the world is 3-d
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Post-Modern Asset Allocation in the New Order of the World (NOW)!TRANSCRIPT
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NOT TO BE USED WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.
NOT TO BE USED WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC.
WORLD VIEWS OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
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The World is Flat
Prudent Man Rule
The World is Round
MPT and 60/40 Allocation
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MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY
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Traditional60/40 Allocation
A popular 1986 study found that the policy mix or asset allocation explained 93.6% of the portfolio variation. Most advisors built their advisor practice around the study.
MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory) was developed in the 1950’s. The emphasis is on diversification, combining different non-correlating asset classes and assets are mixed for the best risk and return trade-off.
MPT - Harry Markowitz won a Nobel Prize for its acceptanceAsset Allocation - Brinson, Singer Bebower Study 1986
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PROBLEM 1: RECENT INVESTOR EXPERIENCE
-50% -56%
+100%
+80%
Secular Bear Market Example 1999 - Present
A static 60% Asset Allocation to Stocks is Hard to Maintain and has NOT Provided Success to Investors
Why have the Same allocation to Stocks when the PE ratio is 20X versus 12X?
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InternetBubble
Cumulative returns of Russell 1000 from January 1, 1995
Growth Stocks
THE PAST HAS NOT FAVORED LONG ONLY, INDEX BASED INVESTING
And Bust
PROBLEM 1: RECENT INVESTOR EXPERIENCE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Loss AversionKeeps People InvestedFor Their Long Term Goals
Loss Gain
Pleasure
Pain
SmallPleasure
BigPain
People React Emotionally to Losses Twice as Much as they do to Gains
PROBLEM 2: HUMAN BEHAVIORWe are wired to think differently about gains and losses
Source: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, 1992 – Nobel Prize Awarded in 2002
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11.9%
3.0%3.9%
9.7%
1.8%
Barclays U.S. AggregateBond Index
Averagebond-fundinvestor
Investors have under-performed benchmarksIndex returns are not investor returns as timing and emotion play a large part
Averagestock-fundinvestor
InflationS&P 500
Source: DALBAR
Annualized Returns1986–2005
PROBLEM 2: HUMAN BEHAVIOR
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0.50
0.92
0.83
Correlation to S&P 500High correlation 1.0
GSCI Commodity Index
Source: International Traders Research Data thru 2009
3 Year Correlation
0.09
0.53
0.72
20 Year Correlation
PROBLEM 3: INVESTMENTS ARE BECOMING MORE CONNECTEDA Better Balance is Needed
EAFE – International Stocks
Real Estate Investment Trusts
No correlation 0.0
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Most of the portfolio movement is not caused by asset allocation but by the market movement itself. In the Ibbotson analysis, upwards of three quarters (75%) of a fund’s variation is caused by market movements.
If we know now that both the friend and enemy to investing is market movements, then that is where we should be focusing our efforts and energy.
Solution – Become More Flexible with Asset Allocation.Hire managers that demonstrate ability to move
between sectors within their discipline.
"The time has come for folklore to be replaced with reality“ Roger G. Ibbotson
Source of Study: The Importance of Asset Allocation, Roger G. Ibbotson, Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 66, Number 2
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NOT TO BE USED WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC.Source: Yale Endowment, 2007
Where can I find non-correlating investments?
MODERN ASSET ALLOCATION So what is an investor to do?
Institutional Investors have fared MUCH better during the recent Bear Market
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The World is Not Flat
It is Not Round
The post-modern asset allocation is one third each:one third long-only stock, one third long-only bond and one third flexible
(absolute return, long-short, commodity and alternatives)
Source: John Mauldin
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ASSET ALLOCATION IN THE NEW ORDER OF THE WORLD American Independence Product Offerings
One Third: Long-Short, Flexible, Non-Traditional Strategies
One Third:Long-Only Equity
One Third:Long-Only Fixed Income
American IndependenceTotal ReturnFixed Income
American IndependenceLarge – Cap Value
Large – Cap GrowthTarget Date “Nest Egg”
American IndependenceBull/Bear Fixed Income, Fusion Fund, TIPS Fund
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HOW CAN WE HELP YOU AND YOUR PRACTICE?
Experienced Investment Teams and Firm Management Active Management Return Oriented in both Fixed Income and Equity Consistent Alpha Production in Key Asset Classes Transparent, High Quality and Liquid Portfolios Traditional Core and Non-traditional programs
What are the Largest Questions in Investment Management Today?
Where are Interest Rates Going? Inflation / DeflationHow Do I Analyze and Value Financial Stocks?
American Independence has solutions to these questions!
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AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE
• Assets under management are approximately $1 billion
• American Independence Fund family is currently comprised of 15 funds featuring the Stock Fund:
Morningstar’s July 11, 2010, “Large Cap Funds on Winning Streaks”, lists the Stock Fund as one of 9 funds that have beaten the S&P 500 Index in successive years since 2005.
First in its Morningstar category for 3 year performance (1241 managers), second for 5 year (1153 managers) and first for ten year (839 managers) as of July, 2010
• Nest-Egg Target Date Funds and Traditional Core Disciplines
• Alternative Fixed Income and Equity Strategies
• AIFS has a strong SMA business featuring the Total Return Bond, Absolute Return Bull/Bear tactical fixed income strategies, Value and Growth portfolios.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST IN AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE
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Contact:
American Independence Financial Services
335 Madison Avenue, MezzanineNew York, NY 10017Direct: 646.747-3477
Toll-Free: 800.985.8984
www.americanifs.com
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