thinking like a futurist. area of anthropology that uses the perspective, theories, models, and...
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Thinking like a futurist
Area of anthropology that uses the perspective, theories, models, and methods of anthropology in an anticipatory manner.
Allows individuals, citizens, leaders, and governments to be better able to make informed policy decisions
Improving the community's or society's chances for realizing preferred futures and avoiding undesired ones
The term ‘anticipatory anthropology’ was introduced by anthropologist Marion Lundy Dobbert in 1984
Anthropologists in preceding years had different terms for the same idea:
futurology, futuristics, anthropology of the
future, and speculative
anthropology of cultural futures
Futurists: Try to suggest things
that might happen in the future, so that people can decide what they want to make happen.
By looking at current trends, for example, it is possible to make a projection of what might be the case in the future
The World Future Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future
By studying the future, people can better anticipate what lies ahead.
They can actively decide how they will live in the future, by making choices today and realizing the consequences of their decisions.
The future doesn't just happen: People create it through their action -- or inaction -- today.
If we can predict how culture will react to specific imputes, we can make some predictions about society
The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future
Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.
President Kennedy's dream of placing a man on the moon and predicting it would occur before 1970
This dream was embraced by America, and supported by an aggressive funding of research and development, and the implementation of a time factored plan
The vision—the dream, the scenario—was realized in 1969 when homo sapiens took a first step onto the moon's pristine dusty surface—“an achievement that awed the world”
This sequence—the ‘dreaming’ followed by the ‘planning’ of actions to be implemented in pursuit of the dream—comprise the nature of futures studies and planning.
Also reflects human culture itself.
Anthropologists have been actively involved in the art of anticipation from a cultural perspective for well over 30 years.
Example: Margret Mead
Mead was persistent in her efforts from 1943 to 1977 to apply anthropology in anticipating and pre-figuring the future
Likely inspired the emergence of ‘futures studies’ in the mid-50's by her interest and research
She viewed human future as "neither predetermined nor predictable: it is, rather, something which lies within our hands, to be shaped and molded by the choices we make in present time."
Sharing a pattern, or system, of culture enables people to communicate and interact with one another appropriately and efficiently.
Systems also allow us to acculturate the next generation
Cultural Systems also allow us to predict future social systems
We can effect future cultural systems now by our choices now
Identifying those systems is where anthropologists come in…
Anthropologists became involved in anticipation during social impact assessment research. They assessed the
social gains and losses that might be expected to accompany a program of planned change.
So applied research projects are concerned with assessing the future impacts of present policies
Thus the birth of anticipatory anthropology
Futurists reflect their culture without knowing it;
Speaking for the world and forget that it is their cultural biases, their disciplinary education and their social character that is being expressed
Futurists must acknowledge the existence and the value of cultures, attitudes and objectives that are different from their own
Futurists must be aware of etic systems of values and beliefs being projected to someone else's future
This may not end in the people willingly participating in the way of life that we would create for them (ex. eating beef in India)
Anthropology sensitizing people to other ways of life, values and worldviews
Some VERY different from their own
Anthropology brings appreciation for the potentiality of cultural diversity
Understanding of the human condition Ethnographic fieldwork approach
First hand observation of, and participation in, the daily behavior of the group under study for a prolonged period of time (over one year) in which the myriad details of everyday life, seasonal and unusual events and happenings may be experienced.
Because of this, anthropology can contribute to discussion and decision making by citizens, activists, leaders and governments of a given society, community or organization.
Especially where serious attention is paid to the means whereby preferable futures may be achieved, and undesirable ones avoided
What does Razak hope will happen? Truly collaborative emic/etic futures
studies approach to the visioning and crafting of the future will become a standard approach used in the practice of foresight planning
Collaborative research creating an interface with theory, hindsight, practice and objectivity to provide a necessary broader context to the visioning process
The ethnographic approach used in conjunction with necessary quantitative data gathering and analysis, can straddle the divide between an etic (outsider point of view) based approach and an emic-centered approach to anticipatory planning.
Anticipatory planning is really at the core of Futurism
Anthropologists have a unique set of tools for this kind of planning
Anthropologists should be involved in regional planning programs
Anthropologists should be involved in predicting social trends impacting development
So, if anticipatory anthropology seeks to understand cultural trends as they effect social organizations…
What have we learned?
Enter Raymond Scupin
Globalization – the growth of global interdependence
Colonialization – the establishment of settler colonies, trading posts, and plantations with the metropole's own population, colonialism deals with this and the ruling of new territories' existing peoples.
(largely economic over the last 100 years)
Preindustrial societiesForagersHorticulturalistPastoralistIntensive agriculture
Overall limited impact Global Industrialism spreads after the
industrial revolution Agribusiness (Mechanized Agriculture)
Green Revolution Not very green
Fossil fuels, Chemical Fertilizers, Genetically Modified Seeds, Pesticides All energy intensive
Bhopal incident, Rivers in the Midwest, other drainage
Air and Water Pollution Automobile, coal power, industry
Greenhouse Effect and global warming CO2 build up…Natural or human-made?
Doesn’t matter if we can see the effects…
Global growth over human history Paleolithic: 10 million total population
over the entire period Neolithic: 300 million by 1 A.D. (advent of
agriculture 10,000) Industrial Revolution: Demographic
Transition theory… 1900: 1.6 billion 1950: 2.5 billion 2000: + 6 billion 2040: + 8 billion 2050: + 10 billion
Assumes a close connection between fertility and morality rates and socio-economic development.Phase one = high fertility rate is countered by a
high morality rateForagers such as the !Kung
Phase two = population increases quickly due to lower morality rates and higher fertility rates Industrial Europe in the 1500s
Phase three = fertility rates drop due to family planning and increasing costs of child rearingGermany/Italy today
U.S. 307,571,579 (300 Million) One birth every 7 seconds One death every 13 seconds One international migrant every 29 seconds Net gain of one person every 9 seconds
World 6,787,153,505 (6.7 Billion) Do we need to control population? Or will
technological and economic adaptation allow us to continue to grow?
In the wealthy industrialized Core countries of the U.S., Japan, Europe
Low growth: below ZPG for some (Germany)
Peripheral Countries such as India, Bangladeshi, etc Extremely fast growth rate
Globalization & death rate falls High rates of population growth: 3% doubles population every 25 years 4% doubles population every 15 years
Industrial technology: high energy usage, such technology necessary to compete in world market
Wealthy core countries: 15% of world population
Uses 80% of energy reserves India, China, Mexico show high rate of
increasing energy use…
The loss of biodiversity Biodiversity is the genetic and biological
variation with and among different species of plants and animals
About 50% of all species live in tropical rainforests
Global trends toward resource overuse leading to loss of biodiversity
Greatest level of mass extinction in global history?
Pessimistic and Optimistic views on globalization Limits to growth model
What can the world sustain? Do we have the right to destroy all other species for our own continued expansion?
Pessimistic forecasts The Doomsday Model
Club of Rome; predicted that at current resource use levels would lead to scarcity and economic collapse
Run out of resources in 100 years Logic of growth model
Assumes that natural resources are infinite and that economic growth can continue indefinitely without long term harm to the environment
Argues population growth a stimulus for, not deterrent to, economic progress
Technology will solve all problems Ethnographic Research on the green
revolution Positive and negative assessments
Case Study=Sikh village in India…adopted green revolution successfully
Villagers took economic risks that paid off Villagers willing to learn new skills Ethnographers contribution…his detailed report
lead to his involvement in the planning process
Knowledge can solve all problems Ethnographic research in Haiti
Intensive agriculture Peasant farmers cut forests for fuel (cannot
afford to buy fuel on wages) Do not value replanting local varieties of trees
(took too long to grow…) Introduction of new tree species New “tree farms” owned by peasant co-ops Success lead to localized production of for-profit
commodity
Conferences/Summits on Climate Change
Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentRepresents industrialized nations
Kyoto Protocol established targets and limits for greenhouse gasesBush Administration withdrew
from the accords
Sustainability Model Suggests that societies globally need
environments and technologies that provide subsistence
Model encourages resource management for future generations
Encourages growth that does not damage the environment
Requires global movement, not nation by nation solutions
Multinational capitalism spreads Are multinationals the new social institution? Multinationals reorganizing industry Eventually assume management of global
affairs? Problems? Positive assessment of Multinationals?
Jobs, technology, capital. Enhanced global economic development leads to reduction in poverty.
Negative Assessment? Cheap labor, pollution, inequalities. Create
benefits for wealthy elite, majority of population doesn’t participate in modernization
Nation-state too small? Growth of the European Union
Global problems need multilateral solutions Unified European continent?
Population, environment, economy, terrorism World Bank, NAFTA, European Union, UN Nation-state is too large?
Perceived threat to ethnic identify Local level interests not being served
Localization of identity and the new identity movements like Scottish and Quebec independence
THESE MOVEMENTS ARE A REFLECTION OF GLOBALIZATION AND THE WEAKINING OF NATIONALISTIC TIES!!!
Globalization of the world economy Changes in the socialist countries
State administered economies failed to compete globally (with one notable exception…)
Soviet Russia falls…Russian leaders call for economic reform Adaptation of free-market capitalism Cultural patterns lead to substantial hardships Rise of crony capitalism (appointing people
without proper skills because of loyalty) and corruption
Eastern Europe Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia all reformed economies in the 1990s
China; liberalization of economy. Little political reform. Necessity of free speech and civil liberties for expanding market economy?
Globalization creates secularization Religion becomes separated from economy/environment Individualization of religion
Responses to secularization Fundamentalism; response to globalization’s challenge to
traditional beliefs Islamic fundamentalism Christian (end of times cults) Jewish (zionist colonialists) Hindu (anti-Islamic movements) Buddhist (anti-Chinese movements)
Re-emphasis on tradition Religious substance as a means of restoring meaning to
individuals lives Gives people meaning and understanding of otherwise
chaotic lives Fearful of losing culture, values, traditions
Active recording of local responses to globalization.
Understanding of dislocations, loss of identity
Understanding of localization and sustainability
Understanding of specific cultural aspirations
Synthesis of local studies with studies of global conditions
Anthropological studies of trends can help understand the globalization process