the winter 2011-2012 winter recap and spring outlook jason hansford senior forecaster national...
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The Winter 2011-2012 Winter Recap and Spring
Outlook
The Winter 2011-2012 Winter Recap and Spring
Outlook
Jason HansfordSenior Forecaster
National Weather Service Forecast Office Shreveport, LA
December RainfallDecember Rainfall
December Observed Rainfall
Departure From Normal
2011 Total Precipitation2011 Total Precipitation
City: 2011 Total
Precip.
Departure from Normal
Rank (Driest)
2010 Total Precip.
Shreveport, LA 33.07 in. -18.34 in. 17th 30.73 in.
Monroe, LA 49.52 in. -4.50 in. ------- 43.01 in.
Texarkana, AR 30.69 in. -18.96 in. 11th 29.48 in.
El Dorado, AR 37.62 in. -15.30 in. 15th 34.26 in.
Tyler, TX 24.97 in. -20.82 in. 3rd 31.07 in.
Longview, TX 30.54 in. -17.01 in. 9th 26.82 in.
Lufkin, TX 33.77 in. -15.18 in. 21st 30.01 in.
December-March Rainfall December-March Rainfall
Departure From Normal
90 Day Observed Rainfall
April Rainfall (Ending 4/16/12)April Rainfall (Ending 4/16/12)
Observed Rainfall
Departure From Normal
Cumulative Winter RainfallCumulative Winter Rainfall
City: Dec. - Feb. Rainfall
Departure from Normal
% of Normal
Shreveport, LA 14.63 inches +0.91 inches 107%
Monroe, LA 18.04 inches +3.11 inches 121%
Texarkana, AR 11.27 inches -1.17 inches 91%
De Queen, AR 8.60 inches -2.76 inches 76%
El Dorado, AR 14.58 inches +0.31 inches 102%
Tyler, TX 11.88 inches +0.77 inches 107%
Longview, TX 13.31 inches +1.46 inches 112%
Lufkin, TX 15.25 inches +2.76 inches 122%
March FloodingMarch Flooding• Significant rainfall (widespread 4-8 inches, isolated
amounts > 10-12 inches) area wide.
• Drought has been eliminated across most areas.
• Significant rainfall (widespread 4-8 inches, isolated amounts > 10-12 inches) area wide.
• Drought has been eliminated across most areas.
March Month to Date Rainfall:
Departure from Normal:
The March Flood ContributorThe March Flood Contributor
March Monthly Rainfall March Monthly Rainfall
City: March Rainfall: Departure from Normal:
Rank for Wettest March
on Record:
Shreveport, LA 7.94 in. +3.80 in. 10th
Monroe, LA 10.67 in. +5.95 in. 2nd
Texarkana, AR 5.52 in. +1.32 in. -----
El Dorado, AR 8.77 in. +4.02 in. 9th
De Queen, AR 5.27 in. +0.63 in. -----
Tyler, TX 6.38 in. +2.26 in. -----
Longview, TX 4.77 in. +0.42 in. -----
Lufkin, TX 8.67 in. +4.89 in. 2nd
Hydrological Drought Impacts Hydrological Drought Impacts
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
Measured near 2 ft. on 10/11/11
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
Measured near 2 ft. on 10/11/11
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
Taken 3/21/12 around 10 am
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
Taken 3/21/12 around 10 am
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Hydrological Drought Impacts Hydrological Drought Impacts
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
June 17th, 2011 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
June 17th, 2011 (Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
March 21st, 2012
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Cane River in Natchitoches, LA
March 21st, 2012
(Photo courtesy of Wiley Butler)
Calculated Soil Moisture(Ending March 24, 2012)Calculated Soil Moisture(Ending March 24, 2012)
Soil Moisture has INCREASED to 500-600
mm (20-24 in.) deep!
Soil Moisture has returned to near/slightly
above normal!
Calculated Soil Moisture (Ending April 13, 2012)
Calculated Soil Moisture (Ending April 13, 2012)
Soil Moisture ComparisonSoil Moisture Comparison
Drought Severity IndicesDrought Severity Indices• Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most
effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate.
a) Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus.
• Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index.
a) Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index.
• Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate.
a) Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus.
• Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index.
a) Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index.
Palmer/Crop Moisture IndexPalmer/Crop Moisture Index
U.S. Drought Monitor (April 17th, 2012)
U.S. Drought Monitor (April 17th, 2012)
U.S. Drought Monitor(October 25th, 2011)
U.S. Drought Monitor(October 25th, 2011)
2011 Avg. Monthly Temperature
2011 Avg. Monthly Temperature
City: 2011 Avg. Monthly Temp.
Departure from Normal:
Rank:
Shreveport, LA 68.2° +2.5° T4th (with 1927 and 2006)
Monroe, LA 68.2° +2.4° 1st
Texarkana, AR 66.0° +2.1° T5th (with 2005)
El Dorado, AR 64.4° +0.9° T20th (with 1945 and 2004)
Tyler, TX 69.1° +3.7° 2nd (behind 1921 at 69.6°)
Longview, TX 68.5° +3.1° T1st (with 1911)
Lufkin, TX 68.9° +2.1° 2nd (behind 1998 at 69.1°)
CONUS Temperature Departure from Normal
CONUS Temperature Departure from Normal
Winter Temperature Comparison (“The Winter That
Wasn’t”)
Winter Temperature Comparison (“The Winter That
Wasn’t”)City: Dec. – Feb.
Avg. Temperature:
Departure from Normal:
Warmest Winters Rank:
Shreveport, LA 52.6° +4.0° 14th
Monroe, LA 51.9° +3.6° 4th
Texarkana, AR 49.0° +3.2° 17th
El Dorado, AR 47.2° +1.5° 31st
Tyler, TX 51.0° +2.7° 8th *
Longview, TX 51.3° +3.1° 8th
Lufkin, TX 53.6° +3.0° T10th *** Tied for 8th warmest winter on record with 1997. Sporadic records since 1895.
** Tied for 10th warmest winter on record with 2000.
Records since 1906.
Month by Month TemperatureComparison for Shreveport, LA
(Nov. 2011 – April 15th, 2012)
Month by Month TemperatureComparison for Shreveport, LA
(Nov. 2011 – April 15th, 2012)
March Avg. Temperature March Avg. Temperature
City: March Avg. Temperature:
Departure from Normal:
Rank for Warmest March
on Record:
Shreveport, LA 67.3° +9.4° 1st
Monroe, LA 68.0° +10.0° 1st
Texarkana, AR 64.8° +8.9° 3rd
El Dorado, AR 63.0° +7.2° 3rd
De Queen, AR 61.2° +8.0° 2nd
Tyler, TX 65.6° +8.7° 3rd
Longview, TX 65.9° +8.3° 3rd
Lufkin, TX 67.2° +7.6° 2nd
Arctic OscillationArctic Oscillation• Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern
middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical La Niña impacts.
1) Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies.
2) Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia.
• Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical La Niña impacts.
1) Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies.
2) Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia.
Arctic Oscillation (Nov. – Mar. 1950 - Current)
Arctic Oscillation (Nov. – Mar. 1950 - Current)
Limitations to Forecasting:Limitations to Forecasting:
Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.
Limitations to Forecasting:Limitations to Forecasting:
Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.
North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Fluctuations in the difference of Fluctuations in the difference of
sea-level pressure between the sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores Icelandic Low and the Azores high.high.
+ NAO prevents cold air from + NAO prevents cold air from plunging southward over eastern plunging southward over eastern North America.North America.
Shows multi-decadal signal.Shows multi-decadal signal.
Has an effect on Hurricanes in Has an effect on Hurricanes in the Atlantic. (During +NAO the Atlantic. (During +NAO events, the Bermuda High is events, the Bermuda High is weaker, allowing for a more W-E weaker, allowing for a more W-E flow across the Atlantic. SST’s in flow across the Atlantic. SST’s in the Atlantic are also unusually the Atlantic are also unusually cold following +NAO winters.) cold following +NAO winters.)
Historical NAO IndexHistorical NAO Index
Strong positive Strong positive anomalies this past anomalies this past winter.winter.
Strong negative Strong negative anomalies last anomalies last winter.winter.
Monthly Observed Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation
Indices
Monthly Observed Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation
Indices
SST’s in the Equatorial PacificSST’s in the Equatorial Pacific
Niño 3.4 Region:Niño 3.4 Region:5°N - 5°S and 170° - 120°W
[ ] [ ]
Long Term SST AnomaliesLong Term SST Anomalies
La Nina is Ending! So, What’s Next?!
La Nina is Ending! So, What’s Next?!
Probabilistic ENSO ForecastProbabilistic ENSO Forecast
Spring OutlookSpring Outlook
TemperatureTemperature PrecipitationPrecipitation
20 Month Rainfall and Departures (Mar. ’10-Apr. 11 ‘12)
20 Month Rainfall and Departures (Mar. ’10-Apr. 11 ‘12)
City: Total Precipitation:
Departure from Normal:
% of Normal:
Shreveport, LA 75.07 -33.21 69%
Monroe, LA 107.28 -6.73 94%
Natchitoches, LA 96.86 -20.60 82%
Texarkana, AR 68.11 -36.67 65%
El Dorado, AR 84.67 -27.18 76%
Hope, AR 82.06 -34.45 70%
Dequeen, AR 74.20 -29.75 71%
Idabel, OK 84.08 -25.70 77%
Mt. Pleasant, TX 70.45 -29.96 70%
Tyler, TX 65.26 -31.22 68%
Longview, TX 64.73 -35.63 64%
Lufkin, TX 76.16 -26.30 74%
Long Term Drought OutlookLong Term Drought Outlook
The EndThe End
Any Questions???Any Questions???