and the Role of Renewable Energy

Chuck KutscherNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

The Urgency of Climate Change

PSERC 2009 Summer WorkshopJuly 10, 2009

“The greatest hoax ever perpetrated

on the American people”?

Climate Change:

50 Years Ago

"For every shrinking glacier there is a growing one--but the growing ones get much less attention."

- Christopher Horner, The Politically IncorrectGuide to Global Warming, pg. 66

World Glacier Monitoring Service

AdvancingRetreating

• In 2005 442 glaciers studied: - 26 advancing- 18 stationary- 398 retreating

2007 IPCC Report

• “Warming of the climate is unequivocal.”

• “..very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

IPCC Scenarios vs. Actual Emissions

Source: Chris Field, Stanford University

What the latest IPCC study

did not include:

“future rapid dynamicalchanges in ice flow”

Sources: NCAR and National Snow and Ice Data Center

20072008

September 2007 September 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Is Getting Thinner

Rapid Retreat

Jacobshavns Isbrae

Iceberg-choked fjord created by rapid retreatCourtesy of Robert Bindschadler

Average speed5 ft per hour!

Qarassup GlacierGreenland

June 9, 200712:12 p.m.

“The last time a large ice sheetmelted, sea level went up onemeter every 20 years.”

– Dr. James Hansen, Director Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Two Dangerous Feedbacks

Loss of forests

Melting permafrost

How long can you operate in the red?

...with your car’s engine?

...with your planet?

SOLAR 2006, Denver“Renewable Energy: Key to Climate Recovery”

ASES Study Goals

• Limit additional warming to 1°C beyond 2000

• Reduce U.S. CO2 emissions 60%–80% (?) by 2050

To limit sea level rise to 1 m andspecies loss to 20% this century

Total savings needed by 2030: ~1,200 MtC/yr

Key Energy Options

• Energy Efficiency• Renewable Energy• Coal with carbon capture and storage• Nuclear power

GeothermalPV

Biofuels

Efficiency Biomass Power

CSP

Wind

Energy Efficiency • Buildings (40%) – envelope design, daylighting, better

lights, building and appliance efficiency standards

• Transportation (30%) – lighter weight vehicles, public transportation, better propulsion, PHEVs

• Industry (30%) – heat recovery, better motors, CHP

Energy Efficiency Savings• Electricity: 218 MtC/yr, 0 – 4 ¢/kWh

(20% savings off 2030 projection)

• Oil: 344 MtC/yr, $5 - $30/bbl

• Gas: 126 MtC/yr, $0 - $3/MBtu

Savings: 688 MtC/yr

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

354 MW Solar Electric Generating Systems (SEGS)

Exclude:

- Used and sensitive land

- Solar < 6.75 kWh/m2 per day

- Ground slope > 1%

What’s Left Over

6X U.S. electric capacity!

State RPS RequirementArizona 15% by 2025 California 20% by 2010 Colorado 20% by 2020, 4% SolarNevada 20% by 2015, 5% Solar

NewMexico

20% by 2015

Texas 5,880MW (~4.2%) by 2015

New 64 MWe Acciona Solar Parabolic Trough Plant

Parabolic Trough Output Profile Summer Day

CSP Power Plant with Thermal Storage

HX

HotTank

ColdTank

CSP Power Plant with Thermal Storage

HX

HotTank

ColdTank

50 MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr StorageAndalucia, Spain

Planned 280 MW Solana Plant with 6 hrs Storage

1500 construction jobsover two years

85 permanent jobs

Renewable EnergyArtist Rendition

Contracts for over 4,000 MW of U.S. Projects

1,365 MW

1,750 MW

1,211 MW

177 MW

CSP Savings• Dispatchable power with 6 hr of storage

• 80,000 MW, 6 to 14¢/kWh

Savings: 63 MtC/yr

the POWER of csp

Photovoltaics (PV)

PV Module Prices

Worldwide PV Shipments

PV Savings• 200,000 MWp

• 6 to 28 ¢/kWh (retail)

Savings: 63 MtC/yr

Wind

U.S. Wind Resource

Wind Power CapacityApril 2009

Wind Savings

• 20% grid energy, 245,000 MW

• 3 to 7¢/kWh

Savings: 181 MtC/yr

Wind Transmission 2030

Wood chips Switch grassPoplars

Fats and OilsMunicipal solid waste

Corn Stover

Biomass and Biofuels

Biomass Power

Direct combustion

Co-firing

Gasification

Biomass Power Savings

Savings: 75 MtC/yr

• Wood residues and municipal discards• 45,000 MW• 5 to 8¢/kWh

Routes to Biofuels

Bio/chemical transformation

Ethanol from sugarsBiodiesel from renewable oils

Thermochemicalreductionto “syngas” (H2, CO)

Fischer-Tropsch diesel, gasolineMethanol, other alcohols

Biofuels Savings

Savings: 58 MtC/yr

• Ethanol from crop residues & energy crops• Saves 28 billion gallons of gas in 2030 • $0.90 to $3.75/gal gas equiv.

Geothermal

Temperatures at 6 km Depth

Geothermal Power Savings

Savings: 83 MtC/yr

• 50,000 MW• 25% existing resources, 25% expanded,

50% from oil & gas wells• 5 to 10 ¢/kWh

Putting It All Together

Potential U.S. Carbon Reductions

57% Energy Efficiency, 43% Renewables

$2B/yr$7B/yr$5B/yr$3B/yr$9B/yr$0B/yr

-$108B/yr

Total:Savingsof $82B/yr

What doesit cost?

“Delayed action (or inaction) will most likely be the most expensive policy option”

Stern Review: Cost of action ≅ 1% of world GDPCost of inaction = 5% to 20% of world GDP

Cost of Inaction

Ackerman & Stanton, 2008

Houston, we have a solution!

ASES reportreleasedJan. 31, 2007

Available at: www.ases.org/climatechange

Grid Integration Issues

Spatial Diversity Can Mitigate Intermittency• Utility balancing areas can combine or cooperate – large

electricity markets (example: Denmark/Europe)

Spatial Diversity Smoothes Wind Farm Output

Solar and Wind Complementary:Diurnal

Solar and Wind Complementary:Annual

400

350

300

250

200

150

100Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Hou

rs o

f sun

shin

e or

av

erag

ew

ind

pow

er (W

atts

/m2 )

Average wind power/month

Data from SE Iowa Hours of sunshine/month

PV Coincidence With Load – Summer, ERCOT

16 GW simulated PV system providing 11% of system’s energy

PV Coincidence With Load - Spring

2000 Normal

Min Load

Potentially curtailed PV

Wind Curtailment in Denmark

Denmark has access to large export markets

Lennart Söder,KTH, Sweden, presented at UWIG, Oct 23-25, 2006

Does wind need backup or new storage?

• New storage has value but may not be cost effective

• There is typically already storage on the system– Natural gas in the pipeline or storage

facility– Controllable hydro

• A recent study by Xcel Energy in Colorado found – existing pumped storage provided

$1.30/MWh offset to wind integration cost

– Enlarging existing gas storage facility was economic at large wind penetration

PHEVs* Can Increase Wind Penetration

* Assumes 50% PHEV-V2G penetration by 2050

Grid Integration Costs(Arizona Public Service)

Load Duration Curve

51% of capacity provides 85% of total

energy

36% of capacity provides 4% of total

energy

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/UScoalphaseout_draft.pdf

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2009/UScoalphaseout_draft.pdf

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our

Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle

Visit us online at www.nrel.gov

�and the Role of Renewable Energy ��� “The greatest hoax ever perpetrated�on the American people”?50 Years AgoSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 142007 IPCC ReportIPCC Scenarios vs. Actual Emissions�What the latest �IPCC study�did not include:��Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Arctic Sea Ice Is Getting ThinnerRapid RetreatQarassup Glacier�Greenland�June 9, 2007�12:12 p.m.Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Two Dangerous FeedbacksSlide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34ASES Study GoalsKey Energy OptionsSlide Number 37 Energy Efficiency Slide Number 39Energy Efficiency SavingsConcentrating Solar Power (CSP)�Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Parabolic Trough Output Profile �Summer Day CSP Power Plant with Thermal StorageCSP Power Plant with Thermal Storage50 MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr Storage�Andalucia, SpainPlanned 280 MW Solana Plant �with 6 hrs StorageContracts for over 4,000 MW of U.S. ProjectsCSP Savingsthe POWER of cspSlide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59PV Module PricesWorldwide PV ShipmentsPV SavingsSlide Number 63Slide Number 64Slide Number 65Wind Power Capacity�April 2009Wind SavingsWind Transmission 2030Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Biomass PowerBiomass Power SavingsRoutes to BiofuelsBiofuels SavingsGeothermalTemperatures at 6 km DepthGeothermal Power SavingsPutting It All TogetherSlide Number 79Slide Number 80Slide Number 81Slide Number 82Slide Number 83Slide Number 84Slide Number 85Potential U.S. Carbon ReductionsCost of InactionHouston, we have a solution!Slide Number 89Grid Integration IssuesSpatial Diversity Can Mitigate IntermittencySpatial Diversity Smoothes Wind Farm Output Solar and Wind Complementary:�DiurnalSlide Number 94PV Coincidence With Load – Summer, ERCOTPV Coincidence With Load - SpringWind Curtailment in DenmarkDoes wind need backup or new storage?PHEVs* Can Increase Wind PenetrationGrid Integration Costs�(Arizona Public Service)Slide Number 101Load Duration CurveSlide Number 103Slide Number 104Slide Number 105