the ten slides you need to see to understand the manufacturing recovery in the uk : the saturday...

The Saturday Economist : Manufacturing Review

October 2014 …


The Saturday Economist .com

Data Source : ONS : Index of Production August 2014 : Release Date 07 October 2014 : Index 2000 :Q1 = 100

Manufacturing output - many sectors still showing little evidence of recovery as engineering and transport sectors shine …!Manufacturing output has recovered from the lows recorded in recession up by 10% but still some 5% below the peak recorded in 2008. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest growth of 3% this year may remain a challenge, with too many sectors still showing little evidence of recovery.!!In our detailed analysis we identify five sub groups and trends …! !The Superstars of Growth ! : Providing evidence of strong recovery and continued growth, !The Steady State, ! ! : Relatively untouched by recession, !The Rebounds, ! ! : Sectors recovering or showing evidence of recovery from setback : !The Shocked! ! ! : Hit by recession or structural change, with no evidence of recovery!The Terminals !! ! : Sectors demonstrating evidence of continued long term decline.!!Superstar sectors of growth include :!Superstars ! ! ! : Automotive, Transport, Aerospace, Marine, Engineering and Capital Investment Goods. ! !Steady State ! ! ! : Food, Drink and Utilities e.g. water and energy.! !Sectors Recovering ! ! : Paper / Paper Products, Plastics, Furniture, Basic Metals, Iron & Steel !!Still Shocked! ! ! : Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Petrochemicals, Dyestuffs, Paints & Varnishes, Glass, Porcelain, ! ! ! ! Ceramics and Building Products, Cement, Plaster and Concrete.!!The Terminals !! ! : Textiles, tobacco, Computer, electronics, electrical and optical goods.!!!Summary !By broad sector, capital equipment and utilities are 10% and 15% above the levels recorded almost 15 years ago in the first quarter of 2000, consumer non durables are up by just 1% and durable goods, are some 25% below the start of the period analysed. Textiles, tobacco, computer, electronics, electrical and optical goods continue to show evidence of long term decline. Engineering, investment goods, automotive, transport, aerospace and marine are the growth stars in the manufacturing sector. Check out the PDF presentation for over thirty charts analysing the prospects for manufacturing in the UK.!

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Manufacturing output - slow recovery …

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Aerospace … stars of growth …

Transport, Aerospace Marine and Capital Goods the superstars of growth …



“The Superstars”

Basic Metals, Paper, Plastics, Furniture

The Saturday Economist : Manufacturing Review “Strong recovery”

includes alcohol and soft drinks

includes water and electricity


Food, Drink and Utilities including water and electricity…



“Steady State”



The Saturday Economist : Manufacturing Review “Still shocked”




Construction Related, building products

Chemicals, Petrochemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Agro Chemicals

The Saturday Economist : Manufacturing Review “Still shocked”




Textiles, Tobacco and Electrical Equipment …



“Long Term Decline”


October 2014 The Saturday Economist .com

About the Author and the Saturday Economist !John Ashcroft is the Chief Economist for Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce and author of the weekly Saturday Economist. He is Chief Executive of pro.manchester, a member of the AGMA Business Leadership Council, the Council of the GM Chamber of Commerce and a visiting professor at Manchester Metropolitan University.!Educated at the London School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, his specialist subjects include economics, corporate strategy, business modelling and social media. Economics specialisms include the UK balance of payments, international trade, interest rates and exchange rates modelling.!John Ashcroft (PhD) BSc.(Econ) FRSA, CBIM

Manufacturing Superstars : ! !Engineering, Automotive, Transport, Aerospace, !Marine and Capital Investment Products. !!Steady State ! ! ! !Food, Drink and Utilities e.g. water and energy.!!Sectors Recovering ! ! !Paper / Paper Products, Plastics, Furniture, !Basic Metals, Iron & Steel. !!The Terminals ! ! ! :!Textiles, tobacco,!!Overall …!Still too many sectors, including building products!awaiting recovery …!!! !


October 2014 …