the use of selected species in landscape planning and...

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THE USE OF SELECTED SPECIES IN LANDSCAPE PLANNING AND RESTORATION OF THE ATLANTIC FOREST, BRAZIL

Laury Cullen Jr., Alexandre Uezu, Cristiana Saddy Martins, and Claudio Benedito Valladares Padua

INTRODUC T ION

Successful and effective strategies for biodiversity conservation must meet the needs of wildlife and people in biologically functioning and increasingly human- dominated landscapes. Isolated protected areas have had an increasing impact in protect-ing elements of biodiversity that promotes nature conservation (Redford and Richter 1999; Redford et al. 2006; Leroux and Kerr 2013). Within these landscapes, the need for strictly protected areas with suitable habitat patches has been increasing emphasized for an array of species and components (Salazar et al. 2013). However, few systematic meth-ods have been proposed to help in mapping and de-signing a conservation landscape.

In designing a protected area or a protected area network (a regional system of protected areas), conservationists generally use some combina-tion of three approaches: (1) mapping special ele-ments (i.e., sites of high value such as wilderness areas, road- less areas, and location of rare species); (2) seeking representation (i.e., including all habitat

types in a region as a “coarse filter” approach to protecting biodiversity); and (3) evaluating the requirements of selected focal species (Sanderson et al. 2002; Coppolillo et al. 2004; Beier et al. 2011). Because it is impossible to inventory every species in an ecosystem, scientists usually concentrate on a few key species. The use of selected species as a basis for site- based conservation has been widely used for designing landscape conservation. For example, Lambeck (1997) presents a multi- species approach for defining the attributes required to meet the needs of the biota in a landscape and the manage-ment regimes that should be applied. His approach builds on the concept of umbrella species, whose re-quirements are believed to encapsulate the needs of other species. It identifies a suite of “focal species,” each of which is used to define different spatial and compositional attributes that must be present in a landscape and their appropriate management regimes. Miller et al. (1999) presented some con-cepts for using focal species in conservation action. They discuss the approach of focal species in plan-ning a reserve network and define focal species as

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Restoration of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest 41

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“organisms used in planning and managing nature reserves because their requirements for survival represent important factors in maintaining ecologi-cally healthy conditions.” A suite of landscape spe-cies may be selected depending on resources, lead-ing to multiple, often overlapping focal species.

Based on this approach, a combination of three studies where birds, jaguars (Panthera onca), and the endangered black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) are presented on how they can be used for defining suitable habitat patches for species con-servation and site conservation planning in the frag-mented Atlantic forests of the interior, state of São Paulo, Brazil. For birds, analyses were conducted for sensitive species. Based on the linear models gener-ated by the relation between the richness of sensi-tive species and the landscape parameters from 1978 and 2003, past and recent ones (Uezu and Metzger 2007), the number of sensitive species were esti-mated in all forest patches in the study region, in-dicating patches according to their priority of con-servation, assisting to set a management plan for the conservation of biodiversity in the region.

For jaguars the “landscape detective” approach was developed which is closely related to other focal species focused conservation planning techniques such as umbrella, keystone, and f lagship species (Lambeck 1997; Caro and O’Doherty 1999; Miller et al. 1999; Sanderson et al. 2002). The landscape de-tective approach has certain special features. First, it was developed for jaguar populations that still remain in highly fragmented habitats. Central in this approach is to use the jaguar to detect core areas and isolated patches and stepping- stone habitats for landscape restoration and metapopulation conserva-tion. Other approaches such as the umbrella species do not seem to relate specifically to enhancing con-nectivity, linkages, and defining specific lands and areas for restoration. Also, the landscape detective is more species- intrinsic in that the species- habitat relationship is the central point to this approach. In the landscape detective approach, species- habitat re-quirements provided by habitat selection analysis are used to build a habitat suitability function to define the landscape in which conservation must occur.

The endangered black lion tamarin was also used as a focal species for landscape planning. The work with this critically endangered primate focused on the species biological studies and its

habitat. It generated sufficient information to run stochastic models that led to the creation of con-servation scenarios for the species, combining wild population parameters with habitat availability and captive bred animals, all of which were merged into a metapopulation management plan (Valladares- Padua et al. 2002).

Finally, it is demonstrated how the integration of studies with species are helping to develop and to im-plement an agroforestry community- based program to restore potential wildlife corridors, improving landscape management and protected area networks in the Atlantic forest. Also, how a combination of species conservation and landscape restoration re-search can be used to create “informal” public poli-cies that results in an appropriate regional landscape that is good both for biodiversity and humans.

STUDY SI TE: THE PONTAL DO PARANAPANEMA

The Pontal do Paranapanema region is a wedge- shaped region bounded on the north by the Parana River and on the south by the Paranapanema River, forming the westernmost extremity of the state of São Paulo, Brazil (22°30′S, 52°20′W) (fig. 4.1).

Entirely forested, the region was decreed a protected area in 1942 by the state of São Paulo, the “Grande Reserva do Pontal,” with about 2,600 km2 (Leite 1998). Despite the protected status, the Pontal has suffered from numerous conf licts over landownership, resulting in the widespread de-struction of its forests for timber and cattle pasture during the past 50 years. In the mid- 1990s, with pres-sure for land redistribution from the Landless Rural Workers’ Movement (Movimento dos Trabalhadores Sem Terra, MST) and other groups, many such properties were first occupied by MST affiliates. These lands were later expropriated for public land reform settlements, dramatically increasing the density of human occupation around the remaining Atlantic forest fragments.

Today all that remains of the “Grande Reserva” is the 36,000 ha Morro do Diabo State Park; the 6,000 ha Black Lion Tamarin Ecological Station; and about 16,000 ha of scattered patches which range in size from one to 2,000 ha. The Morro do Diabo State Park is well protected with legally demarcated,


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nondisputed boundaries. It is the last significant remnant of Atlantic forest in the west of São Paulo state, where only 1.8% of the original natural vegeta-tion remains. Because of this extensive loss of forest, the conservation of the Morro do Diabo State Park, the Ecological Station, and other widely scattered, smaller, forest remnants is of utmost importance, as they still harbor the rich and endemic biodiversity

of the region, and many of its endangered species, such as the jaguar and the black lion tamarin.

The Pontal do Paranapanema forests are con-sidered a transitional ecosystem, bordered by tropical evergreen broadleaf forest to the east, which originally covered the Atlantic coast-line, and the dry cerrado vegetation to the north and west (Ab’Saber 1977). The Pontal region is

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Figure 4.1 The Pontal do Paranapanema and the remaining forest fragments. The large patch is the Morro do Diabo State ParkSource: Uezu 2007.



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characterized by a pronounced dry season with annual precipitation averaging 1,370 mm, of which about 30% falls between April and September (Valladares- Padua 1987, 1993). Most of the emer-gent trees lose their leaves during the dry months (Hueck 1972). The region is also known for its generally nutrient- poor sand soils (Setzer 1949).

For the jaguar study, the Upper Parana River region was considered as the study area. This region strategically connects the Morro do Diabo State Park to other large protected areas along the Parana River, including the Iguaçu National Park in Brazil and Argentina (fig. 4.2). These core areas form the basis of the Upper Parana Atlantic

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Figure 4.2 Some important protected areas along the Upper and the Lower Parana River Ecoregion. Morro do Diabo State Park (25), Ivinhema State Park (24), Ilha Grande National Park (29), and Iguaçu National Park in Brazil and Argentina (30). Jaguar metapopulation dynamics were modeled within an area of approximately 50,000 km2 of the Upper Parana region, covering the range of 50 km on each side of the Parana and Paranapanema Rivers and from the town of Teodoro Sampaio (22 31′36″ S, 52 10′09″ W) to the town of Santa Terezinha de Itaipu (25 21′36″ S, 54 28′36″ W) in BrazilSource: Di Bitetti et al. 2003.



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Rainforest Biodiversity Vision, a large- scale land-scape conservation plan developed by the World Wildlife Fund (Di Bitetti et al. 2003).

Together, the Pontal and the Upper Parana River region are appropriate landscapes to use selected species in landscape planning and restoration. The ongoing destruction of the Atlantic forests is confining remaining wildlife populations into net-works of small patches of suitable habitat. Thus, a reliable method of determining the requirements for effective landscape biodiversity conservation needs to be developed that includes metapopulation and persistence of key species.

METHODOLOGY

Sensitive Birds as Focal Species

In designing a bird conservation strategy, the rich-ness of sensitive bird species was calculated in forest patches based on a survey using the point count methodology (Blondel et al. 1970). We defined sen-sitive bird categories according to their responses to habitat fragmentation. It includes species which occur only in the control areas or in large patches, or those that decrease in abundance in smaller patches (Uezu 2007). Survey efforts were concentrated in 28 areas: 21 forest patches and 7 areas inside the control continuous forest. To ensure a wide range of size, that represents the entire set of remnants, which are relevant for bird conservation in the region, seven large patches (400– 1,500 ha), seven medium (100– 200 ha), and seven small ones (30– 80 ha) were selected. Landscape parameters, patch size, and degree of proximity (AREA and PROX, respectively), from three different years (1965, 1978, and 2003) were used as explanatory variables to the variation of sensitive bird richness in nine differ-ent models (Uezu and Metzger 2007). Using AIC (Alkaike Information Coefficient), it was verified that the model which combined patch size (AREA) and degree of isolation (PROX) of 1978 presented the highest probability of being selected, present-ing a high coefficient of correlation (R2

adj. = 0.83). Therefore the parameters of this model were used to predict the richness of sensitive species in all large forest patches (> 300 ha) in the Pontal do Paranapanema region. The model parameters used are:

Number of sensitive birds = 14.357 + 2.716 * AREA + 0.4− [ ] 440 * PROX .[ ]

Because losses are more immediate and the time lag is less likely to occur in smaller remnants (Uezu 2007), to estimate the number of sensitive species in patches smaller than 300 ha, the model used was the one which comprise only the patch size (AREA) of 2003, the most recent year analyzed:

Number of sensitive birds = 13.073 + 4.4231 * AREA .− [ ]

To verify the consistence of the multiple regression linear model, related to the period of 1978, we cor-related, using Pearson’s correlation, the observed richness of sensitive bird species in 21 forest patches and in the control site, with the richness estimated for the same set of patches using this model.

Jaguars as Landscape Detectives

The spatial structure of the jaguar metapopula-tion in the Upper Parana Region was based on habitat data. This link between habitat data and the metapopulation model was made possible by the Spatial Data program built in R AMAS GIS soft-ware (Akçakaya 2005). The program used spatial data on habitat requirements of the species, such as GIS- generated maps of land cover and combin-ing these data into a map of Habitat Suitability (HS) with a habitat function. This map was then used to find habitat patches by identifying areas of high HS, where the jaguar population might exist and still survive (Cullen 2007). Topographic map layers and habitat categories mainly included those most likely to explain jaguar habitat patches and popu-lation spatial distribution (table 4.1). These maps were classified from LandSat Images using super-vised classification (with ground truth) of the three Landsat 7ETM satellite images that covered the Upper Parana River region. The analysis was done with Erdas Imagine 8.4 and Arcview 3.3/ Spatial Analyst. The term habitat was used to describe a layer of proportions of a habitat class as defined by vegetation type or other classifying factors used by, or available to, an animal. Each habitat composition summed to 100%. Errors in assigning an individual



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radiolocation to a particular habitat class assumed that a jaguar used all habitats within a 100 m radius of a radiolocation in proportion to the area of that habitat within the circle. In total, 11 adult jaguars were tracked with VHF and GPS collars from 2001 to 2005.

Habitat Selection

Habitat selection was determined as the dis-tribution of all independent jaguar locations in each habitat type in relation to the habitat availability during the study period. Habitat selectivity was then defined by compar-ing availability (A) and utilization (U), using Ivlev’s (1961) index of selectivity = (U – A)/ (U + A). The link between the habitat map and the jaguar metapopulation was characterized by two parameters. First, a threshold habitat suitabil-ity HS was set as the minimum habitat suitability value below which the habitat is not suitable for re-production and/ or survival. Based on jaguar loca-tions along the entire Upper Parana basin, a value of 1.2 was used as the threshold HS (Cullen 2007). The proportion of the study area with threshold HS at or above 1.2 is 9.1%. Thus, this represents a

conservative or a precautionary value, because only a small portion of the landscape was assumed to be suitable. Second, neighborhood distance was used to identify nearby grid cells that belong to the same patch (i.e., subpopulation) and may represent the mean foraging distance of the species or the size of the home range. Based on the average home range area of 115.9 km2 ± 42.6 km2 the diameter of a circle shaped home range was calculated as 40 to 53 cells (1 cell = 300 m). The more conservative value of 40 cells or 12 km was used. Based on the habi-tat map and these two parameters, R AMAS GIS (Akçakaya 2005) identified the patch structure, which includes the size and location of habitat patches. Each patch supports one subpopulation of the metapopulation. This method of patch identi-fication has been previously described (Akçakaya et al. 1995; Akçakaya 2000). This analysis resulted in three populations, in which population one was the Morro do Diabo population.

Black Lion Tamarin Metapopulation

The black lion tamarin population occurred as a metapopulation dynamic in the study region (Valladares- Padua 1993). To model the probability

Table 4.1 Habitat availability, use, and selection by jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Upper Parana Region, Brazil, 2007

Habitat Type Symbol (A) Availability Proportion in the Study Site (%)

(U) Use: Proportion of Jaguar Locations (%)

Ivlev’s Index of Selectivity

Water water 6.997 4.104 −0.26057Primary

forestprimfor 5.239 13.841 0.45087

Secondary forest

secfor 2.605 5.153 0.32848

Alluvial forest

aluv 0.970 1.025 0.02754

Dense marshland

dense-marsh

4.977 10.045 0.33734

Open marshland

openmarsh 11.013 25.695 0.39995

Agriculture agric 17.208 17.921 0.02030Pasture pasture 50.991 22.216 −0.39307



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of extinction of the known black lion tamarin sub-populations and the need for population manage-ment, simulations were run for each known sub-population using Vortex software (Lacy 1993) and each of these subpopulations was considered an isolated subpopulation and modeled for a period of 100 years; each simulation was repeated 1,000 times. In the same fashion a simulation was run for the metapopulation (all subpopulations combined). Both the probability of extinction and the expected heterozygosity were tracked over time. When a population size dropped to zero, it was counted as an extinction event during that year. The prob-ability of extinction was calculated to be the aver-age extinction rate over all simulations. Expected heterozygosity was calculated by monitoring allele frequencies over time in each subpopulation as well as in the metapopulation. The models were based mainly on data collected on the ecology and conser-vation biology of the black lion tamarins over seven years (Valladares- Padua 1993).

RESULTS


The estimated richness of sensitive birds presents a great variation throughout the forest remnants in the region. Large patches (> 300 ha), which substantially decreased in size from 1978 to 2003, have the highest estimates of the richness of sensitive birds (fig. 4.3), whereas those large patches, which had already a sim-ilar size in 1978 compared with 2003, had medium es-timates of bird richness. For the medium- sized patch (100– 200 ha), a medium level of bird richness was also estimated, independently, whether they were larger in 1978 or not. Small patches (< 100 ha), presented the lowest estimates of bird richness, regardless their size in 1978. The observed and the estimated richness of sensitive bird species in the sampled patches present a high correlation (R Pearson = 0.918, fig. 4.4), support-ing that the selected model generated a good estimate of richness of sensitive birds, at least within the range of the sampled patch size.

Sensitive species estimation (n)0 - 7

Rivers

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Figure 4.3 Estimation of the richness of sensitive bird species in forest patches in the Pontal do Paranapanema region, southeastern Brazil. Darker gray indicates priority areas for landscape management. The letters indicate the sampled patches: control area (Morro do Diabo State Park) (C), large patches (L), medium patches (M), and small patches (S)Source: Uezu 2007.



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Figure 4.4 Significant relationship between the esti-mated and observed sensitive bird species in the surveyed patches, Pontal do Paranapanema, southeastern BrazilSource: Uezu 2007.

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Figure 4.5 Habitat Suitability Map in the Upper Paraná region. Values for habitat suitability are represented in the scale below, with HS values ranging from −7.0 (least suitable) to 6.0 (most suitable). Jaguar metapopulation dynamics were modeled within an area of approximately 50,000 km2 of the Upper Paraná region, covering the range of 50 km on each side of the Paraná and Paranapanema Rivers


Habitat selection was evaluated at gross scales that pro-vide a broad view of habitat requirements, and whether jaguar use of habitat categories occurred in proportion to their availability in the study site (table 4.1).

Based on these results, we defined (HS) as:

0.00203 * agric + 0.00275 * aluv+ 0.03373 * densemarsh + 0.0400

[ ] [ ][ ] 00 * openmarsh

0.03931 * pasture + 0.04509 * primfor+ 0.03285

[ ][ ] [ ]−

** secfor 0.02606 * water[ ] [ ]−

The symbols within brackets refer to map layers (table 4.1). All map layers were based on the same vegetation map. Each cell of a layer gives the propor-tion of one habitat type in a grid cell of 300 by 300 m. This HS function determines the suitability of a location given various input maps describing envi-ronmental variables. In other words, it attempts to identify habitat patches (or subpopulations) from the jaguars’ point of view. This function is used to calculate the HS for each location (cell) in the map.

The model produced the habitat map (fig. 4.5) and a metapopulation structure with three subpop-ulations of suitable cells within the neighborhood distance of each other (fig. 4.6). These patches cov-ered a total area of 4,105 km2 and had a total carry-ing capacity of 126 individuals (table 4.2). The patch structure was realistic considering the remaining



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habitat, known jaguar occurrences and the loca-tion of some protected areas in the Upper Paraná- Paranapanema region.

The largest patch for population 2 had an area of 2,224 km2 and comprised the Ivinhema region and a large area to the south toward the Ilha Grande National Park, where considerable

numbers of jaguars are known to occur. This patch made up about 54% of the total area of all patches combined and had a carrying capacity of 64 indi-viduals. The three suitable patches covered only 3.39% of the total landscape analyzed, a very small area considering the area requirements of jaguars. Patches have gaps between them, which represent

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Figure 4.6 Patch structure of jaguar subpopulations identified by the model in the Upper Paraná region. Each gray tone indicates one habitat patch identified by the program. Patch 1 corresponds to the Morro do Diabo region in São Paulo state (Brazil). Patch 2 corresponds to the Ivinhema region in Mato Grosso do Sul state and Ilha Grande National Park region in Paraná state, both in Brazil. Patch 3 corresponds to jaguar subpopulations in eastern Paraguay along the Paraná River, and more specifically to the states of Canindeyú (Salto de Guairá) and Alto Paraná (Ciudade del Este), comprising an area with a series of protected areas such as Refugio Biológico Carapá, Reserva Natural Privada Itabo, Reserva Natural Privada Morombi, Reserva Biológica Mbaracayú, Reserva Biológica Pikyry, Refugio Biológico Tati Yupi, Reserva Biológica Itabo, and Reserva Biológica Limoy



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unsuitable locations relative to jaguar habitat re-quirements and foraging distance. Major gaps occur between the Morro do Diabo Region (popu-lation 1) and the Ivinhema State Park (population 2) and again, between Ivinhema and the southern populations identified in Eastern Paraguay along the Paraná River (population 3). However, no gaps were identified between the Ivinhema and the Ilha Grande National Park. The landscape between these two protected areas appeared suit-able for jaguars to establish their home ranges and dispersal when the species habitat requirements and foraging distance were considered. Landscape gaps identified between the three subpopula-tions might affect landscape connectivity and dispersal between them. The HS map has great potential to be used to identify stepping- stone corridors. These are cells with high suitability value outside the patches identified and can link

jaguar subpopulations. They can also contribute to the design and restoration of an interconnected landscape.

Each gray tone indicates one habitat patch iden-tified by the program. Patch 1 corresponds to the Morro do Diabo region in São Paulo state. Patch 2 corresponds to the Ivinhema region in Mato Grosso do Sul state and Ilha Grande National Park region in Parana state. Patch 3 corresponds to jaguar subpopulations in eastern Paraguay along the Parana River, and more specifically to the states of Canindeyu (Salto de Guaira) and Alto Parana (Ciudade del Este), comprising an area with a series of protected areas such as Refugio Biológico Carapá, Reserva Natural Privada Itabo, Reserva Natural Privada Morombi, Reserva Biológica Mbaracayu, Reserva Biológica Pikyry, Refugio Biológico Tati Yupi, Reserv Biológica Itabo, and Reserva Biológica Limoy.

Table 4.2 Results of patch identification where total habitat suitability (HS) is the total value of the habitat suitability values (as described in table 4.1 and given in figure 4.5) in all cells included in a patch, Brazil, 2007

Patch Number

Population Namea Total HS Area (km2)

Area as Patches %

Landscape % Carrying Capacity

(K)1 Morro do Diabo State Park

Region (São Paulo state)15,617 409 9.97 0.84 18

2 Ivinhema State Park Region (Mato Grosso do Sul state) and Ilha Grande National Park Region (Parana state)

55,422 2,224 54.57 1.34 64

3 Eastern Paraguay along the Parana River, and more specifically to the states of Canindeyú (Salto del Guairá) and Alto Paraná (Ciudad del Este)b

38,404 1,472 35.86 1.22 44

Total 109,443 4,105 100 3.39 126

a Including areas in the mosaic surrounding the current protected areas.b Comprising an area with a series of protected areas such as Refugio Biológico Carapá, Reserva Natural Privada Itabo, Reserva Natural Privada Morombi, Reserva Biológica Mbaracayú, Reserva Biológica Pikyry, Refugio Biológico Tati Yupi, Reserva Biológica Itabo and Reserva Biológica Limoy



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Black Lion Tamarin Metapopulation Conservation

The model used simple life- table calculations to estimate the population growth rates and genera-tion lengths that are be used in the simulations. Extinction rates in all modeled subpopulations failed to meet the minimum tolerance criteria of 2% probability of extinction in 100 years (table 4.3). When isolated, the four smaller populations (those outside of Morro do Diabo State Park) have low or negative growth rates, high probability of extinction and become highly inbred. Corridors were modeled using dispersal among populations for tamarins of both sexes from three to six years, with 50% mortal-ity occurring during dispersal. The results of this modeling shows that at the level of connectivity, the creation of corridors has a significant effect on the viability of the four smaller populations, with little negative impact upon black lion tamarins inhabit-ing the Morro do Diabo Park. This means that all four local populations have essentially no risk of ex-tinction when they have a chance to be integrated, and they are able to maintain population sizes near carrying capacity with levels of gene diversity above 90% (Valladares- Padua 1993).

DISCUSSION


The knowledge about the past landscape structure was useful to evaluate more precisely how the bio-diversity is distributed throughout the studied land-scape, especially regarding the sensitive species. The analysis of the past landscape parameters also dem-onstrated that the largest patches cannot hold the current diversity in the long term, resulting in a high number of species likely to become extinct in the near future (Tilman et al. 1994). The results of this work also indicate that to avoid these future losses it is necessary to increase the forested area available for those sensitive species. This can be done carry-ing out two different types of landscape manage-ment: increasing the size of the large forest patches to a similar extension of those in 1978 or implement-ing corridors among these areas, increasing the land-scape connectivity and giving the species access to several patches. The logistical and financial factors favor the second option. For the first option to be ef-fective very large areas should be restored to comple-ment the size of the larger remnants.

In order to recover all the forested area lost in the last 25 years regarding the six largest patches

Table 4.3 Simulation results for black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) scenarios over 100 years, São Paulo, Brazil, 1993

Population Scenario PE N GD MTEMetapopulation Isolated 0.000 1,090 0.986

Corridors 0.000 1,116 0.985Morro do Diabo Isolated 0.000 1,067 0.985

Corridors 0.000 1,004 0.985Tucano Isolated 0.446 14 0.608 68

Corridors 0.000 45 0.952Ponte Branca Isolated 0.544 9 0.569 62

Corridors 0.000 38 0.934Santa Maria Isolated 1.000 — 0.914 24

Corridors 0.000 15 — Santa Monica Isolated 1.000 — 0.901 22

Corridors 0.006 14 — 56

Note: PE = probability of extinction; N = mean population size; GD = gene diversity; MTE = mean time to extinction in years.



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in the region, it would be necessary to implement more than 7,000 ha of forest, and approximately the same extension these remnants cover today. On the other hand, with a smaller effort, the implantation of corridors connecting the larger patches would increase many times the forested area available for the sensitive species, especially if these connections encompass the Morro do Diabo State Park, with 37,000 ha (fig. 4.2). However for the corridors to be functional for these particular species, they must be wide enough to include interior forest habitat, as many of them are edge sensitive. Alternatively, the matrix surrounding the corridors could be managed, changed by a less resistant culture, what could favor the landscape connectivity and decrease the edge effect along the corridor (Mesquita et al. 1999). Studies showed that the efficiency of stepping stones and corridors are regulated by the matrix permeability and are species- dependent (Baum et al. 2004). This study highlights the importance of using information about the history of the land-scape modification to set priority areas for conser-vation. If no management is conducted to revert, at least partially, the fragmentation process in the region, several losses might occur, as it happened in other Atlantic forest regions (Christiensen and Pitter 1997; Ribon et al. 2003).


The threats, ecology and distribution, and manage-ment options of the jaguars in the Upper Parana River Corridor necessitate the use of models to evaluate options for their conservation and man-agement. The results of spatial distribution of jag-uars in this region, and their dispersal ecology and demography suggested a metapopulation struc-ture, with distinct but interacting local subpopula-tions inhabiting relatively suitable habitat patches separated by less suitable areas. The jaguars in this region are threatened by several factors, including habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, road mortality, and mortality resulting from their interaction with livestock (Crawshaw et al. 2004; Cullen et al. 2005, 2013). Each of these factors affects a different aspect of the jaguar metapopulation. There are also several possible types of management actions that may ben-efit these populations, including habitat protection, increasing connectivity, decreasing road mortality,

and habitat enhancement and restoration (Eizirik et al. 2002; Cullen et al. 2005). To evaluate the ef-fectiveness of such a diverse set of management options requires a method that can integrate dif-ferent types of information into a single assessment framework. It also needs to incorporate a variety of factors and the interactions for a population under several threats, and a fragmented distribution in the landscape. One of the most important strengths of the landscape detective model is the integration of information and in particular the integration of the metapopulation models.

In the Upper Parana Region, the time is criti-cal for protecting land areas under a plan that will ensure habitat contiguity with future land develop-ment. The jaguar in the Upper Parana ecosystem represents an endangered population and isolated from the Pantanal and the Coastal Atlantic forests. The distribution of jaguars ref lects relative habitat conditions along a human- impacted landscape of im-portance to wildlife conservation. This study identi-fied three large suitable patches for jaguar conserva-tion, which together were about 4,100 km2 in area or equivalent to 8% of the potential habitat in the study area. These large patches represent core areas for jag-uars in the region and they should be proposed for protected- area management, which may include a combination of different land uses such as intensive use areas, buffer zones or intermediate use areas, and some strictly protected areas that could be linked by wildlife corridors and other suitable areas identified by this model. The suitability map also helped in identifying landscape gaps or strategic transit ref-uges or stepping stones for dispersing jaguars that could improve the dispersal potential of corridors. This information will lead to recommendations for corridor restoration in a human- dominated land-scape for jaguar conservation (Cullen 2007).

Black Lion Tamarin Metapopulation Conservation

The results of the Vortex model suggest that if treated individually, black lion tamarin subpopu-lations, with the exception of the Morro do Diabo, have more than 50% chances of going extinct in the next 100 years. Even the Morro do Diabo subpopu-lation, with its comparatively large size, does not meet the survival criteria established for the species.



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These results call for immediate action to manage the subpopulations in order to obtain a minimum viable size. Their ability to survive in different habitats, their recently discovered sub-populations, and their ecological f lexibility leads to the conclusion that black lion tamarins will probably respond well to metapopulation man-agement procedures. This is, of course, a major shift from the total extinction prediction during the 1970s (Coimbra- Filho 1970) or from the esti-mated 100 individuals on the verge of extinction in the wild during the 1980s (Coimbra- Filho and Mittermeier 1977). While the modeling results are pretty straightforward, the conclusions herein are based on a comprehensive interpretation of the results. The model is simple, the data are the best available though sometimes scarce, and the involved biological and ecological processes are so complex that there is no way to rely completely on the extinction probabilities of black lion tamarins. But despite the comprehensive interpretation of the results and the many assumptions in modeling, they certainly show that a managed total metapop-ulation is more secure than the subpopulations in isolation.

INFLUENCING POL IC Y AND L ANDSCAPE MANAGEMENT

In 1997, after more than 10 years of conservation research in this region, IPÊ’s scientists could un-derstand the importance of landscape planning for effective conservation of biodiversity and as an essential way to save species and their habi-tats. Research results had suggested the need of protecting the remaining forest fragments, the implementation of biological corridors, and the creation of buffer zones for the fragments. The use of agroforestry to create buffer zones to protect the surviving forest fragments and forest restoration to connect them in a landscape forest network is rescuing, in some ways, the Great Reserve of the Pontal (Valladares- Padua et al. 1997), the original protected area of the 1940s.

Although the plan has the support of many regional stakeholders, including leaders of the Landless Movement, government officials, and even some large landowners, it would be difficult to

be implemented if it did not become a public policy. The solution came with the help of the state and fed-eral Public Attorney’s offices in the region (Cullen et al. 2005), as these agencies have been supporting the overall idea of planning where efforts are to be made for conservation and forest restoration. This has been of critical importance, as in Southeastern Brazil it is mandatory by law to conserve 20% of all rural properties (called legal reserve). The law, however, is not strictly enforced and as a result many properties lack natural coverage. To become legal, landowners need to replant legal reserve in their properties, to either tell the authorities where in their properties the forest reserve is located or where it will be restored. Traditionally, land author-ities accept the reserve position proposed by the landowner, but in the Pontal do Paranapanema this is no longer the case. A “consented public policy” is in place due to a memorandum of understanding that was signed in 2005 by the majority of the deci-sion makers in the region. As an addendum to the memorandum, a restoration map was created using the legal reserves and gallery forests to form forest corridors reconnecting all forest fragments in the region.

In the last 20 years, IPÊ’s landscape conser-vation program has demonstrated high rates of success in working with small landowners in the development of agroforestry buffer zones, cor-ridors, and stepping- stones, and in inf luencing policy through the use of scientific studies. These studies are the basis for a conservation plan for the region that aims at better protecting not only the forest fragments but will also contributing to species survival through the reforestation of corridors vital for species movement (Uezu and Cullen 2012).

Policy recommendations have been based on the biological research, and in many instances, measures have been adopted by the government (Valladares- Padua et al. 2002). For example, IPÊ successfully lobbied for the creation of a buffer zone around forest fragments when new settlers are given land, corridors, and legal reserves. The scientists at IPÊ have also inf luenced the creation of a 6,600 ha new protected area, the Black Lion Tamarin Ecological Station, based on biological surveys of the region. Also, a main forest cor-ridor is been established to connect the Morro



53

do Diabo State Park and the Ecological Station (fig. 4.7).

Ultimately, the fate of biodiversity in the Pontal do Paranapanema and the Atlantic forest within relatively small forest fragments, isolated parks, and reserves remain in the hands of the people that live around these areas and coexist with these species. However, it is the responsibility of man-aging agencies to resolve local conf licts that are inevitable in the interface between the natural and the human- modified worlds. Only through the in-tegration of applied research, implementation of management recommendations derived from these findings, involvement of NGOs and universities, co- management of protected areas, participation of local people through the community- based land-scape restoration program, agroforestry extension and environmental education programs, and ap-propriate policies will the species have a chance to survive.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The research presented was funded by grants from The Liz Claiborne Art Ortenberg Foundation, Wildlife Trust, The Conservation, Food and Health Foundation, FAPESP (The State of São Paulo Research Foundation, process no. 02/ 01746- 1). Restoration programs underway are currently funded by the BNDES Brazil, Natura, Duke Energy, Cesp, Funbio, The Whitley Fund for Nature, and The Center for Economy, Environment and Society at Columbia University, New York.

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RiversPermanent protected areasFarms

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0 5 10 20 kmUrban areasSmall properties

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Figure 4.7 The light gray bands in figure 4.7 indicate the landscape connectivity planning with agroforestry and forest corridors areas established. Dark gray are forest fragments and protected areas remaining. White parcels are private- owned properties. In the center, the Morro do Diabo State Park



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