The U. S. Official Field Crop

Statistics System

Rich Allen, Chair

Agricultural Statistics Board

Goal

Describe the information flow and key procedures for official

USDA Crop Publications

Approach

Outline timing Emphasize timeliness Describe procedures

Flow

Key dates for 2003 Report contents Report procedures Related information sources

Key 2003 Dates - 1

March 31 Prospective planting report issued by

NASS

Key 2003 Dates - 2

May 12 WAOB issues first WASDE report

projecting 2003 crop production

Key 2003 Dates - 3

June 30 NASS issues Acreage report

Key 2003 Dates - 4

August 12 NASS issues first survey based

forecast of 2003 yields

NASS Crop Survey Year Starts with June

•

June Acreage Survey

Conducted June 1-15 Large List Sample Area Frame Survey Collect Actual Planting and

Remaining Intentions

Area Frame Sample

Each State divided into land use strata

Landsat images used for first level of stratification

Segment sizes and sampling rates vary by strata

August Crop Yield Forecast

List subsample from June Ask for acreage to harvest Ask for expected yield

All producing States Telephone collections July 30-August 4

August Objective Yield

Subsample from June Area Select random fields Plant counts, row measurements

and fruit counts Major States only June 25 - August 4

Later Crop Forecasts

Similar surveys to August Comparable timing September, October and

November Repeat Objective Yield visits

End of Season Yields

Large subsample from June list Acres harvested and yield All producing States Fruit weights from Objective Yield Complete survey by December 15

Prospective Plantings

Subsample from previous June Mail and Telephone March 1 - 15

Estimating ProceduresAcreage

Direct Expansions 1% cv’s US 2-3% cv’s Major States

Ratios to previous years

Estimating ProceduresMonthly Yield

Relationships to previous surveys and final yields

Mathematical models for Objective Yield based on previous years

Estimating ProceduresEnd of Season

Review all survey acreage, yield and production data

Utilize administrative data

Estimating ProceduresProspective Plantings

Survey expansions Ratio to total cropland Ratio to previous years

Estimating ProceduresCounty Estimates

Use all survey data Use administrative data Landsat Classifications in some

States Set Districts from State Set Counties from Districts

Other Crop InformationWeekly Weather Crop

Opinion survey from Extension and other local reporters

April until harvest Designed to measure crop

progress Crop conditions also asked

Other Crop InformationAVHRR Based Vegetation Condition

Data base approach Convert to statistical products

Year to year comparisons Comparisons to median Crop specific masks

Other Crop InformationCropland Data Layer

Crop specific categorized Landsat data

Up to 10 States NASS with State and Federal

Partners Public use GIS format

Agricultural Statistics Board(ASB)

State Offices edit and summarize State Offices analyze indications State Offices submit

recommendations ASB reviews indications at National

and Regional level ASB sets final forecasts and

estimates

ASB Monthly Timing

3-day intensity period Review and set harvested acreage Review and set smaller State

yields Major State yields reviewed and

set only under lock-up conditions

ASB Lock-up Example Timing

Lock-up at Midnight Decrypt State recommendations Set U. S. corn yield at 12:30 a.m. Finish State review by 3:00 a.m.

for WAOB Prepare final report by 6:00 a.m. Release at 8:30 a.m.