the tropospheric humidity trends of ncep/ncar reanalysis before satellite era shi-keng yang (sky)...
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The Tropospheric Humidity Trends of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis before
Satellite Era
Shi-Keng Yang (SKY)
Masao Kanamitsu
Wesley Ebisuzaki
Gerald Potter
Sept-Oct, 2003, CWB, Taipei
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NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS lwcf 4901-7812 12-month running mean
31
31.5
32
32.5
33
33.5
34
34.5
49 54 59 64 69 74
Year
W/M
**2
The Problem
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Outline
• LWCF CSOLR & OLR RH• Natural variability from AMIP ensemble• RH & T trends sampled from 30 Stations• Chronology of measurement changes• A Hygrometer Simulator • Conclusion• Ideas for Taiwan Area Regional Reanalysis
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LWCF = CSOLR-OLR
NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS CS OLR Anomaly 4901~9812 12-month running mean
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Year
CS O
LR W
/M**
2Trop CS OLR
SH mid CS OLR
NH Mid CS OLR
NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS OLR Anomaly 4901~9812 12-month running mean
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Year
OLR
(W/M
**2)
tropics OLR
SH mid lat OLR
NH mid lat OLR
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-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Year
RH
%
49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Tropics
SH mid lat
NH mid lat
NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS 500mb RH Anomaly 4901~9712 12-month running mean
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What are the causes?
• Natural variability?• Instrument changes?• Algorithm/System changes? Station increases?
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The Attributes of Reanalysis GDAS and the Model used for AMIP runs
Reanalysis AMIP-ensemble10
• Convection Scheme SAS RAS• SW Radiation Lacis & Hansen (1974) Chou et al (1992, 96)• Boundary Layer Local Diff Non-Local• Orography Mean Smooth Enhanced• Resolution T62L28 T42L24• Soil Moisture w/ nudging interactive• Snow Obs (fixed on ‘72) Climatology• Radiation Resolution Linear grid/hourly
Guassiagrid/hourly
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30 US Stations Suggested by J. Christy
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Red – 300 hPa
Yellow – 500 hPa
Green – 700 hPa
Black – 850 hPa
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Red – 300 hPa
Yellow – 500 hPa
Green – 700 hPa
Black – 850 hPa
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Green – 75~79 RH mean
Black – 49~53 RH mean
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Green – 76~78
Black – 49~51
T Profiles from 36-month means
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RH differences
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Green – 76~78
Black – 49~51
RH Profiles from 36-month means
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T-dif Profiles from 36-month means
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Taiwan Area R-1 Temperature Anomaly
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Taiwan Area R-1 RH Anomaly
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R-1 Taipei Relative Humidity Anomaly
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R-1 Taipei Temperature Anomaly
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• A Chronology of changes in the US Radiosonde Network from Elliott and Gaffen (1991) plotted on LWCF anomaly to demonstrate the probable impacts.
• 1: 1957 observation time changed on IGY;
• 2: 1960 introduced white-coated temperature elements;
• 3: 1965 Introduced carbon humidity element;
• 4: 1969 changed from manual system to a time-share computer system;
• 5: 1972 redesigned relative humidity ducts introduced;
• 6: 1973 “motorboating” lower RH values as 19% when measured lower than 20%;
• 7: 1974 introduced semi-automatic mini-computer-based system;
• 8: 1979 Satellite measurements incorporated into Reanalysis;
• 9: 1980 New carbon hygristors introduced;
• 10:1985 Introduced fully automatic mini-computer-based system;
• 11:1988 Introduced Precalibrated hygristor replacing individual preflight calibration;
• 12:1988 Introduced new VIZ sonde with new humidity duct;
• 13:1989 Introduced fully automatic micro-computer-based system.
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Sensor in Use
• Goldbeaters Skin – (Russia, China)
• Carbon Hygristor – (USA[part], India, China?)
• RS80 Humicap A or H – (50% of global net work)
• RS90 Humicap – (Finland +??)
• Meteolabor “Snow White” – (working reference)
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Challenge of Radiosonde water vapor measurements I
• Very large range of saturation vapor pressure with temperature– 20 oC 23 hPa– -20 oC 1.2 hPa– -50 oC 0.04 hPa – -80 oC 0.0005hPa
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Challenge of Radiosonde water vapor measurementsII
• Sensor temperature induced error– @ 20 oC 6%/deg wrt water – @-20 oC 7%/deg wrt water– @-50 oC 7%/deg wrt water
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Radiosonde intercomparison experimentJohn Nash, UK Met Office
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Radiosonde intercomparison experimentJohn Nash, UK Met Office
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Radiosonde intercomparison experimentJohn Nash, UK Met Office
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Radiosonde intercomparison experimentJohn Nash, UK Met Office
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Hygristor Time constants
• Carbon hygristor 1~2 sec at sfc
• Thin Film 1~2 sec at sfc
• Goldbeater, Hair >10 sec at sfc, 5min 300 hPa
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Hygrometer simulatoran educational toy
(T) = 3+ 5(15-T), T< 15 C
RH(i) = RHe + (RH (i-1) - RHe ) exp (-t/ (T))
Time-lag constant of a hygristor is a function of temperature. Based on Nash and Schmidlin, 1987, we determine that the rate of increase to be 5 sec/ K, so that the time-lag constant can reach 5 minutes at 300 hPa, where the temperature is lower than -40oC. Balloons ascend at 15 f/s.
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Hygrometer Response Lag
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
T in C, and RH in %
Hei
gh
t in
hP
a
1000 hPa
900 hPa
800 hPa
700 hPa
600 hPa
500 hPa
400 hPa
300 hPa
Temp in C
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Conclusion
• The trend of upper air humidity within NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis appears to be an artifact, caused by long time-lag constant in the older hygrometers, and other factors.
• Implies that similar problems, in general, in the time- series radiosonde time-series before the satellite era.
• Significant implication on the earth energy balance and cloud fields of the Reanalysis.
• No humidity climatology yet!• Suggestions: future Reanalyses includes a special fixed observation
system sub-analysis using only the limited well-known, high quality, well calibrated, fixed number stations for GDAS, such that a baseline reference analysis for the full analysis can be established .
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Ideas for Taiwan Area Regional Reanalysis
• Homogeneous High Resolution Environmental Database suitable for comprehensive applications (3000 papers published using R-1)
• An Integration of modern analysis-assimilation system with historical data. Optimization the use of historical data.
• Periodical Benchmarks of Science-Technology advancement
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Some guidelines• Build a system that you can do analysis the 2nd easier than the 1st time• Analysis- ReAnalysis- On-going Reprocess• Analysis Design –Evaluation Cycle ( once every 5~10 years for global)• Modular Analysis System Design• Calibration of measurements and Products• Multiple Stage Process• Multiple Stage Monitoring [ level 3 -> 2 -> 1; 100M/sec max cap by a
person]• Multiple Stage Archival • Other principles
– Process team is the analysis team, stack holder– Periodical Outside Evaluation– Re-packaging at each cycle – Start with EDR, and recycle for CDR– Mutiple algorithms if possible.
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Status: NCEP Regional Reanalysis
Geoff DiMego (NCEP/EMC)
Eugenia Kalnay (U Md)
Fedor Mesinger (UCAR)15 March 2000
NCEP
Where America’s climate and weather services begin
Office of Global Programs
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O B J E C T I V E
• A long-term set of consistent climate data produced at a regional scale
• 51 Years of the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis have been completed!
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Regional Reanalysis Rationale
• NCEP’s Meso Eta Model produces more accurate data assimilation and forecast results than the current global system.
• Improved data sources and techniques are available to improve upon the Global reanalysis
• Higher resolution for North American domain– 32 km / 45 layer Meso Eta regional reanalysis– T62 (~200 km) / 28 layers global reanalysis
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Eta 2m temperature Eta 2m specific humidity
AVN 2m temperature AVN 2m specific humidity
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Eta skin temperature Eta soil moisture 0-10cm
AVN skin temperature AVN soil moisture 0-10cm
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Regional Reanalysis Features
• Unique resources can be added to the global reanalysis baseline:– assimilation of observed precipitation & cloud– direct analysis of satellite radiances with
3DVAR– mature Meso Eta Model due, in part, to GCIP
supported developments
• Additional data sources • 22 year period to be reanalyzed: 1982-2003