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    p a p e r s e r i e s

    The U.S. NaTUral GaS revolUTioN

    Will eUrope Be ready iN Time?

    Paolo Natali

    Compagnia di San Paolo Fellow

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    2012 Transatlantic Academy. All rights reserved.

    No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means

    without permission in writing from the Transatlantic Academy. Please direct inquiries to:

    Transatlantic Academy

    1744 R Street, NW

    Washington, DC 20009

    T 1 202 745 3886

    F 1 202 265 1662

    E [email protected]

    This publication can be downloaded for free at www.transatlanticacademy.org.

    Transatlantic Academy Paper Series

    The Transatlantic Academy Paper Series presents research on a variety of transatlantic topics by

    staff, fellows, and partners of the Transatlantic Academy. The views expressed here are those of

    the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Transatlantic Academy. Comments

    from readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

    About the Transatlantic Academy

    The Transatlantic Academy was created in 2007 as a partnership between the German Marshall

    Fund of the United States (GMF) and the ZEIT-Stiftung Ebelin und Gerd Bucerius. The Robert

    Bosch Stiftung and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation joined as full partners beginning in

    2008, and the Fritz Thyssen Foundation joined as a full partner in 2011. The Compagnia di San

    Paolo joined in providing additional support in May 2009, as did the Joachim Herz Stiftung and the

    Volkswagen Stifung in 2011. In addition, the Academy received startup funding from the Trans-

    atlantic Program of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany through funds of the

    European Recovery Program (ERP) of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology.

    About the Compagnia di San Paolo Fellowship

    Chosen from among Italys most promising young academics and policy practitioners, Compagnia

    di San Paolo Fellows are in residence at the Transatlantic Academy for up to three months.

    During their fellowship, they interact with the Academys long-term fellows, conduct their own

    research, write a short paper for the Transatlantic Academy Paper Series, and make presenta-

    tions to audiences of analysts and government officials in the Washington area. The Compagnia

    di San Paolo Fellowship is made possible by a grant from the Compagnia di San Paolo, Italy.

    On the cover: A liquid natural gas tanker at port Mayumi Terao

    http://-/?-mailto:TA%40gmfus.org?subject=mailto:TA%40gmfus.org?subject=http://-/?-
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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution:Will Europe Be Ready in Time?

    Transatlantic Academy Paper Series

    May 2012

    Paolo Natali1

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 1

    Executive Summary

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 3

    Introduction

    The shale gas

    revolution has

    the potential

    to terminate

    the Wests

    dependency on

    energy supplies

    produced in

    remote regions

    of the world.

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    Transatlantic Academy4

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    Transatlantic Academy6

    The relative

    capacity of

    member states

    to attract natural

    gas imports varies

    widely across

    the region.

    The Decline of

    Declinism in

    Natural Gas, and

    a Booming LNG

    Sector

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    Regional Natural Gas Prices

    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 2012. Argos, Heren, Platts front month prices, 2012

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 7

    Demand for gas

    will increase

    overall in Europe

    but geographical

    speaking it will

    be driven by the

    eastern side of

    the continent.

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 9

    Europe Gearing Up for the LNG Impact

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    A Tale of Pricing

    T LNG g E

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    EU27 and Turkey.

    Market Structures as Functions

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    World Gas Trade

    Source: Congressional Cartography Program, 2010. Data from U.S. State Department and BP

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    Transatlantic Academy10

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    Imports in Europe per Exporting Country 2010 Share of LNG World Imports 2010

    Source: GIIGNL, The LNG Industry 2010 [Europe includes EU27 + Turkey]

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 11

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    Regasification Capacity becomes Paramount,

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    Pricing of LNG from Qatar by Destination

    Source: Waterborne LNG netback calculations 2011 (elaborated by Daniel Fineren)

    Of the 20 existin

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    Transatlantic Academy12

    g- g g f

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    Alternatives to Russian Gas

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    LNG terminals 2011-2020 by Volume ( bcm) Same by Price ( billion)

    Source: GLE investment database and their internal assessment

    LNG Terminals in Europe

    Source: GLE map 2012

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 13

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    Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 15

    Physical vs. Regulatory Progress

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    Infrastructure and Governance

    in the European Gas Network3

    There is more

    room for

    optimization

    of flows than

    there is in the

    improvement of

    infrastructure.

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    Transatlantic Academy16

    bf f kg gb g k.

    The Case for Improving Market Governance

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    The amount of

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 17

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    bw b

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    b .

    The harmonizati

    of rules appears

    to be something

    that the gas

    market left to

    itself is not able

    to provide.

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 19

    Cross-Border Gas Shipping Today

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    b b

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    f S R Bg

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    b g LNG. U C

    b, g f Ib

    (M Eg)

    Mk

    What Policy Options for Europe?

    4

    Cross-border

    shipping of natu

    gas is a relatively

    cumbersome

    activity within

    the EUs territory

    due to the lack

    of regulatory

    coordination

    among member

    states and the

    presence of a

    large number

    of Transmission

    System Operator

    (TSOs).

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    Transatlantic Academy20

    Box 1: From TTF to CEGH

    Imagine that a company has bought, or is otherwise going to hold, a certain volume of gas for

    a period of time, starting the following month (i.e. a front month contract), at the TTF hub in

    the Netherlands. This company believes the price differential with the Austrian hub CEGH at

    Baumgarten will increase, and therefore intends to sell this volume there. Leaving aside for

    simplicity any license requirement, in order to simply ship the gas across the continent, the

    company will need to complete the following:

    Acquire exit capacity from the Dutch TSO GasTransportServices at one of the five exit points

    toward Germany (Bocholtz, Zevenaar, Winterswijk, Vlieghuis, Bunde).

    Match it with entry capacity into Germany from the appropriate TSO (Open Grid Europe,

    Thyssengas, ENI GT DE depending on entry point).

    Move it further inside Germany with other TSOs as necessary.

    continued on page 21

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 21

    f Bg Tk. T Gk

    R

    Sk b.

    A f Sk, g fw f

    Bg b , b bf

    g Bg, LNG

    S w g

    b Bx . T x f w

    - fwk,

    b f Sk LNG

    g g S. T x f 9

    g w

    g b f g R

    b bg G b

    NCG g g Cz Rb.

    T b

    z k f S, f

    g w b w

    f q b NCG. B w g

    g f , f, ff

    f LNG S q NCG E

    b, gg b

    k g

    f J 9.

    continued from page 20

    Use exit capacity at either Oberkappel (Open Grid Europe or GRTGaz Deutschland) or Burghausen

    (Bayemets or Gascade).

    Buy entry capacity from the corresponding Austrian TSO (BOG for Oberkappel, or Gas Connect

    Austria for Burghausen).

    The capacities acquired need to match in terms of volumes and timing, and in order for the shipping

    to be guaranteed, all of them need to be firm capacities. Any failure to obtain firm capacity in a

    segment of the route, with the consequent need to use at least interruptible capacity, will expose

    the entire route to risk of being disrupted.

    Imagine that, for example, the entry points from Germany are congested, and neither BOG nor GasConnect Austria have firm capacity available for the specified time framework. In addition, this time

    the owner of the volumes is particularly unlucky, and it looks like no such capacity is available on

    the secondary market either. BOG offers interruptible at Oberkappel. The possibilities are:

    Sell the volume at the German NCG, provide the Austrian counterpart with gas sourced locally at

    CEGH, strike two decent deals but forget about making a profit on the price differential. After all,

    this is exactly the reason why there is a price differential.

    Buy interruptible capacity at the Austrian entry point, be lucky, and still be able to fully exploit the

    price differential.

    Buy interruptible capacity at the Austrian entry point, be unlucky, and get interrupted for some

    days during the contract. During those days, sell the German volumes at NCG day ahead and

    provide the Austrian counterpart with local volumes sourced at CEGH day ahead, making a loss in

    the process.

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    Transatlantic Academy22

    Box 2: LNG from Spain to Slovakia

    In order to ship gas landed at the Bilbao LNG terminal, a shipper would first of all need to enter

    and exit the Spanish system operated by the TSO Enagas.

    The gas must then pass through the three PEG balancing zones in France (TIGF operated by the

    eponymous TSO, then South and North operated by GRTGaz) to reach the German exit point at

    Medelsheim.

    After the border crossing, the gas would be in Germany and in the pipes operated by either

    GRTGaz Deustschland or Open Gas Europe.

    At this point, the long process already described in Box 1 needs to be completed in order to

    reach Austrias eastern border at Baumgarten. As the Slovakian TSO Eustream now has physical

    bi-directional capacity at the Baumgarten entry point, the gas can then be shipped into Slovakia by

    booking the corresponding capacity.

    More likely, however, the gas would be shipped through the Czech Republic (Waidhaus or Deustch

    Neudorf entry and Lanhot exit) via the TSO Net4Gas.

    This physical shipping of gas from Spain to Slovakia is not what would happen even in a more

    virtually interconnected system, as there will always be different liquidity levels at different points in

    the network, and most likely this would lead to cheaper opportunities physically closer to the point

    of demand. In this case, unless the severity of the disruption drains out spot availability at hubs,

    continued on page 23

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 23

    Mkg b g b

    f fw

    bw : f g b g z g,

    w w , b ,

    wb fw f g g f

    R k . A g LNG

    S g A w w

    g b AOC f g Bg.

    Of , fw f

    g g

    E f R -. T

    f w w kg

    g g w. B

    ff ff fxb

    E E k, b

    b ff b g

    b .

    The Needed Change and its Drivers

    Ig , g

    w b

    , w b

    f g E

    w w b f

    f -b , k w b Bx

    g f LNG S

    Sk.

    B -b x f

    k bg

    continued from page 22the spot price at NCG is likely to remain lower

    than that of landing a spot LNG cargo in Spain

    and shipping it in the byzantine way described

    above. But with more virtual interconnection,

    the costs of the two operations would

    influence each other, mitigating spot price

    spikes and therefore ultimately providing

    physical volumes at lower prices.

    f . I TSO bg z b, fwg

    z w k

    :

    C

    b f bkg

    b . I f b

    b,

    g g b

    .

    Cg g b

    gz w bk

    f -b g

    f g , w

    b f g, w b k

    bg g

    w k

    k .

    Rg q w g,

    TSO, g,

    b z w

    , , b

    Box 3: Moving Gas Virtually from Italy to

    Bulgaria through an Optimization Strategy

    Customer A in Bulgaria wants 1 mcm/d.

    Customer B in Italy has 2 mcm/d available

    in Bulgaria delivered from Russia, and 1

    mcm/d of LNG delivered to Italy.

    Customer A buys 1 mcm/d Russian gas

    in Bulgaria from customer B, which serves

    additional customer C in Italy with 1 mcm/d

    LNG instead of using the physical Russian

    flow in exit from Bulgaria onto CEGH and then

    PSV, which is now only 1 mcm/d.

    The process reduces the westbound flow

    rather than reversing it.

    What would be

    needed in the

    first place is the

    creation of cross

    border capacity

    products.

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    Transatlantic Academy24

    f g f

    TSO g

    g. Rg

    b b g/x , g

    f g E b,

    w f k

    f f bg .

    L b

    b f w, b ,

    b g

    f . O b

    q q f f f

    b b b f b

    w b ( x f I PSV). Ow

    b w k b f

    /x g ff

    .

    A b ,

    b f

    E k

    b. T EU g f g k E

    gf w

    z f , g

    TSO g b w .

    A f g

    f b f b w

    f. A ,

    f Bg b

    5 R g,

    w x f P (48 ), w

    f g ggb, R, w g

    f (g R g

    f gf 7 f

    ).

    Dependency on Russian Natural Gas Exports

    Sources. EU27 countries: Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the proposal for a Regulation repealing EU Directive 2004/67/EC

    on the security of gas supply, July 16, 2007. Non-EU27 countries: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 25

    F, g f f U.S. g gb LNG k,

    f x w

    f E, wk w

    z, g

    -b g. Kg

    gf f b -

    f- bff fg, b ff

    w 5

    jfb g. I

    , g x x

    U.S. g w b ,

    f -k LNG x, w b

    LNG , g

    k f U.S. k. I

    w, g- b w g

    f

    LNG g w , fg

    k, b f

    w b f gf

    f E. W E g

    b gf x

    f f:

    S, I, G

    bk f

    f b ;

    g kg

    b

    g w-b f f

    g;

    w k k

    w f b

    EU E Tg S. T

    b w b f

    g, k g

    f w.

    F, g g E b,

    w z f fw w ,

    f g. P g wb w

    g f f g g

    , g

    g f g

    w g .

    The Opposing Factors

    Igg wk ff k

    f f k. T b w

    E g wk b

    f g g kg

    gb k. T w k fwk f g

    g E wk k g

    w b bf

    f g b gb k. A

    f gb g fw kg

    g w, k,

    w fw w w

    b f .

    O f g f z

    :

    , w b b bw f b ,

    w b E k f g

    gg j fg

    f q. O g

    w b , b g f

    f zg:

    Rg g w

    g w g

    w k g

    f , g ,

    f. I , f , w

    LNG w w k bf f

    .

    T g b x EU

    E-w k g

    An historical shif

    in global gas flow

    is taking place

    right now, and as

    in every market,

    second comers

    will have fewer

    opportunities.

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    Transatlantic Academy26

    b. T kg k fg, f

    b f fg

    , wg f ff

    bw E b,

    g bg

    f g

    f x

    g k f .

    What Direction?

    Mk ff b bg b b

    k . A b , f g b f

    . T w

    , g w

    f g wk,

    f E g

    k g f f

    kg , f

    . P f b

    w g f

    , w f g

    bg f g b

    wk b

    f f .

    B g f g fwk

    b bz kg EU

    (998, 3, 9), w f

    b TSO

    g g f

    g g

    , g g

    , b

    k ff f g

    w w b f b f TSO -k f , g

    f k f z j

    k f z. F x, g

    f g

    wk f TSO

    . If f f bw b f ,

    -b w b f w k

    f g w f ff

    .

    A x f g b, w

    wg w g

    k g, b

    b g b g

    g bz E k.

    I w b b

    b bg f TSO b f

    TSO g . M, E

    fg b

    g f f w

    gg z b. T

    f b f gf

    , f f -w b

    w b- E

    . A j k

    g b wg

    w fg k, w f

    , f b.G f b

    g ( w f -b

    z g) w

    ( w g

    ), k

    g- bf f z

    k E . T

    g , w

    f f

    EU-w g k, b f

    .

    E ff E b,

    w w f

    g k f,

    w b g

    f , b

    g . A k b

    The monopoly

    power that is still

    held at many

    levels hinders

    the spontaneous

    development of

    the European

    gas market into

    a competitive

    playing field.

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 27

    q, g- g

    g bk b ,

    g bw g-

    w w g g f b b

    w b ff b ff,

    jzg bf f -kg

    f g f .

    R g w b

    - g- , k

    b w w z

    w g -b g

    k g bf bg b. T

    f gb g k w

    g- LNG zgw, b

    w . T f

    x k g f

    g kg E

    .

    Pressure from Abroad

    under a Transatlantic Perspective

    I b fg , LNG

    f -x f EU f g, , E LNG

    - f gb k. S

    g f

    f E g k w

    b b -g f . T

    g f q gb g k

    gb , bf

    E w b b , w b b

    g.

    C w b g b f

    fg , g wk gg gf x

    f , gb LNG

    b, , f ,

    f g g. T w

    w gg

    The Future of the Global Gas Market

    Source: BG Group 2011

    The real risk is

    that all these

    obstacles

    slow down the

    harmonization

    process in a

    way that easing

    cross-border

    shipping takes

    too long before

    becoming visible

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    Transatlantic Academy28

    k b C b , b w f

    g gb g k. A ,

    I f gg j g f

    g wk. I gg k

    f f A LNG, b

    f U.S.-x LNG. A g g

    f LNG k, b

    . I , b 55

    f LNG k

    C, I, J, K, Tw. A

    bkg f , S C

    w kg w g k w.

    D U.S. g k w

    b , f g g

    f g

    xg wg

    . T LNG

    U S g bw b/, g 5-8

    f gb k. T

    b g f LNG W

    E, S, w 49.5 b

    gf f w b 5

    b z . Pg

    w b b f E

    f U S. A

    b f x ,

    g w ff w A g

    g . C,

    f g w E w f

    U.S. . B E

    f A , g

    f - LNG w

    g.

    Developments in

    the U.S. domestic

    gas market will

    also be pivotal, as

    the former largest

    gas importer

    disappears from

    the demand curve

    and might soon

    start exercising

    its weight on the

    supply curve.

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    The U.S. Natural Gas Revolution 29

    I f E gz b b

    gb g k q w

    bg . E g

    , b j

    g .

    A b w, EU

    b g g bf

    f . C-b g

    b f b g

    z f k ,

    f TSO g w g q f

    g . A E g

    b g, b

    f xg b g

    b, f g f

    q (

    g f w, g g, )

    z f ,

    , wk q.

    I b b f

    LNG g w Ib

    P Sk, P,

    Policy Recommendations

    5

    Bg . O w w E k b b

    g f LNG b k

    f f f ff f

    E .

    T x f w

    b g

    g q f f

    g, F Pkg f

    bz f g k. T

    f g bz k w

    q g f TSO k E , w

    z f g

    g. C- bw TSO

    gg b

    b- . B

    b kwg k f w

    f f g b b

    f , g

    q. I g, EU k

    q , w

    k w k g .

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    Transatlantic Academy30

    A Sz, Aj (C N Eg) (), LNG in Spain: Key Figures and

    Regulatory Framework, , F,

    M 6, .

    B, O. P. T (.) (), Eg

    S M & N G Sg,

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    B, T, Safeguarding Optimal Investments

    in Gas Infrastructure, T A,

    , .

    BP (), Energy Outlook 2030, Statistical Review.

    D C f Eg S (),

    Made in America: The Economic Impact of LNG

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    ETSO EPEX (9), Development and

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    EU Mk Ob f Eg (), Key

    Figures, June 2011, E C DG

    ENER.

    Eg (), Natural Gas Demand and Supply

    Long Term Outlook to 2030.

    E C (7), Inquiry into

    competition in gas and electricity markets, COM

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    E C (), EU Energy and

    Transport in Figures Statistical Pocketbook.

    E C (), Energy Roadmap

    2050, COM() 885/.

    E M EMI (), From Regional

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    ERGEG M F

    g, J 5, .

    G, J-M Hk Kf (),Conclusions of Workshop Identifying Benefits

    and Allocating Costs for Cross-Border Electricity

    & Gas Infrastructure Projects,E

    C DG ENER F S f

    Rg.

    I Eg Ag (8), Development

    of competitive gas trading in continental Europe .

    I G U (), World LNG Report

    Jb, T. P, M. (7), I

    g f b wk:L f x f B, Energy

    Policy, 35 ().

    KEMA (9), Study on Methodologies for Gas

    Transmission Network Tariffs and Gas-Balancing

    Fees in Europe, f E C,

    DG TREN.

    L, C Bz M (),

    Convergence of Non-Discriminatory Tariff and

    Congestion Management Systems in the European

    Gas Sector, T B G.

    Mff A (8), Review and analysis

    of EU wholesale energy markets. Evaluation of

    factors impacting on current and future market

    liquidity and efficiency, b

    DG TREN.

    N, P (EPRG Cbg) (), European

    Gas Supply Security, w

    CERI S P P, M 9, .

    P, www.., g

    R, M (), Global Natural Gas: A

    Growing Resource, Cg R

    S, Db .

    Bibliography

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