The two faces of Narendra Modis developmental model

The two faces of Narendra Modis developmental modelPrepared by: Group 1Nidhi Girdhar (121)Pankaj Madaan(122)J prabhat (123)Manvi Arora(124)Anshul Khatry(126)Ayushi Aggarwal(135) IntroductionThe battle lines appear to be drawn between those who glorify the achievements of Modi the administrator, and those who view the Gujarat Chief Minister through the prism of the 2002 carnage.

In a climate with recurrent scams, lack of governance, economic slowdown and political instability, the first of the two images is a persuasive one.

The two faces of Modi are orthogonal to one another.

In fact, not only do they share a close relationship, but also constitute the core of a politics where religious chauvinism or other forms of social authoritarianism become pre-requisites for economic development.

Hindutva image2In early-July, thousands of villagers on motorcycles took out a protest rally from Dasada to Surendarnagar, adding to the growing clamour against a proposed 50,880-acre Mandal-Becharji special investment region in Northern Gujarat.

Gujarat's approach to inclusive development has had an avalanche of votaries and critics among renowned academics in recent times.

Nobel laureate Amartya Sen said Modi wasn't fit to be prime minister on account of his poor record with minorities and social development, While others such as Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagriya, colleagues at Columbia University, back Modi's model.

Modi has transformed the state into a showpiece for economic growth. But, even as industry and agriculture have boomed, the effects of this growth are yet to trickle down and across its peopleFarmers and graziers around the taluka are unwilling to give their land to the state government for setting up industrial hubs. They have been opposing the proposed special investment regions (SIRs), saying industries cannot match the benefits from tilling the soil and rearing animals.Buckling under pressure, Chief Minister Narendra Modi on August 14 shrunk the size of Mandal-Bahucharaji SIR (MB-SIR)one of the 13 SIRs planned in the state. On May 14 this year, the government issued a notice in regional newspapers announcing land acquisition for MB-SIR. Its plan was to acquire nearly 50,880 ha of farm land from 44 villages of Surendranagar, Ahmedabad and Mehsana districts. Following protests, the government decided to exclude 36 villages from the project.Critics say Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), gave in to farmers demand keeping in mind the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

3Two Sets Of NumbersLet's see some of the claims of Modi, his followers, Gujarat government as the achievements over the years:

In last 10 years, the agriculture growth rate of Gujarat is higher than every other state in the country.

Gujarat is one of the most prosperous states of the country, having a per-capita GDP 3.2 times India's average.

If it was a nation it would have been 67th richest nation in the world above many European and Asian economies like China and Ukraine .

Gujarat accounts for 15.14% (USD 114.52 bn) of the total investments in India; Highest amongst all States in India.7936 MoUs, worth Rs.20.83 Lakh crore (450 billion US Dollars) signed at Vibrant Gujarat 2011.

2,573,213(2.5 million) likes for his Facebook page, 1,974,996(2 million) twitter followers @narendramodi, 54,751 YouTube subscribers to his channel

The state's average growth in GDP has increased from 2.8% to 10.3%. Gujarat is ahead of the national average (7.9%) as well as the two states, Bihar (8.4%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.1%).

It has leapfrogged Maharashtra to lead in factory output, grown well in agriculture, and been a leader in electricity reform and the spread of irrigation

But . . Gujarat has struggled to engineer similar breakouts in its social indicatorswomen, health, education, poverty, wages.

For example, between 2011 and 2011, its sex ratio worsened from 920 to 918, way below the national average of 940.

Infant mortality, at 41 per 1,000 live births, has improved from 60 a decade ago, but the state still ranks only 25th overall.

Its average dropout rate at the primary level was 3%, but shoots up to 29.3%at the upper primary level, against an all-India average of 6.6%

Salaried men in Gujarat earn Rs 311 a day, against the national average of Rs 411

On the highway between Ahmedabad, Gujarat's largest city, and Anand, 90 km to the south-east, 12-year-old Ravi Kishan waits tables at a roadside eatery, at a time when he should be in school.

"My parents admitted us to school, but the teacher rarely turned up and there were no facilities," he says. "Despite all the progress, tribal area development remains a weakness," says Apoorva Oza, chief executive at Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP), an NGO working in the state.

7Manufacturing MagnetModi convinced Tata Motors to move the manufacturing site for its Nano passenger car

Gujarat's administration remains undeterred. It has announced the setting up of 15 large industry conclaves, termed special investment regions (SIRs).

In the past decade, Gujarat has been a magnet for industries of all sizes.

Investments of Rs 317,985 crore have flowed into Gujarat in the past decade.

Assocham - Gujarat received about 14% of all private sector investment in India in 2012, the largest share among all states

Modi convinced Tata Motors to move the manufacturing site for its Nano passenger car from the embattled area of Singur in West Bengal to Sanand in Gujarat. In a trice, a Rs 9,500 crore soft loan (0.1% interest, 20 years tenure) was doled out, and several norms, including those mandating the employment of 85% local residents in such plants, were waived.

8Besides offering industries uninterrupted power and water supply, it also hastens the process with highly networked government offices and online applications;

For example, pollution control nods and land deed transfers are issued in 45 days.

Good Crop, Bad CropGujarat's growth in agriculture has been striking too.

The sector grew at an average of 11% between 2001-02 and 2011-12, against a national average of 3% due to strong growth in cash crops

All of which benefited from plentiful rains feeding a strong irrigation system and an overhauled electricity network.

Surendranagar has seen massive development in agriculture and water management

The state government has various schemes- but complicated.The Town Planning Act, say activists, compensates farmers for only 60% of their land, with 40% taken over for free.

A lot of this land is for the 15 planned SIRs, which hope to attract investments worth $90 billion (Rs 5,00,000 crore) over the next decade.

Much of the SIR development will happen along the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, a large chunk of which passes through Gujarat.

The state is also projecting its long coastline (and multiple ports) as a magnet for investments.

Weak Trickle DownRapid growth can improve social indicators such as health and education and quality of life, "However, Gujarat has been quite pathetic on this front

People in the poor section of the society have to struggle with simple things like food and transport, just like a decade ago.

Between 2004-05 and 2009-10, urban poverty in Gujarat has fallen only marginally, from 20.1% to 17.9%.

While Gujarat has followed the national trend in reducing poverty, it is ranked only 12th among states in the rate of decline.Tribals and migrants, who make up 30% of the state's population, have the toughest odds to beat in Gujarat

"There is no improvement in education at primary level. The government hospital does not have enough staff, and in an emergency, we have to rush to the district town for treatment," says Dilip Dabhi, 34, a resident of Raj Sitapur, a village in Surendranagar district.

The state has relatively few locally-trained teachers, managers, doctors and engineers

The disconnect for Gujarat's urban poor is compounded by the rate of urbanisationat 36%, it is among the highest.

The number of families living in slums and ghettos has increased from 700,000 in 2001 to 1.8 million in 2011.Its three key cash cropsgroundnut, cotton and tobacco are showing signs of strife. Cotton production fell 27.5% in 2012-03, as per Cotton Advisory Board estimates.

In groundnut, it has had to deal with stiff competition from other states like Maharashtra.

Some industries purring in high geardyes, colours, machine tools and pumpstoo have slowed due to a combination of local and global factors.

Proving that Gujarat can look beyond these hiccups, and spreading the wealth deeper and wider, could perhaps be Modi's biggest challenge yet.Dyes and colours has been tripped by stringent environment clearance norms, textiles has struggled to grow beyond its legacy business focused primarily on polyester, and pumps has slumped due to a meltdown in demand. Proving that Gujarat can look beyond these hiccups, and spreading the wealth deeper and wider, could perhaps be Modi's biggest challenge yet.

15

One is the inclusive growth model which UPA and Bihar claim to represent and other, Gujarat's emphasis on higher rate as the solution to poverty reduction

Bihar has adopted that model (development with justice) which caters to the aspirations of the rich and the poor, the upper castes, OBCs, SCs, STs, women and children.

Gujarat has adopted a development based model which caters industrial development and GDP growth .

Modi as the market-friendly growth messiah and Kumar as the poster boy of the welfare state may have made for an extremely absorbing contest in 2014.

The chart shows that Gujarats economic growth in 2001-2011 at an annual average rate of 10.2% was 2.5 percentage points higher than the national average.

Gujarats growth in the prior decadebefore Modi took charge in 2001at 7.5% also beat the national average, by a slightly smaller margin of 1.4%

Bihars economy limped along at an average annual growth rate of 2.7%, 3.4 percentage points slower than the national average, in 1991-2001.

But Bihars growth rate trebled to 8.2%, beating the national average for the first time in independent Indias history, even though the improvement over the national average was by a small margin.

Between 2005when Kumar took charge of Bihars governmentand 2011, the state grew at an annual pace of 10.9%, beating both the national average and Gujarats growth rate of 9.6% during this period.

Modi ensured that the economy did not lose steam by choosing wise economic policies but his performance in driving growth pales in comparison to Kumar.

Currently, Gujarat has the highest per capita income among Indias 10 largest states (when Mumbai is excluded from Maharashtra).

It has the third best HDI score among these large states. This is contrary to the popular belief that Gujarat favours manufacturing, industry and infrastructure at the cost of the social sector.

Bihar does extremely bad on all criteria per capita income, HDI, poverty levels except education where it spends more as a ratio of its small overall expenditure than Gujarat.

Gujarats poverty level is significantly better than the all-India level of 21.9% and half Bihars poverty level of 33.5%.

Gujarats annual agricultural growth over the past decade has averaged more than 10% triple Indias average and it still has the countrys highest manufacturing/industry ratio-to-GDP as compared to Bihar (8.4%).

ConclusionBihar needs to improve on all fronts. Its per capita income is one-fourth Gujarats and its poverty levels twice Gujarats.

Though its annual GDP growth rate is roughly similar to Gujarat's, its low base will make it hard for it to bridge the gap for decades. It is ranked last on HDI.

Its only silver lining is education but here too, as the Chapra midday meal tragedy demonstrated, much more needs to be done to improve school infrastructure despite eight years of Nitish Kumars chief minister ship.

Hence, the Gujarat vs Bihar development model debate is a sterile one

the Gujarat vs Bihar development model debate is a sterile one. Both states should be aiming at meeting absolute standards on economic and social criteria, not engaging in political one-upmanship.22THANK YOU !