.
Poland
Ukraine
Hungary
Czech Rep.
Bulgaria
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile* (as of 2013)
(*) Estimates
Source: UN
99
17.1
16.1
16.4
15.4
14.8
14.8
16.0
14.0
13.9
13.8
54.4
53.2
56.2
51.0
52.5
48.7
50.8
50.6
49.4
49.4
28.5
30.8
27.3
33.6
32.7
36.5
33.2
35.4
36.7
36.7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Russia
Ukraine
Turkey
Europe
Hungary
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Slovak Rep.
Poland
Romania
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Source: UN
Favourable DemographicsDemographic Profile (as of 2050)
101010
Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People)
82.4 83.4 84.4
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2019 2020 2021
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021
111111
GROWTH
121212
GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY)
-16.0
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.020
01 Q
1Q
320
02 Q
1Q
320
03 Q
1Q
320
04 Q
1Q
320
05 Q
1Q
320
06 Q
1Q
320
07 Q
1Q
320
08 Q
1Q
320
09 Q
1Q
320
10 Q
1Q
320
11 Q
1Q
320
12 Q
1Q
320
13 Q
1Q
320
14 Q
1Q
320
15 Q
1Q
320
16 Q
1Q
320
17 Q
1Q
320
18 Q
1Q
3
Source: TURKSTAT
131313
3.0
4.2
6.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1999-2004 2005-2010 2011-2017
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)
141414Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program2019-2021
GDP Growth Rate Projections (%)
2.3
3.5
5.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2019 2020 2021
151515
Volatility of Growth(Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates)
2.03
1.41
0.46
0
1
2
3
1999-2004 2005-2010 2011-2017
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
161616
3,581
4,698
5,961
7,3047,906
9,656
10,931
8,980
10,56011,205
11,588
12,48012,112
11,01910,88310,602
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Per Capita GDP (USD)
Source: TURKSTAT
171717
Per Capita GDP, 2017(Purchasing Power Parity, EU-27=100)
Source: EUROSTAT
Trend line: moving average
181818Source: OECD
Comparison of Europe and Turkey:Real GDP Growth (2001=100)
191919
Contribution to GDP Growth* (%)
-12.0
-7.0
-2.0
3.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Private Cons. Gov. Cons. Total Investment Net Export GDP Growth
Source: TURKSTAT*The contribution is calculated in accordance with the Chain Linked Volume Index.
202020
Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100)
Source: OECD
Private Consumption Export
İthalat
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import
212121
Productivity Index of Total Industry
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
22222222
Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector(Per Hour Worked)
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
23232323
Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted)*
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2017
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018
-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23Source: TURKSTAT
* Latest data as of October. In order to fully comply with the European Union in the Industrial Production Index, new dataseries have been announced since January 2018 and as in the European Union countries, TURKSTAT has begun toproduce the results of Industrial Production Index 2015 = 100 based on NACE Rev.2. The results of 2005-2017 wereestimated with the econometric model.
24242424
Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (Seasonally Adjusted, %)
Source: CBRT
55
60
65
70
75
80
8520
07-1 3 5 7 9 11
2008
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
09-1 3 5 7 9 11
2010
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
11-1 3 5 7 9 11
2012
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
13-1 3 5 7 9 11
2014
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
15-1 3 5 7 9 11
2016
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
17-1 3 5 7 9 11
2018
-1 3 5 7 9 11
24As of December 2018
25252525
Real Sector Confidence Index
Source: CBRT 25
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
08-1 3 5 7 9 11
2009
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
10-1 3 5 7 9 11
2011
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
12-1 3 5 7 9 11
2013
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
14-1 3 5 7 9 11
2015
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
16-1 3 5 7 9 11
2017
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
18-1 3 5 7 9 11
As of December 2018
26262626
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: TURKSTAT 26As of December 2018
50
60
70
80
9020
07-1 3 5 7 9 11
2008
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
09-1 3 5 7 9 11
2010
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
11-1 3 5 7 9 11
2012
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
13-1 3 5 7 9 11
2014
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
15-1 3 5 7 9 11
2016
-1 3 5 7 9 1120
17-1 3 5 7 9 11
2018
-1 3 5 7 9 11
272727
EMPLOYMENT
2828
Unemployment Rate * (%)
9.59.0 9.2
10.0
13.1
11.1
9.1
8.4
9.0
9.910.3
10.910.6
11.4
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017September
2018September
Source: TURKSTAT
* The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
29
Youth Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %)
Source: OECD
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.020
06-I II III IV
2007
-I II III IV20
08-I II III IV
2009
-I II III IV20
10-I II III IV
2011
-I II III IV20
12-I II III IV
2013
-I II III IV20
14-I II III IV
2015
-I II III IV20
16-I II III IV
2017
-I II III IV20
18-I II
EU (28 countries) OECD Turkey
303030
Employment * (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People)
Source: TURKSTAT 30
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
3020
08-1 4 7 10
2009
-1 4 7 1020
10-1 4 7 10
2011
-1 4 7 1020
12-1 4 7 10
2013
-1 4 7 1020
14-1 4 7 10
2015
-1 4 7 1020
16-1 4 7 10
2017
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7
*As of September 2018.The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
32.5
3.7
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
21222324252627282930313233
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7
Labor Force (Million People) Unemployed (Million People, right axis)
Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)
31Source: TURKSTAT
*As of September 2018.The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)
53.4
47.4
11.3
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
38
41
44
47
50
53
5620
08-1 4 7 10
2009
-1 4 7 1020
10-1 4 7 10
2011
-1 4 7 1020
12-1 4 7 10
2013
-1 4 7 1020
14-1 4 7 10
2015
-1 4 7 1020
16-1 4 7 10
2017
-1 4 7 1020
18-1 4 7
Labour Force Part icipation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%, right axis)
32Source: TURKSTAT
*As of September 2018. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
Agriculture (million people)
Employment Developments by Sector *
33
3.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.25.45.65.86.0
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7
Industry Employment (sea.adj.) Industry Employment
Industry (million people)
0.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.5
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7
Construction Employment (sea.adj.) Construction Employment
Construction (million people)
9.010.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.0
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7
Services Employment (sea.adj.) Services Employment
Services (million people)
Source: TURKSTAT
*As of September 2018. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.520
08-1 4 7 10
2009
-1 4 7 1020
10-1 4 7 10
2011
-1 4 7 1020
12-1 4 7 10
2013
-1 4 7 1020
14-1 4 7 10
2015
-1 4 7 1020
16-1 4 7 10
2017
-1 4 7 1020
18-1 4 7
Agriculture Employment (sea. adj.) Agriculture Employment
34
Sector Shares in Total Employment (%)
Sectoral Transition of Employment
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7
Employment Agriculture Industry Construction Services
Sector Contributions to Employment Growth(% points)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Agriculture Industry Construction Services
Source: TURKSTAT
35
Employment Status at Work (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Unpaid Family Worker Own Account Worker/Employer Regular Employee/Casual Employee
Source: TURKSTAT
Informal Employment Rate (%)
36
32
35
38
41
44
47
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Informal Employment
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture Non‐Agriculture (right axis)
Source: TURKSTAT
37
Labour Force Participation Rate (%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Female 23.3 23.6 23.6 24.5 26.0 27.6 28.8 29.5 30.8 30.3 31.5 32.5 33.6
Male 70.6 69.9 69.8 70.1 70.5 70.8 71.7 71.0 71.5 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.5
Total 46.4 46.3 46.2 46.9 47.9 48.8 49.9 50.0 50.8 50.5 51.3 52.0 52.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Source: TURKSTAT
40
45
50
55
60
65
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Labour Force Participation Rate by Education Level (2017, %)
38
Male Female
Higher Education
Note: The balloon size reflects the labour force share of the relevant group.
Higher Education
Source: TURKSTAT
393939
INFLATION
404040
Average Inflation in Periods (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
414141
20.8
15.9
9.8
6.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018* 2019 2020 2021
Year End CPI Forecasts in 2019-2021 (%)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021,September 2018.
(*) Realization estimate.
424242
Food, Energy and Core Inflation(December 2007 – December 2018, year-on-year percentage change)
Inflation: Recent Developments
Source: TURKSTAT
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35D
ec-0
7
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
Jun-
11
Dec
-12
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Food Energy Goods excluding energy and food
434343
Inflation: Recent Developments
Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items (December 2007 – December 2018, year-on-year change, percent)
Source: TURKSTAT
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-11
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Jun-
18
Dec
-18
Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels
444444
Inflation – Overall Trend*Inflation Trend
(January 2007 – December 2018, percentage change)
(*) As of December 2018. Monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-C index (3 month moving average) .
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2420
07-1 4 7 10
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7 10
(%)
28.5
13.7
0.0
57.8
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Food
Ener
gy
Toba
cco
Oth
ers
454545
Average of 2004 – 2017 December 2018
Inflation – Main Determinants
Contribution to CPI Inflation (Percentage Share)
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
28.9
14.4
7.5
49.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Food
Ener
gy
Toba
cco
Oth
ers
4646
Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change)
16.46
12.43
20.30
2
7
12
17
22
2720
07-1 4 7 10
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 7
2016
-1 720
17-1 7
2018
-1 720
19-1 7
2020
-1 7
CPI
12 Months
24
Months
Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT
(*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of December 2018.CBRT’s Survey of Expectations has been released once a month since January 2013.
2018 Target: 5.0 %
2019 Target: 5.0 %
474747
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
103
4710104
4710105
4710106
4710107
4 710108
4710109
4710110
4710111
4710112
4710113
4710114
4710115
4710116
4 710117
4710118
4710119
4710120
4710
12 months
24 months
Inflation Expectations (December 2018)
End year 21.28
12 months 16.46
24 months 12.43
Annual Inflation and Expectations (%)
Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations
Year End Target
484848
Inflation Developments in the World
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Ja
n-05
Jun-
05
Nov
-05
Apr
-06
Sep
-06
Feb-
07
Jul-0
7
Dec
-07
May
-08
Oct
-08
Mar
-09
Aug
-09
Jan-
10
Jun-
10
Nov
-10
Apr
-11
Sep
-11
Feb-
12
Jul-1
2
Dec
-12
May
-13
Oct
-13
Mar
-14
Aug
-14
Jan-
15
Jun-
15
Nov
-15
Apr
-16
Sep
-16
Feb-
17
Jul-1
7
Dec
-17
Turkey
World
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
Source: IMF, TURKSTAT
4949
Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures
* The total number of countries is 177. The ranking is in descending order.
Source: IMF
505050
FOREIGN TRADE and BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
5151
36.147.3
63.273.5
85.5
107.3
132.0
102.1113.9
134.9
152.5 151.8157.6143.8
142.5
157.0168.0
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
17520
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Annual Exports (Billion USD)
Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November
525252
Annual Imports (Billion USD)
Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November
51.669.3
97.5116.8
139.6
170.1
202.0
140.9
185.5
240.8236.5
251.7242.2
207.2198.6
233.8 229.6
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
535353
Export and Import Growth (Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5020
03-1 4 7 10
2004
-1 4 7 1020
05-1 4 7 10
2006
-1 4 7 1020
07-1 4 7 10
2008
-1 4 7 1020
09-1 4 7 10
2010
-1 4 7 1020
11-1 4 7 10
2012
-1 4 7 1020
13-1 4 7 10
2014
-1 4 7 1020
15-1 4 7 10
2016
-1 4 7 1020
17-1 4 7 10
2018
-1 4 7 10
Exports Imports
Source: TURKSTAT
545454
Exports in Europe and Turkey (2001=100)
Source: OECD
80100120140160180200220240260280300320
2001
Q1 Q3
2002
Q1 Q3
2003
Q1 Q3
2004
Q1 Q3
2005
Q1 Q3
2006
Q1 Q3
2007
Q1 Q3
2008
Q1 Q3
2009
Q1 Q3
2010
Q1 Q3
2011
Q1 Q3
2012
Q1 Q3
2013
Q1 Q3
2014
Q1 Q3
2015
Q1 Q3
2016
Q1 Q3
2017
Q1 Q3
2018
Q1
Turkey Hungary Poland SpainPortugal Italy Euro Area
555555
3.83.1
6.6
8.3
3.64.3
0
4
8
12
World Euro Area DevelopingAsia
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Latin America Turkey
Export Performance (Average Annual Growth Rate, 2005-2017)
Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018
565656
170.0182.0 191.0
204.4
0255075
100125150175200225
2018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P
Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018P: Program
(*) Realization estimate.
575757
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3519
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods
Imports (% of GDP)
Source: TURKSTAT
5858
Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl)
Source: Reuters
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J-02
O-0
2J-
03A
-04
J-05
O-0
5J-
06A
-07
J-08
O-0
8J-
09A
-10
J-11
O-1
1J-
12A
-13
J-14
O-1
4J-
15A
-16
J-17
O-1
7J-
18
595959
Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)
38.5 41.7 44.5 43.8 46.2 50.2 49.8 55.3
0.0
12.515.6 12.1 8.7
-22.6 -18.1-12.3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Reel Energy Imports with 2010 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports
Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
606060
Machinery Imports (Billion USD)
29.4
42.647.9 46.1
43.247.4 48.3
44.1
36.435.9
29.926.1
21.9
15.712.2
35.9
43.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996-2002
Average
20032004 20052006 20072008 2009 20102011 20122013 20142015 201620172018*
Source: TURKSTAT(*) Annualized as of November
616161
Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2017)
Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018
626262
-2.4-3.5
-4.2-5.7 -5.5 -5.1
-1.8
-5.8
-8.9
-5.5-6.7
-4.7
-3.7
-3.8
-5.6
1.0 -0.3-0.5
-1.1 -1.20.2
2.3
-1.4
-3.2
0.5
-1.5
0.5
0.1-1.1 -1.7
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
CA Balance/GDP CA Balance/GDP (Excluding Energy)
Current Account Balance / GDP (%)
Souce: CBRT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
636363(*) Figures represent IMF estimates. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018
Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2017)
646464
Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD)
Source: CBRT
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 J-O
2018 J-O
Current Account Balance -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.1 -63.6 -43.6 -32.1 -33.1 -47.4 -35.1 -27.2
Capital Inflows (Excluding Reserves) 48.8 49.7 -3.5 49.1 51.4 69.4 68.0 42.4 25.7 28.4 42.1 40.2 6.8
Foreign Direct Investment 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.2 13.7 13.6 13.1 18.0 13.3 10.9 9.4 9.2
Non-Bank Private Sector’s Net Credits 29.3 26.4 -13.0 -2.8 8.3 6.9 6.2 6.0 12.2 12.7 7.5 6.1 6.0
Other (Net) -2.5 3.5 0.9 42.8 26.9 48.8 48.3 23.2 -4.6 2.3 23.6 24.7 -8.4
Net Errors and Ommissions -0.3 2.0 2.3 -0.5 8.3 -1.8 1.0 1.1 9.8 11.0 0.7 -0.1 18.4
Bank’s Currency and Deposits 3.5 9.8 -6.7 -13.6 -0.2 -2.5 0.2 -0.6 14.1 7.0 5.6 2.4 12.5
Change in Reserves 8.0 -1.1 0.1 12.8 -1.8 20.8 9.9 -0.5 -11.8 0.8 -8.2 4.5 -15.2
656565
1.1 1.72.8
10.0
20.222.0
19.9
8.6 9.1
16.2
13.7 13.6 13.1
18.0
13.310.9 10.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993
-200
2Av
erag
e
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD)
Source: CBRT(*) Annualized as of October
65
666666
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
2018*
Short-Term Capital Long-Term Capital Direct Investments (Net) Portfolio Investments
Capital Inflows (Billion USD)
66Source: CBRT(*) Annualized as of October
676767
Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD)
(*) As of December 28, 2018.Source: CBRT
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120J
02 M SJ
03 M SJ
04 M SJ
05 M SJ
06 M SJ
07 M SJ
08 M SJ
09 M SJ
10 M SJ
11 M SJ
12 M SJ
13 M SJ
14 M SJ
15 M SJ
16 M SJ
17 M SJ
18 M S
$72.0 billion*
686868
-36.0
-26.0-23.5 -24.1
-40
-30
-20
-10
02018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P
Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
P: Program
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018
(*) Realization estimate.
696969
Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP)
-4.7
-3.3
-2.7 -2.6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
02018* 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P
P: Program
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Strategy and Budget Directorate, New Economy Program 2019-2021, September 2018
(*) Realization estimate.
707070
PUBLIC FINANCE
717171
Central Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targetsSource: Ministry of Finance, 2019-2021 NEP
11.611.2
8.6
5.0
1.00.6
1.6 1.8
5.3
3.5
1.31.9
1.0 1.1 1.0 1.11.5
1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.020
01
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
2019
*
2020
*
2021
*
727272
General Government Budget Deficit Excl. Privatization(% of GDP)
(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets
Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency , 2019-2021 NEP
12.2
10.6
7.8
4.2
0.60.2
1.52.4
5.6
3.2
0.61.3 1.3 1.1
0.6
1.7 2.02.6
1.8 2.1 1.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
737373
Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
Source: Eurostat
747474
General Government Deficit (% of GDP, 2015)
Source: Eurostat
-1.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8Ire
land
Gre
ece
UK
Port
ugal
Spai
n
Latv
ia
Pola
nd
Slov
akia
Lith
uani
a
Fran
ce
Rom
ania
Slov
enia
S. C
ypru
s
Net
herla
nds
Cze
ch R
ep.
Italy
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
Hun
gary
Cro
atia
Bel
gium
Mal
ta
Bul
garia
Turk
ey
Den
mar
k
Finl
and
Luxe
mbo
urg
Esto
nia
Swed
en
Maastricht criterion: 3 %
7575
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets
Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency , 2019-2021 NEP
7.0
11.8
9.7
7.1
3.5
-0.1
-1.8
0.1
1.5
4.8
2.2
0.10.9 0.4 0.5 0.0
1.01.8
2.71.6 1.7 1.5
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1990
-200
0 Av
g.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
2019
*
2020
*
2021
*
767676
2003-2015 Average: 2.1
Public Sector Primary Surplus (Program Definition)(% of GDP)
(*) 2019-2021: New Economy Program targets
Source: For pre-2012 Undersecretariat of Treasury, for 2012 and onwards Strategy and Budget Presidency
0.5
4.65.3
4.6 4.33.0
1.5
-1.0
0.7 1.60.9 0.9
0.5 0.6
-0.6-1.0
-2.1
-0.2
0.20.8
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1993
- 20
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
2019
*
2020
*
2021
*
777777
Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)
Source: Privatization Authority
8.2
60.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1986 - 2003 2004 - 2017
787878
Medium Term Program (% GDP)
Source: Strategy and Budget Presidency, New Economy Program 2019-2021
2018 2019 2020 2021
Central Government Budget Balance -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.7
Central Government Revenues 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.7
Central Government Expeditures 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.4
Central Government Primary Balance (IMF Definition) -1.0 0.0 0.3 0.8
Central Government Revenues (IMF Definition) 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.3
Central Government Primary Expenditures (IMF Definition) 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.5
Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition) -2.1 -0.2 0.2 0.8
797979
DEBT MANAGEMENT
808080
EU Defined General Government Debt (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
72.1
65.7
57.7
50.8
44.7
38.2 38.1
43.9
40.136.5
32.7 31.428.8 27.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 29.2
32.6
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
Maastricht Criteria : 60%
818181
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP, 2018 Q1)
Source: Eurostat (Updated: July 20, 2018, Ministry of Treasury and Finance (As of June 29, 2018)For 2018 estimates of USA, Japan, Canada; IMF World Economic Outlook (July 2018)
828282
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)
Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 07-20-2018); Ministry of Treasury and Finance, (As of June 29, 2018)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2EU (28 Countries) 81,4 83,8 85,7 86,4 84,4 83,3 81,6 81,0Euro Area (EU-19) 86,6 89,7 91,6 91,8 89,9 89,1 86,8 86,3Greece 172,1 159,6 177,4 178,9 176,8 180,8 178,6 179,7Italy 116,5 123,4 129,0 131,8 131,6 131,4 131,2 133,1Portugal 111,4 126,2 129,0 130,6 128,8 129,2 124,8 124,9Belgium 102,6 104,3 105,5 107,6 106,6 106,6 103,8 106,3France 87,8 90,6 93,4 94,9 95,6 98,2 98,5 99,1Spain 69,5 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,3 99,0 98,1 98,1United Kingdom 80,8 84,1 85,2 87,0 87,9 87,9 87,4 86,7Austria 82,4 81,9 81,3 84,0 84,8 83,0 78,3 76,5Hungary 80,5 78,4 77,1 76,6 76,6 75,9 73,3 73,8Germany 78,6 79,9 77,4 74,5 70,8 67,9 63,9 61,5Netherlands 61,7 66,2 67,7 67,9 64,6 61,9 57,0 54,0Turkey 36,5 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28,3 29,2
838383
EU – Defined Debt Stock Targets (% of GDP)
Source: New Economy Program, September 2018.
31.1
28.528.2
27.2
24
26
28
30
32
2018 2019 2020 2021
848484
Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
34.4 23.218.5
10.06.2
3.1 2.72.5
0.8
0.6
‐3.0 ‐4.4 ‐3.4 ‐2.4 ‐0.7
0.0
‐0.1
0.4 5.8
59.9
53.6
47.6
40.1
32.728.2 26.8
30.927.4
20.815.3 10.9
9.16.9 8.4 8.4 8.4
8.913.7
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
702002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
TRY FX Total
858585
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Billion TL 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
I- Public Gross Debt Stock 257 297 333 351 366 355 407 465 497 546 563 623 650 722 820 955 993 1057 1228• Central Government 243 283 317 332 346 334 381 442 474 519 533 586 613 678 760 876 913 970 1121• Rest of the Public Sector 14 14 16 19 20 21 26 23 23 27 30 37 37 44 60 78 80 87 107
II- Assets and Public Sector Deposit 42 47 58 81 108 107 140 156 179 256 322 426 463 561 601 692 722 754 739• Central Bank Net Assets 25 25 28 31 46 42 60 66 86 143 190 271 304 376 397 445 482 508 480• Public Sector Deposits 11 13 17 32 38 35 42 48 47 60 72 84 77 92 100 130 119 122 134• Unemployment Insurance Fund 5 9 13 18 24 31 38 42 46 54 61 70 81 93 103 117 121 125 125
III- Public Net Debt Stock 215 251 275 270 258 248 267 309 317 290 240 197 187 161 219 262 272 303 489
868686
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
215251
275 270 258 248267
309 317290
240
197 187161
219
262 272303
489
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
878787
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)
14.4
12.5
9.8
6.85.8 5.5 5.1 5.3
4.23.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017*Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
(*) Forecast
888888
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%)
85.7
70.9
56.3
38.233.4 31.9 30.1 30.9
22.916.6 17.4 15.3 14.2 13.0
10.9 10.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
(*) Provisional
898989
48.9 53.9 50.2 54.0 55.8 57.0 53.5 56.0 59.2 59.8 61.5 65.2 67.6 69.8 73.7 75.1
51.1 46.1 49.8 46.0 44.2 43.0 46.5 44.0 40.8 40.2 38.5 34.8 32.4 30.2 26.3 24.9
0
25
50
75
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Nov.
Fixed Floating
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
909090
53.6 58.4 62.3 62.768.6 66.1 70.8 73.3 70.3 72.5 68.7 67.7 64.9 61.7 61.1
55.2
46.4 41.6 37.7 37.331.4 33.9 29.2 26.7 29.7 27.5 31.3 32.3 35.1 38.3 38.9
44.8
0
25
50
75
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Nov.
TL Foreign Exch.
Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
919191
Sensitivity of General Government Debt to Shocks
2001 2017
Change in real exchange rate app/depby 5 percentage points
+ / - 2.1 points + / - 0.5 points
Change in TL interest rate by 500bp + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.8 points
Change in GDP growth rate by 2 percentage points
+ / - 1.6 points + / - 0.5 points
Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by EU standards) measuredby deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2017 stock figures.
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
929292
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
4.4
7.1
10.3
13.6 13.4
10.38.6
12.4
17.3
23.221.5 21.5
17.3 17.319.4
14.8
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
939393
Average Maturity of Borrowing
Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years)
(*) As of November 2018(**) As of November 2018
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
9.411.614.8
27.728.034.031.7
35.3
44.144.7
60.8
74.368.5
71.867.4
71.2
61.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
8,29,510,1
12,29,9
8,0 8,0 7,3
17,616,5
22,4
14,214,8
9,1
20,620,2
16,4
19,7
14,4
18,1
8,610,0
3,0
9,06,6
5,0
15,315,7
7,08,6
10,0
20,0
10,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
**
Euro Dollar Yen
949494Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock(*)(**) (Months)
6.68.0 8.2
10.2
8.1 7.5
10.6
12.5
15.0
23.1
28.9
30.3 30.731.4 31.1
32.2 32.1 31.631.0 31.131.1 30.7
30.229.5 29.9
6
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
Dec
04
Dec
05
Dec
06
Dec
07
Dec
08
Dec
09
Dec
10
Dec
11
Dec
12
Dec
13
Dec
14
Dec
15
Dec
16
Dec
17
Jan
18
Feb
18
Mar
18
Apr
18
May
18
Jun
18
Jul 1
8
Agu
18
Sep
18
Oct
18
Nov
18
(*) Macaulay duration(**) Excluding non-cash securities, CPI indexed bonds/lease certificates and gold bonds/lease certificates.
959595Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Duration of External Bond Stock* (Months)
49.2
58.6
67.0
70.7
73.871.0
75.8 76.177.5
76.2
77.6
78.0
77.3
79.0
78.6
78.179.4
82.1 81.7 80.980.1 79.6 79.2 79.4
78.7
45
55
65
75
85D
ec.0
4
Dec
.05
Dec
.06
Dec
.07
Dec
.08
Dec
.09
Dec
.10
Dec
.11
Dec
.12
Dec
.13
Dec
.14
Dec
.15
Dec
.16
Dec
17
Jan
18
Feb
18
Mar
18
Apr
18
May
18
Jun
18
Jul 1
8
Agu
18
Sep
18
Oct
18
Nov
18
(*) Macaulay duration
969696
Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
12.8 12.4 11.8
19.622.3
25.7 24.4 25.0
30.9 31.133.7
47.0
55.0 55.151.9 50.5
47.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Nov
.
979797
Cost of External Borrowing (%)
EURODOLLAR
4.5 4.23.4
5.35.06.0
5.45.3
6.3
9.9 9.9
3
4
56
7
8
9
1011
12
13
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
(*) As of January 2019
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
10.7
7.0 7.36.2 5.8
4.94.3
5.84.9
5.76.3
4.7
10.1
8.1
6.97.37.3
3
4
5
6
78
9
10
11
12
13
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
989898
TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates (Comp. Ann., %)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
J02
J N A S F J D M O M A J07
J N A S F J D M O M A J12
J N A S F J D M O M A J17
J N A S
Monthly Average Yearly Cumulative
999999
Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %)
Note: - The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates. Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and Survey of Expectations of CBRT.- Before 2013. the calculations are only based on zero coupon bonds however. as of 2013 they’re based on zero coupon bonds and 2-year fixed coupon bonds together.
Source: CBRT, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5020
02-1 5 9
2003
-1 5 920
04-1 5 9
2005
-1 5 920
06-1 5 9
2007
-1 5 920
08-1 5 9
2009
-1 5 920
10-1 5 9
2011
-1 5 920
12-1 5 9
2013
-1 5 920
14-1 5 9
2015
-1 5 920
16-1 5 9
2017
-1 5 920
18-1 5 9
Real Interest Rate
100100100
0.4 0.0
-0.6
2.6
8.0
5.0
-2.4
-3.6-3.1 -2.6
1.0
-0.5-1.4 -1.8
-1.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
101101101
Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
16.2
13.8
10.2
7.2
1.90.5 0.0
4.5
0.6
3.2
16.2
11.2
5.5 5.13.6
0
4
8
12
16
20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q3
13,935
102
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Million USD 2018 Q3
PUBLIC 10.690
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 300LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 603PUBLIC BANKS 8.613SOEs 1.174
PRIVATE 3.246BANKS 3.246
GENERAL TOTAL 13.935
103
104
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total Guaranteed Payments (%)
* Annualized as of November 2018Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
1.30.92.62.83.4
51.9
27.3
18.116.719.7
24.7
16.4
22.1
8.2
3.96.4
5.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Nov.2018
Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD)
105
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Nov
. 201
8
Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other
106106106
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
5.98.8
12.9
8.0 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.0 8.3 8.6 7.95.0
0.4
3.9 3.8 3.91.1
13.4
12.4
10.0
13.3 15.313.6
17.4
19.1
17.0 15.9
13.9
15.0
16.3
13.8 13.8 13.617.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Overdue projected
19.3
21.222.9
21.322.4
20.9
25.6
28.1
25.3
21.8
24.5
20.0
16.717.7 17.6 17.5
18.4
107107
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (November 2018)
By Borrowers (%) By Source (%)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
108108108
Collections (Million TL)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
417 35
1.5611.937
104
2.188
1.9701.503
5.249
2.053
3.198
3.084
1.7942.641
1.872
2.606 2.446 2.492
1.118 1.6672.256
1.471
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Non-Cash Cash
109109109
Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT
Billion USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q2TOTAL 291.7 305.3 342.1 392.6 405.7 400.3 409.2 454.8 466.7 457.0 SHORT TERM 77.2 83.1 102.4 133.3 135.1 105.4 101.4 118.1 122.3 119.7 LONG TERM 214.5 222.2 239.7 259.4 270.6 294.9 307.8 336.7 344.4 337.2 PUBLIC SECTOR 89.1 95.8 106.3 118.9 121.3 116.6 123.4 136.6 141.0 139.2 SHORT TERM 4.3 8.6 13.3 20.6 21.4 18.1 19.7 22.1 24.0 24.1 LONG TERM 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.6 103.7 114.4 116.9 115.1 CBRT 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 SHORT TERM 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LONG TERM 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 PRIVATE SECTOR 191.1 200.2 228.7 268.5 281.9 282.3 285.0 317.6 325.1 317.2 SHORT TERM 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.8 113.3 87.1 81.5 95.9 98.2 95.5 LONG TERM 119.7 126.9 140.7 156.6 168.6 195.2 203.5 221.7 226.9 221.7
110110110
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT
Gross External Debt Stock / GDP (%)
54.8
45.9
40.0
34.2
38.036.9 36.2
41.6
37.836.7
39.341.3
43.4
46.447.4
53.4 52.951.8
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
111111111
Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance, CBRT
%37.4
%30.7
%25.6
%19.8
%19.8
%19.8
%19.5
%22.6 %22.4 %22.0
%21.8
%24.2
%26.2
%29.4%29.5
%34.2
%34.4%34.1
%10.0
%15.0
%20.0
%25.0
%30.0
%35.0
%40.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
112112112
External Debt Ratios (%)
% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2018 Q2
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 37,8 36,7 39,3 41,3 43,4 46,4 47,4 53,4 52,9 51,8
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 24,7 24,1 26,3 28,2 30,2 32,8 33,0 37,3 36,9 36,0
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 256,2 226,3 224,4 258,6 257,4 278,3 287,1 289,7 291,1 282,4
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 167,8 148,4 150,0 176,9 178,9 196,3 200,0 202,3 202,8 196,0
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**) 27,7 25,7 29,2 28,3 26,4 23,2 22,5 18,5 18,2 16,5
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
(**)104,5 94,4 97,6 83,3 79,1 88,2 90,8 71,3 69,4 63,1
(*) Source for export data is CBRT's Balance of Payments Statistics, April 2018.(**) Source for reserves data is CBRT's International Investment Position Statistics, April 2018.
113113113
FINANCIAL SECTOR
25.1
30.928.2
23.721.9
18.9 18.020.6
19.016.6
17.915.3 16.3 15.6 15.6
16.8 16.418.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017-11
2018-11
114114114
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Source: BRSA
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2820
06-0
1
2006
-08
2007
-03
2007
-10
2008
-05
2008
-12
2009
-07
2010
-02
2010
-09
2011
-04
2011
-11
2012
-06
2013
-01
2013
-08
2014
-03
2014
-10
2015
-05
2015
-12
2016
-07
2017
-02
2017
-09
2018
-04
2018
-11
115115
Target Rate 12 percent
Legal Limit 8 percent
Operational risk included
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Source: BRSA
116116116
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected Emerging Markets (%, 2018*)
Source: IMF-FSI, BRSA* Novwmber of 2018 figures or latest available.
20.0
18.918.4 18.2
17.6 17.6 17.2 17.2 17.0
15.714.8 14.6
13.613.0
12.5
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0In
done
sia
Rom
ania
Colo
mbi
a
Pola
nd
Turk
ey
Czec
h Re
p.
Thai
land
Hung
ary
Braz
il
Mal
aysi
a
Mex
ico
Kore
a
Indi
a
Chin
a
Chile
Russ
ia
117117117
Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%)
(*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates. Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)
Source: BRSA
36.3
51.056.0
65.7
72.675.3 77.0 79.6 81.4 81.6 82.0 81.6 81.1
77.6 77.6 76.5 75.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11
118118118
Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%)
Source: BRSA
11.3
18.2
15.8
12.1
21.0
24.8
18.6
22.8
20.0
15.5 15.714.2
12.311.3
14.315.9
14.813.9
0
10
20
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017-11
2018-11
119119119
Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%)
Source: BRSA
23.026.5
32.437.8
43.849.1 50.2
47.152.2
56.1 58.060.5 62.2 63.0 63.5 64.4 62.1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11
120120120
Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD)
(*) As of December 28, 2018.Source: BRSA
-549
187
-71 -63
141
-217
16408
41315
1,590
-363
-2,870
436
-1,381
627
2,842
-3000
-2400
-1800
-1200
-600
0
600
1200
1800
2400
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
121121121
Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)
Source: BRSA
17.5
11.5
6.04.7
3.7 3.5 3.75.3
3.72.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.7
0
4
8
12
16
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-11
122122122
Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest Coverage* (Earnings Before Interest and Tax / Interest Expenses) Ratios (%)
(*) Provisional Statistics
Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts
050
100150200250300350400450
Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio
123123123
Household Liabilities (% of GDP)
10 12 13 15 17 18 19 21 20 19 18 18
65 66 6771 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Turkey Euro Area
Source: CBRT, ECB
124124124
Total Housing Loans (% of GDP)
Source: FED, ECB, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK National Statistics,CBRT, TURKSTAT, BRSA, HDAT
(*) Total housing loans for 2010 comprises of housing credits extended by banks and consumer finance companies as well as Household liabilities to HDAT due to HDAT’s housing sales with long term maturity.
83.6
71.8
40.7
6.20.2
60.352.1
29.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
UK US Euro Zone Turkey*
2001 2010
125125125
MARKET INDICATORS
126126126
Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD)
Source: CBRT
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.0Ja
n-03
May
-03
Sep-
03Ja
n-04
Jun-
04O
ct-0
4Fe
b-05
Jun-
05N
ov-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
l-06
Dec
-06
Apr
-07
Aug
-07
Dec
-07
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Oct
-09
Feb-
10Ju
n-10
Oct
-10
Mar
-11
Jul-1
1N
ov-1
1A
pr-1
2A
ug-1
2D
ec-1
2A
pr-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Feb-
15Ju
n-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Jul-1
6N
ov-1
6M
ar-1
7A
ug-1
7D
ec-1
7A
pr-1
8A
ug-1
8Ja
n-19
127127127
Interest Rates (%)
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72Ja
n-03
May
-03
Sep-
03Ja
n-04
Jun-
04O
ct-0
4Fe
b-05
Jun-
05N
ov-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
l-06
Dec
-06
Apr
-07
Aug
-07
Dec
-07
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Oct
-09
Feb-
10Ju
n-10
Oct
-10
Mar
-11
Jul-1
1N
ov-1
1A
pr-1
2A
ug-1
2D
ec-1
2A
pr-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Feb-
15Ju
n-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Jul-1
6N
ov-1
6M
ar-1
7A
ug-1
7D
ec-1
7A
pr-1
8A
ug-1
8Ja
n-19
Domestic Debt Securities Secondary Market Rates
128128128
BIST 100 Index
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000Ja
n-03
May
-03
Sep-
03Ja
n-04
Jun-
04O
ct-0
4Fe
b-05
Jun-
05No
v-05
Mar
-06
Jul-0
6De
c-06
Apr-
07Au
g-07
Dec-
07M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9O
ct-0
9Fe
b-10
Jun-
10O
ct-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
l-11
Nov-
11Ap
r-12
Aug-
12De
c-12
Apr-
13Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Feb-
15Ju
n-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Jul-1
6No
v-16
Mar
-17
Aug-
17De
c-17
Apr-
18Au
g-18
Jan-
19
Source: Borsa Istanbul
129129129
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
Source: JP Morgan
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
J-04
A-0
4M
-05
O-0
5M
-06
D-0
6J-
07F-
08S-
08A
-09
N-0
9J-
10J-
11A
-11
M-1
2O
-12
M-1
3D
-13
J-14
F-15
S-15
A-1
6N
-16
J-17
J-18
A-1
8
(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)
EMBI+
EMBI+ Turkey
130130130
Secondary Market and CBRT Policy Rate
Source: CBRT, Treasury
246
8101214
1618202224
262830
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5O
ct-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
l-06
Dec
-06
Apr
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
Jun-
08N
ov-0
8M
ar-0
9A
ug-0
9Ja
n-10
May
-10
Oct
-10
Mar
-11
Jul-1
1D
ec-1
1M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Feb-
13Ju
l-13
Nov
-13
Apr
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
Jun-
15N
ov-1
5M
ar-1
6A
ug-1
6D
ec-1
6M
ay-1
7O
ct-1
7Fe
b-18
Jul-1
8D
ec-1
8
Com
poun
ded
Inte
rest
Rat
es (%
)
Secondary Market Rates CBRT Policy Rates
131131131
Credit RatingStandard & Poor’s Credit Rating
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
N
SP
BB-
N
SP
B
NSP
B-
N
SP
BB
N
SP
BB+
N
SP
B+
132132132
Rating Map (as of 7 January 2019)
A2 Botswana, Poland, Slovakia A Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia A IcelandBermuda, Ireland
A3 Malta, Mexico, Peru, Lithuania, Latvia A- Botswana, Saudi Arabia A- Poland, Latvia, LithuaniaIceland Malta, Spain, Poland Slovenia, Spain
Baa1 Thailand, Mauritius, Slovenia BBB+ Thailand, Peru BBB+ Thailand, MexicoSpain Trianidad & Tobago, Mexico Peru
Baa2 India, Bulgaria, Panama BBB Panama, Italy, India BBB Kazakhstan, PanamaUruguay, Colombia Philippines, Uruguay Italy, Colombia, BulgariaIndonesia, Philippines Indonesia, Philippines, Portugal
Baa3 Italy, South Africa BBB- Morocco, Kazakhstan, Russia, Cyprus BBB- Morocco, India, RomaniaRomania, Hungary, Oman Romania, Indonesia, Bulgaria CyprusKazakhstan, Bahamas, Portugal Hungary, Portugal, Colombia Uruguay, Russia, Hungary, San Marino
Ba1 Morocco, Guatemala, BB+ Bahamas, Crotia BB+ Azerbaijan, Paraguay, OmanTrianidad & Tobago Azerbaijan South Africa, Namibia, CroatiaRussia, Paraguay, Namibia
Ba2 Brazil, Croatia, Georgia BB Paraguay BB Turkey (negative), Costa Rica, Guatemala,VietnamAzerbaijan, Cyprus Oman, South Africa, Serbia Serbia
Ba3 Turkey (negative), Bangladesh, Bolivia, Fiji BB- Bangladesh, Georgia, BB- Georgia, Suriname, BoliviaSenegal, Dominican Republic Guatemala, Vietnam, Brazil, Bolivia Bangladesh, BrazilSerbia, Vietnam Dominican Republic, Honduras Dominican Republic, Greece, Bahrain
B1 Jordan, Montenegro, Suriname B+ Turkey (stable), Senegal, Fiji B+ Rwanda, Tunisia, MaldivesHonduras, Albania, Costa Rica Costa Rica, Bahrain, Greece Ecuador, Nigeria
Albania, Jordan, Montenegro
B2 Cambodia, Nicaragua, Argentina, Tunisia, Bahrain B Bosnia Herzegovina, Cambodia, Jamaica, Egypt, Sri Lanka, B Egypt, Jamaica, Argentina, Angola
Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Nigeria, Sri Lanka Papua New Guinea, Tunisia, Rwanda, Pakistan, BelarusSuriname, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Mongolia, Argentina
Belarus, Mongolia, Sri Lanka
B3 Moldova, Egypt, Pakistan, St Vincent/Grenadine, Mongolia B- Lebanon, Angola, Republic of Congo B- Lebanon, UkraineBosnia Herzegovina, El Salvador, Greece, Belarus Nicaragua, El Salvador Nicaragua, PakistanEcuador, Belize, Jamaica, Lebanon, Angola Ukraine, Belize, Ecuador Suriname, El Salvador
Caa1 Ukraine, Gabon CCC+ CCC+Caa2 Cuba, Republic of Congo CCC CCCCaa3 Barbados CCC- CCC-Ca CC CC Republic of CongoC Venezuela C C
SD Barbados, Venezuela DDDD/RD Venezuela
Source: Bloomberg
Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch
133133133
EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other CountriesChange (bp) (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)
Source: Bloomberg
501
307
179
178
119
69
65
37
8
5460
-107
-800 -400 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400
Venezuela
Ukrayna
Arjantin
Türkiye
EMBI+
G. Afrika
Meksika
Rusya
Brezilya
Kolombiya
Filipinler
134134134
Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets)% Change (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)
Source: Bloomberg
79.6
75.7
63.8
56.1
47.9
46.2
35.5
16.9
9.9
4.4
-44.5
-51.2
-52
81.6
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
G. Afrika
ABD (DJI)
Hindistan
Türkiye
Macaristan
Meksika
Brezilya
Rusya
Malezya
G. Kore
Polonya
Japonya
Çek Cumh.
Çin
135135135
Currency Markets (Against USD)% Change (02.01.2008 – 07.01.2019)
Source: Bloomberg
-356.9
-175.4
-109.8
-103.9
-77.7
-76.9
-62.8
-52.9
-24.7
-24.2
-19.4
1.4
6.1
100.0
-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
Türkiye
Rusya
Brezilya
G. Afrika
Meksika
Hindistan
Macaristan
Polonya
Çek Cumh.
Malezya
G. Kore
Japonya
Çin
Euro
136136136
INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
137137137
Starting a Business (Number of Procedures)
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018
11.5
11
8
8
7.8
7
7
7
7
6
5.2
5
5
4.9
0 4 8 12
India
Brazil
Czech Republic
Crotia
Mexico
China
Turkey
South Africa
Bulgaria
Hungary
Europe&Central Asia
Thailand
Poland
OECD (High Income)
138138138
Starting a Business (Duration, Days)
45
37
29.8
23
22.9
10.1
10.1
9
8.5
8.4
7
7
6.5
4.5
0 10 20 30 40
South Africa
Poland
India
Bulgaria
China
Europe&Central Asia
Russia
Czech Republic
OECD (High Income)
Mexico
Croatia
Hungary
Turkey
Thailand
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018
139139139
Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita)
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2018
17
12.8
12
6.2
5.4
5
4.4
3.1
1.2
1.1
1
0.6
0 5 10 15 20
Mexico
Turkey
Poland
Thailand
Hungary
Brazil
Europe&Central Asia
OECD (High Income)
Bulgaria
Russia
Czech Rep.
China
140140140
Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2016)
Source: OECD
5.4
11.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Turk
eyPo
land
Chi
leSl
oven
iaH
unga
ryM
exic
oSl
ovak
R.
Chz
ech
R.
Esto
nia
Kor
eaG
reec
eSp
ain
Japa
nIs
rael
Port
ugal
Irlea
ndN
ethe
rland
sFr
ance
OEC
D*
UK
Avu
stria
Ger
man
yU
SASw
itzer
land
Luxe
mbu
rgIta
lyN
orw
ayC
anad
aFi
nlan
dSw
eden
Bel
gium
Aus
tral
ia*
New
Zel
and
Icel
and
Den
mar
k
141141141
Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2016)
(*) Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain.
Source: OECD
05
101520253035
Total Tax Revenue Taxes on Income andProfits
Taxes on Goods andServices
Turkey OECD Peer Group*
142142142
RELATIONS with the IMF and EU
143143143
Relations with the IMF
Arrangements Duration
Amount Approved
(Million SDR)
Amount Drawn(Million SDR)
Repurchases(Million SDR)
Projected Payments
(Million SDR)
17th Stand-By Arrangement
(12.1999 - 02.2002) 15,038 11,739 11,739 0
18th Stand-by Arrangement (02.2002 - 02.2005) 12,821 11,914 11,914 0
19th Stand-by Arrangement
(05.2005 - 05.2008) 6,662 6,662 6,662 0
TOTAL 34,522 30,315 30,315 0
Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance
144144144
For 1 Chapter1- Science and Research
For 12 Chapters
For 2 Chapters1- Education and Culture,2- Economic and Monetary Policy
For 8 Chapters
Remaining chapters
EU Accession Process
Negotiations were opened and provisionally closed
Negotiations were opened provisionally but closingbenchmarks
Submission of our Position Papers
Opening benchmarks
Awaiting for the screening reports
I. Screening process: 3 October 2005 - 13 October 2006
II. Accession Talks :
1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy,2- Statistics, 3- Financial Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection, 5- Trans-European Networks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks). 7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks) 8- Free Movement of Capital 9- Information Society & Media 10-Taxation, 11- Environment, 12- Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy
145145145
SOCIAL SECURITY
146146146
Social Security Reform
Uniform norm and standards for workers. civil servants and the self employed.
Gradual increase in retirement age to 65. Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %. The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth Indexation of pensions by CPI. Universal health insurance (Covering entire population). Introduction of copayments for health care. Global budget in some health expenditures.
Main Features
147147147
Decreasing Pension System Deficits (2007-2075,% of GDP)
Source: World Bank, 2007
Before the Reform
After the Reform
148
Budget Transfers to Social Security Institution* (% of GDP)
*Deficit Financing, State Contribution, Billed Payments, Employment Incentives, General Health Insurance Premiums for Poor. Compensation for Tax Debate. Additional Allowance
NEP: New Economic Program
Source: SSI, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
149149
Net Pension Replacement Rates (2016)
Net Pension Replacement Rate: The individual net pension entitlement divided by net pre-retirement earnings which are calculated based on 40 years of active labour (OECD)* The Half of Average Income Source:OECD. Pensions at a Glance, 2017
Low Income Earner* Average Income Earner
99.1
73.2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
DenmarkNetherlands
ChinaIsrael
TurkeyLuxembourg
AustraliaItaly
PortugalBrazil
AustriaHungary
Czech RepublicIceland
Slovak RepublicNew Zealand
SpainEstonia
OECD ‐ AverageFranceIrelandFinlandNorwayKorea
BelgiumSwedenCanadaGreece
United StatesSwitzerland
SloveniaLatvia
GermanyRussiaJapan
United KingdomChile
PolandMexico
South Africa
102.1
62.9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
TurkeyNetherlands
PortugalItaly
AustriaHungary
LuxembourgSlovak Republic
ChinaSpain
DenmarkBrazil
IcelandIsrael
FranceBelgiumFinland
OECD ‐ AverageCzech Republic
LatviaEstoniaSloveniaSwedenGreeceCanada
GermanyUnited States
NorwayKorea
SwitzerlandNew Zealand
AustraliaIrelandChileJapanRussiaPolandMexico
United KingdomSouth Africa
150150
Minimum Retirement Age for Men* (2016)
*Future retirement age for men who entered the labour force at age of 20 in 2016
Source: OECD. Pensions at a Glance, 2017
151151
Minimum Retirement Age for Women* (2016)
*Future retirement age for women who entered the labour force at age of 20 in 2016
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017
152152
Expected Years in Retirement for Men (2016)
Expected years after labour market exit.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017
153153
Expected Years in Retirement for Women (2016)
Expected years after labour market exit.Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2017
154154154
LABOR MARKET
155155155
Labor Market Reform Increasing Flexibility of Labor Market
Allowing for temporary employment relationship via private employment offices and off-site working. Part-time workers will be eligible for retirement benefits by paying the premium due for remaining working hours as to
restore full premium payments for regular working hours. Part-time workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund as regular workers.
The linkage between social assistance and employment Cash transfers from Social Assistance and Solidarity Promotion Fund will be cut off for a year in case beneficiaries do not
accept Turkish Labor Agency’s job offers. vocational trainings or active labor force programs in a third row. Giving premium incentive to employers who employ social assistance recipients.
Active labor market programs The budget allocation for active labor market programs is 30% of previous year’s premium income of The Unemployment
Insurance Fund.
Reduction of labor cost 5 percentage points of social security premium of the employers’ share are paid by the Government as an incentive. Employers are allowed to benefit from the above mentioned incentive concomitantly with other premium incentives. Employers’ share of social security premium for newly employed young and female workers is paid by Unemployment
Insurance Fund provided both employers and employees meet defined conditions. The coverage of short-term working allowance is extended to sectoral and regional crises together with general economic
crises. Daily short-term working allowance that was 40% of daily average gross income is increased to 60%. Obligation to employ ex-convicts is abolished. Sports facility. kindergarden. health and security unit’s requirements under the Labor Law are eased. Employers’ share of social security premium for disabled workers is paid by the Government. 666 TL of monthly social security premiums are paid by the UIF for additional employment.
156156156*Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child.Source: OECD Taxing Wages, 2017
Tax Wedge on Employment (2016)
38.136
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Be
lgium
Germany
Hun
gary
France
Italy
Austria
Finland
Czechia
Sweden
Slovenia
Portugal
Slovak Rep.
Greece
Spain
Estonia
Luxembo
urg
Turkey
Netherla
nds
Denmark
Norway
OECD ‐ Average
Poland
İcelan
d
Japan
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Korea
Israel
Switzerland
Mexico
New
Zealand
Chile
157157157(*) Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child (Share of total cost).
Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2017
Tax Wedge Distribution (2016)
Social Security Contributions (% of GDP)
158* Data of Turkey is updated for new method of GDP calculation Source: OECD Statistics Database, 2016
159
Number of Active Insured (Million)
*As of July
Source: Social Security Institutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin July 2018
160
Social Security Coverage (Million) (Employees and Dependents)*
* Excluding citizens registered under the General Health Insurance** As of JulySource: Social Security Institutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin July 2018
Labor Indicators by Regions (2016)
Source: TURKSTAT, 2017
Van
161
Regions Population 15 years and over Labour force Employed Unemployed
Labour force participation rate
(%)
Unemployment rate(%)
Employment rate(%)
Not in labour force
Turkey 58 720 30 535 27 205 3 330 52.0 10.9 46.3 28 185TR10 (İstanbul) 11 416 6 427 5 558 869 56.3 13.5 48.7 4 988TR21 (Tekirdağ. Edirne. Kırklareli) 1 320 764 707 58 57.9 7.5 53.5 556TR22 (Balıkesir. Çanakkale) 1 340 651 607 44 48.6 6.7 45.3 689TR31 (İzmir) 3 288 1 821 1 566 254 55.4 14.0 47.6 1 468TR32 (Aydın. Denizli. Muğla) 2 266 1 221 1 139 82 53.9 6.7 50.3 1 045TR33 (Manisa. Afyon. Kütahya. Uşak) 2.352 1 231 1 171 60 52.3 4.8 49.8 1 121TR41 (Bursa. Eskişehir. Bilecik) 3 033 1 520 1 380 139 50.1 9.2 45.5 1 513TR42 (Kocaeli. Sakarya. Düzce. Bolu. Yalova) 2 722 1 459 1 303 156 53.6 10.7 47.9 1 263
TR51 (Ankara) 4 045 2 153 1 908 244 53.2 11.4 47.2 1 892TR52 (Konya. Karaman) 1 691 845 793 52 50.0 6.1 46.9 845TR61 (Antalya. Isparta. Burdur) 2 254 1 277 1 130 146 56.6 11.5 50.1 978TR62 (Adana. Mersin) 2 917 1 459 1 308 151 50.0 10.4 44.8 1 458TR63 (Hatay. Kahramanmaraş. Osmaniye) 2 193 1 009 863 146 46.0 14.4 39.4 1 184TR71 (Kırıkkale. Aksaray. Niğde. Nevşehir. Kırşehir ) 1 110 584 506 78 52.6 13.4 45.6 526
TR72 (Kayseri. Sivas. Yozgat) 1 753 869 795 73 49.6 8.4 45.4 884TR81 (Zonguldak. Karabük. Bartın) 780 401 367 35 51.4 8.6 47.0 379TR82 (Kastamonu. Çankırı. Sinop) 590 338 318 20 57.3 5.8 54.0 252TR83 (Samsun. Tokat. Çorum. Amasya) 2 044 1 067 983 84 52.2 7.9 48.1 977TR90 (Trabzon. Ordu. Giresun. Rize. Artvin. Gümüşhane) 2 001 1 089 1 040 49 54.4 4.5 52.0 911
TRA1 (Erzurum. Erzincan. Bayburt) 759 376 357 19 49.5 5.0 47.0 383TRA2 (Ağrı. Kars. Iğdır. Ardahan) 775 397 377 19 51.2 4.9 48.7 378TRB1 (Malatya. Elazığ. Bingöl. Tunceli) 1 265 621 565 55 49.1 8.9 44.7 644TRB2 (Van. Muş. Bitlis. Hakkari) 1 358 576 523 53 42.4 9.2 38.5 782TRC1 (Gaziantep. Adıyaman. Kilis) 1 831 828 710 118 45.2 14.3 38.7 1 003TRC2 (Şanlıurfa. Diyarbakır) 2 260 1 021 846 175 45.2 17.2 37.4 1 238TRC3 (Mardin. Batman. Şırnak. Siirt) 1 359 532 381 151 39.1 28.3 28.0 827
162162162Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database, 2016
Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (2015)
Countries Agriculture Industry Services
Turkey 23.6 23.6 52.8
Mexico 13.4 23.9 62.7
Poland 11.7 30.4 57.9
Korea 6.1 24.4 69.5
Brasil 15.1 24.2 60.7
Spain 4.3 19.9 75.8
Italy 3.6 27.3 69.1
Japan 3.7 25.8 70.5
Czech Rep 3 37.6 59.4
Canada 2.2 19.9 77.9
United Kingdom 1 18.7 80.3
Germany 1.4 28 70.6
163163163
Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive)
4.875
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Can
ada
USA U
K
Irela
nd
Swed
en
Aus
tral
ia
Japa
n
Net
herla
nds
New
Zea
land
Ger
man
y
Switz
erla
nd
Hun
gary
Aus
tria
Den
mar
k
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Finl
and
Pola
nd
Slov
ak R
epub
lic
Port
ugal
Italy
Mex
ico
Kor
ea
Gre
ece
Bel
gium
Spai
n
Nor
way
Fran
ce
Luxe
mbo
urg
Turk
ey
1998 2013
OECD Avg. 1.72
Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics Database, 2018
164164164
Part-time Employment (%, 2017)
0102030405060708090
Rus
sia
Hun
gary
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Slov
ak R
epub
lic
Pola
nd
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Esto
nia
Port
ugal
Slov
enia
Sout
h A
fric
a
Turk
ey
Gre
ece
Kor
ea
Spai
n
Swed
en
Finl
and
Luxe
mbo
urg
Fran
ce
Isra
el
Bel
gium
OEC
D c
ount
ries
Icel
and
Mex
ico
Chi
le
Italy
Nor
way
Can
ada
Den
mar
k
Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment Women's Share in Part-time Employment
Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics Database, 2018
165165165
Severance Payments Burden (2017) (As weeks of Payment for 10 Years Work)
Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2018
166166166
R&D
167167167
Turkey: R&D Expenditures’ Share in GDP (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
0.530.51
0.470.50
0.57 0.56
0.69 0.69
0.81 0.80 0.800.83
0.82
0.860.88
0.94
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
168168168
1.3 1.8 2.22.9
3.84.4
6.16.9
8.19.3
11.2
13.114.8
17.6
20.6
24.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: TURKSTAT
R&D Expenditure* (Billion TL)
169169169
R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD)
75
102110
124137
154169
181197
211
230
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: TUBITAK
170170170
In 2002, 28,964 people.
In 2016, 136,953 people.
Number of R&D personnel increased by 394 % between 2002-2016
Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel
(*) Full Time Equivalent
Source: TURKSTAT
171171171
Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel
Source: TURKSTAT
27,003
27,698
28,96438,308
39,96049,252
54,44463,377
67,24473,521
81,792
92,801
105,122112,969
115,444
122,288
136,953
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
172172172
In 2002, 23,995 people.
In 2016, 100,158 people.
Number of researchers increased by 317 % between 2002-2016
Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers
(*) Full Time Equivalent
Source: TURKSTAT
173173173
R&D Human Resources (1000 People)
Source: TURKSTAT
23 2427 28 29
38 4049
54
6367
7482
93
105113 115
122
137
19 20 23 23 2433 34
3943
50 5358
6472
8289 90
95
100
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher
174174174
In 2002, 9,005 publications. In 2016, 31,555 publications. Number of scientific publications increased by 250 %
between 2002 and 2016.
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications
Source: TUBİTAK
175175175
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication
9,005
10,704
13,354
14,36515,344
18,283
19,794
22,31823,624
24,488
26,03127,157
27,888
29,439
31,555
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: TUBİTAK
176176176
Number of Scientific Publications per Million People
Source: TUBITAK
136
160
197209
221
259277
308320 328
344 354 359 374395
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
177177177
In 2002, 85 international patent applications.
In 2016, 1068 international patent applications.
Number of international patent applications increased by 1156 % between 2002-2016.
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
178178178
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
85 113 116174
269
359 392 388479
539 536
805853
10101068
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
179179179
Patent Applications and Registries
Source: TPI
73 93 68 95 122 318 338 456 642 847 1025 1244 12511730 1794 1964
414 490 685 935 1,090
1,8382,268
2,5883,250
4,0874,543 4,528
4,8615,512
6,445
8,625
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(Num
ber o
f pat
ents
)
Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations
180180180
Model Applications and Registries
376
704 678
964
1,665
2,148
1,833
2,1512,022
1,948
2,245
1,997
2,4742,681
2,347
2,014
914
1,206
1,479
1,896
2,424
2,972 2,9492,842
2,9943,175
3,726
3,468 3,477 3,451 3,4573,256
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(Num
ber
of M
odel
s)
Model Registrations Model Applications
Source: TPI
181181181
ENERGY SECTOR
182182182
Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh)
Source: TEİAŞ* Temporary data
273.5267.6
183Source: Eurostat
0,0000
5,0000
10,0000
15,0000
20,0000
25,0000S
wed
en
Den
mar
k
Liec
hten
stei
n
Finl
and
Bos
nia
and
Her
zego
vina
Fran
ce
Aus
tria
Slo
veni
a
Ger
man
y
Slo
vaki
a
Irel
and
Eur
o A
rea
EU
28
EU
27
Luxe
mbo
urg
Hun
gary
Net
herla
nds
Cro
atia
Por
tuga
l
Ser
bia
Rom
ania
Pol
and
Gre
ece
Spa
in
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Bel
gium Ita
ly
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Est
onia
Mol
dova
Ukr
aine
Turk
ey
Mac
edon
ia
Bul
garia
Without Tax Other Taxes VAT
Industrial Natural Gas Prices(Euro / GigaJoule, For Consumers With 10,000 GJ – 100,000 GJ Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)
184184184
Source: Eurostat
05
101520253035
Swed
enSp
ain
Italy
Portu
gal
Liec
hten
stei
nN
ethe
rland
sD
enm
ark
Euro
Are
aIre
land
Fran
ceA
ustri
aG
reec
eG
erm
any
EU 2
7EU
28
Cze
ch R
epub
licSl
oven
iaB
elgi
umU
nite
d K
ingd
omSl
ovak
iaPo
land
Luxe
mbo
urg
Latv
iaLi
thua
nia
Cro
atia
Hun
gary
Bos
nia
and…
Esto
nia
Serb
iaR
oman
iaB
ulga
riaTu
rkey
Mol
dova
Ukr
aine
Without Tax Other Taxes VAT
Household Natural Gas Prices(Euro / GigaJoule, For Consumers With 20 GJ - 200 GJ Annual Consumption,2016 2nd Half)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Den
mar
kG
erm
any
Italy
Cyp
rus
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Euro
Are
aLa
tvia
Mal
taPo
rtug
alEU
27
EU 2
8Sl
ovak
iaB
elgi
umIre
land
Spai
nA
ustr
iaG
reec
eEs
toni
aLi
thua
nia
Cro
atia
Hun
gary
Net
herla
nds
Fran
ceSl
oven
iaPo
land
Rom
ania
Nor
way
Mol
dova
Bul
garia
Finl
and
Turk
eyM
onte
negr
oC
zech
Rep
ublic
Kos
ovo
Bos
nia
and…
Mac
edon
iaU
krai
neSw
eden
Luxe
mbo
urg
Serb
ia
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
185185185Source: Eurostat
Industrial Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey(Eurocent / kWh, For Consumers With 2.000 MWh – 20.000 Mwh Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)
186186
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Den
mar
k
Ger
man
y
Bel
gium
Portu
gal
Italy
Irela
nd
Spai
n
Euro
Are
a
EU 2
7
Eu 2
8
Aus
tria
Swed
en
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Gre
ece
Fran
ce
Luxe
mbo
urg
Liec
hten
stei
n
Nor
way
Slov
enia
Latv
ia
Cyp
rus
Net
herla
nds
Finl
and
Slov
akia
Icel
and
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Pola
nd
Cro
atia
Mal
ta
Esto
nia
Rom
ania
Turk
ey
Lith
uani
a
Hun
gary
Mon
tene
gro
Bul
garia
Mol
dova
Bos
nia
and
Her
zego
vina
Alb
ania
Mac
edon
ia
Serb
ia
Kos
ovo
Ukr
aine
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
Household Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey(Eurocent / kWh, For Consumers With 2.500 kWh - 5.000 kWh Annual Consumption, 2016 2nd Half)
Source: Eurostat
January 2019
TURKISH ECONOMY
Republic of TurkeyMinistry of Treasury and Finance