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« A dynamic approach of oil production » - Third International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, Berlin, May 25-26, 2004. 1

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Third International Workshop onOil & Gas depletion

Berlin, May 25-26, 2004.

« A dynamic approach of oil production »P. Alba (Consultant) & O. Rech (Economist - IFP)


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approachFrom annual production time series...

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?World Crude Oil Production1860-2004


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach…to a dynamic approach...

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Growthrate

Cumulative productionreaches 0.25 Gt in 1900

then 7.1 Gt in 1945 43.2 Gt in 1973143.5 Gt up to now

1900 1945 1973

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Annual productionreaches 21 Mt in 1900

370 Mt in 1945

3000 Mt in 19733700 Mt today

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CumulativeProductionin GT (log)


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach… by establishing a link between cumulative production and URR

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Growthrate

Cumulative productionreaches 0.25 Gt in 1900

then 7.1 Gt in 1945 43.2 Gt in 1973143.5 Gt up to now

1900 1945 1973

• Pessimists ’ estimate (2500 Gb or 357 GT)

• Optimists ’ estimate (4000 Gb or 571 GT)• USGS ’ 2000 estimate (3021 Gb or 432 GT)

Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR)

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach… by establishing a link between cumulative production and URR

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Growth rate1973

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1945-1973 : Positive slope--> underlying implication : infinite URR--> conclusion : non sustainable trend

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach1/ linking URR estimate to cumulative production

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357 432

[ ]1logloglog )(

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δ571


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach1/ linking URR estimate to cumulative production

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Mt • Pessimists ’ estimate (2500 Gb or 357 GT)



20052008

3,5 Gt

2 Gt


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach2/ extrapolating cumulative production to estimate URR

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y = -0.0193x + 0.2557

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• Linear extrapolation (4028 Gb or 575 GT)

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Mt • Pessimists ’ estimate (2500 Gb or 357 GT)



20052008• Linear extrapolation (4028 Gb or 575 GT)

2022


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y = -0.0193x + 0.2557

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• Linear extrapolation (4028 Gb or 575 GT)

[ ]1logloglog )(

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach3/ beyond cumulative production linear trend

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Growth rate 2004

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y = -0.0193x + 0.2557Linear trend--> reference scenario

y = 0.0118x² - 0.2938x + 1.8525Positive curvature --> diagnosis : low constraint on production

357 432 571



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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach3/ beyond cumulative production linear trend

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Growth rate 2004

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y = -0.0179x + 0.2401Linear trend--> reference scenario




y = -0.0206x² + 0.466x - 2.6019Negative curvature --> diagnosis : high constraint on production

357 432 571



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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach4/ making a diagnosis : from total world production...

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach4/ … to its components : Non-OPEC (excluding FSU)

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y = -0.0099x² + 0.1971x - 0.9345

--> negative curvature--> diagnosis : high constraint on production

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach4/ … to its components : Non-OPEC (excluding FSU)

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• 1988-2004 : peak in 2029 at 2,09 Gt

Linear extrapolation of Non-OPEC (excluding FSU)

cumulative production in 2004 based on different periods of time

• 1991-2004 : peak in 2029 at 2,09 Gt• 1992-2004 : peak in 2025 at 2,03 Gt• 1993-2004 : peak in 2020 at 1,96 Gt• 1994-2004 : peak in 2014 at 1,88 Gt• 1995-2004 : peak in 2011 at 1,85 Gt


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach4/ … to its components : FSU

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Growth rate

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1945-1963 & 1993-2004 : positive slope

--> underlying implication : infinite URR

--> non sustainable trend

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach4/ … to its components : OPEC (11 members)

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From 1973 :--> OPEC production driver : swing producer--> extrapolating cumulative production trend : NOT APPLICABLE

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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach1/ Conclusions and uncertainties

• Dynamic approach :– not a crystal ball– not a substitute to geologists ’ expertise– time by itself does not explain anything– considers 3 dimensions (position - speed - acceleration/deceleration)

• Aims to provide an analytical framework to evaluate :– the consistency of URR estimates versus cumulative production– the consistency of production scenarios versus long term trends

• But dynamic approach not appropriate :– for past FSU production (planned economy before 1990s)– for OPEC production (swing producer since 1973)


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approach2/ Conclusions and uncertainties

• The future of oil :– Pessimists too pessimistic…– Actual linear trend consistent with optimists ’assumptions– 2050 : world crude oil production still above 2000 Mt

• But supply security concerns and geopolitical implications arise before world peak oil :– Non-OPEC production slowing down (peak production before 2020s)– Actual FSU production not sustainable (peak production behind us)

• The question of world peak oil :– High uncertainty related to the date of world peak oil…– … and to OPEC potential supply over the long term


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approachSources and Bibliography

• Sources of data :– 1860 - 1970 : « World energy production 1800-1985 », B. Etemad &

J. Luciani, CNRS & CHEI, Geneva, 1991.– 1971 - 2004 : International Energy Agency - Energy Statistics Division & Oil

Market Report.

• Oil and Gas Science and Technology Journal« A contribution to the methodology of long term energy scenarios »,

vol. 57, n°4, 2002.Downloadable from http://revueogst.ifp.fr/

• Forthcoming publication on dynamic approach methodology.


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Estimating the peak oil through a dynamic approachNon-OPEC (excluding FSU and USA)

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• 1988-2004 : peak in 2023 at 1,83 Gt

Linear extrapolation of Non-OPEC cumulative production

(excluding FSU and USA) in 2004 based on different periods of time

• 1991-2004 : peak in 2022 at 1,80 Gt• 1992-2004 : peak in 2019 at 1,74 Gt• 1993-2004 : peak in 2015 at 1,67 Gt• 1994-2004 : peak in 2011 at 1,60 Gt• 1995-2004 : peak in 2009 at 1,57 Gt

third international workshop on oil & gas depletion berlin, may … · 2017. 5. 4. · « a...

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