the tech several challenges going forward know zone lecture the tech 5 may 1999 gordon bell...
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The TechThe Tech
Several Challenges Going Forward
Know Zone Lecture
The Tech
5 May 1999
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Corporation
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The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948).
Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans– Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices…
the challenge is to exploit them– Computers are built from other computers in a iterative,
layered, and recursive fashion
The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957).– Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the
primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels– A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer
technologies
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Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density – Microprocessor speed
Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change
PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future
systems
Moore’s First Law
128KB128KB
128MB128MB
200020008KB8KB
1MB1MB
8MB8MB
1GB1GB
19701970 19801980 19901990
1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M
1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)
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Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
MiniMini
Handheld ??Handheld ??TimeTime
Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)
PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo
g p
rice
Lo
g p
rice
WSsWSs
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•
Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers
Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card
10$: wrist watch & wallet computers
100$: pocket/ palm computers
1,000$: portable computers
10,000$: personal computers (desktop)
100,000$: departmental computers (closet)
1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)
10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)
100,000,000$: national centers
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Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
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Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
StorageStorageBackboneBackbone
MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing
Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year
????
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Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
1.E+21
1.E+18
1.E+15
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops
40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops
60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops
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Going forward… Seven challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
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Turing test: you can’t tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using:
Text… limited context Voice
– context– speech to text and text to speed
Visual image and voice– more context– synthesis of dynamic, human images
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
The TechThe Tech
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs
HomeHome
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
CarCar
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“Everything will be in Cyberspace” Is this a challenge? goal?
quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables
new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions
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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks
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Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review
and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / storevoice, text are unique bits take on any form
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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.
Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market
– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs
It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment
Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity
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Internetters growth
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year
World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
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Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
ComputationComputation
CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages
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DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
Will we have gateways?
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
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Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk
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New or old money… it’s just bits
Prepaid
Credit
Cash
Check
ATM /
Prepaid
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Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!
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Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? (Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)
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Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,
credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons
stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
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Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling
Telepresentations Telemeetings and telecollaboration The “work”
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Motivation:Telepresentations
• Presenter and/or audience telepresent
NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
Forget the nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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TelepresentationElements
Slides Audio Video Script,
text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
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Telepresentations:The Essentials
Slide and audio a must Add some video
(low quality) to make us feel good
Storage and transmission costs low
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Telepresentations:The Killer App
Increased attendance & lower travel costs
Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real
space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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What about telecollaboration?
… working together at a distance
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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
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Telework: it’s the sound, screens, and bandwidth, stupid
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Mobile videophone
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Honda Robot
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People surrogates
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““
””
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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Living in Cyberspace… the infrastructure
being always connected is essential
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Intrastructure
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SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment
NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP
gateway, file, print, compute
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps
Phone
POTS (legacy services)
*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
LAN
PC NC*PC...
PhonePhone
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Attending simultaneous meetings
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Telepresence Challengehold a meeting of type, m
university or technical course
interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,
with p, distributed persons
with as much interactivity and feeling
such that people prefer being telepresent
meetings are provably more productive
meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous
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Milli-bill, another type of telepresence...
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Fujitsu 42” plasma panel
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MilliBill
Large, general purpose panel– Paintings, photos, videos, a new art
medium, and – even TV– Becomes a true “window” to anywhere
Voice interface Evolves to cover entire wall so that
everyone can be by a “window”
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
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The Guardian Angel
Knows about your state of health.
Has the latest medical knowledge.
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Your husband just died, … here’s his black box
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Steve ManninCyberspace
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Libretto, .5mm pencil
PCS; Pilot
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife
Compass; altimeter
Not shown: ECG; GPS;
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A device that would have saved me from a heart attack
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BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks
Temperature monitoring with the flu Saved me from a heart attack Where is the person, exactly… a baby
sitter Let’s interact… ala Barney
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MedtronicsImplanted
Cardioplasticstimulator
cardio- recorder
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Moore’s law is less important than MEMS
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4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997
Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
Bionic Limbs 2013
Artificial Vision 2040
Bionic Person (unlikely)
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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
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The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory…
When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical parameters.
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What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all
personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge
– recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images
– helps the “guardian angel” What are the apps? when we can do this?
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Vannevar Bush c1945
There will always be plenty of things to compute ... There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated thingsWith millions of people doing complicated things..
memex … stores all one’s books, records, and memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility
Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia
Speech to textSpeech to text
Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography
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My project … putting my legacy and future bits in Cyberspace
http://www.research.microsoft/ Personal paper documents
– Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos, notes, email, notebooks, drawings
Encode video and audio lectures Current electronic media
– email, files, papers, photos (now digital)– voice notes and records
Would like to capture photos and slides
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The other side… finding and getting the bits
out of Cyberspace Retrieval is the next challenge
– Database(s)– Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.)– Icons so people can help the computer
Being able to see and use electronic bits as well as paper bits will have to wait until display technology appears
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Capture and encoding
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HP Digital Sender… color document scanner
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Sony voice notes recorder…
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Evolving cameras to capture images and voice notes
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A word about storage… CDs hold 6 “near VHS quality” videos (300 Kbps)
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Coexisting with Paper Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer
– portable: read anywhere, anyway, anytime– contrast ratio– resolution (3-30x screens)– form factor, weight– ubiquity, cost, infrastructure– with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium
For many documents, paper is very expensive– large and multiple documents are heavy– hard to transmit– difficult to store (only access is via people)– computer cannot access them
Goal: use paper as a loss-less “bit” medium
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Book page
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Computer-Paper Co-existence
Goals for encoding paper for the computer– Handling must be as easy as discarding it– Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve
in every possible context– Interface: unobtrusive and humane
Put all documents in Cyberspace– Ubiquitous scanners are key!– Totally eliminate the need for copiers– Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets
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Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (said), & seen (participated)Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G
speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
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Now how do you find or use the rich information
The system must: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.
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Thumbnails to aid retrieval
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ColorB&W
BrightnessContrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis
Context Relevance
ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
SmartMedia Technologies
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Virage Video Cataloger
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Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
Infinitely scalable systems
The TechThe Tech
Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers
MobileMobileclientsclients
FixedFixedclients clients
ServerServer
SuperSuperserverserver
ClientsClients
ServersServers
All clients All clients networked to networked to serversservers May be nomadicMay be nomadic
or on-demandor on-demand Fast clients wantFast clients want
fasterfaster servers servers Servers provide Servers provide
Shared DataShared Data ControlControl CoordinationCoordination CommunicationCommunication
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Cluster: Shared What? Shared Memory Multiprocessor
– Multiple processors, one memory– all devices are local– DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
Shared Disk Cluster– an array of nodes– all shared common disks– VAXcluster + Oracle
Shared Nothing Cluster– each device local to a node– ownership may change– Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
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SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
Standard (I.e. commodity) platform The SAN (System Area Network) standard
makes the network ubiquitous … and great! Common operating system for platform,
reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps
Cluster technology Apps are TRANSPARENT!!!
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SNAP Systems circa 2000Local & global data commworld
ATM & Ethernet:to PC, workstation,
& servers
Wide-area global
ATM network
Legacymainframe &minicomputer
servers & terminals
Centralized& departmental
servers built fromPCs
scalable computers built from PCs & SANs
TC=TV+PChome ...
(CATV or ATM or satellite)
???
Portables
A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment
Person servers (PCs)
MobileNets
Telecomputersaka Internet
Terminals
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Scaling dimensions include:
reliability… including always up number of nodes
– most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
– highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node
location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations
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Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro
LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)
LNL/Cray: ?
Maui Supercomputer Center– 512x1 SP2
U.S. Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
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192 HP 300 MHz
64 Compaq 333 MHz
• Andrew Chien, CS UIUC-->UCSD • Rob Pennington, NCSA• Myrinet Network, HPVM, Fast Msgs• Microsoft NT OS, MPI API
“Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices”-- Jim Gray, Microsoft
The Alliance LES NT Supercluster
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The Grid:Blueprint for a New Computing InfrastructureIan Foster, Carl Kesselman (Eds), Morgan Kaufmann, 1999
Published July 1998; ISBN 1-55860-475-8 22 chapters by expert authors
including: – Andrew Chien, – Jack Dongarra, – Tom DeFanti, – Andrew Grimshaw, – Roch Guerin, – Ken Kennedy, – Paul Messina, – Cliff Neuman, – Jon Postel, – Larry Smarr, – Rick Stevens, – Charlie Catlett– John Toole– and many others
http://www.mkp.com/grids
“A source book for the historyof the future” -- Vint Cerf
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Infinite or indefinite parallelism… use installed machines
10,000 nodes in 1998 or 10x Increase Assume 100K nodes 10 Gflops/10GBy/100GB nodes
or low end c2010 PCs Communication is first problem… use the
network Programming is still the major barrier Will any problems fit it
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Challenge: Is it possible to use millions of computers for a single, large scale project?
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The end