the world bank energy program in east asia and the pacific region charles feinstein eap sector...
TRANSCRIPT
The World Bank Energy Program in East Asia and the
Pacific Region
Charles FeinsteinEAP Sector Manager, Energy and Water
PSLO SeminarNovember 6, 2013
Agenda
1 Strategy and Priorities
2 Global trends and EAP flagship activities
3 Overview of EAP energy program
4 Myanmar case study
Focal areas
• Institutional capacity building and policy advice• Introducing new financing mechanisms and market-based
approaches including trade in energy saving certificates• Energy efficient cities and green infrastructure
• Policy and regulatory framework (feed-in-tariff)• Resource assessment and pre-investment activities• Financing RE (hydropower, wind, geothermal, solar PV)• Supporting T&D projects, regional integration and trade
• Regulatory framework for advanced energy solutions• IGCC/CCS, energy storage, electric vehicles, smart grids• Low-carbon energy solutions, conventional and
unconventional gas
• Capacity building and institutional development• Grid and off-grid rural electrification programs• Access to clean and efficient cooking fuels and facilities• Knowledge sharing, regional initiatives and partnerships
Strategy and priorities
Turning strategy into action
Improving energy
efficiency
Scaling-up renewable
energy
Introducing new technologies
Increasing energy access
Advancing sector reforms
• Stable and transparent regulatory regime for PPP• Cost-reflective tariff system and well targeted subsidies for
poor and vulnerable consumers• Gradual introduction of environmental externalities in the
energy pricing
Global Trends and EAP Flagships
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL)
Universal energy access (electricity
and modern cooking fuels) by 2030
Double the renewable energy
share in global energy mix
Double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency
F1: Winds of Change : Scaling-up RE and EE
F2: One Goal Two Paths : Achieving Universal Access to Modern Energy
F3: Sustainable Urban Energy and Emissions Planning
EA
P F
lag
ship
Act
ivit
ies
Energy efficiency, renewable energy and low-carbon technologies can stabilize CO2 emissions in EAP by 2030 and improve local environment and energy security without compromising economic growth.
However, the average annual incremental cost of SD scenario is $ 80 billion or about 0.8% of regional GDP …
F1: Scaling-up Renewable Energy and EE
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Investments Costs in China and EAP 5 as Share of GDP (3 year moving average; Capex Investment )
China SD
China BAU
EAP5 BAU
EAP5 SD
Energy efficiency, renewable energy and low-carbon technologies can stabilize CO2 emissions in EAP by 2030 and improve local environment and energy security without compromising economic growth.
However, the average annual incremental cost of SD scenario is $ 80 billion or about 0.8% of regional GDP …
F1: Scaling-up Renewable Energy and EE
… major policy and institutional reforms are needed
Ab
atem
ent
co
st
Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy
• Regulations and financial incentives
• Institutional reform and green financing
• Feed-in Tariff or RE Standard
• Tax on fossil fuel
• R&D and technology transfer
• Financing incremental costs
New Technologies
Energy pricing reforms
Energy efficiency, renewable energy and low-carbon technologies can stabilize CO2 emissions in EAP by 2030 and improve local environment and energy security without compromising economic growth.
However, the average annual incremental cost of SD scenario is $ 80 billion or about 0.8% of regional GDP …
F1: Scaling-up Renewable Energy and EE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16CO
2 em
issi
ons
(Gto
n)BAUEE
RE/NT
SD
F2: Universal Access to Modern Energy
Baseline in EAP: Despite impressive economic growth, 170 million people lack access to electricity…
F2: Universal Access to Modern Energy
….and every second household in the region still depends on solid fuels for cooking.
Indonesia: 1000 Islands Electrification Program
Renewable Energy based Electricity Access Scale-up & Integration
Electricity for a Better Life
Meeting the Indonesia Electrification Challenge
In response:• The Government has announced a 1,000 islands electrification
program as a means to improve electricity access in its outer islands through renewable energy sources
• As part of the strategy to address the high cost of generation:– PLN is converting, where technically and economically feasible
and sustainable, its isolated grids from pure diesel-based generation to renewable diesel hybrid systems
– investing in new solar-diesel hybrid systems, and – investing in mini-hydros
• In parallel, PLN is embarking upon a grid rollout program that would improve electricity access, especially in the outlying communities in remote islands
Integrated Renewable Energy Planning and Investment Program
GEOSPATIAL MAPPING - LEAST COST ELECTRIFICATION PLANNING
[GIS BASED RAPID SPATIAL PLANNING PLATFORM]
ISLAND-BASED ISOLATED GRIDS, GRID EXTENSION, & OFF GRID COMPLEMENT PLANNING
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE MAPPING
MESO SCALE MAPPING
GROUND BASED MEASUREMENTS
PROPOSED LOAN
RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ELECTRIFICATION (1,000 islands) PROJECTFUNDING SOURCES: World Bank, KfWFUNDING AMOUNT: US$ 600 million
• Cities account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s annual energy consumption and about 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
• EAP cities have relatively low consumption of energy per capita but the energy consumption and emissions are likely to increase.
• Municipal governments in the EAP region would need to formulate and implement long term urban energy and emissions sustainability plans.
F3: Sustainable Urban Energy and Emissions Planning
14
F3: Sustainable Urban Energy and Emissions Planning
15
SUEEP: Maps primary and secondary energy supply and use in a city, as well as efficiency of energy conversion and GHG emissions across municipal sectors;TRACE: Identifies priority areas for further investigation and intervention
GHG emissions by Fuel Source
F3: Sustainable Urban Energy and Emissions Planning
16
SUEEP: Maps primary and secondary energy supply and use in a city, as well as efficiency of energy conversion and GHG emissions across municipal sectors;TRACE: Identifies priority areas for further investigation and intervention
GHG emissions by Fuel Source Energy Flow in Surabaya
F3: Sustainable Urban Energy and Emissions Planning
17
SUEEP: Maps primary and secondary energy supply and use in a city, as well as efficiency of energy conversion and GHG emissions across municipal sectors;TRACE: Identifies priority areas for further investigation and intervention
GHG emissions by Fuel Source
GHG emissions by End Use
Energy Flow in Surabaya
EAP Energy Program
18
China and Mongolia
Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Thailand, Lao and Cambodia
Pacific Island States (PICs)
Energy EfficiencyESCO/EMCs;District Heating;Financial intermediaries for scaling-up EE investments;Trading in EE certificates and MRV system
Renewable EnergyIntertidal and off-shore wind power;Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Hydropower Pumped Storage
New TechnologiesIntegrated urban energy solutions for low-carbon cities: zero-emission buildings, solar PV, Electric Vehicles (EVs), energy storage and Smart Grids;Capacity building for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)Coal Bad Methane (CBM) and unconventional gas
Energy AccessClean Stove Initiative in China and Mongolia
Energy EfficiencyIndustrial EE and ESCOs
Renewable EnergyGeothermal powerHydropower Pumped Storage
Power TransmissionTransmission system expansion (substations and transmission lines)Management Information System
Energy AccessElectrification of islands in East Indonesia (solar PV and small RE)Clean Stove Initiative
New TechnologiesSustainable urban energy program (energy efficiency)CBM and unconventional gasCapacity building for CCS
Energy EfficiencyIndustrial EE and ESCOs
Renewable EnergyHydropower
Power TransmissionTransmission system expansion (substations and transmission lines)Distribution system expansion and modernization (smart metering)
Energy AccessRural power distribution
New TechnologiesSustainable urban energy program (energy efficiency);Smart Grids;Capacity building for LNG
Renewable EnergyDistributed renewable energy
Energy AccessRural power distribution
New TechnologiesSustainable urban energy program (energy efficiency);Capacity building for LNG
Renewable EnergyHydropower (Lao) and regional power trade in GMS
Power TransmissionGMS power transmission (substations and transmission lines)
Energy AccessRural power distribution and off-grid electrification (Lao and Cambodia)Clean Stove Initiative
Renewable EnergyDistributed renewable energy (small hydro, solar PV, biogas)Grid connected solar PV
Myanmar: Key Issues
1. Strategic Vision for Power Sector Development• Optimal fuel mix for secure and cost effective electricity supply in the domestic
market• Private sector participation model attractive for investors and affordable for
consumers
2. Reform of Legal and Regulatory Environment• Transparent and stable regulatory regime (adoption of new Electricity Law)• Financially sustainable power industry (cost recovery tariff for efficient power
services)
3. Implementation of Investment Program• Least-Cost Investment Program• Mobilization of long term capital
4. Institutional Development and Capacity Building • Coordination with National Energy Management Committee• Technical assistance to MOEP and MOE for energy policy • Policy dialog with development partners
5. Sponsor & Legacy Issues• Particularly relevant to private sector projects (e.g. IPPs with early MOAs)
Myanmar: Primary Energy Supply and Access to Electricity
Biomass accounts for about two-thirds of primary energy consumption
Electricity consumption per capita is one of the lowest in the world (and GMS)
Electrification ratio increased from 16% in 2006 to 27% in 2012 Large shortages in the gas (50%) and power (20-30%) market
Myanmar: Joint WBG Action Plan
1. Electric Power Project in MEPE (WB/IDA)• The $140 million CCGT Project presented at the Board on 09/24/2013, includes a sizable
TA component ($10 million)
2. Develop Analytical Basis for Strategic Decisions (WB, IFC and MIGA)• Complete Public Expenditure Review by end-2013 (WB)• Develop National Electrification Program by June 2014 (WB/SEFA)• Assess possible funding sources (IFC and MIGA)• Financial Viability Action Plan and fiscal impact assessment by June 2014 (WB)
3. Support Government Decision Making and Power Sector Reform and Development Program (WB, IFC and MIGA) – continuous activities• Policy dialog on power market reform options for Myanmar (follow-up on the 2013 Policy
Note to NEMC)• Policy briefs and presentations, workshops and outreach activities with other DPs• Electrification workshops (March and June 2014)
4. Preparation of Potential IFC Engagements• Joint advisory and investment proposal to support YESB• Investment support for emerging private sector projects in power distribution and gas-
fired power generation• Exploratory discussions around IFC role in LNG using InfraVentures• Initial scoping of potential opportunities in sustainable hydropower