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The Whole EquationThe Vice President as Advisor

CISSM ForumAaron Mannes

November 6, 2014

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Not half a dozen men have ever been able to keep the whole equation of pictures in their heads.

F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Last Tycoon

Washington is Hollywood for ugly people.

Paul Begala

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Outline

1. Dissertation Overview:

Why & How has the vice presidency emerged as a top presidential advisor

2. Future Work

What kind of advice does the President need?

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Part 1: From Throttlebottom to Angler

I would a great deal rather be anything, say a professor of history, than Vice-President

– Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt, 25th Vice President of the United States

…the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably had in American history

– Vice President Joe Biden describing his predecessor, Dick Cheney

In just a few decades the vice presidency has shifted from “Constitutional appendage” to the “Imperial Vice Presidency”

What Changed?

• Why has the vice presidency become a source of influence? • Why have presidents been increasingly willing to follow

the advice of the vice president?

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Methodology• Influence is defined by Paul

Light as “an adviser’s ability to change outcomes from what they would have been.”

• Measuring influence by surveying the literature and lots & lots of interviews

• Process tracing by examining specific instances of vice presidential influence

• Little influence from regular interaction between the President and VP

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Modern PresidencyH1A: When the president is able to select his vice president, the VP is more likely to exercise influence

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 6 of 7 influential VPs)

• Until 1940, running mates were usually selected by the party and were often not known by the president or a political rival

• Allowing the nominee to select his running mate created the possibility of choosing him based on his skills and compatibility

• Example: Martin Van Buren

H1B: As the demands on the president have increased, the vice president will have greater opportunities to exercise influence

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 7 influential VPs)

• Despite the number of influential VPs since the advent of the modern presidency, the strength of this factor was that it created the possibility of the modern outsider president

• Insider modern presidents did not rely on their VPs nor did pre-modern outsider presidents

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The Semi-Institutional Vice Presidency

H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff are better able to exercise influence.

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs)

• In the 1970s, VPs were granted substantial personal staff

• Staff allowed the VP to follow issues, attend meetings, develop areas of expertise, and use surrogates for influence

Example: Dan Quayle

– One of two un-influential vice presidents studied, Quayle attracted extremely capable staffers and expanded the VP’s office

– Staff helped him push issues of interest like missile defense identified areas where he could play a role

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Carter & Mondale Reshape the Vice Presidency

H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to the President, and with access to White House meetings and paper-flow for themselves and their staff are better able to exercise influence

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs)

• Without access to the president, the VP cannot exercise influence

• Access to White House meetings and paper-flow is also essential in order to know what decisions are being considered

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H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the West Wing are better able to exercise influence

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs)

• Nothing propinks like propinquity

• Essence of vice presidential influence is time with the president, it is much easier to see the president with an office down the hall

• Policy is made by a process of osmosis

• Important, but not essential factor - Mondale’s successor, Bush Sr., did not spend as much time as in West Wing and during Cheney’s period of greatest influence he was often at an undisclosed location

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H2D: Vice presidents who are discreet in advancing their policy preferences and publicly loyal to the president are better able to exercise influence

Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7of 7 influential VPs)

• After consulting his predecessors, particularly his mentor VP Humphrey, VP Mondale adopted a set of low-key influence strategies

• Because VPs cannot be fired, they need to be particularly careful to demonstrate loyalty and discretion

• Influential VPs have restricted their advice to the president in private or in small trusted groups and publicly supported presidential decisions

Example: John C. Calhoun

- NOT a model of vice presidential discretion

- Headed a political faction and publicly opposed both presidents he served

- Later, when he sought to reach out to Jackson, the president was not amenable

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Outsiders & InsidersH3A: Outsider presidents are more likely to select running mates for personal and political compatibility, increasing the likelihood that the President will include the VP as a top advisor

Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs)

H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to be inexperienced in areas such as national security affairs and not have strong national security teams, thus creating opportunities for vice presidential influence

Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs)

• Outsider presidential candidates often recognize their unfamiliarity with Washington politics and national security issues and select running mates for their expertise

• When national security challenges (inevitably) confront outsider presidents, experienced VPs can help the president make decisions and understand options

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H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seek their vice presidents’ input in the appointments process, which increases the VP’s opportunities for influence

• Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable

• This factor was split into two components: - cabinet & bureaucracy allies present for

4 of 7 influential VPs

- White House allies present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs

• Allies in cabinet and bureaucracy less frequent for modern VPs

• Allies in White House are helpful as sources of information and as alternative voices advancing the VP’s position

Example: George H. W. Bush

- Bush was not selected for his expertise and, having been a campaign rival, was distrusted by Reaganites

- Reagan recognized the need for DC experience on his staff and appointed Bush advisor Jim Baker as White House chief of staff

- With Baker as chief of staff, Bush could not be cut out of policy process and had alternate means to reach president

Vice Presidential Needs

Opportunity

Capability

Access

• Without access the VP cannot influence policy

• Given access, the VP needs the capability to influence policy

• Even if these elements are present, the president has to give the vice president the opportunity to give advice

• Opportunities exist when outsider presidents encounter unfamiliar issues

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Part II: The President’s Needs

Electoral Advantage

TRUST

1. First and foremost, Presidents want to get elected – the Vice President is chosen for political reasons

2. Presidents need VPs that can be trusted (that aren’t pains in the ass).

3. Finally, when both of these conditions are satisfied, the President may turn to the Vice President for advice

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Areas & Modes of VP Influence

Areas• Big decisions, particularly

life & death issues• Balancing politics and

policy, particularly with Congress

• Tools and institutions of national security

• Insight into foreign governments

Modes• Advice on these different

elements• Activity, the vice president can

take on some of the President’s burden – liaising with Congress, visiting foreign countries, chairing commissions

• Personnel, vice presidents have insider staffers who can help President’s staff get things done

Advice Activity Personnel

Life & Death • Gore on Bosnia• Biden on Afghanistan• Bush on Terrorism

• Bush on Grenada• Bush on Terrorism

Politics & Congress

• Mondale on China• Mondale on Mid-East peace

process• Cheney on Expanded Surveillance• Biden on Afghanistan

• Gore on Bosnia• Gore on NAFTA

• Mondale on Defense Authorization Veto

Tools & Bureaucracy

• Cheney on the surge• Biden on Afghanistan• Bush on Terrorism• Cheney on expanded surveillance

• Bush on Terrorism• Biden on

Afghanistan

• Gore on Bosnia• Cheney on Expanded

Surveillance• Mondale on

Intelligence Reform

Foreign Governments

• Bush on Gorbachev• Mondale on Mid-East Peace

Process• Biden on Afghanistan

• Gore on Bosnia• Mondale on Mid-

East peace process

• Bush on Gorbachev• Quayle on Asia & Latin

America

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Concluding Thoughts: What vs. How

Wheels within Wheels Gordian Knots