Thematic Area:

Disaster Risk Reduction and

Resilience

• Strengthening disaster risk modelling,assessment, mapping, monitoring andmulti-hazard early warning systems.

• Integrating disaster risk reduction intorelated development activities.

• Maximizing existing regionalcooperation mechanisms.

• Improving analysis and capacitybuilding.

• Promote a “Build Back Better”approach.

• Coherence with the Sendai Framework

and the 2030 Agenda.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION

2030 Agenda in South and South West Asia:

Resilience holds the key

Hunger Poverty

DisastersConnecting

the dots Inequality

Conflict Climate variability/change

Coherence of

SDGs/Sendai

Framework

Policy

Tools

Actions

Message #1

Disaster risk is outpacing resilience.

Human cost significant,

while economic cost rising

Asia-Pacific:

Human cost of natural disasters, 1970–2016

• 2 million lives lost (56% of global

fatalities)

• 88 % of people affected in the world

Earthquake/ Tsunami

45%

Storm37%

Flood10%

Others8%

Asia-Pacific

2,038,976

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

Asia and the Pacific Rest of the World

Estimated damage, as % of GDP,

is rising in the Asia-Pacific region

Economic cost: Asia-Pacific has lost $1.3

trillion due to natural disasters (1970-2016)

Damage and future estimates in South

and South-West Asian countries

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Afg

han

ista

n

Ban

glad

esh

Bh

uta

n

Ind

ia

Iran

(Is

lam

ic R

ep. o

f)

Mal

div

es

Nep

al

Pak

ista

n

Sri L

anka

Turk

ey

Damage per year2000-2016(% of GDP)

Earthquake Extreme temperatureFlood Storm

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Afg

hanista

n

Bangla

desh

Bhuta

n

India

Iran (Is

lam

ic R

ep. of)

Nepal

Pakista

n

Sri L

anka

Turk

ey

Average annual loss by 2030

(% of GDP)

Earthquake Wind Others Flood

Message #2

Hazards are intensifying with

transboundary geographical shifts.

Transboundary flooding (Scenarios 2010 and 2030)

$34.7B

$16.5B

$6.3B

Ganges-Bramaputra-MeghnaBangladesh, Bhutan, China and India

$5.2B

IndusChina, Pakistan and India

$1B

$1.5B

MekongCambodia, China, Lao PDR,

Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam

$0.9B

$1B$1.9B

AmurChina and Russian Federation

$0.9B

$1B$1.5B

A substantial increase in

flood losses under both

moderate and severe

climate scenarios.

China, India, Bangladesh

and Pakistan will

experience two to three

times more in flood losses

The transboundary flood

losses will range from 1.2

to 6 times more in the

major river-basins

Tropical cyclones will have

shorter return periods with

increasing storm surges and wind

speeds.

In the Pacific basin, the track of

tropical cyclones may shift

eastward or northward.

Three times increase in the

number of people and economic

assets exposed

Tropical cyclone –increasing complexity

Message #3

Increased scale, and more transboundary

impacts on vulnerability and hunger

El Nino and

monsoon variability

intensify the risk of

extreme weather,

slow onset disasters

Agricultural Stress Index (ASI)

% of cropland area affected by drought

per GAUL 2 region

Non-cropland pixels excluded

METOP-AVHRR

WGS84, Geographic Lat/Lon

Source: Global Information and Early Warning System of Food and Agriculture (GIEWS),

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Jun – Sep 2015

3 months

May - Sep 2016

5 months

Oct 2016 - Jan 2017

4 months

Dec 2016 - Jan 2017

2 months

Mar - Apr 2016

1.5 months

May – Oct 2015

5 months

Mar Aug -2015

5 months

Feb - Jul 2016

4 months

Apr - Jul 2016

4 months

Jan - Mar 2015

2 months

Apr – May 2015

1 month

Apr - Jun 2016

2 months

Nov 2015 - Feb 2016

3 months

Nov 2015 - Mar 2016

4 months

<10

10 - 25

25 - 40

40 - 55

55 - 70

70 - 85

>= 85

Off season

no data

no seasons

no cropland

ASI (%)

2015/2016 El Nino triggered severe weather anomalies

and impacted 28 countries of Asia-Pacific

Region’s hunger and climate variability is wide-spread and critical

2015 scenario 2050 scenario

Message #4

Disasters keep people in poverty, push people into poverty and transmit inter-

generational poverty

2.30%

12.60%

14.50%

23.60%

35.60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Vanuatu, 2015, Cyclone Pam

Sri Lanka, 2016, Floods andLandslides

Fiji, 2016, Cyclone Winston

Philippines, 2013, CycloneHaiyan

Pakistan, 2011, Floods

Population that can potentially slip below poverty…

Disasters cause the near poor – those living on between

$1.90 and $3.10 per day – to fall into poverty.

In Asia-Pacific, 400

million people live in

extreme poverty

under $1.90 per day

poverty line, while 36

per cent of the

population live close

to the poverty line, on

less than $3.10 per

day

Disasters and the poverty trap

Primary school enrolment dropped after disasters in Pakistan

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

En

rollm

ent

Year

2005

Earthquake

2010

Floods

2011

Floods

$1 in asset losses results in larger well-being losses for the poor

Message #5

Disasters widen inequality

The disproportionate impacts

of disasters on income, assets

and well-being losses on

poorer countries and people

widen inequalities.

In megacities, 56 per cent of

the populations with medium

or high levels of inequality are

located in extreme disaster

risk areas. The results are

similar for smaller cities.0

20

40

60

80

100

Extreme High Low

Popula

tio

n (

mill

ions)

Disaster risk classification, Multi-hazard

Low inequality

(Gini index 20-29)

Medium inequality

(Gini index 30-39)

High inequality

(Gini index 40-49)

Megacities of 10 million or more

Nexus of disaster and inequality

SSWA Cities @ risk

2030

• Population at extreme risk: 243

million

2014

• Number of cities with people

at extreme risk: 85

• Population at extreme risk:

166 million

Message #6

There is a growing nexus of disaster,

poverty, inequality and conflict

Disaster-poverty-inequality and conflict

4.5

4.5

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.8

6.6

6.6

7.8

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Cambodia

Russian Federation

Azerbaijan

Philippines

Solomon Islands

Iran

Turkey

Nepal

Korea DPR

Bangladesh

India

Papua New Guinea

Myanmar

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Conflict risk profiles (INFORM index)

Localized conflict incidents,

1991–2015

Disasters bring unstable economic conditions that can exacerbate heighten social exclusion –

creating fertile ground for conflict.

Conflicts undermine the capacity and commitment of states to prevent natural disasters and

humanitarian crises.

Pathway to Prevention

Dialogue and Peace Building

Intergovernmental Platform

Addressing Social Inequality

Managing Climate Risk (Drought, Flood)

Managing Natural Resources, Effective and inclusive

Addressing Migration Challenges

Call for action at

regional level

Regional early warning systems

Sharing data and knowledge

Building regional capacity

Thematic IssueDisaster Risk Reduction and Resilience

ESCAP Resolution 73/7Synchronizing Sendai Framework with related SDGs

through UN Regional Coordination Mechanism

• .. to support and facilitate multi-hazard early

warning systems, impact-based forecasting

and disaster risk assessment to strengthen

regional cooperation mechanisms.

Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster

per 100,000 people

Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global domestic product

(GDP)

Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP, including

disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic

services

Number of countries with national and local disasters risk reduction

strategies

Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local

disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework

for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Goal 1

Target 1.5

Goal 11

Target 11.5

Goal 11

Target 11.b

Goal 13

Target 13.1

Goal/TargetTarget

ESCAP Resolution 73/7Synchronizing Sendai Framework with related SDGs through

UN Regional Coordination Mechanism

Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience NetworkRegional road map for implementing the 2030 agenda

for sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific

Regional Platform for Multi-hazard Early Warning System

Regional Space Applications for DRR

Regional Hub of Knowledge and Innovation

Analytical reports

Asia-Pacific Disaster Report

Impact outlooks

Policy briefs

Climate risk information, scenarios and outlooks

Risk assessment tools and techniques

Regional cooperation and capacity development activities

Financing for DRR

Regional Platform for Multi-hazard Early Warning System

1111111111111

Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network (APDRN)

Pillar 1 - Regional Platform of Multi-

hazard Early Warning System

Financing Mechanisms

ESCAP’s Extra Budgetary Cooperation Trust Funds

and Regular Budget Contributions

Extreme

Weather

Events

Tropical cyclones/typhoons in

partnership with WMO..

Geophysic

al disasters

Tsunamis and earthquakes,

UNESCO/IOC..

Slow-onset

disasters

El Nino, Droughts, Sand and

Dust Storms,

RIMES, WMO, UNCCD, UNEP

Disaster information management

Asian and the Pacific Centre for the Development of

Disaster Information Management

Hazard clusters

International

Network for Multi-

Hazard Early

Warning Systems

Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in 2030 Agenda

Thank you!

For more information:

Sanjay Srivastava

Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction

ESCAP

srivastavas@un.org