the top 5 global megatrends in higher education

The top 5 global megatrends in higher education

5 June 2021

The Brand Education2 The Top 5 Global Megatrends in Higher Education

Abstract The 2020s are set to be a highly challenging decade for university brands. We’ve joined forces with our partners Metamorphosis Digital Advisory to help universities navigate the challenges that await. Bringing our shared sector expertise to bear, we identify five ‘megatrends’ set to shape international higher education, and the brand opportunities that arise from each.

These are:• Declining overall growth in international students • Declining growth in Chinese international students • AI and automation • The rise of Generation Z• The climate emergency

This report will consider each of these challenges in the context of global higher education. It will go on to consider the role branding and marketing can play in preparing universities to meet these.

Who is this report for?This report is aimed primarily at university leaders, with a focus on branding and marketing. While illustrative examples come mostly from the US and UK, the focus is on international higher education. The challenges and opportunities are relevant to a global audience.

It will be of broad interest to anyone working in university administration or with an interest in the higher education sector. It may be of utility to those involved in HE policy, providing a framework on which national competitiveness can be built.

The Brand Education The Top 5 Global Megatrends in Higher Education3

Contents Introduction

Challenge: Universities are competing for a shrinking pool of international students

Opportunity: Universities must conduct research into potential prospects and how they can be reached

Challenge: Slowing growth in Chinese international student numbers

Opportunity: Drop geo-based marketing and treat students as learners and not markets

Challenge: AI and automation

Opportunity: Focus on future-ready skills, state-of-the-art facilities, and pioneering research

Challenge: The rise of Generation Z

Opportunity: An authentic approach that foregrounds Gen Z values

Challenge: The climate emergency

Opportunity: Show prospects how they can make a difference; lower carbon study options

Conclusion

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4 The Brand Education The Top 5 Global Megatrends in Higher Education

Introduction In order to survive an uncertain future, universities must be ready for new challenges ahead. We have collaborated with Metamorphosis Digital Advisory to help institutions around the world understand the ‘megatrends’ that are set to shape international higher education. Building on our shared sector expertise and brand thinking, we identify the challenges and opportunities arising from each of these.

The institutions most likely to prosper are those able to adapt to the new paradigm of international higher education. Those who fail to, may struggle. We have identified five megatrends. They are as follows:• Declining overall growth in international students • Declining growth in Chinese international students • AI and automation • The rise of Generation Z• The climate emergency

Each will require university leadership to take action. Coronavirus has accelerated some of these trends and made the need for action even more urgent. But we’re sure readers can already see, each was already well underway, some irresistibly so. We hope, therefore, that proactive institutions have already begun to take action or at least consider these challenges.

Many of the necessary adaptations will be at an institutional or even governmental level. We do not yet fully understand the shockwaves that will be produced by the events beginning in 2020. Branding and marketing will undoubtedly play a key role, however, in how well universities adapt to these new challenges.

This report will outline these five megatrends, along with a consideration of the role of branding and marketing in addressing them. We hope it will serve as a framework through which university leaders can begin to structure their plans to build the resilient brands of the future.


Ultimately addressing these challenges will not just be about building stopgap solutions, but completely reframing the way universities operate.


Universities are competing for a shrinking pool of international students


Challenge: Universities are competing for a shrinking pool of international students Growth in the overall number of international students has been gradually slowing in recent years. Coronavirus has catalysed this trend.

Most borders remained opened to international students with visa arrangements in place during 2020 (some, such as Australia, were a bit tougher).1 The prospect of quarantine and lockdown, however, certainly has made international study a less enticing proposition. The slow responses of certain host nations to the virus threat won’t have helped.

We can add paying top-rate tuition fees for now mostly online courses, after having travelled halfway across the world for the pleasure. Online migration has been identified as a pain point in student recruitment.2

While we can hope that campus life will be restored, many are likely to feel less confident about studying abroad. Studyportals figures from May 2020 found 36% of prospective international students were changing their study abroad plans.3 83% of institutions surveyed by the same source anticipated a decrease in international enrolments.4 Three out of four learners around the world believe HE will never be the same.5

This is beginning to bite. In the US, international enrolments fell by 16% in 2020, coming on the back of a 2% pre-pandemic decline.6 In the UK, a 12% decline is anticipated.7

1 https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/advice/covid-19-travel-updates-international-students-uk-us-canada-and-australia2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10734-020-00561-y3 https://studyportals.com/press-releases/36-of-students-consider-changing-their-academic-plans-due-to-covid-19/4 https://studyportals.com/press-releases/36-of-students-consider-changing-their-academic-plans-due-to-covid-19/5 https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=202011201412204486 https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-16/covid-19-decline-international-student-enrollment7 https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jun/08/universities-face-460m-loss-from-expected-drop-in-east-asian-students-coronavirus


This represents an acceleration of established trends. In 2018, the British Council forecasted that annual growth in international student numbers would slow to 1.7%. This compares to a 5.7% average in 2000-2015. It is predicted that internationally mobile students will settle at 7-8 million by 2025, up from a current 5.5 million.

This will have consequences: increased competition on price, with new lower-cost, regional hubs of higher education emerging to compete on this basis. Traditional Anglophone HE suppliers will face increased competition. Malaysia is targeting 250,000 international students by 2025, France 470,000, and Russia a terrifying 710,000.

This may create a squeezed middle of host countries and institutions. Study destinations that can’t compete on prestige or price will need to offer strong post-study work pathways. Non-elite institutions, forced to compete on price may reconsider whether it is worth it.

It is estimated there will be 800 million underserved learners around the world by 2030. Many live-in countries which will struggle to provide suitable provision. New, lower-cost options may bring these students into the fold.

Opportunity: Universities must conduct research into potential prospects and how they can be reachedInstitutions outside of the global elite must be creative to continue attracting international students. Branding and marketing clearly play a central role in reaching a declining market of international students. Reputation management is essential.

The key will be to emphasise what makes you distinct from the competition. Parroting statistics and statements will not be enough. Institutions that fail to acknowledge this will be forced to compete on price, a potentially fatal race to the bottom.


Branding and marketing efforts must be intelligently targeted and built upon data and research. Universities must become more data-driven, says Deloitte, including in international recruitment.8 Those relying on traditional recruitment bases and not employing data analytics will suffer.

Ask: What is the profile of student being targeted? What do these students value (66% of international students view up-to-date tech as a top indicator of teaching quality, for example)?9 Through which channels can they be reached? As well as shaping brand, this information can help decisionmakers determine courses to offer or foreground. Speak to and understand current international students: a potential goldmine of valuable information.

Clearly, digital marketing approaches take on increased importance in the current climate –consequently, institutions across the board are upping investment.10 Efforts must be joined up across the recruitment funnel, with automation used to reduce attrition and ensure regular contact throughout the process.

Those not competing on price (a dangerous strategy), must show they can offer ‘value’. Market research will determine what value looks like to target students. We will mention online degrees and microcredentials a few times in this report. These may offer paths to value for non-elite institutions, with potential to scale.

Efforts must build on an institution’s unique strengths. Focus on leading courses, rather than spreading efforts too thinly, foreground causes, not numbers. As well as teaching, research, and employment, consider international student support, location-related benefits, and student experience. Prospects will also need to be reassured they’re in safe hands while the risk of coronavirus is ongoing, and for any future public health emergencies.

8 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/covid-19-impact-on-higher-education.html9 Ibid.10 Ibid.


Reputation management must be treated scientifically and creatively, with intelligent storytelling, targeted effectively.

QS data shows that 76% of prospective international students value satisfaction over prestige.11 On the other hand, 61% value high graduate employment rates over satisfaction.

Post-study work routes may be out of institutions’ hands. There is speculation that a need for talent in the corporate sector may lead to improved PSW options in some nations.12 In the UK, the government’s International Education Strategy remains focused on growing international student numbers.13

Whatever happens, branding and marketing efforts can build upon what is there. This will require working in tandem with recruitment officers. Agile ways of working can allow quick action to be taken.14 This should be overseen and coordinated by a dedicated international recruitment team.15

These should not just be the same stats any decent institution can reel off: think about industry connections, one-on-one support, or internship opportunities. Support this with relatable stories.

Success is not guaranteed. Scenario thinking can help frame different future possibilities, and the requirements, challenges, and opportunities posed by each.16 Current uncertainty makes this a beneficial approach at all levels, beyond just student recruitment.

Institutions should map best and worst-case scenarios for the next few years and strive to build resilience in case of the latter.

11 https://www.qs.com/what-international-students-really-want-from-universities/12 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/covid-19-higher-education-scenario-planning.html13 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-education-strategy-2021-update/international-education-strategy-2021-update-supporting-recovery-driving-growth#from-recovery-to-growth-building-on-the-international-education-strategy14 https://www.ey.com/en_us/education/how-higher-education-institutions-can-evolve-in-a-post-covid-19-world15 https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=2020112014122044816 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/covid-19-higher-education-scenario-planning.html


Slowing growth in Chinese internationalstudent numbers


Challenge: Slowing growth in Chinese international student numbersClosely related to the first challenge is slowing international student growth from China. In previous years, Chinese students have been the engine room of international student growth. Between 2000 and 2018 Chinese international student numbers rose from 40,000 to 662,100.17 This makes it by far the biggest sending nation in the world.

In some nations, fee-funded universities have come to rely (and over-rely) on Chinese students to make up for funding shortfalls.18 In total, students from China accounted for 35% of non-EU students in the UK in 2019/2020 – a 56% increase over five years.19 These students contribute $1.7 billion to the UK university sector each year – contributing as much as 10% of some universities’ total budgets.

Growth, however, has been flattening, with signs in 2018 and 2019 that this boom was coming to an end.20 Among other factors, we have seen international degrees lose their cachet. It is no longer a guarantee of a good job, reported China Daily in 2018.21

There’s also the issue of the ageing Chinese population, with the ‘bubble’ moving through the 18-25 age bracket. This will naturally lessen the supply of prospective international students.

Coronavirus has exacerbated this, as host nations ‘addicted’ to Chinese students are finding out.22 This extends to national economies: Chinese students contribute $15 billion each year to the US economy, for example.23

17 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3087365/coronavirus-us-tensions-slow-tide-overseas-chinese-students 18 https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/23/uk-universities-accused-overreliance-fees-chinese-students19 https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/27-01-2021/sb258-higher-education-student-statistics/location20 https://monitor.icef.com/2019/04/chinas-foreign-enrolment-growth-flattened-out-in-2018/21 https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201805/16/WS5afb6d35a3103f6866ee8953.html22 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/universities-forced-to-face-addiction-to-foreign-students-money23 https://qz.com/1923859/chinese-students-are-steering-clear-of-the-us/


It is expected that the UK will see a 20% reduction in Chinese and other East Asian students, causing a £460 million loss of income to the sector.24 In Australia, the cost is estimated to reach A$16 billion by 2023 ($12.3 billion).25 At the University of Sydney, 25% of the student body are Chinese. Australia’s strict border lockdowns are estimated to have cost this one university alone A$200 million ($154 million USD). The University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign reportedly took out $60 million insurance against a one-year drop in Chinese student enrolments.26 This trend will clearly cause pain.

The growth years came as a rapidly growing Chinese middle class, and a shift to a service economy, meant that domestic provision could not meet demand. Things have changed, however. Long-term policy, exemplified in Projects 211 and 985, and more recently the Double First-Class University Plan, has seen a drastic improvement in the quality and quantity of Chinese universities.27 It was estimated at one point China was building a university every week.28

This shift is not just aimed at domestic students. China has also shifted to become a study destination. In 2019, it hosted 492,000 students, putting it level with the UK, behind only the US.29 Had it not been for coronavirus, we may well have seen the long-standing target of 500,000 international students by 2020 reached. Some projected future scenarios see the balance of international study shifting decisively to the east.30

24 https://qz.com/1923859/chinese-students-are-steering-clear-of-the-us/ 25 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00131857.2020.180434326 https://wenr.wes.org/2019/12/the-financial-risk-of-overreliance-on-chinese-student-enrollment27 http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0915/c90000-9269542.html28 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-3577655529 https://monitor.icef.com/2019/11/slowing-in-chinese-commencements-for-most-major-study-destinations/30 https://monitor.icef.com/2019/11/slowing-in-chinese-commencements-for-most-major-study-destinations/


We can view this, among other things, as a bid to extend Chinese soft power – such as from which traditional host nations have long benefited. Economically, China remains the world’s growth engine, though certainly still has some way to go in terms of international reputation.31

Opportunity: Drop geo-based marketing and treat students as learners and not marketsUniversities must reduce their reliance on Chinese students.

This is something that must be addressed at governmental level. A marketisation of HE means that universities rely on Chinese students for money. With this cashflow stymied, this funding model must be reconsidered.

At an institutional level, the decision will be whether to make up the shortfall with international students from elsewhere. The numbers are there, remember that 800 million by 2030, but they will not have the same financial power.

The circumstances that drove Chinese student growth are unique – 1.4 billion people, a rapidly growing middle class, insufficient domestic provision. There are predictions that we’ll see a short-term recovery in numbers.32 But institutions must become less reliant on them – or any other ‘low-hanging fruit’ with which they might be tempted to replace them.33 Indian students may seem to fit this definition, but will not serve as a like-for-like replacement.

Proactive institutions will certainly be rattled enough to begin to look beyond this boom-and-bust approach. Relying on Chinese students now looks like a business model risk, in the context of wider tuition fee dependency.34 35 The aforementioned UK International Education Strategy highlights the importance of diversifying the pool of international students.36

31 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/china-still-the-worlds-growth-engine-after-covid-1932 https://www.eiu.com/n/how-will-the-coronavirus-affect-outbound-chinese-students/33 https://bized.aacsb.edu/articles/2020/september/international-student-recruitment-in-times-of-global-crisis


Recruitment efforts should target a global audience of individuals, therefore, not markets. Essentially, the classic ‘market, then learner’ approach must be flipped.

From a branding and marketing perspective, this means it’s time to stop using national target markets as cash cows. There are undeniably keenly felt differences across borders. Nonetheless, we live in a connected world in which many will share hopes, fears, and ambitions.

Central to this new strategy will be identifying audiences. This will take analytical work, in order to define and then target these audiences. The process may be expensive and time-consuming, potentially a stretch too far for some institutions. But it may also be instrumental to long-term survival.

Marketing efforts must capture the imagination of this target audience. They must speak to their values and aspirations, promising them a stimulating educational experience with highly positive outcomes, and value for money. They should also seek to address their fears, related to their own futures, society, and the planet.

Do not base this on assumptions. It’s important to be in constant dialogue with this audience, to really get to know them. Universities must prioritise building authentic relationships with future students, on which reputations which resonate for years to come can be built.

34 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/higher-education-issues-and-enterprise-risk-management.html35 https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/public-sector/us-top-risks-higher-education.pdf36 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-education-strategy-2021-update/international-education-strategy-2021-update-supporting-recovery-driving-growth#from-recovery-to-growth-building-on-the-international-education-strategy


AI and automation


Challenge: AI and automationAI and automation are set to reap existential changes in nearly every industry, from manufacturing to medicine.37 Commentators call this the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The WEF predicts that 1.2 billion workers worldwide will be affected by automation and AI by 2030.38 This work will be worth 50% of the world economy, disrupting $14.6 trillion worth of wages.

McKinsey predicts that over 100 million workers across eight of the world’s largest economies (China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US) may need to switch jobs in the same period.39 This is equal to one worker in every 16 across these markets. Traditionally more vulnerable workers are set to be the most affected: women, minority groups, young people, and those with a lower level of education. ‘Low-skilled’ work will be highly impacted.40 Despite this, AI will create new opportunities. Demand for AI skills increased by 190% between 2015 and 2017 alone.41 Many of the new jobs created will be in the same sectors where low-skill employment has been eroded – creating new, well-paid opportunities for those who can upskill.

LinkedIn’s top-10 in-demand skills list for 2020 was dominated by new technologies, not just those related to AI and automation.42 Blockchain topped the list, but lower down we also find cloud computing, UX design, business analysis, and scientific computing, as well as artificial intelligence.

37 https://hbr.org/2019/10/ai-can-outperform-doctors-so-why-dont-patients-trust-it 38 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/future-of-work/39 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/100-million-workers-may-need-to-switch-occupation-by-2030-chart40 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/automation-robot-employment-inequality41 https://www.wired.com/story/automation-may-take-jobs-but-ai-will-create-them/42 https://www.linkedin.com/business/learning/blog/learning-and-development/most-in-demand-skills-2020


Covid has had an impact. WEF figures show the decline in redundant roles is set to accelerate to a faster rate (from 15.4% to 9% of the workforce by 2025) than the increase in emerging professions (7.8% to 13.5% by 2025). Nonetheless, by 2025, 97 million new roles will emerge “adapted to the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms”, while 85 million jobs will be displaced.43

This trend is not focused on higher education alone: AI and automation will affect the entire global workforce. The role of universities in responding to this challenge, however, is clear.

Are they doing enough? Against high demand for AI skills, we are still faced with a considerable skills gap. According to Deloitte, 48% of US companies carrying out a high level of AI projects reported at least a moderate AI skills gap.44 Nearly half of these (23%) reported a major or extreme shortage. Less AI-focused organisations reported similar statistics.

In the UK, only 15% of companies are classed as ‘AI pros’ by Microsoft – lower than the global average of 23%.45 The failure rate of AI projects (those generating no value) stands at 29%, versus an average of 19%.

Opportunity: Focus on future-ready skills, state-of-the-art facilities, and pioneering researchIn the current climate, prospective students are justifiably concerned about their futures. Many are attuned to the rapidly shifting demands of an ever-changing labour market. They need to know the skills they gain on a degree will still be relevant by the time they look for jobs.

There are two ways in which these questions can be addressed: explicitly and implicitly.

43 https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020/digest 44 https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/6969_TMT_Thinking-fast-charticle-AI-skills-and-workforce/figures/6969_figure.jpg45 https://news.microsoft.com/en-gb/2020/08/11/uk-faces-ai-skills-gap-microsoft-report-reveals/


Explicitly, learning outcomes should be pegged to trends in the labour market. Materials should make clear that course offerings will equip students with the skills they need to prosper in the 2020s and beyond. Don’t forget to look into the outcomes of existing courses, leveraging alumni stories. Look beyond tech too, not forgetting the importance of soft skills.

It’s worth exploring and highlighting institutional links to employers, who are ultimately best placed to measure ‘employability’. This is a useful way to identify areas for improvement too.

Deloitte predicts that course offerings focused on advanced technical and agrarian skills (these will also involve automation and AI) will come to be even more highly valued.46

A solely vocational focus poses an existential risk to much that is to be cherished at universities. Nonetheless, it is also clear that universities have certain responsibilities. One such responsibility must be ensuring that those graduating during coronavirus do not become a lost generation.

Helping these students into employment in any way possible will be a key part of showing prospective students their future is in good hands (this is bigger than just AI and automation).47 Pre-pandemic, we were already seeing an uptick in students using careers services in the UK – a joined-up approach would be prudent.48

Acknowledge employment concerns, but we would urge you to not be too cynical in referencing ‘uncertain times’ in marketing materials.49

46 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/covid-19-higher-education-scenario-planning.html47 https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/04/11/redefining-the-employability-agenda-in-the-age-of-covid-19/48 https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/03/05/graduate-outcomes-a-new-report-shows-how-the-focus-on-graduate-employment-has-fundamentally-changed-the-way-universities-operate/49 https://tcf.org/content/report/college-marketing-covid-19-economy/


Beyond outcomes, foreground experience. State-of-the-art learning facilities and technologies should be emphasised. Institutions can even show how they use predictive analytics to drive student success (not neglecting the action taken).50

To get to this stage requires explicit acknowledgement that changes are occurring. Doing so reassures prospects that your institution is alive to these challenges, and ready and willing to adapt. These new technologies may open new possibilities that we are yet to acknowledge.

Implicitly, branding and marketing materials can take this a step further, showing how an institution is leading and driving advancements. How better to guarantee future-proofed careers than by studying at a university that is shaping this future?

These trends are not just going to affect new graduates entering the workforce for the first time. Many workers will need to reskill and retrain. The share of core skills that will change by 2025 is estimated at 40% by the WEF.51 This will entail the reskilling of 50% of the workforce. Employers see the necessity and return on investment of training, and plan to upskill and reskill 70% of the global workforce.

Universities must play a role in this reskilling revolution; those offering low-cost, high-quality, stackable options can prosper. This can help universities play a civic role, supporting local communities and employers. This is a great opportunity for universities to make a positive impact and benefit from a reputational boost. It opens up institutions to new markets of students and allows for the forging of connections with local businesses.

50 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/five-principles-for-improving-student-outcomes.html51 https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020/digest


Flexible provision to cater for diverse learners should be at the core of this, with microcredentials likely to be key. Indeed, new digital delivery platforms open the door to new types of learner, removing many of the barriers to traditional higher education.

With this in place, it will fall to marketers to get the word out and establish ties with local communities. While it (unfortunately) seems unlikely we will see a significant pivot away from the obsession with lucrative undergraduate provision, all learners should be accounted for.

To give an idea of what’s at stake and up for grabs: global MOOC enrolments hit 100 million in 2019.52 In 2020, this figure increased to 180 million.53 Only 19 countries in the world have a population higher than the number of learners that enrolled on a Coursera course in 2020 (80 million). Course partnerships with the likes of Facebook will only serve to increase the appeal to an employment-focused student base.54

Current trends point to a growing wedge between teaching and research.55 Universities must keep pace by offering learning options, or risk losing out on the teaching side to competitors like Coursera. The latter has been recently buoyed by an IPO following its stellar 2020.56

52 https://monitor.icef.com/2019/01/the-year-in-moocs-increased-revenue-and-more-degrees/53 https://monitor.icef.com/2021/03/coursera-filing-provides-insights-into-revenue-drivers-for-online-learning/54 https://www.coursera.org/professional-certificates/facebook-social-media-marketing55 https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2021/01/22/campus-or-platform-what-shape-will-the-post-covid-university-take/56 https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/03/09/coursera-ipo-filing-reveals-company-successfully-monetizing-moocs


The rise of Generation Z


Challenge: The rise of Generation ZThe youngest Millennials, born in 1996, will now be reaching their mid-20s. Older Millennials are approaching 40. Taking their placeat universities around the world is a new generation of students:Gen Z.

The change between generations is, of course, a more subtle shift than this simplistic framework allows for. Nonetheless, the teenagers and young adults of today are clearly distinct from those who preceded them. They possess their own values, views, and visions for the future.

This generation will come of age in a changed world. As the Great Recession shaped the world view of Millennials, Gen Z will be deeply affected by coronavirus, as they enter higher education and the workforce.

They will be coming into a world where technology has advanced to previously unimagined levels. But they will be doing so as the first true generation of digital natives.

So, what do we know about Gen Z?

According to the Pew Research Center, in the US, Gen Z will be the most diverse generation ever.57 Only 52% will be white, compared with 61% of Millennials, 70% of Gen X, and 82% of Boomers. The biggest demographic increase will come among Hispanic Americans, who will account for 25% of the Gen Z population.

Compared to other generations, they are also likely to be the most highly educated (57% enrolment in higher education) and have degree-holding parents (44%).

57 https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/


As we would hope for every young generation, they are politically progressive. 70% of Gen Z want an activist government, compared to 49% of the Boomers (who dominate Congress). Like Millennials, they are likely to believe in a man-made climate emergency (54%, compared to 45% of Boomers – still worryingly low figures for the second-biggest carbon emitting nation in the world).

In the UK, Ipsos Mori stats show that Gen Z are a socially conscious generation. Surveys of school age Gen Z members found that nearly half had been involved in social activism. Over a quarter had not bought products due to concerns over ethical sourcing or production. And 70% do not believe the things a person owns reflects their success in life.58

These hint at a deeper truth about Gen Z: they are cause-driven. They are twice as likely as any other generation to care about issues of equality, and three times as likely to believe businesses should serve communities and society.59 They are also the generation that least trusts businesses to do so.

Coming of age during the coronavirus pandemic has cemented this. Campaign Live stats show that 72% of UK Gen Zers have become more interested in activism and social causes since the beginning of the pandemic.60

We’ve used examples from the US and UK, but the connectivity that was their birth-right means that Gen Z are the first global generation – a generation without borders.61

One final note: while they may not be in charge yet, this is Gen Z’s world. Around one-third of the world’s population belong to this generation, who overtook Millennials to become the biggest generation in 2019.

58 https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/generation-z-beyond-binary-new-insights-next-generation59 https://www.marketingdive.com/news/study-gen-z-cares-about-issues-and-is-skeptical-of-brands/555782/60 https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/why-its-time-know-generation-z/169608061 https://www.occstrategy.com/media/1806/a-generation-without-borders.pdf


Opportunity: An authentic approach that foregrounds Gen Z valuesUniversities seeking to reach the closely studied Gen Z will have no shortage of market research to which to refer.

The above stats show us where to start with Gen Z: namely, a cause-driven approach, rather than focusing on subjects or academic rankings. Presenting study as a road to achieving societal or personal goals (saving the environment, creating a more equal society, becoming a fashion designer or sending rockets to Mars) will resonate.

Six in 10 Gen Z consumers prefer to spend on experiences than material goods.62 This is an important part of marketing to them. Reflecting this, storytelling is often considered to be the way to reach this generation.63 Preferably from someone who can speak to them as a peer.

Competition for attention will be fierce. Gen Zers are bombarded with 10,000 marketing messages per day.64 This, however, does not mean that bitesize content is best. Indeed, Gen Z have been found to prefer longer, more complex narratives.65 Getting this right is an art form, of course. Be creative, but test everything. You only really know an approach is effective when you have the numbers to show it.

However you choose to approach Gen Z, we hope at this stage that we no longer have to emphasise the importance of authenticity.66

67 68 69 If a university’s purported brand values are not lived (particularly those related to the environment or equality), Gen Z will sense it – and share it on social media. This could do irreparable damage to a brand. Marketers must tread carefully and be sure to be in step with wider institutional policy.70

62 http://www.millennialmarketing.com/research/63 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jefffromm/2018/06/14/why-storyliving-brands-win-with-gen-z/?sh=4fcb8ad07d7264 https://www.ama.org/partners/content/Pages/why-customers-attention-scarcest-resources-2017.aspx65 https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2019/12/12/the-future-social-media-changing-and-it-s-all-thanks-generation-z


Gen Z are crowdsourcers, seeking information from their peers.71

They will not trust you if these peers tell them something different to your supposed narrative.

According to Campaign Live, the three words UK Gen Zers would choose to describe themselves are: introvert, fast learner, and driven.72

University marketing and branding campaigns can play to these qualities. The introverted-ness can be ascribed to their being digital natives. The obvious takeaway is to use digital communication channels which play to this: i.e. don’t expect them to make phone calls unless they have to (Millennials are the same).73 The plus side is, they are highly digitally-engaged and will investigate brands in which they’re interested. Just make sure they have plenty with which they can engage.74

By the way, just because they don’t necessarily want to speak on the phone doesn’t mean they don’t want to speak to a real human – even more so than other generations. Don’t try and fob them off with chatbots…75

They pride themselves on being fast learners, exposed daily to the sum total of human knowledge online. Institutions must offer a fast pace of learning. They must also avoid boring them or losing their attention in marketing and comms.

66 https://www.ceotodaymagazine.com/2019/11/real-life-in-the-digital-world-gen-zs-search-for-authenticity/67 https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/LRYQAY2V68 https://medium.com/clyde-group/gen-z-is-all-about-authenticity-59d863b0bdcf69 https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2018-10/NRF_GenZ%20Brand%20Relationships%20Exec%20Report.pdf70 https://www.campaignmonitor.com/resources/guides/guide-to-gen-z-marketing-2019/71 https://www.campaignmonitor.com/resources/guides/guide-to-gen-z-marketing-2019/72 https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/why-its-time-know-generation-z/169608073 https://www.forbes.com/sites/briannawiest/2019/11/04/millennials-hate-phone-calls-they-have-a-point/74 https://www.occstrategy.com/media/1806/a-generation-without-borders.pdf75 https://www.emarketer.com/content/consumers-still-prefer-humans-over-chatbots


Driven is interesting. Here’s another stat: cause-driven they may be, but a study from Morning Consult shows that Gen Zers (in the US) are more likely to say a successful career (69%) and making a lot of money (70%) are very important to them than anything else.76 This is a generation weaned on aspirational Instagram content. Subtly show them a path to these goals.

The one positive for universities is that this is a generation focused on learning. In the UK, 82% believe university is the best path to future success.77 As we mentioned above, they’re the most-educated generation in US history. They want to study and need to gain skills to work in the contemporary job market.

It doesn’t end with undergraduate degrees. Campaign Live stats also show that 79% of Gen Z believe that it’s important to develop new skills throughout life.78

This is another hint that much higher education of the future will be bite-sized and skill-orientated. This is the intersection of the rise of Gen Z with the previous AI and automation megatrend. They are alive to the need to update their skills. Universities which speak to this will benefit.

This is another case for the widening of access to education beyond the 18-21 model. Even Gen Zers will move beyond this category in time.

76 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/gen-z-prioritizes-making-money-and-having-a-successful-career.html77 https://www.fenews.co.uk/fevoices/43807-generation-z-is-changing-how-we-approach-university78 https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/why-its-time-know-generation-z/1696080


The climate emergency


Challenge: The climate emergency We’ve gradually been moving away from university-specific trends to wider global phenomena. We’ll finish with the most mega of the megatrends: climate change. Or, as we should say: the climate emergency.79

We know the figures by now, but let’s reiterate. As it stands, we face a 2.9 to 3.4°C increase in global temperatures. This will have devastating consequences.

Current temperatures are 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to restrict further increases to 2°C, preferably 1.5°C.80

1.5°C may not be enough to avoid catastrophe. We are already seeing severe wildfires, extreme weather events, and the very real prospect of underwater towns.81 82 83 Global hunger is on the rise, highlighting another unjustifiable fact: emissions from the Global North disproportionately affect those from the Global South.84 85

In monetary terms the price of the climate emergency is estimated at $54 trillion at the lower limit.86 Hit 2°C, and we’re looking at $69 trillion. The US economy is currently worth $20.5 trillion, to give you an idea of how much money we’re looking at here. Nb. It’s also estimated that a global shift towards sustainability could yield $26 trillion worth of economic benefits by 2030.

79 https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/80 https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement#:~:text=The%20Paris%20Agreement%20is%20a,compared%20to%20pre%2Dindustrial%20levels.81 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/climate-change-increases-risk-fires-western-us#:~:text=Increasing%20heat%2C%20changing%20rain%20and,they%20have%20in%20the%20past.82 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-5541601383 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/11-sinking-cities-that-could-soon-be-underwater/84 https://unfccc.int/news/un-warns-climate-change-is-driving-global-hunger85 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/scpibackground/86 https://www.vox.com/2018/10/9/17951924/climate-change-global-warming-un-ipcc-report-takeaways


Let’s not forget the UN and WHO’s statement that pandemics result from the destruction of nature.87 Certainly, no one wants any more of those.

This megatrend is closely linked to each of the previous.

Climate concerns will see prospective international students factoring in carbon emissions to study abroad plans. Some will decide it’s not a price worth paying, opting for local, regional, or even online study. New study destinations are likely to arise as a consequence. Many have questioned the merits of branch campuses in recent years.88 But could this be a way to compete for international students losing their enthusiasm for long-haul flights?

We may see China serving increasingly as a regional hub for mobile Asian students. China is currently the biggest carbon emitter in the world. It has planned to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 – requiring high levels of talent and resource. Chinese students will be attracted to this domestic challenge.89

Automation and AI can be used to embed green working practices – if done right.90 91 Joined-up intelligent systems can increase manufacturing efficiency, reduce emissions from travel and logistics, and reduce the risk of accidents. AI can also be leveraged directly in the fight against global heating, to help us map, understand, and prevent the changes underway.92

87 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/pandemics-destruction-nature-un-who-legislation-trade-green-recovery88 https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/are-branch-campuses-withering89 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/05/china-plan-net-zero-emissions-2060-clean-technology90 https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2018/06/05/artificial-intelligence-climate-environment/91 https://www.iisd.org/articles/automation-environment92 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/artificial-intelligence-climate-change


Finally, there’s Gen Z, which has given us Greta Thunberg. This is a generation for whom the climate emergency is a real and immediate threat: the first generation that cannot afford to say it’s someone else’s problem. Accordingly, this is their number one fear.93 But fear doesn’t mean despair: this is a generation that strongly believes in its own ability to effect change.94 95 That social and environmental justice should be a priority.96

Opportunity: Show prospects how they can make a difference; lower carbon study options Much key climate research is being carried out at universities.97 Not just in STEM, but in social sciences and humanities subjects too.98 99

This represents a huge opportunity. Highlighting the work and research being done at an institution shows that it is engaged with global challenges. Data indicates that environmental sciences are the disciplines that garner most media and social media coverage. Leverage this.100

To climate-conscious prospective students, this opens up university study as a way to make a difference. Remember cause-driven Gen Z? This is the biggest cause there is.101 So much so that specific university rankings exist to measure institutions on the metric of climate action.102 Also highlight university-wide initiatives. Reporting reduced carbon footprints has been found to be highly effective in marketing.103 93 https://www.forbes.com/sites/emanuelabarbiroglio/2019/12/09/generation-z-fears-climate-change-more-than-anything-else/94 https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/allstate/getting-gen-z-primed-to-save-the-world/747/95 https://www.forbes.com/sites/markcperna/2019/12/27/gen-z-is-already-changing-the-world-just-ask-times-2019-person-of-the-year/96 https://www.forbes.com/sites/deloitte/2020/09/16/millennials-and-gen-zs-are-shaping-a-better-world-for-us-all/97 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-58214-698 https://unfccc.int/files/methods_and_science/research_and_systematic_observation/application/pdf/21_rogers,_ihdp_social_sciences_contributions.pdf99 https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2019-12-08-climate-change-and-the-humanities100 https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2021/01/22/campus-or-platform-what-shape-will-the-post-covid-university-take/101 https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/best-universities/top-universities-climate-action102 https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/best-universities/top-universities-climate-action103 https://www.hec.edu/en/knowledge/articles/role-marketing-climate-change-carbon-footprinting-and-pricing


This is an opportunity to make an emotional connection with students. To excite them, to pique curiosity, and to empower them to be agents of change.

In all cases, however, remember an institution’s green credentials must stand up to scrutiny: the keyword again being authenticity. If a university asserts that it is playing a key role in the climate emergency, but has close links to, say, fossil fuel industries, this will come to light.104

An approach must be measured, therefore. Once again, brand must be aligned with what’s going on elsewhere. Authentic engagement is at the core of this. The rise of regional education will change patterns of student mobility. Perhaps this will mean that the profiles of students interested in certain destinations will change, with new demographics taking the place of old. This will be the case in both traditional and emerging destinations.

Those with HE sectors deeply engaged in climate science may prosper, as students look to get involved in helping to reverse current deadly trends. Those reliant on more general business/management type qualifications may do less well.

A number of factors point towards an increasing focus on online provision. Online degrees offer reduced carbon footprints, access to those 800 million underserved learners, and slowing of brain drains by upskilling students in their home markets. They also allow further scope for the microcredentials that look set to play a central role in the upskilling and reskilling revolutions of Industry 4.0.

104 https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/russell-group-universities-received-ps60m-in-funding-from-coal-oil-and-gas-sector-in-last-five-years-b1761160.html


Research has shown that online learning can deliver equally strong outcomes.105 Students too, despite some reservations, have shown an openness to flexible, online learning.106 This is Gen Z, remember, a generation raised swiping iPads. Online education can also play a key role in providing provision to underserved domestic groups.107

This is a battleground on which the universities of the 2020s will compete. Moving quickly on this as part of university branding can pay dividends reputationally. Many believe universities will never be the same after 2020.108 Embracing this change rather than resisting could be key in ensuring competitiveness. This may also help pre-empt the new challenge from online course providers.

105 http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/1902/3009106 https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/27/students-like-the-flexibility-why-online-universities-are-here-to-stay107 https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/07/30/survey-data-reveal-impact-covid-19-perceptions-online-education108 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01518-y


ConclusionNot since World War II has anything impacted so much of the planet as coronavirus. Higher education has certainly felt the effects, and the sector that emerges in the aftermath of the pandemic and likely accompanying recession may not resemble that we knew before.

This report, however, is not just about coronavirus. It’s about the future survival of a sector already facing existential threats. The virus has merely served to confront us with some home truths – that many institutions have not been doing enough to deal with the challenges ahead; have been resting on their laurels assuming that things would remain as they were forever.

It has posed an ultimatum – acknowledge these threats or suffer the fatal consequences.

We say ‘threats’ because that’s what Metamorphosis Digital Advisory’s five megatrends will be if not properly addressed. For institutions that are proactive, and build a coherent structured approach, we can use another word: “opportunities”.

These institutions will remain competitive and even prosper in this new paradigm.

There is no one-size-fits-all option. Each university must look carefully at their own position in the market, celebrate its own strengths and acknowledge its weaknesses. Most importantly, data and analytics must come into the mix. Actions must be based on qualifiable (if not quantifiable) and demonstrable insight.

Institutions operating in the dark, or relying on presumptions and assumptions, will soon realise the cost. This will be the minimum stake. The winners will be those who do this well.


As we said right at the beginning, this is not all in the hands of branding and marketing professionals. Governments must create post-study pathways or offer visas according to national skills requirements; serious investment must be made in the sector; administrators and deans must build future-ready course offerings and business models.

Those responsible for branding and marketing, however, have a huge role to play. They must build a brand identity that resonates with the values and challenges of the 2020s. They must identify and reach the students of the future, telling stories that inspire and captivate them. And they must obsessively gather and analyse information and data that will drive decisionmakers of all levels towards informed approaches that will allow their institutions to thrive and survive.

Data shows that university leaders intend to foreground reputational capital in the immediate future. This is the time to get them to prove their commitment.109

109 https://www.ey.com/en_us/education/how-higher-education-institutions-can-evolve-in-a-post-covid-19-world