the transportation demand forecasting model of taichung rapid transit system (tcmodel 2011) teresa...

The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System

(TCModel 2011)

Teresa Chang, Planner

2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference

Sept. 5, 2012

2Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau

Presentation Outline

Background of the Study AreaWhat Do We Want to Know?Why Do We Update?How Do We Update? Introduction of TCModel 2011

Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau

Background— Study Area

Taichung(29)

Changhua(19)Nantou(2)

Changhua

Taichung

Nantou

• Study Area – Taichung UrbanCountys: Taichung, Changhua, NantouTowns: 50Area: 3,062.3 KM2

Population: 3.95million people

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Taichung

Changhua Nantou

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Background -Railway Master Plan Operations

Taiwan Rail(gray) Taiwan High Speed Rail

(yellow)

Construction TR-Red Line

(the project completion year is 2015)

MRT-Green Line (the project completion year is 2017) Planning

MRT-Blue Line MRT-Orange Line


Taichung

Changhua

Nantou

Taichung Airport

Downtown

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Background -Orange Line

MRT — Orange LineFrom OA4To O17Length,km (elevated) 14.7Length,km (underground) 14.8

Total Length,km 29.5Stations (elevated, ) 8Stations (underground, ) 13

Total number of stations 21MRT System MCTDepot 1Transfer Stations ( , ) 2

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Depot

OA4

OA3

OA2OA1

O1O2

O3

O4/G7

O9/B9

O5 O6

O7O8

O14

O16

O17

O15

O13O12O11

O10

Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau 6

What Do We Want to Know?

• Percent of Private Trips to Total1• Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day) and Revenue 2• Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area3

• Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips)4• Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel

operating cost reductions)5

• Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits)6• Emission Reductions (CO, NOx PM10)7

When the future wil build Orange Line , ……

• Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies8


Why Do We Update?

1994 1998 2003 2009

•Tranplan+ Transport•Base Year: 1988•Future Year: 2020•TAZs: 138(132+6)zones•Household Travel

Survey: 1990 (Samples: 12,000)

•Tranplan+ Transport•Base Year: 1994•Future Year: 2021•TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones•Household Travel

Survey: 1995 (Samples: 1,700)

•TransCAD•Base Year: 2001•Future Year: 2031•TAZs : 257(253+4)zones•Household Travel

Survey: No

•TransCAD•Base Year: 2007•Future Year: 2031•TAZs: 257(253+4)zones•Household Travel

Survey: No

Development of TC Model

The Household Travel Survey has been not conducted since 1995.TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps.Final model only has OD matries and the highway network.

These data are out-of-date, incomplete or inaccurate.


How Do We Update ?

TCModel 1994 Update

Update screen line survey and cordon line

survey

Reconstruct the highway

network and transit network

Check and update the

Traffic Analysis Zones

Update and forecast the

demographic data

Check and adjust trip generation

rates

Select a new modeling platform(CUBE)

Update travel behavior survey

TCModel 2011

Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy !

Better Data

Better Data

Better Data

Better DataBetter Data

Better Data

Good Tools

Major updates


How Do We Update ? –Model Methodology Outline

Traffic Assignment• HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model• PT: Best-Path

Mode Split•Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference•Multinomial Logit Model(MNL)

Trip Distribution•Gravity Model• Impedance Function: Gamma Function

Trip Generation• Production: Cross-classification• Attraction: Multiple Regression

Module Approaches

Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model


Trip GenerationTrip Distribution

Traffi c Assignment

Mode Split

Introduction of TCModel 2011–Model Structure

4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure


Introduction of TCModel 2011–Model Characteristics

Analytical Modes•Car•Motor•Bus•Taiwan Rail•MRT

Analytical Period•Weekday•24hrs • Peak hour

Network•Total number of

links: 42,681 links•Transit Lines: 335

lines

Traffic Analysis Zones

• Internal: 320 zones•External: 7 zones•Reserve: 16 zones•Total number of

zones: 343 zones


Introduction of TCModel 2011–Scenario Management Interface

Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) , 2041(Y130) Scenarios:

Land Use Policies: Without TOD , With TOD Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare

This provides a convenient interface for defining scenarios, editing and running the scenarios.


Introduction of TCModel 2011–Applications of Model Outputs

Boarding Passengers Passengers Per Hour in Peak

Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d) Passenger Kilometers Traveled

(PKMT) Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT) Vehicle Kilometers Traveled

(VKMT) Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) Average Speeds Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios

Model Outputs

Station Design Train Operation Plan Economic Benefit-Cost

Analysis Financial Viability

Analysis Policy Analysis Traffic Impact Analysis Sreen Line Analysis

Applications of Model Outputs

The end Thank you!


E-mail : [email protected]

the transportation demand forecasting model of taichung rapid transit system (tcmodel 2011) teresa...

Documents

hong kong

future year

zones household travel

update screen line survey

cordon line survey

transcad base year

mrtgreen line

project completion year