the tc tornado database at spc background, summary and analyses
DESCRIPTION
The TC Tornado Database at SPC Background, Summary and Analyses. WHY COMPILED. No “standardized” TC tornado database NOAA/NWS/SPC is logical source Need for consistent data for scientific and risk analysis Minimize climatological “shocks” (secular influences) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The TC Tornado Database at SPC
Background, Summary and AnalysesBackground, Summary and Analyses
WHY COMPILED
• No “standardized” TC tornado database
• NOAA/NWS/SPC is logical source
• Need for consistent data for scientific and risk analysis
• Minimize climatological “shocks” (secular influences)
• Database should be flexible:
UPDATABLE: Add new events each year
AMENDABLE: Change historical records as new information comes in or errors are uncovered
DISCLAIMER: Analytic results may change as added/changed data occur
HOW COMPILED
• SPC “ONETOR” WHOLE-TORNADO DATA
Stitched together NCDC county-segments
1139 events in 1995-2008 (none in 2009, 2010 not in yet), will update yearly
Manually parsed TC tornadoes: analytically, no threshold radii or other inflexible criteria
• HURRDAT for TORNADO TIME
TC position interpolated from 6-hourly lat/lon
TC motion based on vector between last and next 6-hourly best-track positions
TC intensity is last 6-hourly OFCL
HOW COMPILED
• IF NO HURRDAT (POST-CLASSIFICATION)
Rare (<1%) of TC tornadoes
TC remnant position and intensity: Used hourly sfc maps (via SPC archives or Plymouth State)
Must still have closed low
• BASIC ANALYSES PROVIDED in TCTOR
Interpolated TC position/motion
Tornado AZRAN from interpolated center
Tornadoes per TC and per year
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
Geography of TCTOR Geography of TCTOR eventsevents
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
TCTOR Summary by YearTCTOR Summary by Year
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
Tornadic TC strength and Tornadic TC strength and ranksranks
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
AZRAN of TCTOR events from AZRAN of TCTOR events from centercenter
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
Motion-relative AZRAN Motion-relative AZRAN of TCTOR events from of TCTOR events from center: center: Northward Northward translation componenttranslation component
Motion-relative AZRAN Motion-relative AZRAN of TCTOR events from of TCTOR events from center: center: Southward Southward translation componenttranslation component
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
CartesiaCartesian:ALL n:ALL
CartesiaCartesian:TS n:TS
CartesiaCartesian:Hurricn:Hurricanes anes
CartesiaCartesian:n:<< TD TD
SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS
AZRANs for AZRANs for IVANIVAN
Distribution Distribution by damage by damage ratingrating
Convective modes for tornado cases Convective modes for tornado cases 2003-20082003-2008
Edwards et al. 2010
Assessed case-by-case for 664 GRIDDED and FILTERED tornadoes
238 DISCRETE SUPERCELLS (36%)
232 SUPERCELLS-IN-CLUSTERS (35%)
64 SUPERCELLS-IN-LINES (10%)
53 MARGINAL “PSEUDOCELLS” (8%)
77 NONSUPERCELLS OF ALL MODES (12%)
(These were broken down by mode…small samples)
APPLIED ANALYSES
MODE EXAMPLE: Discrete Supercell MODE EXAMPLE: Discrete Supercell (Ivan-04)(Ivan-04)
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
MODE EXAMPLE: Nonsupercell in Cluster MODE EXAMPLE: Nonsupercell in Cluster (Arlene-05)(Arlene-05)
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
MODE EXAMPLE: MRGL in Line (Gustav-08)MODE EXAMPLE: MRGL in Line (Gustav-08)
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
Supercells in Supercells in general, general, discretediscrete ones in particular, ones in particular, represent greatest represent greatest
risk for risk for SIGNIFICANT TC SIGNIFICANT TC
tornadoes.tornadoes.
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
MESOCYCLONE CLASSES by MODEMESOCYCLONE CLASSES by MODE
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
Environments of tornadic TC cells Environments of tornadic TC cells 2003-20082003-2008
Edwards et al. 2010
BASED ON 2003-2008 SPC GRIDDED RUC-“SFCOA” DATASET
NUMEROUS PARAMETERS DERIVED FROM RECONSTITUTED GRIDPOINT SOUNDINGS
TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS ANALYZED IN BULK
TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS ANALYZED BY CONVECTIVE MODE
TC AND NON-TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS COMPARED TO EACH OTHER
MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH FOR SUPERCELLS
APPLIED ANALYSES
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSISENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
Edwards et al. 2010
APPLIED ANALYSES
DATABASE ONLINE: www.spc.noaa.gov/www.spc.noaa.gov/
misc / edwards / TCTOR / TCTOR.xls
misc / edwards / TCTOR / readme.txtDOCUMENTATION:
www.spc.noaa.gov/publications
Contact: [email protected]
SPC CALL FOR INPUT
In differentiating organized southeastern pulse/multicell
severe environments