the vulnerability of small farmers to climate …1 the vulnerability of small farmers to climate...
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The Vulnerability of Small Farmers to Climate Change in the Amazon:
Adaptive Challenges of Inter-linked Environments
Eduardo S. Brondizio and Emilio F. Moran
Department of Anthropology
Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change (ACT)
Indiana University
Human adaptation to climate change
A-the processes that mediate perception of environmental change and behavioral adaptation at different levels:
.What processes affect differential adaptive responses to change at individual and population levels?
B- as a problem of functional interdependency (Young 2002) of resource use systems: the horizontal and vertical inter-linkages of economies, , ecosystems, and institutions
.How do different forms of cross-level institutional arrangements can help facilitate solutions to intricate cross-scale problems?
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Human dimensions of climate change
A-the processes that mediate perception of environmental change and behavioral adaptation at different levels
Adaptation to change and degree of vulnerability as a function of:
.Cultural context (repertoire of responses, knowledge environmental signals)
.Social context (social networks, supporting services, infrastructure)
.Environmental context (spatial landscape pattern, vegetation,..)
B- as a problem of functional interdependency of resource use systems and institutions:
Adaptation to change and degree of vulnerability as a function of:
.Different forms of cross-level and institutional arrangements facilitating co-production, mediation, translation, and negotiation of information and knowledge within and across levels
From Moran 1979/2000
Environmental perception and adaptive responses to changeEnvironmental inputs/signals recognized in cultural context (experience, knowledge, lexicon, behavioral scripts)
Is it comparable to previous experiences?
Repeated on previous behavior useful in the past as a response to similar stimuli
Or
Different experience triggering complex assessment:
Can we compare this to our previous experience?
Are new “scripts” and routines worth the cost and the risk?
What are the pay-offs?
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Local populations and Inter-generational history
Cemetery, floodplains Western Marajo island, 1995
Brondizio, E. S. and W. A. Neves 1997: Ethnoecologia Cabocla. In C. Pavan ed. Uma estrategiaLatino Americana para a Amazonia. S.P. Unesp
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B-Functional interdependency of resource use systems, ecosystems, and institutionsForms of governance working at one level limited to deal with impacts at other levels
Brondizio, E. S., E. Ostrom, O. Young. Social Capital and Ecosystem Services: Institutions and Governance at multiple levels. In Anantha Duraiappah and Siddiq Osmani (eds.) Beyond the Wealth of Nations. United Nations Environmental Programme. (under review)
Deforestation (red) by 1994 Deforestation (red) by 2005
Source: Instituto Socioambiental (www.socioambiental.org), Dec 19, 2006Info site: http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/pgn/index_htmlDeforestation: http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/pgn/indique.html#
http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/slideshow_mapa.html
Xingu Indigenous Park, Xingu River Watershed, and Deforestation Mato Grosso, Brazil [ISA: www.socioambiental.org]
Global Forecasting: Decadal, inter-annual, seasonal circulation patterns
Monitoring and regional information dissemination
Media / information dissemination
State agricultural extension
Environmental signals (e.g., delayed rainfall)
Community and interest group information dissemination
Local methods of data collection
Knowledge of environmental signals
Oral transmission and Linguistic cues and lexicon
Frequency and magnitude of large scale ecosystem change experienced regionally
Degree of landscape connectivity and support service
Social networks and rural-urban connections
Regional composition of human and physical capital
Settlement pattern and Community organization
Asset value and Invested landesquecapital
Consumption – market balance of the household
Age and belief system
Stage of farm lot
Factors Affecting Perception and Responses to environmental change
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Vulnerability and adaptive responses
Approached from an Well being (based on Sen 1981, 1999)
-Ability to respond to change, stochastic events while maintaining basic capabilities and enabling conditions
Sen’s basic capabilities approach and enabling conditions1-Security2-Health3-Material wealth and livelihood4-Social relations5-Freedon of choice
Riverine Caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generat. colonists 1st. Generat. colonists
Diversity of small farmers in the Amazon
diverse and dynamic, varying in time in the region,
knowledge of the environment, cultural ties and density of social networks
strongly shaped by cycles of migratory flows
lack of servicesglobal commodity markets
large scale infrastructural changes
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Riverine Caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generat. colonists 1st. Generat. colonists
Extended drought and rainfall.planting time and risk of ‘seasonal trap’
.loss of crops and productivity.transportation and access to market
.flammability.water quantity and quality
.infectious and non-infectious diseases
Variation in low and high flood level.residency pattern.fishing grounds
.planting grounds.transportation and access to market
.infectious diseases
Accidental fire.risk invested capital
.neighbor conflict.non-infectious diseases
.Food security
.Economic independence
Credit debt
.Homelessness
.Health risks
.Social violence
Variability and Vulnerability of small farmers to climate change
Time in the regionCultural knowledge and cognitive ‘scripts’
Land use experience Social memory of events
Social networks and forms of collective actionDiversity of economic portfolio
Turn over of familiesCommunity breakdown
Environmental/ technological dependency
Propensity to innovateLandscape patchiness
Extension servicesLocation and access
.Food security
.Economic independence
Credit debit
.Homelessness
.Health risk
.Social violence
Riverine caboclo ‘Long-term’ residents 2nd. Generation colonists 1st. Generation colonists
Factors affecting adaptive responses to to climate change
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Curua Una - Region 1
Mujui dos Campos - Region 2
Moju-Jabuti - Region 3
Cuiaba-Santarem - Region4
Sampling
Historical occupation Land
tenure
Access and location
Regional sites
Regional
Intra regional
Communities
Farm level
Individual
Time of arrival in the regionSample from two colonization settlements
050
100150200250300
Antes de 1970 Anos 70 Anos 80 Depois de1990
# Fa
mili
es
(McCracken et al 1999, 2002, Moran et al 2002, Brondizio et al 2002)
Sample 904 families
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community
• Global processes, local dynamics: Formation and transformation of rural communities
Brondizio, Siqueira, Dantona 2006. AAA Annual meeting.
1800~1910Colonial occupation and Rubber economy
Formally recognized communities
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1930-1970Early logging corridors and Northeastern migrationsJute Cycle
1972-1979TransAmazon highway and BR-163Colonization settlementsNational Forest
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1979-1986Expanding agrarian reform settlements and agropastoral expansion
1986-1991Expanding agrarian reform settlements and agropastoral expansion
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1991-2001Industrial agriculture expansion
2003Number of Families
Rural Population (including floodplains)~180,000 to 200,000
Brondizio, Dantona, Siqueira 2006
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Pillars of community formation
• Formal religion recognition• Soccer team, soccer place of union• Formal schooling• Associative space
ENSO 1997/98
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Índice de Chuvas em Santarém (Anos de 1980-2000)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ano
Prec
ipita
cao
(mm
)
Rainfall (1980-2000) and most remembered Droughts and ENSO YearsSantarem 2001, n = 442
Percentage of responses
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Before 1974 1974 – 1978 1979 – 1983 1984 – 1987 1988 – 1993 1994 – 1998
Groups of Arrival on Property
%
Does not Remember an ENSO Year
Does not Remember
1997-98
1991-93
1986-87
1982-83
1977-78
1972-73
ENSO year
Moran et al 2006)
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Altamira Source of Weather Information
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%
nothing
don't know
tv
radio
new spaper
neighbors
union
church
ag agency
extension
nr agency
ngos
animal behavior
salt
other
% of Total Responses
Santarem Source of Weather Information
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%
nothing
don't know
tv
radio
new spaper
neighbors
union
church
ag agency
extension
nr agency
ngos
animal behavior
salt
other
% of Total Responses
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Perception of DroughtSource of information about more recent
drought (Enso 1997/98)
0 20 40 60 80 100
MediaCommunity groups
Government agenciesNGOsOthers
Personal experience
% Altamira farmers (n=252)
Perception of DroughtSource of information about more recent
drought (Enso 1997/98)
0 20 40 60 80
MediaCommunity groups
Government agenciesNGOsOthers
Personal experience
% Santarem farmers (n=442)
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Effect of Driest Year in Altamira
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
Dry Pasture
Delay Planting
Diminish Harvest
Increase Fire Susceptible Area
Fire Enter Neighbor's Property
Fire Enter Your Area
Breathing Problems
Traff ic Accidents
Affect Perennial
Affect Cattle
Economic Losses
Other
% of Total Responses
Effect of Driest Year in Santarem
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
Dry Pasture
Delay Planting
Diminish Harvest
Increase Fire Susceptible Area
Fire Enter Neighbor's Property
Fire Enter Your Area
Breathing Problems
Traff ic Accidents
Affect Perennial
Affect Cattle
Economic Losses
Other
% of Total Responses
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Accidental Fires in Altamira and Santarem
0
10
20
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year
Rat
e (%
of A
ccid
enta
l Fire
s)
Altamira n=171 farmersSantarem n=271 farmers
Altamira Santarem
Coping with drought (1997/98 ENSO)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
doesn't apply/ wouldn't changemonetary/food reserve forchange cropping strategy
water reserve/build pond orfirebreak
burn laterfarm elsewhere/move away
not burn/ not deforestsell cattle
use greater care in burningtells neighbors/hunters
use of water
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Technology and equipments for Agropastoral activities2000-2001
0%20%40%60%80%100%Hand tools (axe, hoe, etc)Manual planterAnimal medicationMineral saltOrganic fertilizerChain SawPesticidesGeneratorAnimal transportationChemical fertilizerTractorPlow erWagonDouble-plow erFungicidesHerbicidesAnimal traction/soil
(ACT sample 2000-2003)
Adaptive challenges
Family turn over and community transformation
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Breakdown of communities and social groups: Land Aggregation and Fragmentation at a regional level
Fragmentation and community formation
Land Aggregation andCommunity disappearance
Brondizio, Dantona, Siqueira 2006. AAA
Lot turnover since the beginning of settlement
76.323.7Altamira
74.225.8Santarém
65.134.9Porto Acre
More than one ownerContinuousa
Lot occupation (%)Study site
aFarm families who remain on the lots originally assigned by INCRA.
Ludwig, Dantona, Brondizio. (under review World Development)
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Land distribution dynamics across three study sites
0.53340.4214.40.1444.398.1Altamira
0.79402.61370.5367.237.1Santarem
0.3991.693.80.1215.363.5Porto Acre
GiniSt devAverage area per
owner (ha)GiniSt. dev.Average area per
owner (ha)Sites
Survey (2003/2005)Original INCRA settlement
Stage 1: Household Isolation, economic pressure, and social intimidation
(Brondizio, Siqueira, Dantona 2006)
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Stage 2: Demographic decline, social network break down, discontinuity of services, economic isolation
Reaction to change
• Organization around important resources: water and land
• Cooperation around production systems• Multiple levels of political organization
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Small Farmers:Strengthening community identity and Resistance Movements
Alliances with the church and environmental movements
Inter-community organization of Small farmers
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Inter-community associations
Confederation of Community Associations
Community associations
National Forest creation 1974Residents expelled
Logging concessions (ITTO)Community and inter-community Associations
Demarcation of community areas NGO Saude & Alegria
“Traditional” Communities: Phases of conflict and expulsion, organization and assertion of rights, and co-management
National Forest of Tapajos; 25 communities, three municipalities
SNUC and Traditional Population legislationConfederation of resident communities
Pressure to participate on managementReclaiming ethnic identity and land rights
1974 1985 1988 1995 2002
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Individual invest/ Search alternative water supplies
Implications• Memory and oral history
• Landscape connectivity and collective action
• Information and knowledge conflict
• Level of social and human capital
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Memory, uncertainty, and risk
Fragmented memory of past events
Variation with experiences of recovery
Uncertainty of information and future events
Preference for risk [while economics treats people as risk averse, in most cases most individuals tend to be skeptical about low probability and high cost events, uncertainty]
The need to translate concepts of irreversibility; possible close to the initial concept of “tipping points,” thresholds. To what extend drought and accidental fire can be neutralized by good weather later?
Landscape connectivity and collective action
Landscape connectivity and effects of land use system
.Edge and contract between land use systems.Access to transportation routes
.Size of clearing.Micro-topography and susceptibility to flooding
.Soil structure and humidity retention.Micro-climate
.Vegetation phenology.Crop diversity
.Crop resistance to drought
Accidental fire
Requirements for Collective Action
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. Credibility and legitimacy of knowledge and information systems (both way problem)
. Relevance of information to scale of decision making
.Trust and confounding presentation of problems by the media
Technical and Scientific
Local and Experiential
Divergences of Scales (adapted from Cash et al 2006)
-Ignorance: failure to recognize different systems of knowledge
-Mismatch: units of information, physical environment, behavioral environment
-Plurality: diversity of stakeholders and communities
Building trust over Information and knowledge
Some Challenges for Vertical and Horizontal Inter-linkagesVertical inter-linkages
Large scale unplanned ecosystem change[random connectivity]
Emphasis on physical capital
Inconsistency and ephemeral incentives
Trust (lack of) on government agents
Credibility and legitimacy of information
Mismatch of information scale
Unequal distribution of incentives
Horizontal inter-linkages
High level of lot turn over
Constant population movement
Diversity of communities
Different levels of knowledge and experience
Technological dependency
Limited access to incentives
-Decay of extension services since 1990 (“morto vivo”)
-The municipal paradox: decentralized services, minimum tax base
-Missed opportunities of “bolsa familia” (welfare program)
-Unbalanced social capital: associations vs. corruption cartels
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The Paradox of Youth demographics: Possibilities vs an undermined future
IDH - Educacao, 2000
Educacao, Marajo Meso region, 1991-2000 (PNUD 2000)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Afuá (PA)Anajás (PA)Breves (PA)
Cachoeira do Arari (PA)Chaves (PA)
Curralinho (PA)Macapá (AP)Muaná (PA)
Ponta de Pedras (PA)Salvaterra (PA)
Santa Cruz do Arari (PA)Santana (AP)
Soure (PA)São Sebastião da Boa
% 15 anos ou mais com menos de quatro anos de estudo, 2000% 15 anos ou mais com menos de quatro anos de estudo, 1991
Inequality measures and concentration of wealth (1991-2000) for Estuarine municipalities, PNUD, 2003
Concentration of Wealth Estuarine municipalities1991-2000
-10-505
10152025
Estuarine municipalities
Perc
enta
ge
% Difference (1991-2000) of the wealth held by 20% poorest (1991-2001) % Difference (1991-2000) of the wealth held by 20% wealthies (1991-2001)
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1991 2000
20% poorest 3.5 1.640% poorest 10.4 7.460% poorest 21.4 17.780% poorest 39.4 34.920% richest 60.6 65.1
Percentage of Regional Wealth appropriated by different income groupsSantarem-Belterra-Placas region 1991 e 2000
Human Development Atlas, Brazil. PNUD 2003
a. Individuals live and operate in a world of institutions: close link between instrumental freedoms and institutions.
b. Recognize complexity, learn how to deal with complexity: move beyond scales and analysis that are historically decontextualized
c. Rising connectivity as a double edged sword: disturbance spread fast throughout the system, but can also accelerate learning process, as people dealing with problems in one area have the opportunity to learn and exchange experiences with others;
c. Key issue: level of randomness versus a process characterized by co-evolution and mutual adjustment over time; Random connectivity is more likely to give rise to tipping points that trigger system shift and undesirable spread of impact (Gunderson and Holling 2002)
Inter-linked Challenges of adaptation
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What are we looking for?
In what terms “development” is framed?
• Sen’s Theory of Justice
• Transcendental: identifying just social arrangements
– Critical “distance” versus parochialism
• Comparative/Relational: ranking alternative social arrangements
(A. Sen 2006. Theory of Justice. Journal of Philosophy)
Thanks!