The Value and Impact of Long-term Monitoring

Karina J. Nielsen, PhD San Francisco State University Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies Department of Biology

Decisions need to be made about important environmental issues

• Decisions have consequences

• Economy

• Environment

• Quality of life

• Families

High quality, long-term monitoring supports evidence-based decision making

• Reduces uncertainty

• Increases forecasting capacity

• Tracks impacts of policy, other changes

• Enables adaptive management

• Facilitates communication, engagement with broader audiences

Short-term studies are important, but not sufficient

• Seasonal cycle

• Trend?

305

310

315

320

325

330

1958 1959 1960

CO2 (

ppm

)

Year

Atmospheric CO2

Inconsistent monitoring impedes understanding

• Seasonal cycle

• Trend

• Gaps?

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015CO

2 (pp

m)

Year

Atmospheric CO2

High quality, long-term monitoring provides strong evidence

• Seasonal cycle

• Trend

• Persistent

• Convincing 290

310

330

350

370

390

410

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015CO

2 (pp

m)

Year

Atmospheric CO2

Source: R. F. Keeling, S. J. Walker, S. C. Piper and A. F. Bollenbacher Scripps CO2 Program (http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu )

Value and purpose of long-term monitoring questioned, commitment to sustain was key

• Funders

• Scientific community

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/keeling_curve_lessons

Long-term ecological and environmental studies have high value and impact

• Examples of long-term studies

• Scientific value

• Policy value

• Importance, relevance for California

https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/figure/coastal-ecosystem-services

Interagency Ecological Program (http://www.water.ca.gov/iep/)

Consortium of state and federal agencies

Since 1970’s

Researchers: Wim Kimmerer, Peter Moyle, Larry Brown, John Durand, James Hobbs and others

Institution: San Francisco State University, UC Davis, US Geological Survey and others

San Francisco Estuary, delta smelt, multiple stressors

Moyle et al. 2016

Consequences of water diversion flows on delta smelt, Endangered Species Act

• Only some stressors have potential to be managed

• Entrainment loss calculations, different water diversion flows, water years

• Critical evidence for USFWS 2008 ESA-mandated Biological Opinion

• Importance evident in subsequent monitoring, analysis

Kimmerer 2008

Entrainment loss calculation Evidence-based conceptual model

Cosco Buscan oil spill, Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA)

Herring Biomass and Spawning Surveys (https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/)

California Department of Fish and Wildlife

Since 1979

Researchers: John Incardona, Gary Cherr, Katharyn Boyer, and others

Institutions: NOAA, UC Davis, San Francisco State University

Oiled shoreline Historic herring spawning areas NRDA Settlement

SF Bay Herring Biomass Cosco Busan

Oil Spill

Herring data, essential evidence for NRDA settlement, eelgrass restoration ongoing

• 2007-08: spawn mortality was 14-29% • Historic spawning areas from surveys • Spawning biomass surveys • Oil spill overlap • Toxicity, mortality of spawn

• 2008-09: Lowest spawning biomass recorded

• 2009-10: Herring season closed • 2010-11: Spawning biomass

rebounded, fishery re-opened

Sea otters recolonize estuaries

Elkhorn Slough Sea Otter Research (https://www.werc.usgs.gov/)

Data since 1965 (new partnership)

Researchers: Brent Hughes, Ron Eby, Eric Van Dyke, Tim Tinker, Corina Marks, Kenneth Johnson, Kerstin Wasson and others

Institutions: University of California-Santa Cruz, Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, U.S. Geological Survey, CSU Monterey Bay, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

Sea otters benefit eelgrass, mitigating impacts of nutrient loading

• Recovery of top predators results in trophic cascade

• Eelgrass rebounds, despite

increasing nutrient loading

Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (http://accessoceans.org/)

Since 2004

Researchers: Andrea Dransfield, Ellen Hines, Jaime Jahncke and others

Institutions: San Francisco State University, Point Blue, Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary, Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary and others

Northern & Central California National Marine Sanctuaries, SF Bay Shipping Lanes

Ship traffic Humpback habitat use

Understanding the consequences of policy changes: new shipping lanes, endangered humpback whales

2013 - new shipping lanes (USCG) • 69% reduction in vessel traffic footprint

within sanctuaries

• 76% reduction in overlap with highly used habitat

• Vessel traffic may be more concentrated

Pre-2013 Post-2013

Long-term monitoring addresses something people need to know

(Lindenmeyer & Likens 2009)

Attributes of useful & sustainable long-term monitoring programs are known

• Purpose (question/hypothesis)

• Both basic AND applied purposes

• Integrity of time series is maintained

• Consistency/quality of data collection

• Adaptability

• Rigorous, detailed documentation

• Data management & dissemination

• Inclusive participation by scientific community, others

• Management & governance structure

• Rigorous funding structure

• Educational component

(Hughes et al. 2017)

Stagnation of National Science Foundation funding threatens availability of long-term monitoring data

• Existing programs more precarious

• Fewer new programs being started

(Hughes et al. 2017)

Long-term monitoring addresses coastal & ocean issues important to California

Climate Change

Fisheries Management

Pollution

Marine Protected Areas Network

Emerging Issues