THE WORLD BANK: REGIME-TYPE AND EMERGENCY

AID DISBURSEMENT

By: Ashwin Puri and Zackary Abu-Akeel

PREMISE

•Does the regime-type of a country effect foreign aid disbursement by The World Bank in emergency crises?

X AND Y

X: Regime-Type of Country

Y: Frequency of Foreign Aid

During Emergency

Crises

HYPOTHESIS

• If a country is a democracy (regime-type), then in emergency crises they will receive foreign aid by The World Bank more frequently than an Autocracy.

LITERATURE REVIEW

• Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith: Leader Survival and Natural Disasters

• Disasters have a minimal effect on the stability of democracies

• Large effect on the stability of autocracies

• How does foreign aid factor in?

REGIME-TYPE DATA• Obtained from Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio

Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, used in Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990

• Regime-Type is measured by Contestation in Democratic Elections:

• Ex-ante Uncertainty: Probability that one member of incumbent party will lose election

• Ex-post Irreversibility: Assurance that winner will assume office

• Repeatability: Continued elections must occur; winner must not make future elections impossible

EMERGENCY CRISES DATA• Obtained from EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database

• Consists of all determined disasters from 1900-2014

• A “Disaster” is determined by one or more of the following:• Ten (10) or more people reported killed.• Hundred (100) or more people reported affected.• Declaration of a state of emergency.• Call for international assistance.

• Merged with The World Bank’s data on emergency aid disbursement.

MERGED DATA

CORRELATION

• Accounting for our new variable, the amount of crises The World Bank has responded to per country, over the total amount of crises in a country per year over time.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

•A regime-type of democracy increases the likelihood of aid from The World Bank in emergency-crises situations.

•Further controls to account for

QUESTIONS?