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© OECD/IEA 2013
The World Energy Outlook 2013 and Power sector modellingin the World Energy Model
Marco BaroniDirectorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA
Seoul, 14 November 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
The world energy scene today
Some long‐held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters… … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long‐term solutions to global challenges remain scarce Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise Fossil‐fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012 1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
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The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8%5%
OECD
Non‐OECDAsia
MiddleEast
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth2012‐2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 SoutheastAsia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240UnitedStates 440
Japan1 710
Europe1 370
Eurasia
1 050MiddleEast
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A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Mtoe
1987‐2011
2011‐2035
the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
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The global energy system, 2011 (Mtoe)
A complex energy world requires a well integrated model to capture all the interactions among markets, sectors, fuels and countries
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World primary energy demand and related CO2 emissions by scenario
In the New Policies Scenario, global primary energy demand increases by one‐third and CO2 emissions by one‐fifth between 2011 and 2035
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Mtoe
20
40
60
80 Gt
CO2 emissions (right axis):
Primary energy demand:
New Policies ScenarioCurrent Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies ScenarioCurrent Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
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World Energy Model (WEM)
Partial equilibrium model that allows scenario analysis Detailed sectoral and regional energy demand balances Regional supply of all fuels and trade matrixes CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Investment needs in the supply and end‐use technologies
Time horizon to 2035, with annual data complete update every year (e.g. in WEO 2013 the last complete data set was 2011, but many data
available for 2012 are integrated)
Regional resolution: 25 regional models of which 12 country models, including US, China, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil…
Three main modules Final Energy Consumption – Industry, Transport, Residential, Services, Agriculture,
Non‐Energy Use Energy Transformation – Power Generation, Heat Production, Refinery/Petrochemicals, Other
Transformation Supply and Trade – Coal, Oil, Gas and Biomass
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weomodel/
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Power generation sub‐modules
Renewables
Distributed Generation
Electricity from CHP
Desalination
Nuclear
CCS
Main driver(s)
Support, learning, potentials
Economics
Political support, economics
CO2 price, support, learning
TFC fossil fuel demand and prices
Heat demand
Water demand
Heat from CHP
Heat Plants
Heat Production
Electricity generation
Thermal plants
Transmission & Distribution
Wholesale & End‐user prices
Power demand, integration of renewables
Market structure, power mix, fuel and CO2 prices, investment
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Generation by plant
The module determines which plants are added and how they operate
Key Results
Effective Capacity Factors
Total installed capacity by plant
CO2 by plant type
Refurbishments
Plant Investment needs
Retrofits
Early retirements
T&D Investment needs
Renewables support
End‐user prices
Additions of new plants
Investment assumptions
Fuel and CO2 prices
Efficiencies
Max Capacity Factors
Historical capacity by plant
Retirements of existing plants
Wholesale price
Fuel consumption by plant
Load curve
Electricity demand
Merit Order Dispatch
© OECD/IEA 2013
Generation by plant
The module determines which plants are added and how they operate
Key Results
Investment assumptions
Fuel and CO2 prices
Efficiencies
Effective Capacity Factors
Total installed capacity by plant
CO2 by plant type
Refurbishments
Max Capacity Factors
Plant Investment needs
Retrofits
Early retirements
Historical capacity by plant
T&D Investment needs
Renewables support
End‐user prices
Retirements of existing plants
Load curve
Wholesale price
Fuel consumption by plant
Electricity demand
Merit Order Dispatch
Additions of new plants
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Capacity additions mechanism
Installed capacity is greater than peak demand to allow system to cope with maintenance and unexpected outages⇒ Capacity Margin
Plants are added each year based on demand growth, maintaining the capacity margin, replacement of retiring plants
Annual data is not enough Need for greater granularity in the year Split the load duration curve (hourly demand ordered from biggest to smallest) in 4 blocks
• Peak load• Mid load 1 and 2• Base load
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
136
673
110
9614
6118
2621
9125
5629
2132
8636
5140
1643
8147
4651
1154
7658
4162
0665
7169
3673
0176
6680
3183
96
GW
‐
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GW
total capacity
peak power demand
capacity margin
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• Plants are added on a least‐cost basis, with a portfolio approach• Competition depends on several factors (fuel prices, CO2 prices,
efficiency, investment cost, construction time, WACC, economic lifetime) and is very much time‐dependent
Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC)(also referred to as ‘Levelised Cost of Electricity’)
. / ∑
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GasCCGT
Coal Ultra-supercritical
Coal Oxyfuelwith CCS
Nuclear Wind onshore
Do
llars
(200
9) p
er M
Wh
Long-run marginal cost of generation in United States in 2020
CO2 price
Fuel
Operation & maintenanceCapital
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GasCCGT
Coal Ultra-supercritical
Coal Oxyfuelwith CCS
Nuclear Wind onshore
Do
llars
(200
9) p
er M
Wh
Long-run marginal cost of generation in European Union in 2020
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Additions of new plants
Generation by plant
Key Results
Investment assumptions
Fuel and CO2 prices
Efficiencies
Effective Capacity Factors
Total installed capacity by plant
CO2 by plant type
Refurbishments
Max Capacity Factors
Plant Investment needs
Retrofits
Early retirements
Historical capacity by plant
T&D Investment needs
Renewables support
End‐user prices
Retirements of existing plants
Load curve
Wholesale price
Fuel consumption by plant
Electricity demand
Merit Order Dispatch
How much each plant generates in a year is determined by the merit order
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How much each plant generates in a year is determined by the merit order
Fuel cost, efficiency, and CO2 prices determine a plant’s position in the merit order
0
50
100
150
200
MWh
S/MWh
CHPMinimumRenewables
NuclearCHP
Lignite and steam coal
GasCCGT
GasGT
OilSteamandGT
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Electricity generation in non‐OECD countries has only begun to rise
Electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario
Non‐OECD countries make up an ever‐increasing share of global generation, with coal steadily rising and more than outweighing the decrease in the OECD
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1990 2035
TWh
OECD
2011 1990 2035
Non‐OECD
2011
Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil
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‐ 600 ‐ 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 1 800
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
Middle East
GW
Capacity to change?
China & India together build almost 40% of the world’s new capacity; one‐third of global additions come from wind&solar, with profound implications in some markets
Capacity additions and retirements by selected region, 2013‐2035
Retirements
Capacity additions
wind and solar PVOf which:
wind and solar PVOf which:
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300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800
2 100TWh
India
LatinAmerica
Africa
ASEAN
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
China
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011‐2035
EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan
Europe, Japan and United States
China India, Latin America, ASEAN and Africa
Hydro
Otherrenewables
Wind
Solar PV
The expansion of non‐hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costsadditions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
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3×
4×
5×
2003
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persistelectricity price differentials also persist
20132035
Reductionfrom 2013
Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
United States
2×
Japan EuropeanUnion
China
ElectricityNatural gas
2003
Japan EuropeanUnion
China
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Electricity prices are set to increase in most regions
Average residential electricity prices (excluding taxes) by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario
Electricity bills increase along with rising electricity prices and demand per capita in most regions, though economic growth outpaces these trends
40
80
120
160
200
240
2802012
2020
2030
2035
Dollars per M
Wh (201
2)
CO2 priceFuelO&MInvestment costsand net revenues
United States European Union Japan China
Wholesale pricecomponent:
RenewablessubsidyNetwork, retailand other
2012
2020
2030
2035
2012
2020
2030
2035
2012
2020
2030
2035
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Policy implications
Impact of policies under consideration on global energy trends
Role of emerging economies on global energy demand and supply
Implications of technological developments of carbon‐free technologies
Exploitation of the economic energy efficiency potential, its costs and benefits
Environmental impact of energy use and the effect of policies to limit it
Competitiveness within the energy sector and among countries