the world of coronaviruses: sars, mers, and …...• 58 (30%) hypertension, 36 (19%) diabetes, 15...
TRANSCRIPT
The World of Coronaviruses: SARS, MERS, and COVID-19
Meagan Deming MD, PhD
Wilbur H. Chen, MD, MS, FACP, FIDSA
18-Mar-2020
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Respiratory Viruses
• Influenza
• Parainfluenza
• RSV
• Rhinovirus
• Adenovirus
• Human Coronavirus
• Enteroviruses (Coxsackie, Echo)
• Human Parechovirus (1999)
• Human Metapneumovirus (2001)
• Bocavirus (2005)
• Zoonotic agents:Hendra virus (1994), Nipah virus (1998), SARS (2003), MERS (2013)
Responsible for 15-40% of all common cold-like infections
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Coronaviruses
• Single-stranded positive-sense RNA viruses
• 4 seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV): 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1
• endemic in bats – risk of zoonotic infection to humans
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
3 Novel Coronaviruses emerged in the last 18 years
SARS-CoV (2002)Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-associated coronavirus• 8098 cases w/774
deaths, ~10% CFR • 30 countries affected• Economic loss ~$80-
100 billion• Nov 2002 – July 2003
MERS-CoV (2012)Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-associated coronavirus• 2499 cases w/861
deaths, ~35% CFR • 27 countries affected• Economic loss? • April 2012 – present
COVID-19SARS-CoV-2
• 60,363 cases w/1,370 deaths, ~1-2% CFR
• 28 countries affected
• Economic loss?
• Dec 2019 – present
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Recent History of Other Zoonotic Infections (Emerging & Re-emerging Diseases)
H5N1
SARS
West Nile
Nipah
Dengue
H3N2v
MERSH7N9
EbolaChikungunya
Zika
Hendra
H1N1pdm
2019-nCoV
Hendra 1994H5N1 1997Nipah 1998West Nile (Americas) 1999SARS 2003H1N1pdm 2009H3N2v 2011MERS-CoV 2012H7N9 2013Chikungunya 2013Ebola 2014Zika (Americas) 2015Dengue (Americas) 2016Ebola (Central Africa) 2018
nCoV 2019
Ebola
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Nat Rev Micro 2014; 12:822-31
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization
Science 2008; 320: 340-6
Flyways of migratory birds
WHO Surveillance of circulating influenza viruses
Predicting Zoonotic Threats(lessons from Pandemic Influenza)
Coronavirus or COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 or Wuhan or novel coronavirus or…
https://xkcd.com/2275/
What’s in a name?
The disease:CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Coronavirus or COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 or Wuhan or novel coronavirus or…
What’s in a name?
The disease:CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019
(COVID-19)
The virus: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2)
Coronavirus or COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 or Wuhan or novel coronavirus or…
What’s in a name?
The disease:CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019
(COVID-19)
The virus: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2)
80% sequence identity to SARS-CoV
Gorbalenya AE, Baker SC, Baric RS, Groot RJ De, Gulyaeva AA, Haagmans BL, et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses – a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. BioRxiv 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.937862.Wrapp D, Wang N, Corbett K, Goldsmith J, Hsieh C-L, Abiona O, et al. Cryo-EM Structure of the 2019-nCoV Spike in the Prefusion Conformation. Science (80- ) 2020:1–9.
Emergent Coronaviruses
Sheahan, T. Preparing for future pandemics, today with broad-spectrum antivirals. Commentary (Jan 2020) https://naturemicrobiologycommunity.nature.com/users/341687-timothy-sheahan/posts/58125-preparing-for-future-pandemics-today-with-broad-spectrum-antivirals
2002, China: ~8437 infected worldwide, 774 deaths.(10% CFR) • Severe atypical pneumonia
CoV outbreaks: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
1. Lin Y, et al. (2004) Antivir Ther (Lond) 9: 287–289.2. Ksiazek TG et al. (2003) N Engl J Med 348: 1953–1966.
3. Peiris J et al.(2004) Nat Med 10: S88–S97.4. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index2.html
SARS Coronavirus
1 2
4
2002, China: ~8437 infected worldwide, 774 deaths.(10% CFR) • Severe atypical pneumonia
• Single spillover - controlled by public health measure alone
1. Lin Y, et al. (2004) Antivir Ther (Lond) 9: 287–289.2. Ksiazek TG et al. (2003) N Engl J Med 348: 1953–1966.
3. Peiris J et al.(2004) Nat Med 10: S88–S97.4. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index2.html
SARS Coronavirus
1 2
CoV outbreaks: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
4
2002, China: ~8437 infected worldwide, 774 deaths.(10% CFR) • Severe atypical pneumonia
• Single spillover - controlled by public health measure alone
• Progressive age-dependent mortality
Age Mortality3
0-24 0%
25-44 6%
45-65 15%
65+ 52%
1. Lin Y, et al. (2004) Antivir Ther (Lond) 9: 287–289.2. Ksiazek TG et al. (2003) N Engl J Med 348: 1953–1966.
3. Peiris J et al.(2004) Nat Med 10: S88–S97.4. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index2.html
SARS Coronavirus
1 2
CoV outbreaks: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
CoV outbreaks: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
MERS situation update, November 2019. WHO. http://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/mers-cov/mers-outbreaks.html (Accessed 3/2/20)
2012, Saudi Arabia: 2494 cases (lab-confirmed), 858 deaths. (35% CFR)• Severe atypical pneumonia
• Progressive age-dependent mortality
• Ongoing primary infections (camels)
CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
1/1
3/2
0
12
/31
/19
1/2
0/2
0
2/1
3/2
0
2/2
0/2
0
2/2
9/2
0
2/2
7/2
0
1/3
0/2
0
in China
outside China
12/31/2019 atypical pneumonia identified in Wuhan, China1/13/2020 Case in Thailand1/20/2020 1st Case in Washington State, US1/30/2020 WHO declared Public Health Emergency of
International Concern2/27/2020 updated global risk to High Risk2/29/2020 1st US death
1/1
3/2
0
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
100,330 infections; 3408 deaths (crude CFR 3.4%)• Severe atypical pneumonia
• Progressive age-dependent mortality
• Single spillover event (probably)
CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
200K infections; 8008 deaths (crude CFR 4%)• Severe atypical pneumonia
• Progressive age-dependent mortality
• Single spillover event (probably)
CoronaVirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
200K infections; 8008 deaths (crude CFR 4%)• Severe atypical pneumonia
COVID-19 diagnosis
• 90% of patients with COVID-19 are febrile at some point during hospitalization, but only 44% were febrile on admission
• 80-100% of hospitalized patients with imaging abnormalities• Usually bilateral, ground glass progressing to consolidation, peripheral and
posterior
• Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, Zhu F, Liu X, Zhang J, et al. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA 2020 (In press).• Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;6736:1–7.• Song F, Shi N, Shan F, Zhang Z, Shen J, Lu H, et al. Emerging Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Pneumonia. Radiology 2020 (In press).
Admission Day +5
COVID-19 diagnosis
• Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, Zhu F, Liu X, Zhang J, et al. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA 2020 (In press).• Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;6736:1–7.• Song F, Shi N, Shan F, Zhang Z, Shen J, Lu H, et al. Emerging Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Pneumonia. Radiology 2020 (In press).
Admission
Day +5
Day +3
Nonspecific CT findings:• GGO • Consolidations• Crazy paving• Rarely nodular• Occasional pleural effusions
COVID-19 diagnosis
• 90% of patients with COVID-19 are febrile at some point during hospitalization, but only 44% were febrile on admission
• 80-100% of hospitalized patients with imaging abnormalities• Usually bilateral, GGO progressing to consolidation, peripheral and posterior
• Sensitivity 97%, Specificity 25% (in a time of pandemic)
• Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, Zhu F, Liu X, Zhang J, et al. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA 2020 (In press).• Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;6736:1–7.• Ai T, Yang Z, Hou H, Zhan C, Chen C, Lv W, et al. Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases. Radiology 2020;2019:200642.
Spectrum of Illness
• ~80% mild-moderate
• 13.8% severe• dyspnea, RR ≥30/minute, O2 sat
≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours
• 6.1% are critical • respiratory failure, septic shock,
and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure
• Crude CFR 1.4-4%
Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).Wu, Z. et al. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China; Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. Feb 24, 2020.
Spectrum of Illness
• ~80% mild-moderate
• 13.8% severe• dyspnea, RR ≥30/minute, O2 sat
≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours
• 6.1% are critical • respiratory failure, septic shock,
and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure
• Crude CFR 1.4-4%
0 20 40 60 80
0
20
40
60
80
Mortality by age
Age group
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality COVID-19
MERS
SARS
Wu, Z. et al. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China; Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. Feb 24, 2020.
Chan-yeung M, Xu R. SARS: epidemiology. Respirology 2003;8:S9–S14.MERS mortality by age curtesy of Vineet Menachery (personal communication)
Clinical Course
Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, Fan G, Liu Y, Liu Z, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 2020;6736:1–9.
191 patients in 2 hospitals in Wuhan, China• 137 discharged, 54 died (28%)
Clinical Course
• 191 patients in 2 hospitals in Wuhan, China• 137 discharged, 54 died (28%)
• 48% had comorbidity: • 58 (30%) hypertension, 36 (19%) diabetes, 15 (8%) coronary artery disease
Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, Fan G, Liu Y, Liu Z, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 2020;6736:1–9.Wu, Z. et al. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China; Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. Feb 24, 2020
0 5 10 15
Case fatality rate
% cases
Hypertension 12.8
Diabetes 5.3
Cardiovascular disease 4.2
Chronic respiratory disease 2.4
Cancer (any) 0.5
none 74
data missing 53
10.5%
7.3%
6%
6.3%
5.6%
In Children?
Retrospective study of 366 children with respiratory infections admitted to hospitals in Wuhan
• 23 (6.3%) Influenza A
• 20 (5.5%) Influenza B
• 6 (1.6%) SARS-CoV-2
• No deaths
[1] Liu W, Zhang Q, Chen J, Xiang R, Song H, Shu S, et al. Detection of Covid-19 in Children in Early January 2020 in Wuhan, China. N Engl J Med 2020:2019–21.[2] Wei M, Yuan J, Liu Y, Fu T, Yu X, Zhang Z-J. Novel Coronavirus Infection in Hospitalized Infants Under 1 Year of Age in China. JAMA 2020.
All hospitalized infants (28d to 1 year) diagnosed with COVID-19 Dec through Feb 6 in China:
9 infants (7 female)
• All presumed from a family member• 4 with fever, 2 mild URI, 1 asymptomatic,
2 unknown
In pregnancy?
• All 3rd trimester
• 1 ICU admission (5%)
• 8 (42%) pre-term deliveries • none spontaneous
• 1 neonatal death
• No evidence of virtual transmission
19 women in published or pre-published studies, delivering 20 babies
Mullins E, Evans D, Viner R, O’Brien P, Morris E. Coronavirus in Pregnancy and Delivery: Rapid Review and Expert Consensus. MedRxiv 2020;preprint.
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Mair-Jenkins J, et al. The effectiveness of convalescent plasma and hyperimmune immunoglobulin for the treatment of severe acute respiratory infections of viral etiology: A systematic review and exploratory meta-analysis. J Infect Dis. 2015;211(1):80–90.
Steroids
Chloroquine
SARS convalescent sera associated with reduction in mortality:• Absolute reduction ranged from 7% (95%
CI, −2.39 to 18.68) to 23% (95% CI, 5.59–42.02) (2 studies, +risk of bias)
• 4 noncomparative studies – CFR 0 to 12%
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
SARS convalescent sera associated with reduction in mortality:• Absolute reduction ranged from 7% (95%
CI, −2.39 to 18.68) to 23% (95% CI, 5.59–42.02) (2 studies, +risk of bias)
• 4 noncomparative studies – CFR 0 to 12%
Mair-Jenkins J, et al. The effectiveness of convalescent plasma and hyperimmune immunoglobulin for the treatment of severe acute respiratory infections of viral etiology: A systematic review and exploratory meta-analysis. J Infect Dis. 2015;211(1):80–90. Lv H, Wu NC, Tsang OT, Yuan M, Perera M, Leung WS, et al. Cross-reactive antibody response between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV infections. BioRxiv 2020;prerprint:1–20.
Steroids
Chloroquine
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L, Yang X, Liu J, Xu M, et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 2020:2019–21.
Steroids
Chloroquine
“Ineffective”
Robustly inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L, Yang X, Liu J, Xu M, et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 2020:2019–21.Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Department and Guangdong Provincial Health and Health Commission's Multicenter Collaboration Group on Chloroquine Phosphate for New Coronavirus Pneumonia. Expert Consensus on Chloroquine Phosphate for New Coronavirus Pneumonia. Chinese Journal of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Medicine, 2020,43 (2020-02-20) .
Steroids
Chloroquine Chloroquine:• Robustly inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture• Ongoing study(ies) – may improve clinical
outcomes• Available, known safety and dosing profile
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L, Yang X, Liu J, Xu M, et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 2020:2019–21.Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Department and Guangdong Provincial Health and Health Commission's Multicenter Collaboration Group on Chloroquine Phosphate for New Coronavirus Pneumonia. Expert Consensus on Chloroquine Phosphate for New Coronavirus Pneumonia. Chinese Journal of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Medicine, 2020,43 (2020-02-20) .
Steroids
Chloroquine
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Sheahan TP, Sims AC, Leist SR, Schäfer A, Won J, Brown AJ, et al. Comparative therapeutic efficacy of remdesivir and combination lopinavir, ritonavir, and interferon beta against MERS-CoV. Nat Commun. 2020;11(1).
Steroids
Chloroquine
COVID-19 treatment options?
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L, Yang X, Liu J, Xu M, et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 2020:2019–21.
Steroids
Chloroquine
Robustly inhibits SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture
COVID-19 treatment options?
1. Agostini ML, et al. Coronavirus susceptibility to the antiviral remdesivir (GS-5734) is mediated by the viral polymerase and the proofreading exoribonuclease. MBio. 2018;9(2):1–15. 2. Sheahan TP, Sims AC, Leist SR, Schäfer A, Won J, Brown AJ, et al. Comparative therapeutic efficacy of remdesivir and combination lopinavir, ritonavir, and interferon beta against MERS-CoV. Nat Commun.
2020;11(1).
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*Steroids
ChloroquineLopinavir
COVID-19 treatment options?
1. Agostini ML, et al. Coronavirus susceptibility to the antiviral remdesivir (GS-5734) is mediated by the viral polymerase and the proofreading exoribonuclease. MBio. 2018;9(2):1–15. 2. Sheahan TP, Sims AC, Leist SR, Schäfer A, Won J, Brown AJ, et al. Comparative therapeutic efficacy of remdesivir and combination lopinavir, ritonavir, and interferon beta against MERS-CoV. Nat Commun.
2020;11(1).
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*Steroids
ChloroquineLopinavir
COVID-19 treatment options?
1. Agostini ML, et al. Coronavirus susceptibility to the antiviral remdesivir (GS-5734) is mediated by the viral polymerase and the proofreading exoribonuclease. MBio. 2018;9(2):1–15. 2. Sheahan TP, Sims AC, Leist SR, Schäfer A, Won J, Brown AJ, et al. Comparative therapeutic efficacy of remdesivir and combination lopinavir, ritonavir, and interferon beta against MERS-CoV. Nat Commun.
2020;11(1).
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*Steroids
ChloroquineLopinavir
Lopinavir/ritonavir:Not recommended. No plausible mechanism and ineffective in animal models.Targets the HIV protease (aspartyl protease) - quite different from the CoV proteases: PLpro (serine protease) or Mpro(cysteine protease)
RemdesivirPlausible, in vitro activity & animal models. − Adverse effects in phase 1 clinical trials
included: constipation, heartburn, itching, dizziness, loss of appetite, nausea, vomiting
− LFT abnormalities (AST 70s to 290s; ALTs 60s to 250)
Available through compassionate use and (soon) clinical trial.
COVID-19 treatment options?
Zumla A, Chan JFW, Azhar EI, Hui DSC, Yuen KY. Coronaviruses-drug discovery and therapeutic options. Nat Rev Drug Discov 2016;15:327–47.
Corticosteroid use for SARS patients • Higher plasma RNA levels at weeks 2-3 into
illness (likely prolonged viremia) • Increased 30-day mortality
(adjusted OR 26, 95% CI 4.4-154.8).
Remdesivir
*not to scale**educated guesswork
Convalescent sera
Suspected efficacy?**
Harmless
Harmful*
Lopinavir
Steroids* *Not for treatment. Use may be required for related illness eg. Refractory shock, asthma, COPD, organ transplant.
Chloroquine
COVID-19 vaccine?
Bolles M, et al. A Double-Inactivated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Vaccine Provides Incomplete Protection in Mice and Induces Increased Eosinophilic Proinflammatory Pulmonary Response upon Challenge. J Virol 2011;85(23):12201–15.
Unvaccinated VRP-N vaccinated
Nucleocapsid specific responses (likely cell mediated)increase immunopathology
Vaccine-induced immunopathology after challenge
Mo
ck V
acci
ne
Kill
ed V
acci
ne
What happens next?
• Seasonal coronaviruses?
• Durable immunity?• Common coronaviruses (229E) show
declining immunity after 1 year
[1] Callow KA, Parry HF, Sergeant M, Tyrrell DAJ. The time course of the immune response to experimental coronavirus infection of man. Epidemiol Infect 1990;105:435–46.[2] Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein EM, Grad YH, Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period. MedRxiv 2020;preprint:1–30.
Fold change in neutralizing antibody titers
What happens next?
• Seasonal coronaviruses?
• Durable immunity?• Common coronaviruses (229E) show
declining immunity after 1 year
[1] Callow KA, Parry HF, Sergeant M, Tyrrell DAJ. The time course of the immune response to experimental coronavirus infection of man. Epidemiol Infect 1990;105:435–46.[2] Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein EM, Grad YH, Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period. MedRxiv 2020;preprint:1–30.
Fold change in neutralizing antibody titers
What happens next?
• Warm weather hypothesis?• cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments
facilitate survival of respiratory viral diseases
[1] Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, Miralles-wilhelm F, Amoroso A. Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19. SSRN n.d.;preprint:6–7.
Circled cities with significant community transmission as of 6-Mar
What happens next?
• Warm weather hypothesis?• cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments
facilitate survival of respiratory viral diseases
[1] Luo W, Majumder MS, Liu D, Poirier C, Mandl KD, Lipsitch M, et al. The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak 2020:1–7.
Seasonal variations in absolute humidity may be insufficient to
prevent widespread transmission
What happens next?
• Warm weather hypothesis?• cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments
facilitate survival of respiratory viral diseases
[1] Luo W, Majumder MS, Liu D, Poirier C, Mandl KD, Lipsitch M, et al. The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak 2020:1–7.
Seasonal variations in absolute humidity may be insufficient to
prevent widespread transmission
What happens next?
• Warm weather hypothesis?• cold and dry (low absolute humidity)
environments facilitate survival of respiratory viral diseases
• Seasonal variations in absolute humidity may be insufficient to prevent widespread transmission
• Duration of immunity• Short term (40 weeks) annual
• longer biennial
Short term immunity (40 weeks)
Longer immunity (104 weeks)
Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein EM, Grad YH, Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period. MedRxiv 2020;preprint:1–30.
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Don’t be a “Patient A”Patient A, stayed at Hotel M:
Feb 15, symptoms began in Guandong, China
Feb 21, traveled to HK to visit family, stayed at Hotel M (9th Floor)
Feb 22, admitted to hospital 2
Feb 23, patient A died
MMWR 2003
Patient A directly resulted in 12 infections at Hotel M, 4 HCW infections & 2 Family member infections
Indirectly associated with 268 cases
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Don’t be a superspreader
Defined as spread to ≥ 8 other patients
Superspreadermean age 56
75% mortality
No. close contacts 36
AR close contacts 43%
Non-superspreadermean age 44
16% mortality
No. close contacts 0.37
AR close contact 18.5%
EID 2004
Index patient lead to 4 generations of spread including 76 case-patients
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Importance of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
CDC Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance Feb 2007
NPIs (Community Mitigation):• Isolation (of known cases)• Quarantine (potential contacts)• Social Distancing
o Closure of schools, businesseso Travel restrictionso Cancellation of mass gatherings
• Infection Control
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Recent Modeling of the Potential Impact of NPIs
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, 16 Mar 2020DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482
Necessary to layer multiple interventions
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Potentially Very Protracted Situation
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, 16 Mar 2020DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Local Projection, using a model
Assume:Population of Maryland 6.043M
N=60 current infections6 days for doubling of infections5% hospitalization rate2% ICU rate1% ventilation rate
Hospital length of stay 10 daysICU length of stay 7 daysVent length of 5 days
Penn Medicine, Predictive Healthcare team toolhttp://penn-chime.phl.io/
Confidential. ©2020 University of Maryland School of Medicine.
Tips for Staying Safe During COVID-19 (or the next emerging infection)
Personal Hygiene & Practices
Handwashing/Hand sanitizer
Cough/Sneeze etiquette
Stay home when sick
Avoid sick contacts
Seek medical assistance
Public Health Authorities
Isolation/Quarantine
Control mass gatherings/travel
Hospitalize– Contact/Droplet Precautions– PPE– ICU, mech vent support
Clear & Fast Communication– Prevent public panic
Vaccines
Therapeutics
Diagnostics
Thank You
Institue of Human Virology & Center for Vaccine Development and Global HealthUniversity of Maryland School of Medicine
53
Funding: T32AI007524
COVID-19 treatment options?
• Host targeted therapeutics• Tocilizumab – calm cytokine storm
• Tmprss2 – co-receptor SARS-CoV-2 Camostat mesylate
• ACEi ? Assoc with hypertension?