The US The US Presidency and Presidency and

American American Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

The Most Powerful The Most Powerful Job on EarthJob on Earth

Presidential Presidential PowersPowers

Article 2, Section 1:Article 2, Section 1: Executive Power in a Prez Executive Power in a Prez

and VP for 4 yearsand VP for 4 years Article 2, Section 2:Article 2, Section 2:

Commander-in-ChiefCommander-in-Chief PardonsPardons Make treatiesMake treaties Nominate and appoint and Nominate and appoint and

fill vacanciesfill vacancies

Presidential Presidential PowersPowers

Article 2, Section 3:Article 2, Section 3: Information on State of the Information on State of the

UnionUnion Convene Special Convene Special

Congressional SessionsCongressional Sessions Receive Foreign Receive Foreign

ambassadorsambassadors Article 2, Section 4:Article 2, Section 4:

Removed by Impeachment Removed by Impeachment for treason, bribery, high for treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanorscrimes and misdemeanors

Presidential Presidential PowersPowers

20th Amendment:20th Amendment: Changed term to begin Changed term to begin

January 20January 20 22nd Amendment:22nd Amendment:

2 terms2 terms 25th Amendment:25th Amendment:

Presidential succession and Presidential succession and disabilitydisability

Presidential Presidential ExpectationsExpectations

Chief of StateChief of State Chief ExecutiveChief Executive Commander-in-ChiefCommander-in-Chief Chief DiplomatChief Diplomat Chief LegislatorChief Legislator Party ChiefParty Chief Voice of the peopleVoice of the people Protector of the PeaceProtector of the Peace Manager of the ProsperityManager of the Prosperity World leaderWorld leader

ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!

Presidential Presidential LimitationsLimitations

CongressCongress CourtsCourts BureaucracyBureaucracy FederalismFederalism CapitalismCapitalism PublicPublic TimeTime Outside ForcesOutside Forces

Evolution of the Evolution of the PresidencyPresidency

Traditional “Do Nothing” Traditional “Do Nothing” PresidencyPresidency

““Modern Presidency”Modern Presidency” greater formal and informal greater formal and informal

powers for initiativepowers for initiative increased staff and advisory increased staff and advisory

capacitycapacity Brownlow Commission Report Brownlow Commission Report

(1937)(1937) EOP (1939)EOP (1939)

agenda setteragenda setter most visible national actormost visible national actor

Presidential Presidential LeadershipLeadership

No-Win Presidency?No-Win Presidency? Lead by Command or by Lead by Command or by

Persuasion?Persuasion? The President’s HelpersThe President’s Helpers The One, The Few, or The The One, The Few, or The

Many?Many?

Advising the Advising the PresidentPresident

The Good, The Bad, The Good, The Bad, and the Uglyand the Ugly

The Good: Brent The Good: Brent Scowcroft (?)Scowcroft (?)

NSA to Ford NSA to Ford and “41”and “41”

General, General, USAF (ret.)USAF (ret.)

PhD PhD ColumbiaColumbia

(pic courtesy (pic courtesy www.scowcroft.com)www.scowcroft.com)

The Bad: John M. The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!)Poindexter (!)

NSA to Reagan NSA to Reagan ’85-86’85-86

Vice Admiral, Vice Admiral, USN (ret.)USN (ret.)

convicted in convicted in 1990 of 1990 of conspiracy, conspiracy, obstruction of obstruction of justice, and justice, and destruction of destruction of evidence in evidence in connection with connection with the Iran-Contra the Iran-Contra affairaffair

Overturned on Overturned on appealappeal

(Don Rypka-AFP)(Don Rypka-AFP)

The Ugly: You The Ugly: You pick…pick…

The “First”The “First”

McGeorge McGeorge BundyBundy

JFK and LBJ, JFK and LBJ, 1961-19661961-1966

Harvard’s Harvard’s Dean of the Dean of the Faculty at 34Faculty at 34

1919-19961919-1996

The CurrentThe Current Stephen J. HadleyStephen J. Hadley Rice’s DeputyRice’s Deputy CIA called him CIA called him

twice to waive off twice to waive off the Niger uranium the Niger uranium storystory

Lawyer, and Lawyer, and worked at the worked at the Scowcroft GroupScowcroft Group

NSC (Staff) in Ford NSC (Staff) in Ford administration administration (NATO and Europe)(NATO and Europe)

b. 1947, Toledo, b. 1947, Toledo, OHOH

BA, Cornell (’69) ; BA, Cornell (’69) ; JD, Yale (’72)JD, Yale (’72)

(Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)(Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)

It’s MY power!It’s MY power!

National Security Act 1947National Security Act 1947 NSCNSC JCSJCS SecDef (et al.)SecDef (et al.) CIACIA

Increasing reliance on Increasing reliance on NSC staffNSC staff

Centralization of Centralization of policymaking in the White policymaking in the White HouseHouse

OK, not really all OK, not really all “in” the White “in” the White

House: House: Eisenhower Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office (Old) Executive Office

BuildingBuilding

Advising the Advising the PresidentPresident

Short Run Advantages for Short Run Advantages for the Presidentthe President

Long Run Disadvantages Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency?for the Presidency?

Principal-Agent Principal-Agent RelationshipsRelationships

Advising the Advising the PresidentPresident

Alexander L. George, Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and AdviceAdvice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980) (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)

Staffing SystemsStaffing Systems(Ideal Types)(Ideal Types)

FormalisticFormalistic CompetitiveCompetitive CollegialCollegial

Formalistic Formalistic SystemsSystems

Formalistic Formalistic SystemsSystems

More FormalismMore Formalism

Competitive Competitive SystemSystem

Collegial ModelCollegial Model

Decision-Making Decision-Making TasksTasks

Survey ObjectivesSurvey Objectives Canvass AlternativesCanvass Alternatives Search for InformationSearch for Information Assimilate and Process Assimilate and Process

New and Discrepant New and Discrepant InformationInformation

Evaluate Costs, Risks, Evaluate Costs, Risks, ImplicationsImplications

Develop Implementation, Develop Implementation, Monitoring, and Monitoring, and Contingency PlansContingency Plans

Process-OutcomesProcess-Outcomes

Irving Janis: Irving Janis: GroupthinkGroupthink

Process-Outcome Process-Outcome Link?Link?

Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Journal of Conflict ResolutionResolution 31 (1987): 203-226. 31 (1987): 203-226.

Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Process-Outcome Connection in Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink,” Groupthink,” International Studies Quarterly International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): 45-68.46 (March 2002): 45-68.

Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on International Politics on the World Stagethe World Stage (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition) (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)

CRISIS DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES BY CRISIS DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES BY TASKTASK

VPVP P P NN W W VWVW

Task 1. Survey ObjectivesTask 1. Survey ObjectivesTonkin GulfTonkin Gulf DienbienphuDienbienphuTet 2Tet 2Tet 1Tet 1 SuezSuez

JordanJordanOctober WarOctober War

Task 2. Canvass AlternativesTask 2. Canvass AlternativesTonkin GulfTonkin Gulf SuezSuez

DienbienphuDienbienphuTet 1Tet 1 Tet 2Tet 2JordanJordan October WarOctober War

Task 3. Search for InformationTask 3. Search for InformationSuezSuez DienbienphuDienbienphu

October WarOctober WarTonkin GulfTonkin Gulf Tet 2Tet 2Tet 1Tet 1JordanJordan

Task 4. Assimilate and Process New InformationTask 4. Assimilate and Process New InformationTonkin GulfTonkin Gulf SuezSuez DienbienphuDienbienphuTet 2Tet 2Tet 1Tet 1 JordanJordanOctober WarOctober War

Task 5. Evaluate Costs, Risks, and Implications of Task 5. Evaluate Costs, Risks, and Implications of Preferred ChoicePreferred Choice

Tonkin GulfTonkin Gulf SuezSuezDienbienphuDienbienphu

Tet 1Tet 1 October WarOctober WarTet 2Tet 2JordanJordan

Task 6. Develop Monitoring, Implementation, and Task 6. Develop Monitoring, Implementation, and Contingency PlansContingency Plans

SuezSuez Tet 2Tet 2 Tonkin GulfTonkin GulfDienbienphuDienbienphu

Tet 1Tet 1 JordanJordanOctober WarOctober War

Very Well (VW)Very Well (VW) = 4 or more recognitions of the task = 4 or more recognitions of the taskWell (W)Well (W) = 2 or 3 recognitions of the task= 2 or 3 recognitions of the task

Neutral (N)Neutral (N) = 0 or 1 recognition or omission of the task= 0 or 1 recognition or omission of the taskPoorlyPoorly (P) (P) = 2 or 3 omission of the task= 2 or 3 omission of the task

Very Poorly (VP)Very Poorly (VP) = 4 or more omissions of the task= 4 or more omissions of the task

From Patrick J. Haney, From Patrick J. Haney, Organizing for Foreign Policy CrisesOrganizing for Foreign Policy Crises (Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan, (Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan, 2002)2002)

Getting it RightGetting it Right

George: Multiple AdvocacyGeorge: Multiple Advocacy

Not sure I can tell you how Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. guarantee failure. And And scandal.scandal.