the sun corridor seminar: paf 591, spring 2006 final class presentation instructors: robert lang,...
TRANSCRIPT
The Sun Corridor Seminar:
PAF 591, Spring 2006
Final Class Presentation
Instructors:Robert Lang, Virginia Tech
John Hall, ASU
What’s in This Talk?
Review of Megapolitan Area Geography
Arizona Sun Corridor Geography The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms Central Class Findings What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the
Sun Corridor Project
Arizona Republic
March 2006
Megas In the News
The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged
Business 2.0 November 2005Megapolitan Area Centerfold
Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography
2006 Metropolitan HierarchyTypes Description Examples
Metropolitan Current definition of the Census Bureau
Pittsburgh, Boise
Metroplex Two or more metropolitan areas that share overlapping suburbs but the main principal cities do not touch
Dallas/Ft. Worth, Washington/ Baltimore
CorridorMegapolitan
Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 75 and 150 miles apart that form an extended linear urban area along an Interstate
Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson),SanSac (San Francisco/Sacramento)
GalacticMegapolitan
Three or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities over 150 miles apart that form an urban web over a broad area that is laced with Interstates
Piedmont, Great Lakes Crescent
Megaplex Two megapolitan areas that are proximate and occupy common cultural and physical environments and maintain dense business linkages
Megalopolis and Great Lakes Crescent, Sun Corridor and SoCal
Evolving 20th CenturyMetropolitan Form
21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form
Urban Realms
ArizonaSun
Corridor
Arizona Sun Corridor’sTypes of Urban Realms
Types Description Realms
Urban Core Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out.
Central ValleyTucson Valley
Favored Quarter
The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space.
Northeast ValleyFoothills
Maturing Suburbs
Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges.
East Valley West Valley
Emerging Exurbs
The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing.
Mid CorridorNorthwest ValleySanta Cruz ValleySan Pedro Valley
Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona
2000
Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona
2050
Housing and Equity
Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms
Housing Market Values by Realm Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson
Housing Markets – Simultaneity? Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson
Housing Markets Changing demographics will change the form
of housing.
The Sun Corridor: 10-20 % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live?
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)
The Sun Corridor is a Destination for
People who are Relocating
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)
“The West is The Best”- Jim Morrison, The End, 1967
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Home Price Appreciation in Selected MetrosLA
Las Vegas
PhoenixTucson
Austin
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Estimated Median Market Value
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
NorthwestValley
West Valley CentralValley
NortheastValley
East Valley MidCorridor
Foothills TucsonValley
Santa CruzValley
San PedroValley
Source: www.zillow.com
Housing Appreciation
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
NorthwestValley
West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley
East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley
San PedroValley
1 Year 5 Years 10 YearsSource: www.zillow.com
The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation
Percent Change in House Prices with MSA Rankings
(4th Quarter 2005 House Price Index)
(Period Ended December 31, 2005)
MSA Ranking 1 Yr. Qtr. 5 Yr.
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 1 39.67 7.77 93.02
Prescott 5 31.89 6.93 86.72
Tucson 15 30.02 7.00 81.93Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06
Housing Burden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
NorthwestValley
West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley
East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley
San PedroValley
Cost Burden Severe Cost Burden
Source: www.dataplace.org
Overcrowded Housing
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
NorthwestValley
West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley
East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley
San PedroValley
Source: www.dataplace.org
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
2005 Annual Appreciation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
San Diego Los Angeles Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Albuquerque Denver Dallas Austin
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
5 Year Cumulative Appreciation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
San Diego Los Angeles Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Albuquerque Denver Dallas Austin
Phoenix and Tucson Comparison
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Average Price, Homes Sold on MLS
Phoenix
Tucson
0
10
20
30
40
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Percent Change vs. Year Ago
The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic Median age of White population in Arizona: 40
Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.
Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.– Inclusion of elderly family members in household.– Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a
priority– ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive– Less resistance to attached housing
The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.
Golf Links to Social Links:
Education
Education in the Sun Corridor
How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?
“Living on the Kindness of Strangers”
• Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor
• The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average
• The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average
English Language Learners (ELL)
Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)
Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs
Higher Education in the Sun Corridor
In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)
Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A
Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th
Community Colleges
Sun Corridor is a national leader
The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)
Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training
Leading Realms in Higher Education
State Universities-Main or Branch Campuses
Other Educational Institutions of Note
Central Valley ASU West, ASU Downtown Center
Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management
East Valley Main Campus ASUASU East
Several community colleges
Tucson Valley University of Arizona Pima Community College
Exurban Realms
State Universities- Main or Branch campuses
Other Institutions of Note
Northwest Valley None Prescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Santa Cruz Valley None None
San Pedro Valley None Cochise College
Very Underserved Realms
State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses
Other Institutions of Note
West Valley None One community college
Northeast Valley None One community college
Mid-Corridor None One community college
Foothills None None
Economy
Topics
Composition of the Economy Realm Share of Development Employment Centers
Economic Composition Leading Industries
– Construction/Real Estate
– Consumer Services Secondary Industries
– Aerospace– Producer Services
• F.I.RE• Law, Marketing
– High-Tech/Bio– Military– Entrepreneurial
Opportunities– Baby Boomer Bio– Western Product
Gateway– Next Generation
Infrastructure
Market Share
Inventory – Office Development
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
CentralValley
NE Valley East Valley West Valley TucsonMetro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Inventory – Industrial Development
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
CentralValley
NE Valley East Valley WestValley
TucsonMetro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Inventory – Retail Development
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
CentralValley
NE Valley East Valley West Valley TucsonMetro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Realm by RealmAssets, Opportunities & Challenges
Employment Centers
Economic Development in the Realms
Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs
– Assets• Prescott Airport
– Opportunities• Anthem• Lake Pleasant
– Challenges• Connectivity to
Phoenix• Transportation
Corridors
West Valley: The Sleeping Giant– Assets
• Available Land Mass• Airports
– Opportunities• Future freeway
corridors (303, 801)• Building [sub]urban
core from scratch
– Challenges• Getting someone to
test the water
Economic Development in the Realms
Central Valley: Employment Center
– Assets• Downtown Phoenix• Sky Harbor• I-10 Distribution
Corridor– Opportunities
• Redevelopment• Stadium/Arena
– Challenges• Aging Infrastructure• Suburban Flight• Residential
Composition
Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel– Assets
• Camelback Corridor• Scottsdale Airpark• Deer Valley Airport
– Opportunities• Old Towne
Redevelopment• Palisene
– Challenges• Affordability• Infill Opportunity
Economic Development in the Realms
East Valley: Young & Emerging
– Assets• ASU• Chandler/Price
Corridor• Mesa Airports
– Opportunities• SanTan Corridor• Original Core
Redevelopment– Challenges
• Available Land
Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs– Assets
• Phoenix Regional Airport• 1-10 and I-8
– Opportunities• Land, Land, Land• Intermodel Hub of
Region– Challenges
• Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning
• Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson
Economic Development in the Realms
Foothills: Uptown– Assets
• Wealth• Resorts
– Opportunities• Oro Valley corridor• Marana
– Challenges• Connectivity to
Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor
Tucson Valley: Downtown– Assets
• UofA• Downtown Tucson
– Opportunities• Employment Center
serving all 4 Tucson realms
– Challenges• Transportation
Economic Development in the Realms
Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway
– Assets• I-19
– Opportunities• Transition center
between Mexico/US• I-19 connection
to/from Mexico
– Challenges• Connectivity to
other realms
San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged– Assets
• Fort Huachuca
– Opportunities• Transition center
between Mexico/US• I-10 connection to El
Paso
– Challenges• Connectivity to other
realms
Infrastructure
Population Growth=More Congestion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NorthernCorridor
Mid Corridor Tucson Valleyand Foothills
20022020
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region(in millions of miles)
Highway Projects in Sun Corridor
Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps
CANAMEX
Housing Units2010
Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north
Airports follow the people …
2010
PHX: 20 million passengers504,000 air carrier operations
TUC: 4 million passengers43,000 air carrier operations
Northern tier’s realms dominateSun Corridor aviation
Housing Units2010Housing Units2050
Pop. balance shifts south
2050
?
Where will the next PHX be?
Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model– Less complex, for passengers, industry– Better control of environmental issues – Requires authority
Los Angeles = reliever system– Redundancy– Complex airspace, connection, access– Shares economic burden, boom
Recent trends PHX = LAX
Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?
MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it Lack of connection between north, south,
Mid Increasing population pressure from Mid Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from
both north, south and Mid
And will rail be included?
Freeways/Highways:– Congestion—Central Corridor– Tucson must build highways– Need for increased planning between realms– Revenue challenge
Aviation– Current population imbalance drives reliever system,
LAX style– Southward population shift may demand regional
airport in Mid-Corridor– Regional airport, population pressure may push rail
effort
In and Out of the Sun Corridor
Environment and Open Space
Active Management Areas
AMA Annual Use
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
PrescottAMA
PhoenixAMA
PinalAMA
TucsonAMA
SantaCruzAMA
AMA Annual Use (acre-feet)
Sun Corridor: Water
Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure
Salt River Project watershed
Central Arizona Project
Groundwater
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Source: CAP
WestValley
NortheastValley
EastValley
TucsonValley
SantaCruz
Valley
SanPedroValley
CAP Annual Permitted Recharge Capacity (acre-feet)
*The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and Foothills realms have no pumping stations
Air Quality2004 Annual Daily Average
05
1015202530354045
Source: AZDEQ
Particle Matter less than 10 Microns
Open Space
Open Space
Environmental Impact Economic Impact Preservation of significant areas Quality of Life
Effective Open Space Conservation Local political and constituent support Strong state enabling legislation Healthy local economy Community’s public financing capacity
– Borrowing history– Bonding capacity– Degree of fiscal power and authority– Tax base
Open Space and the Realms
What Future?
Conclusions
General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing
Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed
for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation,
Environmental Pres. and Economic Development Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs
Some Measure of Autonomy But Realms also Need More Effective Integration
and Coordination
Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications Core Realms
– Infill and Redevelopment Favored Quarter Realms
– Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing Maturing Suburbs Realms
– Create Mixed Use Centers Emerging Exurban Realms
– Open Space Preservation
Next Steps
June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference
Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report