February 2020

The US Economic Outlook

Jesse Edgerton

Senior Economist, Executive Director

Global Economic Research

jesse.edgerton@jpmorgan.com

1

Overview

Rebound from trade-war-induced slowdown in 2019 has been gathering

steam, but coronavirus and US election present new risks

Manufacturing was hit hardest and weakness will persist a bit longer

Labor market and consumers have been resilient throughout

Our baseline forecast sees GDP growth accelerating from 1% in Q1 to

1.75% in Q4, averaging about 1.5%

Wage growth has been solid, but core inflation looks unlikely to jump

We look for one Federal Reserve rate cut in June

Ongoing “framework review” should conclude mid-year

One more cut will drive home shift toward average inflation targeting

Near-term recession risks were falling, but coronavirus raises them again

Assuming there is no recession, will we see a more robust rebound?

2

Slowing global growth and trade policy risks have hurt US

manufacturing, but consumer confidence has remained resilient

Consumer and manufacturing sector confidence

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

index

Sour ce: Var ious sour ces, J.P. Mor gan

Manufacturing

Consumer

Oil price

collapseTrump

election

Great

Recession

Trade conflicts

+ Fed hikes+ shutdown

Euro crisis

peak

US manufacturing weakness spilled into service sector somewhat;

Capital expenditures have been falling

Composite US business sentiment indexes

3

US core capital goods spending

30

40

50

60

70

80

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21

index

Sour ce: J.P. Mor gan

Manufacturing

Services

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

millions of $, samr

Sour ce: Census Bur eau, J.P. Mor gan. Figur es are "absor ption," or or ders + imports - ex por ts.

Shipments

New orders

4

Drags on manufacturing sector are likely to continue;

Boeing 737 and coronavirus could delay rebound further

Manufacturing sentiment, new orders, and employment

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

indexed (Jan 2007 = 1)

Sour ce: Census Bur eau, B.L.S., J.P. Mor gan

Manufacturingemployment

Manufacturingsentiment Capital goods

orders

2015-16 took awhile to play out

5

Nonfarm payrolls

Overall job growth had slowed, and job opening have fallen;

Strong recent jobs reports suggest beginning of a rebound

Job openings

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

% change in 3-mo avg at annual rate

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Over 12

months

Over 6

months

0

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

change, 000s, sa

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

6-month

average

6

Private payroll growth

Slowdown has been limited to manufacturing-exposed industries;

Unemployment insurance claims show little sign of layoffs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Nonmanufacturing industries

MOST exposed to

manufacturing

Nonmanufacturing industries

LEAST exposed to

manufacturing

Manufacturing industries

%oya

Sour ce: BLS, BEA, J.P. Mor gan

200

270

340

410

480

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

000s, sa

Sour ce: Depar tment of Labor , J.P. Mor gan

4-week

average

7

Consumer sentiment surveys have wobbled a few times, but

rebounded in 2020; We will watch closely for any deterioration

Consumer spending measures

7

Three surveys of consumer sentiment

6

9

12

15

18

21

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

05 08 11 14 17 20

% change over 6 months, ann

Sour ce: BEA, J.P. Mor gan

mn units, saar

Real

consumption

Auto sales

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

05 08 11 14 17 20

z-score

Sour ce: Bloomber g, Univer sity of Michigan, Confer ence Boar d, J.P. Mor gan

U. of Michigan

Bloomberg

Conference

Board

8

Housing: Housing recovery has been tepid for years amid weak

household formation

Living situations of 25-34 year-oldsHousing starts

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

52%

53%

94 99 04 09 14 19Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Living in

parent's household

Heading

own household

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Tho

usa

nds

millions, annual rate, 6-month average

Sour ce: Census Bur eau, J.P. Mor gan

Single-

family

Total

9

Housing activity has jumped since mortgage rates dropped last year;

But prices are starting to decline in hot markets

Zillow median home valuesHousing activity indicators

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

indexed Mar-2018=100, sa

Sour ce: Census Bur eau, NAHB, J.P. Mor gan

Homebuilder

sentiment

Housing

permits

New home

sales

150

250

350

450

550

500

750

1000

1250

1500

05 08 11 14 17 20

$ per square foot

Sour ce: Zillow , J.P. Mor gan

Seattle

DC

San Francisco

Manhattan

10

On net, our nowcaster of underlying GDP growth has rebounded

nicely since mid-November, but we look for slowing from here

JPM nowcasts of US GDP growth

11

Coronavirus will dramatically slow global growth and

drag on US

Case count is decelerating in

China but accelerating elsewhere

Some economic activity in China

is resuming, but slower than

expected

We expect severe V-shaped

effects on China output, but

modest effects on US

Downside risks to US would be

significant if virus spreads

China coal consumption has yet to rebound

Outbound shipping traffic has picked up

Q1 GDP growth forecasts

China Italy US Global

Pre-virus (Jan 24) 6.3% 1.0% 1.25% 2.6%

Current -3.9% -2.0% 1.0% 0%?

12

US election is on track to create more uncertainty than usual

US elections are not always a macro event

Major fiscal policy changes probably

require sweep of presidency, Senate, and

House by one party

Even with one-party sweep, passing

legislation through Senate still requires:

• 60 votes to overcome filibuster

• OR political will to use reconciliation

Currently, “democratic socialist” Bernie

Sanders is leading a tight race for

Democratic nomination

Significant probability of a contested

Democratic convention July 13-16

Then significant chance of Sanders vs.

Trump election on November 5

Sanders is leading Democratic race

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 29-Feb

Prediction market probabilities for Trump and Congress

Source: PredictIt, J.P. Morgan

Trump reelection

Democratic Congressional

sweep

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 29-Feb

Sanders or Warren

Bloomberg

Other moderates

Prediction-market-based probability of winning nomination

Source: PredictIt, J.P. Morgan

13

Policy risks are still concerns

US-China Trade: Phase 1 deal signed. US leaves most tariffs in place and

China agrees to extra $200 billion in purchases over 2 years. Plan for

Phase 2 is unclear, but will presumably be delayed until post-election.

NAFTA/USMCA: Passed by legislatures in Mexico and US; still needs

approval in Canada.

Brexit: UK left EU on January 31 and now enters “transition period” until

year-end under same trade rules. Negotiations will continue.

Auto tariffs: US/EU trade dispute and auto tariff threats had been on

backburner, but could be resurrected.

Even under assumption of rebound after trade war and coronavirus, we

still forecast growth rising to only 1.75% by Q4.

14

Growth in nonfarm labor productivity

Longer-run, we estimate US potential growth at about 1.5%;

Labor productivity and labor supply growth have both slowed

Growth in population and labor force

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

%ch over 3 years at annual rate

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Labor

force

Population of

20-59 year-olds

0

1

2

3

4

5

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

%chg at annual rate

Sour ce: BLS

Over

2 yrs.

Over

5 yrs.

15

Labor supply: Labor force participation rate has declined since

recession; Retirement of baby boomers explains a big piece

Adult labor force participation rate Fraction of adult population that is 65+

62

63

64

65

66

67

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

%, sa

Sour ce: BLS

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Sour ce: Census Bur eau, J.P. Mor gan

Census

Forecast

16

And participation in younger groups was already declining pre-crisis;

Recently, prime-age women have defied downward trend

Prime-age labor force participation rates Predicted LFPR from demographic model

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21

Percent

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

LFPR

Model based ondemographics andpre-2007 trends

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Percent

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Women 25-54

Trend fit

1998-2007

Men 25-54

17

Unemployment rate has fallen dramatically since 2010;

Unclear how much further it can fall from 50-year lows

Unemployment rate and “natural rate”

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

%

Sour ce: BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Unemployment

rate

CBO

Naturalrate

18

Alternative measures of wage growth

Most measures of wage growth have returned to pre-crisis levels,

but have been lagging historical relationships since 2018

Actual vs model-predicted wage growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21

Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker

Average Hourly Earnings

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Sour ce: BEA, BLS, Atlanta Fed, J.P. Mor gan

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21

%

Sour ce: J.P. Mor gan

ActualPrediction from model

estimated 1988-2007

19

Inflation has been low and stable since the mid-1990s;

Core PCE inflation has fluctuated between 1.5% and 2.0%

US core inflation, 1960-present

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

%oya

Sour ce: BLS, BEA, J.P. Mor gan

Core PCEinflation

Core CPI inflation

Fed PCE target adopted in 2012:

2.0%

Core PCEaverage

1995-2011:1.73%

20

Wage increases with no price increases mean margins get

squeezed when labor markets are tight

Coefficient in rolling regression on labor cost Total economy nonfinancial corporate margin

12

14

16

18

20

22

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20Sour ce: J.P. Mor gan. Figur es ar e net oper ating sur plus as % of gr oss value added.

4QMA

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15Source: B.L.S, B.E.A, J.P. Morgan. Coefficients in regressions with rolling 20-year sample.

Core PCE inflation on unit labor cost

Change in marginson unit labor cost

21

Fed cut 3 times to insure against recession;

We expect another cut in June to conclude framework review

Sentiment about growth in FOMC minutes Discussion of risk and uncertainty

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21Sour ce: Feder al Reser ve, J.P. Mor gan

Index

4-meeting

movingaverage

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21Sour ce: Feder al Reser ve, J.P. Mor gan

Risk and uncertainty as share of all economic discussion

4-meeting

movingaverage

22

Recession risks implied by yield curve and economic data are

still somewhat elevated; Stocks still seem more optimistic

Probability of recession beginning within 1 year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

95 00 05 10 15 20

Based on economic data

Based on yield curve

Based on S&P 500 and BBB spread

Sour ce: Var ious sour ces, J.P. Mor gan. Gr ey shaded ar eas ar e NBER r ecessions.

23

Contributions to overall recession risk

Most high-frequency recession indicators are back to

looking fairly positive

21%

34%

16%

-1.0%

+3.2%+2.0% +0.8%

-0.4%

+12.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sour ce: Var ious gover nment and non-gover nment sour ces, J.P. Mor gan

Contributions to probability of recession within 1 year

Probabilities based on single indicators

Probabilities of US recession within 1 year from near-term indicators

Indicator(s) Probability Current levelLevel at 50%

probability

Historical av erage unconditional probability 16%

Consumer sentiment 12% 79.4 70.8

Nonmanufacturing sentiment 19% 61.2 54.0

Manufacturing sentiment 19% 57.0 49.2

Residential building permits 7% 1460 1163

Auto sales 31% 16.8 14.9

Pay rolls 20% 211 -90

Unemploy ment rate 35% 3.6 3.8

Initial claims 16% 208 232

Senior loan officer opinion surv ey 3% 0.2 18.5

All near-term economic indicators abov e 21%

Background risk indicators 48%

All economic indicators 34%

Source: J.P. M organ. "Historical average unconditional probability" is the historical average

probability of a recession starting within 12 months when beginning in an expansion,

unconditional on any data. A ll o ther probabilities are based on regression models.

24

But longer-term, tight labor markets have historically signaled

higher background risk of recession

Risk of recession by unemployment rate Longer run probabilities more elevated

Indicator 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years

Historical av erage unconditional probability 16% 32% 45% 56%

Unemploy ment rate 48% 77% 89% 96%

Unemploy ment gap 39% 64% 80% 91%

Compensation grow th 40% 66% 79% 85%

Prime-age male labor force participation 48% 78% 88% 96%

Margin draw dow n from 5-y ear peak 75% 88% 91% 91%

Durables and structures share of GDP 30% 49% 64% 78%

All background risk indicators abov e 48% 83% 100% 100%

All economic indicators 34% 68% 88% 100%

Source: J.P. M organ. "Historical average unconditional probability" is the historical average

probability of a recession starting within a given horizon when beginning in an expansion,

unconditional on any data. A ll o ther probabilities are based on regression models. Indicators are

transformed as fo llows: compensation growth is difference from 10-year average, prime-age

male participation is the difference over three years in the 12-month average, durables and

structures share is difference from 10-year average. "Composite probability from medium-term

indicators" is the probability from a model based on the first principal component of the

indicators in the table. "Composite from near and medium-term indicators" is the probability

from a model including the first principal component of our near-term indicators and the first

component of the medium-term indicators.

Table 2: Probabilities of US recession from medium-term indicators

25

What vulnerabilities should we be watching?

We find the most reliable indicator of recession

vulnerability has been a tight labor market,

which signals that the economy is operating

beyond its sustainable capacity

Against this backdrop, historical recessions often

involved an outbreak of inflation that led to

rapid Fed tightening

More recent recessions involved financial

overheating in the form of high asset prices

and/or leverage

There are some signs of similar overheating

today, but they look less extreme than at times

in the past

E.g. asset valuations are high across the board,

but not as high as recent cycle peaks (chart)

Asset valuations getting high again

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Real house prices

Real CRE prices

Shiller S&P500 P/E ratioz-score (both axes)

Sour ce: S&P, Feder al Reser ve, BLS, J.P. Mor gan

26

Corporate debt is at high levels relative to GDP or income;

This is a key vulnerability in our view

US debt to GDP ratios

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

ratio to GDP

Sour ce: Feder al Reser ve, J.P. Mor gan

Federal

govtdebt

Household debt

Nonfin

corporatedebt

Nonfin. corporate net-debt-to-income ratio

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20Sour ce: Feder al Reser ve, BEA, J.P. Mor gan.

ratio of net debt to EBITDA proxy

Cyclically-

adjusted

27

High federal government debt will stir debate about room for stimulus;

But low rates and low risk of US debt crisis mean it might make sense

Unemployment rate and federal deficit Probability of debt crisis within 5 years

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16 21 26

% %

Sour ce: CBO, BLS, J.P. Mor gan

Deficit as share of GDP

(with CBO forecast)Unemployment rate

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

G7 (1955-Present)

G7 + N. Europe (1955-Present)

Developed markets (1955-Present)

Developed markets (1900-Present)

All countries (1955-Present)

All countries (1900-Present)

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates

Debt crises in countries like the US post-WWII

have been very rare

Plus, Federal Reserve can create dollars to buy

debt to prevent crisis to preserve maximum

employment and price stability

Constraints on US fiscal stimulus will be primarily

political

But fiscal stimulus has generally not been enough

to stop recessions

28

Traditional durables and structures investment not especially elevated;

But high-tech investment levels have risen quickly recently

Past equipment and housing booms High-tech investments

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

% of potential GDP

Sour ce: BEA, J.P. Mor gan

Business

equipment

Residential

investment

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19

% of potential GDP

Sour ce: BEA, J.P. Mor gan

Information

processingequipment

Software

Research and

development

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