©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

ThinkSmallCellWebinarSeries

SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight

DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell

CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkTechnologyResearch

KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts

Dec 2016

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

Agenda

§  IntroducMon,DavidChambers,ThinkSmallCell

§  AnalystForecastsandAssumpMons§  CarolineGabriel,RethinkResearch§  KyungMun,MobileExperts

§  QuesMonandAnswerSession

§  Conclusion

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

AverageWirelessConnecMonSpeed

AverageworldwidedataratesmeasuredbyuserdevicesSource:Opensignal

2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

HSPA LTE Wi-Fi

4.316.52

8.77

2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

HSPA LTE Wi-Fi

4.316.52

8.77

3.3

17.4

10.82014

2016

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

Introducingsomenewchoices

LWA,LWIP Wi-FiAggregaMonboostLTEandWi-Fiinparallel

CompaMblehandsetsandsomecorenetworkequipment

CBRS StandardLTEat3.5GHzFullcellularserviceasstandalone/roaming

DynamicallyallocatedspectrumfromcentraldatabaseserverUSonlyschemefornow

LAA AugmentsLTElicensedwithmodifiedLTEat5GHzBoostsdownloadcapacity

NewphysicallayerchipsListen-Before-Talkrequireslocalintelligence,smallercells

eLAA AddsuplinktoLAAat5GHz SameasLAAbutbi-direcMonal

MulteFire ModifiedLTEat5GHzDownlinkanduplinkCanbeindependentofcellularnetwork

SameaseLAA

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

AnalystViewpointSmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight

DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell

CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch

KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts

Smallcelldeploymentoutlook

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Millions

ofn

ewunitsdep

loye

dpe

ryea

r

Residential Enterpriseprivate Enterprisepublic

Urbanpublic Ruralandremote

Rethinkmethodology

Highestgrowth(79%CAGR)inurban

Densitydrivingnewecosystem

Tippingpointshavebeenlaterthanexpected(2015forecast)

Enterprisetrends

NewdeploymentsofsmallcellsbyenvironmentSourceRethinkTechnologyResearch2016

Theimpactofnewspectrum

CBRSinUSand3.5GHzelsewhere

LTEinunlicensedand5Gdynamicspectrum

NewlicensedbandsandmmWave

Allthesearefocusedondensity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Licensedsub-6GHzband

Unlicensed CBRSand3.5GHz

6GHzto20GHz

Above20GHz

%New

dep

loym

ents

2017 2021

%ofnewsmallcelldeploymentsbyspectrumband.Source:RethinkTechnologyResearch2016

Pathto5GLongsurvivalforLTE

NTTDocomoDeutscheTelekom

Variabletimescalesfor5GLeadingusecases–fixedwireless,largeevents45%ofMNOswillwaitafter2023tomakefirstmovesButdefinitive5Gelementswillstartearlier–C-RAN,density,MEC

Manyofthesestartinsmallcelllayer,andwillreshapeit

RETHINKTECHNOLOGYRESEARCH2016

8

79

69

47

1613

45

5

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5Gradio DenseHetNet C-RANandMEC

%ofM

NOs

Before2020 2020-2023 2024andlater

%ofMNOsplanningtoembarkon5GandHetNet.Source:Rethink

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

AnalystViewpoint

SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight

DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell

CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch

KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts

SmallCellShipmentForecast

CarrierspreferunlicensedLTE

Unlicensedspectrumprovideslower“costperbit”uniteconomics

IncreasingUseofUnlicensedLTEAPs

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

AudiencePoll

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

Q&ASession

SmallCellAnalystForecastSpotlight

DavidChambersFounderandSeniorAnalystThinkSmallCell

CarolineGabrielHeadofResearchRethinkResearch

KyungMunSeniorAnalystMobileExperts

©2016ThinkSmallCellLtd.

Followup

•  FindawiderangeofinsightsandinformaMon– www.thinksmallcell.com– Signupforournewsleber– ContactusregardingmarkeMngandwhitepapers

•  Contacteitherofouranalystsforfollowup– CarolineGabriel,RethinkResearch– KyungMun,MobileExperts