the texas weekly/texas tribune insider poll for the week ... · 9/23/2016 · inside intelligence:...

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 September 2016

The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll

for the week of 23 September 2016


DoyoubelieverecentpollingonthepresidentialraceinTexasthathasDonaldTrumpperformingbelowagenericRepublicancandidateatthispoint?

•"Ibelievethepollingbutpollsdonotgaugeenthusiasm,whichwillbearealfactorinNovember."

•"Therearestatistics,pollsanddamnlies.Getmypoint.The2014midtermpollswereVERYwrong.Youthinkpollsarenotmanipulated?Ifso,you'renaiveandclueless.No,youarepartoftheestablishment."

•"Yes,buthe'sgaininggroundrecentlyasHillaryfaltersandasmanyRepublicansreturnhome,asexpected."

•"IbelievethereareplentyofCountryClubRepublicanswhowillneveradmittheyarevotingforTrump."

•"Thismanisacompleteandtotalimbecile,thecenterofanoperabuffa.Heistheexceptionthatprovestherule;MichaelBloombergandWarrenBuffetcorrectlyridiculehimfornotbeinga


verygoodbusinessman.TherearetoomanywellrespectedRepublicansofeverystripethatbelievehe'sactually,andhasalwaysbeen,aDemocrat:MittRomney,Sen.LindseyGraham,Sen.SusanCollinsandformerPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bush,tonameafew.Toomanyintelligencespecialists,namelyGen.MichaelHaydenandSecretaryRobertGates,believehimtobedangeroustoAmerica'slong-terminterest.Lastly,hiscriticismofSen.McCainisunforgivable.McCainisawarherobecauseherefusedearlyreleaseknowingtheNorthVietnamesewouldgainpoliticalpointsanddemoralizehisfellowAmericanPOWsforreleasingtheson(andgrandson)ofaNavyAdmiral(s)."

•"IfevertherewasaRINO,Trumpisit."

•"Hewillstillwinbyatleastsixtoeightpercent."

•"Ihavefriendswho'restillcommittedtoNOTvoting."

•"Thosegenericcandidatesneverquiteworkout,dothey?"

•"PerformingbelowpriorlegitimateRepublicans,butnotbelowHillaryClinton."

•"No,Idon'tbelievethepolls.Thisisamovementelection.Fromunprecedentedturnoutatralliestorecordbreakingsmall-dollarfundraising—nopollsterorpoliticalpundithasgottenanythingrightaboutthiselectionsofar."

•"Absolutely...TrumpwillbetrumpedinTexas.Meaning...hewillbeheldtosingledigitsfromHillary.Embarrassing..."

•"Contrarytowhatconservativeswouldhaveyoubelieve,moderateRepublicansareRepublicanvoters,too!"

•"Maybeatouch,butnotenoughtomatter."

•"TrumpinlovewithPutin"

DoyouagreewithDanPatrick’sassessmentthatTedCruzcouldbeleft“intherearviewmirroroftheRepublicanParty”ifhedoesn’tendorseTrump?

•"WhenTrumpwins,TCwillbeanegocentricflashinthepan."

•"Ibelieveitnotbecauseonehasto'kisstheking'sring'butaslongasCruzholdsout,heisrenegingonhispromisetosupportthenomineemadeinthedebates.Additionally,hisstatedreasonforholdingoutwasthathisfamilywas

insulted,notbecauseofcoreprinciples.Togethertheygivetheimageofaliarandahothead,whichfliesinthefaceofhispreviouslywellcultivatedimage."

•"Asdadalwayssaidaboutbadchoices,makeyourbedyouhavetosleepinit!Tedsteppedinsomedeep


cowpieattheconventionanditwillbehardtodigoutofit."

•"Ithappenswhenpoliticiansaremotivatedmorebytheirownpoliticalcareersthantheyarebyadesiretoserve."

•"Yes,buttherearviewmirrorisattachedtoahorseandbuggyrig."

•"DanPatrickisthebestpoliticalwindsockinTexas."

•"There'sadangerforCruzinnotendorsing.IfTrumpwinstherace,thedangerwillbeminimized,eveneliminated.IfTrumplosesacloseone,he'sinunchartedterritory."

•"TedCruzisthecrownedconservativeofTexasandhestillhashismoneypeoplebehindhim.IfDanisgoingtotakeaimattheking,hebetternotmiss."

•"IthinktheGOPisredefiningitselfandwho'stosaywhocomesoutflyingtheGOP's(asweknowit)banner."

•"Thecomingwreckagewillrequireserioustriage,butitwillbeforthosewhosupportedthenominee.Iammostdisappointedthattheother16candidatescouldnotdefeathimintheprimary."

•"DependsonwhetherTrumpwinsorlosesandifheloses,howbadly.IfTrumpwinsorlosesbutkeepsitclose(respectable?),thenyeah,Cruzwillbeleftbehind.ButifTrumplosesbadlyanddragsdowntheticket(U.S.Senateflips?),thenCruzgetstosay,'Itoldyouso,'andeveryonewillbescramblingtogetbackonhistrain."

•"TedCruz'snon-endorsementofTrumpistheonlyrespectableactionhe'stakeninfouryears."

•"Hemightbelookinglikeheis'intherearviewmirroroftheGOP,'butifthepollingiscorrectinTexas,therearemorepeopleherenotsupportingTrumpasexpectedandthatcouldkeepCruzaliveinpolitics."

•"ItalldependsontheNovemberresult."

•"TedCruzisalreadyintherearviewmirrorofhistory—hewassuchanoff-puttingcandidatethathecouldn'tevenbeatDonaldTrump.EvenifTrumploses,CruzwillnevergetoutofsingledigitsinapresidentialcampaignagainanditwillbearealshameifnobodyinTexashasthegutstorunagainsthim."

•"Grandstandingisn'tSenatorCruz'sstyle."

•"Cruzisprobablyalreadyapast-tenseplayer.Someonemorecharismaticandreasonable,appealingtoabroaderaudience,willappeareventuallyandwe'llstoplookingatthesecrazyclowns."

•"CruzisgoingtolookgoodifTrumploses.And,ifTrumpwins,Cruzwillbeonthesh*tlistanyway,sohe'sgotnothingtolose."

•"Cruzispasthisexpirationdate."

•"TedCruzisdone.Thisisnotbasedonhisnon-endorsementofTrumpbutratheronTeddy'sbeliefthatit'sallabouthim!"


•"BothCruzandPatrickareontherazor'sedge;eithercouldendupmorepowerfulaftertheelection."

•"TedCruzhasalreadybeenleftintherearviewmirror.Andhealreadyknowsit.LotsoffolksarehopingtoseeDanPatrickintheirrearviewmirror,too.ButDanwillbethelasttoknow."

•"Livebytheconservativebrand,diebytheconservativebrand.Thetrainhasleftthestation."

•"He'smyopicatbest."

•"DependsifTrumpwinsorbarelyloses.Ineithercase,Patrickwouldberight.Cruzwillbehurt."

•"Forawhile,peoplewerescaredtocrossTedCruz;thatisnolongerthecase.HeasksandasksforhelpandtheheartandsouloftheGOPaskedhimforhelpandhemadeitabouthimself,again..."

•"Passthedope."

•"Noloss"

WouldaTrumppresidencyendangerTexasRepublicans’majoritystatusinthenextfiveto10years?

•"Willstrengthenit,andbringnewvoterstotheparty.Yes,IsaidnewandmoreRepublicanvoters."

•"Yes,butIholdhopethathewillgraspthevalueofandbegintousemeasuredmessagingandstatesmanlikebehavior."

•"Butalso,itwillbethechangingdemographicsofthestateandurbanversusruraldominationthatwilltrulyleavetheRepublicansinthedust."

•"TrumpwillspeedtheinevitabledemiseoftheurbanRepublican.Demographicswilltakecareoftherest."

•"Hardtosay.Itiscertainlyaliability—fearoftheunknownwithcertainturbulenceahead.That'swhatisknown.Turbulence."

•"Notlikely,intheirprimaryre-electionbothSpeakerRyanandSen.

McCaindifferentiatedthemselvesfromthenominee.Similarly,TexasRepublicansvoterswilldothesame."

•"Ifhehasn'tcompletelydestroyedtheGOPbrandbynow,howonearthcouldhepossiblydosoduringapresidency?"

•"HaveyouseentheTexasDemocraticParty?"

•"TrumpisaYankeeandwewon'tpaymuchattentiontohim.Oh—yousaidaTrumppresidency.Thatain'tgonnahappen."

•"IfaTrumppresidencymeansthatthecountryissplittingonracial/ethniclines,thepartyreliantonoldwhitepeoplewillloseinthelongrun."

•"TrumpisbringingnewvoterstotheParty.He'spartofthesolution,nottheproblem."


•"IthinkTexasRepublicansaredoingagreatjobofendangeringthemselves...highertransportationdebt,recordtollroaddebt,CPSdebacles,lackofpubliceducationfunding,endangeringtheTexasbusinessclimate,andlackoffocusonthebiggerpicturesissueswhichallowsTexastobeadominantforceintheU.S."

•"Texanswouldwakeupandvote.'SaygoodnightDan.'"

•"Itdependshowheperformsaspresident."

•"He'llbemoresuccessfulthanmostpeoplethink,politicallyandsubstantively."

•"Nexttwoyears"

•"Onlyiftheestablishmenteliteskeepwhining..."

WouldawinthisyearbyHillaryClintonbebetterforTexasRepublicansinthelongrun?

•"IfTexasRepublicanscan'tgetittogetheraftereightyearsofObamanism,thenfouryearsofClintonain'tgonnahelpthem."

•"Meh"

•"She'llcoddleandencouragemorewhowillbecomedependentuponthegovernmentteat.ToomanyofthosevotingwillcausetheRepublicanstogettoofarbehindtocatchup."

•"Theycankeepbashingandsuingthefeds.However,theystillfacethedemographicseachangethatiscoming."

•"ItwouldbebetterforTexasasitwouldpromotemorecompetitivenessandhopefullymoderation."

•"RepublicansarereallygoodatsayingNO,notsomuchwithyes."

•"FourmoreyearsofcampaigningagainsttheWashingtonelitewhoaredestroyingourfreedomsandtakingourguns."

•"Wakeupcall.Wehavenotgottenourshittogetherandwhilewehavenoonetoblamebutourselves—havingthelowestofcommondenominatorsfromtheDemsastheleaderofthefreeworldshouldshocktheSamHoustonoutofanyred-blooded,LoneStarflagwavingTexan.Asageneralstatementofcourse,ifyouareaDemocratinTexasandyouaregenuinelyexcitedaboutyourparty'scandidate—thereisastrongchanceyoudidnotspendyourfirstbirthdayonTexassoil."

•"Shemaybealotofthings,buttherearetoomanyrespectableRepublicanswhoviewherinafavorablelight.ShewasaworkhorseintheSenateandaccruedkudosfromherfellowSenatorsasbeingeffectiveandconciliatory."

•"Allowsthemtoplayopposition,butunlesstheycansellideasoftheirownthatappealtovoters,thentheirgooseiscooked."

•"Asininequestion."


•"AwinbyHillaryClintonwon'tbebetterforanybody—notonlywillournationalleaderbeanamoralandunprincipledliarwhohasmademillionsoutofpublicservice—herpolicieswillleadourcountrydownthepathofmorecorruptionandwhineymediocrity."

•"It'llbetoughforTrumptowinbycomparinghimonlytoHillary.HeneedstoreachouttoTexans.I'mwaiting..."

•"HillarywilldosomuchdamagetotheU.S.SupremeCourt,itisworthalmostanythingtodenyhertheWhiteHouse.EvenaTrumpwouldbebetterthanHillary."

•"Yes,ifthepartystopsfocusingsomuchontheprimaryelectorateandstartsaddressingtheneedsofthepopulationasawhole."

•"Define'longrun.'Ifshewins,itwilltaketwogenerationstoundothedamage,ifitcanbeundoneatall."

•"AHillaryvictoryinTexasisamathematicimpossibility."

•"AwinbyHRCwillempowerRepublicansinTexasforanother10years.TheyhaverunagainstPresidentObamaandwonatthestateandlocallevels."

•"AssumingtheSecretarywins,itwillbehardtostaylongerthanaterm.TheTexasRepublicanshaveanaturalfoilfortheirownpoliciesplusthenationalpushonconservativeissues."

•"Republicansliketohaveavillain,realorfabricated.Makesiteasiertopreyonfear.RememberJadeHelm?"

•"Politically,yes,butthestateeconomycouldsufferunderthecontinuationofObama-typenationalpolicies."

•"Sheisbadnewsandhasbeenconsistentlywrongonmajorforeignpolicyissuesforever."

•"Ofcourse.WhatwilltheAGdoifthere'snobogey(wo-)manintheWhiteHousetosue?Why,they'dhavetomothballthatwholeoffice."

•"JustlikeitwasgoodforRushLimbaugh."


Ourthankstothisweek'sparticipants:GeneAcuna,CathieAdams,BrandonAlderete,ClydeAlexander,JayArnold,DaveBeckwith,AndrewBiar,AllenBlakemore,TomBlanton,ChrisBritton,RaifCalvert,LydiaCamarillo,MarcCampos,ElnaChristopher,KevinCooper,RandyCubriel,BethCubriel,CurtisCulwell,DeniseDavis,JuneDeadrick,TomDuffy,DavidDunn,RichardDyer,JackErskine,JohnEsparza,JonFisher,TomForbes,DominicGiarratani,BruceGibson,StephanieGibson,DanielGonzalez,JohnGreytok,WayneHamilton,BillHammond,SusanHays,SteveHolzheauser,DeborahIngersoll,MarkJones,WaltJordan,LisaKaufman,RobertKepple,RichardKhouri,TomKleinworth,SandyKress,DaleLaine,NickLampson,PeteLaney,DickLavine,JamesLeBas,LukeLegate,MyraLeo,RubenLongoria,HomeroLucero,MattMackowiak,JasonMcElvaney,SteveMinick,BeeMoorhead,MikeMoses,HarrietO'Neill,NefPartida,GardnerPate,RobertPeeler,JerryPhilips,TomPhillips,WaynePierce,RichardPineda,AllenPlace,GaryPolland,PatrickReinhart,DavidReynolds,CarlRichie,A.J.Rodriguez,GrantRuckel,AndySansom,BarbaraSchlief,StanSchlueter,RobertScott,BruceScott,NancySims,EdSmall,MarkSmith,LeonardSpearman,DennisSpeight,TomSpilman,SherrySylvester,SaraTays,VickiTruitt,WareWendell,DavidWhite,DarrenWhitehurst,MichaelWilliams,SethWinick,PeckYoung,AngeloZottarelli.

the texas weekly/texas tribune insider poll for the week ... · 9/23/2016 · inside intelligence:...

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