third meeting of experts for action 18 of the rtap meeting of experts for action 18 of the rtap 29th...

Third meeting of experts for Action 18 of the RTAP

29th November 2010

Agenda

9:30 ‐ 9:40 Welcome and presentation of the objectives of the meeting. CETMO 9:40 – 9:50 Presentation of the progress in the development of Action 18. CETMO 9:50 – 10:30 Review of the progress of each chapter of the Action 18 Data Base and of the GIS. CETMO and experts comments 10:30 – 10:50 General principles and existing methodologies approaches for modelling transport CETMO 10:50 – 11:15 Coffee ‐ break 11:15 – 12:15 Modelling examples. The European model Transtools and the experience of the TRACECA group. Angelo Martino. TRACECA IDEA project coordinator The development of DESTIN PROJECT using BRIDGES software Andreu Esquius. MCRIT 12:15 – 13:30 Exchange of ideas between the Action 18 experts in relation to a proposal of a methodology for a

freight fluxes model to be submitted to the WG Infra. CETMO and experts comments 13:30 – 15:00 Lunch 15:00 – 16:30 Exchange of ideas between the Action 18 experts in relation to a proposal of a methodology for a

passenger fluxes model to be submitted to the WG Infra. CETMO and experts comments 16:30 – 17:00 Coffee ‐ break 17:00 – 17:30 Synthesis of the ideas of the experts group in relation to the modelling methodology proposal to

be submitted to the WG Infra. CETMO and experts comments 17:30 Conclusions and closing of the meeting CETMO

Place of the meeting Hotel AC Sants Barcelona

Centre d’étude de transports pour la Méditerranée Occidentale +34 93 430 52 35 [email protected] ■ www.cetmo.org

Type of expert Name Country ‐ Organisation

National Khalid Cherkaoui Maroc

National Wissen Gaida Tunisie

National Vladimir Simon Israel

National Ali Shaath Palestine

National Maha K. Al‐Omari Jordan

National Khaldoun Karraz Syria

National Hasan T. Özkorkmaz Turkey

Thematic Mete Orer TINA‐Turkey

Thematic Andrei Sorin DGTREN

Thematic Angelo Martino TRACECA

Thematic Andreu Esquius MCRIT

Thematic Efrain Larrea MCRIT

Thematic Albert Bergonzo SAFEMED

Thematic Dalila Achour MC II

Thematic Inés Ferguson MC II

Thematic Saki Aciman CETMO

Organizer Alberto Palacios CETMO

Organizer Jordi Selfa CETMO

Organizer Marc Pérez CETMO

Organizer Nuria Blanco CETMO

Organizer Laia Mercadé CETMO

Organizer Isabel López CETMO

Expert Group of the RTAP Action 18List of participants in the third meeting of experts

Barcelona, 29 november 2009

Progress in the development of Action 18 database, methodologies and tools

Third meeting of the Action 18 Expert Group

Barcelona, 29 November 2010

Action 18 Expert Group is funded by the European Union through EuropeAid Co-operation Office

Centre for Transportation Studies for the Western Mediterranean

CETMO

2

Progress in the development of Action 18 database, methodologiesand tools

Third meeting of the Action 18 Expert GroupBarcelona, 29 November 2010

I – Action 18 of the RTAP

II – Previous meetings of the group of experts for Action18

III – Progress in the development of the A18 Database

IV – Progress in the development of the Methodologies

Contents

3



I – Action 18 of the RTAP

The results expected are:

- A database that describes the socioeconomic situation, the existing and planned infrastructures and the transport flows in the Mediterranean

- Methodologies and computer tools in order to analyse the infrastructure networks and the implementation of forecast on the transport system in the Mediterranean

- An expert group able to provide knowledge and expertise about the performance of the transport system in the Mediterranean countries

In the frame of Euromed forum, Euro-Mediterranean countries will set up a network of

transport experts to collaborate on regularly assembling and analyzing transport data,

maintaining a common database of demand, GIS network data and common forecasting

scenarios for the Mediterranean

4



II – Previous meetings of the Action 18 Experts Group

The first meeting of Action 18 was held in Barcelona last 23rd November 2009.

Main issues presented were:

- Set up of the A18-EG

- Presentation of the database structure

- Available sources of information

- Examining existing methodologies and tools of treatment and analysis of information

The main conclusions derived from the first meeting were:

The definition of the proposed database and methodologies were judged too ambitious due to short time frames and technical limitation of countries

Therefore, the development of a common minimum (short term) database as proposed

5



The second Action 18 meeting was held in Barcelona last 21 June.

This second meeting has been dedicated to show the progress on the database implementation and also but less in-depth on the methodologies and tools definition (the geographical information system –GIS- and the transport flows forecast model).

Among the main conclusions of the meeting:

- The importance of Action 18 for the infrastructure planning exercise in the framework of the Euromed cooperation. This action should give us a common and complete view of the international flows of goods and passengers for the whole Mediterranean area.

- The need to define an updating system for the database.

- The need of the experts implication for the chapters of “Demand use of infrastructure” and “Transport cost”, considering the availability of these data, the lack of homogeneity and interpretation.

- The importance of taking into consideration in an adequate way the multimodal and transit flows, mainly in the forecast model.

II – Previous meetings of the Action 18 Experts Group

6




The first step in the development of the data base and the methodologies is a precise structure of data base that allows the implementation of a GIS and a forecast model.

The issues agreed are:

- The chapters contained the data base- Ch1 - Administrative units- Ch2 - Socioeconomic data- Ch3 - Foreign trade- Ch4 - Movement of persons- Ch5 - Infrastructure networks. Characteristics- Ch6 - Infrastructure network. Demand- Ch7 - Infrastructure network. Projects- Ch8 - Regular transport services.- Ch9 - Cost of transport (internal)

- The type of data format to be included in the data base (Tabular data, Cartographic bases and Metadata) and the relationship between its.

Metadata for CB

Cartographic base

Tabular data

Entities GIS

Metadata for TD

7




Still some tasks to be developed in order to finish the database

Third meeting. Nov 2010Main tasks finished

Requeriment of information to complete short and mid term database

Second meeting. Juin 2010

Treatment and introduction of data of the mid term database

Presentation of progress of the database.

Integration of data the short term database

Kick-off meeting. Nov 2009

Recopilation, treatment and introduction of chapters of short term database

Recopilation of chapters of the mid term database

Presentation of progress in the development of database

Presentation of database structureChapters and variables

Priorisation of database implementation Short term databseMid term databse

8



IV – Development and creation of the databaseCompilation

Source research

Treatment

Analysis andhandling of data

Integration and outputs

Construction of data base:

TablesMaps Metadata

Chapter 8

Chapter 7

Chapter 6

Chapter 5

Chapter 4

Chapter 3

Chapter 2

Chapter 1

Infrastructure networks. Characteristics

Infrastructure network. Demand

Infrastructure network. Projects

Transport services

Foreign trade

Movements of persons

Socioeconomic issues

Administrative units

Chapter 8

Chapter 7

Chapter 6

Chapter 5

Chapter 4

Chapter 3

Chapter 2

Chapter 1




Transport services

Foreign trade




9



• A18 should lead to the implementation of methodologies (model) and tools (GIS) which will allow regular analysis of the transport system in the Mediterranean area.

• GIS is an essential tool for treatment, mapping and analysis of the information existing in the database of the transport system. GIS entities result from the A18 DB structure, and are completely integrated into. GIS work implementation is done in parallel to DB work progress.

• Present meeting of the Experts Group is being mainly dedicated to methodological aspects, specially to the definition of the flows forecast model (goods and passengers).

• During this meeting, CETMO will present the state of the art of modelling goods and passengers tools and the first draft of a proposed modelling methodology. Experts participation will be essential in order to agree the best methodology to be used in the modelling exercise.

• After this meeting, discussions and hypothetical conclusions on the methodologies resulting will be presented to the Infrastructure working group meeting (16-17 December 2010).

• Comments received by national coordinators during this WGInfra meeting should represent the basis to complete development of our modelling methodology.

IV – Progress in the development of the Methodologies

10



Thank you for your attention

CETMO www.cetmo.org

[email protected]

Review of the progress of each chapter of Action 18 database and GIS




CETMO


2

Progress in the development of Action 18 database


I – INTRODUCTION

II – PHASES IN THE DEFINITION OF ACTION 18 DATABASE

III – STATE OF PROGRESS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACTION 18 DATABASE

IV – STATE OF PROGRESS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACTION 18 DATABASE BY CHAPTERS

V – CONCLUSION

Contents

3



Remembering Action 18 proposal:

“set up a network of transport experts to collaborate on regularly assembling and analyzing transport data, maintaining a common database of demand, GIS network data and common forecasting scenarios for the Mediterranean”.

Whose expecting results are:

Database that describes the socioeconomic situation, the existing and planned infrastructures and the transport flows for the Mediterranean countries.

I - INTRODUCTION

4



II – PHASES IN THE DEFINITION OF ACTION 18 DB

Still some tasks to be developed in order to finish the database

Third meeting. Nov 2010Main tasks finished

Requeriment of information to complete short and mid term database

Second meeting. Juin 2010

Treatment and introduction of data of the mid term database

Presentation of progress of the database

Integration of data the short term database

Kick-off meeting. Nov 2009

Recopilation, treatment and introduction of chapters of short term database

Recopilation of chapters of the mid term database

Presentation of progress in the development of database

Presentation of database structureChapters and variables

Priorisation of database implementation Short term databaseMid term database

5



III – STATE OF PROGRESS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (1/2)Compilation

Source research

Treatment

Analysis andhandling of data


Construction of data base:

TablesMaps Metadata

Chapter 8

Chapter 7

Chapter 6

Chapter 5

Chapter 4

Chapter 3

Chapter 2

Chapter 1




Transport services

Foreign trade




Chapter 8

Chapter 7

Chapter 6

Chapter 5

Chapter 4

Chapter 3

Chapter 2

Chapter 1




Transport services

Foreign trade




6



III – STATE OF PROGRESS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (2/2)

Tasks to be developed

Compilation

Treatment


Integration of especific variablesMovement of persons matrixTransport services -Geographic representatationProjects data and geographic representation

Other

New data requeriments coming from model especifications

Tasks to be developed to complete Action 18 Database

Data compilation for especific variables

Movement of persons - Creation of matrices and air passengers data

Future discussion on the dissemination of the database, ownership and updates process, related to WG Infra

7



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (1/25)Administrative divisions and nodes

Completed

See working document on Database - 18 November 2010

8



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (2/25)Administrative divisions and nodes: results

2010

9



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (3/25)Administrative divisions and nodes: results

2010

10



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (4/25)Socioeconomic issues

- There is still some general data not disposable for Mauritania and Algeria

- There are some specific variables not found in National Statistical Sources

- Nearly of variables are completed and integrated


11



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (5/25)Socioeconomic issues: results

2008

12




2008

13




2008

14



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (8/25)Movement of persons

Data provided by National Statistical offices and international organisations on movement of persons are not exhaustive and highly heterogeneous.

Differences found in:- Definition of travellers- Classification of origin and destination countries- Quantification of Nationals Living Abroad movements- Point of entrance and transport mode registration

Current data available do not permit the construction of a OD matrix with unified and comparable statistical data.

It is propose to develop a further treatment of data in order to estimate values of fluxes. This treatment related to the passenger fluxes modelling. Matrix obtained will not have statistical consistency

Therefore, current available data is presented in form of file

See meeting documentation: Document on progress of database

15



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (9/25)

TUNISIE - MOUVEMENT DES VOYAGEURS

Arrivées enregistrées

National Provenance OMT * Source ** Notes

L’Autriche 72 866 72 800 Belgique 169 061 169 000 Bulgarie 6 965 6 900 Chypre - -

République Tchèque 125 573 125 500 Allemagne 521 513 521 500 Danemark 26 543 -

Algérie 968 499 968 500 L’Estonie - - Egypte 10 240 -

Espagne 104 782 104 700 Finlande 21 691 - France 1 395 255 1 395 200 Grèce 12 085 12 000

Hongrie 54 734 54 700 L’Irlande 17 564 -

Israël - - Italie 444 541 444 500

Jordan 2 765 - Liban 1 859 -

Lituanie - - Luxembourg 6 823 6 800 La Lettonie - -

Maroc 32 430 32 400 Mauritanie 12 049 12 000

Malte 5 127 5 100 Pays-Bas 95 307 95 300

La Pologne 207 531 207 500 Palestine 1 922 - Portugal 41 697 -

La Roumanie 31 490 31 400 La Suède 48 689 -

La Slovénie - - La Slovaquie 43 333 43 200

La Syrie 3 960 - Tunisie - 3 042 600 (1) Turquie 13 874 13 900

Royaume-Uni 254 922 254 900 (1) Sorties des Résidents Nationaux a l’étranger: 844 700. * Organisation Mondiale du Tourisme. Touristes non-résidents, par nacionalité. ** Annuaire statistique de la Tunisie 2008. Entrées des voyageurs non résidents par nationalité et par mois.

Flux de passagers aux frontières terrestres

Éntrées Sorties Nom de la frontière Étrangers Citizens Étrangers Citizens

Notes

Ras Ajdir 1 651 100 1 570 300 1 523 700 - Dehiba - 165 700 - - Hazoua 100 800 21 600 93 800 -

Bouchebka 161 000 30 900 145 400 - Sakiet Sidi Youssef 64 600 8 400 62 500 -

Ghardimaou 1 600 1 300 2 400 - Babouche 97 300 - 793 00 -

Tabarka (Maloula) 250 900 38 100 260 600 - Total 2 327 300 1 836 300 2 167 700

Source: Annuaire statistique de la Tunisie 2008.

Flux maritime de passagers

UE/MEDA Port Port Pays Tunisien Entrées Sorties Font * Notes

Marseille France La Goulette 132 372 123 608 OMMP Toulon France La Goulette 7 379 6 358 OMMP

Palermo Italie La Goulette 53 733 51 561 OMMP (1) Trapani Italie La Goulette 632 1 902 OMMP Genova Italie La Goulette 149 091 138 428 OMMP (2) Salerno Italie La Goulette 395 - OMMP

Chivitavecchia Italie La Goulette 11 106 10 582 OMMP La valette Malte La Goulette 8 30 OMMP

Total 354 716 332 469 (1) Selon font Eurostat (Estatistical Office of European Comunities): 21000 entrées et 23000 sorties des passagers. (2) Selon font Eurostat (Estatistical Office of European Comunities): 118000 entrées et 114000 sorities des passagers. * Source: OMMP: Office de la Marine Marchande et des Ports. Rapport annuel 2008.

Flux aérien de passagers

Éntrées Sorties Aéroport Étrangers Citizens Étrangers Citizens

Notes

Tunis Carthage 1 182 800 663 300 1 166 500 - Jerba-Zarzis 1 123 200 86 400 1 135 600 -

Monastir 1 998 000 129 100 2 004 200 - Sfax 5 200 11 300 4 700 -

Tozeur 25 300 4 800 24 300 - Tabarka 36 600 700 35 300 - Gafsa - 100 - - Total 4 371 100 895 700 4 370 600 933 200

Font:: Annuaire statistique de la Tunisie 2008.

2008

16



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (10/25)

SYRIA - MOVEMENT OF TRAVELERS

Registered arrivals

National Provenance WTO * Source ** Notes

Austria 6,494 6,494 Belgium 6,818 6,818 Bulgaria 4,919 4,919 Cyprus 8,658 8,658

Czech Republic 4,348 4,348 Germany 53,301 53,301 Denmark 12,289 12,289 Algeria 35,231 35,231 Estonia - - Egypt 45,060 45,060 Spain 18,625 18,625

Finland - - France 40,487 40,487 Greece 7,195 7,195 Hungary 4,800 4,800 Ireland - - Israel - - Italy 24,871 24,871

Jordan 1,044,564 1,044,564 Lebanon 1,587,115 1,587,115 Lithuania - -

Luxembourg - - Latvia - -

Morocco 9,257 9,257 Mauritania - -

Malta - - Netherlands 12,627 12,627

Poland 3,540 3,540 Palestine 92,751 92,751 Portugal - - Romania 5,328 5,328 Sweden 21,807 21,807 Slovenia - - Slovakia - -

Syria - - Tunisia 18,765 18,765 Turkey 562,832 562,832

United Kingdom 31,630 31,630 * World Tourism Organization. Non resident visitors, by nacionality. ** CBSSYR: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria. Foreing arrivals, by nationality

Flux of passengers at land borders

Border name Inwards * Outwards ** Notes Dara 311,530 151,452 Nasib 1,385,340 1,360,894

Dabbusiyah 270,380 766,917 Aarida 206,252 478,633 Jusiyah 125,890 193,212

Al Jdeideh 1,231,849 932,226 Tel Abvad 42,171 16,035 Jrabulus 8,736 55,607

Bab al Hawa 320,275 141,925 Kasab 57,077 48,833

Al Salameh 348,354 75,693 Al Qamishli 160,642 33,239 Midan Ekbis 5,744 1,485

Total 4,474,240 4,256,151 * Entries of foreigners ** Departures of citiziens Source: CBSSYR: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria

Maritime flux of passengers

UE/MEDA Syrian Port Country Port Inwards Outwards Source * Notes

Lemesos Cyprus Latakia 3,717 3,753 Cystat * Source: Cystat: Statistical Service of Cyprus.

Air flux of passengers

Arrivals / Departures by air Inwards * Outwards ** Notes 939,804 880,332

* Arab and foreing people ** Syrians Source: CBSSYR: Central Bureau of Statistics of Syria.

2008

17



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (11/25)Foreign trade

Integrated in the DB an OD matrix by products classified by NSTR (3 digits). - Data from UNcomtrade- It describes fluxes between MEDA, European and other groups of countries.

Integrated in DB an OD matrix of maritime trade from European port to MEDA country by type of handling

- Data from Eurostat

New data are needed in order to complete a OD matrix by MEDA ports by type of handling

Disposable only partial data (totals or containers) for some countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Israel)

Only disposable complete data for Syria


18



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (12/25)Foreign trade: results

Source: UN Comtrade

kt: 1000 Tonnes; mil€: million of Euros

Main import products of Turkey

3.064

3.326

3.673

4.364

5.734

8.516

14.735

0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000

Transport equipment

Foodstuff & animal fodder

Fertilizers

Cereals

Textile clothing

Other chemical

Metal products

Petroleum products

Iron ore

Solid mineral fuels & petroleum

1000 Tonnes

38,681

22,127

15,373

Main export products of Turkey

2.352

2.460

3.482

3.860

4.778

4.849

6.774

11.014

0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000

Fruits & vegetables

Non-ferrous ore

Other chemical

Foodstuff & animal fodder

Textile clothing

Transport equipment

Petroleum products

Minerals

Building materials

Metal products

1000 Tonnes

17,470

15,518

Main origin countries of Turkey imports (excluding solid mineral fuels, petroleum & petroleum products)

1.829

1.895

1.994

2.127

2.375

2.659

3.048

4.086

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Italy

Sweden

Bulgaria

Belgium

Germany

Romania

Ukraine

Russia

1000 Tonnes

11,511

9,543

Main destination countries of Turkey exports (excluding solid mineral fuels, petroleum & petroleum products)

1.617

2.159

2.308

2.337

2.343

2.756

5.971

5.593

4.822

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Azerbaijan

United Kingdom

Romania

Germany

Syria

Spain

Iraq

Italy

Russia

United Arab Emirates

1000 Tonnes

6,247

26,470 kt; 47,317 mil€

41,724 kt; 34,136 mil€

92,551 kt; 67,008 mil€

30,945 kt; 53,500 mil€

7,129 kt; 4,916 mil€

7,911 kt; 5,525 mil€

TURKEY

TOTALValue (Million €) Weight (1000 Tonnes)

Import 125.423,43 130.624,91

Export 86.978,72 76.104,86

EU27Value (Million €) Weight (1000 Tonnes) % (Value) % (Weight)

Import 53.499,95 30.945,14 42,66 23,69

Export 47.317,10 26.469,99 54,40 34,78

MEDAValue (Million €) Weight (1000 Tonnes) % (Value) % (Weight)

Import 4.915,95 7.129,01 3,92 5,46

Export 5.525,40 7.910,82 6,35 10,39

Source: UN Comtrade

Origin Zones of Turkey imports (% of weight)

24%

34%

8%

5%2%

11%

5%

11%

European Union of 27 Countries

MEDA Countries

Other European Countries

Border Countries with EU27 &MEDAOther African Countries

Other Asian Countries

North American Countries

Oceania Countries

South American Countries

Destintion zones of Turkey exports (% of weight)

10%12%

24%

3%

9%4%

35%

2% European Union of 27 Countries

MEDA Countries

Other European Countries

Border Countries with EU27 &MEDAOther African Countries

Other Asian Countries

North American Countries

Oceania Countries

South American Countries

Import products by NSTR (% of weight)

6%5%

13%

29%17%

11%

2%

7%7%

3%

Agricultural products and live animalsFood stuffs and animal fodderSolid mineral fuelsPetroleum productsOres and metal wasteMetal productsCrude and manufactured minerals, building materialsFertilizersChemiclasMachinery, transport equipment, and manufactured and miscellaneous articles

Export products by NSTR (% of weight)

9%

4%5%

5%4%

15%

35% 23%

Agricultural products and live animalsFood stuffs and animal fodderSolid mineral fuelsPetroleum productsOres and metal wasteMetal productsCrude and manufactured minerals, building materialsFertilizersChemiclasMachinery, transport equipment, and manufactured and miscellaneous articles

2008

19



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (13/25)Foreign trade: results

2008

20



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (14/25)Infrastructure. Characteristics

Logistic platform: data not yet available

Specific data not yet obtained

Railways: data completed except data on speeds for most of countries

Roads: Data completed except data on speeds, tolls and platforms width for most of countries

Port: Data competed except for some secondary ports, and individual variables for some countries or individual ports

Airport: Data completed except for some secondary airports, and individual variables for some countries or individual airports


21



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (15/25)Infrastructure. Characteristics. Results

2008

22




2008

23




2008

24




2008

25



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (19/25)Infrastructure. Demand

- Railway: Only data from Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Israel

- Road: Only data disposable for Morocco, Mauritania and Jordan, not yet integrated in the database

- Ports: Data for all the countries but not in an homogeneous classification. Therefore not all variables can be fulfilled

- Airports: Data for all countries except some individual airport or variable

Logistic platform: data not yet available

Specific data not yet obtained, especially for roads and railway


26



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (20/25)Infrastructure. Demand. Results

2008

27



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (21/25)Infrastructure. Projects

- CETMO has gathered information the main infrastructure projects for all the countries and has remitted them to the National Experts in order to be updated / confirmed

- Information on projects is needed, meanly infrastructure technical characteristics and forecast of implementation in accordance to modelling specifications

- The infrastructure projects have to be introduced in the database in graph format in order to define future infrastructure scenarios for the forecasting model, which is highly related to the model implementation


28



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (22/25)Transport services

- The geographical representation of transport services has not been done, since this representation will be highly related to the specification of the model

- The regular maritime services database has been created by CETMO and introduced in the database

- The aerial service has been introduced in the database departing from the treatment of Airport Data Intelligence (ADI) database


29



IV – PROGRESS & RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A18 DB (23/25)Transport services: results

PORT TOTAL CONTAINER RO-RO CAR CARRIER RO-LO CARGO POLY PassengersAlger 36 21 3 3 3 1 2 4Annaba 7 4 1 2 0,3Bejaia 13 8 1 1 3 0,3Djen-Djen 3 3Ghazaouet 3 1 1 1Mostaganem 8 2 5 1Oran 23 13 2 1 3 1 1 3Skikda 11 7 2 2 0,3Tenes 1 1TOTAL 103 55 17 4 14 2 3 8

PORT TOTAL CONTAINER RO-RO CAR CARRIER RO-LO CARGO POLY PassengersAin Sukhna 1 1Dumyat 33 33El Iskandariya 51 37 3 4 5 1 1 1,0El Suweis 10 10Nuwaiba 26 26Port Said 47 47Pt Said East 21 21Sokhna Port 3 3TOTAL 191 151 3 4 5 1 1 27

30




2010

31




0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Nouadhibou Nouakchott Agadir Casablanca Fès Marrakech Tanger Alger Annaba Bejaia Constantine Hassi Messaoud Oran

Mauritanie Maroc Algérie

Fréq

uenc

e de

s vo

ls

(deu

x di

rect

ions

)

UE27MEDANationaleReste du monde

2010

32



V – CONCLUSION (1/4)

The main works of the construction of Action 18 have finished since:

- The chapters and variables are defined

- Most of variables are introduced

- Most of cartographic bases are created

- Metadata is created

But still remaining some task to be developed:

33




By national experts:

- Compilation of data for specific variables

- Confirmation of projects

34




By CETMO: In relation to data contained in the database

-Treatment of data OD matrix of movements of persons and Air passengers fluxes OD matrix of port trade (MEDA countries)

- Integration Introduction specific variablesIntroduction of data already gatheredIntroduction of data of projectsIntroduction of new cartographic databases

ProjectsServices

- Other Compilation treatment and integration of new variables

35




National Experts CETMO

Chapter 1

Chapter 2 Compilation of specific variables

Chapter 3

Chapter 4 Integration of variables Creation of an OD matrix

Treatment of data on air passenger fluxes

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Compilation, treatment and integration of new data

Model especifications

Integration of variables


Completed




Completed

Data on maritime trade

Further explanation of variables

Administrative divisions and nodes


Foreign trade

Movement of persons

Integration of cartographic data

Infrastructure. Characteristics

Infrastructure. Demand

Infrastructure. Projects

Transport services

Compilation of specific variables

Compilation of specific variables

Confirmation and definition of projects

36




CETMO www.cetmo.org

[email protected]

Progress in the development of the external trade modelling





CETMO

2

Modelling external trade


Modelling: General Principles (1/2)

Purpose

Restrictions: DATA

Description: Statistical-mathematical formulation on actual goods transfer/transport summarized as an abstract concept.

Physical description of goods flows between countries through transport networks.

Visualization of interactions/interrelations between goods transport and points of national interest: the economy, population, employment, etc.

Planning tool: to analyse, predict, simulate and quantify effects. Useful for considering possible strategies when defining action plans and programmes (in the context of transport, economics, politics, etc.).

Applicability: The areas under study must be homogeneous and the information available on these areas must be based on reliable statistics.

Implications: These restrictions curb methodological ambition. It is impossible to model (i.e. understand, predict something) without information.

3



Fields of Study: Basic Areas of Analysis Described

Socioeconomic system: international trade relations, population, GDP, industrial sectors, etc.

Transport supply: Transport-related infrastructure, services, operating improvements, existing regulations (base year).

Transport demand: requirements in terms of transport-related infrastructure, services, operating improvements, regulations, etc., as forecast for a specific year/scenario (conditions).

Model Properties

- Agreement/consistency of objectives - Realism- Simplicity - Sensitivity- Usefulness - Transport network- Validity - Economics (computational cost)

Modelling: General Principles (2/2)

4



MACROECONOMIC Models (macro)

Objective To obtain results on overall traffic evolution (tonne/tonne-kilometre)

Processing General economic indicators (e.g. evolution of costs and prices)

Interest - Identification of major trends

- Provides general perspective for infrastructure study and assessment

Current Methodological Approaches (1/3)

5



Objective

Processing

Evaluation of existing and/or planned infrastructure

Precise/fine analysis is required of goods flows, mainly in terms of two aspects:

1) Nature of goods flows: Type of products, product format, variables associated with the volume of goods flows, etc.

2) Behaviour of goods flows: How they are generated (production and consumer habits), how they are distributed in the region, the optimum/preferred mode of transport, the kind of route they follow to their destination, how the route is chosen, etc.

Interest Identification of: - Current and future infrastructure needs- Conflictive points on the network and possible resolution

PROJECT EVALUATION Models (micro)


6



Methodologies that depend on desired objectives

1) Models that include several steps (Four Steps)

2) Models with additional choices

3) Models for short-term operational decisions

Methodologies that depend on existing data

Aggregated data

Disaggregated data

PROJECT EVALUATION Models (continued)


7



The classical methodological approach distinguishes four study steps for modelling goods flows:

1) Generation/attraction of goods flows2) Distribution of flows by area3) Modal split (choice of transport mode)4) Assignment of flows to network paths (route identification)

S-DS-DS-O

1 2

3 4

S-D

S-Dtrain

searoad

Processing: Simultaneous/ Sequential

Classical Methodological Approach: Four Steps (1/5)

8



Description: Calculation of the volume of goods flows to be generated or attracted by a specific horizon year for each region considered in the area of study.

Current Methodologies

- Models based on time and trend series- Dynamic system models- Tariff-based models- Input-output models and related models (computable general equilibrium models, CGE)

Required Data

Population, GDP, economic sectors, commercial flows (import-export), land uses, industrial sectors, production by region and industrial sector, product transport tariff rates, etc.

Units: Economic

FIRS STEP: Generation/Attraction


9



Description: Determination of how the goods flows quantified in the previous step are distributed in the different parts of the area of study by a specific horizon year.


- Gravitational model- Input-output matrix

Required Data

Impedance (factor tied to general transport costs), trip probability, utility and cost functions, etc.

Units: Tonnes

• A conversion model is required that makes it possible to convert economic units (regional economic indicators) into tonnes for each kind of product. Otherwise, the data used should make it possible to convert the economic nomenclature into transport nomenclature.

SECOND STEP: Distribution of Flows by Area


10



Description: Determination of the transport mode chosen/used to transport specific goods/goods flows.


- Models based on cost elasticity- Aggregate models- Neoclassical models- Direct-demand models (econometric models)- Disaggregate models (logit formulation)- Micro-simulation- Multimodal network models

Required Data

Transport mode cost, cost elasticity, market shares associated with each mode, utility associated with each mode, level of service, reliability, tariff, route/infrastructure capacity, trip time, time spent in terminal (transfer point), cost of stay in terminal, time value, revenue/budget/investment for each transport mode, shipment size, loading vehicle availability, types of vehicles, number of trips to acquire sufficient vehicle load, etc.

THIRD STEP: Modal Split


11



Description: Each trip made by the goods from origin to destination is assigned to a specific itinerary in the infrastructure network.


- Disaggregate models (logit formulation)- Multimodal network models

Required Data

Described in previous step.

Many models DO NOT include assignment as a separate step, i.e. the third and fourth steps are modelled together.

FOURTH STEP: Assignment to the Network


12



Approach to our freight modelling (1/10)

Design guidelines

1) Preliminary Considerations

1) Definition of Objectives

2) Study area

3) Transport system functioning

4) Nature of the data

5) Definition of scenarios

2) Study of existing models in the region

3) Modelling

-Overall-Specific

-Definition of the study area-Zoning of the study area

-Infrastructure-Organization-Regulations

-Socioeconomic system-Goods flows-Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport-Indicators for calibration of results

-Policies and actions to be defined

Procedure for defining model methodology

13



Examples of modelling in the Mediterranean (1/4)

DE

STIN

Objectives Have a strategic infrastructure network. Among other things, it should allow for assessment of the projects needed to develop this network.

Study Area Mediterranean countries of the E.U. (207 zones) and the Maghreb (123 zones).

Regionalization level: NUTS2 or equivalent.

Transport system functioning

Infrastructure: 1) Modes of transport: road, rail, and sea; 2) Multimodal treatment: land(road/rail)-sea-land(road/rail) or land(road/rail)-land(rail)-land(road/rail)

Organization: Available maritime services are taken into account. For rail, not services, but implications, e.g., the cost of crossing the Pyrenees.

Regulations: Effects on transport, e.g., port entry, rest areas.

Nature of the data Socioeconomic system (by countries): population, regional GDP, GDP per capita, GVA of the agriculture and fishing industries, etc.

Goods flows: international traffic, 8 products categories (not all were modelled), 3 types of cargo (containers, RORO, general cargo).

Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport: generalized minimum cost for O-D pairs and by direction (north-south, south-north). The cost function takes into account carrier fees and the value of transit time for the importer/exporter.

Value of time by type of cargo (0,50-1€/hour)

Calibration indicators: Comparison of results and actual costs of known routes, comparison of actual and modelled % use for the three types of cargo, collation of data and results relating to port entry, etc.

Definition of scenarios 4 socioeconomic scenarios combined with different transport policies: 1) Effect of opening borders in the Maghreb, 2) Effect of giving priority to rail vs. road traffic, 3) Fixed link through the Strait of Gibraltar, 4) Territorial accessibility: development of the trans-Maghreb corridor.

Modelling Model consists of 2 phases: Joint simulation of the 1st and 2nd stages (generation and distribution) and Joint simulation of 3rd and 4th stages (modal choices and assignment)

14




TR

AC

EC

A

Objectives To model goods flows among countries in the study area

Study Area The E.U., neighbouring countries and countries of Central Asia (TRACECA countries)

Regionalization level: NUTS2 equivalent. Includes 172 traffic zones.


Infrastructure: 1) Modes of transport: road, rail, sea, pipeline

2) Multimodal treatment

Nature of the data Socioeconomic system: variables in the TRACECA database

Goods flows: international traffic, 50 products grouped into 9 main categories, 5 types of cargo (fluid, bulk, container, special truck, fresh food). Demand pattern differentiated by type of goods.

Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport: Transport costs take into account: time cost, distance cost, transfer cost, commodity-specific loss of value.

Calibration indicators: Comparison of model results with available data (national yearbooks, UN Comtrade, COMEXT, etc.) or actual transport results (traffic count data at connecting points, borders, ports, travel time in certain corridors, goods flows between countries by type of goods).

Definition of scenarios Project under development

Modelling Model consists of 3 phases: 1) Freight generation, 2) Freight distribution and 3) Assignment including modal choice.

15




TIN

ATu

rkey

Objectives To develop a multimodal transport network within the Republic of Turkey, which includes extending E.U. TEN-T networks in Turkey.

Study Area Continents: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, Central and South America, North America, Rest of the World. Russia and Ukraine are considered part of Europe. EU countries: Italy, Spain, Germany, United KingdomKingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Greece, Sweden, Portugal.

NUTS3 / Freight flows within Turkey: Turkish administrative regions (81 provinces).


Infrastructure: 1) Modes of transport: airports, seaports, railways, roads; 2) Multimodal treatment (taking into account 1 or 2 transhipments when transporting goods from origin to destination).

Nature of the data Socioeconomic system: Data on population development, the level of different economic activities, import/export values between regions.

Goods flows: international and domestic traffic, 11 commodity groups in NSTR 1 digit (crude oil treated separately), type of cargo not taken into account.

Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport: Transport costs are based on fees associated with each mode of transport (cross-elasticities) and transport time over distances associated with each mode.

Definition of scenarios 3 infrastructure scenarios: 1) Baseline scenario: considers ongoing projects and those expected to be completed by 2020; 2) Long-term investment (LTI) scenario: includes projects that are less-developed but scheduled for completion by 2020; 3) Alternative (ALT) scenario: LTI projects, plus other hypothetical projects to solve transport problems identified by transport demand analysis.

Modelling Model consists of 2 phases: Joint simulation of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd stages (generation, distribution and modal choice) and Differential assignment.

16




Infr

aP

RO

JEC

T

Objectives Overall objective: Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area

Specific objective: Define the Mediterranean Infrastructure Network (MTIN)

Study Area MEDA countries and E.U. countries.

Regionalization level: the MEDA countries and the Mediterranean E.U. countries at first level administrative unit (grouped in some cases) or NUTS 1.


Infrastructure: 1) Modes of transport: road, sea; 2) Multimodal treatment: mainly road-sea combination because international rail freight is almost absent. Separate treatment of transhipment points (nodal elements: ports and regions)

Nature of the data Socioeconomic system: total GDP, agriculture GDP, industry GDP, services GDP, population.

Goods flows: international traffic, 12 product categories, 4 types of cargo (general cargo, solid bulk, unitized, liquid bulk).

Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport: generalized minimum cost represents travel time and cost, components: cost by distance, transhipment costs, travel times (calculated from network), border delays, port delays, etc. This cost is calculated based on mode of transport and specific handling type.

Definition of scenarios -Policies / Actions: a) Full economic integration: trade integration between MEDA partners and E.U.; b) Global economic slowdown: impact of global slowdown on the MEDA region; c) Medium economic growth: implementation of the observed trends, with some bilateral changes.

Modelling Model consists of 3 phases: Step 1 Demand model (generation and attraction), Step 2 Conversion module (distribution), Step 3 Assignment (modal choice and assignment). The 1st and 2nd phases are implemented at the country level, while the 3rd phase is implemented at the regional level.

17




1) Definition of objectives

Overall

Describe the international goods flows of the MEDA countries, with special attention to those associated with trade relations among MEDA countries and between them and the European Union.

Specific

Determine current and future goods flows for the study area.

Study the optimal routing of goods through the transport network. Identify conflictive points on the network and analyse possible paths to resolution.

Design scenarios that allow for visualization of flow exchanges under predetermined conditions.

Define a tool for assessing possible actions on the transport system.

18




2) Study area

Definition of the study area

Model application area: The area in which flow exchanges will be considered (European Union with MEDA countries and the MEDA countries among themselves).

Area of influence: Set of areas outside the model application area, which, due to their importance to global trade, are likely to be taken into account when studying goods flows (USA, Asia, etc.)

MEDA EU MEDA

MEDA

Neighbouring countries

Country groupings

19




2) Study area (continued)

Zoning of the study area

Division of the study area: Establishment of criteria to divide the study area into zones based on a series of requirements concerning geography and the availability/homogeneity of data.

Centroids: Establishment of criteria for the identification and location of centroids associated with the zones that make up the study area and the goods flow network as a whole. These criteria should address such factors as: population balance, freight consolidation centres, transhipment points, etc.

MEDA Countries NUTS 2 (A18 database regions)EU countries NUTS 2Possible direct MEDA neighbours NUTS 0Rest of countries Groupings (listed)

20




3) Functioning of the transport system

Modes of transport: Maritime, rail, road, waterways, etc. (Air transport will not be considered).Treatment: Unimodal or Multimodal (logistics chain approach).Nodes: Identification and location of transhipment points in the infrastructure network.

a) Infrastructure

Operational considerations: Terms of service associated with each mode of transport (service frequencies, minimum shipment volume, etc.)Implications for the modelling process: Effects on the transport chain due to organizational issues will result in their being modelled as costs, whether in terms of money or time, e.g., uncoordinated loading and unloading, waiting times, etc.Relations between agents: The perspective from which modelling should be approached and, therefore, whose interests should be catered to, e.g. administration, operators, etc.

b) Organization

21




3) Functioning of the transport system (cont.)

Implications for the modelling process: Effects on the transport chain due to regulatory issues will result in their being modelled as costs, whether in terms of money or time, e.g., customs processing, border crossing, carrier rest time, etc.

c) Regulations

The functioning of the transport system may vary over time and should be considered for different time horizons and scenarios.

22




4) Nature of the data

Data required: Total population, population by age group, rate of population growth, urbanization rate, active population, unemployment rate, GDP by region*, GDP per capita*, economic sectors, GDP by economic sector*, value added by economic sector, etc.Availability: aggregated or disaggregated, possibility of disaggregation.

Types of products to be considered: CN, HS, NST, products that follow a certain pattern (petroleum) or behave heterogeneously (general goods)Types of cargo: general cargo, solid bulk, liquid bulk, container, RORO, etc.Treatment: Study of the pattern of behaviour in terms of transport demand, associated with a type of good or product, or with a type of cargo.

b) Goods flows

a) Socioeconomic system

*Considerably difficult to obtain

23




4) Nature of data (cont.)

c) Quantitative and qualitative parameters related to transport

Definition of the generalized costs associated with each mode of transport (by product/type of cargo): cost/km, cost/t, carrier fees, operating costs, etc.Definition of transport time: distance covered at average speed, stay in terminals, loading and unloading operations, intermodal operations, carrier rest time, etc.Infrastructure capacity: network congestion, effect on the rest of the network segments, etc.Time value (cost/t-h or cost/km-h): Perception of the cost of a delay in the transport chain associated with, for example, a variation of the initial route, crossing through transhipment points or terminals, or regulatory processing, etc.Level of service: Reliability of transport, timeliness of service, ability to provide value-added services, etc.

24




4) Nature of data (cont.)

Comparison of the cost of itineraries of known logistics chains with the results estimated by the model.

Comparison of the percentages of actual and modelled use for each type of cargo in maritime services.

Comparison of data and results relating to port passage.

Comparison of results and available information (traffic counts) on land routes (road and rail).

Borders: Volumes of goods recorded by customs agencies.

Forecasts by international organizations. Comparison of results from different sources.

e) Indicators for the calibration of results obtained using the model

25




5) Definition of scenarios

Policies and actions to define for configuring the network for future years:

Socioeconomic: investment, tariffs, GDP growth, population.

Infrastructure: new infrastructure, improvements or upgrades, maintenance.

Operational: Establishment of new services, aid to the sector, promotion of intersectoral relations, regulations, agreements, etc.

Baseline year and future years

26



Freight model design (1/4)

Preliminary considerations (remember)

1) Aims: Characterization of the current and future global sourcing in the Mediterranean region. Design an assessment tool to evaluate the possible actions on the transport system.

2) Study area and Zoning: The study area includes MEDA countries, the EU, neighbouring countries and the other countries of the world. Its zoning: MEDA and EU are defined in NUTS 2, neighbouring countries are defined in NUTS 0, and the other countries are defined on listed groups.

3) Transport System: Multimodal treatment of the different modes (maritime, rail, road). Current and future transport system organization and regulation will be mainly modeled by transport costs associated with the multimodal chain.

4) Socioeconomic Data: Representative socioeconomic data are used to describe the study area i.e.: population, GDP.

5) Freight Data: Goods flow behaviour and handling are represented by a broad goods classification.

6) Qualitative and Quantitative Transport Parameters: The model is designed in order to always choose the low cost parameter as principal during the flow assignation in a multimodal chain system.

7) Scenarios: Different scenarios will be designed to consider the future transport system performance (network and transport policies) and the possible socioeconomic variations of the region.

27




Classic modelling based on a four steps system

1st Step: Generation / attraction

Generation

Attraction byyyD

axxxOlj

li

++++=

++++=

...

...

332211

332211

βββ

αααType of goodSocioeconomic variablesCalibration Constants ",,,"

","""

bayx

l

kt

sr

βα

Known O-D Matrix country-county depending on type of good

....

...

=

=lj

li

D

OEstimate O-D matrix region-region depending on type of good

I) BEHAVIOR’S PATTERNMathematical expression established to estimate the generation and/or the attraction of goods’ flow in every study area for every type of product, depending on the socioeconomic parameters which describe the study area.

II) PROCESSING

l-goods

i-zone

Potential Attraction

Potential Generation

Application of I formulation and calibration constants estimation through statistics data at state level

lj

li DO ,

Application of I formulation with calibration parameters already estimated and determination if the

values at regional levellj

li DO ,

1 2

Calibration indicators:-Existing O-D flow matrix (country-country)-Temporal interchange evolution country-country -Imports/exports balance-Double constrained ∑ ∑

= =

=n

l

n

lji DO

1 1

28




2nd Step: Distribution of Flows by Area

Classic Gravity Model

Methodology: 1st STEP & 2nd STEP

=

=

=

=−

l

bij

lij

G

C

T

γ⎟⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜⎜

⎝

⎛= l

ij

lj

lil

ij C

DOkT

γ

l-good flow between i,j regions

Impedance or distance factor (cost)

Gravity constant

Friction factor associated with the I-good trade (special treatments between zones: trade agreements, common languages, etc)

Determination of O-D matrix in all the study zones depending on the type of good considered.

Simulation of 1st step and 2nd step together is set out (only one mathematical expression is used). Its viability will rely upon its associated computational cost.

The formulation impedance factor will rely upon the displacement associated cost between two zones and it will be calculated by the model graph.


29




3rd&4th Step: Modal split & Assignment to the Network

A

B

road

maritime

road

road

rail

road

chain

cost

CadMult 1 CadMult 2 CadMult 3 ... CadMult n

Prod 1

Prod 2 0 1 0 ... 1

Prod 3 0 0 1 ... 0

...

...

Prod i 0 25% 75% ... 0

Prod n


3rd phase: Assignation

Route assignation:

1) Distribution of freight volume for each O-Dl among different multimodal chains and routes

2) Comparison of minimal path cost

Other aspects to be considered:

- The choice is not based solely on the minimum cost: service level, capacity, etc.

- Uncertainty associated with the choice of routes of similar cost and quality

2nd phase: Association between multimodal chain and type of product

Criteria:-Type of cargo where good can be transported- Availability of qualitative information (regulatory, etc) on the normal behaviour of the product

Multimodal chain: combination of several modes of transport and type of cargo

Multimodal networkMatrix O-D

1st phase: Definition of the existing multimodal chains

30



Thanks for your attention

CETMO www.cetmo.org

[email protected]

Progress in the development of Modelling Flows of People





CETMO

2

Modelling Flows of People

Third Meeting of Expert Group of Action 18Barcelona, 29 November 2010

Index of the presentation

Goals of Modelling Flows of People

Review of existing modelsExamples

Preliminary ConsiderationsDescription of the network in questionZoningDescription of flows of peopleStatistical data

Model StructureLong-distance sub modelConnections Between the two sub modelsShort-distance sub model

Initial Assumptions

3



Goals of Modelling Flows of People

Describe the international people flows among MEDA countries and between them other countries, with special attention to those associated with relations among MEDA countries and between them and the European Union, in order to:

Determine current and future goods flows for the study area.Study the optimal routing of goods through the transport network. Identify conflictive points on the network and analyse possible paths to resolution. Knowing the modal distribution of international passengers flows. Define a tool for assessing possible actions on the transport system. Design scenarios that allow for visualization of flow exchanges under predetermined conditions. Analyze the behaviour of the transport system for different scenarios in future times

All these goals will be a useful tool for planning infrastructure

4



Review of existing models (1/4)To design the model, we reviewed several existing models.

The first round of selections was based on the scale of the model (international or regional) and the objective of the model (infrastructure planning , strategic mobility, demand analysis).

The following models were analysed in the first round: the MEDA Passenger forecasting model, Destin, Trans-Tools, Tina Turkey, Ten Corridors of Helsinki freight and passenger database (PHARE), Strategic Transport Research for European Member States (STREAMS) and the MKmetric-Beta Model (Map-1).

The second round of selections took into account the type of modelling done and the data used, such that it fit the possibilities of our target model.

We conducted an in-depth study of the MEDA Passenger forecasting model, DESTIN, Tina Turkey and Trans-Tools models.

5



Review of existing models (2/4)MEDA Passenger forecasting model

To forecast international passenger flows to or from the MEDA region

Modes of transport: air, maritime and roadThe different modes of transport were modelled separately. Country-country flows were modelled, not assigned to the networkNo breakdown by purpose of trip or nationality of passenger.

Air flows: gravitational model, dependent on the GDP in services. Cell-level correction was performed using the "pivot" method (each individual flow was readjusted based on the ratio between the model results and statistical data, for the base year)

Maritime and road flows: linear elastic model, based on GDP

Country-country air, maritime and road flows (only neighbouring countries) for the base yearHistorical total air, sea and road flows (only a few countries) to or from MEDA countriesHistorical GDP and population by countryPassenger-flow forecasts from the World Tourism OrganizationSocioeconomic data

Objective

Considerations

Data used

Model type

6



DESTIN

To forecast changes in demand for international passenger traffic among the seven countries of the Western Mediterranean region and identify the land network used by travellers to and from the Maghreb by air or sea.

Modes of transport considered for international country-country flows: air, maritime and roadAssignment to the land network of the Maghreb:

Modes considered: road and railRegionalization: NUTS 3 equivalent.

No breakdown by purpose of trip or nationality of passenger.

Objective

Considerations

Review of existing models (3/4)

7



DESTIN

Identifies and studies international country-country flows by mode of transport: air and maritime flows and border crossings

Based on these data, we separately assigned the airport and port flows to the land network.For countries where origin-destination surveys were available for at least one port/airport in the country, the

regional distribution factors obtained on the surveys were applied to all ports/airports in the countryFor countries where no origin-destination surveys were available for any port/airport, a gravitational model

was applied, with no parameters to calibrate

The scarcity of data is equivalent to that experienced by our projectAir: country-country, airport-country and airport-airport flows; total traffic at the airports of the countries

studied and origin-destination surveys for some airportsMaritime: historical sources for the main regular Western Mediterranean lines and origin-destination surveys

for some portsRoad: passenger flows based on border crossingsSocioeconomic data

Data used

Model type


8



TINA TURKEY

The Tina Turkey passenger-transport-demand model is part of a global project that aims to define a primary multimodal transportation network (Core Network), designed as an extension in Turkey of the Trans-European Transport Network, which serves domestic and international traffic between Turkey and Europe.

International land traffic (by road) between Turkey and its 9 neighbouring countries and air traffic between Turkey and the European Union were considered.

Airports were classified as "tourist" or "non-tourist" based on the number of international passengers served in the base year. Growth forecasts obtained from tourism forecasts made by Turkey were applied to international airports, and growth rates for air transport between Turkey and the rest of the world obtained from the EuroMed Transport Infrastructure Network Project were applied to all other airports.

Objective

Considerations


9



TINA TURKEY

Classical 4-step modelling was used−Trip generation: An analysis by population group, based on travel frequencies for each segment of the population. Trip attraction: based on a set of structural socioeconomic variables−Trip distribution: depends on previous steps and a specific cost function for each O-D pair and for each trip purpose−Modal split: based on generalized transport costs−Assignment to the network:

·Road: incremental assignment method, takes into account capacity limits ·Rail: all-or-nothing assignment: the flows for a given O-D pair are assigned to the path of minimum travel time

Map of National Traffic Counts (2004)Traffic counts at the borders of the 9 countries neighbouring Turkey, for the base yearPassenger flows by Turkish airport for the base yearTourism forecasts for TurkeySocioeconomic data

Data used

Model type


10



Population nodes

Airports with international traffic

Ports with international traffic

Border crossings

Nodes

transport nodes

Preliminary Considerations: Description of the Network in Question

Network = nodes + arcs

Arcs

Population nodes correspond to the centroids in the regions of the territory obtained from zoning (Action 18 DB)

Links between nodes where flows of people pass through

11



Preliminary Considerations: Zoning

COUNTRIES ZONES

MEDA Regions in the database

E.U. NUTS2 / NUTS3 / (NUTS0) country (to be defined)

MEDA Neighbouring countries Country

Other Groups of countries (to be defined)

Each region is described in terms of specific socioeconomic variables

12



Preliminary Considerations: Description of Flows of People

Depending on the type of stay in the country of destination

Visitors

Travellers who stay for less than 1 year

Tourists

Visitors who stay overnight

Excursionists

Visitors who do not stay overnight

International Tourists

Non-national tourists

Migrant Tourists

National tourists who live outside the country

Depending on purpose of trip Leisure, tourism, business

Data not available to make distinctions

The people for which flows are modelled are referred to in general as “travellers”. There are different kinds of travellers.

13



Preliminary Considerations: Statistical Data

Socioeconomic variables

Country level (MEDA/EU/Rest of world)

• Population

• GDP

Regional level: MEDA

• Population

• Urbanization level

• Employment

• Tourism indicators

Traveller flows

Country level (MEDA/EU/Rest of world)

• Country-country

• Airport-airport

• Port-port

• At border crossing

Regional level

Uniform data not available for:

• MEDA region–MEDA region

• Area of rest of countries–MEDA region

Statistical Data Available

No relative data on rail transport available

14



However, data are available on country-country traveller flows by transport mode,

and certain socioeconomic variables by MEDA region are also available.

Model Structure

Because data on traveller flows between regions is not available

A classical four-step model cannot be carried out to model traveller flows, given that the parameters cannot be calibrated and the results cannot be validated.

We propose modelling the segments of a single international trip by segments:

Country-country traveller flows

Long distance

Flows within a MEDA country

Short distance

Country 1Country 2 ∈MEDA

O-D O-D

15



Model Structure: Long-distance Submodel

The aim of this submodel is to determine the flows of travellers between each MEDA country and the other countries by mode of transport for a future horizon.

We propose considering the air, maritime and road modes, given that data on rail transport are not available (% of this flow is negligible).

Three options are proposed to achieve this objective

Long-distance submodel 1



ODOD

OD

AirMaritime

RoadMEDA country

Other countries

ODOD

OD

AirMaritime

RoadOther countries

MEDA country

+

16



Long-distance Submodel 1

Prognosis

Horizon socioeconomic variables

Horizon

I. Generation/Attraction

II. Distribution III. Modal split

AirMaritime

RoadBase year socioeconomic variables

Base year

Time value

O-D function of socioeconomic variables.

Classical 3-step model.

Calls for preliminary considerations due to nearly null flows and simplifications.

Country-country

ODOD

OD

OD

OD

ODOD

ODDATA

Base year

AirMaritime

Road

Country-countryHorizon

17



O-D function of socioeconomic variables.

Flows are modelled regardless of transport mode.

Classical two-step modelling. Does not require calculation of travel time value.


Prognosis

Horizon socioeconomic variables

I. Generation/Attraction

II. Distribution

OD

OD

OD Air

Base year socioeconomic variables

DATA

Maritime

Road

OD

OD

OD Air

Maritime

Road

I. + II.

I. + II.

Horizon

Base year

Country - country

Country - country

18




O-D by mode of transport in base year is a piece of data.

Growth prognoses by O-D pair and transport mode are also known.

No modelling required.

In this submodel it is possible to obtain country-country data by transport mode or airport–airport, port-port data and data on travellers at border crossings.

OD

AirMaritime

Road

DATA

OD

AirMaritime

Road

HorizonBase year

Prognosis

Country - countryCountry - country

19



Connections Between the Two Submodels

As a result of long-distance submodels 1 and 2, a matrix is obtained of MEDA country-country O-D trips for each transport mode.

MEDA country – Rest of countries Transport node of MEDA country

Result of long- distance submodel

Starting short- distance submodel matrix

Transformation MEDA country - MEDA country transport node

– Zones of rest of countries

However, as the starting point for the short-distance submodel (and for calibration/validation of long-distance submodels 1 and 2), the transport node matrix of the MEDA country – zone of rest of other countries is needed for each MEDA country.

MEDA country Short-distance submodel

OD OD?

20



Connections Between the Two Submodels

For the transformation MEDA country – MEDA country transport node

Percentages of distribution of passengers of each zone of rest of countries among the nodes of transport of the MEDA country will be used.

Country-country

Result, long-distance submodel

DATA MEDA country transport nodes

Zones of rest of countries

Base year

Each transport node affected by specific zones: its hinterland

Starting matrixes, short- distance submodel

MEDA country transport node

– Zones of rest of countries

OD

AirMaritime

Road%

%

%OD

=x

21



Model Structure: Short-distance Submodel

The aim of this submodel is:

First: for each MEDA country, to distribute incoming and outgoing traveller flows at each transport node to the final destination or initial origin.

Second: assign these short-distance flows within a MEDA country to the land transport network.

For these international travel segments, we propose considering only the road mode.

MEDA country

Zones of rest of countries

22



Short-distance Submodel

First of all, based on a gravitational model, travellers entering or leaving a MEDA country using a specific transport node are assigned either to a final trip destination region or an initial trip origin region.

Gravitational model

% region 1

% region 2…

% region n

MEDA country transport nodes

Zones of the rest of

countries

Assignment to networkThen, based on the minimal costs of road transport, the routes used for each O-D pair can be obtained.

MED

A r

egio

n 1

MED

A r

egio

n 2

MED

A r

egio

n n

MED

A r

egio

n 1

MED

A r

egio

n 2

MED

A r

egio

n n

MED

A r

egio

n 1

MED

A r

egio

n 2

MED

A r

egio

n n

…

23



Initial AssumptionsThe following will not be considered:

- Rail transport- Purpose of trip - Congestion

Modal change option has not been considered within the long distance submodel.

Information about transit air trips in MEDA countries allow their treatment in a particular way (eliminated or added to our short distance submodel).

All travellers who leave return. The total number of trips is equal to the sum of outgoing and incoming trips. Of the total number of trips between two countries, 50% correspond to an origin-destination flow and the other 50% to a destination-origin flow. This is a first assumption which should be verified.

As there are no data to calibrate the gravitational model, the short-distance model will depend on the trip cost squared.

The hinterlands of airports/ports:

- Include several regions.

- Are contained in a single country.

- Cannot divide regions (they include complete regions).

- Several airports/ports can share regions within their hinterland (different hinterlands can be overlapped).

24




CETMO www.cetmo.org

[email protected]

third meeting of experts for action 18 of the rtap meeting of experts for action 18 of the rtap 29th...

Documents