the world bank global monthly
TRANSCRIPT
Ov
erv
iew
ECB’s QE: large footprint on bond and currency markets. On March 9, the European
Central Bank (ECB) began its quantitative easing (QE) program of euro-denominated public sec-
tor bond purchases, while continuing asset-backed securities and covered bond purchases initiat-
ed last year. The ECB’s combined €60 billion of monthly asset purchases will continue until at
least September 2016, extending beyond that date if a sustained lift in inflation has not been ob-
served in the meantime.
Taking into account anticipation effects, the ECB’s QE program has had significant repercus-
sions on global financial markets, bringing down yields on a range of domestic assets and gener-
ating large capital outflows as investors search for higher returns abroad. The euro depreciated in
March to a 12-year low against the U.S. dollar, while yields on 10-year German government
bonds have fallen below rates on Japanese government debt of equivalent maturity for the first
time in recorded history. Bond yields in “periphery” countries have also fallen to record lows,
despite ongoing concerns surrounding Greece’s financial troubles. The search for higher yields
has led to a significant acceleration of net portfolio outflows from the Euro Area, mainly driven
by purchases of long-term debt securities in the United States (Figure 1). This reallocation is
providing ongoing support to the U.S. dollar and contributed to maintaining long-term U.S.
Treasury yields at relatively low levels.
Fed policy: gradual tightening ahead. The unemployment rate in the United States declined
further to 5.5 percent in February 2015—below levels associated with the start of previous tight-
ening cycles (5.6 percent in 2004 and 6.6 percent in 1994), and within the range of estimates of
structural unemployment according to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC)
members. Falling oil prices and a strengthening U.S. dollar pushed headline inflation below zero
since the start of the year, but core inflation is relatively stable and should gradually increase to-
wards the Fed’s 2 percent target during 2016, in line with prospects of faster wage growth.
The U.S. Federal Reserve adjusted its policy guidance on March 18, dropping its pledge to be
“patient”, and hence opening the possibility of a liftoff in policy rates in either June or Septem-
ber this year. However, the FOMC also signaled that it would wait until it was confident that in-
flation was trending towards its 2 percent target, and revised down its forecasts for policy interest
rate levels over the next three years. This points to a more gradual normalization of policy than
initially predicted by Fed policy makers. Hence the gap in policy rate expectations between mar-
kets and the FOMC narrowed for 2015 and 2016, although remaining significant in 2017 (Figure
2). The risk of abrupt adjustments in bond yields and exchange rates as the liftoff date approach-
MARCH 2015
es has diminished but did not disappear.
Emerging market currencies: under pressure. Divergences in monetary policies between the ma-
jor reserve currencies, together with sharply lower oil prices, have induced greater volatility and inten-
sified pressures on emerging market currencies. Depreciation against the U.S. dollar since mid-2014
has been significantly more pronounced and broad-based than after the “taper tantrum” episode in
May/June 2013 (Figure 3). In trade-weighted terms, however, most emerging market currencies have
been more stable, with the exception of some oil producers (Russia, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and Ni-
geria). Among oil-exporting countries, currency movements since mid-2014 have been consistent
with the deterioration in their terms of trade stemming from the oil price decline.
Capital flows: appetite for developing country bonds still sustained. Negative repercussions of
exchange rate volatility on the performance of emerging market bond and equity markets have been
limited so far, while portfolio outflows have been generally contained and international bond issuance
still robust up to February (Figure 4). These trends reflect continued demand for high-yield debt, a
number of large public offerings, and issuer interest in taking advantage of low bond yields. On the
back of the ECB’s QE program, euro-denominated bond issuances are beginning to pick up as issuers
outside the Euro Area seek to take advantage of declining borrowing costs. For example, Chinese
companies have already sold $2.9 billion of euro-denominated debt in 2015, compared with the $3.3
billion raised for the whole of 2014.
Commodity markets: further price declines in non-oil commodities. Prices of commodities have
remained weak on the back of continuing U.S. dollar appreciation, generally ample supply and lack-
luster demand. Although the U.S. oil rig count continued to decline rapidly in February / March for a
cumulative drop of 46 percent since October 2014, U.S. crude production has not yet decreased
(Figure 5) and physical stocks have reached a six-year high (15 percent higher than March 2014). As a
result of this ample supply, the West Texas Intermediate oil price, the mid-continent U.S. oil price
benchmark, has fallen to a six-year low. Brent, the world price benchmark, declined as well. For now,
these oil price declines are broadly in line with the World Bank’s January forecasts. Most agricultural
commodity markets appear to be well supplied as well, putting downward pressure on prices. Metal
prices lost further ground in early March and are down almost 20 percent since their 2014 highs.
High-income country growth: divergence narrowing. Following an exceptionally strong third
quarter, growth in the United States decelerated to 2.2 percent (q/q saar) in Q4 2014. A strong pickup
in consumption was bolstered by low oil prices and strong labor market conditions, whereas U.S. dol-
lar appreciation dampened exports. Aggregate investment growth remained resilient, but is expected to
slow as the sharp decline in capital expenditures in the shale oil industry is reflected in first quarter
data. Supported by low oil prices and a weak yen, a recovery in both consumption and exports
strengthened growth in Japan to 1.6 percent in Q4 (-0.1 percent for 2014 as a whole), after two quar-
ters of contraction following the consumption tax hike last April. Growth in the Euro Area exceeded
expectations, rising to 1.3 percent in Q4 2014 (0.9 percent for 2014 as a whole), driven by consump-
tion and net exports and a substantial strengthening of activity in Germany. Further improvements are
expected in the first half of 2015 as a weakening euro, easy financing conditions and low oil prices
buoy manufacturing exports and household purchasing power. These positive developments are also
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
reflected in an upward revision in the ECB’s growth forecast to 1.5 percent for 2015 (from 1 percent in
December), and to 1.9 percent for 2016. Lower oil prices have added to disinflationary pressures. The
ECB revised downwards its inflation forecast to 0 from 0.7 percent in 2015. Spillovers from financial
stress in Greece to other countries in the Euro Area periphery have thus far been limited, partly as a
result of ECB sovereign bond purchases. With its bond repayment to the IMF mid-March, Greece has
severely depleted its financial resources, raising concerns about its ability to meet upcoming payment
obligations.
Developing country growth in 2014: broadly in line with forecasts. Data for 2014 growth in sev-
eral large developing countries continue to be released. Thus far, they indicate that, overall, growth in
2014 was broadly in line with January 2015 Global Economic Prospects forecasts, although marginally
higher in some countries in Eastern Europe (Romania, Hungary, Serbia), South Asia (India, Sri
Lanka), and East Asia (Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand).
Developing country activity in 2015: soft. High-frequency indicators suggest weakening activity in
many developing countries in early 2015. Growth momentum in China’s industrial production slowed
in January/February, falling below expectations, which was only partially offset by sustained growth
in retail sales (Figure 6). This has coincided with a decision by the authorities to lower China’s growth
target to "around 7 per cent" for 2015 (compared with 7.4 percent in 2014, its lowest since 1990). In
Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, sentiment is weakening while data remains mixed in East Asia.
In contrast, industrial production rebounded strongly in India in December/January, following several
months of weakness, but capacity utilization remains at its lowest in seven years.
Developing country monetary policy: diverging. With inflation declining and current account
balances improving, a number of central banks in oil-importing countries, including China, India and
Indonesia, have been able to cut policy rates in advance of the upcoming U.S. tightening cycle. The
Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rates in an unscheduled meeting in March, while the government
agreed in February on a monetary policy framework to target inflation at 4 percent within a band of ±
2 percent. In China, the central bank is balancing the need to prevent a sharper slowdown in domestic
activity and limit the accumulation of financial risks. Monetary authorities lowered benchmark deposit
and lending rates in February. Bank credit growth remains strong but non-bank lending has decelerat-
ed in line with tighter trust funds and interbank asset regulations. Deflationary pressures in Eastern Eu-
ropean countries are to some degree hindering central banks’ efforts to maintain sufficiently low real
interest rates. In Central Asia, policymaking has been further complicated by spillovers from the
Ukraine crisis, alongside currency depreciation and monetary policy tightening in Russia. Several cen-
tral banks in Europe and Central Asia have been compelled to raise interest rates, some to support cur-
rencies and preserve financial stability (Belarus, Armenia and Georgia). Rising inflation and sus-
tained currency pressures, meanwhile, have pushed key commodity exporters’ central banks to either
tighten or maintain relatively high interest rate levels despite weakening domestic demand (Brazil, Co-
lombia).
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Figure 1. Net portfolio outflows from Euro
Area Figure 2. Market vs FOMC policy rate
expectations
Source: European Central Bank. Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, US Fed FOMC.
Figure 3. Major emerging market currencies Figure 4. Gross Capital Flows to Developing
Countries
Source: World Bank, JPMorgan.
Note: “Post-Taper period”: May 2013 to June 2014. Data updated till March 17th, 2015.
Source: World Bank, Dealogic
Figure 5. U.S. oil production and rig count Figure 6. China retail sales and industrial
production
Source: EIA and Baker Hughes.
Note: Crude oil production only.
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Note: Retail sales in nominal values.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Mar-
14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Long term debt
Billions of Euro, 6-month moving average
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2015 2016 2017 Longer Run
Marketexpectations
FOMC-Max
FOMC-Median
FOMC-Low
Percent
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Since Mid-2014 (US$)
Since Mid-2014 (Trade weighted)
Post-Taper period (Trade weighted)
Post-Taper period (US$)
Percentage change
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15
Bank lending Bond EquityBillions of US$
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Oil production (LHS)
Rig Count (RHS)
CountMillion barrels per day
5
7
9
11
13
15
201301 201307 201401 201407 201501
Industrial Production Retail Sales
Percent, y-o-y
Latest
consensus
Ec
on
om
ic C
ale
nd
ar
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Major Data Releases
18 Feb, 2015- 17 Mar 2015 Upcoming releases: 18 Mar, 2015- 17 Apr 2015
Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous
South Africa 2/18/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JAN 4.4% 4.6% 5.3% New Zealand 3/18/2015 GDP(Y/Y) Q4 1.00%
Portugal 2/18/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN -4.0% - -3.4% South Africa 3/19/2015 Wholesale Sales (Y/Y) JAN -4.30%
France 2/19/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JAN -0.4% -0.3% 0.1% Malaysia 3/20/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB 1.00%
Germany 2/20/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN -2.2% -2.0% -1.7% Germany 3/20/2015 PPI (Y/Y) FEB -2.20%
Mexico 2/20/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% Canada 3/20/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JAN 4.00%
Czech Republic 2/23/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN -3.5% -3.2% -3.7% Singapore 3/23/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB -0.40%
Hong Kong 2/23/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JAN 4.1% - 4.9% Finland 3/24/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 8.90%
Brazil 2/24/2015 Consumer Confidence Index FEB 85.4 88 89.8 Poland 3/24/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 12.00%
Germany 2/24/2015 Unemployment Rate JAN 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% UK 3/24/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB 0.30%
Poland 2/24/2015 Unemployment Rate JAN 12.0% 11.9% 11.5% US 3/24/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB -0.10%
Finland 2/24/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN -2.7% - -1.8% South Korea 3/25/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 3.20%
Singapore 2/26/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 0.9% -6.0% -1.9% France 3/26/2015 GDP(Y/Y) Q4 0.40%
South Africa 2/26/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN 3.5% - 5.8% South Africa 3/26/2015 PPI (Y/Y) FEB -1.10%
Cyprus 2/27/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) DEC 1.2% - -3.7% UK 3/26/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) FEB 5.40%
Poland 2/27/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 3.2% 3.0% 3.4% US 3/27/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 2.70%
Greece 2/27/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% Greece 3/30/2015 PPI (Y/Y) FEB -9.60%
Mexico 2/27/2015 Unemployment Rate JAN 4.4% 4.5% 4.38% Turkey 3/31/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 1.80%
South Korea 3/1/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 1.8% 1.5% 0.4% Germany 3/31/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 4.70%
China 3/2/2015 PMI Manufacturing FEB 50.7 49.9 50.1 UK 3/31/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 2.60%
Denmark 3/2/2015 Unemployment Rate JAN 4.9% - 5.0% Brazil 4/1/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) FEB -5.20%
Eurozone 3/3/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JAN -3.4% -2.9% -2.7% Thailand 4/1/2015 CPI (Y/Y) MAR -0.50%
Canada 3/3/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% Romania 4/3/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) FEB 6.73%
Australia 3/3/2015 Retail Sales (M/M) JAN 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% United States 4/3/2015 Unemployment Rate MAR 5.50%
Brazil 3/4/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN -5.2% -0.8% -2.7% Brazil 4/6/2015 PMI Composite MAR 51.3
Philippines 3/4/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% Philippines 4/6/2015 Core CPI (Y/Y) MAR 2.50%
Estonia 3/5/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 1.8% - 7.7% Romania 4/7/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 3.20%
United States 3/5/2015 Factory Orders (M/M) JAN -0.2% 0.1% -3.5% Australia 4/7/2015 Unemployment Rate MAR 6.30%
Germany 3/6/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% Germany 4/9/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) FEB 0.90%
Norway 3/6/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN -0.4% - 3.5% Czech Republic 4/9/2015 Unemployment Rate MAR 7.50%
Brazil 3/6/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB 7.7% 7.5% 7.1% Switzerland 4/10/2015 Unemployment Rate MAR 3.20%
United States 3/6/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% Japan 4/13/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) FEB -2.80%
Japan 3/9/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q4 1.5% -0.4% 2.2% Portugal 4/13/2015 CPI (Y/Y) MAR -0.20%
Switzerland 3/10/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 3.2% - 3.2% Eurozone 4/14/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) FEB 1.20%
France 3/10/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 0.6% 0.0% -0.4% United States 4/14/2015 PPI (Y/Y) MAR -0.60%
Romania 3/10/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB 0.4% 0.6% -0.7% South Korea 4/14/2015 Unemployment Rate MAR 3.90%
Greece 3/10/2015 CPI (Y/Y) FEB -2.2% -1.9% -2.8% China 4/14/2015 GDP(Y/Y) Q1 7.30%
China 3/11/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 6.8% 7.9% 7.9% Singapore 4/15/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) FEB -5.00%
Czech Republic 3/13/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JAN 6.6% 3.2% 4.2% Germany 4/15/2015 CPI (Y/Y) MAR 0.10%
Brazil 3/13/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JAN 0.6% -1.0% 0.3% Turkey 4/15/2015 Unemployment Rate JAN 10.40%
Mexico 3/13/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) JAN 0.8% 2.5% 2% United States 4/16/2015 Housing Starts (M-o-M) MAR 897K
Eurozone 3/17/2015 Unemployment Rate Q4 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% Czech Republic 4/17/2015 PPI (Y/Y) MAR -3.60%
Indonesia 3/17/2015 Interest Rate Decision FEB 7.5% 7.4% 8% Eurozone 4/17/2015 CPI (Y/Y) MAR -0.30%
Hong Kong 3/17/2015 Unemployment Rate FEB 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Switzerland 4/17/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAR -0.30%
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Weigh ts Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
2000 1999-09 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
World 1 0 0 .0 2 .1 4 .7 3 .1 2 .5 3 .4 3 .8 1 .8 2 .3 4 .0 0 .0 0 .6 -0 .4 1 .3 -0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 -0 .2
High - in come cou n tries 7 7 .2 0 .5 2 .9 1 .1 0 .6 2 .2 3 .2 -0 .4 0 .2 3 .4 -0 .3 0 .6 -0 .8 0 .9 0 .1 0 .3 0 .6 0 .1
Industrial countries 72.7 0.3 2.2 0.7 0.7 2.3 3.8 -0.7 -0.1 3.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2
United States 25.1 0.2 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.9 5.3 4.1 4.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 -0.3
Japan 17.3 -0.8 -2.7 0.1 -0.6 1.8 10.7 -13.5 -7.6 7.4 -3.2 0.3 -1.9 2.8 0.5 -0.4 0.9 3.3
Euro Area 22.9 0.2 3.3 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 -1.6 1.6 -0.3 1.1 -1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0
United Kingdom 4.1 -1.0 -0.8 -2.7 -0.6 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Other high income 4.5 0.3 2.2 0.7 0.7 2.3 3.8 -0.7 -0.1 3.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2
Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.9 0.2 1.5 2.7 3.9 -5.8 -6.3 0.4 0.2 2.6 -1.3 -3.5 3.4 -1.8 2.4 -4.7
Taiwan (China) 1.1 3.7 4.5 -0.3 0.4 6.3 3.1 9.9 9.7 7.8 2.5 0.4 -0.7 2.6 0.1 -0.8 2.4 0.7
Dev elopin g cou n tries 2 2 .8 6 .5 7 .8 6 .3 5 .5 5 .1 4 .7 4 .9 5 .6 4 .9 0 .4 0 .5 0 .1 1 .7 -0 .5 0 .5 0 .6 -0 .6
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 8 .7 1 0 .5 1 1 .3 9 .0 8 .9 7 .5 4 .6 7 .7 6 .8 8 .6 0 .8 0 .3 0 .0 1 .9 0 .2 0 .2 1 .3 -0 .9
China 6.3 13.7 13.7 10.0 9.7 8.3 5.7 7.8 7.3 9.1 0.9 0.9 -0.7 1.8 0.6 0.3 1.3 -0.8
Indonesia 0.9 3.4 4.0 4.1 6.0 4.6 7.2 0.2 7.2 1.7 0.8 -4.1 5.4 5.1 -4.7 -0.4 1.5 0.2
Thailand 0.6 8.6 -8.5 2.1 -3.1 -4.6 -6.9 -2.9 -1.4 2.7 -2.8 -0.1 4.4 -4.8 1.9 1.2 -0.5 0.7
Malaysia 0.5 4.9 2.4 4.2 3.4 5.1 0.6 17.6 -0.6 10.5 0.6 -3.8 2.1 -0.3 0.5 1.3 1.9 -1.0
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .2 . . 1 3 .0 8 .9 2 .2 3 .5 5 .8 1 .3 1 .5 -1 .6 -0 .1 1 .3 -2 .0 2 .1 -0 .9 0 .0 -0 .6 -0 .4
Russian Federation 1.0 5.5 5.0 3.3 0.5 1.5 -1.0 4.2 0.7 3.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.7 1.5 0.2 -1.2 1.9 -1.8
Turkey 0.5 .. 9.6 2.5 3.4 3.4 7.7 0.5 5.1 -2.7 0.4 1.8 -1.8 2.7 -2.0 -0.2 0.7 -1.4
Poland 0.6 6.3 7.0 1.5 2.4 3.2 1.7 -1.0 2.6 6.4 0.6 1.1 -1.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 2.0 0.4
Czech Republic 0.2 3.0 6.0 -0.8 0.1 4.8 4.9 2.2 -1.2 10.8 0.5 0.7 -3.6 5.0 -0.4 1.3 0.5 0.4
L atin America an d Caribbean 6 .2 1 .6 2 .5 -0 .1 0 .9 -1 .1 1 .3 -2 .9 -0 .6 -3 .2 -0 .7 0 .8 -0 .1 -0 .2 0 .3 -0 .8 -1 .2 0 .5
Brazil 1.8 - 0.5 -2.7 2.2 -3.1 -0.1 -7.7 -1.5 -6.7 -1.4 0.7 0.6 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -3.2 2.0
Mexico 1.7 1.1 3.4 2.7 -0.5 1.8 3.5 3.8 1.5 1.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Argentina 0.8 2.8 6.5 -1.2 -0.2 -2.5 0.0 0.8 -1.0 -5.3 2.1 -0.1 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.9 1.1
Colombia 0.3 1.9 4.9 -0.3 -1.3 0.5 -2.3 -1.4 -3.6 2.3 -3.0 4.4 -4.5 1.8 0.7 -2.8 6.7 -4.8
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 .9 1 .4 -8 .6 5 .8 -6 .9 0 .8 1 6 .2 1 .2 2 9 .9 -3 .6 1 .4 2 .3 6 .8 3 .6 -4 .3 -0 .3 -2 .5 . .
Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.0 12.4 5.7 -1.5 1.7 2.5 -3.7 -3.0 5.6 -0.9 1.2 -3.2 1.9 1.0 -0.5 1.8 ..
Egypt 0.4 .. -6.7 4.9 -7.7 9.0 52.8 32.4 11.7 -13.2 4.4 -0.8 14.7 -2.4 -3.9 0.6 -8.1 -1.9
Algeria .. 0.9 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.8 1.0 7.4 3.8 -7.7 0.9 1.8 1.7 9.4 -8.2 1.1 -1.5 ..
Sou th As ia 1 .6 7 .3 5 .5 1 .1 1 .7 2 .6 6 .8 2 .9 1 .9 -3 .3 -1 .6 1 .3 -0 .7 2 .4 -6 .7 7 .3 0 .1 1 .5
India 1.3 7.4 4.8 0.5 0.9 1.7 8.8 4.3 -2.8 -4.7 -1.7 1.3 -1.2 1.7 -6.6 7.7 -0.1 1.5
Pakistan 0.2 5.8 2.7 1.8 6.1 2.2 -8.1 2.6 6.1 12.8 -0.6 -1.5 4.2 2.9 -2.7 2.6 2.3 ..
Bangladesh 0.1 7.4 17.1 9.3 8.1 .. 1.9 .. .. .. 2.4 4.9 0.5 7.6 -11.6 9.9 .. ..
Sri Lanka 0.0 .. 8.1 -0.3 0.9 .. 1.8 .. .. .. 2.2 2.7 -0.3 4.5 -2.3 0.0 .. ..
Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 .2 0 .9 3 .5 3 .3 0 .9 0 .0 -2 .9 -2 .2 -4 .6 1 0 .2 1 .7 -3 .3 5 .9 2 .3 -0 .8 -0 .6 0 .7 -1 .5
South Africa 0.4 0.8 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.0 -2.6 -1.4 -6.5 10.7 1.6 -3.6 6.2 2.5 -0.7 -0.8 0.8 -1.5
Memo:
OECD 75.9 0.3 2.4 0.8 0.7 2.3 3.9 -0.5 0.0 3.1 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2
Developing excl. China 16.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.2 1.3 3.4 1.1 3.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 1.1 1.5 -2.0 0.9 -0.4 0.0
Developing oil exporters 2.9 - 1.5 3.0 0.5 1.7 3.8 1.1 7.1 1.7 0.1 -0.6 2.0 2.3 -1.9 -0.1 0.7 -0.5
Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 8.8 9.9 7.3 6.9 5.9 4.9 5.7 5.1 5.4 0.5 0.8 -0.3 1.6 -0.2 0.7 0.6 -0.5
Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month
a/)
a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often
manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.
2 0 1 4
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
1999-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Real GDP
High - in come cou n tries 2 .0 2 .9 1 .8 1 .3 1 .3 0 .6 0 .8 1 .1 2 .2 1 .9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Industrial countries 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.1 2.3 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
United States 2.1 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 -2.1 4.2 5.0 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.4 1.7 1.6 -0.1 5.1 -7.1 -2.6 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Euro Area 1.5 2.0 1.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
United Kingdom 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.4 2.6 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Other high income 4.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.1 2.3 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) .. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 0.0 5.9 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Singapore 5.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.1 2.6 4.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Taiwan (China) 3.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 3.9 4.4 4.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Real merch an dis e imports
High - in come cou n tries 3.7 11.8 4.4 0.9 1.1 3.5 5.3 -1.1 5.4 0.4 1.6 2.2 -4.1 4.7 -1.9 -1.7 4.5 -5.2
Industrial countries 3.4 10.8 4.1 0.4 0.6 4.1 6.1 -0.5 6.0 1.4 1.4 2.6 -4.8 5.4 -1.8 -1.8 4.8 -5.5
United States 3.0 15.0 4.1 2.9 0.7 4.5 -5.6 13.0 6.4 16.1 0.4 2.2 -2.2 5.4 0.0 -2.8 9.0 -6.4
Japan 2.3 10.6 4.3 4.2 0.2 1.4 25.3 -21.7 -8.7 7.8 4.1 -1.1 -6.7 6.7 0.4 -5.8 10.8 1.1
Euro Area .. 8.2 3.2 -2.2 0.6 3.2 9.0 0.0 7.8 -3.2 1.9 2.5 -5.4 6.4 -3.1 -0.6 1.5 -5.4
United Kingdom 3.2 10.3 5.2 1.1 -0.6 7.7 14.3 4.7 0.5 -13.2 -1.7 5.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.9 -3.6 4.1 -8.3
Other high income 3.4 10.8 4.1 0.4 0.6 4.1 6.1 -0.5 6.0 1.4 3.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 -2.0 -1.0 2.6 -3.2
Hong Kong (China) 3.0 17.5 3.7 0.7 2.5 2.0 -12.9 0.0 4.8 4.6 1.3 3.0 -5.0 2.9 2.4 -1.5 -1.4 3.2
Singapore 2.3 18.0 3.6 3.7 1.0 2.3 11.1 -9.6 -2.1 13.1 -2.3 3.3 -3.7 5.4 0.3 -8.1 19.6 -7.0
Taiwan (China) .. 29.2 -2.7 -2.0 4.9 5.9 10.9 -9.2 25.7 6.9 17.5 -2.8 6.9 -6.2 -0.9 9.0 -3.4 4.0
I mport Prices
High - in come cou n tries 3.1 5.4 12.8 -1.9 -0.8 -1.9 -1.4 2.2 -7.6 -19.9 -0.2 -0.3 -1.4 -2.0 -1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -3.3
Industrial countries 3.1 5.3 13.0 -2.5 -0.8 -2.0 -1.2 2.3 -8.6 -21.1 -0.2 -0.4 -1.5 -2.3 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -3.5
United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -1.1 -1.1 2.9 0.5 -3.4 -12.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.8 -3.3
Japan 4.7 14.2 18.2 -0.5 -6.3 -3.7 -8.5 -5.9 3.7 -26.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 -2.8 -0.9 -5.0 -5.3 -5.9
Euro Area .. 3.3 14.0 -5.0 1.1 -2.5 -2.7 -4.4 -14.0 -24.0 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 -3.2 -2.4 -2.1 -0.7 -3.1
United Kingdom 1.5 3.5 12.7 -1.3 -0.8 1.3 1.5 4.0 -5.1 -24.5 0.8 0.3 -2.4 -2.3 -2.6 -1.9 -2.3 -5.1
Other high income 3.1 5.3 13.0 -2.5 -0.8 -2.0 -1.2 2.3 -8.6 -21.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.8 -0.2 -1.1 -1.4 -2.2 -2.8
Hong Kong (China) 2.4 6.2 7.9 3.6 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.0 3.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 -1.3
Singapore 4.7 7.4 13.5 0.3 -2.9 -4.0 -6.8 4.8 -8.5 -30.7 -0.4 -0.1 -2.0 -2.1 -2.9 -3.4 -5.4 -8.1
Taiwan (China) .. 12.2 15.3 -1.9 -4.9 -4.1 -4.6 -1.1 -6.6 -24.5 -0.1 -0.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.8 -3.2 -4.1 -4.3
Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a
Euro Area 2.5 3.0 0.3 -2.9 0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.2 -1.3 -2.0 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 -5.2
United States -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.0 0.5 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.9
Japan -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 -20.1 -6.5 -10.2 -2.8 -4.2 -8.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.3 -3.0 -0.2 -6.2 -1.8 1.2
United Kingdom -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 -1.0 7.6 6.9 7.8 9.3 6.1 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.5 -2.9
Canada 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -6.4 -8.7 -6.8 -4.9 -5.0 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -5.0
Singapore -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 2.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.4 0.4 -1.5 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -1.5
Switzerland 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -1.8 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 3.9
Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted
annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)
a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in
2 0 1 4
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
1999-08 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Policy Rates
High - in come cou n tries
United States 3.46 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Japan 0.22 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.1
Euro Area 3.09 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.16 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
United Kingdom 5.02 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5
Ten year bon d
United States 4.68 3.20 2.77 1.78 2.33 2.53 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 2.59 2.52 2.43 2.51 2.32 2.30 2.19 1.94 1.956
Japan 1.50 1.18 1.12 0.85 0.71 0.56 0.63 0.60 0.54 0.45 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.55 0.50 0.47 0.38 0.27 0.367
Euro Area 4.29 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.24 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 1.35 1.20 1.02 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.44 0.351
United Kingdom 4.78 3.53 3.01 1.87 2.34 2.51 2.78 2.67 2.53 2.07 2.70 2.63 2.45 2.49 2.22 2.13 1.87 1.55 1.679
JPMorgan EMBI I n dex b
Dev elopin g cou n tries . . . . . . . . 6 3 7 6 6 5 6 3 3 6 7 0 6 8 4 6 7 3 6 8 2 6 8 8 6 8 5 6 8 1 6 7 8 6 7 8 6 6 2 6 6 0 6 6 8
Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
China .. .. .. .. 396 415 400 413 421 428 417 419 422 422 427 428 430 435 436.7
Indonesia .. .. .. .. 247 264 245 261 271 277 265 268 271 274 274 279 278 282 288
Phillippines .. .. .. .. 689 729 697 725 734 758 729 730 734 739 748 757 768 785 791.6
Malaysia .. .. .. .. 347 361 353 360 365 367 363 364 365 365 369 367 365 359 355.7
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Russian Federation .. .. .. .. 910 896 898 903 907 875 929 921 900 901 906 895 824 796 829.7
Turkey .. .. .. .. 618 650 598 648 668 685 659 666 667 670 673 688 694 707 705.7
Poland .. .. .. .. 533 558 541 554 563 573 560 560 563 565 571 573 575 583 586.1
Ukraine .. .. .. .. 571 567 562 585 603 521 615 629 606 573 568 547 448 391 341.2
L atin America an d Caribbean .. . . . . . . 5 8 0 6 0 3 5 7 0 6 1 5 6 2 8 6 0 0 6 2 6 6 3 5 6 3 0 6 1 9 6 1 0 6 0 5 5 8 6 5 8 2 5 9 2
Brazil .. .. .. .. 958 988 942 991 1011 1008 1001 1007 1012 1013 1012 1008 1004 1012 997.6
Mexico .. .. .. .. 564 598 567 597 613 616 605 610 616 613 617 616 613 621 625.2
Argentina .. .. .. .. 139 185 159 184 197 199 188 208 189 195 193 207 198 202 210.5
Peru .. .. .. 1025 1076 1016 1073 1099 1116 1084 1094 1100 1103 1110 1116 1121 1145 1160
Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . 4 2 0 4 5 5 4 3 7 4 5 3 4 6 2 4 6 6 4 5 9 4 5 9 4 6 2 4 6 6 4 6 5 4 6 8 4 6 5 4 6 5 4 6 6
Egypt .. .. .. .. 219 264 248 261 268 279 266 268 271 275 282 280 281 280 ..
Iraq .. .. .. .. 226 246 232 252 252 248 249 250 257 252 253 238 232 237 ..
Jordan .. .. .. .. 121 127 125 126 128 129 128 128 129 129 .. .. .. .. ..
Lebanon .. .. .. .. 399 432 417 429 439 444 436 439 442 442 445 446 448 448 ..
Sou th As ia d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Pakistan .. .. .. .. 214 245 235 245 249 253 250 248 249 248 256 254 255 256 ..
Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. 178 195 186 195 199 202 198 198 202 201 204 202 200 201 ..
Su b-Sah aran Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Africa .. .. .. .. 561 591 564 592 599 608 139 139 140 138 138 132 127 129 ..
Nigeria .. .. .. .. 130 135 130 135 139 136 139 139 140 138 138 132 127 129 ..
Ghana .. .. .. .. 173 179 169 177 185 186 182 184 189 190 188 179 173 183 ..
Gros s in flow s e
Dev elopin g cou n tries . . 4 4 7 4 0 3 4 5 8 5 5 8 5 5 5 1 4 1 .1 1 8 2 .7 1 5 8 .3 7 2 .9 6 9 .5 6 6 .0 1 9 .4 7 2 .8 3 6 .5 3 6 .5 . . . . . .
East Asia and Pacific .. 154 123 163 211 243 49.2 77.9 83.4 32.2 27.6 29.6 9.7 44.1 16.1 16.1 .. .. ..
Europe and Central Asia .. 44 58 66 82 68 14.4 22.9 14.2 16.2 9.6 4.3 2.9 7.0 8.1 8.1 .. .. ..
Latin America and Carribean .. 156 146 150 178 159 57.4 49.8 37.5 13.8 16.3 18.9 4.6 14.1 6.9 6.9 .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa .. 19 7 7 9 9 0.8 5.1 2.7 0.1 2.4 1.6 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 .. .. ..
South Asia .. 56 44 42 39 47 16.5 12.8 8.8 9.1 7.0 6.1 0.7 2.0 4.6 4.6 .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 25 30 39 31 2.8 15.0 11.8 1.5 7.4 5.7 1.6 4.5 0.8 0.8 .. .. ..
Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)
a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.
b/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.
d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.
e/In billions of US dollars.
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2014 2014 2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Energy 100.0 128.7 127.6 127.4 118.3 128.3 129.6 121.6 93.7 131.5 126.9 121.2 116.6 106.2 96.4 78.6 63.0 70.4
Coal, Australia 100.0 122.7 97.4 85.4 70.9 77.9 73.4 68.6 63.6 72.2 69.5 69.7 66.6 64.4 63.2 63.1 62.7 62.0
Crude o il, average 100.0 131.6 132.9 131.7 121.8 131.1 134.5 127.0 94.4 137.1 133.1 126.6 121.3 108.9 97.4 76.8 59.6 69.3
Natural gas , Europe 100.0 126.9 138.4 142.2 121.3 135.8 123.5 111.2 114.6 117.9 111.9 110.3 111.5 117.9 107.4 118.6 111.6 99.8
N o n-energy 100.0 119.8 109.5 101.7 97.0 99.1 99.3 96.8 92.7 98.3 98.3 97.7 94.3 93.3 93.5 91.3 88.4 87.0
A griculture 100.0 121.6 114.5 106.3 102.7 105.5 106.6 101.2 97.7 105.2 103.1 102.1 98.4 98.0 98.3 96.8 94.7 93.5
B everages 100.0 116.0 92.6 83.3 101.8 94.5 104.8 105.3 102.4 103.1 104.3 106.9 104.9 106.8 101.4 99.0 96.7 95.1
Cocoa 100.0 95.1 76.3 77.8 97.7 94.2 98.5 103.0 95.3 101.3 102.0 104.4 102.6 99.0 92.9 94.1 93.1 94.1
Coffee, arabica 100.0 138.3 95.2 71.2 102.4 88.5 108.1 105.5 107.4 101.0 100.5 108.7 107.4 115.0 106.9 100.4 97.0 91.3
Coffee, robusta 100.0 138.7 130.6 119.6 127.7 122.3 130.1 128.1 130.1 125.6 129.3 127.3 127.7 133.0 130.9 126.6 124.5 124.9
F o o d 100.0 122.5 124.5 115.6 107.4 111.8 111.5 104.5 101.7 109.8 106.5 105.7 101.3 100.7 103.0 101.5 98.9 96.6
F ats and o ils 100.0 120.5 126.1 115.9 109.0 120.1 116.1 102.3 97.5 114.0 106.9 103.3 96.9 96.0 99.6 96.8 94.0 91.7
Palm o il 100.0 124.9 110.9 95.1 91.2 101.2 98.5 85.7 79.4 95.1 93.4 85.0 78.7 80.1 81.1 76.9 76.4 76.4
Soybean meal 100.0 105.2 138.5 144.1 139.5 153.7 149.6 130.3 124.5 146.1 132.7 134.8 123.7 121.3 128.4 123.7 119.5 115.8
Soybeans 100.0 120.2 131.5 119.7 109.3 122.8 115.1 101.7 97.7 114.7 106.7 102.3 96.0 94.3 99.8 99.2 94.3 90.5
Grains 100.0 138.2 141.3 128.2 103.9 110.1 110.9 97.7 96.9 106.7 101.0 99.1 92.9 92.9 98.0 99.6 96.8 95.3
M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 103.7 112.9 115.1 93.6 93.3 108.9 98.3 94.9 87.7 87.7 96.1 96.1 94.0 93.4
Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 115.2 103.5 86.5 90.7 80.5 88.6 86.2 81.2 86.3 91.0 88.4 87.5 85.5 85.5 85.9 85.9
Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 141.5 140.1 139.7 127.4 132.9 144.1 117.4 115.3 137.1 125.4 117.8 109.0 109.8 115.7 120.6 111.1 106.1
Other fo o d 100.0 111.1 107.1 103.9 108.4 102.4 105.9 113.4 111.7 107.2 111.1 114.7 114.6 113.9 112.1 109.2 107.2 104.0
Bananas, US 100.0 111.5 113.3 106.4 106.8 109.2 106.4 107.9 103.9 106.7 107.1 110.3 106.3 103.4 103.5 104.7 104.7 115.4
Sugar, world 100.0 122.1 101.2 83.1 79.9 78.5 84.8 80.7 75.6 85.3 85.8 80.9 75.3 78.7 76.0 72.0 72.1 68.5
R aw materials 100.0 122.0 101.3 95.4 91.9 95.6 95.6 91.1 85.5 95.2 94.2 91.0 88.1 87.0 85.1 84.3 83.5 85.1
Cotton ("A" Index) 100.0 145.8 86.1 87.3 80.2 90.7 89.4 74.4 66.4 87.8 80.9 71.4 70.8 67.9 65.2 65.9 65.0 67.4
Rubber, Singapore 100.0 132.0 92.4 76.5 53.5 61.6 58.0 50.3 44.3 57.1 55.3 50.6 45.0 44.3 44.8 43.9 45.3 49.5
Sawnwood, M alaysia 100.0 110.7 103.3 100.5 105.9 106.3 108.1 107.3 101.7 108.6 109.7 107.3 104.8 103.2 101.4 100.5 97.5 98.5
F ert ilizers 100.0 142.6 137.6 113.7 100.5 102.5 95.8 101.5 102.1 96.2 99.1 102.3 103.1 102.7 101.9 101.8 102.7 99.5
Triple superphosphate 100.0 140.9 121.0 100.0 101.7 95.8 96.7 108.1 106.1 97.2 107.8 109.3 107.4 107.4 106.1 105.0 104.7 104.7
M etals and minerals 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 84.8 85.7 84.9 87.1 81.4 84.4 88.2 88.0 85.1 82.6 82.9 78.8 73.8 72.4
Aluminum 100.0 110.5 93.1 85.0 85.9 78.7 82.8 91.6 90.7 84.6 89.7 93.4 91.6 89.6 94.6 87.9 83.5 83.7
Copper 100.0 117.2 105.7 97.3 91.1 93.3 90.2 92.8 88.0 90.5 94.4 92.9 91.2 89.4 89.1 85.6 77.4 76.0
Gold 100.0 128.1 136.3 115.3 103.3 105.6 105.2 104.6 97.9 104.4 107.0 105.8 101.0 99.8 96.0 98.0 102.1 100.2
Nickel 100.0 105.1 80.5 68.9 77.5 67.2 84.7 85.2 72.7 85.4 87.7 85.3 82.7 72.5 72.5 73.2 68.1 66.8
M emo:
C rude Oil (US$ ) 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 96.2 103.7 106.3 100.4 74.6 108.4 105.2 100.1 95.9 86.1 77.0 60.7 47.1 54.8
Table A.4 Commodity price indices
a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to
1990.
b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
1999-09 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Ex port v alu es
Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 3 .2 2 0 .7 3 .2 3 .6 2 .2 1 2 .2 -7 .0 1 2 .4 -7 .9 0 .0 5 .0 -2 .7 2 .2 -0 .9 -2 .8 0 .5 -1 .3 . .
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 4 .2 1 9 .7 6 .1 6 .2 4 .6 2 2 .9 -1 1 .0 2 2 .0 3 .3 -0 .3 5 .2 -0 .7 2 .4 0 .8 -3 .0 2 .1 -0 .8 9 .6
China 19.5 20.2 8.1 8.2 5.3 23.1 -14.5 32.9 3.4 -1.1 8.2 -1.3 2.3 1.1 -3.3 2.8 -0.2 11.89
Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.3 -4.0 -3.4 52.5 -14.3 -2.6 -15.4 10.0 -9.1 1.2 5.4 -0.6 -12.5 4.1 -0.3 -6.73
Thailand 10.4 15.0 3.0 -0.2 -0.4 18.9 -4.9 -6.5 23.4 2.5 -2.8 -2.1 3.8 4.6 -3.8 4.9 -5.2 ..
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 5 .7 2 0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .3 0 .3 4 .6 6 .5 -6 .1 -2 5 .7 0 .6 5 .2 -9 .1 3 .5 -3 .9 -3 .0 -1 .2 -0 .2 . .
Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.7 -0.9 -4.9 -3.7 -14.9 -10.4 -50.1 -3.0 8.9 -9.8 -8.9 0.1 -9.0 -4.2 -7.7 ..
Turkey 14.0 18.4 13.0 -0.1 3.5 -3.8 35.9 -0.6 -16.2 -0.2 8.0 -8.4 2.2 -0.4 -3.6 0.1 7.1 ..
Poland 16.6 22.4 -3.1 10.2 7.6 8.0 19.0 -6.0 -13.9 1.4 2.2 -7.3 5.9 -4.2 -1.7 1.4 -4.3 ..
L atin America an d Caribbean 8 .3 2 3 .3 1 .7 0 .5 -1 .3 2 .2 -1 1 .5 3 .5 -2 6 .4 1 .3 3 .6 -5 .5 0 .0 -1 .7 -6 .1 0 .3 -1 .9 . .
Brazil 11.5 27.0 -4.7 -0.6 -6.7 21.2 -23.1 9.9 -51.8 2.5 13.6 -16.2 2.1 -9.4 -10.2 11.1 1.0 -11.5
Mexico 7.0 17.5 5.9 2.3 4.8 -2.1 -1.1 3.1 1.7 0.0 1.6 -1.2 -0.3 4.3 -4.7 0.1 -3.7 ..
Argentina 8.0 23.3 -4.5 1.8 -11.9 -19.9 -23.4 -19.0 -36.9 9.9 -6.4 -3.4 -3.4 -1.3 -3.0 -13.8 6.9 ..
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 7 .8 1 5 .1 2 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 20.3 -1.7 .. .. .. -3.7 5.1 .. .. -1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sou th As ia 1 4 .9 3 1 .6 -1 .8 6 .2 1 .9 -1 .0 -1 8 .9 1 1 .3 -8 .7 -3 .6 7 .1 0 .0 1 .0 -4 .9 8 .5 -9 .9 -5 .8 -6 .5
India 16.5 33.3 -1.9 6.1 1.7 -0.9 -22.2 11.0 -10.7 -4.1 7.6 0.2 -0.4 -3.4 7.0 -10.9 -6.2 -6.94
Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.3 -1.4 -25.1 8.3 26.7 20.5 -4.1 0.6 4.7 2.8 -3.0 8.7 -3.7 -1.9 -1.55
Bangladesh - 26.7 3.2 12.0 .. 6.4 -7.1 10.6 .. .. .. -5.3 16.7 -21.6 30.1 .. .. ..
Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 3 .3 1 9 .1 -2 .9 0 .2 -9 .1 -2 0 .3 6 9 .7 -1 7 .1 -3 5 .4 . . . . -8 .5 8 .0 -7 .1 -7 .2 -2 .3 . . . .
South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -4.8 5.8 -3.6 3.1 1.0 -1.8 2.8 -5.6 10.4 -2.6 -5.6 6.4 -10.5 ..
Nigeria 21.2 22.6 -2.4 0.3 -14.3 -42.0 0.0 8.0 -21.8 .. .. 0.3 -0.7 -2.4 -3.0 -4.2 .. ..
Ex port prices b,c
Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.1 14.0 -0.9 -2.0 -3.7 -7.2 -3.7 4.2 -10.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -2.4 -0.5 -2.2 ..
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .4 1 4 .5 1 .8 0 .4 -1 .3 -8 .1 -5 .4 7 .6 -2 .3 0 .5 0 .0 1 .0 1 .2 -0 .4 -2 .6 1 .1 -1 .9 2 .1 2
China 3.5 15.2 4.5 1.9 -0.9 -11.2 -7.4 11.6 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.8 2.3 -0.4 -3.3 1.8 -2.2 1.829
Indonesia 5.1 17.0 -6.8 -4.4 -6.2 -4.7 -5.1 -11.1 -17.3 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -2.3 -1.4 -2.9 -0.12
Thailand 2.0 10.9 -3.0 -2.7 -1.9 -0.6 -1.3 -1.4 -2.7 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.198
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .8 7 .2 -5 .1 -2 .9 -6 .9 -0 .5 0 .9 -3 .6 -1 6 .1 0 .0 0 .1 -1 .4 -1 .3 -2 .0 -0 .7 -1 .6 -3 .0 . .
Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 -1.3 -1.8 -6.2 -3.2 4.6 -15.7 -51.0 0.4 1.3 -3.3 -3.0 -6.2 -6.5 -11.5 -11.3 6.523
Turkey -8.6 0.4 -9.7 -5.2 -14.3 0.8 0.1 -3.4 -27.2 0.0 0.0 -2.9 -2.7 -3.1 -1.6 -2.7 -2.5 11.25
Poland 1.9 10.2 -1.7 -1.8 0.1 1.4 0.2 2.6 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.33
L atin America an d Caribbean 2 .5 1 4 .3 -8 .8 -7 .5 -9 .0 -1 3 .8 -3 .9 2 .3 -2 8 .3 0 .9 3 .0 -0 .9 -1 .9 -3 .3 -3 .4 -3 .2 -2 .4 . .
Brazil 2.3 29.5 -18.4 -12.4 -13.5 -2.9 -9.5 -4.4 -46.9 -0.6 1.5 -3.4 -3.3 -7.5 -3.5 -6.9 -6.0 8.909
Mexico 3.8 3.5 -5.0 -2.1 -1.8 -13.3 -0.6 17.9 -18.6 1.0 6.5 0.6 -1.1 -1.6 -3.8 -1.2 -2.0 -4.41
Argentina -2.1 12.4 -7.1 -17.9 -34.5 -56.9 -10.8 -26.5 -25.7 1.4 3.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 15.2 -8.67
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .0 1 6 .6 2 2 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -6.8 -2.8 8.1 -18.4 -62.4 0.6 2.0 -4.2 -3.5 -8.4 -8.9 -16.9 -17.4 11.35
Iran 13.5 28.3 0.3 -0.8 -7.4 -3.7 6.8 -19.3 -63.2 0.4 1.9 -4.3 -3.7 -8.5 -9.2 -17.2 -17.8 11.37
Egypt 5.3 17.0 0.1 -0.9 -5.1 -1.5 -2.8 -11.6 -23.3 -0.5 0.1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.9 -3.8 -2.9 -4.7 0.498
Sou th As ia 2 .3 1 1 .1 -3 .4 -1 .9 -2 .4 -0 .9 -3 .2 -2 .0 -4 .4 -0 .6 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .4
India 2.5 11.6 -3.8 -1.9 -2.7 -1.0 -3.8 -2.6 -4.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.44
Pakistan 2.1 9.8 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 1.5 -4.0 3.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.07
Bangladesh 1.6 9.0 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 1.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.014
Su b-Sah aran Africa 8 .1 2 4 .1 -3 .4 -4 .1 -7 .4 4 .2 2 .3 -1 3 .6 -4 8 .4 . . . . -3 .1 -2 .4 -5 .8 -6 .2 -1 0 .3 . . . .
South Africa 4.5 22.3 -7.7 -6.5 -7.5 -5.6 -7.9 -5.1 -15.9 -1.1 -0.3 -1.2 -2.1 -1.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.5 -0.93
Nigeria 14.3 29.2 0.5 -0.8 -7.4 -3.0 6.7 -20.1 -63.2 0.4 2.0 -4.4 -3.6 -8.5 -9.5 -16.9 -18.2 11.21
Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly
figures, which are m/m change /a)
/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.
/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean)
regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
1999-09 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
I mport v alu es
Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 3 .4 2 9 .9 1 4 .9 1 1 .0 -4 .3 -2 .5 -8 .9 2 .8 -6 .6 2 .9 0 .2 -3 .2 -1 .2 -4 .1 2 .4 8 .5 -2 4 .8 . .
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 5 .9 2 4 .2 5 .6 5 .8 -0 .4 -3 .0 -1 4 .6 1 5 .5 -9 .2 3 .7 0 .2 -1 .3 7 .9 -2 .1 -8 .2 2 .4 -8 .7 -7 .2
China 20.4 24.9 4.9 7.6 -0.2 -0.2 -18.6 18.2 -10.2 4.8 0.6 -1.9 8.3 -1.7 -9.8 3.6 -10.8 -6.1
Indonesia 15.2 30.7 8.3 -2.7 -4.5 -2.2 -6.3 -12.6 -4.3 6.5 -10.8 12.1 5.9 -5.2 -5.4 1.5 -7.2 -4.8
Thailand 12.0 23.8 9.7 -0.8 -8.6 -25.4 -0.1 27.4 -20.4 -2.6 8.1 -11.1 24.4 -12.4 -1.0 -6.1 -3.8 ..
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 3 .8 2 7 .1 -0 .2 2 .9 -4 .6 -1 6 .9 -5 .7 -5 .9 -8 .0 0 .4 -1 .8 -3 .5 3 .6 -2 .6 -0 .9 0 .0 -9 .0 . .
Russian Federation 14.2 30.8 5.7 2.0 -9.4 -0.9 -15.2 -16.7 -38.7 2.1 1.5 -10.5 4.9 -4.8 -9.4 -0.8 -15.2 ..
Turkey 13.4 30.1 -1.7 6.2 -3.7 -18.2 -11.3 6.0 10.4 4.0 -5.2 5.9 0.6 -0.7 3.7 -4.3 -9.9 ..
Poland 12.7 18.5 -5.4 4.1 5.8 23.1 -4.8 -13.8 -21.9 -11.7 7.1 -6.7 2.8 -3.5 -1.9 -2.3 -9.6 ..
L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .5 2 2 .5 3 .8 3 .0 -0 .3 6 .3 -5 .8 6 .4 -7 .2 1 .6 1 .5 -5 .5 6 .4 -3 .4 -3 .3 4 .7 -7 .7 . .
Brazil 9.6 24.7 -1.1 7.2 -4.4 13.4 -29.2 19.0 -25.8 -1.2 6.3 -6.9 7.8 -7.3 -6.0 5.0 -7.6 -0.5
Mexico 6.6 16.5 5.8 2.8 4.9 8.4 13.9 2.2 5.0 3.8 0.5 -2.8 2.6 -0.3 -1.9 6.2 -8.2 ..
Argentina 8.6 31.1 -8.1 8.1 -11.0 12.2 -22.8 -22.1 -18.4 3.1 -5.5 -4.2 5.6 -3.1 -6.0 -0.2 -2.5 ..
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .7 1 8 .0 9 .8 . . . . 0 .0 0 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia 11.8 22.5 19.6 8.3 1.7 17.1 -21.5 20.2 -29.8 -1.6 -10.4 40.7 -13.7 -14.9 11.4 -1.9 -5.2 ..
Iran 13.0 44.4 -2.9 .. .. 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 13.6 17.6 16.8 -8.5 0.6 -17.5 -37.0 212.5 -41.0 -15.7 .. 31.0 -4.9 -16.2 2.1 -5.6 .. ..
Sou th As ia 1 7 .7 3 1 .4 4 .0 -4 .0 1 .3 2 .7 1 0 .0 3 6 .8 -1 4 .3 8 .1 -0 .6 5 .1 -9 .3 1 2 .2 -1 8 .0 -1 0 .9 -2 .0 . .
India 19.2 32.4 5.5 -5.1 -0.6 -2.5 14.6 34.6 -14.2 7.4 1.0 9.0 -11.5 18.1 -22.9 -9.5 -4.2 ..
Pakistan 14.8 16.3 0.5 1.1 7.2 41.6 -11.4 45.3 -13.4 19.3 -16.9 -3.4 -3.2 -13.2 3.6 -24.2 21.2 ..
Bangladesh 29.7 -5.7 5.5 15.4 18.8 13.5 20.4 -13.5 1.9 .. -20.8 6.2 -9.5 11.6 .. .. ..
Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 4 .0 3 3 .8 2 1 .9 1 5 .4 . . 0 .0 0 .0 -2 .6 . . 0 .2 0 .1 -5 .1 -4 .4 6 .2 . . . . . . . .
South Africa 14.6 23.6 1.5 -0.5 -3.4 -13.0 1.0 0.0 8.4 -2.5 3.3 0.8 7.9 -9.2 1.0 -5.0 .. ..
Nigeria 7.6 30.2 -12.9 -3.3 6.7 .. .. 10.2 13.1 .. .. 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 .. .. ..
I mport prices b ,c
Dev elopin g cou n tries 2.8 13.2 -2.2 -2.2 -3.0 -11.9 4.4 -2.1 -16.6 -1.4 2.0 -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 ..
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .4 1 6 .5 0 .8 -0 .5 -3 .0 -1 2 .7 3 .7 0 .4 -1 2 .9 -3 .2 2 .2 0 .0 0 .0 -1 .2 -1 .8 -3 .2 -2 .7 -0 .1
China 4.6 19.2 1.6 0.7 -3.6 -16.4 5.3 1.1 -13.0 -4.7 2.8 0.3 0.3 -1.3 -1.7 -4.0 -2.9 -0.1
Indonesia 2.3 11.6 -2.0 -1.8 -1.2 0.5 0.2 -3.5 -4.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 0.0
Thailand 3.4 10.2 1.6 -2.1 -1.8 0.2 -0.2 -4.5 -14.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -2.1 -2.8 -4.1 2.5
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 .0 7 .7 -6 .2 -4 .4 -8 .7 -1 6 .0 6 .0 -1 0 .7 -2 4 .9 -0 .8 0 .2 -3 .2 -2 .1 -2 .9 -1 .0 -2 .9 -2 .1 . .
Russian Federation 1.9 9.9 -1.6 -1.6 0.5 1.5 0.5 4.6 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Turkey -7.7 3.4 -9.5 -6.8 -15.6 -29.9 14.7 -9.8 -32.1 -0.5 0.2 -3.5 -4.1 -4.1 0.2 -4.9 -5.3 15.5
Poland 4.6 11.4 -3.9 1.5 -2.1 4.6 -4.2 -19.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.7 -3.9 -0.3 -0.7 -2.2 6.8 -1.8 0.3
L atin America an d Caribbean 0 .0 1 1 .7 -5 .9 -3 .6 -8 .0 -1 5 .4 8 .5 -4 .4 -2 0 .7 0 .3 4 .8 -1 .1 -1 .4 -2 .1 -1 .2 -4 .5 0 .1 . .
Brazil 1.7 20.3 -13.3 -10.6 -10.4 -16.0 25.4 -8.7 -42.6 2.1 -0.2 -2.4 -3.9 -5.1 -4.2 -6.9 0.3 10.9
Mexico -0.6 9.3 -4.7 2.8 -3.3 -3.5 8.1 -4.7 -21.7 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 -2.3 -1.1 -6.8 -2.1 12.0
Argentina -5.7 1.5 -10.5 -12.4 -32.7 -59.2 -24.2 -6.4 8.1 0.0 45.3 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 14.5 -6.6
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 3 .8 9 .5 1 .7 . . . . 0 .0 0 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia 2.2 10.5 -1.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.8 -0.5 1.6 -1.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
Iran 2.6 11.3 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3
Egypt 2.7 14.0 -1.6 -2.0 -2.2 0.1 1.1 -7.2 -2.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9
Sou th As ia 4 .7 1 7 .9 -0 .9 -3 .5 -4 .4 -0 .6 1 .9 -8 .6 -2 7 .2 0 .3 -0 .6 -2 .0 -1 .6 -2 .8 -3 .1 -4 .2 -4 .5 2 .4
India 5.6 19.2 -0.4 -3.8 -4.7 -0.6 1.8 -8.8 -32.3 0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -2.1 -3.3 -3.7 -5.3 -4.8 2.4
Pakistan 2.2 11.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 0.6 -3.2 -2.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
Bangladesh 13.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.6 1.2 1.0 -8.0 -2.7 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.2
Su b-Sah aran Africa 3 .3 1 2 .8 -2 .4 -2 .2 . . 0 .0 0 .0 -1 .7 . . 0 .2 0 .1 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .5 -1 .4 . . . . . .
South Africa 4.9 8.5 -5.6 -3.0 -4.3 -10.2 8.4 -14.9 -25.5 0.0 0.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.2 9.3 -1.2
Nigeria -2.8 23.7 -20.8 -10.4 -0.6 0.4 0.7 35.7 -12.3 -0.3 -0.2 6.8 -14.2 13.7 -20.3 22.3 -9.6 1.8
/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.
/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean)
regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual
rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
World -5719.8 -7697.0 -9417.0 -10701.1 -9938.0 -10072.3 -10035.4 -9942.7 -9701.5 -9897.0 -10285.8 -9866.3 -9676.0 -8916.2 -9395.5 -10792.9 -6389.7
High - in come cou n tries a -4 3 9 .2 -4 3 4 .6 -4 4 3 .9 -3 2 2 .6 -3 8 6 .8 -4 7 2 .5 -4 1 4 .4 -3 8 2 .0 -2 7 8 .3 -4 8 8 .3 -3 8 2 .8 -3 1 4 .1 -4 4 9 .1 -2 5 8 .5 -2 1 1 .9 -3 6 4 .5 1 3 .7
Industrial countries -832.8 -1055.2 -1078.7 -918.6 -986.0 -1044.8 -1053.8 -1010.6 -834.7 -1113.2 -1089.0 -926.9 -1016.0 -838.6 -774.3 -891.1 -557.4
United States -635.2 -726.8 -733.4 -690.5 -721.5 -693.7 -726.7 -718.2 -747.3 -708.3 -723.6 -647.5 -783.3 -729.1 -662.5 -850.2 -689.1
Japan 75.6 -31.9 -88.1 -116.5 -122.5 -191.9 -121.2 -98.5 -78.4 -133.9 -118.0 -71.2 -106.1 -91.8 -52.7 -90.7 -34.6
Euro Area 63.3 58.1 171.8 263.8 317.3 276.5 299.5 313.9 379.2 258.3 324.8 269.5 347.3 378.5 315.6 443.6 362.3
United Kingdom -461.9 -547.6 -557.2 -546.8 -637.9 -639.3 -673.8 -672.5 -566.1 -683.3 -737.6 -649.8 -630.1 -594.3 -546.9 -557.0 -457.6
Other high income -832.8 -1055.2 -1078.7 -918.6 -986.0 -1044.8 -1053.8 -1010.6 -834.7 -488.3 -382.8 -314.1 -449.1 -258.5 -211.9 -364.5 13.7
Hong Kong (China) -43.0 -54.2 -61.3 -64.6 -71.3 -71.0 -68.9 -67.0 -78.3 -60.1 -68.5 -59.3 -73.2 -81.5 -76.0 -77.2 -81.3
Singapore 40.65 43.86 29.03 37.04 43.86 37.44 44.25 46.94 46.84 55.02 41.96 54.57 44.28 33.01 70.92 36.59 79.1
Taiwan (China) 10.9 11.4 15.1 18.3 22.7 12.9 26.9 23.5 27.7 13.9 20.5 18.2 31.7 29.1 23.6 30.4 33.0
Dev elopin g cou n tries -5 2 8 0 .2 -7 2 6 1 .8 -8 9 6 8 .4 -1 0 3 6 2 .0 -9 5 3 8 .7 -9 5 9 2 .4 -9 6 1 1 .4 -9 5 4 6 .4 -9 4 0 4 .4 -9 4 0 0 .3 -9 8 9 0 .7 -9 5 3 6 .1 -9 2 1 2 .5 -8 6 4 2 .7 -9 1 6 4 .7 -1 0 4 0 5 .9 -6 4 6 8 .9
Eas t As ia an d Pacific 2 4 0 .1 1 9 7 .1 2 2 2 .9 2 4 7 .0 4 0 1 .3 1 9 2 .8 3 9 9 .7 4 5 8 .9 5 5 3 .9 3 4 3 .2 4 9 8 .2 5 0 9 .1 3 6 9 .3 4 6 0 .5 5 9 8 .4 6 0 2 .9 8 1 5 .4
China 179.7 151.1 218.1 248.0 370.3 162.1 358.4 443.8 517.0 307.4 475.9 480.3 375.3 437.6 556.1 557.2 758.6
Indonesia 22.1 25.8 -1.6 -4.2 -1.9 -1.6 -3.5 1.4 -4.0 0.5 13.3 -4.0 -5.2 3.5 -9.6 -5.7 6.1
Thailand 8.2 -7.0 -22.6 -20.9 -0.4 5.5 1.2 -16.6 8.5 6.2 -16.6 5.1 -38.4 4.6 -2.0 23.1 18.8
Malaysia 34.6 40.9 30.9 22.2 25.4 26.5 31.4 21.8 22.0 20.2 25.2 10.4 29.7 5.0 32.6 28.3 30.4
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia -4 5 .2 -9 0 .9 -9 0 .5 -1 1 2 .0 -7 8 .2 -7 3 .7 -7 0 .7 -6 9 .9 -9 8 .6 -7 5 .6 -4 6 .8 -7 9 .7 -8 3 .3 -8 8 .8 -1 0 0 .1 -1 0 6 .9 -5 0 .1
Russian Federation 149.2 196.2 191.8 180.4 187.3 171.4 208.2 208.3 161.3 190.5 242.6 221.1 161.2 176.5 161.6 145.8 154.4
Turkey -71.4 -106.2 -84.6 -99.4 -85.0 -78.4 -80.4 -84.1 -97.0 -85.9 -66.4 -93.9 -92.0 -90.8 -105.5 -94.5 -60.0
Poland -22.4 -20.3 -14.9 -4.3 -1.0 -5.8 -4.4 0.5 5.6 -3.3 -0.8 -2.1 4.4 2.7 3.2 10.9 21.1
Czech Republic 6.6 10.7 15.4 18.1 21.4 19.6 21.5 22.7 21.9 20.9 27.3 17.5 23.2 21.4 17.9 26.6 13.4
L atin America an d Caribbean -4 1 .5 -4 5 .1 -6 5 .4 -8 9 .2 -9 7 .8 -1 0 0 .4 -7 5 .4 -8 3 .1 -1 3 2 .3 -6 2 .2 -6 5 .0 -6 1 .2 -1 2 3 .2 -1 0 3 .7 -1 2 5 .1 -1 6 8 .0 -1 0 6 .9
Brazil 19.6 29.0 19.6 2.1 -3.6 -3.0 6.7 2.2 -20.5 7.0 24.1 -2.3 -15.2 -19.0 -26.3 -16.3 2.6
Mexico -3.3 -1.0 -0.7 -2.4 -2.9 -4.9 -1.8 -0.9 -4.1 -5.8 -1.3 5.2 -6.5 11.8 0.1 -24.1 -4.2
Argentina 11.6 9.9 12.1 8.0 6.4 1.4 9.5 9.7 4.9 15.4 11.6 11.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 -0.6 4.8
Colombia -0.7 2.7 1.0 -0.6 -9.2 -7.1 -6.0 -4.4 -19.2 -3.7 -10.5 1.0 -3.6 -14.6 -17.6 -25.6 ..
Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 5 .0 8 .0 -2 0 .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia 126.7 201.1 211.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 32.6 32.7 9.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt -23.5 -33.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Algeria 15.9 26.3 7.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sou th As ia -1 5 5 .4 -2 0 3 .6 -2 3 2 .6 -1 8 6 .9 -1 8 7 .3 -1 7 2 .9 -1 7 3 .4 -2 0 8 .4 -1 9 4 .5 -2 1 3 .4 -1 8 4 .8 -2 0 7 .0 -2 3 3 .4 -1 9 4 .2 -2 3 2 .0 -1 5 7 .3 -1 2 1 .2
India -124.0 -162.0 -193.2 -150.2 -142.4 -132.5 -131.2 -157.5 -148.4 -169.3 -145.7 -141.7 -185.2 -137.2 -196.9 -111.2 -90.5
Pakistan -16.6 -18.8 -19.7 -19.6 -23.2 -20.8 -22.9 -26.0 -23.0 -25.7 -16.9 -31.8 -29.2 -28.2 -19.1 -21.8 -10.8
Bangladesh -8.6 -11.7 -8.9 -7.7 .. -10.9 -11.6 -12.8 .. -10.7 -8.3 -22.7 -7.3 -17.0 -5.1 .. ..
Sri Lanka -5.1 -9.7 -9.4 -7.8 -8.1 -7.0 -5.9 -10.2 -9.4 -5.9 -11.9 -9.1 -9.7 -10.0 -8.8 -9.5 ..
Su b-Sah aran Africa -5 2 9 2 .8 -7 1 2 6 .8 -8 7 8 2 .0 -1 0 1 9 4 .9 . . -9 4 1 4 .1 -9 6 8 9 .7 -9 6 4 0 .1 . . -9 3 9 0 .9 ####### -9 6 8 0 .0 -9 1 3 9 .8 -8 7 4 3 .9 -9 3 2 7 .2 . . . .
South Africa 8.1 6.1 -3.9 -7.5 -8.6 -4.3 -9.9 -9.2 -11.0 -8.9 -8.7 -13.4 -5.4 -15.7 -10.9 -6.3 -11.1
Nigeria 27.3 29.6 35.7 37.9 20.9 27.4 20.8 20.9 14.3 19.9 21.5 21.2 20.1 17.6 14.7 10.5 ..
Memo:
OECD -900.2 -1152.6 -1155.6 -1012.1 -1065.4 -1117.7 -1129.0 -1086.3 -928.6 -1197.8 -1146.3 -1008.1 -1104.4 -913.3 -871.4 -1001.0 -607.7
Developing excl. China -5460.2 -7413.3 -9188.2 -10606.3 -9915.4 -9740.9 -9967.6 -10003.2 -9950.0 -9701.3 -10378.4 -10032.7 -9598.5 -9099.0 -9746.2 -11004.6 -7255.8
Developing oil exporters 267.6 293.9 227.5 207.2 179.9 187.8 227.7 190.4 113.8 234.7 211.5 188.2 171.4 157.3 144.0 40.0 96.1
Developing non-oil exporters -5547.8 -7555.5 -9194.0 -10554.7 -9733.0 -9784.6 -9840.1 -9756.7 -9550.6 -9637.7 -10114.8 -9740.7 -9414.6 -8842.1 -9336.9 -10472.9 -6681.2
Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)
a/ Seasonally adjusted
March 18, 2015
MARCH 2015
Av erage 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
World .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries 9.3 5.6 -1.3 -2.7 -0.2 -2.4 4.5 3.2 -5.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -2.0 -1.7 -4.3 -1.2 0.9 -0.7
United States (SDR/USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -7.8 -10.1 -3.4 -5.0 -12.3 -0.2 0.3 -1.2 -4.1 -0.6 -7.2 -2.5 0.8 -0.3
Euro Area -4.7 5.0 -7.6 3.3 -0.1 3.9 5.0 -0.1 -8.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.7 -3.2 -1.6 .. .. .. ..
United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 5.3 6.8 9.6 7.5 -2.3 0.5 0.9 -2.2 -2.4 -1.4 -1.9 -0.9 -3.0 1.2
Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Singapore 6.7 8.4 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -2.5 -0.3 1.3 -3.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -0.9 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.2
Taiwan (China) 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -0.4 -2.1 -2.7 -0.9 -0.5 -4.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -2.2 -0.8 0.4
Dev elopin g cou n tries
Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
China 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.6 -0.2 2.0 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5
Indonesia 14.5 3.6 -6.5 -10.2 -12.1 -18.1 -16.0 -9.3 -5.2 -1.9 2.0 -0.4 -1.6 -2.0 -0.2 -2.2 -1.0 -1.6
Thailand 8.2 4.0 -1.9 1.1 -5.4 -8.7 -7.9 -2.0 -3.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 0.5
Malaysia 9.4 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -3.7 -6.5 -5.1 1.5 -4.7 0.3 1.1 0.2 -1.3 -1.6 -2.4 -3.8 -2.8 -0.5
Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Russian Federation 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.5 -17.4 -13.2 -9.4 -9.7 -32.2 1.4 -1.1 -3.9 -4.8 -7.2 -11.5 -18.6 -11.8 0.5
Turkey 3.1 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 -12.9 -19.3 -12.8 -9.0 -10.4 -1.4 0.0 -1.9 -2.4 -1.7 0.8 -2.8 -1.6 -5.2
Poland 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.0 0.1 3.1 5.9 1.5 -9.0 0.1 -0.7 -2.8 -3.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -6.5 0.0
Czech Republic -0.2 8.0 -9.6 0.0 -5.8 -3.3 -1.3 -6.6 -11.4 -1.0 -0.5 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.9 -1.2 -6.4 -1.2
L atin America an d Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Brazil 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -8.5 -15.8 -7.3 0.5 -10.7 0.1 0.5 -1.9 -3.0 -4.7 -4.0 -3.9 0.7 -6.5
Mexico 6.9 1.6 -5.4 3.0 -4.1 -4.5 -3.9 -1.6 -6.3 -0.5 0.0 -1.2 -0.7 -1.8 -1.1 -6.4 -0.9 -1.4
Argentina -4.7 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 -32.7 -34.4 -35.1 -32.7 -28.7 -0.7 -0.4 -1.7 -1.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0
Colombia 13.6 2.7 2.9 -3.9 -6.7 -10.7 -2.6 -0.2 -12.2 1.5 1.5 -2.2 -3.8 -3.5 -4.0 -9.4 -1.8 -1.0
Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -30.0 -50.4 -51.4 -13.0 -7.2 -0.3 -0.3 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5
Egypt -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -11.7 -3.0 -3.9 -1.8 -2.5 -3.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -4.3
Algeria -1.8 1.1 -6.2 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 -5.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -2.6 -1.6 -2.5 -2.4 -5.2
Sou th As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
India 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -8.8 -4.2 -12.3 -6.7 2.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.6 0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 1.0 0.2
Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 0.5 -5.4 0.2 2.5 5.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.4 -2.3 -0.3 0.9 1.1 0.0 -0.7
Bangladesh -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 4.8 0.7 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
Sri Lanka 1.7 2.3 -13.4 -1.2 -1.1 -3.0 -2.8 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8
Su b-Sah aran Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .
South Africa 15.0 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 -11.0 -17.6 -9.9 -7.2 -9.5 -2.6 0.2 0.0 -3.0 -0.7 -0.4 -3.7 -0.4 -0.1
Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 -3.6 -3.3 -2.2 -0.7 -7.8 -0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -4.0 -5.5 -2.3 -6.4
Memo:
OECD 9.1 5.6 -1.5 -2.7 -0.3 -2.4 4.4 3.0 -5.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -2.0 -1.7 -4.2 -1.3 0.8 -0.7
Table A.8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)