the way out of the economic crisis for russia
DESCRIPTION
This paper was presented at the May 1 2012 forum organised by the Post-Global Initiative (IGPO) in Moscow. There is a slideshow, paper, and video. The video can be found at the IGPO site and the paper will be uploaded to Repec and academia shortly (as of 2 Jan 2014). A version of the paper is on the pglobal main website at http://pglobal.org/news/258/?sphrase_id=516, and the video is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2bHpGpPfgwTRANSCRIPT
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OUT OF CRISIS: A PRACTICAL PROGRAMME
Alan Freeman 30th April 2013
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ECONOMIC POLICY AND GROWTH SINCE THE CRISIS
Region/ Country
Policy applied Growth
EU Loose money, few banking controls, no stimulus
-2% over last 4 years
US Loose money, few banking controls, consumer stimulus
1.2% over last 4 years
China Expansionary money with strong banking controls;Investment-led stimulus
9% over last 4 years
India Strong state banking controls; Consumer stimulus
9.4% in 2010 falling to 5.3% in
2012
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US GROWTH IN POSTWAR BUSINESS CYCLES
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US GROWTH IN POSTWAR CYCLES
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US CAPACITY UTILISATION
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US UNEMPLOYMENT
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WHEN DID THE US GET OUT OF THE LAST CRISIS?
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HOW DID THE US GET OUT OF THE LAST CRISIS?
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EUROPE’S INVESTMENT COLLAPSE
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US INVESTMENT COLLAPSE
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WHY CHINA AND INDIA ARE GROWING
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THE IMF’S MISTAKE [IMF] growth forecasts have been systematically too low since the start of the Great Recession, by
0.4 to 1.2….
Whereas its own forecasts implied a multiplier of 0.5, the actual multipliers may be in the range of
0.9 to 1.7… There is a religious Golden Rule in (semi-) official literature which places the upper
limit on all multipliers at 1 …
This false logic explains why the UK’s ‘Office of Budget Responsibility’, a leading architect of
austerity forecast a 20.3% rise in business in the last two years while the actual increase has been
2.5%.