third lemann dialogue – “agricultural and environmental issues in brazil” university of...
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Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil”Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil”University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013
Embrapa Strategic Intelligence SystemEmbrapa Strategic Intelligence System
Geraldo B. Martha Jr.Geraldo B. Martha Jr.Coordinator – Agropensa SystemCoordinator – Agropensa System
Deputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and TrainingDeputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and Training
Brazilian Agriculture:Brazilian Agriculture:Development and Future ProspectsDevelopment and Future Prospects
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Outline
1960s – early 1970s1960s – early 1970s
PresentPresent
FutureFuture
Dependency
Policies
Cometitiveness
Innovations
Sustainability
Institutions
Intensification
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Overcoming Food Insecurity and Achieving Competitiveness in the Agricultural Sector
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• It is well accepted that sustainabilityIt is well accepted that sustainability’’s dimensions – technical, s dimensions – technical, economic, social and environmental – should be pursued;economic, social and environmental – should be pursued;
• Sustainability dimensions’ have strong interdependence linkages and, ideally, should be simultaneously met. In other words, to focus in a unique dimension will not reflect the multiple dimensions of sustainability. Agricultural production systems should design strategies that return win-win situations. When this ideal condition is not an option small loss-big gain situations should be targeted.
Sustainability
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The Development of The Development of Brazilian Agriculture Brazilian Agriculture
(Technical Dimension)(Technical Dimension)
The Development of The Development of Brazilian Agriculture Brazilian Agriculture
(Technical Dimension)(Technical Dimension)
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Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006
Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343
Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153
TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224
Land productivity
100 135 162 196 230 324
Labor productivity
100 129 158 185 241 348
Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).
Total Factor Productivity in Brazilian Agriculture
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Yield growth rates in Brazilian agriculture
Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).
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Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture
Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).
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Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture
Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).
“Productivity explained 79% of the growth in Brazilian beef production in the 1950 – 2006 period. The land-saving effect arising from these
productivity gains was 525 million ha!”
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Intensity of agricultural research investments
ASTI/CGIAR (2012).
Development of a science-based tropical agriculture
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Roles and contribution of agricultural research
Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector
Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector
PrioridadesPrioridadesMain Limitations
Removed byPublic R&D in
Brazil
Main LimitationsRemoved by
Public R&D inBrazil
Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices
Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices
“Tropicalization” of crops and animal
production systems
“Tropicalization” of crops and animal
production systems
Transformation of acidic, poor soils
into highly productive ag. land
Transformation of acidic, poor soils
into highly productive ag. land
Courtesy M.Lopes (2013).
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Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian agriculture
Pereira et al. (2012).
In 2006, the Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian beef and milk production was around 40%
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The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture
(Socio-Economic (Socio-Economic Dimension)Dimension)
The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture
(Socio-Economic (Socio-Economic Dimension)Dimension)
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Evolution of food basket prices in São Paulo, Brazil (1975=100, real prices, Sept.2013)
Data from DIEESE, deflator IGP-DI (FGV), calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).
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The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture
(Environmental Dimension)(Environmental Dimension)
The Development of The Development of Brazilian AgricultureBrazilian Agriculture
(Environmental Dimension)(Environmental Dimension)
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Data from INPE.
Evolution of the deforestation rates
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Natural Cerrado
Water body
Crops
Cultivated pastures
Urban areas
Reforestation
~ 85% of the Amazon Biome and ~ 55 % of the Cerrado Biome are
still covered with the original vegetation !
Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008
Biome conservation in Brazil
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Protected areas and biodiversity potential in selected South America countries
“100” is the maximum biodiversity potential.Data from the World Bank.
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Innovations Connected to Value ChainsInnovations Connected to Value Chains
19
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• A future intensive in knowledge and relationships;A future intensive in knowledge and relationships;
• Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,…);…);
Future prospects
• A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate change, biological security, …);change, biological security, …);
• A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses;A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses;
Adapted from M.Lopes (2013).
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Flow in agricultural value chain
Innovation flow and Embrapa’s macro-themes
Markets, policies and rural development
Production Systems
New sciences: biotechnology, nanotechnology, geotechnology
Source: Embrapa/Agropensa
Natural Resources
and Climate change
Food security,
nutrition and health
Agroindustry and biomass
technology and Green chemistry
Animal and Plant Health and Safety in
the value chain
Automation, Precision Ag.
& ICT
Macro-themes improve the focus and the speed of the intelligence process (collection, organization,
analysis) as well as the diffusion of information and knowledge.
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Brazilian agribusiness composition v. possibilities to aggregate value
USP/ESALQ/Cepea (2013), elaboration G.B. Martha.
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Concluding RemarksConcluding RemarksConcluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
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• There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;pastoral systems will be of central importance;
• The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropicsefficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;;
Concluding remarks
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Martha Jr.(2013).
Limits for the expansion of supply, if 2013 crop area is maintained
Concluding remarks
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Martha Jr.(2013).
Concluding remarks
Pastoral systems intensification and land-use
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• There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;pastoral systems will be of central importance;
• Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment need, capacity strengthening, adoption;need, capacity strengthening, adoption;
• The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropicsefficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;;
Concluding remarks
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Disseminate information (+ ICT), capacity strengthening, TT
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Embrapa Strategic Intelligence System
"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of
Brazilian Agriculture"
Thank You !